Sometimes a big weekend of prep races brings answers to key development questions on the GI Kentucky Derby trail. Other times–like this past Saturday–those major stakes only produce more questions. Part of the fun about the emerging puzzle this year is that at this point, no one contender within the Top 12 stands very far above his peers.
1) CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (c, Giant's Causeway–Private World, by Thunder Gulch) O/B-Kentucky West Racing LLC & Clarke M. Cooper Family Living Trust (KY). T-Brian A. Lynch. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 4-2-1-1, $301,100. Last Start: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis S. Next Start: GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 12. KY Derby Points: 16.
Trainer Brian Lynch has termed both of Classic Causeway's works since his Feb. 12 victory as “strong” and he is confident this colt's apparent fondness for racing over the sandy Tampa strip will make him a worthy favorite in Saturday's GII Tampa Bay Derby. A glance at the latest “probables” list shouldn't inspire much fear in the favorite's camp, because unless there's an unexpected entrant before draw time Wednesday, there are no other Top 12 contenders making the trip to Tampa.
But–as annually warned in this space–Tampa sometimes produces quirky results, and the last four editions of its Derby have been won by longshots at odds higher than 8-1. Between 1987 and 1996, before Tampa's sophomore stakes became attractive, points-awarding Kentucky Derby preps, four sophomores swept both the Davis and the Tampa Derby. But in the 25 years since then, only two horses have managed that increasingly difficult double (Burning Roma in '01 and Destin in '16). Yet this Giant's Causeway homebred for Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper brings impressive credentials: His Davis romp featured an impressive burst of late-race acceleration that produced the fastest final sixteenth of any prep at 1 1/16 miles so far this season, and he ran tenaciously as a juvenile against heavy hitters in two of the more difficult graded stakes last autumn.
2) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $364,810. Last Start: 2nd GII Risen Star S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 30.
'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy beat three next-out stakes winners in his visually arresting GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. victory last November, and his February comeback in the GII Risen Star S. was punctuated by a too-late closing kick after enduring mild trip trouble. As the highest-priced of 45 Runhappy yearlings to sell at auction in 2020 ($185,000 FTKSEL after a $175,000 KEENOV buy), Smile Happy stands out as a colt with a maturity edge who responds to being rated off the pace and is capable of uncorking highly torqued far-turn moves that aren't in the toolboxes of most rivals. On Saturday at Gulfstream, he was back on the work tab for the first time since his last race, breezing a half mile in :49.03 (33/76). Two Grade I's, the Curlin Florida Derby or the Toyota Blue Grass S., have been mentioned as a possible next start, and Kenny McPeek said a factor in the decision will be a desire by owner Lucky Seven Stable to keep Smile Happy separated from stablemate Rattle N Roll (Connect), who is ranked at No. 12.
3) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: 5-3-2-0, $285,600. Last Start: 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S. Next Start: Probable for GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: N/A.
  'TDN Rising Star' Messier now has two published workouts since his blowout 15-length, 103-Beyer thumping of the GIII Robert B. Lewis S. field on Feb. 6. This $470,000 FTKSEL colt by Empire Maker is parked atop the depth chart within trainer Bob Baffert's perennially deep stable of Derby contenders, but his starting status for the first leg of the Triple Crown is in limbo while Baffert litigates both a banishment by Churchill Downs, Inc., and an equine medication suspension by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission. Although the subpar Lewis field is not a proper measuring stick to judge how good Messier might really be, note that two starts back this colt beat Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah) in the GIII Bob Hope S., and that rival has since won two Santa Anita graded stakes in succession, including last Saturday's GII San Felipe S.
4) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-2, $221,800. Last Start: 3rd GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 12.
Mo Donegal was the 3-1 morning-line favorite for last Saturday's GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. until he scratched three days before the race. The scratch itself wasn't a shocker, because trainer Todd Pletcher had said at entry time that Mo Donegal's starting status would be post-draw dependent. So when this $250,000 KEESEP colt drew the 12 hole–hardly ideal for a closer on Gulfstream's short-stretch 1 1/16 miles configuration–Pletcher withdrew. Jerry Crawford of Donegal Racing told TDN that Mo Donegal had also developed a “minor virus,” which now means the GII Wood Memorial S. Apr. 9 at Aqueduct will serve as the colt's lone Derby prep stakes between February and May. Pletcher “didn't seem particularly concerned about this,” Crawford said. “Before the virus popped up, one of the options we were seriously considering was training up to the Wood. So this isn't that big a change of plans for us.”
5) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause) O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 3-1-1-0, $139,500. Last Start: 3rd GII Risen Star S. Next Start: Possible for GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 14.
It's too early in the season for there to be a “wise guy” horse among the Derby aspirants. That informal designation annually gets applied to a better-than-he-looks contender sometime around Derby week itself, and it's a figurative way of saying the supposed sharpies will be pounding that horse in the betting because they see value where the public doesn't. But Zandon's adversity-overcoming narrative has been so well publicized this winter that you have to start to wonder if he'll be able to live up to it. This $170,000 KEESEP colt by Upstart is still only a MSW sprint winner. But his widespread appeal stems from the way Zandon handled himself under duress in two nine-furlong stakes. His loss by a head when getting roughed up in the stretch of the GII Remsen S. made national headlines because of the controversial non-DQ of Mo Donegal. And every trip handicapper in the nation noted Zandon blowing the break of the Risen Star S., only to catch the eye with a stout three-furlong run that culminated with Zandon digging in to win a tight photo for third. We've all seen his potential, but pretty soon he's going to have to actually deliver. Trainer Chad Brown has mentioned the GI Blue Grass S. as this colt's next start. That's a race that Brown knows how to target effectively: The last four times Brown has had a starter in the Blue Grass, the results have been one win and three close seconds.
6) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $410,639. Last Start: 1st GII Risen Star S. Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26. KY Derby Points: 64.
The way it stands now, Epicenter will be the only Top 12 contender to complete the month of March with at least six lifetime starts under his belt. That's still not very many based on historical benchmarks. But under the current less-is-more Derby training mindset, it could give this $260,000 KEESEP colt an advantage over more lightly raced peers. Nyquist in 2016 was the last Derby winner to amass at least seven starts prior to Louisville, and it seems like ages ago when California Chrome started 10 times prior to his 2014 Derby victory. (The last Derby winner with double-digit starts before him? Charismatic with 14 in 1999.) Epicenter's seasoning is already evident in the unruffled, no-nonsense way he goes about his business, and while not a flashy sort of frontrunner, he cranks out honest fractions and fights off whoever comes after him without looking intimidated or in over his head. If he runs away with the 1 3/16-miles GII Louisiana Derby in his next start, he'll additionally be the only A-list sophomore to have won both at and beyond nine furlongs.
7) SIMPLIFICATION (c, Not This Time–Simply Confection, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Tami Bobo. B-France & Irwin Weiner (FL). T-Antonio Sano. Sales History: $50,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-3-1-1, $411,350. Last Start: 1st GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2. KY Derby Points: 54.
Simplification had been pegged as a needs-the-lead type of horse as recently as last month. But when he tossed his head at the break and then showed he could come from behind to get second in the Feb. 5 GIII Holy Bull S., trainer Antonio Sano sensed he might have a colt capable of firing well regardless of where he was positioned. In Saturday's Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth , Simplification ($50,000 RNA KEENOV) saved ground near the fence while midpack through the first turn, then was angled out to avoid getting pocketed on the back straight. Jockey Jose Ortiz did some lateral weaving and minor brake tapping to keep from getting stalled, but once Simplification was guided outside and into the clear approaching the far bend, it became obvious that Ortiz's strategy was not to let 'TDN Rising Star' Emmanuel (More Than Ready) out of his striking sights. Simplification followed that rival and was asked to rev it up three-eighths out, and although Emmanuel got the first jump, the widest-of-all Simplification had built the better momentum. The two faves left trouble behind off the turn (neither affected by the two-horse spill right behind them), and Simplification swooped down to the inside to finish with purpose. He earned a 96 Beyer Speed Figure, and will be aimed at the GI Florida Derby.
8) EMMANUEL (c, More Than Ready–Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Helen K. Groves Revocable Trust (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher.
Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-0, $69,600. Last Start: 4th GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. Next Start: Possible for GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2. KY Derby Points: 5.
Even though Simplification was six wide into the stretch of the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., Emmanuel ran 38 feet (about four lengths) more that the winner, according to Trakus, while checking in fourth. The read here is that this brawny 'TDN Rising Star' and $350,000 KEESEP son of More Than Ready will be a more dangerous commodity in the Florida Derby. Although Emmanuel lacked the characteristic early speed that propelled him to a 2-for-2 career start, he still put in a solid far-turn move after a four-wide journey through the clubhouse turn, a nine-wide placement on the backstretch, then a five-wide run through the far bend. He also suffered some momentum loss in upper stretch when Simplification veered down and claimed an inner path, but when Luis Saez switched Emmanuel off Simplification's heels it was clear this colt was already spent and had no true spark for the final furlong. With only five Kentucky Derby qualifying points to his credit, Emmanuel either delivers big in the Florida Derby or will have to make other plans for the first Saturday in May.
9) FORBIDDEN KINGDOM (c, American Pharoah–Just Louise, by Five Star Day) O-MyRacehorse & Spendthrift Farm LLC. B-Springhouse Farm (KY). T-Richard E. Mandella. Sales History: $300,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-1-1, $434,000. Last Start: 1st GII San Felipe S. Next Start: GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. KY Derby Points: 50.
Forbidden Kingdom's 5 3/4-length wiring of the GII San Felipe S. on Saturday launched him into the Top 12, yet he still rates as a wild card when it comes to what the 98-Beyer victory means in the overall Derby picture. This son of American Pharoah ($300,000 FTKSEL) owns rocketing early speed and an assertive way of weaponizing that chief attribute. But this year's renewal of the San Felipe came up weak on paper, and early speed had a decided advantage at Santa Anita on Saturday, with four of five dirt races being won by horses who either led all the way or dueled for the lead. And even though Forbidden Kingdom wasn't being ridden all-out once it became evident he had the race wrapped up in deep stretch, his final sixteenth of 7.09 seconds rates as the slowest among all Derby qualifying points races at 1 1/16 miles from the Breeders' Cup onward in 2021-22. But Forbidden Kingdom does have that patient Richard Mandella mojo in his favor (a master at training horses to peak when he wants them to). And as jockey Juan Hernandez put it, “He's really fast. A couple of jumps after we broke, he was in front already. I let him run because if you fight with him he tries to go faster. I let him have fun. I turned him loose and he never stopped.”
Forbidden Kingdom | Benoit Photo
10) EARLY VOTING (c, Gun Runner–Amour d'Ete, by Tiznow) O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC. T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $200,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $181,500. Last Start: 1st GIII Withers S. Next Start: GII Wood Memorial, AQU, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 10.
Is the Derby winner wintering in New York? Belmont Park-based Early Voting is being aimed for the Wood Memorial, and a win there would run his lifetime record to 3-for-3, with all of those victories at Aqueduct. That would be quite a remarkable past performance block for a Derby starter, both in terms of brevity and geography. But because trainer Chad Brown is known for taking his time with developing horses, even a Wood victory might not guarantee that he tosses this $200,000 KEESEP into the Derby fray.
In some ways, Early Voting and stablemate Zandon are yins to each other's yangs. Early Voting owns two wins, including a nine-furlong stakes, but still comes across as light on experience. Zandon is a winner of just a MSW sprint, but he's a more proven commodity when it comes to handling in-race adversity, and he's already dealt with shipping for a big stakes. There's lots to like about each, but Early Voting does seem like the one whose potential for peaking might come later in the season.
11) WHITE ABARRIO (c, Race Day–Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief) O-C2 Racing Stable LLC and La Milagrosa Stable, LLC. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $7,500 ylg '20 OBSWIN; $40,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-1, $240,850. Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2. KY Derby Points: 12.
The stock of athletic, nimble White Abarrio got boosted a bit over the weekend even though he only breezed at Gulfstream in anticipation for the Florida Derby. That's because two of the horses he beat in the Holy Bull S. last month came back to win stakes in their next starts. Simplification, second in the Holy Bull, returned victorious in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., while Tiz the Bomb (Hit It a Bomb) rebounded off a seventh-place try to score in the Battaglia S. at Turfway.   “[Saturday's results] really franked the form and [it] gives you some confidence when you know the form is legit,” said trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. “We just need him to stay healthy and sound. We know he has the class and the ability.”
This son of Race Day ($7,500 OBSWIN; $40,000 OBSMAR) has a distinct home track advantage at Gulfstream (3-for-3), and his rematch with Simplification looms as one of the more anticipated rivalries of the prep season.
12) RATTLE N ROLL (c, Connect–Jazz Tune, by Johannesburg) O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-St. Simon Place (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $55,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $210,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-2-0-1, $383,460. Last Start: 6th GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 10.
You could have almost put the proverbial cross-out line through Rattle N Roll's performance in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth before he even ran the race. Trainer Kenny McPeek didn't say it straight out, but he signaled pre-race that this son of Connect ($55,000 KEENOV; $210,000 KEESEP) wouldn't likely be fully cranked to fire his best shot off a five-month layoff. As we saw in his GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S. win back on Oct. 9, this is a large-framed colt who needs the opportunity to uncoil for one prolonged bid. So being hemmed in traffic while racing over a short-stretch configuration on a surface that tilts in favor of early speed was probably not the ideal way to showcase Rattle N Roll's tactical attributes. He broke last, was guided to the rail, then incrementally advanced down the backstretch. A half mile out, he was eighth, yet only 2 1/2 lengths off the leaders in a tightly bunched field. But Rattle N Roll never truly dug in and fired at any point. I'm inclined to think his Fountain of Youth effort was too blah to be true, and that he'll be a tighter fighter at nine furlongs.
On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):
Belgrade (Hard Spun): This 2-for-2 Graham Motion trainee ($45,000 FTKSEL; $700,000 KEEJAN) listed as “likely” for Saturday's Tampa Bay Derby, which will be this colt's route debut.
Blackadder (Quality Road): Bullet move Monday morning for this $620,000 KEESEP Baffert colt who exits an off-pace win in the El Camino Real Derby.
Charge It (Tapit): Whisper Hill Farm homebred named 'TDN Rising Star' for Pletcher when daylight winner in a one-turn MSW mile at Gulfstream. He's nominated to the Blue Grass, so that could be a possible April prep.
Ethereal Road (Quality Road): Led from quarter pole until 50 yards from wire after wide journey in slowly run Rebel S.; GI Arkansas Derby next for this D. Wayne Lukas-trained $90,000 KEEEP colt.
In Due Time (Not This Time): Three-time sales grad ($9,500 KEENOV; $35,000 KEESEP; $95,000 OBSAPR) ran second in Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. in first two-turn try. Trainer Kelly Breen: “The Florida Derby is in our backyard, but I won't say anything until I talk to the owners and come up with a game plan.”
Major General (Constitution): The 2-for-2 winner of the Sept. 18 Iroquois S. ($265,000 KEEJAN; $420,000 KEESEP) slated for Saturday's Tampa Derby off nearly six-month hiatus.
Morello (Classic Empire): Speed-centric colt ($140,000 KEENOV; $200,000 FTKSEL; $250,000 EASMAY) is now 3-for-3 in one-turn races after sharp 96-Beyer score in GIII Gotham S.
Tiz the Bomb (Hit It a Bomb): Runner-up in GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (FTKSEL $330,000) regrouped off dirt-eating Holy Bull S. seventh with points-earning score in Turfway's Battaglia S. over Tapeta.
Un Ojo (Laoban): New York-bred gelding has already locked up 54 qualifying points for Louisville, but must prove in Arkansas Derby that his 75-1 rain-soaked shocker in the GII Rebel S. was no fluke.
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