Steve Asmussen | Horse Racing Free Tips

Familiar Names Close Remington Standings

Remington Park in Oklahoma City closed its 66-day season Tuesday with familiar names atop the final standings. Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen was the runaway leading trainer by both wins, with 76, and earnings, with $1,529,824. It marked his 16th leading training title at the Oklahoma track and his fifth in a row. David Cabrera won his third consecutive riding title at Remington, both by wins and earnings, with 96 victories and $2,033,449 in purses.

Danny Caldwell, an Oklahoma resident, secured his 11th owner title with 28 trips to the winner’s circle and $612,751 in earnings. Caldwell has won 371 races at Remington, making him the all-time winningest owner in the track’s history.

“I want to thank Remington Park for its hospitality and the six different trainers I’ve used to win all over the country this year and it doesn’t stop there,” said Caldwell, a former high school coach. “It’s a big team effort with everyone in the barn and I still use my coaching philosophy to recruit the talent [in claiming horses]. A lot goes into the formula.”

The Oklahoma oval also had a record handle of $101,313,352, exceeding $100 million for the first time in the track’s 32-year history.

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Equibase Analysis: Nashville Stands Out In Runhappy Malibu Stakes

The holiday present the racing world opens on the day after Christmas is always a fantastic afternoon of racing on opening day of the winter-spring meeting at Santa Anita. The bright shiny bow on that present is, as usual, the Grade 1, $300,000 Runhappy Malibu Stakes.

Six horses are entered and each is special in his own right, with five of the sextet stakes winners. In terms of the level of stakes won by some of the entrants, we have to start with the Bob Baffert trained Charlatan, who crossed the finish line first in the rescheduled G1 Arkansas Derby in May, only to be stripped of that victory thereafter for a medication violation. Bob Baffert, who has won the Malibu three times previously, also saddles Thousand Words, winner of the 2019 G2 Los Alamitos Futurity as well as the Shared Belief Stakes this past summer.

Collusion Illusion won the G1 Bing Crosby Stakes in August so among the three graded stakes winners he is the only one with a win in a sprint like the Malibu. Then there's Nashville, undefeated in three starts including the Perryville Stakes last month in the sizzling time of 1:07.8. Independence Hall is no slouch, having won the G3 Nashua Stakes in November 2019 and back in form off a win last month following seven months off. Express Train has been first or second in all four of his races at a mile or less, and although this will be his first try in a graded stakes around one turn he can't be ruled out as a contender.

In this handicapper's opinion, this year's Malibu Stakes is Nashville's to lose. His effort in the Perryville Stakes last month at Keeneland was scintillating, winning by 3 1/2 lengths when galloping the last few yards after having run his opponents off their feet. The track that day was fast but fair and the 115 Equibase Speed Figure bears that out. Having earned a 106 figure winning his debut in September at Saratoga, then 113 five weeks later, Nashville is lightly enough raced that we have likely not seen his best yet. Since the Perryville, Nashville has put in three sizzling workouts at trainer Steve Asmussen's winter base at Fair Grounds in Louisiana, consisting of three five furlongs workouts, the most recent in :58.8 which was the best of 20 on the day. With the trainer's number one jockey Ricardo Santana in the saddle for the Malibu as he was for the Perryville, and with no horse in the field faster in the first quarter mile, Nashville may be running against the record book in terms of time in this year's race.

Independence Hall is the only horse I could see beating Nashville, based on how the race is likely to be run, and based on the fact he's making his second start back after seven months off as well as coming off a career-best effort. Independence Hall won the first three races of his career starting back in September of 2019. His second and third career wins came in stakes, all around one turn including the Nashua Stakes at Aqueduct last November with a 107 figure. Next winning the Jerome Stakes and putting himself into the early Derby picture, Independence Hall finished second in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, before a poor fifth place effort in the Florida Derby. Away from the races from the end of March until last month, Independence Hall changed trainers to Michael McCarthy and came back better than ever with a new career-best 108 figure effort at six and one-half furlongs. Likely pointing to this race with that prep, Independence Hall has put in two best of the day workouts since then, the most recent :59 flat for five furlongs which was the best of 83 at the distance on the day. He gets a good outside post in case the pace is hot and with logical improvement off his 108 last race figure could potentially post the upset.

Regarding Charlatan, who is likely to be either the betting favorite, or second betting favorite behind Nashville, there are some serious concerns in my opinion about his probability to win compared to others. First, he hasn't been seen since winning the Arkansas Derby nearly eight months ago and in spite of some excellent workouts, he doesn't stand out based on his best efforts. In the race prior to the Arkansas Derby at Santa Anita in March, Charlatan earned a 108 figure just on par with the figure Independence Hall earned last month and much lower than the 113 and 115 figures Nashville earned in his two most recent races, as well as shy of the 116 figure Collusion Illusion earned winning the Bing Crosby Stakes this summer. Next, in spite of having won this race three times previously, Bob Baffert just does not have a good record with horses coming back from layoffs in the two big races for 3-year-olds on opening weekend – the Malibu Stakes and the La Brea Stakes (for fillies). According to a query I ran using STATS Race Lens, Baffert has not won in seven tries over the last five years with horses coming back from layoffs longer than two months. His most recent win in this race, with McKinzie, came off a layoff of just under two months. Particularly, horses which last ran in May similar to Charlatan fared poorly, such as Lord Nelson (2015), Mor Spirit (2016) and Solomini (2018). With those results in mind I'm taking a stand against Charlatan, also noting he has led from start to finish in all three races to date and there's little doubt he's not going to have the early lead against Nashville.

As to the rest of the field, Express Train earned a career-best figure of 112 when second at a mile in late September over the track before a failed attempt on turf and could return to competitive form back on the main track so could get a piece. Collusion Illusion rallied from seventh to win the Bing Crosby with a 116 figure and before that won the Lazaro Barrera Stakes at the distance of six and one-half furlongs so he could be making up ground late and is another with a shot to finish in-the-money. Thousand Words ran the second worst race of his career when last seen in October, finishing eighth in the Preakness Stakes. His best efforts winning the Shared Belief Stakes and Robert B. Lewis Stakes earned 107 figures but both were two-turn races so he would need to run better than he ever has to beat many of these.

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Nashville
Independence Hall

Runhappy Malibu Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Santa Anita
Saturday, December 26 – Post Time 6:30 PM E.T.
Seven Furlongs
3-Year-Olds
Purse: $300,000

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Finite Ships West To Take On Merneith In La Brea

In what appears to be a wide-open affair at seven furlongs, Steve Asmussen-trained Finite and Bob Baffert trainee Merneith head a field of 11 sophomore fillies in the Grade 1, $300,000 La Brea Stakes, one of five graded events on Santa Anita's Winter/Spring opening day this Saturday, Dec. 26.

A winner of the G3 Chilukki Stakes going a one turn mile at Churchill Downs Nov. 21, Finite is a three-time graded stakes winner who seeks her seventh win in what will be her 12th career start.

A winner of her last two starts, Merneith, a daughter of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, seeks her third consecutive win and her first graded stakes win.

FINITE

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC, Thomas Reiman, William Dickson & Deborah Easter

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Fresh off a rousing 2 ½ length win going a one turn mile in the G3 Chilukki Stakes at Churchill Downs Nov. 21, this daughter of Munnings will ship west in search of her first G1 victory. Although she rallied powerfully from off the pace to win the Chilukki, Finite has plenty of natural speed, evidenced by her gate to wire maiden win going 6 ½ furlongs on grass at age two. With three graded stakes victories and an overall mark of 11-6-3-0, she is the leading money earner in the field with $757,869 and looms the post time favorite.

MERNEITH

Owner: HRH Prince Sultan Bin Mishal Al Saud

Trainer: Bob Baffert

A game neck winner of an ungraded six furlong stakes at Keeneland on Nov. 7, this daughter of American Pharoah was an emphatic 3 ¼ length allowance winner at the same distance here on Oct. 11 and thus seeks her third consecutive win. A well beaten third by Horse of the Year candidate Swiss Skydiver in her only graded stakes try, the G2 Santa Anita Oaks five starts back on June 6, Merneith appears poised for a top effort as Baffert seeks his record eighth La Brea triumph.

MOTIVATED SELLER

Owner: Klaravich Stables, Inc.

Trainer: Chad Brown

Second, beaten a neck by Merneith going six furlongs at Keeneland Nov. 7, this daughter of top sire Into Mischief is very much on the improve for Brown. A six length first-out maiden winner going six furlongs at Gulfstream Park Jan. 12, she was then idle until Oct. 11 at Belmont Park, where she pressed the early pace and registered a 2 ¾ length allowance win at the same distance. In what will be her fourth career start, Motivated Seller will be trying graded stakes competition for the first time.

THE GRADE I LA BREA WITH JOCKEYS & WEIGHTS IN POST POSITION ORDER

Race 8 of 11 Approximate post time 2:30 p.m. PT

Princess Mo—Geovanni Franco—120
Merneith—John Velazquez—120
Himiko—Flavien Prat—120
Secret Keeper—Abel Cedillo–120
Finite—Ricardo Santana, Jr.—122
Biddy Duke—Juan Hernandez—122
Provocation—Joel Rosario—120
Motivated Seller—Umberto Rispoli—120
Fair Maiden—Ricardo Gonzalez—120
Golden Principal—Mike Smith—120
Stellar Sound—Victor Espinoza–120

The G1 La Brea, to be contested for the 48th time, is one of five graded stakes on an 11-race card Saturday.

Although there is no public admittance, fans can watch and wager via 1st.com/Bet and they can watch all of Santa Anita's races free of charge at santaanita.com/live. Special early first post time on Saturday is at 11 a.m. For additional information, please visit santaanita.com or call (626) 574-RACE.

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Charlatan ‘Healthy’ For Highly-Anticipated Matchup With Nashville In Saturday’s Malibu

Charlatan, one in a battalion of bluebloods based in Bob Baffert's barn, faces off against Nashville in the Grade 1 Runhappy Malibu Stakes on opening day, Saturday, Dec. 26, the marquee event as historic Santa Anita ushers in its 84th season of world-class racing.

This year's Malibu is arguably one of the most anticipated in the event's 70 runnings, pitting two immensely talented sons of 2004 Eclipse Award champion male sprinter Speightstown against one another.

The Malibu has been won in the past by a Who's Who of Thoroughbreds, among them Runhappy (2015), Ferdinand (1986), Precisionist (1984), Spectacular Bid (1980), Ancient Title (1974), Damascus (1968), Buckpasser (1966) Native Diver (1962), Olden Times (1961), Hillsdale (1958), Round Table (1957) Determine (1955) and Calumet Farm's star filly A Gleam (1953).

Last year it was won by star-crossed Omaha Beach, whose potential for further greatness on the track ended when he was retired to stud after a filling in his right hind leg prevented him from running in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational on Jan. 25 of this year.

Santa Anita's traditional opening day is saturated with stakes, six in all, three of them Grade 1's: the $300,000 Malibu for 3-year-olds at seven furlongs; the $300,000 La Brea for 3-year-old fillies at seven furlongs; and the $300,000 American Oaks for 3-year-old fillies at 1 ¼ miles on turf.

The Malibu, La Brea and American Oaks are the final three Grade 1 stakes to be run in the United States this year.

First post time on opening day will be 11 a.m.

Charlatan, a $700,000 chestnut colt, finished first in each of his three starts by a combined margin of 22 lengths but was disqualified from his six-length triumph in a division of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby May 2 on a medication violation. He has not raced since but is firing bullets for his return, a display as synonymous with Baffert as his signature white hair.

Through Dec. 6, Baffert led all trainers in Grade 1 wins this year with 15, four more than Chad Brown.

”Charlatan is doing really well,” said Baffert, who will be seeking his fourth Malibu victory, having won in 2018 with McKinzie, 2013 with Shakin It Up and 2011 with The Factor. “You can only do so much coming off a layoff going seven eighths…

“He's healthy and that's the main thing; he should run well.”

Baffert had to stop on Charlatan after May 2 due to a minor filling in a front ankle that he described at the time as “not even a flake.”

Saturday at Santa Anita, Charlatan worked five furlongs in :59.80, a tad off the time of Malibu contender Independence Hall, who went the same distance in a bullet :59 flat for Michael McCarthy.

Baffert also plans to run multiple graded stakes winner Thousand Words in the Malibu with John Velazquez aboard. Thousand Words last raced Oct. 3 in the Preakness, finishing eighth after pressing the pace. The son of Pioneerof the Nile has been working lights out for the Malibu, as two bullet breezes on Nov. 12 and Nov. 28 would attest, in addition to his five-furlong drill Friday in 59.80.

Nashville, a bay colt trained by Steve Asmussen, also has had three starts, winning by a combined margin of nearly 25 lengths, including the restricted Perryville at Keeneland by 3 ½ lengths on Nov. 7, in which he set a track record for six furlongs of 1:07.89. He has been working brilliantly since, including a bullet five furlongs in a minute flat, breezing, at Fair Grounds on Dec. 1.

Nashville is owned by China Horse Club and WinStar Farm and was bought for $460,000 by CHC and Maverick Racing, the purchasing arm of WinStar, from the Lane's End consignment to the 2018 Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

He will be ridden by 28-year-old Ricardo Santana Jr. from the Panamanian town of El Chorrillo. Santana, a 2008 graduate of the Laffit Pincay Jr. school for jockeys in Panama, also will do honors for Asmussen on Finite in the La Brea.

Strongly supporting the Malibu, La Brea and American Oaks are the Grade 2, $200,000 San Antonio Stakes for 3-year-olds and up at 1 1/16 miles, a major steppingstone to the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap on March 6; the Grade 2 Mathis Brothers Mile for 3-year-olds on turf; and the grassy $75,000 Lady of Shamrock Stakes for 3-year-old fillies at a mile. Overall, $1,375,000 in stakes money will be up for grabs.

Baffert has four horses nominated to the La Brea and plans to run all four: Merneith, who worked five furlongs Saturday in :59.80; Golden Principal, Himiko and Provocation. Himiko breezed four furlongs in :48 flat and Provocation in :47.40, both on Sunday, while Golden Principal went six furlongs Friday in 1:13.20.

Santa Anita's stakes spectacular continues on Sunday with the Grade 3 Robert J. Frankel Stakes for fillies and mares, three and up at 1 1/8 miles on turf and the $75,000 Eddie Logan Stakes for 2-year-olds at a mile on the grass.

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