stud fees | Horse Racing Free Tips

Taking Stock: Performance vs. Stud Fee for the Small Owner-Breeder

By the time a stallion has established himself at stud, his fee is usually determined by performance, not the hype that surrounds new horses when they first enter stud. There are, of course, many ways to measure performance, including progeny earnings (which determines placement on the General Sires list), percent of black-type winners to named foals, quality of runners, number of Grade l winners, etc.

There are seven thoroughly proven stallions that will stand for $150,000 or more in North America in 2021, and these elite horses–Into Mischief ($225,000), Tapit ($185,000), Uncle Mo ($175,000), Curlin ($175,000), Medaglia d’Oro ($150,000), War Front ($150,000), and Quality Road ($150,000)–more than make the grade whichever way you slice and dice statistics. For instance, this select group sires black-type winners from named foals at rates of between 7% to 12% (see accompanying charts), which is the gold standard nowadays in the era of big books. [Note: Younger stallions will have lower percentages because their 2-year-old crops will be a larger percentage of the whole.]

Each year as the breeding season rolls around, a dwindling number of smaller owner-breeders frequently ask us at Werk Thoroughbred Consultants to recommend the best proven stallions standing for $15,000 or less. These people, who once made up a larger percentage of owners, need sires with track records, because they race what they breed and have no room for error. A shiny new horse at $15,000 is unproven and too much of a gamble for them, whereas that same first-year horse might well be the choice for a commercial breeder shopping in that price range. It just so happens, however, that the types of stallions best suited for small homebreeders are inexpensively priced these days, not because they lack performance but because they tend to be old and are mostly ignored by a large swath of folks who breed primarily to sell. And it’s the young stallions that sell.

Old stallions, like old people, tend to be underappreciated in a climate that rewards youth.

In fact, older proven stallions that aren’t elite are frequently priced lower than they should be if performance itself were the sole criteria for fee determination, but with them it’s not. They are simply not fashionable, even if they once were.

For those of you who breed to race, I’ve listed in another chart 10 favorite older stallions that will stand next year for $15,000 or less, and they were chosen primarily because they satisfy two criteria aside from my preferences for them: they are (or were last year) ranked on TDN‘s General Sires List; and they get a minimum of 5% black-type winners from named foals, which is a rate close enough to rub shoulders with some of the elite sires standing for $150,000 or more, but at a significantly lower fee that makes them both attractive and affordable for homebreeders. This group can get you a horse good enough to play with the big boys. There are a few others I could have included–my apologies–but didn’t for space considerations.

Here they are by descending stud fee; statistics are for the Northern Hemisphere:

Midnight Lute ($15,000) – This son of Real Quiet at Hill ‘n’ Dale is ranked #12 on the General Sires List, which puts him ahead of both War Front and Quality Road this year, and note also that he’s one of the younger horses in this group with nine crops of racing age. He gets 5% black-type winners from named foals and has demonstrated the ability to sire runners of the highest class, such as Eclipse Award winner Midnight Bisou, one of the best fillies of her generation. Altogether, he’s sired 33 black-type winners and four Grade l winners, including 2020 Gamely S. winner Keeper Ofthe Stars.

Lemon Drop Kid ($15,000) – Through 17 crops of racing age, this well-bred son of Kingmambo has sired 7% black-type winners from foals, the same as his mate Quality Road at Lane’s End. Lifetime, he has 96 black-type winners, including nine Grade l winners, and he’s ranked #44 on the General Sires List this year with such horses as Canadian classic winner Belichick, Glll Ontario Derby winner Field Pass, and 7-year-old French Group 2 winner Red Verdon. In Japan, he’s represented by Godolphin-owned 2-year-old Lemon Pop, who won a non-black-type Kentucky Derby points race on Nov. 28 at Tokyo after winning his debut before that. Though he gets top-level turf and all-weather runners, his daughter Lemons Forever won the Grade l Kentucky Oaks on dirt and has since become a Kentucky Broodmare of the Year.

Mineshaft ($15,000) – A sire of 51 black-type winners through 14 crops–six at Grade l level, including $3.3 million earner Effinex and successful Darby Dan sire Dialed In–he stands at Lane’s End alongside Lemon Drop Kid and is a son of A.P. Indy. He’s at #55 on the General Sires List and is represented this year by Glll Canadian Derby winner Real Grace in what for him is a slow year. He gets 5% black-type winners from foals.

Sky Mesa ($12,500) – This son of Pulpit has sired 73 black-type winners and four Grade l winners through 14 crops, and it’s notable that he’s also the sire of three Canadian champions that aren’t on his list of Grade l winners. Last year, his 2-year-old daughter Perfect Alibi won the Gl Spinaway S., and this year he’s represented by two 3-year-old black-type winners, both of them graded placed. He gets 7% black-type winners from foals, is ranked #66 on the General Sires List, and stands at Three Chimneys.

Stormy Atlantic ($10,000) – The elder statesman of this group, he’s a son of Storm Cat at Hill ‘n’ Dale with 19 crops of racing age. Throughout his career, he’s maintained a 7% rate of black-type winners to foals and altogether has so far sired 103 black-type winners and seven Grade l winners (eight, if you count one in Argentina). His gelded son Stormy Liberal won the Gl Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint twice and was an Eclipse Award-winning turf male, while in Canada he’s had three champion juveniles and Horse of the Year Up With the Birds, also a Grade l winner in the U.S. Among his top performers this year are Grade ll winner Big Runnuer, a 5-year-old; Grade lll winner Neptune’s Storm, a 4-year-old who won a Grade ll race last year; and 7-year-old Stormy Antarctic, a previous Group 2 winner who was second in the G1 Prix d’Ispahan in France in July. Though he’s unranked on the General Sires List in 2020 (he was ranked last year), he consistently gets sound and durable runners with a high degree of class.

Midshipman ($7,500) – This son of Unbridled’s Song at Darley is the youngest horse here with only seven crops of racing age – the same as Quality Road. He’s #47 on the General Sires List and to date is represented by 28 black-type winners in the Northern Hemisphere, a rate of 6% to foals. Though he doesn’t have a NH Grade l winner yet, he has three in Brazil, one of which, Royal Ship (Brz), is Grade ll-placed in California this year. His leading earner to date is Grade lll winner and Grade l-placed Lady Shipman ($902,387), whose son Golden Pal won the Gll Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint this year.

Mizzen Mast ($7,500) – Based at Juddmonte, this son of Cozzene has eight Grade l winners to his credit (nine, if you include another in Peru) from 60 black-type winners, for a rate of 6% black-type winners from foals. One, Flotilla, is a Gl Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner and a French classic winner, taking the G1 Poule d’Essai des Pouliches at three. Another, Full Mast, is a Group 1 winner at two in France, while Sea Defence (also known as Giant Treasure) won a Group 1 at five in Hong Kong. His best-known runner, the mare Mizdirection, twice won the Gl Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, and in California he’s had the winners of such races as the Gl Hollywood Derby at 10 furlongs on turf; the Gl Charles Whittingham Memorial at 10 furlongs on turf; and the Gl Hollywood Gold Cup at 10 furlongs on all-weather, among other prestigious races. Yes, he’s a turf sire with his best runners, but note that his daughter Sailor’s Valentine won the Gl Ashland S. at Keeneland on dirt. He’s #74 on the General Sires List.

Silent Name (Jpn) (C$7,500) – This son of Sunday Silence stands in Canada at Adena Springs and is represented by 27 black-type winners, or 7% from foals, and he’s #83 on the General Sires List. He doesn’t have a Grade l winner yet in the Northern Hemisphere (he has one in Brazil), but his graded winners include several who have placed at the highest level, including Grade ll winners Silentio and Fanticola, plus listed winner Mr. Online. His current runners are headed by Grade ll winner Silent Poet, a 5-year-old.

Freud ($6,500) – A Storm Cat brother to Giant’s Causeway, he’s a New York-based sire at Sequel with enough proven form nationally to take him out of the regional ranks, though he’s a must-use sire for the lucrative restricted program in New York. The sire of 55 black-type winners and four Grade l winners (plus an additional three in Argentina) through 16 crops, he gets 6% black-type winners from foals. His best include Gl Cigar Mile H. winner Sharp Azteca, now at stud at Three Chimneys. Freud isn’t ranked on the General Sires List this year, but he was last year.

Include ($5,000) – This son of Broad Brush at Airdrie is responsible for 45 black-type winners through 15 crops, including five Grade l winners (plus another five bred in Argentina), and he’s ranked #98 on the General Sires List. He gets 6% black-type winners to foals and has a notable bias for fillies: all five of his top-level winners are fillies, headed by millionaire Panty Raid. If you included his five Group 1 winners from Argentina, nine of the 10 are fillies. His top current runner, 3-year-old Grade ll winner Sconsin, also is a filly, but he does have champion Canadian juvenile colt Riker and Grade lll winner and Grade l-placed All Included among a smaller group of accomplished males.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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Bravazo Joins Stallion Ranks at Calumet

Bravazo (Awesome Again–Tiz o’ Gold, by Cee’s Tizzy), who bankrolled over $2 million over the course of four seasons at the track, will enter stud in 2021 at his owner’s Calumet Farm. He will stand for $6,000.

Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, Bravazo was second in the GI Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at two and earned his way onto the Triple Crown trail with an upset victory in the GII Risen Star S. in 2018. He would go on to finish second, beaten a half-length by eventual Triple Crown hero Justify (Scat Daddy) in the GI Preakness S., and hit the board in the GI Haskell Invitational S., GI Runhappy Travers S., GI Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and GI Clark S.

“Bravazo was an iron horse on the track,” said Calumet’s Eddie Kane. “He was a fierce competitor with great resolve and determination. I’m confident he will establish this toughness in his progeny.”

The Calumet roster is topped by English Channel (Smart Strike), the number one turf sire by earnings with eighth individual black-type winners, five of those graded, including GISW and Eclipse Award candidate Channel Maker. English Channel stands for $27,500 in 2021.

Sire (Sire’s Sire) Fee
English Channel (Smart Strike) $27,500
Keen Ice (Curlin) $12,500
Oxbow (Awesome Again) $7,500
Ransom the Moon (Malibu Moon $7,500
Bravazo (Awesome Again) $6,000
Bal a Bali (Brz) (Put It Back) $5,000
Big Blue Kitten (Kitten’s Joy) $5,000
Real Solution (Kitten’s Joy) $5,000
War Correspondent (War Front) $5,000
Hightail (Mineshaft) $4,000
Mr. Z (Malibu Moon) $2,500
Optimizer (English Channel) $2,500
Producer (GB) (Dutch Art {GB}) $2,500
Raison D’Etat (A.P. Indy) $2,500

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This Side Up: If You Can Run, You Won’t Have to Hide

“When you figure it out, let me know.”

Those were the parting words of a highly esteemed breeder this week, after we exchanged a few thoughts on the diminishing viability of stallions once they have covered their first book of mares. Not that “diminishing,” as an adjective, is really equal to the case. I suppose you could diminish down a lift shaft, but it wouldn’t be the first word that would occur to you in the time available.

Spoiler alert: I haven’t figured it out. But I think I know where we might start.

We all know that most stallions never earn a fee higher than their opening one; and that things are nowadays getting tough even for stallions entering their second year. Such is the nervousness of commercial breeders about taking a yearling to market once its sire has been exposed even to the (highly unimaginative) judgement of the sales ring; never mind about sticking around long enough to see whether the stock can actually run.

Many farms have duly sought to incentivize loyalty to new stallions. Breed your mare to such-and-such a horse for his first two years, for instance, and you can come back gratis ever after. Of course, there’s a pretty bleak inference. By the time you get free access, many stallions may have reached a point where you would rather pay to go elsewhere anyway.

The woman who contacted me this week suggested that farms might extend the logic behind such schemes precisely to those stallions who are now going “cold.” Cutting their fees, she remarked, always feels like a kick in the teeth to those who supported them the previous year. Say you paid $30,000 for the foal in your mare’s belly; and now, even before its delivery, the same sire is down to $20,000. That puts a red flag over your foal straightaway, and will hardly encourage you to double down with a return cover.

Perhaps, then, farms could play nice with my breeder by going back to her and saying: “Look, we’re sorry about devaluing your investment in our horse. You believed in him, after all–and we still do. So we’d like to invite you back. If you’re prepared to persevere with him for 2021, at his new fee of $20,000, we’ll backdate that rate to this pregnancy as well.”

The farm would only get $40,000 for two covers, instead of the $50,000 due at the prevailing rates. But that’s still a whole lot better than $30,000 for one cover, plus zilch for the next year as the disgruntled breeder seeks sanctuary in some random freshman. In theory, remember, fee cuts are only made in the hope of encouraging custom–but how often do they achieve precisely the reverse effect?

Daredevil | Louise Reinagel

Even this kind of inventive concession might not be enough for breeders to whom any savings on fee may seem relatively marginal, relative to the depreciation invited by that red flag. But the farm, in that case, would still get to trouser its $30,000.

If farm and breeder can meet in the middle, however, the “cooling” stallion might yet be able to stay in the game a little longer; long enough, perhaps, to earn a more realistic assessment than is typically made of a single crop of juveniles, often by a stallion who only earned his place at stud by thriving with maturity round a second turn. And that, in turn, might even reduce the frequency with which farms cut their losses and sell a stallion overseas or into a regional program–which is akin to sticking that red flag right under the tail of your poor yearling.

Regardless of whether this suggestion would be practicable, or effective, the key is that stallion farms and breeders work together to break the vicious cycle devaluing the commodities traded by both. Because while their mutual arrangements ultimately only determine “supply,” both might enjoy greater security if the “demand” were better educated.

Gradually I am beginning to grasp how farms and breeders alike feel pretty helpless about the overloading of new stallions. Certainly the farm accountants would like nothing better than business balanced through the roster. As it is, everyone is at the mercy of the purchasers. Because it’s the guy sticking a hand up at ringside who really needs to put a premium on the horse bred to run, as opposed to the one produced merely to look the part on the rostrum.

There are two big problems in current purchasing behavior. One is that so much of it is driven by pinhooks: yet another commercial cycle, in other words, dividing the planning of a mating from the aspiration to win races. The other is that the professionals guiding end-users–veterinarians, agents and so on–are directing traffic to the show ponies. In some cases, okay, they simply want to avoid appearing at fault for any structural defects that may emerge later. In others, however, they are taking out a less pardonable insurance.

If they were trying to provide a real service for their patrons, they would buy or breed a horse by, for instance, the perennially under-rated Lookin At Lucky. But they don’t want to say: “Just look, sir/madam, at the fantastic value I have secured. I can only do that for you because everyone else is too dumb, or too scared, to risk walking back through the herd.” Instead they steer the action to stallion X, saying: “Don’t blame ME if this goes wrong. Because you can see the whole community of experts just loves this guy.”

And the commercial consensus can barely be dignified as “fashion,” which might at least last a year. Increasingly, they are mere fads. One of the main reasons why the big farms throw such numbers at their new sires is because a single headliner will serve as a fig leaf to the modesty of literally hundreds of other foals. A stallion’s entire career can hinge on a single member of his first crop. Horse A lands on a weak Grade I, with the right pace or track bias, and daddy is made. Horse B may be a street better, but he gets injured schooling in the gate and doesn’t run until he’s four. By then, the die is cast.

A couple of days ago we looked at the story, virtually the parable, of Daredevil–who was down to 21 mares when sold to Turkey after a quiet start by his first juveniles. Clearly, however, it’s extremely rare for such horses to leave behind an adequately stinging rebuke to earn a passage back home.

Sky Mesa | EquiSport Photos

The buyers may well retort that it’s not easy to find stallions like Lookin At Lucky. Most “proven” sires are, deservedly, also expensive ones. If there just aren’t that many around who reliably get you a runner at an accessible price, then the best you can do is take a punt on a new stallion–and hope that you have stumbled across the next Constitution, or Not This Time, or whoever.

But I can’t have that. Throw the same cavalry of mares favoring the rookies at many of those slugging away at that level between The Factor and Midshipman, say, taking in your Midnight Lutes and Sky Mesas and Mizzen Masts and so on, and do you seriously think your stakes ratio would be–well, “diminished”? Apart from anything else, moreover, why not take the same gamble at slashed fees on the many Classic-oriented stallions who haven’t really had a chance to establish their merit or otherwise, in their fourth or fifth seasons at stud?

To improve supply, we have to improve demand. We shouldn’t be dragging the spenders, the guys who come to the professionals for guidance, into our fitful, fretful, flighty pursuit of the quick buck. Do the right thing by the fellows with the dough, after all, and we’ll also end up doing the right thing by the breed. And, ultimately, we’ll make the whole business more sustainable.

In Britain, where prize money is notoriously inadequate relative to the cost of participation, they strive to fill the gap with heritage and pageant and the associated prestige. By the same token, if American horsemen want to sustain investment–in training fees, especially, which keep piling up even as your gamble on a freshman sire rapidly “diminishes” through the claiming grades–then they must work, above all, at the experience of ownership.

If the whole adventure can be made glamorous and fun and compelling, something that people of all classes will want to share with their friends (and vaunt to their enemies!), whether at Saratoga or Finger Lakes, then who knows? Maybe they might want to buy actual runners, rather than throw all their money at our oil-strike fantasies about a home run in the sales ring.

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This Side Up: Cutting Down Scepticism on Fees

Bought yourself a mare in Lexington this week? Good for you. You have kept the faith. In many cases, that will be because you have seen it all before: you’ve ridden out bumps in the economy, and eked out value from these stoical and enduring creatures by borrowing their impassive engagement with the patient rhythms of Nature. It’s a long game, after all, one that will absorb pandemics and presidential cycles like a passing April shower.

But even the longest journey starts with a single step. And many of you will already have had an assignation in mind for your new mare from the moment you first folded down the catalogue page.

As we know, the stallion farms have done their bit to animate a market stricken by anxiety about the current strain on the global economic system. All the big commercial operations have made headline cuts in fees for 2021, and I’m already salivating over some of the value to be identified in our annual winter appraisal of the stallion market.

Some people, however, have muttered their scepticism as to the substance of these gestures. Has there really been a comprehensive remodelling in the base cost of breeding a Thoroughbred? Or have farms merely camouflaged the decline they had invited in overpricing particular types of stallion?

Well, I thought that might be worth investigating. Intake by intake, I’ve taken a look at the relative decline, between stallions at different stages of their careers, at 12 leading farms in Kentucky. We know, after all, that few sires ever again command a fee as high as their opening one; and that they will generally take repeated trims until either discarded, or achieving something to suggest a long-term viability.

How much deeper than “normal”, then, were the cuts this time round? And where were they concentrated?

This table charts the decline, in each of the past two years, in the aggregate stud fees charged by sires at the same stage of their careers on these 12 farms.

It’s a broad-brush exercise, very soon complicated by stallion traffic in and out of the Bluegrass by the likes of California Chrome (out), Laoban (in) and Daredevil (out and in). But my feeling is that when these farm owners talk about us all being in this together, they could also be addressing their stallions. Because they do, in the round, appear to have led sires young and old out onto the high road to meet the breeders halfway.

If there is divergence in the angle of the knife making these cuts, then it’s not so much between stallions at a different stage as between stallions on different farms. And you won’t find it hard to decide which were in deadly earnest, and which were pretty much making standard business decisions about individual stallions who would have been in trouble anyway.

Authentic–priced at $75,000–is the most expensive of the 2021 intake of new stallions to date | Breeders’ Cup/Eclipse Sportswire

New stallions for 2021 vs. in 2020

I suspect that the one and only group of stallions that are being protected, as a class, will turn out to be those making their entrance to the market. These, presumably, are again guaranteed books of grotesque size; certainly a lot of them appear to have been priced that way.

But there’s no point comparing their fees with those who started last spring, as every intake varies in commercial appeal: a $150,000 tag for Justify, for instance, helped to elevate the aggregate fee value of those who started at these 12 farms in 2019 at $480,000, compared with $262,500 for those who began earlier this year. The point here is to compare the relative loss of value suffered, by each intake, at the equivalent point of their careers.

And that’s certainly instructive in the case of those who entered stud in 2020, whose first foals will be delivered in the new year. Collectively, the sampled farms send these stallions back to market in 2021 at an aggregate fee cost of $220,000, down 16.2% from the $262,500 they collectively charged in their debut season.

This is a major departure from the way studs have sought to maintain values at least until a first crop of weanlings has entered the ring. In 2020, by contrast, the same farms were able to charge $477,500 for sires entering a second season, virtually unchanged from an opening $480,000.

This time around, even the stars have been repriced–most strikingly at Spendthrift. A mare apiece to Omaha Beach, Vino Rosso and Mitole would have cost a total of $100,000 last spring; now you can get to them all for $75,000.

Sires with first-crop yearlings in 2021

The next group, meanwhile, is now reaching the stage–with their first yearlings about to go into the ring–when commercial breeders typically abscond to the next round of cadets, and books start to erode. This year, sires who entered stud in 2018 were charging $270,000 from $247,500, down 8.3%, with five of 13 taking cuts. But the group who entered stud in 2019 will be charging $382,500 from $477,500, down no less than 19.9% on their last set of fees. Only four of 19 stallions in this group have managed to hold their 2020 fees.

The Factor is an example of a sire whose fee has held | Lee Thomas

Fourth-year (and beyond) stallions

Next we reach a group that tends to cause breeders really to back off, unless their first yearlings have enjoyed a conspicuous market vogue. Because in his fourth year we start to learn whether a stallion’s first juveniles can actually run.

The sires who entered stud in 2017 duly eased their 2020 fees by 10.2%, from $317,500 to $285,000, albeit the majority of farms actually held their nerve and their prices. Those who entered stud in 2018, however, will be taking the equivalent step in the new year at $191,000, down fully 22.8% from $247,500.

Hereafter comparisons become harder. This is the crossroads of every stallion’s career, with the whims of the market now measurable against results on the track. So you’ll have one guy packing his bags for Turkey even as the next turns out to be Constitution, upgraded to $40,000 and now $85,000. In terms of aggregate fees, then, the winners will very often redeem the damage done by the losers. For present purposes, the flux is such that it is more instructive to assess those who come out the other side of this winnowing process.

For instance, the handful still on these farms with three crops of runners (entered stud 2015) are certainly sharing the pain. The bare half-dozen still in business will be charging $67,500 between them in 2021, compared with $85,000 in 2020 and $125,000 the year before.

Consolidation, already so difficult because of the commercial infatuation with unproven sires, is becoming harder and harder. Move on a couple of intakes, to those with a fifth crop of runners (entered stud 2013), and it speaks volumes for The Factor, say, that he can hold even a fee he has already outpunched when a studmate as accomplished as Union Rags must take a cut of no less than 50%.

With exceptions, even stalwarts like Tapit have seen cuts going into 2021 | EquiSport Photos

Benchmark sires

And what of those who set the standard; the happy few who, having established their merit and viability, represent the model for those still trying to make a name for themselves? Operating at all levels of the market, from War Front to plucky achievers like Midshipman, they comprise the solid foundation for the whole stallion industry.

Sure enough, after a long bull run in the bloodstock market, these older sires (a total of 35 across our 12 chosen farms) collectively maintained their covering value in 2020 at $2,280,000, up marginally from $2,225,000 the previous year. For 2021, however, despite the odd hike (Into Mischief, Uncle Mo, Speightstown and Munnings) they have slipped 8.2% to $2,041,500.

That’s just about half the percentage loss, then, of those embarking on their second season. Normally, these are the two stable bookends to all the fluctuations in between. But even this lesser erosion implies some exceptional opportunity among the kind of proven sires who can make a mare, who can build a family, pending any return to the mechanical commercial exploitation of unproven sires.

I do see, nowadays, how that kind of thing is primarily driven by breeders; and I no longer blame the farms for loading the books of new stallions when the resulting stock will be given such a brief window of opportunity on the track. At the best of times, farm accountants have a terribly difficult balancing act. And, in reacting to the present crisis, it looks as though that balance extends at least to their collective use of the scythe. Admittedly, you’ll find that the cuts may be a little more jagged on some rosters than others. But the overall result is that there is opportunity across the herd.

So if you do insist on using a newcomer, with such luminous value across the rest of the spectrum, then good luck in your incorrigibility. Because if the overall “supply” did need some kind of correction, then so too, unmistakably, does our demand.

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