Sid Fernando | Horse Racing Free Tips

Taking Stock: Pletcher on the Curlins

Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher is on fire, unveiling one promising colt or filly after another in maiden, allowance, and stakes races it seems.

Last month, Pletcher won his eighth Eclipse Award as North America's leading trainer. Not only that, but three horses trained by Pletcher also won Eclipses: Forte (Violence), champion 2-year-old colt; Nest (Curlin), champion 3-year-old filly; and Malathaat (Curlin), champion older female.

Like Pletcher, Curlin shone at the Eclipses. Aside from Nest and Malathaat, his Elite Power was named champion sprinter of 2022, giving the Hill 'n' Dale-based stallion three individual Eclipse winners in one year, the first time any stallion has had more than two in a year.

Curlin and Pletcher, in case it wasn't evident, have a special long-term relationship. On Saturday, the promising Pletcher-trained Julia Shining (Curlin), a Grade ll-winning 3-year-old sister to Malathaat owned and bred by Stonestreet, finished third in her season debut in the one-mile-and-40-yard Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs, 1 1/4 lengths behind 2-year-old champion Wonder Wheel (Into Mischief), who in turn was a neck behind 38-1 upsetter Dreaming of Snow (Jess's Dream), a granddaughter of Curlin. This Saturday, Pletcher saddles Crupi (Curlin) in the Gll Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds for Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable. Crupi is a maiden; he has placed in each of his five starts, but like Julia Shining, who won the Gll Demoiselle at 1 1/8 miles last year, he figures to improve as the year progresses and the distances increase. That's simply a function of the Curlins.

I spoke to Pletcher about this recently, and he said, “Curlin is my favorite stallion I didn't train. We're big Curlin fans.”

Pletcher has trained a number of prominent stallions throughout his career, including More Than Ready, Scat Daddy, Quality Road, Uncle Mo, Speightstown, and Munnings, among others. There isn't another modern-day trainer with such a striking record as a stallion maker. None of these stallions, however, regularly imparts stamina in the pronounced manner that Curlin does. And many of the better Curlins frequently get even more stamina in their pedigrees from their broodmare sires, because the stallion nicks so well with Seattle Slew-line mares. Both Nest and Malathaat (and Julia Shining), for instance, are from A.P. Indy mares; Crupi, who was bred by Claiborne, is from a mare by A.P. Indy's top sire son Malibu Moon, the sire of Gl Kentucky Derby winner Orb. (Skinner, a promising maiden winner from over the weekend for John Shirreffs, is also from a Malibu Moon mare and was bred by Stonestreet.) In different hands, the Curlin sons and daughters that have excelled with Pletcher may not have realized their potential. They have with Pletcher because he understands pedigrees and specifically knows how the Curlins tick.

“A lot of our training program builds toward stamina,” Pletcher said. “I don't think [the Curlins] want to be rushed off their feet. We always feel like you want to let a horse be comfortable, and if you're trying to take them out of their comfort zone early on, then you're probably not going to finish the way you want to. We would expect them, hopefully, to put themselves in a tactical position, but you wouldn't see too many of them going wire to wire. We've recognized that, for whatever reason, he fits our program well.”

Pletcher's Curlins

Curlin, a son of the Mr. Prospector stallion Smart Strike, has been represented by six Eclipse winners to date, and Pletcher has handled three of them. In addition to Nest and Malathaat, he also trained Vino Rosso, champion older male of 2019.

Though the Curlins aren't especially noted for early maturity and front-running speed, the best of them have plenty of class, are seemingly Classics contenders every year, improve with time, and are particularly adept at a mile and a sixteenth and above on dirt. That's because Curlin, a two-time Horse of the Year, was a Classic winner and a mile-and-a-quarter specialist who also stayed a mile and a half on dirt (he lost the Gl Belmont S. by a head to the Pletcher-trained A.P. Indy filly Rags to Riches, who, like Curlin, was out of a mare by Deputy Minister). In fact, it was notable and surprising that in 2022 Curlin got a champion sprinter and two others, Cody's Wish and Obligatory, that won Grade l races at seven furlongs. Both Cody's Wish, who won the Gl Forego at Saratoga, and Obligatory, first in the Gl Derby City Distaff at Churchill, won their respective sprints by closing from the back of the pack.

Bill Mott trained the trio of Elite Power, Cody's Wish, and Obligatory, and before them he'd trained Gl Coaching Club American Oaks winner Paris Lights, giving him four of Curlin's 20 top-level winners.

Only Pletcher has more, and then some. He has trained an astounding eight of the 20, or 40% Grade l winners. Aside from champions Nest, Malathaat, and Vino Rosso, Pletcher handled Belmont S. and Gl Metropolitan H. winner Palace Malice, who was from Curlin's first crop; Gl Florida Derby winner Known Agenda; the fillies Curalina, who won the Coaching Club American Oaks, and Off the Tracks, winner of the Gl Mother Goose. Keen Ice, who won the Gl Travers for Dale Romans, won the Gll Suburban at a mile and a quarter for Pletcher.

I asked Pletcher if there is a common physical thread among the Curlins.

“I think yes and no,” he said. “I do think there are some similarities in the good ones, that they're medium–at least medium–to larger size. Some of them can tend to be a little bit small, and we've found that the better ones maybe have a little more size and scope, but in terms of a particular conformational prototype, I don't know that there is. Keen Ice was a big strong horse, and so is Palace Malice. Off the Tracks was a very talented filly, but conformationally she was very, very incorrect but was able to overcome that with good mechanics. Malathaat is a scopey, long mare; Curalina was a little more refined, but she was impressive as a 2-year-old; Nest is not real big, but she's one of the best walkers I've seen. For a filly that's probably just over 15.3, she covers a lot of ground. There is an athletic component to the good ones, and in particular, I'd say Nest would stand out as an outstanding walker.”

Pletcher also noted that some of the Curlins may show talent in workouts that takes some time to translate to races.

“Known Agenda reminded me a lot of Vino Rosso in that way. If we hadn't had the setback that ultimately made them decide to retire him to stud, Known Agenda was going to be a good 4-year-old. As a younger horse, he would display more talent sometimes in the mornings than we were producing in the afternoons. But then he kind of put it together in the Florida Derby, and I thought if we'd had a chance to go on with him, we would have seen him get more consistent. I'm not saying he would have won the Breeders' Cup Classic like Vino, but he had that sort of potential.”

Mike Repole's Repole Stable, which co-owns Nest with Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Michael House, raced Vino Rosso in partnership with Vinnie and Teresa Viola's St. Elias Stable, which bred and raced Known Agenda. Both Repole and Viola are billionaire patrons of Pletcher, and they race Forte, the current Derby favorite, in partnership as well. However, they know the value of the Curlins and their trainer's ability with them, and they've loaded up on more sons and daughters of the stallion to send Pletcher's way. Last September at Keeneland, the two combined to sign for two fillies at $650,000 and $450,000, and two colts at $400,000 each. Meanwhile Repole, in partnership with Coolmore, bought a colt for $1.1 million, and in another partnership with Spendthrift bought a colt for $525,000. For his own account, Repole then purchased another five with agent Jacob West signing the tickets: three fillies for $675,000, $500,000, and $250,000; and two colts for $320,000 and $275,000.

So be prepared to see even more Curlins in Pletcher's hands this year, and not just from Repole and Viola. Stonestreet, which raced Curlin with Steve Asmussen and is the stallion's majority owner, campaigns Grade l winner Clairiere with Asmussen, but the operation sent Julia Shining to Pletcher instead of Asmussen, presumably because of Pletcher's success with her Grade l-winning dam, Dreaming of Julia (A.P. Indy), and with her champion sister Malathaat, but also for his sterling record with their stallion.

Pletcher is a maestro with the Curlins.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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Taking Stock: Mr. Prospector is the Most Influential

A few weeks ago, I was a guest on the weekly Going In Circles podcast, which is hosted by Chuck Simon, the former trainer who's also a top-notch writer at his blog, and Barry “The Sniper” Spears, an excellent handicapper and well-known figure on Twitter. Simon asked for my opinion on which stallion I'd consider to be the most influential of the past 50 years. You can listen to a nine-minute clip of the conversation here. My answer? Claiborne's iconic Mr. Prospector, of course.

The clip generated quite a bit of interest and debate on social media. Simon kept Northern Dancer out of the equation, and I made my selection on North American-based stallions whose careers had begun within the 50-year window. Mr. Prospector, a son of Raise a Native from Gold Digger, by Nashua, was born in 1970–the same year as Secretariat and Forego–and entered stud in 1975 in Florida. This timeframe eliminated not only Northern Dancer but also Raise a Native, another icon.

Mr. Prospector's stud career and substantial influence has been thoroughly documented through the years from the time he went to stud until his death in 1999 at the age of 29. All told, he sired 1,195 foals and 182 black-type winners, a ratio of 15% from foals– not starters. These days top stallions are lucky to hit 10%.

Fifty-odd years since his birth, Mr. Prospector's influence is still palpable. Five of the top 10 sires on the general sire list of 2022– Quality Road, Curlin, Gun Runner, Speightstown, and Munnings–trace in tail-male descent to him, as do four of the top 10 broodmare sires–Street Cry (Ire), Smart Strike, Distorted Humor, and Unbridled's Song.

In 2015, John Sparkman wrote a piece in Daily Racing Form titled “Mr. Prospector line has no American equal” that said in part, “…Mr. Prospector now stands at the head of the most successful classic sire line in the United States. His fifth-generation male-line descendant American Pharoah, who broke a 37-year Triple Crown drought with his Belmont Stakes victory on June 6, is the 32nd American classic winner descending in male line from Mr. Prospector dating back to when his son Conquistador Cielo won the Belmont in 1982.”

According to Sparkman, the Northern Dancer line was second to Mr. Prospector in this timeframe, with 17 Classic winners.

Since then, the Mr. Prospector line is responsible for an additional seven Classic winners in the U.S., the most recent of which was last year's Gl Preakness winner Early Voting (Gun Runner). The Northern Dancer line also has had another seven.

If the Classics are the gauge, Mr. Prospector's impact on them certainly makes him the most influential stallion of the last 50 years.

Florida to Claiborne

Mr. Prospector, who was bred by Leslie Combs ll, topped the 1971 Keeneland July sale at $220,000. He was purchased by A.I. “Butch” Savin's AISCO Stable and trained by Jimmy Croll, but he wasn't a Classic horse himself; he was sprinter, and a brilliantly fast one when he was sound. On the same day that Savin's Regal and Royal won the Gl Florida Derby, defeating Forego by three lengths, Mr. Prospector set the track record for six furlongs at Gulfstream in 1:07 4/5, winning by nine lengths in his third start.

Mr. Prospector, who was unraced at two, would go on to win seven of 14 starts, including the Gravesend and Whirlaway while contemporaries Secretariat won the Triple Crown and Forego three Horse of the Year titles.

Mr. Prospector attained his legendary status in the breeding shed, and improbably at that. Savin retired him to stud inexpensively at his AISCO Stable in Florida, far away from the best broodmares in Kentucky, but Mr. Prospector simply had what it took to overcome lesser mares. From his first crop, he got 1978 Eclipse champion 2-year-old filly It's in the Air, among others. Fappiano, a Grade l winner and top racehorse who became an influential stallion himself, was a member of Mr. Prospector's second crop. Another future successful stallion, Grade l-placed Crafty Prospector, was from Mr. Prospector's fourth crop.

Peter Brant | Sid Fernando

Peter Brant, who picked up an Eclipse award for Regal Glory (Animal Kingdom) as top turf filly or mare last week, was among the first owner-breeders to notice Mr. Prospector's prepotency and was instrumental in acquiring Mr. Prospector and moving him to Kentucky for the 1981 breeding season. I spoke last week to Brant, whose White Birch Farm is in Connecticut, of how he was able to move the stallion from AISCO to Claiborne.

“Butch Savin was in the concrete mix business in Connecticut. When he had Mr. Prospector, he lived in Connecticut and also in Boca Raton in Florida. I started to notice this horse was getting some nice horses from some cheap mares, as I was looking up stallion stats to see who to breed to, and this horse was looking very, very good, so I made it my business to meet Butch Savin. I would go down to Boca Raton, because at the time I was playing polo in Wellington. I kind of lived in Florida three months of the year while I was playing polo. So, I would go down to Boca–he had a condominium overlooking the ocean–and I would pick him up; he had a favorite Chinese restaurant and we would go there and sit and talk of the future plans of Mr. Prospector.

“I'd called Seth Hancock up and told him this horse was the real deal, and Seth was interested but the horse was in Florida and the horse was good with cheap mares but would he do well on the Kentucky circuit against those other stallions, especially the ones Seth was carrying at the time,” Brant said.

“Anyway, I'm talking to Butch and I tell him why don't we move the horse to Kentucky, and he says, 'Well, I'm not going to move. I have a farm in Florida.' And I said, 'Why don't you stay in on the horse, and we'll move him to Kentucky?' So, I'm talking to Seth and Butch Savin–it was really like arbitraging Seth and Butch Savin–and it wasn't the easiest job in the world. Finally, Butch agreed to move the horse to Kentucky and said he would stay in on the horse. I was going to keep like a third of the horse, and Seth was going to syndicate the rest of him. You know, Seth did a great job syndicating him–he had the best owners in there. And then Savin says, 'I don't want to stay in on the horse. I'm not, realistically, going to send any mares up to Kentucky.' So, he didn't stay in. And we paid real money for the horse. It was probably between $175,000 to $200,000 per share, and there were 40 shares.

“I ended up keeping a third, and as the prices went up I'd spin off some shares. You know, at one point he was standing for $300,000 no guarantee. He was a very valuable horse, and what made him a great investment for everybody involved was that the shares went to over a million dollars. And what made him even more valuable was he was one of the few stallions who was breeding to more mares back then, and so you basically got an extra season every other year. Back then, horses were breeding 40 to 48 mares, and he was breeding 64, 65 mares, up to 70. And so it was a very good deal, and he also lived a very long life and was fertile for a long time.”

And he sired some of the best colts and fillies of his era, and they in turn became sires and dams of other high-quality stock, and the cycle kept continuing.

And it keeps continuing, which is why Mr. Prospector is the most influential sire of the last 50 years in North America.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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In Historic First, Fipke’s Shirl’s Speight To Run In February S. In Japan

Charles Fipke's Grade I winner and 'TDN Rising Star' Shirl's Speight (Speightstown) will become the first foreign horse to ever run in Japan's G1 February S., Fipke's advisor Sid Fernando confirmed to the TDN Thursday afternoon. Set for Feb. 19, the race is over a mile on the dirt, and trainer Roger Attfield and Fipke are both set to travel to the Tokyo showpiece.

“He's going,” Fernando said of the 2022 GI Maker's Mark Mile hero. “He's doing well with Roger Attfield down in Florida.”

The February S. is one of only two Group 1 races alongside the Champions Cup conducted on dirt by the Japanese Racing Association (JRA), but the competition is no less fierce, as illustrated by last year's Japanese Champion Dirt Horse, Café Pharoah (American Pharoah, who earned his year-end accolade partially by setting a new stakes record of 1:33.80 in the 2022 edition, his second consecutive victory in the event.

“It's a very complex thing to get to this race, because unlike other races that are usually international races that are invitational races, this is not an invitational,” he said. “We had to nominate, get accepted, etc. Then, Mr. Fipke's got to pay for everything to go there. It's a pretty expensive proposition too.”

The magnitude of the Fipke team's February S. attempt is not lost on Fernando, who said of Fipke's vision, “[It's] really two things–he's one of the few North American owners who are actually licensed to race in Japan. That's number one. Number two, he also breeds a few mares in Japan every year. He's got a good relationship with Northern Farm and Katsumi Yoshida. He's got a runner in Japan, as well, who last year won a couple of races–Kana Tape (Jpn) (Lord Kanaloa {Jpn}) and he's an adventurer. He's a guy that is very interested in the international game. He's raced in South Africa before and bred in South Africa. He's a guy that's got horses in Australia, won races last year in Australia, races in Dubai. His entire career was built on a bunch of adventuring and discovering diamond mines. This all fits his sensibilities.

“And, on top of all of that, he'd like to also try to win a Grade 1 race on dirt with Shirl's Speight. With his Japanese contacts and everything, it's showcasing that horse over there as a potential stallion prospect, not that he plans on selling the horse or anything. For Japanese breeders, it's exposure.”

A versatile campaigner, the son of GI Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare shocker Perfect Shirl (Perfect Soul {Ire}) has not graced the racetrack since running a good second to likely Eclipse Champion Turf Male Modern Games (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) in the GI Breeders' Cup Mile at Keeneland in November. Shirl's Speight is already a graded winner on two surfaces, having won the GIII Marine S. over the Woodbine all-weather as a juvenile. The GIII Tampa Bay S. on turf went his way at four to go with his Maker's Mark heroics, and, most encouragingly, the 5-year-old did run third in the GIII Salvator Mile S. over the Monmouth main track last June.

A major feather in the Fipke camp's cap is their rider selection for the 2023 February S. None other than legendary Brazilian jockey Joao “Magic Man” Moreira, a four-time champion rider in Hong Kong, has signed on to ride the 5-year-old. Moreira booted home 76 winners from 217 starters in 2018, the year he rode predominantly in Japan.

Added Fernando, “We've booked the Magic Man, Joao Moreira to ride. He's got a [job] to ride in Australia two weeks before he goes to Japan with [Australian Champion Trainer Chris] Waller.”

Shirl's Speight's international engagements will not end in Japan either, as Fernando revealed that the 1800-metre G1 Dubai Turf on grass at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai on Mar. 25 would be next on the entire's dance card.

“The bigger plan, is that he's going to go there, then he's going to fly to Dubai for the 1800-metre Group 1 race on turf in Dubai on Dubai World Cup day,” said Fernando.

“It's a very complex logistical thing with quarantine, flights, etc.,” said Fernando. “I have to give a shout out to [Fipke's] administrative assistant Fawn Seminoff, who has really done an incredible job organizing all of the moving parts.”

Targets Set For Budding Stars

Fipke also has multiple opportunities to enjoy international action in 2023, besides his stable star. He enjoyed a winner over the Dundalk synthetic as recently as Wednesday evening when homebred Stormy Entry (Point Of Entry), a son of Fipke's GI Natalma S. bridesmaid Stormy Perfection (Tale of the Cat), won the seven-furlong nightcap. In addition, Irish listed heroine Spirit Gal (Fr) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}), who took Fipke to the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Keeneland, will be prepared for a run in the G1 French 1000 Guineas in May.

“He's got horses in Europe–he just won a race last night in fact, at Dundalk, a Point Of Entry colt,” said Fernando. “And he's got a stakes-winning filly by Invincible Spirit (Ire), Spirit Gal (Fr), that's with Andre Fabre and is being prepared for the G1 French 1000 Guineas.”

Back in 2017, Fipke homebred, eventual GI Metropolitan H. victor and sire Bee Jersey (Jersey Town) ran second to subsequent dual G1 Dubai World Cup winner Thunder Snow (Ire) (Helmet {Aus}) in the G3 UAE 2000 Guineas. Fast forward to Dec. 23, 2022 and Bee Jersey colt Shirl's Bee graduated at first asking at Meydan. Trained by American ex-pat Doug Watson, the chestnut is aiming to go one better for his sire on Feb. 10.

Said Fernando, “He's got Shirl's Bee who won his debut really impressively there and is going next in the [G3] UAE 2000 Guineas.

For Fipke, 2023 will be a year dedicated to exploring the next frontier in the Thoroughbred world beginning with an exclusive visit to Japan.

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Taking Stock: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly of 2022

Sergio Leone's 1966 masterpiece, “The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly,” was the last and best of a trilogy of Leone spaghetti westerns that upended the traditional genre.

Before Leone and other Italian directors like Sergio Corbucci set about redefining the Old West in Europe, traditional domestic westerns featured clean-cut leads like John Wayne, Alan Ladd, Gregory Peck, Gary Cooper, and Jimmy Stewart in films by directors like John Ford and Howard Hawks that clearly delineated the good from the bad and ugly. Not so Leone, who made the genre surreal and messy, and for him the good wasn't as easily distinguishable from the bad and ugly.

Clint Eastwood, Leone's star, was an anti-hero gunslinger with five-day stubble on a perpetually squinting face, a cigarillo between his lips, and a signature poncho draped over his tall frame.

When he flipped the poncho over his left shoulder, he was ready to draw the Colt Navy holstered on his thigh, and when he did, any gunfight was over in the blink of an eye. He was faster than fast–and unbelievably so.

Racing in 2022 was messy and surreal and was a Sergio Leone film in my mind, not a John Ford movie with clear-cut heroes and bad guys. Flightline was the star, playing the Eastwood role. No one was faster.

Here's the year's Good, Bad, and Ugly, boiled down in three acts.

The Good
The Good was Flightline (Tapit), wasn't it? He was good, but not so in the traditional sense for some, because he didn't race often like their racing heroes from the past. His detractors have grumbled, too, that he's not competing in 2023 because his connections are cashing out on his massive stud value. Some conspiracy theorists on social media have gone so far as to insinuate the $4.6 million share purchased by an undisclosed buyer at auction at Keeneland was engineered by the colt's ownership group to inflate his value. In reality, the share was bought fair and square by Travis Boersma, the billionaire co-founder of Dutch Bros. Coffee, with Coolmore the underbidder. In fact, Boersma has since purchased another share in Flightline.

As for how good Flightline was, the results of the recent Gl Malibu and Gll San Antonio add to the tale: Taiba (Gun Runner), beaten 8 3/4 lengths in third by Flightline in the Gl Breeders' Cup Classic, won the former by 4 1/4 lengths; and Country Grammer (Tonalist), second by 19 1/4 lengths to Flightline in the Gl Pacific Classic, won the latter by 4 1/2 lengths. At the time, the Pacific Classic impacted me in a way I haven't felt in a long time, and when Lane's End asked me to write the entry for Flightline for its annual stallion brochure, I wrote of that race in particular and said, in part:

He was a hot Santa Ana wind blowing in from the San Diego mountains that day. He not only fried the competition in the Pacific Classic but also the ability to think straight in the immediate aftermath. It was difficult to coherently put into words what was seen and felt as Flightline crossed the line. There was something unsettling about it, something that asked, “Is this real?”

Joan Didion, that great American writer from California, once said this about the Santa Ana winds: “The Pacific turned ominously glossy during a Santa Ana period, and one woke in the night troubled not only by the peacocks screaming in the olive trees but by the eerie absence of surf. The heat was surreal. The sky had a yellow cast, the kind of light sometimes called 'earthquake weather.'”

Didion's words capture the otherworldly essence and collective disbelief of what was witnessed at Del Mar. It had been, after all, only Flightline's fifth race. Previously, he'd dominated a field of Grade l winners by six lengths in the one-mile Gl Metropolitan H. at Belmont. His only other stakes outing before the Met Mile came in the seven-furlong Gl Malibu S. at Santa Anita, which he won by 11 1/2 lengths.

In the days following the Pacific Classic, as the magnitude of accomplishment settled in, journalists waxed lyrically about Flightline's performance, but the most telling verdicts came from unsentimental makers of figures and ratings: 126 from Beyer, the fastest in almost 20 years and the second-best ever; -8 1/2 from Thoro-Graph, the best in its history; -2 from Ragozin,
an indicator of highly elite class; and a ranking of 143 from the internationally respected Timeform, which places Flightline tops among American horses of all time and within range of the publication's highest-ever weighted horse, Frankel, at 147.

Flightline was clearly special.

The Bad
The handling of HISA was bad–twice over. There's no way to sugarcoat this. The bill was first passed without industry consensus when Sen. Mitch McConnell, Republican and then Majority Leader in the senate, tacked it on to the year-end spending bill in 2020, and after a part of it was found unconstitutional last year, Sen. McConnell, now Minority Leader, once again attached an amendment to it to the spending bill last month with corrective language that's supposed to address the issue the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals found objectionable, which is that government power was delegated to a private entity without adequate government supervision.

Sen. McConnell, in this role, plays the part actor Lee Van Cleef did in the Leone film, the hired gun Angel Eyes. Part of the entry for Angel Eyes in Wikipedia reads: “A ruthless… mercenary… always finishes a job for which he is paid.” Who hired–lobbied is the polite word–Sen. McConnell? Pro HISA advocates, including The Jockey Club, a mostly Republican organization. And why is this ironic and even surreal? Because many of the constitutional issues being litigated in courts around HISA are anti-Republican stances about states' rights and regulatory measures. And many of the federal justices ruling on these issues were named to the bench by Republican Presidents, whose appointments were supported by Sen. McConnell and most Republicans.

What happens if another conservative judge rules against HISA in one of several suits on the table at the moment? You already know: Sen. McConnell will be back to tack another amendment to the spending bill a year from now. He's got plenty of Democrats in the senate who will support him on this, but his own party is highly critical of him for putting forth measures that are anathema to conservatives.

Sen. McConnell and his posse should have had this right from the beginning, with industry consensus and a clear understanding that any challenges to HISA would come from McConnell's own party and be adjudicated by justices put in place by them.

The Ugly
Who will be the champion 3-year-old colt of 2022? Will it be Epicenter (Not This Time), who won one Grade l race last year, or will it be Taiba, the winner of three? I tweeted this recently from the WTC company account, @Sirewatch:

“In the matchup for Eclipse 3yo between Epicenter vs. Taiba, the winner is Ron Winchell. He owns Epicenter and is a major shareholder in Gun Runner, the sire of Taiba.”

Winchell is a leading man from a John Ford film, a John Wayne type of winner.

Taiba is owned by Amr Zedan, a Saudi businessman, and trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, both of whom are Sergio Leone characters, perhaps a composite in this case of the Eli Wallach role of Tuco, a wanted Mexican bandit in “The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.”

Things certainly got ugly for Zedan and Baffert after their Medina Spirit (Protonico) tested positive for betamethasone after the 2021 Gl Kentucky Derby, and events have snowballed from there, including the Churchill Downs ban of Baffert and the subsequent lawsuits filed by Zedan and Baffert in response. All of this translated to negative publicity and quite likely cost Medina Spirit an Eclipse Award.

The champion 3-year-old colt of 2021 was Godolphin's Essential Quality, who won two Grade l races, the same as Medina Spirit. Except Medina Spirit also defeated older horses by winning the Gl Awesome Again – something his rival didn't do – and finished ahead of Essential Quality the two times they met, in the Derby (Essential Quality was fourth) and the Breeders' Cup
Classic (Medina Spirit was second to Knicks Go and Essential Quality was third).

The resilient Zedan and Baffert are somehow back again with Taiba, but how will voters respond this time? Will they snub Zedan and Baffert again and go with Epicenter, who had a fine campaign that included a win in the prestigious Gl Travers? Or will they jettison both dirt colts and go for Godolphin's Modern Games (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}), who won two Grade l races on turf against older horses? Don't scoff, there's been some chatter about that on social media among potential voters.

Owner and handicapper (and economics professor) Marshall Gramm recently noted on Twitter the similarities of Taiba, Epicenter, and Modern Games to the trio of Snow Chief (three Grade l wins), Ferdinand (one), and Manila (three, all on turf) from 1986. Snow Chief won the Eclipse that year, but Manila, an outstanding turf horse, was the best of the three. Back then, however,
turf racing didn't have the same stature it now seems to hold with some voters.

These days it's hard to agree on anything. Consensus is elusive. The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly are seemingly interchangeable, depending on viewpoint. And facts seem to matter less than opinion. That's the chaos that Leone captured in 1966, and it's very much alive now.

Welcome to 2023.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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