The Week in Review: Ten Questions the Breeders’ Cup Will Answer

Thoughts I had while perusing the pre-entries for what promises to be a terrific Breeders’ Cup?

  1. What are the chances that Swiss Skydiver is named Horse of the Year?

It now appears almost certain that Swiss Skydiver (Daredevil) will go in the GI Breeders’ Cup Distaff instead of the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic.

“At this point we are going in the Distaff unless there is a late defection from the Classic,” trainer Ken McPeek told reporters Saturday morning.

The Classic field is loaded, so running Swiss Skydiver in the Distaff, where she will likely be second choice behind Monomoy Girl (Tapizar),  is the logical choice. But will it cost Swiss Skydiver her best chance of being named Horse of the Year? It may and it may not.

Obviously, had she gone in the Classic and won the race she would have been an overwhelming pick for Horse of the Year. But what if she wins the Distaff? If all the top contenders fail to win the Classic, it will probably be enough. The better question is what will happen if Swiss Skydiver wins the Distaff and the Classic is won by one of the top choices and Horse-of-the-Year candidates like Improbable (City Zip), Authentic (Into Mischief) or Tiz the Law (Constitution)?  A strong case could still be made for Swiss Skydiver.

Her overall body of work, in an era where most top horses are babied, is remarkable. Her year began in January at Tampa Bay Downs and she hasn’t missed a beat since. The Breeders’ Cup will be her 10th start on the year and she has competed in every month on the calendar but April while running at nine different racetracks. Her accomplishments include a win over males in a Triple Crown race, the GI Preakness S. She may not be the best horse in training, but has any horse had a better, more complete year? That’s something voters will have to consider.

There is a precedent. In 2010, Blame (Arch) defeated Zenyatta (Street Cry {Ire}) in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and also won the GI Whitney H. and the GI Stephen Foster H. But Horse of the Year went to Zenyatta, her overall body of work on the year swaying enough voters. It could happen again.

  1. Are the figure-makers right about Princess Noor?

Princess Noor (Not This Time) was a seven-figure purchase at the 2-year-old sales, is undefeated and is trained by Bob Baffert. Those are the type of credentials that would normally make a horse a solid favorite in a Breeders’ Cup race for 2-year-olds. But her speed figures tell a different story. Her best Beyer number is a 79. If the Beyer numbers are right, she is considerably slower than several other horses in she will face in the GI Breeder’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

When it comes to the figures, Princess Noor will have to step it up to win the Juvenile Fillies. Can she? Are the numbers accurate? The Juvenile Fillies will have the answers.

  1. Does Wesley Ward have a lock on the Juvenile Turf Sprint?

Trainer Wesley Ward pre-entered 10 horses for the Juvenile Sprint, an unprecedented show of depth. With some horses pre-entered for other races and some others not selected into the field, Ward won’t run all 10. But his plan of attack., dominating the entry box, may well pay off. He won the Juvenile Turf Sprint last year with Four Wheel Drive (American Pharoah), one of three starters he had in the race.

  1. How good is Jackie’s Warrior?

Jackie’s Warrior (Maclean’s Music) hasn’t got much hype, which is a bit surprising. No one has come close to him in his four career starts and another blowout victory in the Juvenile would certainly stamp him as an exciting prospect for next year’s GI Kentucky Derby. The Breeders’ Cup should also provide him with an opportunity to prove he can win when facing pace pressure, something that didn’t happen in his wins in the GI Hopeful S. and the GI Champagne S.

  1. Is Nashville special?

Perhaps the most intriguing horse pre-entered for the Breeders’ Cup is Nashville (Speightstown), who is likely to go in the GI Breeders’ Cup Sprint. He has raced just twice and in nothing tougher than a first level allowance, but many are giving him a chance after a sensational start to his career. He’s won his two starts by a combined 21 1/4 lengths. His Beyer figure of 101 puts him right in the mix when compared to some of the more seasoned horses he will face.

The question is whether or not any horse with so little experience and seasoning can win a Breeders’ Cup race. If Nashville overcomes those obstacles and wins we will be talking about a superstar.

  1. Will the Starship Jubilee Cinderella story continue?

One of  the best claims in decades, Starship Jubilee (Indy Wind) will look to pick up a Breeders’ Cup win to add to her remarkable career. She was pre-entered in both the GI Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf and the GI Breeders’ Cup Mile. The first preference is the Filly & Mare Turf.

Way back in 2017, she was claimed for $16,000 off of Jorge Navarro, who had her for just one start. Fast forward to the present and she has earned over $2 million and has beaten males in the GI Woodbine Mile, one of 12 stakes wins for the Canadian-based mare. This will be the toughest assignment of her career, but she has the credentials to win whatever Breeders’ Cup race trainer Kevin Attard puts her in.

  1. How will the many layoff horses do?

The idea of training a horse up to the Breeders’ Cup without any recent preps has become more and more popular each year. But does it work? A handful of top horses who haven’t raced in a while will help answer that question.

Among the pre-entries, there were 26 horses who will come into the Breeders’ Cup with a rest of at least two months. One of the most extreme examples is Vekoma (Candy Rde {Arg}), who has not started since winning the GI Metropolitan H. July 4 in what was just his third start on the year. Then there’s Oleksandra (Aus) (Animal Kingdom), who was pre-entered in the GI Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint and hasn’t started since winning the GI Jaipur S. June 20.

If the layoff horses thrive, look for even more trainers to skip important fall preps in the future so they can have a “fresh” horse for the Breeders’ Cup.

  1. How many races will Brad Cox win?

With the possible exception of Bob Baffert, nobody is holding a stronger hand for the Breeders’ Cup than Brad Cox, who didn’t win his first Grade I race until 2018. Perhaps no trainer has ever come so far so fast. In a group led by Monomoy Girl and GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile starter Essential Quality (Tapit), Cox has pre-entered nine horses, most of them serious contenders in their races.

  1. Is Uni back?

Uni (GB) (More Than Ready) will attempt to win the Mile for the second straight year, but comes into this year’s edition with some puzzling form. She started off the year with a third-place finish in the GI Just A Game S. and then a seventh-place showing in the GI Fourstardave H. Both, for a mare of her quality, were rather lackluster efforts.

She looked much better in her most recent start, winning the GI First Lady S. But the Beyer numbers say she’s not the same horse this year. She came into the 2019 Mile off of successive Beyer numbers of 104 and 105. Her best number this year was the 99 she got in the First Lady,

  1. Did Bill Mott make the right call with Frank”s Rockette?

Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott is going against conventional wisdom and is ready to run Frank’s Rockette (Into Mischief) against the boys in the Sprint rather than against fillies in the GI Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. That’s a bold move from a Hall of Fame trainer who is convinced that his horse prefers the Sprint distance of six furlongs to the Filly & Mare Sprint distance of seven furlongs. Another factor is the competition in the Filly & Mare Sprint. With Gamine (Into Mischief), Serengeti Empress (Alternation), Speech (Mr. Speaker) and Venetian Harbor (Munnings), it’s no easy spot.

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Tiz the Law Completes Classic Preparations at Keeneland

Sackatoga Stables’ GI Belmont S. winner and GI Kentucky Derby runner-up Tiz the Law (Constitution) capped off his serious work ahead of next Saturday’s GI Breeders’ Cup Classic with a five-furlong breeze at Keeneland Saturday morning.

With his regular work rider Heather Smullen in the irons, the New York-bred drilled five furlongs in :59.20 and galloped out an extra eighth of a mile in 1:12.20 (video).

“I saw just what I wanted. He went perfectly,” said trainer Barclay Tagg who will send out his 11th Breeders’ Cup starter next weekend. “We wanted him to go in :59 and he went in :59.20, so it was just right.”

Tiz the Law will be making his first start since dropping a 1 1/4-length decision at the hands of Authentic in the Sept. 5 Kentucky Derby and was an early arrival at Keeneland Oct. 18. Saturday’s work was his second locally, having breezed three-quarters of a mile in 1:13.20 Oct. 23.

“I thought he needs to get a good feel of this track (because) he has never run over it,” Tagg said of the plan to ship in the colt on the early side. “He has to run against older horses; it is going to be a tough race. “I have a super-duper crew and everything has gone right. We pay attention to the horses. We carry 30 horses at the most and try to get the best out of what we got, and every now and then we get a good one.”

Hronis Racing’s Higher Power (Medaglia d’Oro) has been on the grounds at Keeneland since early October and also tuned up for the Classic Saturday with a strong five-furlong work that was timed in :58.80, with a six-furlong gallop-out in 1:11.60 (video).

“I liked the way he came back from it,” said former jockey Juan Leyva, who serves as assistant to trainer John Sadler and who rode Musical Romance (Concorde’s Tune) to an upset victory in the 2011 GI Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. “He was blowing a little bit but not out of this world. His level of fitness has really progressed here.”

Gary Barber, Wachtel Stable and Swilcan Stables’ Vequist (Nyquist) arrived into Lexington from Philadelphia this past Monday and geared up for her start in next Friday’s GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies by zipping a half-mile in :47.20 for trainer Butch Reid (video). The 9 1/2-length winner of the GI Spinaway S. at Saratoga Sept. 6, the dark bay was a latest second to the impressive Dayoutoftheoffice (Into Mischief) in the GI Frizette S. at Belmont Oct. 6.

“I think a work over the track is very important and that is why we came when we did,” Reid said. “She had three or four good gallops and the work was fine. She did work at Saratoga [before the Spinaway] but didn’t before the Frizette because Belmont is just up the road from Philadelphia.”

Reid, who won the 2011 GII Breeders’ Cup Marathon with Afleet Again (Afleet Alex), said that Joel Rosario will have the mount Friday.

Monomoy Girl Headlines Busy Morning at CD…

The Saturday morning worktab across Interstate 64 at Churchill was equally busy at it was at Keeneland, with no fewe than 27 Breeders’ Cup pre-entered horses getting in their final serious work.

The two females that will vie for favoritism in Saturday’s GI Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff were the marquee names on a chilly Louisville morning. Monomoy Girl (Tapizar) was one of a half-dozen workers for trainer Brad Cox, and the 2018 GI Breeders’ Cup Distaff heroine tuned up with a steady five-furlong work that was timed in 1:01 flat. With Florent Geroux up and galloping in the company of GI Dirt Mile hopeful Owendale (Into Mischief), Monomoy Girl went in fractions of :12.80, :24.60, :37 and :48.40 before pulling up six furlongs in 1:14.40 (video).

“She’s a champion mare and really a horse of a lifetime,” said Geroux, winner of four other Breeders’ Cup races in addition to the Distaff. “She’s a future Hall of Famer with her resume. The speed figures show she is a little bit faster this year than her 3-year-old year.”

Swiss Skydiver (Daredevil), last-start winner of the GI Preakness S., breezed five-eighths of a mile in 1:00 flat in :24.60, :36.40 and :48.20 before galloping out six furlongs in 1:13.20 (video). While trainer Ken McPeek and owner Peter Callahan still have some work to do, Swiss Skydiver is likely to take up her spot against her peers on Breeders’ Cup Saturday.

“At this point we’re going Distaff unless there’s a late defection from the Classic,” McPeek told pool reporters Saturday morning. “We had a chance to look at not only the regular past performances but all the Ragozin numbers and that’s what we’re doing.”

McPeek says Swiss Skydiver has been ticking right along and is pleased with what he saw on the track Saturday morning.

“She busted out 12s,” he said. “[Jockey] Robby [Albarado] really does have her number right now, he’s got her in nice rhythm out there and knows how she feels under him. I think we’re well loaded and we’ve got her right on even keel.”

McPeek, still in search of a maiden Breeders’ Cup victory, also sent out GI Darley Alcibiades S. romper Simply Ravishing (Laoban) to work five-eighths in 1:00 flat. She and Swiss Skydiver worked on their own.

Tom’s d’Etat (Smart Strike) will enter the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic with just three starts under his belt this season and will be having his first run since a troubled third to Improbable (City Zip) in the GI Whitney S. at Saratoga in early August. The dean of the field at age seven, the G M B Racing runner breezed a very easy four furlongs in :50.40 Saturday morning.

“We really just wanted to go out there and stretch his legs,” said trainer Al Stall, Jr. “It was just get him around there, save a lot of energy and come out of it nice and just be ready for Saturday.”

Bell’s the One (Majesticperfection) may lack the star power, even with her defeat of Serengeti Empress (Alternation) in the GI Derby City Distaff Sept. 5, but the 4-year-old continues to thrive and worked a smooth half-mile in :47 3/5 at Churchill Downs Saturday morning.

“She did just what we wanted, just wanted an easy half and did it very easily and we’re set to go,” trainer Neil Pessin told pool reporter Alicia Wincze Hughes.”

The defection and subsequent retirement of Bellafina (Quality Road) could make life more difficult for Bell’s the One, in Pessin’s estimation.

“I don’t know if anyone is fast enough to go with Serengeti,” he opined. “Bellafina was, she laid right off her. Venetian Harbor (Munnings) and Gamine (Into Mischief) are speed horses, but they’ve never gone faster than :45 in their lives and Serengeti can go :43 3/5. If they go :44 and two or three, that sets it up better for Serengeti than for us. But we’re doing good, my filly is going to run her race and hopefully we can catch them at the end.”

Three of Bob Baffert’s top Breeders’ Cup contenders put in their final breezes ahead of their respective World Championship races at Santa Anita Saturday morning.

GI Kentucky Derby hero Authentic (Into Mischief) covered five panels in :59.60 (7/53) (video) ahead of the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic. The ‘TDN Rising Star’ was last seen finishing second to GI Breeders’ Cup Distaff-bound Swiss Skydiver (Daredevil) in the GI Preakness S. Oct. 3.

“He was out there doing his thing,” Baffert told the TDN when reached by phone. “He always works alone, him and Improbable. They are both very willing. He bounced out of the Preakness really well and his last two works were pretty strong. He is about as ready as I can have him. I really like the way he is coming into this race.”

Fellow BC Classic contender Maximum Security (New Year’s Day) also breezed five furlongs in Arcadia Saturday, stopping the clock in 1:00.60 (14/53) (video). Winner of the GI TVG Pacific Classic Aug. 22, the bay was second to his stablemate Improbable (City Zip)–who is scheduled to work Sunday–in the GI Awesome Again S. Sept. 26.

“He went well,” Baffert said of Maximum Security. “He is the lazier type [in his breezes], but he gets enough out of his works. He looks great. He will be right there.”

‘TDN Rising Star’ Gamine (Into Mischief) clocked the fastest five-furlong work of the Baffert trio, covering the distance in :59.40 (2/53) (video). An ultra impressive winner of both the GI Longines Acorn S. and GI Longines Test S., the bay was last seen finishing third in the GI Longines Kentucky Oaks Sept. 4 and will cut back in trip for the GI Breeders’ Cup F/M Sprint S.

“Gamine looked fantastic,” Baffert said. “She just sat there with another horse and when he asked her to pick it up, she just went boom. She has matured and just looks really good coming into this race. She has been on the lead and she makes the lead because she is brilliant on her own. But, she is not a speed crazy type of horse. I can see she is on top of her game.”

Baffert also offered a comment on GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies contender and ‘TDN Rising Star’ Princess Noor (Not This Time), who breezed five panels in :59.80 (3/43) in Arcadia Friday.

“She worked yesterday. She looks great,” Baffert said. “On paper, her numbers don’t stack up to those other fillies, but she has done everything here in a hand ride. I think she is special. The thing about the Breeders’ Cup is you can brag all you want, but when the gate comes open, the separation begins. That is the beauty of the Breeders’ Cup. That’s why they have it. The good horses, they separate themselves.”

Baffert’s Breeders’ Cup contingent will fly to Keeneland Tuesday for the Nov. 6-7 World Championships.

Another Hall of Famer sent out a BC-bound Saturday morning in Arcadia with GI Breeders’ Cup Turf runner United (Giant’s Causeway) covering six panels in 1:15 (1/2) (video) for Richard Mandella.

Pletcher Pair Take To Belmont Main Track…

Trainer Todd Pletcher was on hand to see the final Breeders’ Cup works for Halladay (War Front) and Valiance (Tapit) Saturday morning on a brisk Long Island morning.

Halladay, unraced since wiring the field in the GI Fourstardave H. at Saratoga Aug. 22, clocked :49.21 (video) for his four-furlong breeze over the main track. It was the third work for Halladay since having to be scratched from the GI Shadwell Mile S. Oct. 3 with a hind-leg infection.

“I was happy we were able to get it in today. The track dried out pretty nicely considering all of the rain we’ve had,” Pletcher said. “Halladay was a touch keen early on. He went off a little quick but then he relaxed, settled quickly, finished up strong and galloped out well. I was happy with that.”

Also working by her lonesome was GI Juddmonte Spinster S. upsetter Valiance, who stopped the clock in :49 flat (video).

“Valiance maintains form really well. Not only was her work good, but she galloped out well. She seems to be doing as well as she can at the moment,” Pletcher said.

Luis Saez has the call on both horses in the GI Breeders’ Cup Mile and GI Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff, respectively.

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Monomoy Girl, Swiss Skydiver Among 27 Pre-Entries Working At Churchill Downs

With the 2020 Breeders' Cup World Championships one week away, 27 pre-entered horses logged their final breezes Saturday morning at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., prior to shipping to Keeneland for the two-day event that runs Friday and Saturday.

Below is the full list of Breeders' Cup horses that worked on Saturday at Churchill Downs:

Horse Work (splits/gallop out) Workmate Trainer Race
Arklow 4F :49 (:12, :24.20, :36.40/1:02) Brad Cox Turf
Beau Recall 4F :50.40 (:25.60, :37.80/1:03.60) Shared Sense Brad Cox Mile
Bell's the One 4F: :47.60 (:24/1:00.60) Grove Daddy Neil Pessin F&M Sprint
By My Standards 5F :59.80 (12.40, :24.20, :35.80/1:12.60) Bret Calhoun Classic
Casa Creed 4F :47.20 (:12, :23.20, :35.40/1:00.20) Harvey's Lil Goil Bill Mott Mile
Crazy Beautiful 5F 1:01 (:12.40, :24.40, :36.40/1:14) Kenny McPeek Juv. Fillies
Factor This 4F :48.80 (:12.20, :23.60) Brad Cox Mile
Global Campaign 5F 1:00.40 (:36.40/1:14) She Love Me Stan Hough Classic
Got Stormy 4F :48.80 (:12, :23.60, :36.40) Mark Casse Turf Sprint
Harvey's Lil Goil 4F :47.20 (:12, :23.20, :35.40/1:00.20) Casa Creed Bill Mott Filly & Mare Turf
Hog Creek Hustle 4F :47.80 (:11.40, :35.40/1:01.40) Vickie Foley Sprint
Knicks Go 4F :48.20 (:12.20, :24, :35.80/1:01.60) Brad Cox Dirt Mile
Lady Kate 4F :48.20 (:12.20, :24, :35.80/1:01.60) Mo Zone Eddie Kenneally Distaff
MonomoyGirl 5F 1:01 (:12.80, :24.60, :37, :48.40/1:14.40) Owendale Brad Cox Distaff
Mr Freeze 4F :50.40 (:13.20, :25.60/1:03.40) Dale Romans Dirt Mile
Mr. Money 4F :48.60 (:24.20, :36.60/1:01.80) Bret Calhoun Dirt Mile
Owendale 5F 1:01.20 (:12.60, :24.80, :48.60/1:14.40) MonomoyGirl Brad Cox Dirt Mile
Sally's Curlin 4F :48.60 Dale Romans F&M Sprint
Sconsin 4F :48.80 (:37/1:01.40, 1:15) Greg Foley F&M Sprint
Silver Dust 4F :49 (:12.60, :24.80, :37.20/1:02.60, 1:15.20 Bret Calhoun Dirt Mile
Simply Ravishing 5F 1:00 (:11.80, :35/1:14) Kenny McPeek Juv. Fillies
Swiss Skydiver 5F 1:00 (:24.60, :36.40, :48.20/1:13.20) Kenny McPeek Distaff/Classic
Texas Wedge 4F :49.80 (:24.40/1:03.80) Peter Miller Turf Sprint
Title Ready 4F :48.20 (:23.20/1:02.40) Dallas Stewart Classic
Tom's d'Etat 4F :50.40 (:25/1:03.60) Al Stall Jr. Classic
War of Will 4F :48.20 (24/1:00.40) Mark Casse Dirt Mile
Whitmore 4F :48.80 (:11.60, :23.20/1:03) Unnamed (out of Famous Lady) Ron Moquett Sprint

Saturday was another busy morning for Brad Cox's barn as he worked six of nine contenders including $2-million Distaff (G1) likely favorite Monomoy Girl.

“I hate to sound cliché but it was another awesome morning for all of these horses,” Cox added. “Most of the serious preparation was done last week but these works still matter to make sure each horse is in top shape prior to the event.”

Jockey Florent Geroux was aboard Monomoy Girl for her final breeze prior to the Breeders' Cup as she worked alongside $1 million Dirt Mile (GI) contender Owendale. Monomoy Girl was one of six horses Geroux breezed Saturday at Churchill Downs.

“She's a champion mare and really a horse of a lifetime,” Geroux said. “She's a future Hall of Famer with her résumé. The speed figures show she is a little bit faster this year than her 3-year-old year.”

The only remaining Breeders' Cup contenders to work at Churchill Downs are Just Might and Manny Wah. Both will work on Sunday, according to their respective trainers.

Saturday finalized the works for trainer Bret Calhoun's trio of By My Standards, Mr. Money and Silver Dust. Jockey Gabriel Saez worked Allied Racing Stable and Spendthrift Farm's Dirt Mile (G1) contender Mr. Money at 5:30 a.m. (all times Eastern) prior to breezing $6-million Classic (G1) hope By My Standards at 5:45 a.m. Jockey Adam Beschizza worked Tom Durant's Dirt Mile contender Silver Dust at 7:30 a.m.

“(By My Standards and Mr. Money) both worked awesome this morning,” Saez said. “By My Standards was supposed to be in about 1:01 but I couldn't slow him down. He's just doing really, really good. Mr. Money got over the ground great again, too.”

By My Standards was one of four Classic contenders to work on Saturday. Another was Sagamore Farm and WinStar Farm's $500,000 Woodward (G1) winner Global Campaign. Trained by Stan Hough, Global Campaign returned from a nine-month freshening in April at Gulfstream Park and sports a 3-for-4 record in 2020.

“In the Fountain of Youth he really tore his quarter as bad as I've seen it,” Hough said. “That set up for a series of foot problems after that. He's very talented and I think we're getting to a place where he can really show it.”

Other Classic contenders to work Saturday were Charles Fipke's longshot Title Ready and G M B Racing's Grade I winner Tom's d'Etat.

“We are ready to go for the big money,” trainer Dallas Stewart said of Title Ready. “He's a longshot but he will be coming with his run. We'll see what happens but we'll be ready.”

Star 3-year-old filly Swiss Skydiver was one of three Kenny McPeek trainees to work Saturday morning. Jockey Robby Albardo was once again aboard for the work on the Preakness (GI) winner. She pre-entered both the Distaff and Classic and McPeek is leaning to the Distaff barring any major defections in the Classic.

Entries for all 14 Breeders' Cup races will take place on Monday. There are 43 horses from Churchill Downs expected to be entered. All horses are required to be on the grounds Wednesday. Many local contenders are set to arrive on Monday including Cox's nine-horse squad.

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Breeders’ Cup Presents The News Minute: Horsemen’s Interest In World Championships Undeterred By Pandemic

Earlier this year there were concerns about how the coronavirus pandemic would affect the 37th running of the Breeders' Cup World Championships, specifically whether the interest level would be as high among horsemen, especially those from overseas.

Those concerns were cast aside today when Breeders' Cup unveiled the lists of pre-entered horses for the 14 championship races to be run at Keeneland in Lexington, Ky., on Nov. 6-7. The 201 horses pre-entered represents the second highest number ever and the 38 international horses pre-entered is second only to the 41 pre-entered in 2018 when the Breeders' Cup was at Churchill Downs.

Paulick Report publisher Ray Paulick reviews the pre-entries, race schedules and long-range weather forecast in today's Breeders' Cup News Minute.

Watch the Breeders' Cup News Minute below:

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