Sittin On Go | Horse Racing Free Tips

BC Workers Out in Full Force at Churchill

MGISW War of Will (War Front) kicked off the Breeders’ Cup action Friday morning at Churchill Downs. With jockey Declan Carroll in the irons, the bay went in fractions of :11.60, :23.40, :34.80 and :46.80. They galloped out six furlongs in 1:12.20, seven furlongs in 1:24.80 and a mile in 1:38.40, according to Churchill Downs clocker John Nichols. War of Will has made all three of his starts this season on turf, most recently finishing third in the GI Ricoh Woodbine Mile, but is being pointed for the GI Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.

“I was just the passenger along for the ride,” said Carroll. “I’ve always loved how this horse trains over the dirt. He’s very versatile and can run on dirt or turf but he’s always trained great over the dirt.”

Next up from the Mark Casse barn was War of Will’s MGISW stablemate Got Stormy (Get Stormy), who was second in the GI Breeders’ Cup Mile last term, but is pointing for the GI Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint this season. With Kim Carroll aboard, the chestnut went in splits of :11.80, :23.20 and :34.80.

Brad Cox breezed four Breeders’ Cup contenders, including GI Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity S. hero Essential Quality (Tapit), who is pointing to the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. With Florent Geroux up, the Godolphin runner started his work one length behind multiple graded stakes winner Mr. Misunderstood (Archarcharch) through splits of :13.20, :36.80, :48.80 and 1:00.60. Essential Quality finished even with Mr. Misunderstood at the wire and the duo galloped out together in 1:26.40.

“He seems like he’s really matured over the summer into where he is now,” Geroux said. “He’s one of those horses where he keeps getting better as he gets more experience.”

Geroux also breezed undefeated ‘TDN Rising Star’ Aunt Pearl (Ire) (Lope de Vega {Ire}). The GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf contender worked in company with Emro (Point of Entry), covering five panels in 1:00.80 (22/44).

Also on the worktab were MGSW duo of Mr. Money (Goldencents) and Silver Dust (Tapit), both of whom are scheduled to run in the Dirt Mile. Mr. Money breezed a best-of-44 five panels in :58.80. With Gabriel Saez in the irons, the bay cruised through early fractions of :11.60, :23.40, :34.80 and :46.80.

“It was kind of an almost must-win situation in the Ack Ack to get him back on track,” trainer Bret Calhoun said. “Mentally I think it was good for him and I can tell a difference with his training. He seems happier after the race. He hasn’t had a lot go right for him this year in his races so coming into the race off a win is crucial.”

Silver Dust worked with jockey Adam Beschizza in the irons through fractions of :11.60, :23.40, and :35.60 and completed five furlongs in 1:00.20 (9/44).

“He’s sort of been a challenging horse his entire career,” Calhoun said of the 6-year-old son of Tapit. “He’s continued to get better mentally and he’s been more consistent with age. I know it’s in him to come out of his shell.”

GI Derby City Distaff heroine Bell’s the One (Majesticperfection) continued her preparations for the GI Breeders’ Cup F/M Sprint Friday, working five panels in company in 1:00.40 (11/44) with jockey Corey Lanerie up.

“She likes to have a target in front of her, so we typically work her this way,” conditioner Neil Pessin said. “Her race against Serengeti Empress (Alternation) [in the Derby City Distaff] was so thrilling. She dug in really hard that day to get up just in time.”

Dale Romans sent out his contenders for the juvenile dirt races Friday morning, starting with the 2-year-old colt Sittin On Go (Brody’s Cause), winner of the GIII Iroquois S. With exercise rider Faustino Herrarte aboard, he went in :11.40, :22.40, :34.80 and :47. Moments later, GIII Pocahontas S. winner Girl Daddy (Uncle Mo) breezed with jockey Joe Talamo up through splits of :11.80, :23.80 and :48.40. She galloped out six furlongs in 1:13.60.

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Taking Stock: Fifth-Year Stallions and Brody’s Cause

Much has been made lately in Kentucky on farms reducing stud fees in response to the blighted economy, but there’s a group of stallions whose fees would have mostly dropped as a matter of course even in booming times. These are second- through fifth-year stallions; frequently, fees for horses entering their fifth season at stud as their first-crop runners turn three show particularly pronounced drops from their initial fees.

A small commercial breeder contacted me the other day to discuss the reduced 2021 stud fee for a stallion whose first crop is racing at two now. She noted how well the stallion matches her mare on pedigree and physique and the 50% reduction in fee from his first year at stud but worried that “his first 2-year-olds are not yet lighting the racetrack on fire, and his sales figures plummeted this year.”

This is a common dilemma for breeders and stud farms alike. Farms need to price fifth-year horses caught in this tricky bubble attractively enough to attract breeders in order to keep both groups in the game on stallions whose long-term viability in Kentucky will be determined in the next year or two. One false move in pricing could spell commercial disaster for one, the other, or both.

And it’s not just pricing, either, as I told this breeder. “You’d be breeding in his fifth year at stud. You’ll have 5-year-olds, 4-year-olds, 3-year-olds, and 2-year-olds [racing] when you sell [your yearling], so you’d have to really like him, because if they are not successful, it will be tough. And even if they are successful, there’s a ceiling [on price] unless he turns into Curlin.”

Curlin, who’d entered stud at Lane’s End in 2009 for a $75,000 fee, got his first winner in the most dreaded of places–the Central Moscow Hippodrome in Russia, on June 17, 2012. He finished the year ninth on the freshman sire list with no 2-year-old stakes winners to his credit and stood for $25,000 in 2013–his fifth year at stud. The stallion’s yearling average in 2012 was $70,000 versus $137,000 in 2011 for his first-crop yearlings. However, the Horse of the Year eventually turned things around, and by 2015, when his first crop was five, his yearlings averaged $211,000. Curlin will stand for $175,000 in 2021, the same as this year. His 2020 yearlings to date have averaged $342,000.

Stallions with first-crop 3-year-olds next year can change perceptions quickly with a few early-season stakes winners, particularly if they’re on the Classic trail, guaranteeing patronage for another year or two by finishing out the season strong with two crops–3-year-old and 2-year-olds–at the races.

Daredevil did some of this in 2020 with Gl Preakness S. and GI Alabama S. winner Swiss Skydiver and Gl Kentucky Oaks winner Shedaresthedevil after a poor run with his first 2-year-olds, but by then he’d already been jettisoned from Kentucky after only four seasons at stud.

However, it’s the rare stallion that can carry that momentum forward, because he’ll need to do it with mares of decreasing quality in years two, three, and four. Most stallions tend to have their highest output of stakes winners from their first crop, when they get their best mares, and numbers tend to decrease commensurately with a decrease in mare quality.

I noted in this space Feb. 27 (Third- And Fourth-Year Sire Issues) that of the top 10 freshman sires of 2017, five had left Kentucky by 2020–when their first foals were five–including the leader, Overanalyze, along with Shanghai Bobby (#3), Animal Kingdom (#4), Flat Out (#7), and Justin Phillip (#10).

Brody’s Cause

A strong opinion on a horse, formed by an analysis of facts and an evaluation of price versus the competition, is the best way to approach a fifth-year stallion.

For example, Spendthrift’s multiple Grade l winner Brody’s Cause (Giant’s Causeway), a $350,000 yearling purchase for Albaugh Family Stables trained by Dale Romans, will stand in 2021, his fifth year, for $5,000, down from the $12,500 he started out at in 2017 and the $7,500 he was listed at this year. He is ninth on the freshman sire list through today behind leader Not This Time (Giant’s Causeway), another Albaugh horse whose fee has jumped to $40,000 in 2021 from an initial $15,000 in 2017 and the $12,500 in 2020.

However, Brody’s Cause has eye-opening stats versus the competition and at the price.

Both Not This Time and Brody’s Cause are each represented by two black-type winners so far–the most among freshman sires, along with Nyquist (Uncle Mo), whose 2021 fee is $75,000; and Outwork (Uncle Mo), who stands next year for $15,000.

Brody’s Cause is also tied with Not This Time and Nyquist in the top 10 by number of black-type runners with four apiece, but he’s done this from 55 foals to 95 for Not This Time and 80 for Nyquist.

As for the quality of his runners, five of his six winners have won maiden special weights while another, the Bob Baffert-trained filly Kalypso, won for the first time in the Listed Anoakia S. Oct. 18 at Santa Anita after placing in two Del Mar maiden special weights. Kalypso, by the way, was a $240,000 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July yearling.

On the same day of Kalypso’s win, the gelding Gospel Way ran second in the Listed Display S. at Woodbine–his second stakes placing after a third in the Victoria S. at the same track.

Earlier this month, Brody’s Cause showcased another talented maiden winner. A $185,000 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga yearling for Albaugh and Romans, Smiley Sobotka graduated at Keeneland in his second start in the style of a horse who looks to have a bigger future next year at three. The colt had dead-heated for second in his debut at Ellis over 6 1/2 furlongs but found the mile and a sixteenth at Keeneland much more to his liking.

This brings me to Sittin On Go, Brody’s Cause’s most accomplished runner to date. A $65,000 Keeneland November weanling and $62,000 Keeneland September RNA, he also races for Albaugh and is trained by Romans. Sittin On Go won his debut at Ellis in a five-furlong dirt sprint by four-plus lengths in mid-August and returned last month in the one-mile Glll Iroquois S. at Churchill to win impressively by 2 1/2 lengths. The runner up, Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow), ran third in his next start in the GI Champagne S. at Belmont, though he was beaten by more than 14 lengths by the leader of the division, Jackie’s Warrior (Maclean’s Music). However, the third-place finisher in the Iroquois, Super Stock (Dialed In), also came back to place third to Essential Quality (Tapit) in the Gl Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, less than five lengths behind the winner.

Sittin On Go has solid Grade l formlines, and he will test Jackie’s Warrior in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile next.

Brody’s Cause has one other stakes horse, Girther. A $2,500 Keeneland November weanling, $4,000 Keeneland September yearling, and $20,000 OBS March 2-year-old, Girther won a Del Mar maiden special weight in July in his second start and came back a month later at the same venue to run a neck second to Weston (Hit It a Bomb, also at Spendthrift) in the Gll Best Pal S.

Brody’s Cause won three of eight starts, including the Breeders’ Futurity at two and the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at three, both at Keeneland, and earned $1,168,138. His sire Giant’s Causeway doesn’t yet have an elite son in North America, but he did in Europe with Shamardal, who died earlier this year. Here, he has the good First Samurai at Claiborne plus several others trying to rise to that level, but in Not This Time and Brody’s Cause he’s still got his name in the hat with two promising young guns, and who knows?

Spendthrift’s flagship horse Into Mischief also started off for $12,500, dropped to $7,500, and is now booked full at $225,000. And the farm’s elder statesman, Malibu Moon, began his career at Country Life in Maryland for $3,000 and went on to sire a GI Kentucky Derby winner among many others of note.

My advice to the small breeder looking for value at $15,000 and down? For the price, Brody’s Cause is worth the gamble.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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Thousand Words Backed Up by Family Deeds

The adage reckons a picture to be worth 1,000 words. Of course, as has been remarked, that means 1,001 words must be worth more than a picture. (On which wiseguy basis, I will generously trade this column for that Rembrandt in your loft.) But then it might take something closer to 1,000 pages to record everything the owners of Thousand Words (Pioneerof the Nile) have experienced over the past year.

This colt gave a literal quality to their topsy-turvy fortunes when rearing and toppling in the Derby preliminaries, sending Bob Baffert’s lieutenant Jimmy Barnes to hospital and himself back to the barn in mild disgrace. For the Albaugh family, the sudden deflation must have taken them back to the numbing split-second when Dennis’ Moment (Tiznow), stumbling out of the gate, threw away a juvenile championship at the Breeders’ Cup last fall.

Yet between those dispiriting bookends, their stable has been achieving some quite remarkable things–so much so, in fact, that success for Thousand Words in the GI Preakness S. would perhaps put Dennis Albaugh in contention for an Eclipse Award of his own.

Last month, in the space of three days, Dale Romans saddled two Ellis Park debut winners to follow up in graded stakes at Churchill: Sittin On Go (Brody’s Cause) in the GIII Iroquois S.; and Girl Daddy (Uncle Mo) in the GIII Pocahontas S. In the process, each earned the first 10 starting points for the 2021 Derby and Oaks, respectively.

By the time those gates are secured and opened, perhaps, we might finally be restored to those simple indulgences past that now seem so decadent; measurable, as well as anything, by the notion of a crowded infield on the first Saturday in May. But if the whole of society can’t get ahead of itself, right now, then certainly nor can those whose aspirations are contingent on a conveyance as unpredictable as the Thoroughbred.

The Albaughs won’t need telling that, not least after Sittin On Go’s success earlier on the card intimated that the force might be with Thousand Words in the GI Kentucky Derby. In the event, they were reserved the cruellest portion of the hollowness that must have filtered from the deserted grandstands into the hearts of all those whose privilege, in making that coveted walkover, had been rendered so bittersweet.

But our business is all about the long game. And the kind of calls that these guys are making will surely flatten even such bumps in the road as unaccountable as the slips and flips of Dennis’ Moment and Thousand Words. Because even with an unbeaten colt and filly on track for the Breeders’ Cup, the Albaugh family’s potential impact on next year’s Classic scene could prove to be broader still.

The way Not This Time has started at Taylor Made, we could be looking at one of the most exciting young stallions of recent times. I can’t resist repeating that I’ve been in his corner throughout, annually banging the drum in our midwinter stallion survey. And he has overcome even that ruinous disadvantage to set a searing pace in the freshman’s championship. His 13 scorers from just 27 starters to date are headed by the brilliant Princess Noor, at $1.35 million the most expensive 2-year-old by a rookie ever sold at OBS.

While there’s plenty of Nerud-Tartan dash in his family (two of Ta Wee’s five named foals put her 2×3 behind his second dam), the beauty about Not This Time is that he is so eligible to consolidate this early promise–in terms both of build and pedigree, as a Giant’s Causeway half-brother to Liam’s Map.

In his own track career Not This Time had already introduced the Albaughs to the rough with the smooth: he won an Ellis Park maiden and the Iroquois, just like Sittin On Go, but then narrowly failed to run down Classic Empire (Pioneerof the Nile) at the Breeders’ Cup (ceding first run, the pair seven lengths clear) before being forced into premature retirement by injury.

He’s out of the family’s foundation investment, Miss Macy Sue (Trippi), a $42,000 2-year-old who became a graded stakes sprinter. Mr. Albaugh bought out his racing partner and resolved to give the young mare every chance with her first covers: A.P. Indy, Unbridled’s Song, Medaglia d’Oro, Giant’s Causeway. And that’s what I love about this operation: they came into the business with no pretensions, from Iowa, but bank on old-fashioned quality in a way that reproves many a Bluegrass horseman who cheapens the breed in slavish pursuit of fashion.

Now it turns out that you can have the best of both worlds. The Albaughs appear to have produced a legitimate commercial heir to Giant’s Causeway; and, in the sire of Sittin On Go, may yet give us a second.

Brody’s Cause, similarly, would succeed for the best of reasons: he was bought as a yearling as the son of a proven stallion, from a regal family. Go back to his fifth dam, in fact, and you’ll find a Bold Ruler half-sister to Somethingroyal.

He stands at Spendthrift–the family’s partner, incidentally, in pushing a seven-figure boat out for Thousand Words as a yearling–and the Albaughs supported him at market by giving $65,000 for his very first foal, a January 11 colt bred by and delivered at Wynnstay Farm, as a weanling at the Keeneland November Sale. Returning him to the same ring last September, they set a reserve at the same price, only for bidding to stall at $62,000. That’s how Sittin On Go is still in their stable; that’s how these ups and downs can even out.

Let’s not forget that Thousand Words had soured in the spring and would not have lined up for a May Derby, either. Turning him round to beat poor old Honor A. P. (Honor Code) in their Derby prep has been an achievement commensurate with the Preakness record beckoning Baffert. But Romans, the family’s principal trainer, may yet prove equal to an equivalent challenge with Dennis’ Moment, who returned to the worktab just this week.

That colt, remember, is by Tiznow–who shared one of the great Breeders’ Cup duels with Giant’s Causeway. Proper stallions, these, as favored by proper horsemen. Between Romans, bloodstock agent Barry Berkelhammer, and Albaugh’s son-in-law and racing manager Jason Loutsch, this is an exemplary crew. And if Mr. Albaugh is already building a legacy, that’s because his team are using durable, high-caliber materials: proven stallions, deep families, speed that will stretch through a second turn.

So there’s one picture that really would be worth a Thousand Words–and that’s one that shows him draped in a blanket of Black-Eyed Susans.

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Brody’s Cause Colt Sittin On Go Rallies Late To Win Iroquois

Albaugh Family Stables' Sittin On Go roared past Midnight Bourbon at the sixteenth pole en route to a 2 1/2-length victory on Saturday in the 39th running of the Grade 3, $200,000 Iroquois Stakes for 2-year-olds at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.

Trained by Dale Romans and ridden by Corey Lanerie, Sittin On Go covered the mile on a fast main track in 1:35.

In addition to picking up 10 points toward the 2021 Kentucky Derby, the winner also earned a fees-paid berth into the $2-million Breeders' Cup Juvenile (GI) at Keeneland on Nov. 6.

Favored Therideofalifetime led the field of 10 through uncontested fractions of :23.04, :45.64 and 1:10. At the top of the lane, Midnight Bourbon made the first move at Therideofalifetime and opened a daylight advantage that evaporated at the sixteenth pole.

The victory, the second in two starts for Sittin On Go, was worth $117,800 and boosted Sittin On Go's earnings to $145,520.

Sittin On Go is a Kentucky-bred son of Brody's Cause out of the More Than Ready mare Set'n On Ready.

Sittin On Go returned $50, $18.60 and $9. Midnight Bourbon, ridden by Gerardo Corrales, returned $6 and $4 and finished 1 ¾ lengths in front of Super Stock who paid $5.20 to show under Ricardo Santana Jr.

It was another 5 1/4 lengths back to Therideofalifetime who was followed in order by Pico d'Oro, Notary, Ultimate Badger, Crazy Shot, Drop Anchor and Belafonte.

“He broke really good and put me right where I thought he would be after watching his replay from Ellis Park,” said Lanerie. “Down the backside, he was trying to get out on me. I don't know why, but he settled in real nice. I was actually going to follow Dale's (Romans) other horse (Ultimate Badger), but I had so much horse, I went to the outside and let him come on. Watching the races, it looked like the outside is the best place to be. I didn't want any excuses for getting him stopped. I put him in the clear and he was just like his daddy (stakes winner Brody's Cause).”

“We're having ourselves a great weekend,” said Romans, who on Thursday saddled Girl Daddy to win the Pocahontas, a Win and You're In for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. “This horse reminds us a lot of his father (Brody's Cause). We were pretty confident he'd be able to stretch out from his training and this race set up perfectly for us. We're on to the Breeders' Cup.”

“Man, to pick up the Pocahontas (with Girl Daddy) and then follow it up with the Iroquois two days later is unreal,” said Dennis Albaugh. “We couldn't be happier. That's why we're in the racing business. That horse was unbelievable coming around the turn. I was like, 'Man, he's moving.' ”

Steve Asmussen was positive about the performances of his two runners, Midnight Bourbon and Super Stock. “Both of them are solid colts, good finishing times,” Asmussen said. “Just another step in the development of 2-year-olds that we hope end as good 3-year-olds. Super Stock, he kind of stumbled just a tad away from there. He wasn't exactly where we expected him to be early but I thought he adjusted and ran a solid race considering. And Midnight Bourbon ran really well. I thought he should have won from the position he was in but he was back on short rest and has room to improve.”

Florent Geroux, aboard favored Therideofalifetime, the beaten favorite who finished fourth, said: “Disappointed. He broke sharp and made the lead very easily. He did not finish for some reason. I don't know if it was too far for him or if it was too soon after the Saratoga race.”

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