Stephen Foster | Horse Racing Free Tips

Tom Rides Hot Streak Into Foster

Tom’s d’Etat (Smart Strike) has been on a streak over the last few months and is heavily favored on the morning-line to secure his fourth straight victory in Saturday’s GII Stephen Foster S. at Churchill Downs, which grants the winner a spot in the starting gate for the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic. Capturing a sloppy renewal of the GII Fayette S. at Keeneland in October, the bay followed suit with a decisive score in the track-and-trip GI Clark S. Nov. 29. He kicked off 2020 with a 3/4-length score in the Oaklawn Mile Apr. 11 on a wet track.

“I’m not worried about he’s going to show up in the Foster; he runs very well fresh,” trainer Al Stall Jr. told the Churchill notes team. “This race will feed us into the rest of the year, which looks like it’s setting up well with the schedules in New York and elsewhere. This is his home track and has a visual of it in front of his stall, sort of like Blame did.”

By My Standards (Goldencents) also rides a hot streak into this race and will give his elder some competition. Kicking off 2020 with a six-length romp in a Fair Grounds optional claimer Feb. 9, the 4-year-old scored a decisive victory in the GII New Orleans Classic S. Mar. 21 and captured the GII Oaklawn H. last time May 2, earning a 102 Beyer Speed Figure.

“[By My Standards] has shown every positive development from his 3-year-old season to this year,” trainer Bret Calhoun said. “He’s a very talented racehorse and we saw that with his strong campaign last year. He’s just bigger and stronger this year.”

Three-time Grade III winner Owendale (Into Mischief) takes another shot at Tom’s d’Etat here after finishing second to that rival in the Clark. The bay rallied from well back to captured the one-mile Blame S. at this oval last time May 2.

Another runner of interest at more of a price is the Todd Pletcher-trained Fearless (Ghostzapper). Opening his account with a pair of good-looking scores at Gulfstream this winter, the $725,000 KEESEP buy was off the board in the New Orleans Classic and closed strongly for second next out in an Oaklawn optional claimer May 2. The bay returned to winning ways last time in an optional claimer at this venue May 30.

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Tom’s D’Etat ‘Runs Very Well Fresh,’ Installed As Even-Money Morning Line Favorite For Stephen Foster

G M B Racing's 2019 Clark (Grade I) winner Tom's d'Etat was installed as the even-money morning line favorite for Saturday's $500,000 Stephen Foster presented by Coca-Cola (Grade II) – a Breeders' Cup “Win and You're In” event for the Nov. 7 Breeders' Cup Classic (GI).

The 1 1/8-mile Stephen Foster is the headliner of a stakes quartet on Saturday's 11-race program at Churchill Downs. The day of racing also will feature the $200,000 Fleur de Lis presented by Coca-Cola (GII), $100,000 Regret presented by TwinSpires.com (GIII) and $100,000 Bashford Manor presented by TwinSpires.com (GIII). First post is 1 p.m. (all times Eastern) and the Stephen Foster is slated at 5:47 p.m.

Along with the spectacular action on the racetrack, bettors will have large wagering pools to tackle including a $250,000-guaranteed Late Pick 5 pool. The 50-cent bet will begin in Race 7 (4:12 p.m.) – a 5 ½ furlong turf allowance event. The next four races will be the Bashford Manor, Fleur de Lis, Stephen Foster and Regret, respectively. For free past performances, visit www.churchilldowns.com/handicapping.

Tom's d'Etat (17-10-2-1—$1,326,572) has won four of his last five starts including a 3 ¼-length score in last year's $600,000 Clark (GI). The now 7-year-old son of Smart Strike enters Saturday's Stephen Foster following a hard-fought victory in the April 11 $150,000 Oaklawn Mile.

“I'm not worried about he's going to show up in the Foster; he runs very well fresh,” trainer Al Stall Jr. said. “This race will feed us into the rest of the year, which looks like it's setting up well with the schedules in New York and elsewhere. … This is his home track and has a visual of it in front of his stall, sort of like Blame did.”

Stall is not a stranger to success in the Stephen Foster. He won the race in 2010 with the aforementioned Blame prior to his victory over Zenyatta in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Blame would go on to become the 2010 Champion Older Male.

“We're trying to get (Tom's d'Etat) to the Blame level,” Stall said. “Both of these horses have a ton of class and ability.”

One of the challenges facing handicappers for Saturday's Stephen Foster is the probable pace scenario. The likely frontrunner in the race could be the graded stakes placed Pirate's Punch. Ridden by Mike Smith, Pirate's Punch has secured the early lead in nine of his last 11 races. A horse that could be tracking from just off the early lead could be Allied Racing Stable's multiple Grade II winner By My Standards.

“It's going to be an interesting setup,” trainer Bret Calhoun said. “Pirate's Punch looks like he could be the controlling pace of the race. What's interesting is the horse from the rail (Fearless) who has shown speed back in his form in his maiden race and second start. Since then, he's sort of been relegated off the pace.

“(By My Standards) has shown every positive development from his three-year-old season to this year. He's a very talented racehorse and we saw that with his strong campaign last year. He's just bigger and stronger this year.”

The complete field for the Stephen Foster (with jockey, trainer and morning line odds): Fearless (John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher, 12-1); Pirate's Punch (Mike Smith, Grant Forster, 15-1); Alkhaatam (Declan Cannon, Danny Peitz, 30-1); Multiplier (Tyler Gaffalione, Peter Miller, 10-1); Tom's d'Etat (Mena, Stall, even-money); By My Standards (Gabriel Saez, Calhoun, 5-2); Silver Dust (Beschizza, Calhoun, 10-1); and Owendale (Florent Geroux, Brad Cox, 4-1).

Both the Stephen Foster and the Fleur de Lis will be broadcast live on NBC from 5-6 p.m.

The Stephen Foster has had a strong influence on the Breeders' Cup Classic and Horse of the Year honors. Four horses used victories in the Stephen Foster as part of their résumés in Horse of the Year campaigns: Black Tie Affair (1991), Saint Liam (2005), Curlin (2008) and Gun Runner (2017). In addition, two runner-ups were crowned Horse of the Year: Mineshaft (2003) and Wise Dan (2012). Also, Awesome Again (1998) and Blame (2010) completed same-year Foster-Classic doubles. Fort Larned won the Classic in 2012, and won the Foster the following year prior to a fourth-place run in his bid for a second Classic win.

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Equibase Analysis: Pirate’s Punch Could Lead All The Way In Stephen Foster

The Grade 1, $500,000 Stephen Foster Stakes brings together a field of eight quality horses in the Breeders' Cup Classic division, each hoping to earn an automatic spot into the gate for the November 8 running of the race at Keeneland, just 75 miles down the road from Churchill Downs.

Leading the field in terms of accomplishments is Tom's d'Etat, winner of the Grade 1 Clark Stakes, the fall version of the Stephen Foster. Since the Clark, Tom's d'Etat won the Oaklawn Mile Stakes in his only start of 2020 and although third in last year's Foster he is the one to beat on paper. Owendale is among many who have top stakes credentials, having won the Blame Stakes at Churchill Downs last month after finishing second to Tom's d'Etat in the Clark last fall.

Another strong contender is By My Standards, who has a perfect three-for-three record this year including the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap last month in his most recent race. Silver Dust is no slouch either, having led late in the Blame Stakes last month and coming up a neck short in the Grade 2 Lukas Classic Stakes last summer at this nine furlong distance while winning the Grade 3 Mineshaft Stakes and Grade 3 Louisiana Stakes in between.

Pirate's Punch finished third in the Mineshaft, as well as third in the Grade 3 Super Derby last summer and may have an edge in the pace department as the only horse who likes to lead early in the race. Multiplier won the Grade 3 Illinois Derby in 2017 at the distance of the Stephen Foster and proved he belongs with these when coming up a neck short in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap in March. Fearless makes his stakes debut off an eye-catching rally from last of 11 to win an allowance race last month at Churchill Downs. Alkhaatam rounds out the field, having won his last two dirt starts, noting however he finished 11th of 12 in last year's Foster.

Although there's no doubt Tom's d'Etat leads the field in terms of having earned field high 116 and 118 Equibase Speed Figures in similar races, Pirate's Punch may have a significant edge in terms of early speed that could help him to post the upset. Winner of four races from 14 starts, Pirate's Punch was most impressive in two of his last four efforts when winning by five and by 11 and one-half lengths, respectively. In both cases, Pirate's Punch established the lead and got very brave to be well in front when the field turned for home, giving no horse a chance to make up any ground. It may also be that Pirate's Punch can take back and sit off the pace as well. This is evidenced by his last effort where he rallied from fifth to get within a neck of the leader with an eighth of a mile to go, before being out finished but only beaten a half-length and a neck for the win.

Getting the two post position in the Foster, as well as the services of Hall-of-Fame jockey Mike Smith, I believe the tactic will be to go for the lead from the start, especially since the only horse inside of Pirate's Punch in the gate (Fearless) usually drops back and closes from far back. There's absolutely no doubt in my mind Pirate's Punch has the breeding to win this grade 1 race and to run well at one mile and one-eighth. Using STATS Race Lens to look at the history of other foals of the dam, I note both were exceptional, with combined earnings of $2.1 million. One of those was Girvin, winner of the 2017 Grade 1 Haskell Invitational Stakes. As such, I'll take Pirate's Punch to get the lead from the opening of the gate and never look back in this year's Stephen Foster Stakes.

Tom's d'Etat doesn't need much talking up, if any, in terms of being a strong contender to win this race. Winner of 10 races from 16 dirt starts, Tom's d'Etat proved himself last summer at the distance when winning the Alydar Stakes at Saratoga with a career-best 118 figure. Two races later, Tom's d'Etat duplicated the feat with a victory in the Grade 3 Fayette Stakes at the same distance, earning a 116 figure. Winning the Clark Stakes in November at Churchill Downs with a 113 figure led to a four and one-half month layoff. Returning as if he had never been away, Tom's d'Etat earned a 113 figure winning the Oaklawn Mile Stakes in April. Having proven capable of winning off a layoff, there's no problem with the two and one-half months off since his last race and as he's won five or eight races at the distance including three of his last four, there is nothing to knock about this talented horse. Although he rallied from sixth and eighth, respectively, in his last two race, Tom's d'Etat raced closer up in second in the early stages of the Fayette Stakes so it is entirely possible Pirate's Punch will not get the easy early lead I envision and in that case it's very likely Tom's d'Etat will earn his 11th career win in this race.

By My Standards has really blossomed as a four year old, winning in his 2020 debut by six lengths then taking two straight grade stakes. Winner of the Louisiana Derby at the distance of the Foster last March as a three year old, By My Standards had already proven to be one of the top of his class but after a poor 12th place effort in the Kentucky Derby, the colt went on the sidelines. Given time to mature, he did just that with a win around two-turns off a nine month layoff with a 102 figure, then two races later he earned a career-best 106 figure in the Oaklawn Handicap at this mile and one-eighth distance. Showing he's fit as a fiddle with a half-mile workout one week ago that was the 11th best of 113 on the day and with it likely he has improving to do, By My Standards could really put his mark on the division with a win in this race and by doing so, stamp his name as one of the horses to strongly consider this fall in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

I could make the case for any of the other five entrants in this race as their best efforts could be good enough to win. These horses, and their best Equibase Speed Figures, are Alkhaatam (105), Fearless (99), Multiplier (109), Owendale (108) and Silver Dust (114).

Win Contenders:
Pirate's Punch
Tom's d'Etat
By My Standards

Stephen Foster Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Churchill Downs
Saturday, June 27 – Post Time 5:47 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
Four Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $500,000

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Stephen Foster, Ohio Derby Take Center Stage On America’s Day At The Races Broadcast

America's Day at the Races, produced by the New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA) in partnership with FOX Sports, returns this Thursday on FOX Sports and MSG+ for the start of four days of coverage and analysis of the best in thoroughbred racing from Belmont Park, Churchill Downs and Thistledown Racecourse.

The acclaimed national telecast will air Thursday through Sunday on FS1, FS2 and MSG+ for a combined 20 1/2 hours of television coverage, highlighted on Saturday by a blockbuster day of stakes races from around the country.

Stakes action takes centerstage on Saturday at Belmont Park, anchored by the 27th running of the Grade 1, $300,000 Just a Game for 4-year-olds & up (fillies & mares) going one mile on the turf. Saturday coverage from Belmont will include a pair of Grade 2 races – the $250,000 New York for 4-year-olds & up (fillies & mares) at 1 ¼ miles on the turf and the $150,000 True North for 4-year-olds & up at 6 ½ furlongs on the dirt – as well as the Grade 3 $100,000 Vagrancy Handicap for 3-year-olds & up (fillies & mares) at 6 ½ furlongs on the dirt.

Also featured on Saturday's broadcast is the Grade 3 Ohio Derby at Thistledown Racecourse for 3-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles, which has been added to the Road to the Kentucky Derby series. The top-four finishers will receive points worth 20-8-4-2 for entry to the field for the Kentucky Derby, rescheduled for September 5 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Churchill Downs closes out its 38-day spring meet with two Breeders' Cup Challenge Series “Win and You're In” qualifying races, the Grade 2, $500,000 Grade 2 Stephen Foster for 4-year-olds & up going 1-1/8 miles, which offers an expenses-paid berth in the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic to the race winner; and the Grade 2, $200,000 Fleur de Lis for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles, which grants a place in the Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff. Both Breeders Cup races will be on November 7 at Keeneland.

Grade 1-winner Tom's d'Etat will take on multiple graded-stakes winners By My Standards and Owendale in Saturday's 39th running of the Grade 2 Stephen Foster.

Featured in the 45th running of the Fleur de Lis – which means “Flower of the Lily” and honors the French symbol incorporated into the city of Louisville's Flag – will be the U.S. return of 2019 Champion Older Female Midnight Bisou taking on 2019 Longines Kentucky Oaks winner Serengeti Empress.

Closing day at Churchill Downs will also include the Grade 3, $100,000 Regret for sophomore fillies and the Grade 3, $100,000 Bashford Manor for juvenile sprinters.

The week's stakes schedule kicks off on Thursday at Belmont Park with the 8th running of the $80,000 Easy Goer for 3-year-olds going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. Looking to extend his two victories in his first two career starts in his stakes debut will be Calumet Farm's Casino Grande, a Kentucky homebred, trained by Christophe Clement.

Highlighting Friday's racing from Belmont Park will be the inaugural running of the $75,000 Hessonite for 4-year-olds & up (fillies & mares) going six furlongs on the turf. Sunday's stakes race at Belmont will be the 43rd running of the $100,000 Bouwerie for 3-year-old New York fillies going seven furlongs on the dirt.

This week's America's Day at the Races schedule:

(All times Eastern)

Thursday, June 25:
1:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. (FS2)
1:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. (MSG+)

Friday, June 26:
1:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. (FS2)
1:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. (MSG+)

Saturday. June 27:
1:00 p.m. – 3:00 p.m. (FS2)
3:00 p.m. – 6:30 p.m. (FS1)
1:00 p.m. – 6:30 p.m. (MSG+)

Sunday, June 28:
1:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. (FS2)
1:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. (MSG+)

America's Day at the Races is also broadcast on NYRA's YouTube channel, which boasts more than 40,000 subscribers. Fans can subscribe to NYRA's channel and set a reminder to watch the show on YouTube Live. NYRA's YouTube channel also hosts a number of race replays, special features, America's Day at the Races replays and more.

America's Day at the Races is presented by America's Best Racing, Runhappy, and Claiborne Farm. This weekend's broadcast team includes Greg Wolf, Andy Serling, Maggie Wolfendale, Richard Migliore, Acacia Courtney and Jonathon Kinchen.

NYRA Bets is the official online wagering platform of the Belmont spring/summer meet available to customers across the United States. In addition to a host of weekly special offers, NYRA Bets is currently offering a $200 deposit match bonus to new members.

NYRA Bets provides fans the opportunity to wager on racing from tracks around the world at any time. The NYRA Bets app is available for download for iOS and Android at NYRA Bets App. Watch and wager on the best racing while earning points on every bet.

For further details on the new member bonus, visit NYRABets.com/#sign-up-bonus.

Free Equibase-provided past performances are available for races that are part of the America's Day at the Races broadcast and can be accessed at https://www.nyra.com/belmont/racing/tv-schedule.

The 2020 Belmont spring/summer meet continues through Sunday, July 12. Live racing is offered Thursday through Sunday with a first post of 1:15 p.m. The 25-day meet features 22 graded stakes and 40 stakes races in total worth $7 million in purses.

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