McPeek: Smile Happy Likely To Target Southwest Stakes En Route To Kentucky Derby

Trainer Kenny McPeek said early Thursday afternoon that he had eight horses stabled at Oaklawn and expects to eventually have “20ish” on the grounds for the 2021-2022 meeting that began Friday.

McPeek has a division of horses at Oaklawn for the first time since 2018, when he won five races from 32 starts. McPeek said Oaklawn's expanded racing calendar was the hook to return to Hot Springs. Oaklawn is opening in December for the first time and has 66 scheduled racing dates, roughly 10 more than past years. Oaklawn had previously opened in mid to late January. The 2021-2022 live season ends May 8.

“The December start date completely changes the complexion of the Oaklawn meet,” McPeek said. “I think it's a big help. You're there longer. As long as they can get the races that you need to go … I know it's a bit of an experiment, but I think it's a really good move on their part.”

McPeek returns to Oaklawn with momentum after winning four races, including the $400,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) with Smile Happy, on the “Stars of Tomorrow II” program exclusively for 2-year-olds last Saturday at Churchill Downs. The four-bagger helped swell McPeek's purse earnings this year to a career-high $6.7 million.

“Had a good meet,” McPeek said. “Had a good fall.”

Smile Happy, a son of champion sprinter Runhappy, remained unbeaten in two career starts with a 3 ¼-length victory in the 1 1/16-mile Kentucky Jockey Club.

“He's a really, really good horse,” McPeek said. “He's going to go to Florida initially and we're probably going to bring him up for the Southwest and possibly the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby.”

The $750,000 Southwest Stakes (G3) Jan. 29, $1 million Rebel Stakes (G2) Feb. 26 and $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) April 2 conclude Oaklawn's four-race Kentucky Derby points series.

Smile Happy races for the Lucky Seven Stable of Mike Mackin, who campaigned 2001 Rebel winner Crafty Shaw with now-retired trainer Pete Vestal. Crafty Shaw also ran third in the Southwest and seventh in the Arkansas Derby.

McPeek is scheduled to start three horses Saturday at Oaklawn, including Oliviaofthedesert and Semble Juste in the inaugural $150,000 Mistletoe Stakes for 3-year-old fillies at 1 1/16 miles. Laughing Boy, McPeek said, “will probably be entered” in the inaugural $150,000 Poinsettia Stakes for 3-year-olds at 1 1/16 miles Dec. 11 at Oaklawn. Laughing Boy finished second in a Nov. 25 allowance race at Churchill Downs.

“Horses just shipped in last night, but I'll be there for a little bit,” McPeek said. “I've got a team that's coming from my Churchill barn that's already there. We've only got eight in there right now, so we're getting them settled in. It's taken some time logistically to move everybody.”

With John Ed Anthony of Hot Springs as a major client, McPeek won 40 races in 2012-2017 at Oaklawn, including the $75,000 Arkansas Breeders' Stakes in 2015 with Trace Creek and the $125,000 Spring Fever Stakes in 2017 with Kathballu.

McPeek's last Oaklawn victory came with Swiss Skydiver in the $400,000 Fantasy Stakes (G3) in 2020. Swiss Skydiver went on to beat males in the Preakness – the final leg of the revamped Triple Crown – en route to an Eclipse Award as the country's champion 3-year-old filly of 2020.

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Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card: Life Is Good … Getting Better

Last week's grading period came and went without a Report Card on the winners of the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes from Gulfstream Park, the G3 Southwest Stakes from Oaklawn and the listed John Battaglia Memorial Stakes from Turfway Park. The author got a little behind on his homework.

We'll review those three races from Feb. 26-27 and three big 85 point Kentucky Derby preps that were run last Saturday: the G2 Gotham Stakes from Aqueduct, G2 Tampa Bay Derby from Tampa Bay Downs and G2 San Felipe Stakes from Santa Anita. The winners of those three races assured themselves a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate on May 1.

Of the six races, I'd have to rank the San Felipe the most impactful, at least in recent history, with two of the last seven winners (Authentic in 2020 and California Chrome in 2014) having gone on to victory in the Kentucky Derby. At the other end of the spectrum is the John Battaglia Memorial which has a roster of winners that reads like a “who's that?” Strikingly more significant than the Battaglia is the Gotham, which hasn't produced a Kentucky Derby winner from among its winners since Triple Crown winner Secretariat in 1973. There have been some very good horses since then to win the Gotham, but not so much in the last decade. Let's face it: the best New York horses are still in Florida on the first Saturday in March.

Here's a quick analysis of all the points races of the past two weeks, from best to worst in terms of my grading scale, which is based on my personal eyeball test, Beyer Speed Figures received, historical significance of the race and perceived quality of field.

March 6 – San Felipe Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Santa Anita

Was not that impressed with Life Is Good's G3 Sham Stakes victory on Jan. 2 when he idled down the stretch and was threatened late by Bob Baffert stablemate Medina Spirit, but the eight-length San Felipe win was something else again. The Into Mischief colt was simply too fast for his opposition, breaking from the rail under Mike Smith, controlling a quick pace (quarter miles in :23.63, :23.20, :23.72 and :24.91 before a final sixteenth in 6.72 seconds), and drawing off impressively while a bit erratic down the stretch, eventually finishing out in the middle of the track.

Life Is Good and Mike Smith winning the San Felipe Stakes by eight lengths

The San Felipe was G2 and included stakes veterans Medina Spirit, The Great One and Roman Centurian and impressive recent maiden winner Dream Shake for Peter Eurton (receiving a 96 Beyer Speed Figure on his debut).

Life Is Good received a 107 Beyer Speed Figure, up from his 101 in the Sham, and that puts him on the top of the heap at this stage of the season. Future wager players made him 2-1 in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager's March pool, the lowest odds for any individual horse in the March pool since the wager was inaugurated.

Grade: A

Feb. 27 – Southwest Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Oaklawn

It's hard to find fault with Brad Cox-trained Essential Quality, who ran his record to a perfect 4-for-4 while making his 2021 debut in the twice-delayed Southwest, run on a very sloppy racetrack. Breaking from the No. 1 post, jockey Luis Saez cleverly moved him to the three path into the first turn and sat just a few lengths behind quick but distance challenged Jackie's Warrior for a moderate six furlongs in 1:13.59. Saez moved the Tapit colt to the lead on the turn and it was quickly over as he drew off to a 4 ¼-length victory while demonstrating a paddling motion with his left front down the stretch.

Essential Quality rolled to his fourth consecutive win in the Southwest, his 2021 debut

Aside from the winner and Jackie's Warrior (a two-time G1 winner going one turn as a 2-year-old), the only other proven commodity in the Southwest lineup was Spielberg, the Baffert runner who won the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity by a nose over The Great One, a maiden at the time who came back to beat non-winners by 14 lengths and then was crushed by Life Is Good in the San Felipe. Essential Quality received a 96 Beyer Speed Figure, one point higher than his Breeders' Cup Juvenile victory.

Grade: A-

Feb. 27 – Fountain of Youth, 1 1/16 miles, Gulfstream Park

Not unlike Essential Quality in the Southwest, even-money favorite  Greatest Honour (also by Tapit) was chasing a fast one-turn horse, Drain the Clock, unsuccessfully trying to stretch his speed around two turns in the Fountain of Youth.

For most of the race, the Shug McGaughey runner did not look comfortable while racing in eighth and ninth in the 10-horse field. When Jose Ortiz guided him five wide to the outside on the far turn, he took off, gaining five lengths in the final furlong and drawing away to a 1 ½-length victory. He received an 89 Beyer Speed Figure, identical to the number he got while winning the Holy Bull Stakes four weeks earlier.

Greatest Honour and Jose Ortiz winning the Fountain of Youth

However, he made up ground on a horse that doesn't want to go this far, and if Greatest Honour doesn't like getting dirt in his face with a 10-horse field at Gulfstream, what's it going to be like at Churchill Downs with an expected 20-horse field for the Kentucky Derby? It doesn't appear as if his connections have an option to put him closer to the lead as he has yet to show any tactical speed.

Grade: B+

March 6 – Tampa Bay Derby, 1 1/16 miles, Tampa Bay Downs

Mark Casse-trained Helium first caught my eye last fall at Woodbine when he displayed a very nice turn of foot to win the listed Display Stakes going away. That race was on the Canadian track's Tapeta synthetic surface and Helium is from the first crop of Ironicus, a Distorted Humor stallion who only won on turf during his 15-race career from ages 2 to 5. I was skeptical that he could pack the same punch on dirt.

I was also skeptical of the Tampa Bay Derby favorite, Candy Man Rocket, who was coming off a win in the G3 Sam F. Davis over the same track that I graded a C- because it looked as though the Candy Ride colt was being stretched to the limit distance wise.

Helium had shown speed in his sprint starts at Woodbine and Casse's Plan A was for jockey Jose Ferrer to put him close to the lead. That went out the window when he broke slowly and had just two horses beat for the opening quarter mile.

Helium won for the third time in three starts, taking the Tampa Bay Derby under Jose Ferrer

Ferrer kept Helium to the far outside in the run down the backstretch and around the far turn, and Casse's runner was battling for the lead with front-running Boca Boy, who'd led and then tired in the stretch in the Sam F. Davis. Helium put him away, then was quickly joined by third-place Sam F. Davis finisher Hidden Stash, who pressed Helium for the final furlongs but couldn't get past, losing by three-quarters in a nice effort.

The winner's 84 Beyer Speed Figure compared favorably to his 75 on Tapeta last October but is low among the Derby prep race winners this winter. Casse has talked about not running the horse again before the Kentucky Derby, so although Helium would enter the classic unbeaten in three starts, he'd still be a pretty big price.

Grade: C+

March 6 – Gotham Stakes, one mile, Aqueduct

Chad Brown-trained Highly Motivated was the heavy favorite here as he made his first start since winning the listed Nyquist Stakes going 6 ½ furlongs at Keeneland on the Breeders' Cup undercard Nov. 6. He bobbled at the start, then had a nightmare trip with traffic in the early stages of this one-turn mile race. Second betting choice was Freedom Fighter, coming off a second-place finish in the G2 San Vicente at Santa Anita for Bob Baffert, losing to highly touted stablemate Concert Tour by a half-length.

Freedom Fighter broke sharply and led through moderate fractions while being dogged by 46-1 longshot Weyburn, a James Jerkens-trained colt by Pioneerof the Nile ridden by Trevor McCarthy. Weyburn put the Baffert runner away inside the quarter pole then was challenged by Chad Brown's other runner, Crowded Trade, who, like Weyburn broke his maiden this winter at Aqueduct. Crowded Trade, a More Than Ready colt, put his nose in front inside the furlong pole but Weyburn fought back in the final yards to prevail by a nose.

Weyburn (inside) re-rallied in deep stretch to win the Gotham over Crowded Trade

The top two horses received a 95 Beyer Speed Figure, with Highly Motivated finishing third, 1 ¾ lengths back after a tough trip, and earning a 92 Beyer. As I wrote in the intro, the best of the New York Thoroughbred population head south to Florida for the winter and both Weyburn and Crowded Trade remained in New York. Highly Motivated trained for his debut at Payson Park in Florida and probably will accomplish more than the two who beat him.

Grade: C

Feb. 26 – John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Turfway Park

A workmanlike victory in his stakes debut gave the William Morey-trained Hush of a Storm 10 Kentucky Derby points in the Battaglia and he received an 86 Beyer Speed Figure for the effort.

The Creative Cause colt didn't do anything wrong in winning the Battaglia on the synthetic Tapeta surface at the Northern Kentucky track, but there was not a lot behind him, with the exception of Gretzky the Great, who'd won the G1 Summer Stakes on turf at Woodbine last year. He'll need more points, obviously, and the only way to earn them will be on the dirt and against much stiffer competition.

Grade: C-

 

 

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Arkansas Derby Or Blue Grass Next For Champion Essential Quality

Champion Essential Quality emerged in good order from his victory in the $750,000 Southwest Stakes (G3) for 3-year-olds Saturday at Oaklawn in Hot Springs, Ark., the unbeaten colt's trainer, Brad Cox, said Sunday morning.

Essential Quality received a preliminary Beyer Speed Figure of 96, a career high, for his 4 ¼-length victory in the Southwest, Oaklawn's second of four Kentucky Derby points races. The odds-on favorite under Luis Saez, Essential Quality ($3.80) covered 1 1/16 miles over a sloppy track in 1:45.58. The gray son of Tapit was making his first start since clinching an Eclipse Award as the country's champion 2-year-old male in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) Nov. 6 at Keeneland.

“Big performance off the layoff,” Cox said. “Hopefully, we can take another jump or two forward, I think, in order to win the Derby. Hopefully, he has it in him. It was a very nice race yesterday.”

Essential Quality, a homebred for Godolphin LLC, will return to his winter base at Fair Grounds to begin major preparations for his final Kentucky Derby prep, Cox said, although he's “not sure” when the colt will leave Hot Springs. Cox said the $800,000 Blue Grass Stakes (G2) April 3 at Keeneland and the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) April 10 at Oaklawn are the most likely next-race targets.

“We'll get with the Godolphin team, between Jimmy Bell and Dan Pride, and come up with a plan,” Cox said. “I'd have to say either the Blue Grass or the Arkansas Derby. That's about the only thing, really, that makes sense. If something happens as far as weather goes, I guess you could probably look at the Florida Derby. But in this region of the country, I think the most logical spot would be the Arkansas Derby or the Blue Grass.”

Cox has never had a Kentucky Derby starter, but he has three live contenders two months before the first leg of horse racing's Triple Crown.

In addition to Essential Quality, Cox trains Caddo River, record-setting winner of the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes Jan. 22 at Oaklawn, and Mandaloun, winner of the $400,000 Risen Star Stakes (G2) Feb. 13 Fair Grounds.

Caddo River, a homebred for John Ed Anthony of Hot Springs, is scheduled to make his next start in the $1 million Rebel Stakes (G2) March 13 at Oaklawn. Mandaloun is ticketed for the $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2) March 20 at Fair Grounds.

“It's all coming together like we kind of envisioned it a couple of months ago,” Cox said. “But we've got two more months, and on the Derby trail that's a long way.”

Mandaloun (52) ranks second on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard, according to Churchill Downs. Essential Quality earned 10 points for his Southwest victory and is No. 3 with 40. Caddo River (10) is No. 18.

The Rebel will offer 85 points (50-20-10-5, respectively) to the top four finishers toward starting eligibility for the Kentucky Derby, which is limited to 20 starters. Caddo River collected 10 points for his 10 ¼-length victory in the Smarty Jones. The Louisiana Derby, Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby are all 170-point races (100-40-20-10).

“He needs to run in a race with some points,” Cox said of Caddo River. “Obviously, Essential Quality had 30 going into yesterday. Picked off 10, so 40 is obviously a good number, with another chance at a 100-point race at some point. Mandaloun is at 52. He's in good shape. Obviously, he'll get a chance at his 100-point race. Caddo River's the one that's going to have to step up in a points race and pick off some points.”

Caddo River had been training at Oaklawn before Cox said he moved the colt to Fair Grounds Feb. 11, just as harsh winter weather was beginning to envelope Hot Springs. Oaklawn lost eight live racing dates and 11 days of training because heavy snow and arctic temperatures. The Southwest was originally scheduled to be run Feb. 15 before being postponed twice. Caddo River has recorded three published workouts at Fair Grounds, including a five-furlong bullet (:59.60) Feb. 20.

“He'll stay down there,” Cox said, referring to Caddo River's final major Rebel preparations.

Two other scheduled Rebel starters are Keepmeinmind for trainer Robertino Diodoro and unbeaten Concert Tour for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert.

Keepmeinmind had been scheduled to make his 3-year-old debut in the Southwest before weather-related training setbacks led Diodoro to opt for the Rebel. Keepmeinmind returned to the work tab Friday morning at Oaklawn, working five furlongs in 1:03.20 under regular rider David Cohen. The track was rated sloppy.

“Very strong gallop out,” Diodoro said. “He was rolling on the gallop out.”

Unraced since a last-to-first victory in the $200,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) Nov. 28 at Churchill Downs, Keepmeinmind has recorded seven workouts this year at Oaklawn. Prior to breaking his maiden in the Kentucky Jockey Club, Keepmeinmind finished second in the $400,000 Breeders' Futurity (G1) Oct. 3 at Keeneland and third in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) Nov. 6 at Keeneland.

Keepmeinmind was beaten 3 ¼ lengths by Essential Quality in the Breeders' Futurity and two lengths by Essential Quality in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Diodoro had another close look at the champion Saturday, this time as a highly interested spectator.

“The winner is a very nice horse,” Diodoro said Sunday morning. “The way the track and the weather was, I'm kind of glad we didn't run. Not saying that couldn't happen in three weeks, either. Hopefully, not. The track has taken a beating here the last couple of weeks. No one can stop Mother Nature.”

Southwest runner-up Spielberg came out of the race in “great shape,” Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas said Sunday morning. Lukas and assistant Sebastian Nicholl have been caring for the Baffert-trained Spielberg since he was flown Wednesday from Southern California to Arkansas. Baffert said next-race plans are pending for Spielberg, who overcame a horrific start to finish 4 ¼ lengths ahead of multiple Grade 1 winner Jackie's Warrior.

“There's not a plane for a little while there,” Baffert said. “I haven't really mapped out anything. I wanted to see how he handled that track and all. I'm very happy with the effort. He shipped well. He behaved himself. Other than the gate, everything went well.”

Baffert has won the Rebel a record seven times, including last year's running with Nadal. Concert Tour (2 for 2) broke his maiden Jan. 15 at Santa Anita and won the $200,000 San Vicente (G2) Feb. 6 at Santa Anita. Nadal's resume was exactly the same entering the Rebel.

Keepmeinmind (18) and Spielberg (17) rank sixth and seventh, respectively, on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard. Concert Tour has never run in a Kentucky Derby points race.

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The Week in Review: Tapit Supplies Favors for 20th Birthday Bash

Birthdays with a zero on the end are supposed to be momentous occasions, and 20-year-old Tapit sure knows how to celebrate in style.

On Saturday, the Gainesway stallion even supplied the party favors for a double-barreled bash in his honor on the GI Kentucky Derby trail.

Exactly two decades after Tapit's Feb. 27, 2001, foaling date, two of his sons delivered sky's-the-limit performances as winning favorites in key 3-year-old prep stakes that firmly established both atop of the current crop of aspirants to wear a blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May.

The near-term debate will now center on which colt–Essential Quality or Greatest Honour–deserves kingpin billing on the sophomore totem pole.

An equally intriguing subplot involves whether either can deliver a first Derby win for the sire who has evolved into the most influential stallion of the 21st Century. Tapit has produced eight divisional champions, six Breeders' Cup winners and three GI Belmont S. victors. But siring a Derby winner has thus far eluded the now-whitened gray, just as the Derby itself did in 2004 when Tapit splashed home ninth as one of the favorites.

Undefeated 'Quality'

   Essential Quality had his 3-year-old debut delayed by two weeks because winter weather thrice forced the rescheduling of the GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn. Yet Mother Nature still managed to intercede by imposing a sloppy (sealed) racing surface Saturday.

The undefeated juvenile champ and 'TDN Rising Star' broke fluidly and responded to a cue to rate from rider Luis Saez, settling fifth into the clubhouse turn while vacating the rail and opting for a three-wide berth (in the gooey going, every jockey in the race avoided the rail like it was strung with barbed wire).

The big matchup in the Southwest was supposed to be the tear-away speed of 6-5 second favorite Jackie's Warrior (Maclean's Music) versus the high-cruise stalking skills of 9-to-10 choice Essential Quality, and the race unfolded as scripted in the early stages with “Jackie” leading the charge through a :23.52 opening quarter that jockey Joel Rosario then milked to a :48.11 breather of a half mile.

“EQ” took firm hold of the bit and wanted to pull, but Saez harnessed that keenness effectively and got the champ to edge forward incrementally while outside and in the clear for the backstretch run. Against the hazy blur of fog, the gray made headway at a metronomic rate of one position per furlong, attaining and releasing each target in a measured manner before focusing adeptly on the next.

EQ had given up real estate on both turns, but was full of momentum coming over the top at the quarter pole, getting second run on the caving Jackie (whose Derby stock slipped considerably after a second failed try at two turns). But Essential Quality had to brace for a fresh challenge in the form of Spielberg (Union Rags), who was unwinding from last and finishing fast after getting off to a stutter-step start.

The champ was up to the task. Essential Quality switched leads and took off when Saez asked, widening to the wire to win by 4 1/4 lengths in 1:45.48 for 1 1/16 miles, which translated to a 96 Beyer Speed Figure, an improvement of one point over his Juvenile win back in November. (The other same-distance races on the card were the GIII Razorback H., run 90 minutes earlier for older males, which clocked :01.15 faster, and an allowance-optional claimer nightcap for older males one race after the Southwest that went :0.75 slower.)

The Apr. 3 GII Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland (where Essential Quality is 2-for-2) or the Apr. 10 GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn are reportedly under consideration as final Derby tune-ups by trainer Brad Cox.

'Greatest' Without Ease

While Essential Quality's Southwest S. win stamped him as a Derby contender who is fluidly polishing his prowess, the even-money favored win by Greatest Honour in Gulfstream's GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. (FOY) resonated more like an unleashing of brute force by a deep closer who ate a lot of kickback, totally lost his momentum on the far turn, then stormed home relentlessly despite a short-stretch configuration that does not play to off-the-tailgate tactics.

The raw power demonstrated by Greatest Honour in winning three 1 1/16 miles races this winter at Gulfstream has to be considered within the context that races at that distance at that track start very close to the first turn and end at the sixteenth pole. This often tilts the advantage to speed-centric runners, and the FOY in particular has been a house of horrors for well-backed “headline” horses. Prior to Saturday, FOY faves had lost the last four runnings and 13 of the previous 15 editions.

Jockey Jose Ortiz guided Greatest Honour to his customary spot near the back of the bunch in the FOY. Settling inside, the rugged bay wasn't crazy about being pelted with dirt, but he was hemmed in at the fence until the far turn. When Ortiz tried to edge out, Greatest Honour's back end got bumped by an outside rival, and the favorite appeared for a moment as if he was going to plummet back through the pack.

When a long-striding horse gets stopped like that, it can be difficult to get him back into rhythm. By the three-eighths pole (which is 2 1/2 furlongs from the wire on this configuration), Greatest Honour was still nine lengths adrift. He sparked back into stride when Ortiz switched him outside, but at the top of the lane, one furlong from the short-stretch finish, the colt was still five lengths off the action and under the whip.

Once in the clear on the straightaway though, Greatest Honour fully uncoiled. Granted, he ran down a tiring leader to win by 1 1/4 lengths in 1:44.02 (89 Beyer). But the visual impression he made carries more weight than any speed number. Watching him gobble up ground so voraciously led to automatic thoughts about what havoc a monster like this might be able to wreak given a longer stretch over extended distances.

Trainer Shug McGuaghey indicated the Mar. 27 GI Florida Derby was likely next. “I'm glad we don't have to run a mile and a sixteenth anymore,” he added. “When they're going farther, I think we might see a little better horse.”

Both Essential Quality (Godolphin) and Greatest Honour (Courtlandt Farms) are homebreds.

But for Courtlandt's Donald Adam, the connection to Tapit is gratifying on a different level.

“I bought the mare [Tiffany's Honour] in foal to a Tapit colt, and that colt hit the ground and was killed in a paddock accident,” Adam said post-race. “So, I bred her back to Tapit and got [Greatest Honour].”

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