A 2022 Derby-Oaks Sire Double Could Make History

Of the 1,630 stallions who covered mares in North America in 2018, a grand total of up to 34 could have starters in the respective gates of the upcoming GI Kentucky Derby and GI Kentucky Oaks (based on a maximum of 20 Derby starters and 14 Oaks starters). That's about a 2% chance.

How remarkable is it, then, that this year we have not one, not two, but seven stallions with the potential to pull off a Derby-Oaks sire double, something that hasn't been done since Native Dancer sired the winners of both races 56 years ago? In the 147 years of Derby-Oaks history, the feat has been accomplished exactly four times.

Of course, it will be another week before the fields are drawn, but Churchill Downs currently has 28 colts eligible by points on its Derby leaderboard and 23 fillies on its Oaks leaderboard. Seven sires have progeny on both and an additional three have multiple contenders for one or the other of the races. That seems extraordinary. Almost as extraordinary is that not one of those 10 stallions with multiple contenders is Spendthrift's super sire Into Mischief, who officially became the first stallion in history to sire back-to-back Derby winners when Mandaloun was belatedly promoted as the 2021 winner.

It will come as no surprise that the Three Chimneys wunderkind Gun Runner ranks at the top of the list. The 2017 Horse of the Year was a breakout superstar with his first 2-year-olds last year and has simply continued his dominance, so much so that his one crop of 3-year-olds has him ranked among the top 15 of North America's leading sires in 2022, with all the horses above him having older runners to add to their tally. He leads the current second-crop sires in every category that matters: Grade I winners, graded winners, black-type winners, earnings, earnings per starter, and Derby and Oaks horses.

Gun Runner's first 3-year-olds include a potential three Derby colts and two Oaks fillies | Sarah Andrew

Gun Runner has three colts on Churchill's top 20 by points: Cyberknife, 'TDN Rising Star' Taiba, and Early Voting. He also has two fillies on the Oaks leaderboard by points: champion and 'TDN Rising Star' Echo Zulu, who is securely in the Oaks field, and Shotgun Hottie, who is currently sitting #15 on the list. It is truly an embarrassment of riches.

But Gun Runner isn't the only one whose cup runneth over. Airdrie's young third-crop sire Upstart just may have the favorite for both the Derby and the Oaks, a feat surely almost as rare as winning both. Upstart may not have the sheer numbers in each race Gun Runner has, but he has Zandon and Kathleen O., and it's a good bet the Airdrie stallion team wouldn't trade places with anyone.

Continuing the spate of success for young sires, two others below Gun Runner on the second-crop list also have potential starters in both the Derby and Oaks. Both Coolmore's Classic Empire and Lane's End's Connect have runners on the leaderboard of both. Classic Empire's Morello has enough points to make the Derby field, while his 'TDN Rising Star' Classy Edition and Interstatedaydream are on the Oaks bubble. Inversely, Connect has Hidden Connection guaranteed a spot in the Oaks field, while his Rattle N Roll is on the Derby bubble by points.

With a number of the industry's top sires in their late teens or early 20s, isn't it comforting to feel the future of the breed is in good hands with these prolific young stallions? Two other blossoming sires, Taylor Made's third-crop stallion Not This Time and Darley's third-crop sire Nyquist, also deserve special mention as each has three contenders, although in a single race. Not This Time has Epicenter, Simplification, and In Due Time for the Derby, while Nyquist potentially has Turnerloose, Awake at Midnyte, and Sequist for the Oaks. Also worthy of mention for multiple contenders in a single Classic is Race Day, who left Derby entrants White Abarrio and Barber Road in this country before transferring to Korea.

Returning to our potential Derby-Oaks doubles, although it seems particularly notable with these young second- and third-crop sires who have been on fire lately, we also have three more established stallions who also have a shot to pull off the rare accomplishment. Coolmore's Munnings, who is proving just about as versatile as his sire, Speightstown, ended 2021 with top 2-year-olds 'TDN Rising Star' Jack Christopher and Eda. Neither will make the Classic fields on the first Friday and Saturday in May. However, Munnings re-rallied with 'TDN Rising Star' Zozos guaranteed a spot in the Derby field and 'TDN Rising Star' Shahama among the top 14 for the Oaks.

The late Pioneerof the Nile could add to his tally | Louise Reinagel

WinStar's late Pioneerof the Nile and Coolmore's Uncle Mo, already Derby-winning sires in 2015 with American Pharoah and 2016 with Nyquist, respectively, could also pull off a Derby-Oaks double this year. Pioneerof the Nile has Tawny Port and Pioneer of Medina for the Derby, while Favor is a longshot to make the Oaks field. Unclo Mo has Mo Donegal and 'TDN Rising Star' Cocktail Moments firmly on their respective race leaderboards.

For historical perspective, Native Dancer was the most recent stallion to sire the winners of both the Derby and the Oaks, something he accomplished in 1966 with Kauai King and Native Street. It can be a challenge to find a pedigree in America today without Native Dancer buried somewhere as without him, there would have been no Northern Dancer or Mr. Prospector, making him arguably one of the–if not the–most important American stallions of the past century. The “Gray Ghost of Sagamore,” whose sole career loss ironically came by a head in the 1953 Kentucky Derby, has figured in the majority of Derby- and Oaks-winning pedigrees for the past 50 years.

Calumet's incomparable Bull Lea also scored the Derby-Oaks double in 1952 with Hill Gail and Real Delight. Bull Lea got three Derby winners in a decade with Citation (1948) and Iron Liege (1957) joining Hill Gail on the Derby podium. He also had two Oaks winners, with Bubbley matching Real Delight with an Oaks win in 1953. While Into Mischief is the only sire to win Derbies in consecutive years, Bull Lea is one of four to do it in the Oaks, joining Sir Ivor (1976-77), Spanish Prince II (1924-25), and King Alfonso (1882-83).

Farther back in the sands of time, McGee had the legendary Hall of Fame gelding Exterminator win the Derby in 1918 and his female compatriot Viva America take the Oaks the same year. His was an amazing story: an average sprinter on the track and the only foal by his own unraced sire who was gelded after he was conceived, McGee also sired another Derby winner in Donerail (1913).

Earlier still was King Alfonso in 1885, who notched Derby-Oaks sire score with Joe Cotton and Lizzie Dwyer. Obviously, stallions had far smaller crops back then than they do today, which makes King Alfonso's accomplishments even more impressive. From a reported 17 stakes winners, the Phaeton (GB) stallion had Derby winner Joe Cotton, Derby winner Fonso (1880), and three Oaks winners in four years: in addition to Lizzie Dwyer in 1885, he also had Katie Creel (1882) and Vera (1883).

Native Dancer is the last horse to sire a Derby and Oaks winner in the same year | Coglianese

Many great stallions throughout our sport have never had a Derby nor an Oaks winner. Several others–the aforementioned Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector, for example, as well as Tapit, Storm Cat, Raise a Native, Tom Fool, Nasrullah, and dozens of others–have had a Derby or an Oaks winner, but not both. Several, like Medaglia d'Oro, A.P. Indy, Alydar, Exclusive Native, Sir Gallahad III (Fr), and even the legendary Man o' War and Lexington, have had two winners (or more) of one of the races, but none of the other.

A number of stallions have come tantalizingly close to getting the rare double, with winners of both races in different years. Seattle Slew comes to mind with Swale's Derby in 1984 and Oaks wins with both Seaside Attraction (1990) and Flute (2001). Halo came even closer, with Sunday Silence (1989) and Goodbye Halo (1998) in adjacent years, plus Sunny's Halo (1983) thrown in for good measure. Blenheim II was another good example, with Derby winners Whirlaway (1941) and Jet Pilot (1947) bookending an Oaks win by Nellie L. (1943).

There have been a number of captivating outcomes for sire lines as well. In 1993, Danzig got his lone Oaks winner in Dispute, while his son, Polish Navy, sired Derby winner Sea Hero. A similar thing happened in 1940, when Sir Gallahad III (Fr) sired Derby winner Gallahadion and his son, Insco, got the Oaks winner in Inscolassie; and again in 1933, when Black Toney sired Brokers Tip (Derby) and his son, Black Servant, sired Barn Swallow (Oaks). In 1902, Hanover sons Halma and The Commoner sired Derby winner Alan-a-Dale and Oaks winner Wainamoinen, respectively. Sire of yesteryear Leamington had a son, Reform, sire the 1892 Derby winner in Azra, and a grandson, Falsetto, sire Oaks winner Miss Dixie that same year. Falsetto would eventually sire three Derby winners and two Oaks winners. Leamington had himself sired that first of all Derby winners, Aristides, as well as Longfellow, who got his Derby winners in 1883 with Leonatus and in 1890 with Riley, and his Oaks winners in 1880 with Longitude and in 1887 with Florimore.

Will the young guns Upstart, Gun Runner, Connect, or Classic Empire add their names to the very short list of stallions to sire a Derby-Oaks double? Or will Munnings, Pioneerof the Nile, or Uncle Mo add to their sire exploits? Or perhaps the late Arrogate's Secret Oath will win the Oaks and Japan will continue its recent international dominance with Reach the Crown (Jpn)'s Crown Pride (Jpn) taking the Derby, making this entire discussion a moot point.

That's part of the allure surrounding the Derby and Oaks each year. It's the delicious wondering and speculating about the Classics and what may happen that makes the magic.

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Life Only Gets Better for Mischief

Call it the year of authentication. After sealing his giddy rise with a first sires’ championship last year, Into Mischief has retained his title in 2020 with spectacular ease. Indeed, while several of his predecessors have required a single outstanding earner to elevate them above their rivals, this most remarkable of stallions would have secured the laurels even without the $7.17 million banked by a son on the point of formal anointment as Horse of the Year.

As it is, we can instead treat his latest champion, Authentic, as immediate and priceless confirmation that an upgrade in Into Mischief’s mares–and remember he was still only a $45,000 cover when Peter Blum sent Flawless (Mr Greeley) to the Spendthrift phenomenon in 2016–would enable him to draw out his trademark speed through a second turn.

There had, admittedly, already been auspicious glimpses of this capacity: Owendale and Audible, for instance, had both emerged from much cheaper books to finish strongly for Classic placings. But the emergence of a GI Kentucky Derby and GI Breeders’ Cup Classic winner is not a matter of mere consolidation for Into Mischief. Authentic represents a neon validation of his competence to produce the kind of Triple Crown stock commensurate with a fee that has now soared, even as tariffs are being slashed at his own and virtually every other farm, to $225,000.

And if Authentic proved to be aptly named, then how about Life Is Good as a potential flagship for their sire’s next crop, which was conceived at $75,000? It’s obviously early days for a colt who only made his debut last month, but their trainer is eyeing the GIII Sham S. on Saturday–the very race he used to launch Authentic as a similarly raw sophomore prospect.

Other Into Mischief youngsters already astir include Mandaloun, who has won both starts to date for Brad Cox and may head to the GIII Lecomte S. a couple of weeks later; and Highly Motivated, whose track record at Keeneland was admittedly one of several to fall Breeders’ Cup weekend but nonetheless attests to his abundant natural speed. As a sprinter who must show how far he can stretch, Highly Motivated sets a familiar challenge. But Mandaloun certainly measures the changing complexion of the genetic material nowadays complementing Into Mischief’s own contribution: he is a Juddmonte homebred, out of an Empire Maker mare who won a Group race over just short of 10 furlongs in Ireland.

Authentic was his sire’s flagship runner this year | Coady

The momentum behind Into Mischief, as such, looks inexorable for the next few years. His rise has been sustained by unusually reliable libido and fertility, and he remains assured of undiminished quantity to support the improving quality of his mares. His books have proved invulnerable to fee increases: his 2021 juveniles, conceived at $100,000, emerge from a book of 245; the next crop, at $150,000, from one of 241; and this year he covered 248 mares at $175,000. Obviously he has his home herd to service, gratis, but the turnover being generated by outside mares is still eye-watering.

Famously, of course, there are nine breeders out there who wouldn’t have to pay a cent–though presumably they will mostly have cashed out by now, having secured a lifetime breeding right by committing a mare to Into Mischief’s first two seasons. It was launching a couple of rookies into the backdraft of the 2008 financial crisis that inspired Spendthrift’s owner B. Wayne Hughes to develop Share the Upside, pioneer among many the incentive schemes that have meanwhile transformed the stallion industry in the Bluegrass. (A process, admittedly, that has discomfited many a farm; and, in candour, made some rivals resent the rise of Into Mischief as poster boy for a whole new culture.)

The kind of elite stallion Hughes is now managing to bring to the farm won’t need that kind of extra support. Both Spendthrift and its flagship stallion have come a long way since Into Mischief covered 50 mares at $7,500 in 2012, just as his first runners were about to reach the track.

Those first years earning his stripes do mean that Into Mischief is now in his prime, about to turn 16. He already has some promising sons at stud, even from his cheaper books, and breeders at all levels duly have more accessible alternatives: from those who sent 196 mares to Maximus Mischief at $7,500 in his debut book, to those who will pay 10 times that sum to reach Authentic this coming spring.

Nonetheless, after finishing 35th, 13th and fourth in the three years prior to his first title, Into Mischief is clearly going to take a lot of shifting from the summit for the time being. Yes, it remains possible for a handful of disproportionate purses in the international calendar to distort the validity of a pecking order determined by prize money. In fact, it had come to seem imperative to find a more instructive gauge after Unbridled’s Song won a posthumous championship in 2017 exclusively through the lucrative endeavors of Arrogate, who won the GI Pegasus and G1 Dubai World Cup in the first three months of the year. Otherwise Unbridled’s Song would have finished 44th. (Not that the horse so denied the title, Candy Ride {Arg}, could throw stones from his glass house: without Gun Runner, he would have finished 20th.)

Into Mischief at home at Spendthrift | Sarah Andrew

Hats off, then, to Into Mischief for restoring a helpful correlation between prize money and consistent merit. Last year, his top earner Covfefe contributed just $1,052,425 to an overall haul of $19,179,389. This time round, his progeny earned well over $15 million even without the bank vault filled by Authentic. That would still have put him $3 million clear of a runner-up, in Medaglia d’Oro, who himself owes very nearly half his 2020 earnings to his prolific Hong Kong star Golden Sixty (Aus).

And that’s in terms of global earnings. If measured by North American and European purses only, Into Mischief has doubled the tally of his nearest pursuer, Uncle Mo ($21.7 million against $10.6 million). To be fair, whatever else he is, he is not yet a stallion of intercontinental reach: his overseas earnings are marginal. But he is certainly restoring the good name of the championship he has retained.

This consistency of output is partly a function of the industrial Spendthrift model–which is driven by opportunity, to put it positively; or numbers, to put it more plainly. Even in a year where the pandemic devoured much of the springtime program, and in particular delayed the advent of the juveniles, Into Mischief has had 420 starters. (This and all other numbers cited remain subject to mild overnight updates, being correct to Dec. 30.) In the top 10 only Uncle Mo, standing on another farm that will not take kindly to the impending restriction on books to 140, has had even 300 starters.

So yes, there have been plenty of stallions in 2020 with a superior ratio of winners to starters. But the witting, willing trade-off made by these big commercial farms, who believe a stallion gets more momentum from headline horses than small-print percentages, does not actually weaken the credentials of the champion. Because his 15% black-type performers-to-starters is the best of the year; narrowly exceeding a rival, in War Front, who has always operated with quality ahead of quantity.  His 29 black-type winners, moreover, were assembled at a clip matched among Kentucky rivals only by Speightstown and, in another significant endorsement for the numbers game, Uncle Mo.

Other Top Proven Sires
We’ll be crediting several who have performed well behind Into Mischief in our ongoing series previewing covering options for 2021. For now, it’s worth giving honourable mentions to a handful. Multiple previous champion Tapit remains a wonder of consistency, once again on the podium; the splendid veteran Speightstown was unique in managing four individual Grade I winners; Munnings, in breaking into the top ten, has stopped smouldering and is now sparking at last, as high as fourth in the North American/European table; Hard Spun, following through on fourth last year with another excellent show in ninth, continues to outpunch his fee; and likewise The Factor, still only $17,500 despite only just missing the top 10 active Kentucky stallions.

Uncle Mo | Coolmore photo

But perhaps the most conspicuous achiever behind Into Mischief has been Uncle Mo–not just after ascending to fourth from 13th, but as the sire of three of the top four in the freshmen’s championship. That makes 2020 a game-changing year for Ashford’s linchpin of the Caro line, who is only turning 13.

Among his current racing stock, consistency was the key: while he didn’t muster a single Grade I winner, none could match Uncle Mo’s 14 individual graded stakes winners. But for a stallion with just six racing crops to have emerged virtually overnight as a sire of sires is quite extraordinary.

First-Crop Sires
Just as Nyquist emerged from Uncle Mo’s first crop to emulate his 2-year-old championship, so he has in turn become champion freshman sire (by prize money) with a GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner of his own. Vequist accounts for half the earnings banked by Nyquist’s 17 winners from 45 starters. He has not messed around: he only has two stakes winners, but both had the opportunism to win at Grade I level (Vequist plus Summer S. winner Gretzky the Great). Of five black-type performers overall, moreover, Nyquist has had two others placed at the elite level.

If Nyquist has jumped through the same hoops as his sire, Laoban came out of left field–or at least out of New York, where he had started at $5,000. After pulling fairytale GI Alcibiades S. winner Simply Ravishing out of his hat, Laoban is on his way to WinStar in Kentucky where he will join Outwork, their sire’s other fast starter with 19 winners.

Not This Time | Jon Siegel

Intruding on Uncle Mo’s private party was Not This Time, far and away the most prolific with no fewer than 28 individual winners from 54 starters. He has proved he can get a good one, too, with the charismatic OBS Spring Sale-topper Princess Noor a runaway winner of the GI Del Mar Debutante (unfortunately since retired with a soft tissue injury).

Second-Crop Sires
These young guns will now look to consolidate after the fashion of American Pharoah and Constitution, who finished first and second in the freshmen’s table last year and fill the same positions in the second-crop championship. The big mover in this group was obviously Daredevil, whose star filly Swiss Skydiver helped him up to fourth, and back to the Bluegrass from Turkey, after her anonymous debut last year.

Third-Crop Sires and Beyond
Top of the preceding intake remains Goldencents, who finished second as a freshman and first last year. This was the first racehorse to show that Into Mischief might become a more potent sire than had been expected. Who can say, then, which unheralded young stallion may commence some equivalent rags-to-riches rise in 2021? That’s the whole beauty of this business. We’re always seeing stallions who seem to have the world at their feet, falling flat on their faces; and the converse, too.

As Hughes constantly reminds his team at Spendthrift: “Nobody knows.” That may seem a disadvantage, if you’re trying to put together any kind of coherent business plan with Thoroughbreds. But actually it’s what gives us all a chance–and the reason why Into Mischief, for all the uncomfortable challenges Hughes has set more conventional competitors, deserves a universal toast on concluding another remarkable chapter in his epic tale.

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