Equibase Analysis: Fore Left Could Upset Tiz The Law In Belmont Stakes

In the scheme of things, the Grade 1, $1 million Belmont Stakes being run in June doesn't seem that out of the normal. However, in the year of the pandemic the fact the race comes before the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes and will be run at the distance of one mile and one-eighth really makes a point things are out of whack this year. Just the same, a strong field of 10 lines up for the race which earns the top four finishers significant points on the Road to the Derby.

Tiz the Law leads the field in career earnings ($945,300) and accomplishments, having won four of five career races including the Grade 1 Florida Derby easily by four and one-quarter lengths when last seen. Sole Volante also has won four races, including the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes in February, before a runner-up effort in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and a strong win 10 days ago which was the ticket to ship from Florida to New York for this race.

Another horse proven in the top races for three-year-olds early this year is Modernist, winner of one of the two divisions of the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes in February. However, he had no excuse when third in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby in his most recent start. Likewise, Max Player won the Grade 3 Withers Stakes at the distance of this year's Belmont, but hasn't been seen in the five and one-half months since then. Fore Left shipped half-way across the world for his three year old debut and came away with a strong win on the lead throughout in the Group 3 United Arab Emirates 2000 Guineas in February.

Dr Post punched his ticket into the race with a victory in the Unbridled Stakes in late April. He's trained by Todd Pletcher, who also saddles Farmington Road, the runner-up in the Oaklawn Stakes in April before a non-threatening fourth in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby in May. Tap It to Win won impressively at Belmont just 16 days ago and appears to have a lot of talent.

Trainer Steve Asmussen, who recently became the all-time leading trainer at Churchill Downs, saddles a pair. One of those is Pneumatic, who contested the pace for most of the race before tiring a bit and ending up third in the Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes last month. The other is Jungle Runner, who won the one turn Clever Trevor Stakes in November but who has been beaten a total of sixty-seven lengths in four starts since then.

Although Tiz the Law is the one to beat on paper, I'm going to take a shot with Fore Left to post the upset in the Belmont Stakes. The colt won the first two starts of his career last May and June, both sprints including the Tremont Stakes at Belmont Park, then after two months off he wasn't disgraced a bit when ending up third and a neck behind the runner-up in the Best Pal Stakes at Del Mar. Following a poor effort in his two-turn debut in the American Pharoah Stakes last September, the southern California prep for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, the colt returned to sprinting and won a minor stakes before trying an all-weather track and trying turf, finishing third then 10th in those races. Rested two months and put back on the dirt while shipping to Dubai for the United Arab Emirates 2000 Guineas, Fore Left led from the start in a 16 horse field and held off all challengers early while drawing off late with some authority.

That effort showed he had matured nicely over the winter as he earned a career-best 103 Equibase Speed Figure. The runner-up in that race returned to win a stakes the following month which flattered the form of Fore Left somewhat. Rested since then, Fore Left resumed training in April and shipped to Belmont the first week of June. Since then, he's put in two very strong morning drills over a track he already proved a liking for when winning last spring. Although Tap It to Win earned his last victory at Belmont leading from start to finish, I believe Fore Left will be sent for the lead by jockey Jose Ortiz and if allowed to get into a high cruising speed as he did in the 2000 Guineas, he could post the upset win in this field. He still has to beat Tiz the Law, with 117 and 112 figures earned in his last two starts, but considering this will be only his second start as a three year old, Fore Left may be able to do just that.

There's little question Tiz the Law is the horse to beat based on his body of work and particularly his two races this year. Rested two months after a poor third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall, Tiz the Law was a powerful winner of the Holy Bull Stakes with a career-best and field high 117 Figure which remains the highest stakes winning figure by any thee year old in North America even four months later. Although he earned a lower 112 figure winning the Florida Derby, Tiz the Law did not need to run any faster after he opened up by a length in the stretch and jockey Manual Franco noted there were no challengers coming.

When a horse has earned two consecutive figures which are both higher than any other horse in the field, it's known as a “double advantage” and these horses win a high percentage of the time. Considering how well Tiz the Law ran off a similar layoff in the Holy Bull, and the colt has excellent tactical speed which is likely to have him in third or fourth position early and in range of the leaders at the critical stage of the race, Tiz the Law is a legitimate favorite and the most probable to win the race. The only proviso is how strong a horse like Fore Left may be if allowed an easy lead from the start as horses can get very courageous when allowed to run that way.

Sole Volante was my top choice in the Sam F. Davis Stakes on this page in February off his third place effort in his first dirt start prior to that. Not only had trainer Patrick Biancone already proved prescient with the move as Ete Indien had run very well a couple of weeks earlier, but Sole Volante had tremendous dam side breeding for running well in stakes on dirt. The other foal of the dam, Explode, was multiple stakes placed at distances from nine to 10 furlongs. Sole Volante rewarded those who bet him in the Sam F. Davis with a win at 5 to 1 odds and earned a career best dirt figure of 108. One month later in the Tampa Bay Derby, Sole Volante rallied from 11th of 12 early but couldn't catch the winner and ended up second. Taking three months off, Sole Volante was very impressive with a big burst of speed in the stretch to win 10 days ago. Even though that was not a stakes race, the 107 figure was stakes quality. Sole Volante is likely to be near the back of the pack early but if there is any sort of pace battle early or if the early fractions are faster than average, Sole Volante could be passing the field late for his second graded stakes win of the year.

Honorable mention goes to Tap It to Win and Dr Post as both are on the verge of breakthrough performances. Tap It to Win won a sprint in May in his three year old debut with a 99 figure, then improved to a 108 figure effort 16 days ago. That win came in a one-turn route at Belmont not much different from the Belmont Stakes. Because of the level of the race, there's no way to know the class of the horses he beat but as a son of Tapit and with the ground saving rail Tap It to Win may take the needed step forward to compete with these. Dr Post shows a similar pattern as he stretched out to a mile and one-sixteenth off a sprint in his most recent start and won well. He improved from a 92 figure to 101 so he appears to be a bit behind Tap It to Win but three year olds still have potential to take a big leap forward from race to race, particularly lightly raced ones like Dr Post.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Farmington Road (100), Jungle Runner (85), Max Player (103), Modernist (94) and Pneumatic (98).

Win Contenders:
Fore Left
Tiz the Law
Sole Volante

Belmont Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Belmont Park
Saturday, June 20 – Post Time 5:42 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
Three Years Old
Purse: $1 Million
T.V.: NBC 2:45 – 6 PM E.T.

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Tiz The Law Draws Post Eight, Installed As 6-5 Morning Line Favorite For Belmont Stakes

Florida Derby winner Tiz the Law drew post eight of ten for Saturday's Grade 1 Belmont Stakes, the first race of the 2020 Triple Crown season due to rescheduling caused by the global coronavirus pandemic. To be held over a shortened distance of nine furlongs, the Belmont will be run without spectators or owners in attendance.

Trained by Barclay Tagg and ridden by Manny Franco, Tiz the Law was installed as the 6-5 morning line favorite for the Belmont. The Sackatoga Stable-owned colt will be vying to take his connections on another whirlwind trip through the Triple Crown series, echoing their ride with Funny Cide in 2003.

Second choice at odds of 9-2 is Sole Volante, recent allowance winner at Gulfstream Park who will be running off just 10 days rest on Saturday. Trained by Patrick Biancone, the late-running son of Karakontie won the G3 Sam Davis at Tampa earlier this year, and will leave from post position two under jockey Luca Panici.

Unbridled Stakes winner Dr Post comes in as the 5-1 third choice for trainer Todd Pletcher, and will leave the gate from stall nine. Champion jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. will partner the Quality Road colt.

Tap It To Win drew the inside post and will be fourth choice at 6-1 on the morning line. Trained by Mark Casse, the recent allowance winner will get the services of jockey John Velazquez as he takes a major step up in class.

The entire field for the 2020 Belmont Stakes is as follows:

  1. Tap It To Win (Velazquez, Casse) 6-1
  2. Sole Volante (Panici, Biancone) 9-2
  3. Max Player (Rosario, Rice) 15-1
  4. Modernist (Alvarado, Mott) 15-1
  5. Farmington Road (Castellano, Pletcher) 15-1
  6. Fore Left (J. Ortiz, O'Neill) 30-1
  7. Jungle Runner (Gutierrez, Asmussen) 50-1
  8. Tiz the Law (Franco, Tagg) 9-5
  9. Dr Post (I. Ortiz, Pletcher) 5-1
  10. Pneumatic (Santana, Asmussen) 8-1

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Reeves Confident in Belmont Contender Sole Volante

Dean and Patti Reeves, fourth with Tax (Arch) in last year’s GI Belmont S., will be represented in this year’s race by Sole Volante (Karakontie {Jpn}), who took the long route from Florida to New York Tuesday.

“He’s going by FedEx,” Dean Reeves said while the gelding was en route Tuesday. “Whatever kind of package, I guess they can do it. He had to go to Memphis and had a layover there and he should get into New York around 8 p.m. [Co-owner and assistant trainer] Andie [Biancone] is already up there, so she’ll be waiting on him when he gets to Belmont.”

Trainer Patrick Biancone purchased Sole Volante for $20,000 at the 2019 OBS April Sale and gave the bay to his daughter Andie as a birthday present. The gelding won his first two races, including the Nov. 30 Pulpit S., on the turf before hitting Reeves’s radar screen with a late-running third-place effort over the dirt in the Jan. 4 Mucho Macho Man S.

“I give credit for finding him to Jay Stone,” Reeves said. “He had watched the horse up there and he helps me a lot buying runners. He called me about the horse and he said this is really a turf horse, but he looked darn good in the Mucho Macho Man on the dirt. He was really closing on those horses. So we watched his back videos and I thought even if he doesn’t become a two-turn dirt horse, this will be a good horse on the turf because he has great closing kick. Jay set up a meeting and I met with Patrick for a couple of hours at Gulfstream Park and talked it through and we came up with a deal that worked for he and Andie. So that’s when we bought a majority interest in the horse.”

Sole Volante proved he was more than a turf horse when he won the Feb. 8 GIII Sam F. Davis S. in his first start for the Reeveses and he came back to prove he could be a bona fide Kentucky Derby contender with a runner-up effort behind King Guillermo (Uncle Mo) in the Mar. 7 GII Tampa Bay Derby. The form of that race was bolstered when King Guillermo returned to run second behind Nadal (Blame) in the May 2 GI Arkansas Derby.

“When we went to Tampa and he won that race, I really felt like this was going to be a nice horse,” Reeves said. “And even though we finished second, King Guillermo has turned out to be a heck of a runner himself. If he had gone to Arkansas and gotten beat by 20 lengths, then you’d rethink that some. But he ran big and he’s going to continue to run big. That’s a nice horse.”

With the reshuffling of Triple Crown races this year, connections decided to skip the trip to Arkansas with Sole Volante and chose to give the gelding some time off ahead of the extended Classic season.

“When we saw the Triple Crown races were going to be spread out all the way to October, we knew we would have to give him the time somewhere along the line,” Reeves said. “We took it at the start. So we skipped going to Arkansas and gave him the time, which has really helped him.”

That decision left Sole Volante potentially returning from a lengthy layoff to run in Saturday’s Belmont and, when rain forced a missed work, Biancone called an audible and started the bay in a Gulfstream Park allowance just a week ago. He came from last to first to win that one-mile race in a prep Reeves hopes sets him up for a trip to the Belmont winner’s circle.

“It had been over 100 days since he had raced, so we wanted to get him where he had to go through the motions. He had to go to the paddock, he had to get in the gate. He actually put up a good time and got a good Rag number and Beyer number. It couldn’t have worked out any better. If you wrote it up, that’s what you would have wanted to see from the horse.”

Reeves said Biancone has seen enough out of Sole Volante since last week’s race to take a tilt at this year’s first leg of the Triple Crown.

“After the race, we said we had 10 days to see how he was doing before we had to make a firm decision,” Reeves explained. “We started putting a plan together. We really left it up to the horse and we waited until the very last minute to see Monday how he galloped and Patrick said he was fabulous.”

The other option for Sole Volante would have been to wait for the July 11 GII Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland, but with an eye towards the delayed Sept. 5 GI Kentucky Derby, connections decided to head to New York.

“We thought if we skipped the Belmont and pointed to the Blue Grass and then something happened, if he got a fever or a bruised foot, and for some reason you had to skip that, then you are squeezing the time getting to the Derby,” Reeves said. “We wanted to secure our points. We are 14 [on the Derby points board] now, but you never know another horse could come in and get a lot of points. We would feel a lot better if we had enough points and we didn’t have to worry about getting into the Derby. That was a little bit the reasoning going to Belmont. I think that will give us the opportunity to run in the [GI] Travers S. in August and that would set us up to run in the Derby. That’s our long-range plan.”

The 2020 Triple Crown will conclude with the Oct. 3 GI Preakness S., but for Reeves a Triple Crown win would be cause for celebration no matter the timing of the races or how the victor is judged by history.

“I’ll be glad to have an asterisk,” he said of a potential Triple Crown sweep in an unprecedented year. “I’ll have two or three, however many asterisks they want to give me. I’ll take all the asterisks they want to give me and be happy to win the Triple Crown.”

While Sole Volante carries his colors in Saturday’s Belmont, Reeves will be watching from afar as owners are still not permitted at the racetrack due to the ongoing pandemic.

“Us owners, we work our tails off to get to these races and when you finally get a horse that gets there and you have to stay home, it just kills you,” Reeves said. “But the worse side of it would be no race at all. So if that’s the best we can do, we understand everyone is under a lot of pressure and right now we just have to deal with it. We’re going to have a party [at home] and enjoy the day.”

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Tiz The Law Continues To Lead NTRA Top 3-Year-Old Poll Ahead Of Saturday’s Belmont Stakes

All eyes figure to be on Tiz the Law when he makes his expected start in the Belmont Stakes on June 20 as the son of Constitution heads into the first leg of the 2020 Triple Crown with a firm lead in the National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA) Top Three-Year-Old Poll.

Trained by Barclay Tagg for Sackatoga Stable, Tiz the Law is expected to be the favorite for the Belmont Stakes, which will be contested over 1 1/8 miles this year instead of its usual distance of 12 furlongs. The bay colt most recently captured the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28 and is the leader of the sophomore male ranks, earning 28 first-place votes and 360 points from poll voters this week.

Tiz the Law completed his final serious workout in preparation for the Belmont on June 14, breezing a half mile in :50.42 under regular rider Manny Franco.

“He makes my work a lot easier,” Franco told the NYRA publicity team after the colt's workout. “He's a versatile horse. He can be there on the pace or sit off, so I can do whatever I want.”

Honor A. P., winner of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on June 6, remains second in the poll behind Tiz the Law with 9 first-place votes and 339 points. Authentic, second in the Santa Anita Derby, moved up one spot this week to third overall with 260 points followed by King Guillermo (201 points) and expected Belmont Stakes runner Sole Volante (171).

Grade 1-winner Maxfield (109 points) dropped to sixth overall in the wake of news that he would miss this year's Kentucky Derby due to a condylar fracture suffering during a June 10 workout.

Fellow Grade 1-winner Charlatan (97 points) is seventh with former stablemate Nadal (78) in eighth. Basin (72 points) and Ete Indien (70) complete the top 10.

Rankings were relatively stagnant this week in the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll with champion Midnight Bisou continuing to be unshakable from the No. 1 spot. The daughter of Midnight Lute earned 26 first-place votes and 343 points to stay atop the rankings as she prepares for an expected run in the Grade 2 Fleur de Lis Stakes at Churchill Downs on June 27.

Grade 1-winner Mucho Gusto (245 points) and By My Standards (2 first-place votes, 244 points) remain second and third, respectively, followed by Code of Honor, who earned 3 first-place votes and 190 points in the wake of his victory in the Grade 3 Westchester Stakes on June 6.

Tom's d'Etat (138 points) holds in fifth followed by Zulu Alpha (1 first-place vote, 129 points). Vekoma, winner of the Grade 1 Carter Handicap on June 6, remains in the seventh spot with 119 points with champion Maximum Security (4 first-place votes, 100 points), Improbable (88), and McKinzie (83) rounding out the top 10.

Tiz the Law (25 points) was not ranked in the top 10 but did receive one first-place vote.

The NTRA Top Thoroughbred polls are the sport's most comprehensive surveys of experts. Every week eligible journalists and broadcasters cast votes for their top 10 horses, with points awarded on a 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 basis. All horses that have raced in the U.S., are in training in the U.S., or are known to be pointing to a major event in the U.S. are eligible for the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll. Voting in both the Top 3-Year-Old Poll and the Top Thoroughbred Poll is scheduled to be conducted through the conclusion of the Breeders' Cup in November.

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