Sid Fernando | Horse Racing Free Tips

Taking Stock: Practical Joke Is Value

There's a lot that can be gleaned from the freshman sires and leading sires of 2-year-olds lists.

Last year, Coolmore America's Practical Joke (Into Mischief) was second to Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg}) on the freshman sire list by progeny earnings, $2,339,717 to $4,315,980. Those numbers were good enough to make Gun Runner the leading sire of 2-year-olds and Practical Joke third, with leading sire Into Mischief splitting the newcomers with $2,971,018. That Practical Joke tied Gun Runner by number of black-type winners with six, tops among all freshman sires, suggested he was passing on some real quality to his 2-year-olds. This year, that's been confirmed: Practical Joke is sixth on the 2-year-old list with earnings of $2,197,908 through Tuesday, and he's the sire of three juvenile black-type winners, including Grade l winner Chocolate Gelato–his first in the Northern Hemisphere–and Grade ll winner Practical Move.

Practical Move won the Gll Los Alamitos Futurity Dec. 17, a race that was expected to be a cakewalk for the Justify (Scat Daddy) colt Arabian Lion. Had the latter won, Justify, who also stands at Coolmore America, would have significantly tightened the race for champion first-crop sire and given the Triple Crown winner a leading seven black-type winners for the year. As it now stands, Justify is third on the freshman list with earnings of $2,398,040 behind Hill 'n' Dale's Good Magic with $2,473,517 and leader Spendthrift's Bolt d'Oro with $2,641,366 (all statistics are through Tuesday and for the Northern Hemisphere only).

On the leading 2-year-old sire list, Into Mischief is on top, followed by Bolt d'Oro (Medaglia d'Oro), Hill 'n' Dale's Violence (Medaglia d'Oro), Good Magic (Curlin), Justify, and Practical Joke.

This puts Practical Joke, who will stand for $25,000 live foal next year, in heady company and makes him a bargain at that. His sire Into Mischief's fee is $250,000. Bolt d'Oro's advertised fee for 2023 is $35,000, but he can't be had for that anymore. He's booked full at the farm price and only a couple of NG seasons are available, with one offered the other day for $42,000–the equivalent of close to $55,000 live foal if converted with insurance. Violence and Good Magic are both advertised at $50,000 and selling fast, and Justify, who was initially advertised at $100,000 for 2023, is now at $150,000 live foal as he closes in on a full book.

Three Chimneys's Gun Runner is listed as private but his fee is in the neighborhood of $300,000.

Gun Runner's first crop has now yielded a surreal total of six Grade l winners, which justifiably makes him the most expensive sire in North America. But so far he has no 2-year-old black-type winners from his second crop, which has earned $1,385,921–good for number 21 on the 2-year-old list that he led last year. In a head-to-head comparison of second-crop juveniles, Practical Joke beats Gun Runner across the board, including by winners (24 to 17), black-type winners, black-type runners (seven to four) and Grade l winners.

As a general rule, second crops don't perform as well as first crops, but Practical Joke has admirably held his form with his second crop by progeny earnings, $2,197,908 versus $2,339,717 from last year.

Practical Joke's performance is also notable compared to the eight stallions who finished behind him on the first-crop Top 10 list last year, listed here by progeny earnings from last year versus this year's figures for their current juveniles: Connect ($2,106,071 vs. $1,235,808 ), Classic Empire ($1,645,824 vs. $818,616), Cupid ($1,303,652 vs. $98,947), Klimt ($1,276,592 vs. $728,861 and exported), Caravaggio ($1,275,118 vs. $191,481 and exported), Gormley ($1,126,007 vs. $553,091), Mohaymen ($1,074,109 vs. $169,044), and deceased Arrogate ($1,069,239 vs. $1,795,218). Only Arrogate's second-crop juveniles outperformed his first.

Stallions frequently cover a lower number of mares in their second year at stud, and these mares are generally of lesser quality than those from their first year, which mostly accounts for this paradigm. Cupid, who also stands at Coolmore America, is a particularly stark example. Last year, he was represented by 123 named 2-year-olds, of which 75 started and 23 won. This year, he has 29 juveniles, eight starters, and two winners.

Expect similar results next year for some of the leading freshman sires of 2022, and pay attention to those like Practical Joke whose numbers don't fall off a cliff with their second crop of 2-year-olds.

Practical Joke's Second Career

Practical Joke, an outstanding physical specimen who stands 16.2 hands, is bred like Life Is Good, one of Into Mischief's most talented racing sons and another physical standout who will cover mares for $100,000 at WinStar next year. Both are out of Distorted Humor mares–Practical Joke's dam is Halo Humor, a black type-placed sprinter–and neither was suited for Classic distances, but both had plenty of talent over shorter trips.

Life Is Good won only a maiden special at two. Practical Joke, trained by Chad Brown for Klaravich Stables and William H. Lawrence, won three of his four starts as a juvenile, including the Gl Hopeful S. and the Gl Champagne S. His only loss was a third-place finish in the Gl Breeders' Cup Juvenile to Classic Empire and Not This Time.

At three, Practical Joke was put on the Classics trail and performed well enough, even running fifth of 20 in the Gl Kentucky Derby, but he didn't win again until he was cut back in distance. His most notable score that year came in the Gl H. Allen Jerkens S. over seven furlongs.

He was retired to stud in 2018 with a record of five wins from 12 starts and earnings of close to $1.8 million, and he stood for $30,000 his first year. He's been well patronized since.

Like many Coolmore horses, he was also shuttled, in his case to Haras Paso Nevado in Chile, and he's been Gun Runner-like over there with four first-crop Group 1 winners to date. Perhaps the more appropriate comparison is “Scat Daddy-like,” because Paso Nevado also shuttled Coolmore's Scat Daddy, who sired busloads of South American Group 1 winners before he got rolling in the Northern Hemisphere. Two of the four top-level Practical Joke winners in Chile are from Scat Daddy mares, and the other two are from mares by Lookin At Lucky and Powerscourt (GB), two other Coolmore sires that shuttled to Paso Nevado at one time or another.

Meanwhile in the Northern Hemisphere Practical Joke is the sire of 11 black-type winners so far, meaning that some of his stakes-winning 2-year-olds from last year have trained on at three. One of them is Wit, who won the Glll Sanford S., was second in the Hopeful and third in the Champagne. Wit won the Glll Bay Shore S. over seven furlongs earlier this year but has recently transitioned to the turf, on which he won a listed race at Saratoga before placing in the Gl Hollywood Derby at Del Mar over nine furlongs on Dec. 3. The favorite in the race, Wit was beaten by three-quarters of a length for everything.

Another is Girl With a Dream, a listed winner last year who won the Glll Forward Gal S. this year. Practical Joke also has had some first-time 3-year-old stakes winners, like Little Vic, who won the Listed $100,000 City of Laurel S. on Nov. 26.

But horses like Gl Frizette S. winner Chocolate Gelato and Grade ll winner Practical Move, plus the four Group 1 winners in Chile, suggest that Practical Joke has more in the tank, and that's a tantalizing thought, especially at a fee that's below those of the notable young sires he's running with.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

The post Taking Stock: Practical Joke Is Value appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Taking Stock: David Ingordo and Flightline

David Ingordo of Lane's End Bloodstock doesn't smile much, and when he does, it's usually a half-smile. But he does have a sense of humor. On Sunday afternoon, he was spotted at Keeneland outside the Lane's End consignment wearing a gray vest with the name “David DeVaux” embroidered on the chest, a nod and a wink to his trainer wife Cherie DeVaux.

Ingordo likes to be incognito and shuns the spotlight whenever he can, but he's very much in that spotlight at the moment, thanks to Flightline (Tapit), who first caught Ingordo's eye as a short yearling on breeder Jane Lyon's Summer Wind Farm. Flightline is under the care of another trainer, John Sadler, with whom he has a longstanding relationship. Sadler has known Ingordo since Ingordo, 46, was in a crib–Ingordo's father, Jerry Ingordo, a well-known jock's agent who handled Laffit Pincay Jr., among others, had been a mentor to the young Sadler when he was 21 and starting out.

Relationships are important to Ingordo. Seventeen years ago at this same sale at Keeneland, Ingordo was behind the $60,000 purchase of Mr. and Mrs. Jerry Moss's Zenyatta (Street Cry {Ire}). That iconic mare was trained by John Shirreffs, who's married to Ingordo's mother, Dottie Ingordo-Shirreffs, and Zenyatta's success made Ingordo one of the most sought-after bloodstock agents in the business. Will and Bill Farish of Lane's End were quick to hire Ingordo after Zenyatta, and he's been with Lane's End ever since, developing a particularly close relationship with Bill Farish, whose Woodford Racing is one of the partners in Flightline, along with Summer Wind, Hronis Racing, Siena Farm, and West Point Thoroughbreds. On Monday, it was officially announced that Flightline would stand at stud at Lane's End upon the conclusion of his racing career.

Ingordo's Eye

A strongly made bay colt by Medaglia d'Oro from the Distorted Humor mare Pauline Revere, a half-sister to the 2022 American Pharoah Grade I winner American Theorem, was the first horse through the ring Monday. Consigned by Lane's End, the colt was bred by the partnership of Gage Hill Stables and W.S. Farish and was purchased by Talla Racing and West Point Thoroughbreds for $850,000.

A day earlier, Ingordo had the colt out for inspection for one more look before the sale. Bill Farish, wearing a Lane's End vest, was under the shedrow observing from a distance.

“At Lane's End, I've seen a lot of these horses growing up, so it's a little unfair to other horses. This horse has gotten better and better and better. I've probably seen this horse every 60 days his whole life. I like the horses that come forward each time I see them. This is my kind of horse. He's got substance,” Ingordo said.

“Medaglia d'Oro was probably one of the most beautiful horses I ever laid eyes on,” said Ingordo as he walked around the colt, looking him up and down before patting him on the shoulder. Medaglia d'Oro, a son of El Prado (Ire), stands at Darley and was trained by Bobby Frankel, for whom Ingordo worked as a teenager. He was one of the first Sadler's Wells-line horses to succeed at top level on dirt in N. America, and from his first crop he got Rachel Alexandra, who was produced from a Forty Niner-line mare like the yearling Ingordo was critiquing.

“[Medaglia d'Oro] is probably in my top 10 of all time physicals. This horse has got the right blend of Medaglia and Distorted Humor with the strength. The pasterns aren't too long. He's got a big forearm and gaskins–I hate a light forearm and light gaskin on studs; fillies, I can give them a pass. This colt has good bone. One of the biggest problems we have in our breed is that we're breeding the bone out of these horses. This horse could stand training for my taste.”

Ingordo dropped down and pointed to a large vein running down the upper part of the colt's inside hind leg. “All these other guys do heart scans and everything, but see that vein inside? That big vein is something that I always look for. I like to see it be very prominent.”

Ingordo has great knowledge of pedigrees–some are judges of pure physical specimens only–and he wants what's in front of him to match closely to what he sees on the catalog page. “It's like a BMW, to use an example. It's got the symbol on the front. You might have different designs of BMWs, different models, but the models fit a spec.”

Ingordo asked the handler to walk the colt. “It's not a walking contest,” he said, “but if they're a little close behind or something, it doesn't bother me. I don't mind if they're a little choppy or this or that, but I want them to use their hindquarters and reach with their shoulders. This colt is nice. He's wide. A nice swing to his tail. It looks like he'd push off and go. He's a nice moving horse, he uses himself. That's what I like to see.”

Like most judges, Ingordo prefers a well-defined shoulder set at the right angle, a beautiful neck, ample girth, short cannon bones, and overall balance, but he also looks for good length on a line from the point of hip to the tip of the hock–“That's the lever,” he said.

And he's a stickler for rear-end construction. “I always stand behind them. I want to see like a beam, a big, broad beam, when you draw this line. It's a flat square. You got the big gaskins and you drop down with these two pillars being the hind legs. This horse has a nice square hind end on him. It's actually not dissimilar to a horse like Flightline. Everything is defined and nice and strong.”

Flightline

Before Flightline became Flightline, an undefeated winner of five starts who won his last race by an astonishing 19 1/4 lengths in 1:59.28, eased up in the 10 furlongs of the Gl Pacific Classic S., he was bay yearling gamboling in a paddock in early 2019 with another chestnut Tapit colt at Summer Wind named Triple Tap, a half-brother to American Pharoah who's now won two of six starts for Bob Baffert and owner/breeder Summer Wind.

“In January of Flightline's yearling year, shortly after the holidays, Bill Farish told me we have to go out to Ms. Lyon's place to look at a Tapit half to American Pharoah,” Ingordo said. “The impetus was that Jane [Lyon] had talked to Bill Farish on wanting to stay in on Triple Tap and putting a partnership together to race him. We got in the car and drive out, and they bring out two colts by Tapit. The first one was Flightline, but he was the paddock buddy of the one we're supposed to look at. So, after we're looking at them, I kind of say out loud, I like this brown one better. Bill's like, shut up and look at the other horse. That's who we're here to see. You know, don't be rude kind of thing.”

Over the next few months, Ingordo would see both colts on a regular basis, and he made a mental note about Flightline.

As chance would have it, months later Ingordo ended up catching a ride on a Tex Sutton flight taking Lane's End-consigned yearlings to Saratoga for the yearling sale. “One of the guys on the flight who knows my wife said, 'David, you care to snap a shank on a couple of them yearlings? It's getting ready to be bumpy.' I said, 'Yeah, I'll do that.' So I get up and see this brown horse and I'm petting him–I like horses–and snap a shank on him. I look down at the halter and it says 'Flightline.' I say, 'Oh shoot, it's that horse.' Later on, I'm shortlisting and I look at all our Lane's End yearlings, and I said to Bill, 'That's the horse. He's the horse we liked on the farm when we were out looking at Triple Tap.'”

Ingordo said Farish spoke to Lyon about the colt. “Bill said she wants a lot of money for the horse but would stay in for a leg, but we have to put a deal together around the horse. So we sat down and penciled who we could call.”

The rest is history. The colt sold for $1 million to West Point at Saratoga.

Ingordo is quick to point out that the partners in the horse–“the best group of owners”–are instrumental in his success, because each owner was 100-percent behind giving the colt the time he needed to realize his potential at every step in the process. And, Ingordo noted, there were several hiccups along with way before the horse even got to Sadler that would have tested the patience of others.

“When he had the freak injury to his hindquarter in February of his 2-year-old year–it was a freak thing, and these things happen–we did the right thing and gave him the time, and nobody panicked,” Ingordo said. “And then when he was getting ready to ship to California–I literally had him booked on the plane–a little odd thing happened. Just tweaked something. Never had surgery, nothing like that. We had to give him more time, sent him to Kentucky, had him checked out, gave him the time again. There was no hesitation on anyone's part. It was just, do the right thing. Then he ran, and after that, later, he stepped on a rock and got a deep foot bruise that popped out. That took more time.

“But this is a textbook case of, if you want to run a top-level horse that puts everything into his races and has been unlucky with a couple of bull-crappy things, this is how you do it from an ownership standpoint.”

Ingordo never went to California to see Flightline race in the Pacific Classic, but he'll have a front row seat at Keeneland for the Gl Breeders' Cup Classic. He'll be in the spotlight there whether he likes it or not.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

The post Taking Stock: David Ingordo and Flightline appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Taking Stock: Sharp as a Tack

Pan the camera away from Saratoga and Del Mar, where the glamorous juveniles debut one after another, and focus for a moment on two lower-profile tracks that hosted two eye-popping performances this weekend.

On Saturday at Prairie Meadows, Tyler's Tribe, a 2-year-old Iowa-bred gelding by Sharp Azteca (Freud), won the 5 1/2-furlong Iowa Stallion Futurity by 12 1/2 lengths in 1:04:18 to remain undefeated in three starts. He earned a 90 Beyer Speed Figure–you read that correctly–for the easy score. It wasn't a fluke, either, because in his previous start Tyler's Tribe won the Prairie Gold Juvenile S. at the same track and distance by 8 1/2 lengths in 1:03.64, earning an 86 Beyer.

Now shift to Monmouth, where the 2-year-old colt Sharp Aza Tack, also by Sharp Azteca, won the 5-furlong Tyro S. Saturday on turf by 7 1/2 lengths in :55.71, his second win in as many starts. He was given an 85 Beyer.

Those speed figures are amongst the highest earned by juveniles males this year, and they were delivered by two first-crop runners of a stallion who started off for $10,000 at Three Chimneys but is surprisingly among the leading freshman sires and is as sharp as a tack on the lesser circuits.

Through Monday, Coolmore America's Justify (Scat Daddy) led all first-crop sires by progeny earnings with $558,021. The Triple Crown winner was unraced at two but is already represented by two group/graded winners, both fillies, one in Europe and the other at Saratoga. At Del Mar Sunday, another promising filly, Justique, won a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special in her first start by going from last to first in a visually stunning race, and she was promptly named a 'TDN Rising Star.' A $725,000 Keeneland September purchase, Justique was given a 72 Beyer for her win. Her sire stood for $150,000 in his first year at stud and obviously attracted some of the best mares around. Justique, for example, is a half-sister to Grade l winner Mo Town.

The same can't be said for the first book of Sharp Azteca, a Grade l winner of $2.4 million, but he is nevertheless second to Justify by earnings with $521,940 and tied with him as co-leader of black-type winners. And Sharp Azteca leads all freshmen sires with 13 winners, which is seven more than Justify has so far. This is surprising because the stallion raced only once at two, in December at that, and he didn't win his first start until late February at three, like Justify. What this suggests is that perhaps the Sharp Aztecas will have improvement in them with age, and perhaps he won't end up as a flash in the pan, as most inexpensive stallions who strike early but fail to sustain momentum do. Only time will tell, of course, but at the moment, Sharp Azteca is a revelation and another success story for Three Chimneys, which hit the lottery last year when Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg}) surpassed already lofty expectations with his first crop to land the freshman sires' championship. He has since gone on to even greater glory with his 3-year-olds.

Sharp Azteca–a son of a full brother to Giant's Causeway–won eight of 17 starts but didn't become a Grade l winner until late at four, when he won the Cigar Mile by 5 1/4 lengths from Grade l winner Mind Your Biscuits, with another Grade l winner, Practical Joke, 2 3/4 lengths away in third. Gun Runner, by the way, didn't become a Grade l winner until he was four as well.

Sharp Azteca's first yearlings weren't particularly in demand, averaging $36,228, with a median of $30,000 last year. Tyler's Tribe made $34,000 as an Iowa yearling. Sharp Aza Tack sold for twice the average, $72,000, at Keeneland September and then again for $100,000 at OBS March this year. He's been his sire's only maiden winner at a top track so far. Before the Tyro, the colt won a five-furlong maiden special on turf at Santa Anita.

Sharp Azteca's other winners have come at places like Ellis Park, Lone Star, Canterbury, Louisiana Downs, Colonial, Finger Lakes, Puerto Rico, Mexico, etc., so he's bringing the fight to Justify and other higher profile first-crop sires from the bottom up and doing an admirable job of it. For instance, the filly Alma Rose won a six-furlong maiden special at Colonial Downs July 19 by 10 1/2 lengths; a day earlier, another filly, Cuz Ur Pretty, won a five-furlong maiden special at Finger Lakes by 9 3/4 lengths; Mister Sharpie won a five-furlong maiden special at Louisiana Downs July 10 by 5 lengths.; and Tyler's Trible won his debut June 20 at Prairie Meadows in a 4 1/2-furlong race by 16 3/4 lengths. You get the picture.

Both Tyler's Tribe and Sharp Aza Tack have run fast enough to suggest they will be competitive at places like Saratoga and Del Mar, and if they take after their sire, they should improve with age, too. If and when that happens, Sharp Azteca's profile will get a huge boost.

Other Factors

The camera loves Sharp Azteca. He's an exceptionally well conformed and attractive stallion. See for yourself in the embedded video. He's also a grandson of Storm Cat, and his first four dams are by such sires as Saint Liam, Conquistador Cielo, Danzig, and Forli. His dam is a half-sister to the dams of Firing Line, who was second in the Gl Kentucky Derby, and multiple Grade l winner Bowies Hero. His fifth dam is Canadian champion filly and Broodmare of the Year Kamar, a daughter of Key to the Mint who was a foundation mare for Three Chimneys, producing millionaire Gorgeous for then Three Chimneys owner Robert Clay (she was bred by Hermitage Farm, A.G. Clay, and R.N. Clay), as well as Gl Kentucky Oaks winner Seaside Attraction (bred by the same partnership as Gorgeous) for W.T. Young's Overbrook.

What's not to like, then, about Sharp Azteca?

In two words, Jorge Navarro.

The disgraced trainer, who's now behind bars, handled Sharp Azteca throughout his career. In March of 2020, Navarro, with others, was charged by the U.S. Attorney's Office of the Southern District (SDNY) of New York with two counts of misbranding and adulterating drugs and “doping” horses within his care.

In 2019, Sharp Azteca covered 195 mares in his first year at stud, according to figures from The Jockey Club. In 2020, the number dropped to 101–something that's common for second-year horses. In 2021, the horse covered only 36 mares, and this year the number was 32, at $5,000 live foal, according to Three Chimneys (The Jockey Club figures haven't been published yet).

These numbers aren't entirely out of line in the commercial marketplace, but Navarro's association with the horse undoubtedly depressed them further and more than likely took a bunch of bidders out of the ring for his first sales yearlings as well.

In August of 2021, one month before the Keeneland September sale, Navarro cut a deal with SDNY and pled guilty to one charge of misbranding and adulterating drugs and admitted in court he'd administered PEDs to Sharp Azteca among others.

That's a stain that's not easy to wipe away, but Sharp Azteca is sure making an effort to do so in his second career as a stallion.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

The post Taking Stock: Sharp as a Tack appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Taking Stock: Young Stallions Dominate Derby Points Leaders

Led by Three Chimneys's Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg}), young stallions with either first- or second-crop representatives account for 11 of the 20 leading point getters for the GI Kentucky Derby, and quite a few of these stallions, Gun Runner included, have the top 12 leading points earners for the GI Longines Kentucky Oaks as well.

First-Crop 3-year-olds

Gun Runner, whose first crop is three, has, incredibly, sired four individual Grade I winners so far, the latest of which is Zedan Racing's remarkable Taiba, who won the GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby Saturday in only his second lifetime start. A $1.7-million purchase at the Fasig-Tipton Florida Select 2-year-olds in training sale, Taiba has earned 100 Derby points, tying him for fifth place on the list with Crown Pride (Jpn) (Reach the Crown {Jpn}) and Gold Square's Cyberknife (Gun Runner), a $400,000 purchase at the Fasig-Tipton Selected Yearlings Showcase who won the Gl Arkansas Derby the weekend before. Gun Runner is also represented by Klaravich Stables's Early Voting, who lost Saturday for the first time in three starts when second by a neck to Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo) in the GII Wood Memorial S. Early Voting, who has 50 points, was a $200,000 Keeneland September yearling.

Among filles, Gun Runner has the undefeated Grade I winner Echo Zulu, last year's champion 2-year-old filly, with 130 points for the Oaks (as well as Shotgun Hottie, outside the top 12 with 41 points). A $300,000 Keeneland September yearling who races for L and N Racing and Winchell Thoroughbreds, Echo Zulu is second only to Kathleen O. with 150 points.

Echo Zulu won her season debut in the GII Fair Grounds Oaks by a nose from Hidden Connection (Connect), a Grade III winner at two from the first crop of Lane's Ends's Connect (Curlin)–also the sire of 2-year-old Grade I winner Rattle N Roll, sixth most recently in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. An $85,000 OBS June 2-year-old racing for Hidden Brook Farm and Black Type Thoroughbreds, Hidden Connection has 57 points for the Oaks, which puts her among the leading 12.

Juddmonte's late Arrogate (Unbridled's Song) hasn't dazzled like Gun Runner, but his first-crop daughter Secret Oath is one of the best 3-year-old fillies in the country. She was third last out in the Arkansas Derby to Cyberknife and prior to that had dominated fillies at Oaklawn, including a 7 1/2-length score in the GIII Honeybee S. A homebred for Briland Farm, Secret Oath has 80 points for the Oaks, but note that Yuugiri (Shackleford), who won the GIII Fantasy at Oaklawn when Secret Oath took on the boys and has 114 points for the Oaks, was a well-beaten third in the Honeybee.

Coolmore America's Cupid (Tapit) is the sire of first-crop daughter Desert Dawn, an Arizona-bred who won the GII Santa Anita Oaks Saturday by a neck from the previously undefeated Adare Manor (Uncle Mo). She has 108 points for the Oaks and is a homebred for H and E Ranch.
GIII Gotham S. winner Morello (Classic Empire) lost for the first time in four starts in the Wood Memorial after a bad start, finishing sixth, and will reportedly not head to the Derby. Nevertheless, the first-crop son of Coolmore America's Classic Empire (Pioneerof the Nile) has 50 Derby points and races for Blue Lion Thoroughbreds, Craig Taylor, and Diamond T. Racing. He was a $250,000 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-year-old.

Second-Crop 3-year-olds

Taylor Made's Not This Time (Giant's Causeway) is the sire of GII Louisiana Derby winner Epicenter, who leads all colts with 164 points for the Derby. Epicenter races for Winchell Thoroughbreds and was a $260,000 Keeneland September buy. Not This Time, who had his second top-level winner Saturday when first-crop 4-year-old filly Just One Time won the GI Madison S., is also represented by GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. winner Simplification, with 74 points. Simplification, who was third in the GI Curlin Florida Derby Saturday, races for Tami Bobo and was a $50,000 RNA at Keeneland November as a weanling. Both Epicenter and Simplification, by the way, are from Candy Ride mares–which is the reverse cross of Gun Runner, who is by Candy Ride from a Giant's Causeway mare.

Airdrie's Upstart (Flatter) has been a revelation this season. He's the sire of Jeff Drown's Zandon, a $170,000 Keeneland September yearling who won the Blue Grass Saturday and sits second on the Derby-points list with 114 behind Epicenter. Upstart is also the sire of Winngate's Kathleen O., a $275,000 OBS April 2-year-old who is undefeated in four starts and won the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks earlier this month.

Like Upstart, Darley's Nyquist (Uncle Mo) has contenders for both the Derby and Oaks with second-crop 3-year-olds. The Derby-winning stallion's son Slow Down Andy, a homebred for Reddam Racing, won the GIII Sunland Park Derby at the end of March and has 60 Derby points. Nyquist's filly Turnerloose likewise has 60 points for the Oaks. Owned by Ike and Dawn Thrash, Turnerloose won the GII Rachel Alexandra S. in February and most recently was fourth in the Fair Grounds Oaks behind Echo Zulu and Hidden Connection. The Thrashes purchased Turnerloose for $50,000 at Keeneland September.

Claiborne's resurgent Runhappy (Super Saver) is the sire of Smile Happy, with 70 points. A $185,000 purchase from the Fasig-Tipton Selected Yearlings Showcase, Smile Happy races in the colors of Lucky Seven Stable and was a Grade II winner last year. In two starts this season, Smile Happy was second in both the Blue Grass and the GII Risen Star S.

Hit It a Bomb (War Front), who stands at Spendthrift, is the sire of Magdalena Racing's Tiz the Bomb, winner of the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks S. He sold for $330,000 at the same Fasig-Tipton select sale as Smile Happy and Cyberknife and has 110 points.

The late Laoban (Uncle Mo), who started his stud career at Sequel in New York and was later transferred to WinStar in Kentucky, is the sire of Cypress Creek Equine's and Whispering Oaks Farm's Un Ojo, winner of the GII Rebel S. Un Ojo, a one-eyed gelding, was most recently off the board in the Arkansas Derby but has 54 points for the Derby.

Among the filles, Crestwood's Firing Line (Line of David) is represented by Venti Valentine, owned by NY Final Furlong Racing and Parkland Thoroughbreds. Bred by NY Final Furlong and Maspeth Stable, the homebred won the GII Demoiselle S. last year and was second Saturday in the GIII Gazelle S. Venti Valentine has 94 points for the Oaks.

The 11 colts by these sires are Taiba, Cyberknife, Early Voting, Morello, Epicenter, Simplification, Smile Happy, Slow Down Andy, Zandon, Tiz the Bomb, and Un Ojo. If you subtract the Japanese entrant–Crown Pride–that's 11 of 19, and if you add in four third-crop 3-year-olds with points in the top 20, then 15 of 19, or an astonishing 79% of the top domestic points earners for the Kentucky Derby this year, were conceived by stallions which had no runners at the time of conception.

Who are the sires of the third-crop 3-year-olds? Exported former Spendthrift stallion Race Day (Tapit) is the sire of White Abarrio, winner of the Florida Derby with 112 points, and Barber Road, second in the Arkansas Derby, with 58 points. Coolmore America's Triple Crown winner American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile) is represented by Forbidden Kingdom, who, until a last-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, was one of the leading hopes in California with 50 points. And Airdrie's Summer Front (War Front) is the sire of Summer Is Tomorrow, the second-place finisher in the G2 UAE Derby, with 40 points.

That's quite an endorsement for those that patronize or buy weanlings, yearlings, or 2-year-olds by unproven horses. And this isn't necessarily a fluke, either. A year ago, I wrote this piece, “First-Crop Success in Classics,” that examined the sires of U.S. Classic winners from 2001 to 2020 and noted that close to 50% of them were from either the first or second crops of their respective sires.
The four North American-breds by proven sires with Derby points are Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo), with 112; Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway), with 66; Messier (Empire Maker), with 40; and Zozos (Munnings), with 40.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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