The Haiku Handicapper Presented By Form2Win: 2021 Kentucky Derby

Time to analyze the 2021 Kentucky Derby field, in post position order, in the form of Haiku; a Japanese poem of 17 syllables, in three lines of five, seven, and five.

To read previous editions of The Haiku Handicapper, click here.

#1 – Known Agenda
A nightmare post draw
Torpedoes a true win threat
Still play underneath

#2 – Like the King
His road to Churchill
Traversed over Tapeta
Hard to envision

#3 – Brooklyn Strong
A last-minute call
When does that idea work?
Won't be on tickets

#4 – Keepmeinmind
Soph slump in effect
Likes the track, but that feels like
A lifetime ago

#5 – Sainthood
Recovered nicely
After Turfway donnybrook
He'll pass a few late

#6 – O Besos
Won't be knocked around
He'll earn his graded stakes due
In the months to come

#7 – Mandaloun
Early momentum
Was doused by a Fair Grounds dud
Rebounds don't win here

#8 – Medina Spirit
Couldn't seal the deal
Once he got the starting gig
On Baffert's depth chart

#9 – Hot Rod Charlie
The parts appear there
Just not sure how much I trust
The Fair Grounds prep route

#10 – Midnight Bourbon
Last two running lines
Have the same end: Outfinished
Leave him on the shelf

#11 – Dynamic One
Rapid improvement
Might not take home the roses
But wait for the Spa

#12 – Helium
Has seen Thanksgiving
As much as he's seen a race
Since mid-October

#13 – Hidden Stash
A late-stage grinder
Can't hang with mid-tier hopefuls
Not a potent blend

#14 – Essential Quality
The unbeaten champ
Does little else but ace tests
Why would he stop now?

#15 – Rock Your World
Turf-to-dirt success
We'll know all we need to know
After the first turn

#17 – Highly Motivated
Nearly nipped the champ
A breakout win's imminent
Worth a small “win” share

#18 – Super Stock
Surprised at Oaklawn
Breaking his “check-getter” cred
Can't get too enthused

#19 – Soup and Sandwich
An uncommon sight
An Into Mischief that's gray
Might grab a mouthful

#20 – Bourbonic
Long-priced Wood winner
Needs the home stretch seas to part
Tough “win” strategy

Prediction
Champion retains
“Quality” resume grows
Then nine, seventeen

The post The Haiku Handicapper Presented By Form2Win: 2021 Kentucky Derby appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Essential Quality Tops Loaded Derby Worktab Saturday

Godolphin's Essential Quality (Tapit) headlined a quintet of hopefuls that put in their final major works at Churchill Downs Saturday morning ahead of next weekend's Run for the Roses. Also working on an overcast morning were Juddmonte Farms' Mandaloun (Into Michief), Klaravich Stables' Highly Motivated (Into Mischief), Erv Woolsey and Keith Asmussen's Super Stock (Dialed In) and Fern Circle Stables and Three Chimneys Farm's King Fury (Curlin).

Heading the Brad Cox Derby team, last season's juvenile champ worked five furlongs in 1:00.40. With exercise rider Edvin Vargas aboard, the likely Derby favorite worked five furlongs in 1:00.20 outside of fellow Godolphin-owned Spa City. The duo began their work at the half-mile pole through splits of :12.80, :24.80 and :48.20. The recent GII Toyota Blue Grass S. winner completed a six-furlong gallop out in 1:14.60, according to Churchill Downs clocker John Nichols.

“We keep radios on all of our riders, so that way, we can stay in contact throughout the work,” Cox said. “Galloping out around the turn, I got on the radio to Edvin and told him not to let him go too strongly. Spa City is a horse we used as a workmate for Essential Quality the last three or four works. He's a good matchup for him because he's a good work horse.”

Shortly after Essential Quality completed his work, Mandaloun, with Florent Geroux in the saddle, worked five furlongs in 1:00 outside of recent Keeneland allowance winner Joe Frazier. The GII Risen Star S. scorer started about six lengths behind his stablemate and completed swift opening fractions of :23.20, :35.60 and :47.60. Mandaloun galloped out strongly around the first turn through a six-furlong time of 1:12.60 and completed seven furlongs in 1:27.20.

“Going into the pole, Joe Frazier was a little bit strong and I didn't want to ask Mandaloun to catch up to him too much,” Geroux said. “I didn't want to get him in the bit too early, so we started six or seven lengths behind but going around the turn and he really picked up the pace. He has a big stride to him and was full of himself getting over this track.”

King Fury put in his final workout for the Kentucky Derby, with jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. aboard during the period reserved for training horses pointed to the Derby and Oaks. King Fury worked a solo five furlongs in 1:00.20. He reeled off splits of :12.80, :25.20, :36.80, and :48.40. Hernandez Jr. guided him out to 1:12.80 for six furlongs and 1:26.60 for seven furlongs.

“Everything was good,” Hernandez Jr. said. “He did it with his ears up and he seems like he's a happy horse. He's got a little confidence in himself coming out of the Lexington. He's coming into the Derby with some confidence.”

The GIII Lexington S. winner moved up to No. 20 on the points leaderboard following the defections of Hozier (Pioneerof the Nile) and Dream Shake (Twirling Candy).

“We weren't fretting about it too much,” said trainer Ken McPeek. “It was all up to a higher power, if we didn't get in, then [the plan] was to go on to the [May 15] GI Preakness S. [at Pimlico]. Those things are out of our control. What other people do with their horses, it's not something we spend a lot of energy on. We would have worked him the same today, if he was going to Baltimore or if he was staying here.”

Trained by Chad Brown, Highly Motivated went five furlongs in 1:00.40 under exercise rider Peter Roman immediately after the break. Runner up to Essential Quality in Keeneland's Apr. 3 GII Toyota Blue Grass S. and eagerly pulled away from stablemate Southern District, while galloping out six furlongs in 1:14.20 and seven furlongs in 1:28.40.

“I thought he breezed really well and it went exactly how I wanted,” Brown said. “I wasn't afraid to give him a good solid breeze and he did it and he did it well, with some in reserve too. He got over the track well, which I really wanted to see. He had been galloping well over it, but really, when you get to see a breeze, you can see more, obviously.”

Also among yesterday Churchill workers, Super Stock, who hit the track at 5:32 a.m., went five furlongs in 1:01.20. The Steve Asmussen trainee worked in company with 4-year-old stablemate Max Player, galloping out six furlongs in 1:14.60, and seven furlongs in 1:28.

“He went perfect and he gave us exactly what we were looking for,” Asmussen said. “I think that the horse's confidence level is at an all-time high, he goes really well over this racetrack, and I couldn't feel any better about him going into the Derby.”

At Keeneland, Like the King worked five furlongs in 1:01. The move was the ninth fastest of 28 at the distance. Working in company with the 4-year-old Artie's Princess, the 2020 Sovereign Award winner as Canada's champion female sprinter, Like the King started two lengths in back and edged clear at the wire, galloping out six furlongs in 1:15.40 with Julio Garcia aboard.

“He was nice and smooth down the lane,” said Wesley Ward. “He had that filly measured, as he did last week. He looked a lot smoother this week than last week. Last week, he was kind of on the bridle. [Today] he was a lot more fluid.”

He added, “He's a very difficult horse to gallop. He had a really, really strong last part of his gallop [Friday] when a couple of workers came inside of him. So, I wasn't looking to go :59 or anything today.”

Ward indicated the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks winner will jog Sunday morning and gallop Monday and Tuesday before vanning to Churchill after training.

West Coast Workers

At Santa Anita, Hronis Racing and David Talla's Rock Your World (Candy Ride {Arg}) worked five furlongs in :59.20. The unbeaten GI Santa Anita Derby winner went together with winner Best Chance and outfinished him by a couple of lengths, according to trainer, John Sadler

“He breezed very well,” said Sadler, who is seeking is first win in the Run for the Roses. “He looked good, nice and smooth. It was kind of a repeat of last week. We didn't want to do too much because he's right where he wants to be already. We're happy.”

'Rocks' is expected to ship to Kentucky Sunday and will jog Monday after arriving at Churchill Downs. He will gallop Tuesday and Wednesday, “but the schedule could be tinkered with slightly depending on the weather,” Sadler said.

Working before Santa Anita's first race Saturday, Roadrunner Racing, Boat Racing and Strauss Bros Racing's Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow) went six furlongs 1:13.68 under Flavien Prat, who will accompany him next Saturday at Churchill Downs.

Accompanied by stablemate Chasing Fame, Hot Rod Charlie started one length behind his work partner at the five furlong pole, from where he tracked his company to the top of the lane,  assumed command and worked past the wire to the seven furlong pole through splits of 24.46, 48.94 and 1:00.90.

“I loved the way he went,” said Prat, who was also aboard for a six furlong work in 1:14.20 at Santa Anita Apr. 17. “He went really easy and he went a solid three quarters, with a good gallop out. I loved his energy and the way he went by his stablemate.”

Santa Anita Timer Dane Nelson had the GII Louisiana Derby winner galloping out seven furlongs in 1:27.43.

“I love the fresh track and not having to worry about traffic,” said trainer Doug O'Neill, who won the Kentucky Derby in 2012 with I'll Have Another and in 2016 with Nyquist. “I'm real happy with the way he breezed. We're all set, looking forward to getting him to Churchill and finding out what our post position will be on Tuesday.”

Hot Rod Charlie will be flown to Louisville early Sunday morning and will gallop and/or jog throughout the week over the Churchill Downs main track.

Also posting his final Derby tightener, Gary Barber's Get Her Number (Dialed In) worked five furlongs in 1:02 at San Luis Rey Training Center with Peter Miller on-hand for the work.

“He went out in 1:14 and it was a nice move,” Miller said via text from the facility, which is about 30 miles northeast of Del Mar racetrack.

Miller indicated a final decision would be made Saturday regarding the colt's participation in Saturday's Classic.

The post Essential Quality Tops Loaded Derby Worktab Saturday appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Taking Stock: Breeders Robertson, Gonzalez Elevate Dialed In’s Profile

Somewhere on the grounds of OBS on Tuesday, the two unacquainted men who bred Dialed In's (Mineshaft) only two Grade l winners to date–Gl Kentucky Derby-bound Get Her Number and Super Stock–quite likely passed each other unaware of the other in that random way of the universe that plays with degrees of separation.

I assume this because I was on the phone with Phil Robertson, who co-bred Get Her Number with his wife Brenda, when Pedro “Pete” Gonzalez, the co-breeder of Super Stock with his grandson P.J. Gonzalez, phoned me. I was finishing up my call with Robertson, who was three hips away from selling a 2-year-old, and immediately returned the Gonzalez call when I hung up with Robertson.

The first thing I noticed when Gonzalez started speaking was a distinct background voice that had also been present in my call with Robertson. For all I know, they could have been standing within feet of each other when speaking to me about why they sent their respective mares to Darby Dan's Dialed In in 2017.

Of course, there was every reason to send a mare to Dialed In that spring because the stallion, who'd stood his first four seasons for $7,500, had dramatically defeated Lane's End's Union Rags (Dixie Union) for the champion freshman sire title on the last day of the year, in the very same race at that–the $100,000 Gin Talking S. at Laurel. Dialed In's Ms Locust Point won the race, earning $60,000, while Union Rags's daughter Aiden's Rag Doll finished fifth. The margin separating the two stallions had been only $35,194 before the race. It was a victory for David versus Goliath, because Union Rags had been syndicated for more than $12 million and stood for a $35,000 fee.

Breeders came in droves to Dialed In in 2017 despite the doubling of his fee to $15,000, and among the 231 mares bred to the stallion that year were Robertson's homebred Bernstein (Storm Cat) mare Fancier, the dam of Get Her Number, and Gonzalez's homebred Super Girlie, the daughter of Closing Argument (Successful Appeal) who produced Super Stock.

Robertson and Gonzalez are small breeders with a lot in common–the former owns 15 mares while the latter has seven–and both have small farms, Robertson's in Versailles, Gonzalez's in Ocala. Roberston is retired from the construction business and shuttles between his lake home in Granbury, Texas, and the Kentucky farm, while Gonzalez, who's also retired from the construction business, drives back and forth from his base in Miami to Ocala to check on his stock. Both men are passionate about breeding and are also exceedingly polite, and if they'd bumped into each other at OBS, I have no doubt that they'd have had a heck of a conversation about horses, construction, and the thrill of having bred a horse slated for the Derby, by the same stallion as it turns out.

Dialed In

With two potential Derby starters, Dialed In joins Into Mischief, the hottest and most expensive sire in the country at a fee of $225,000, as the only two stallions with multiple runners intended for the Classic at this writing. However, Dialed In's two colts are Grade l winners whereas Into Mischief's three–Mandaloun, Highly Motivated, and Soup and Sandwich–have only one Grade ll win amongst them in graded company.

This is a terrifically complimentary comparison for the Darby Dan horse, who started as the favorite in the 2011 Derby after winning the Gl Florida Derby, a fixture that's turning out to be the premier sire-making race in the country with such alumni as Nyquist (Uncle Mo), Constitution (Tapit), Quality Road (Elusive Quality), Scat Daddy (Johannesburg), Empire Maker (Unbridled), and Harlan's Holiday (Harlan) in the recent past.

Altogether, Dialed In won three of seven starts and earned $941,936. He'd been bred by the partnership of W.S. Farish, Madeleine Pickens (previously married to Allen Paulson), and Skara Glen Stables, and he was purchased for $475,000 as a yearling at Fasig-Tipton Saratoga by Robert LaPenta's Whitehorse Stable, which has a penchant for A.P. Indy-line horses. Dialed In is from the immediate family of Paulson's champion filly Eliza (his second dam) and Gl Santa Anita Derby winner Dinard, and he was trained by Nick Zito in a come-from-behind style that's frequently associated with the best of Zito runners. It's not, however, the preferred front-running style that's popular with breeders and stud farms, and after Dialed In's eighth-place finish in the Derby and only two more combined starts after that in 2011 and 2012, the horse was somewhat forgotten and wasn't among the most sought-after stallion prospects for 2013, allowing Doug Cauthen and Darby Dan's Robert Hammond to secure him for stud duty to stand at John Phillips's historic nursery at a fee of $7,500.

A good-looking stallion standing 16.1 hands with plenty of substance to him, Dialed In has since defied the odds, much like Into Mischief in his early years when his stud fee once touched $7,500 before his first-crop runners took off. Dialed In started off hot, too, getting multiple Grade ll winner and Grade l-placed Gunnevera, who's earned $5.5 million, and five other black-type winners from his first crop. By the time Robertson and Gonzalez had contracted to send their mares to the stallion In in the spring of 2017, Gunnevera was well on the Classics trail. He finished seventh in the Derby but subsequently showed he handled a mile and a quarter when placing in the Gl Travers S., the Breeders' Cup Classic, and the Dubai World Cup, a good sign for Get Her Number and Super Stock in the Derby.

Gunnevera is one of 15 black-type winners for his sire through five crops (not including 2-year-olds of 2021), and his accomplishments from two to five helped Dialed In win the freshman sire championship and see a bump in his fee from $15,000 in 2017 to $25,000 in 2018 and 2019. However, by 2020 the stallion was down to $20,000, and this year he's serving mares for $15,000, which illustrates the difficulties stallions face with their second, third, and fourth crops as mare books get watered down after the first year at stud. This is particularly acute for horses standing for cheaper fees. Note that to date Dialed In has only three black-type winners from his second crop and just one from his third crop.

During these lean years, Dialed In nevertheless showed he could get quality runners, even if they weren't black-type winners. For instance, the 4-year-old Finnick the Fierce placed in a Grade ll race at two and last year was third in the Gl Arkansas Derby, the same race that Super Stock won two weeks ago for Steve Asmussen with Get Her Number a fast-closing fourth. Last year, Get Her Number, trained by Peter Miller, won the Gl American Pharoah S. at Santa Anita, becoming his sire's first top-level winner.

Grade l Breeders

Phil and Brenda Robertson have raced some good horses, including graded winners Reigning Court and Savorthetime with Asmussen, and they've bred some others, such as Group 2 winner Sander Camillo, a Dixie Union filly they'd sold as a yearling for $160,000 in 2005 that later sold to Godolphin as a broodmare prospect for the equivalent of $6.9 million at Tattersalls in 2007.

Phil Robertson didn't want to sell Get Her Number, which he did last year with Ciaran Dunne's Wavertree at OBS April for $45,000 to trainer Peter Miller. “He was always a good-looking colt. The sale was postponed to June last year with Covid,” Roberston said, “and with Covid and how uncertain things were with the economy, I just figured it was the right thing to do financially.”

The colt's dam, Fancier, had been bred and raised by the Robertsons and was a winner of three races from 10 starts, but “she was a mare that was hard to get pregnant. She wouldn't cycle right.” Her second dam was the Group 1-placed Irish River (Fr) mare Shy Princess, a half-sister to Gl Breeders' Cup Mile winner Opening Verse, and though her extended family was deep, her immediate family was light and her foals catalogued with two “blank dams,” a commercial kiss of death. On the advice of his veterinarian, Robertson had sold her in foal to Astern for $1,300 at Keeneland November the year before her son won his Grade l race.

Robertson said he'd sent the mare to Dialed In because “she was a tall, lighter mare with a lot of leg, and he was shorter and stockier. He had more substance, and she needed that.”

Pete Gonzalez sent his homebred mare Super Girlie, the dam of Super Stock and a winner of seven races from 39 starts and $121,728, to Dialed In mainly for pedigree reasons. “My mare mixes well with A.P. Indy and Storm Cat, which is how Dialed In is bred, and he has Mr. Prospector in the pedigree, and she's got Mr. Prospector, and I wanted to inbreed to Mr. Prospector. I love speed, and with A.P. Indy there is distance, but I wanted to get more speed for distance.”

Gonzalez and his grandson also bred Super Stock's Gl-placed half-sister Boujie Girl (Flashback), who Peter Miller purchased from the OBS April sale for $65,000 three years ago. Earlier, in 2012, Miller had purchased the Gl La Brea S. winner Heir Kitty (Wildcat Heir) from OBS April for $32,000, and Heir Kitty was produced from a half-sister to Super Girlie and was also bred by Pete Gonzalez, in partnership with Jorge Herrera.

Gonzalez sold Super Stock as a yearling at Keeneland September through Taylor Made for $70,000 to Keith Asmussen and Erv Woolsey. “He was a really nice yearling. My farm manager in Ocala, Ivan Gardea, prepped him early, and then I sent the colt to Ramiro Salazar at Phoenix Farm in Midway to get him ready for the sale. We thought he'd bring more,” Gonzalez said.

Super Girlie, who is based at Salazar's Phoenix Farm, has a yearling by Mendelssohn (Scat Daddy) and is in foal to Authentic (Into Mischief).

Gonzalez, a Cuban-American, has been breeding horses for 25 years and attributes his success to his wife, Georgelina. “I thank her for it all, and for always supporting me,” he said. “You know, when Super Stock won the Arkansas Derby, I became the first Cuban-American to breed the winner of that race. How do I know? I did the research.”

If Super Stock wins the Kentucky Derby, Gonzalez will have more research to do. If Get Her Number upsets the Classic, the Robertsons will get just compensation in historical prestige for culling his dam. And if either wins, Dialed In's profile will be elevated to a whole new level than the high plane it's on now, thanks to Robertson and Gonzalez.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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Essential Quality Retains His Lead In NTRA Top 3-Year-Old Poll

Undefeated Essential Quality, the likely favorite for the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve on May 1, remains at the top of this week's National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA) Top 3-Year-Old Poll.

Essential Quality, a striking gray Godolphin homebred, trained by Brad Cox, breezed five furlongs in 59.60 on Saturday morning at Churchill Downs. He is undefeated in five starts, including his most recent victory in the Grade 2 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 3. The Eclipse Award-winning two-year-old male of 2020 received 34 first-place votes and 373 points in this week's poll.

Hronis Racing and Talla Racing's Rock Your World, winner of the Grade 1 Runhappy Santa Anita Derby on April 3, retains second place. Trained by John Sadler, Rock Your World has one first-place vote and 286 points.

St. Elias Stable's Known Agenda, winner of the Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby on March 27 for two-time Kentucky Derby- winning trainer Todd Pletcher, has moved into third place with one first-place vote and 265 points, and has switched positions with Grade 2 TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby winner Hot Rod Charlie.

Trained by Doug O'Neill, who also has saddled two Kentucky Derby winners, Hot Rod Charlie has one first-place vote and 263 points. Klaravich Stables Inc.'s Highly Motivated, a game second to Essential Quality in the Blue Grass for trainer Chad Brown, rounds out the top five with 167 points.

Keith Asmussen and Erv Woolsey's Grade 1 Arkansas Derby winner Super Stock moves up one spot to No. 6 this week. Trained by Steve Asmussen, Super Stock has 138 points. Zedan Racing Stables Inc's Medina Spirit, who finished second to Rock Your World in the Santa Anita Derby, rises to seventh place with 114 points. Gary and Mary West's homebred Concert Tour, who was withdrawn from Kentucky Derby consideration over the weekend, drops to eighth place with 109 points. Life is Good, who is sidelined with an injury and will miss the Triple Crown, is in ninth place with one first-place vote and 75 points. Another Steve Asmussen runner, Winchell Thoroughbreds' Midnight Bourbon, second in the Louisiana Derby, is in 10th place with 52 points.

The racing world is still buzzing following last Saturday's rousing finish in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn Park, where St. George Stable's 5-year-old mare Letruska defeated two-time Eclipse Award-winner Monomoy Girl by a nose. Trained by Fausto Gutierrez, Letruska zoomed to sixth place in this week's National Thoroughbred Poll. Godolphin's 4-year-old Mystic Guide, winner of the Group 1 Dubai World Cup, maintains the No. 1 ranking with 29 first-place votes and 358 points. Charlatan, runner-up in the Group 1 Saudi Cup, retains second place with eight first-place votes and 330 points. Despite her defeat, Monomoy Girl (253 points) remains in third place, followed by Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup winner Knicks Go in fourth (231 points). Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Turf winner Colonel Liam moves up one spot to fifth place (191 points), and is followed by Letruska (183 points). Last year's Eclipse Award-winning female sprinter, Gamine, is in seventh place (99 points) followed by Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap winner Idol in eighth (86 points). After finishing third in the Apple Blossom, Swiss Skydiver is now in ninth place (78 points). She is followed by Grade 3 Count Fleet Handicap winner C Z Rocket in 10th place (49 points).

The NTRA Top Thoroughbred polls are the sport's most comprehensive surveys of experts. Every week eligible journalists and broadcasters cast votes for their top 10 horses, with points awarded on a 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 basis. All horses that have raced in the U.S., are in training in the U.S., or are known to be pointing to a major event in the U.S. are eligible for the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll. Voting in the Top Three-Year-Old Thoroughbred Poll concludes following the Belmont Stakes on June 5 and the Top Thoroughbred Poll is scheduled to be conducted through November 6.

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