In “Making Claims,” Paulick Report bloodstock editor Joe Nevills shares his opinions on the Thoroughbred industry from the breeding and sales arenas to the racing world and beyond.
Making predictions at the beginning of 2020 meant starting with certainty and taking a wild detour after COVID-19 changed the world. Assuming the distribution of the vaccine goes to plan and normalcy returns by the end of 2021, we could see the inverse.
Regardless of the start and end points on a global scale, the bloodstock market rolls on as ever. With a new year ahead of us, I have five predictions for how the marketplace will play out in 2021.
1) Into Mischief Will Repeat As Leading General Sire
Into Mischief had a season for the ages in 2020, setting the single-season record for progeny earnings, spearheaded by probable Horse of the Year Authentic, and Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint winner Gamine.
The Spendthrift Farm resident has been set up for a long reign at the top, thanks to the two things that put any stallion in a position to succeed: quantity and quality in his books of mares. Arguably no other stallion in North America has a stronger pipeline of future runners to keep him at the top of the sire list for the foreseeable future.
Into Mischief is annually at or near the top of the list when The Jockey Club's Report of Mares Bred reveals the most active stallions of a given breeding season, and that was true in 2018, when the 2-year-olds of 2021 were conceived. He has 199 registered live foals among his 2-year-old crop of 2021, which is 41 more than next-closest Klimt. Adding that group to the list of later developers who will certainly mature into stars during their 3-year-old and 4-year-old seasons, that's a strong platoon of runners that figures to get stronger.
Furthermore, Into Mischief covered the strongest book of mares of his career in 2018. That fact was true for several years before that season, and it's certainly true for every season that's followed. Now that he's reached the top of the mountain, that doesn't figure on changing anytime soon.
2) The Report Of Mares Bred Will Continue To Decline, But Not By Much
I could go into all sorts of tiny details as to why the number of mares bred, and the ensuing foal crop, will continue to reach depths not seen in decades, but the simple reasoning here is, “Why wouldn't it?”
The commercial market is trending slightly downward; COVID-19 and its biological, social, and economic ramifications will still be a hindrance for most folks during the bulk of the breeding season; and purses are going to be a mixed bag in 2021 until live handle starts hitting the accounts in full force and supporting casinos are back at full capacity. In short, there just isn't a compelling reason to assume the number of mares added to production will surpass those taken out.
That doesn't mean the bottom's about to fall out, though. Last year's November sales displayed a “hold” market, both in terms of the horses that weren't cataloged and the ones that were bought back. This suggests that breeders are willing to ride out the current uncertainty with the hand they've got, instead of getting out altogether.
There's not a compelling reason to think the number of mares bred will go up, but there's also not a compelling reason to think they'll tank, either. We haven't found the bottom yet, but I think we're close.
3) Practical Joke Will Be The Leading Freshman Sire Of 2021
There are typically two roads to the top when it comes to the freshman sire race. One can flood the market with foals and succeed by attrition by getting a lot of runners into the winner's circle, particularly in minor stakes races (Overanalyze). Others are spearheaded by a star runner or two who vault them to the top with big performances in big spots like the Breeders' Cup (Cross Traffic, Dialed In, Nyquist). Sometimes, a true star will hit both targets (Uncle Mo, American Pharoah).
Practical Joke hits that sweet spot in between, where he has a ton of foals ready to go in his debut crop, and he was well-supported by home farm Ashford Stud and outside breeders. He has 147 juveniles of 2021, which is the fifth-most of any North American sire. He'll have plenty of bullets to fire.
Practical Joke also has the pedigree to back it up. His sire, Into Mischief, is one of the most proven sources of juvenile success going today. Practical Joke was himself an example of that success, taking home a pair of Grade 1 wins as a 2-year-old, and a third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
Physically, Practical Joke is a ball of muscle, which should translate to an early developer who can get the job done around one turn. There's no reason to expect the Practical Jokes won't come out firing. If a few can get it done on the graded stakes level, he could run away with it.
4) The COVID-19 Vaccine Won't Change Much
There are a lot of industries where the COVID-19 vaccine figures to be a magic bullet to return things back to normal. Regardless of when that normalcy returns, and the general public can freely return to the races and sales, I don't expect the bloodstock market to experience quite the same sudden resurgence.
This is a market that was already starting to show fissures from the record-setting highs of a few years ago, and like many industries, the complications of COVID-19 sped up the downturn. Even if returns are up in 2021, there is a fair bit of ground to make up to bring things back to where they were, and that was going to be a challenge whether the world came to a grinding halt in 2020 or not.
Working in the market's favor is the fact that the sale calendar should largely be back to normal in 2021, after the initial uncertainty of last spring decimated the 2-year-old sale calendar and the first half of the yearling season. Assuming the schedule holds, the security of knowing when horses are going to be bought and sold should help both sides prepare appropriately.
We'll learn a lot from the early 2-year-old sales, which will not only will show us how buyers are feeling about spending money on racehorses, it will set the bankroll for a large chunk of the buyers during the ensuing yearling season. The yearling market felt the effects of the scrambled 2-year-old calendar and shaky economy in the spring of 2020, and this spring will either speed up that inertia or reverse it.
Perhaps most importantly, the reason the vaccine won't change much about the bloodstock market is that the bloodstock market went on without one in 2020, especially in the latter half of the year. There are some complications that figure on being eased once more people are able to travel freely, especially in terms of international buyers, but the climb back will not be as high as a business that's had to operate without one of its major sources of income, like a restaurant without a dining room.
More or less, life went on for horse trade in 2020. Because of that, there's not as much ground to make up when life starts to go on again for everyone else.
5) Get Stormy Makes The Leap
After covering 111 or more mares in his first two seasons at stud, things got quiet in the breeding shed for Crestwood Farm's Get Stormy.
At first, it was the usual lull that befalls many stallions in their third and fourth books. Then, his first couple seasons with runners on the track were solid, but lacked the superstars the market demands to line up the trailers on Spurr Road.
In 2018, Get Stormy's runners found their mojo. Got Stormy launched her superstar career with three stakes victories, including a Grade 3 score. The stallion also rung up Grade 3 wins that year with Storm the Hill and Go Noni Go, and he had a handful of others bring in graded stakes placings. He finished the 2018 season in the top five among third-crop sires by stakes winners and tied for second in that group by graded stakes winners.
Breeders took notice, and nearly doubled Get Stormy's book from 47 mares in 2018 to 86 mares in 2019. Between then and now, Got Stormy has become a true star of the turf, Fifty Five has become a millionaire, and Clyde's Image has multiple Grade 1 placings. Get Stormy was a top-10 sire by graded stakes winners on turf, and by total turf stakes winners in 2020, both with fewer starters than any active stallion ahead of him.
Get Stormy is still looking for his first serious juvenile runner, but he has the opportunity to send more 2-year-olds to post in 2021 than he's seen since his second crop hit the track in 2017. The stallion's foals conceived in 2019 had a roadmap to what makes a graded stakes-winning horse with Get Stormy, suggesting the quality and intent of the mares sent his way were clearer than before. This should, in turn, give him the best chance of his life of getting over the hump with a good 2-year-old.
Looking at the breeding season, Get Stormy's stock as a sire of runners has been on the rise, and his average yearling sale price has been climbing steadily year-over-year. It wouldn't be unreasonable to expect Get Stormy to eclipse 100 mares in 2021, especially at a completely reasonable stud fee of $7,500.
Get Stormy is on his way to becoming a made man in Kentucky. This year could be the one that fully establishes it.
The post Making Claims: Joe Nevills’ Five Fearless Predictions For The Bloodstock Market In 2021 appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
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