Value Sires Part IV: It’s All Relative

We're at the top end now when it comes to stallion fees, but there is quite a range to those prices, which for this feature is anything above £/€20,000. There is of course a massive difference, certainly when it comes to value, in a stallion standing at £35,000 and one at £350,000. In fact, we have two at that latter fee, which makes Frankel (GB) and Dubawi (Ire), the champion sires of the last two years in Britain and Ireland, the most expensive stallions in the world.

Those two representatives of Juddmonte and Darley respectively live within a mile of each other as the crow flies over the stud farms encircling Newmarket. Add to that mighty pair the names of Kingman (GB) at £125,000 and Baaeed (GB) at £80,000, and you have four of the top ten European stallions by price all within that square mile of excellence. 

It's not all about Newmarket, of course, with the Aga Khan Studs standing the most expensive stallion in France, Siyouni (Fr), at €200,000, the same fee commanded by their Sea The Stars (Ire) in Ireland, where he matches Wootton Bassett (GB), who heads the Coolmore roster. The lucky ones among us were those who jumped aboard the Siyouni and Wootton Bassett supporters' buses when those two stallions started out at €7,000 and €6,000 respectively. In bloodstock, as in life, there's a lot to be said for those who have carved out their own lofty niches from humble origins. 

Of course, with this level of sire power, one needs a mare of equally high standing, whether on the racecourse or as a producer or both. Many of the resulting offspring are retained to race by major owner-breeders, and those that do make it to the sales ring can be expected to fetch the level of return that could make even these high fees look good value. It's all relative. 

Dependable

At a more reachable level for many breeders comes this dependable trio – two we can most certainly call stalwarts and one who stamped his presence on the business with his first few crops. 

We discussed Yeomanstown Stud's Dark Angel (Ire) in greater depth in TDN last August. For 2024, he remains at €60,000, which was his fee for the preceding three seasons and down from three years at €85,000 between 2018 and 2020. Admittedly, his yearling sales average, which was in six figures for seven straight seasons, has dipped a little in the last few years and to a certain degree he is perhaps a victim of his own success, with various sons and other younger stallions of a similar profile encroaching on this popular sprinter/miler territory. But he had 77 yearlings sold at an average of £88,637 in 2023 which isn't bad going and, now 19, he was also third in the general sires' table behind Frankel and Dubawi.

From one O'Callaghan family farm to another, we switch to Tally-Ho Stud. At 23, Kodiac (GB) is into veteran territory but he is also at his lowest fee for nine years at €35,000. You pretty much know what you're going to get with him because he's been there, done that, siring plenty of fast colts and fillies and regularly providing the highest number of winners in a season. He hasn't lost his touch, as demonstrated last year by his Group 1-winning son and now stable-mate Good Guess (GB) and the G2 Lowther S. winner Relief Rally (Ire).

Before Good Guess gets a shot at the title, the most credible threat to Kodiac's crown within the Tally-Ho empire comes from Mehmas (Ire), who tore up the first-season sire record books in 2020 and has continued to build on that great start. His European results are backed up by some notable success in America, which should put his sales stock, whether as yearlings or horses in training, on the radar of a wider range of buyers, and at €50,000 in 2024, his fee has come down from last year's high of €60,000. 

His two-year-olds of this year were conceived in his first book after that break-out season of 2020, so we can expect the level of of his mates that year to have risen in line with his fee. That is not always a guarantee of increased success but I wouldn't want to bet against Mehmas continuing to be one of the most exciting younger sires in the European ranks. His equable temperament, and that of many of his offspring, appears to be what sets him apart.

Versatile

If you're looking for a stallion with the potential to get you a Classic winner at a mid-level price then the names of Teofilo (Ire) at €30,000, Sea The Moon (Ger) at £32,500, and Galiway (GB) at €30,000 should all be considered.

It would be wrong to compartmentalise Teofilo as a staying stallion, though he is very good at that, as his Melbourne Cup-winning sons Without A Fight (Ire), Twilight Payment (Ire) and Cross Counter (GB) show, not to mention the Ascot Gold Cup winner Subjectivist (GB). But there is much more in Teofilo's playbook than that, and he remains a hugely dependable sire across the distances, and of fillies too, from the Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Pleascach (Ire) to Irish St Leger winner Voleuse De Coeurs (Ire). If you also factor in some of his achievements as a broodmare sire – Coroebus (Ire), Mac Swiney (Ire), Cachet (Ire) and Dreamloper (Ire) are among the Group 1 winners in that category – and a case can be made for Teofilo being an elite sire at a much more affordable fee than some in that category. 

Sea The Moon has defied the level of commercial acceptability usually granted to winners of the Deutsches Derby and throughout his career to date has posted very consistent sales returns via his yearlings. His fee has remained sensible – starting at £15,000 for the first six seasons, and then rising steadily to £22,500, then £25,000 and to his current high of £32,500. No doubt helped by the fact that he tends to get very good-looking stock, Sea The Moon has a following in both hemispheres despite never having left Lanwades since retiring to stud, and he coasts into 2024 having sired the winners of the equivalents of the Derby and the Oaks in his native Germany, where he is the champion sire.

Climbing up the ranks in France is Galiway, whose two Group 1 winners are the full-brothers Sealiway (Fr), who was also busy last year at Haras de Beaumont, and Classic prospect Sunway (Fr). We can perhaps expect Galiway to make as much of an impact at the Cheltenham Festival as he may do at Chantilly or Epsom, and that has increased his appeal to the National Hunt crowd, with another of his sons, Kenway (Fr), having recently joined Coolagown Stud in Ireland. 

But it is the Flat with which we are chiefly concerned here, and Galiway's French yearling results last year – six sold at Arqana in August for an average of €131,667 and 23 in October for a €44,761 average, all from his 2021 fee of €12,000 fee – make him a stallion worthy of closer attention. Since 2021, his price has increased to €30,000.

The Next Step

This year is a critical one for the two young stallions who made the biggest impression with their first-crop runners in 2023. Understandably, both Blue Point (Ire) and Too Darn Hot (GB) have been given fee increases, the former from €35,000 to €60,000 and the latter from £40,000 to £65,000. Getting a mare in to either of these Darley stallions might have been the toughest first challenge for the many breeders who wanted to use them at their higher fees. There is plenty of sales-ring and some racecourse evidence to back up those decisions, and a Group 1-winning three-year-old, preferably a Classic winner, will be required to keep these reputations soaring.

A year ahead of them is Coolmore's Sioux Nation, whose juveniles of this year were conceived at his lowest fee of €10,000. He is now at €27,500 thanks to the exploits of the hugely likeable Brave Emperor (Ire) and Matilda Picotte (Ire) among his 10 Group winners from his two crops of runners to race. Sioux Nation was third in the second-season sires' table last year behind Ace Impact's sire Cracksman (GB) and Havana Grey (GB), and while the latter had the highest number of black-type winners (11), Sioux Nation was represented by the most Group winners of this intake (7). He is definitely a horse to watch, even though his fee has increased by €10,000 in the last year.

Everything to Prove

I'm going to pitch in two names here who are teetering on the brink of triumph or disaster. That's not actually true, of course, but such is the knee-jerk reaction to the early results of stallions by industry people who really should know better, that some horses can be commercially 'dead' before we have even had a proper chance to see what they can do. If mass desertion by breeders follows then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy that the stallion will fail, sometimes through no actual fault of his own, other than the fact that he is unlikely to get you a Brocklesby winner. 

Anyway, as I climb down off my soapbox for the umpteenth time with the fading hope that folks will just wait'n'see awhile, I will put forward Ghaiyyath (Ire) at €25,000 and Hello Youmzain (Fr) at €22,500 as two of the more interesting names among those with first runners in 2024. 

A dual Group 1-winning son of Kodiac, Hello Youmzain's yearlings were in demand in Deauville last year and he must be odds-on to be France's leading first-season sire this year. He covered 140 mares in his first season at Haras d'Etreham at his opening fee of €25,000.

Ghaiyyath's fee has also been trimmed slightly from his starting point of €30,000. Not all sons of Dubawi are created equal, of course, and there is now no shortage of them at stud, but Night Of Thunder (Ire), bred on the same cross as the 130-rated Ghaiyyath, and Too Darn Hot, bred on a similar cross, have set the bar high. 

Both Hello Youmzain and Ghaiyyath became Group winners themselves for the first time in the second half of their juvenile seasons. If their offspring can follow suit, it is easy to imagine that both stallions could be more expensive by this time next year.

TDN Value Podium

Bronze: Acclamation (GB), Rathbarry Stud, €25,000

If we are spruiking Dark Angel and Mehmas in this piece, then we must have their sire on the podium. At 25, Acclamation is still going strong and is an increasingly significant influence. As last year's G1 Hong Kong Cup and G1 Cox Plate winner Romantic Warrior (Ire) showed, he is far from just a one-trick pony, though he is obviously best known as a sire of sprinters, with the brilliant Marsha (Ire) among them. Al Shaqab's Orne (Ire), who was bred at home by Rathbarry, has Classic claims ahead of this season, and with Acclamation's fee sliding down from his career-high of €40,000 in 2018 and 2019, he's very much still one to keep on your side. 

Silver: Pinatubo (Ire), Dalham Hall Stud, £35,000

Perhaps boosted by the success of his fellow son of Shamardal, Blue Point, last year, Pinatubo seems to be many people's idea of this season's leading freshman in waiting. If you had the chance to see him last week during Darley's open days, then it would be hard to disagree, as he has swagger and substance in spades. 

His yearling average of almost £154,000 for 41 sold tells of his commercial popularity to date. It's up to him now, and up his sleeve he has the fact that he is from the same family as Invincible Spirit and Kodiac. 

Pinatubo has remained at £35,000 throughout his stud career and that could look very reasonable if his stock live up to expectations this year. 

Gold: Sottsass (Fr), Coolmore, €25,000

We hear a lot about 'stallion-making races' and I'm not sure I believe in the concept, but all we need to know about Sottsass is that he won the G1 Prix du Jockey Club and the G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe – two races that most owners would give their eyeteeth to win – not to mention the G1 Prix Ganay and G2 Prix Niel. He was also third in the Arc as a three-year-old behind the older horses Waldgeist (GB) and Enable (GB).

Sottsass is from one of the current 'it' families, with his half-siblings including the stellar Sistercharlie (Ire) and My Sister Nat (Fr), while full-brother Shin Emperor (Fr) looks a Grade 1, or even Classic, winner in the making in Japan this year.

He is the first cab off the rank when it comes to Coolmore's sons of Siyouni (Fr). In general, his first yearlings looked athletic and together, and they may raise a few eyebrows by coming to hand sooner than expected. More importantly, however, they should go on, and as we know, it's best to rely on a Classic winner to get you a Classic winner.

 

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Racing’s Crystal Ball – 10 Predictions For 2024

Anyone who bets on racing will know too well the perils that come with predicting the outcome of a sporting event. But what if we take it a couple of steps further and, for a bit of fun, try and gaze into the crystal ball and see what could be in store for 2024?

From Frankie Dettori returning to the saddle in Europe to Wathnan Racing continuing its march in Britain, here are 10 predictions-some fun and some serious-for the new year. 

Dettori's Groundhog Day To Continue Into 2024

We've all seen the movie Groundhog Day, haven't we? The one where Bill Murray gets caught in a time loop? Well, if you haven't, the same script could well be playing out for real through Frankie Dettori's retirement [or lack thereof].

For all the people who had convinced themselves that Dettori had achieved a dream send-off when guiding King Of Steel to victory in the Champion S. at Ascot, there were just as many people rolling their eyes at the idea that one of the world's greatest riders was ready to set off into the sunset. 

Of course, Dettori has committed to ride on in America for the winter but, what happens after that? What happens if a big-ticket ride becomes available for a Guineas or a Derby? Don't tell me that Dettori, who arguably rode as well last year as he has in years, is going to give up on that opportunity for the sake of staying true to his word?

The farewell tour served its purpose and generated a subplot for almost every major meeting that Dettori rode at in 2023. However, the thought that we have seen the last of Frankie in Europe is not something I'd be taking short odds on this year. 

Classic Glory On The Cards For Blue Point?

From a bloodstock perspective, Blue Point hogged just as many headlines as Frankie did throughout 2023. Tipped by many to scoop first-season sire honours, Blue Point delivered in no uncertain terms, coming up trumps with two genuine top-notchers in Big Evs and Rosallion. 

The latter has real claims of bagging Classic glory for his young sire sensation this year and is just 12-1 to land the 2,000 Guineas. Big Evs proved he is a classy sprinter to look forward to when bagging the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and the likelihood of him landing a major sprint in Europe is strong. 

It's worth noting that Blue Point's most famous triumphs, his back-to-back Royal Ascot successes in the King's Stand S. and Diamond Jubilee S. back in 2019, came in his five-year-old campaign. The best may yet be to come from his progeny in 2024 and beyond and, if he is to bag a breakthrough Classic success, perhaps it may come through Rosallion in the Irish 2,000 Guineas provided City Of Troy stays away. 

Bank On Sangster To Have A Big Year

Oliver Sangster | Keeneland

Speaking of breakthrough successes at the highest level, there is a chance that up-and-coming trainer Ollie Sangster can bag a first Group 1 or even Classic victory with stable star Shuwari this season. 

Grandson of the late Robert Sangster, Ollie has done his bit to keep the family name in lights and enjoyed a stellar debut season as a trainer by sending out 13 winners from 81 runners, highlighted by the Fillies' Mile runner-up Shuwari. 

According to those who know Sangster best, there are few trainers who work as hard as the 27-year-old, who would be thoroughly deserving of a major day in the sun in 2024. Here's hoping Shuwari can provide Sangster just that and her 1,000 Guineas claims would be greatly aided by the word soft appearing in the going description. 

Tough Task For City Of Troy To Live Up To Lofty Reputation

City Of Troy proved himself to be something out of the ordinary as a two-year-old by going unbeaten in three starts, culminating with a jaw-dropping performance in the Dewhurst. 

It was after the Dewhurst where Aidan O'Brien described City Of Troy as being the best two-year-old he has ever trained while Michael Tabor took it up a notch or two by comparing the horse to Frankel.

City Of Troy has generated much debate since that brilliant Dewhurst display but perhaps it might be wisest to side with Mick Kinane, who, in acknowledging the awesome talent the Ballydoyle-trained colt clearly has, said that he still has a lot to prove in order to be compared with the likes of Sea The Stars and Frankel

Certainly at this juncture, City Of Troy would appear the most likely winner of the 2,000 Guineas, which his general even-money odds reflects. However, whether we will be speaking of him in the same ilk as Frankel come the end of the season, now that is a big ask. 

One thing that isn't up for debate is that Justify is quickly confirming himself as a very serious stallion, not only in America and Australia, but also in Europe. Not long after City Of Troy recorded his Dewhurst demolition, Justify's daughter Opera Singer did something similar in the Prix Marcel Boussac.

Both horses sit at the head of the 2,000 and 1,000 Guineas betting respectively and it will be fascinating to see how their careers progress this term. 

Japan To Win The Derby

Yoshito Yahagi | Emma Berry

Now this would be a bit of fun; what if Japan were to win the Derby? Or, if I was to be more specific, what if trainer Yoshito Yahagi was to take out another major prize on the international circuit by sending out a brother to Sottsass to score at Epsom? You know, it's not impossible. 

Shin Emperor is clearly bred for the job. Bought by Yahagi, who has recorded major success at the Breeders' Cup, Dubai World Cup and Saudi Cup meetings in recent years, for €2.1 million at Arqana in 2021, Shin Emperor has always been held in high regard. 

A Group 3 winner already in Japan, he went down by less than a length in the G1 Hopeful S. at Nakayama over the festive period, doing his reputation no harm in the process. 

Yahagi is famous for travelling his horses all over the world and, in Shin Emperor, he has a colt who clearly fits the Derby profile being a brother to the Arc winner Sottsass. In betting terms, this is one of the more fanciful predictions for 2024, but what a story it would be. 

Pinatubo To Emulate Blue Point 

Sottsass, of course, is one of the first-season stallions that many enthusiasts are looking forward to this year. While his stock has gone down extremely well, highlighted by the sale of a €525,000 colt at Arqana last year, it seems as though everyone who is anyone is tipping Pinatubo to emulate Blue Point by coming up trumps for Darley yet again. 

Many of the top industry judges hitched their wagon to Blue Point's wheel last year and we all know how that ended. The same theme developed at the yearling and foal sales last year with Pinatubo and to a similar extent with fellow Darley stallions Earthlight and Ghaiyyath. One thing's for certain: Darley appears to hold all the aces with a view towards this year's first-season sires' championship and, while it is only January, few people will be betting against Pinatubo being a big success. 

It should also be noted how well Hello Youmzain performed with his stock at the sales in France. He could be well placed to clinch champion first-season honours in France. 

Breeze-Up Market To Stay Strong Despite Market Correction

There were some tough moments in 2023 and it's fair to say that the yearling and breeding stock sales were a struggle for many. Market correction was a term we heard plenty of as many of the key figures at some of the major sales in Europe settled back into pre-Covid levels. 

With that in mind, there is understandably some apprehension heading into the new year and the first major metric into how well things are going in 2024 will come at the breeze-up sales.

But just how much of a correction can we expect to see here? There seems to be a huge demand for the ready-to-run horses and the breeze-up sales have never been a more popular shopping outlet for international buyers than it is now. 

It should also be noted that unbeaten two-year-old and dual Group 1 winner Vandeek, who sold to Anthony Stroud for 625,000gns at the Craven Breeze-Up Sale at Tattersalls last year, did his bit to fly the flag for this sector of the market. 

In many ways, the breeze-up market could be viewed as something of an anomaly as, similar to the point-to-point sphere, there should, in theory, always be a demand for a good horse. 

The middle to upper tiers can be expected to be solid at the breeze-up sales come the spring but it will be interesting to see how the median and clearance rates hold up. 

Wathnan Racing To Continue Its March

Richard Brown: buys on behalf of Wathnan Racing | Zuzanna Lupa

One man who is sure to be out in force at the breeze-up sales is Blandford Bloodstock's Richard Brown but, perhaps most interesting of all, will be the bloodstock agent's buying on behalf of Wathnan Racing. 

Wathnan Racing embarked on ownership in Britain with a number of statement victories, none more so than when private purchase Courage Mon Ami won the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot on just his fourth career start. 

It's likely that Wathnan Racing, which is the ownership vehicle of the Emir Of Qatar, can go from strength to strength in 2024. 

Tough Times Ahead For Smaller Breeders 

Ed Harper of Whitsbury Manor Stud said something frightening in a recent TDN Q&A. When commenting on some of the smaller clients of his who enjoyed a touch when selling foals by the stud's superstar stallion Havana Grey, he revealed that for many, their big payday would be just enough to keep them going for just a few more years, such are the choppy waters the smaller breeders are navigating through right now. 

If you were to take an x-ray of the breeding game in its current form and peg it into the light, it wouldn't make for pretty reading, especially in Britain. That was there for everyone to see on the first and last days of the foal sales at Tattersalls in December where many key stakeholders voiced their concerns about the future of the smaller breeder in Britain. 

Of course, this is not a problem exclusive to Britain, but Brexit and the lack of small-time buyers and pinhookers getting into the game compared to Ireland clearly contributed to some of those frightening figures. 

It begs the question; for how long can this continue? Where there is a will there's a way, and in that same Q&A, Harper called on smaller breeders to take a look at themselves in the mirror when it comes to breeding horses for the sales ring. 

Some will take that advice and reinvest but, inevitably, more will slip away. It appears as though there could be some tough times ahead for the smaller breeders. 

No Sign Of Polarisation Slowing Down Over Jumps

On a similarly depressing theme, there doesn't appear to be any pause to polarisation in the markets, particularly when it comes to the National Hunt game. There could be a different winner to ever race at the Cheltenham festival and, chances are, people will still be honing in on the same two stallions at the major store sales. 

King George hero Hewick once again reminded that a good horse can come from anywhere. Shark Hanlon's 800 quid wonder is by Virtual, a son of Pivotal and, without doing the horse a disservice, is what many would describe as a non descript stallion. 

But here he is, siring the winner of one of the most important jumps races of the year, and once again proving that the love is more readily shared than what some would lead you to believe over jumps.

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Wootton Bassett up to €200,000; Paddington to Stand at €55,000

Coolmore has introduced three new names to its Irish roster for next year with Paddington (GB) heading the list of newcomers at €55,000. The son of Siyouni (Fr) won six of his eight races this year, including four Group 1 victories in the Irish 2,000 Guineas, St James's Palace, Eclipse, and Sussex S.

Little Big Bear (Ire), winner of the G1 Phoenix S. at two followed by the G2 Sandy Lane S. this year before finishing runner-up in the G1 Commonwealth Cup, will stand for €27,500. The Antarctic (Ire), a dual Group 3-winning brother to Battaash (Ire), joins Castle Hyde Stud at €6,000.

Of the current Coolmore residents, Wootton Bassett (GB), who covered 218 mares this year, leads the field at €200,000, up from €150,000 in 2023. He was represented with a new Grade I winner at the Breeders' Cup by Unquestionable (Fr) in the Juvenile Turf. His other top-level winners this year include King Of Steel and Bucanero Fuerte (Fr).

No Nay Never, who stood at €175,000 in 2023, is advertised at €150,000 for next season. He stands alongside four of his sons on the roster: Arizona (Ire) (€5,000), Blackbeard (Ire) (€20,000), Little Big Bear, as above, and Ten Sovereigns (Ire) (€17,500).

The European champion 2-year-old and 3-year-old St Mark's Basilica (Fr) will have his first foals for sale from later this month and his fee has been trimmed to €50,000. He has stood at €65,000 in his first two seasons at stud. Another son of Siyouni, the Arc winner Sottsass (Fr), will have his first runners on the track next year and will remain at €25,000.

Coolmore's David O'Loughlin told TDN Europe, “We're delighted to have three new exciting prospects for the coming season in the shape of Siyouni's brilliant son Paddington, No Nay Never's European champion 2-year-old Little Big Bear and Battaash's well-performed own-brother The Antarctic. Many of our stallions have enjoyed fantastic seasons but, in line with prevailing market conditions, we've decreased the fees of 10 of the 18 which remain on the roster from last year.”

A decision on whether Saturday's GI Breeders' Cup Turf winner Auguste Rodin (Ire) remains in training next year at four or retires to stud will be made next week.

The full list of Coolmore fees for 2024:

Arizona (Ire) €5,000
Australia (GB) €17,500
Blackbeard (Ire) €20,000
Calyx (GB) €12,500
Camelot (GB) €50,000
Churchill (Ire) €30,000
Footstepsinthesand (GB) €8,000
Gleneagles €17,500
Holy Roman Emperor (Ire) €8,000
Little Big Bear (Ire) €27,500
Magna Grecia (Ire) €10,000
No Nay Never €150,000
Paddington (GB) €55,000
Saxon Warrior (Jpn) €25,000
Sioux Nation €27,500
Sottsass (Fr) €25,000
St Mark's Basilica (Fr) €50,000
Starspangledbanner (Aus) €45,000
Ten Sovereigns (Ire) €17,500
The Antarctic (Ire) €6,000
Wootton Bassett (GB) €200,000

 

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Shin Emperor Off The Mark at First Asking at Tokyo

Susumu Fujita's Shin Emperor (Fr) (Siyouni {Fr}), the full-brother to G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner Sottsass (Fr) and €2.1-million topper at the 2022 Arqana August sale, made a successful racecourse debut Saturday, bursting through with 400 metres to travel en route to a three-length success at Tokyo Racecourse.

Trying an 1800-metre trip for this first go, the son of Starlet's Sister (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) was first to break the line and could have led had they chosen, but Takeshi Yokoyama elected to allow the colt to find his feed and settled in a handy fourth behind a steady tempo for the long run down the back straight. Patiently handled on the circle just behind the speed, Shin Emperor traveled strongly and had to be pulled off heels with the real running about to begin, but he split rivals decisively and sprinted his final 600 metres in a strong :33.8 for an easy victory as the $4 (3-1) second favourite.

“He was stronger than I imagined, and I thought he was a good horse from the start,” said Yokoyama. “He's still a kid and he's still a challenge, but he's a horse I'm looking forward to.”

Added winning trainer Yoshito Yahagi: “I'm relieved to see such a performance from a new horse with such a deep pedigree.”

While not specifying any future targets, Shin Emperor would certainly be on a trajectory towards the 2024 Japanese Classics, which begin with the G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) in April. There are two top-level opportunities for 2-year-old males in December in Japan, the Asahi Hai Futurity over a mile and the Hopeful S. going 2000 metres.

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