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TIF: How Will Racing Pay for HISA? Grow the Business!

by Thoroughbred Idea Foundation

The creation of the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority (HISA) is the most significant development in American racing at the federal level since the passage of the Interstate Horseracing Act in 1978.

Questions now being rightly considered include how much HISA will cost and where will its funding originate from. Below, we offer some perspective on the costs. But as the greater industry determines where the funding will come from over time, racing should proactively adopt policies which seek to grow the wagering business.

The industry already has a plethora of obligations–aftercare, backstretch programs, integrity matters, jockey health and equine research, not to mention purses, the main driver for investment from owners. HISA adds to these. The best way for horse racing to afford all of its obligations is to grow the business.

Racing’s wagering business needs to evolve–appropriate pricing of bets, improving access and reducing costs to accurate data, complementing pari-mutuel betting with fixed odds options, modernizing existing bet processing and infrastructure, all while increasing transparency to the public in many areas. Increasing costs to our already fragile wagering markets, or to a declining base of horse owners, without these needed improvements is a recipe for disaster.

Any step where costs to betting are increased to help pay for HISA programs will hurt the greater racing business.

Projecting Costs

There is every reason to expect that a new level of federal bureaucracy functioning on top of individual state commissions will be expensive.

As it relates to testing, these expenses are fairly clear. For example, if the per-race spending on testing alone from the more than 5,000 races across all breeds overseen by the California Horse Racing Board were extrapolated across the entirety of U.S. Thoroughbred racing, nationwide testing alone would run approximately $20 million annually at current standards.

This is a cost already borne by individual commissions.

Factoring in improvements and upgraded requirements, it should be understood that the $20 million–just for testing–merely represents a starting point.

Administratively, what it will cost to start a federal authority from scratch is more challenging to envision. The HISA creates a layer of federal bureaucracy where one never previously existed. This isn’t necessarily good or bad, it is a reality in development with little insight on costs to this point.

HISA requires the registration of all “covered persons”–an umbrella term which, according to the language of the bill, includes “all trainers, owners, breeders, jockeys, racetracks, veterinarians, persons (legal and natural) licensed by a State racing commission and the agents, assigns, and employees of such persons and other horse support personnel who are engaged in the care, training, or racing of covered horses [basically, all active Thoroughbreds].”

Most are already licensed by existing commissions, but some are not. Will that information be shared or require completely new registrations? The exact administrative requirements are (understandably) unknown to this point, but all of this will come with costs.

The United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA), which will assist in the development of HISA, serves as a potential reference point to understand the possible administrative expenses.

According to its annual report, USADA conducted more than 14,000 tests in 2019 across various groups which include America’s Olympic and Paralympic athletes, services to the UFC or contracted services for other events, such as the Boston and New York City Marathons. Off a base of just 30,000 Thoroughbred races, down from 36,000 run in 2019, it is reasonable to expect the number of annual tests in U.S. Thoroughbred racing would be no less than five times larger than those conducted by USADA, and very likely more.

USADA’s testing costs in 2019 ran more than $13.5 million, but non-testing expenses, which includes results management, science, research and development and drug reference, education and awareness, as well as general and administrative expenses totaled an additional $9.3 million.

It would be reasonable to estimate that HISA’s costs would be similar, if not more, given a substantially increased number of tests, across a far larger base of competitors and events (races) requiring tests.

Whatever the exact costs, it will be more than in pre-HISA times.

Grow the Business

The best chance racing has of covering HISA costs is if racing finds a way to actually grow the business, turning around two decades of decline.

Grow the business. Grow the business. Grow the business.

State commissions are, for the most part, funded through fees assessed to, or withheld from, the sport’s participants. Receiving a portion of the hold from wagering takeout is one source of funding, licensing fees and starter fees are another. Some receive funding through a share of alternative gaming revenue too.

If wagering on racing continues to decline, recalling that it has dropped roughly 50% adjusted for inflation over nearly the last two decades, the ability to pay for HISA and plenty of other programs required of the industry–aftercare initiatives, jockey health, equine research, among others–would grow increasingly difficult. Takeout hikes would be a completely counterproductive measure to pay for HISA as betting churn would decline.

The path to a brighter future, where the industry’s liabilities can be covered, is wagering growth.

More wagering on racing yields a more sustainable business for all stakeholders. But yet, many of the decisions made by racing operators over the last two decades have been in opposition to growing wagering on racing. This has to change.

Whether it is the continuation of churn-killing jackpot bets, high takeout rates, an aversion from many to exploring fixed-odds options, or continuing to operate antiquated pari-mutuel bet-processing systems without modernization–these and other actions have greatly limited racing’s growth, all as the sport’s liabilities increase and its social license to operate becomes tougher to retain.

As racing and humanity emerge from a troubling calendar year, make no mistake that 2020 was a year of tremendous growth in legal sports betting. Those states doing the best with sports betting are those which have embraced online betting and competitive markets. While the overall environment for betting has never been stronger, racing’s wagering product remains stagnant.

If racing wants to succeed, and cover its growing liabilities which now include HISA, it must undertake measures to radically improve–and grow–the wagering business.

The post TIF: How Will Racing Pay for HISA? Grow the Business! appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Kentucky Value Sires for 2021–First Juveniles, Part II

This is the second part of the latest instalment in our ongoing series assessing stallion options for the new covering season, now tackling sires who have just sold their first yearlings. The first part, which appeared in Tuesday’s edition, can be read here.

Dixie Union has achieved quite a legacy as a broodmare sire and, following on from Mohaymen (Tapit), two other stallions in this group are out of his daughters.

KLIMT (Quality Road-Inventive by Dixie Union) has maintained an industrial output through his first three books at Darby Dan, entertaining 222, 187 and 172 guests, duly pegged at $10,000. That volume comes at a risk, of course, and anyone who fancied a Klimt yearling could choose from no fewer than 108 into the ring. Of these, 81 found a new home at $29,890.

Klimt at Darby Dan | EquiSport

Himself a $435,000 Gulfstream 2-year-old, you can certainly picture him landing one or two pinhook coups: he reiterated his precocity by looking the fastest youngster out west, notably as four-length winner of the GI Del Mar Futurity in 1:21.8 (94 Beyer). His sire can’t have had too many juveniles quite like that and, while Klimt himself did not last at three, he does have the genetic base for his stock to progress: his hard-knocking, graded stakes-winning third dam is a sister to Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Concern (the pair out of another Grade I winner). First things first, however—and, with such volume behind him, he surely needs to put himself in the shake-up for the freshman title.

The other who shares the same damsire is UNIFIED (Candy Ride {Arg}-Union City by Dixie Union). Lane’s End launched him at $10,000, which fee he retains after selling 62 of 83 yearlings offered at $43,390, an average magnified by the $450,000 home-run colt who topped a session at Keeneland September.

Unified has very attractive roots, his third dam being a Storm Bird half-sister to Dehere and the next two by Secretariat and Damascus. Though himself unraced at two, his mother is a sister to a Grade II-winning juvenile and Unified certainly landed running with a 99 Beyer on debut before consecutive Grade III and Grade II wins, clocking 1:47.14 in the Peter Pan. Though ultimately confined to seven starts, he missed the GI Carter H. only by a neck and he’s a lovely physical.

Though down to 68 mares in his third season, he has ample ammunition (opening books of 152 and 102) to resume momentum now. In the same, exemplary barn that has housed his sire and damsire, Unified has every chance of making the grade.

Likewise, his chum CONNECT (Curlin-Bullville Belle by Holy Bull) who started alongside at twice the fee after formally gilding a career of similar span and dash with a Grade I in the Cigar Mile. Having maintained numbers at 112 and 114 after an opening book of 165, he gets a friendly clip to $15,000 after selling 49 yearlings (of 84 into the ring) at $52,975.

Another very natural racehorse, Connect packed six wins and four six-figure Beyers into just eight starts and helped to elevate the GII Pennsylvania Derby to elite status by holding the maturing Gun Runner. While of adequate caliber, his family has a conspicuously accommodating outcross quality.

Competition among sons of Curlin is heightened by a cut from $20,000 to $12,500 for KEEN ICE (Curlin-Medomak by Awesome Again). Some such action, admittedly, was looking pretty urgent. Calumet amassed as many as 176 mares for his opening book, and 55 yearlings sales (of 70 into the ring) achieved a lower average than his fee ($15,069). Pretty disastrous, on the face of it, but to me this more realistic tag brings a truly admirable racehorse right back into play.

I’d especially recommend Keen Ice to anyone who might look to retain a filly, as he doubles down that mighty distaff influence Deputy Minister 3 x 3 and his fourth dam is the Emory Hamilton matriarch Chic Shirine (Mr. Prospector). If overstating his GI Travers S. defeat of American Pharoah risks faint praise, then he parlayed these genes into a resilience and durability—24 starts, including 15 at Grade I level, for earnings of $3.4 million—that any breeder should be eager to replicate.

There are some grassy roots in the family, too, so at his revised fee Keen Ice absolutely deserves a fresh look by flexible end-users. That big first book will give him a legitimate platform over the next couple of years to renew traffic that has meanwhile slackened to 73 and 43 mares.

Another now at a still more compelling fee is LORD NELSON (Pulpit-African Jade by Seeking The Gold). Halved to $10,000 by Spendthrift, he is definitely back on the agenda after making plenty of appeal even when opening at $25,000.

His yearlings sold in a good ratio, 37 of 46 offered, at $84,972. Remember that he was knocked out by laminitis when lined up for his debut book and he has been spared the “mass transit” service since, numbers through his first three years controlled at 127, 131 and 123.

Lord Nelson offers an interesting blend. He has all the commercial speed you could ask for, as winner of three consecutive Grade I sprints including the Bing Crosby in 1:07.65, the fastest six furlongs ever clocked electronically at Del Mar. Though he only achieved his peak form at four, that was partly down to experimentation in stretching his speed and he was actually a seven-length stakes winner at two. But he also has a most interesting pedigree: very fast, plainly, for a grandson of A.P. Indy, he evidently kindles a lot of speed from the 3×3 duplication of Mr. Prospector (as Pulpit’s damsire and as grandsire of his own dam). Yet the bottom line balances that with a classy Argentinian family, with all that means in terms of versatility and the robustness we saw in Lord Nelson’s recuperation.

Though himself a speedball, Lord Nelson’s build also suggests that he may be able to draw out some of the stretch latent in his pedigree. We have become accustomed to premium newcomers at Spendthrift, since this guy first arrived, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he turned out to have as much influence as any.

AMERICAN FREEDOM (Pulpit-Gottcha Last by Pleasant Tap) comes from the final crop of the same sire of sires and, as a $500,000 yearling, must have been just about the prettiest. Launched at $10,000 by Airdrie, he has every chance to build fresh momentum from an opening book of 152 mares (if on the customary slide since, to 96 and 54).

That’s a tribute to his physique though, albeit as many as 82 yearlings into the ring gave purchasers ample choice: 60 sales averaged $27,266. More important, perhaps, is the fact that his owners and Airdrie have fired up his engine with 133 mares from their quality herds. Interestingly, moreover the drums seem to be beating quite loudly among 2-year-old consignors.

Now that he’s down to $6,000, American Freedom might prove a timely gamble. After all, he claimed the scalps of Gun Runner plus all three Classic winners in his crop, and got closest of Arrogate’s pursuers in the GI Travers. And a stakes-winning Pleasant Tap mare can only bring in the good stuff, as she had already shown in producing MGSW and Grade I runner-up Gottcha Gold (Coronado’s Quest).

There’s a lot to like about MIDNIGHT STORM (Pioneerof the Nile-My Tina, by Bertrando), down to $7,500 at TaylorMade from an opening $12,500. He offers a mixture of the traditional assets we need to preserve—he won Grade II races four years running in the course of a 10-for-27 career, banking $1.78 million—with the versatility that should be at an increasing premium as the turf/synthetics program expands. He registered multiple triple-digit Beyers on both dirt and turf, and sealed his Grade I by wiring the Shoemaker Mile field, holding off subsequent Breeders’ Cup winner Tourist (Tiznow) in 1:33.55.

Books of 119, 88 and 69 provide a solid enough base and likewise his sales debut: 36 of 48 yearlings sold at $39,856. It’s a fashionable sire-line—and remember that his lamented sire was also versatile, in terms of surface—but there’s no denying that the family adds a genetic dimension to his overall air of flexibility.

Turf was an option never explored by GORMLEY (Malibu Moon-Race To Urga by Bernstein) but it’s certainly something to keep in mind for his stock. His second dam was Classic-placed in Europe and his fourth is champion turf mare Estrapade, while his own sire was out of a top-class French juvenile.

Not that there appeared to be any particular need to leave the main track with a horse who won Grade Is at both two (ended Klimt’s unbeaten spree in the Frontrunner S.) and three (beat Battle Of Midway (Smart Strike) in the Santa Anita Derby). Unfortunately he soon derailed but Spendthrift herded up the customary numbers for a first book of 180, ample to put him in the conversation for the freshmen’s championship—something to keep in mind, now that he is down to $5,000 from an opening $10,000.

Though there was plenty of choice at the yearling sales, he found customers for an excellent ratio (59 of 73 offered) at $37,544. Subsequent books of 127 and 72 suffice to keep him in the game if he can get one or two early headliners, something he is perfectly entitled to do with the depth of Classic influences through his pedigree. Virtually a bet to nothing at his new fee.

Speaking of turf, reverse shuttler ASTERN (Medaglia d’Oro-Essaouira {Aus} by Exceed And Excel {Aus}) is down again to $7,500 from $10,000, after being cut last year from an opening $15,000 at Darley. Albeit he has somewhat puzzled the local market to this point, with 23 of 38 yearlings sold at $35,617, now he gets the chance to show whether they can actually run.

He’s certainly been priced to engage the attention of breeders lacking the regard of their Australian counterparts for a horse who—trading in speed, as an interesting instance of the way this cosmopolitan sire-line obeys the predilections of each local industry—matched the Group 1 success of his half-sister Alizee (Aus) (Sepoy {Aus}), not to mention of their third and fourth dams.

He’s half a year deeper into his career than his Kentucky rivals, with a handful of runners already in his native land. Down there a lot of people would be pretty offended, on Astern’s behalf, by his relative valuation in Kentucky. But we’re about to find out which hemisphere has him right, and books of 116, 90 and 90 are sufficient to permit a rising tide for any breeder enterprising or audacious enough to take a chance on him now.

A Southern Hemisphere import that was able to parade his wares on American tracks is Calumet’s BAL A BALI (Brz) (Put It Back—In My Side {Brz} by Clackson {Brz}). Horse Of The Year in Brazil, he recovered from laminitis after his migration to win a couple of Grade Is on U.S. grass. He proved much too exotic a proposition for the domestic yearling market, 34 of 39 selling at just $7,302, but he does have early numbers behind him (books of 125 and 74 before falling right off to 22 last spring) and also has dirt strains to draw upon in his outcross pedigree. It’s obviously over to him, but he is now realistically priced at $5,000 (started at $15,000) and would hardly represent the first transfusion of South American blood to invigorate the gene pool here.

In contrast the same farm hosts a couple of young stallions trading primarily on very familiar pedigrees. The third dam of MR. Z (Malibu Moon-Stormy Bear, by Storm Cat), indeed, is a Ribot (GB) half-sister to Mr. Prospector himself (who also figures on the page as damsire of Malibu Moon). His own mother is a half-sister to the prolific Canadian turf champion Chief Bearhart (Chief’s Crown) and, while Mr. Z only won twice, he stood up well to aggressive campaigning to become a millionaire. A handful of his yearlings sold mostly for no money but he has now been halved to $2,500 so maybe his first book of 61, more than he’s managed in the two seasons since, can give him a foothold.

Barnmate WAR CORRESPONDENT (War Front-Tempo West, by Rahy) also has a noble pedigree, as a brother to Declaration of War out of a half-sister to Union Rags, and he won a couple of graded stakes on turf. The half-dozen yearlings he sold, of nine offered, averaged $18,576 and he’s now $5,000 from an opening $7,500, again with small numbers behind him.

Though ultimately rescued more or less from oblivion, for a roll of the dice at stud, WILDCAT RED (D’wildcat-Racene, by Miner’s Mark) was a legitimate dasher in his time, as a dual graded stakes winner who was beaten only a neck by Constitution (Tapit) in the GI Florida Derby. He has only covered small books at Buck Pond Farm, but that won’t necessarily stop him outlasting one or two who started with a higher profile. Of just three yearlings sold, after all, one made $180,000 to become the top colt at the OBS Selected Yearling Sale, some yield on a $7,500 fee. Bravo, Wildcat!

That’s the beauty, when we reach this stage of the game. It’s now up to their runners, and nobody can know what will happen once the gates open.

CHRIS McGRATH’S VALUE PODIUM

Gold: Mastery ($25,000 Claiborne)

Always looked the goods and sales debut did nothing to alter that

Silver: Lord Nelson ($10,000 Spendthrift)

What a generous cut for a very fast horse with stretchy genes

Bronze: Gormley ($5,000 Spendthrift)

Bumper first book could give him freshman momentum

The post Kentucky Value Sires for 2021–First Juveniles, Part II appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Stallion-Making Potential For Improbable and Promises Fulfilled

When considering stallion potential, brilliance and precocity are rarely left out of the equation. But a unique find emerges when a headlining juvenile can carry out his talent as a sophomore and even as an older horse before beginning his stud career.

Two of WinStar Farm’s new recruits for 2021, Improbable (City Zip) and Promises Fulfilled (Shackleford), showed brilliance early on in their careers as flashy debut winners before each went on to become stakes winners at three and four.

We spoke with WinStar’s David Hanley on the pair of Grade I-winning additions.

Improbable (City Zip), $40,000

“The thing that was so impressive about this horse was his soundness,” Hanley said of four-time Grade I winner and Eclipse candidate Improbable. “From when he went to Bob Baffert as a 2-year-old, he never missed a day, never had an issue. He was so consistent. Every week you asked how he worked and Bob’s response was, ‘awesome.'”

In his 15 career starts over three years, Improbable ran in the money in all but four.

“I think that soundness is really important for his future as a sire because in the world we live in today, soundness is such a factor,” Hanley said. “This horse with his mechanics, the way he moved and how sound he was, if he passes that on to his progeny, it gives him a great shot to have a lot of runners.”

A $200,000 Keeneland September purchase, Improbable was a debut winner for the same owner-trainer connections that campaigned another speedy chestnut in Triple Crown winner Justify (Scat Daddy). He followed up with a 7 1/4-length victory in the Street Sense S. on the 2018 Breeders’ Cup undercard while earning a ‘TDN Rising Star’ nod.

He wrapped up his 2-year-old season with a win in the GI Los Alamitos Futurity, defeating eventual Grade I-winning stablemate Mucho Gusto (Mucho Macho Man) by five lengths.

“He ran that race in the fastest time of the previous 10 years,” Hanley noted. “He really was a top-class 2-year-old and always showed that. From when we broke him in the spring, he just had it together.”

From there, Improbable ran second in the GII Rebel S. and again in the GI Arkansas Derby behind Omaha Beach (War Front).

He finished fourth in the GI Kentucky Derby, and although he registered a victory in the Shared Belief S. at Del Mar’s summer meet, the chestnut couldn’t land a graded stakes win in the later half of his 3-year-old year.

“I think after going through the Derby, he got a little bit frazzled and kind of lost his way a bit through the rest of his 3-year-old season,” Hanley admitted. “He got very fired up in the gate and was running his races very hard on the bridle and not settling. But then as a 4-year-old when he got back to Bob in the spring, suddenly he was working a bit more relaxed. He was working unbelievably and showed it on the racetrack when he won three straight Grade I races with 105, 106 and 108 Beyers.”

Hanley notes Improbable’s 4 1/2-length win over barnmate and champion Maximum Security (New Year’s Day) in the GI Awesome Again S. as his strongest race of the Grade I trio.

“When Drayden Van Dyke took hold of him and he got on the bridle and let him run, he just exploded. I think that was a really super impressive performance.”

Equally as memorable was his two-length victory in last summer’s GI Whitney S.

“He was always in control of that race,” Hanley said. “He traveled easily just off the pace and when Irad [Ortiz] took the lead, he just drove off from there.”

While Improbable ran second behind Authentic (Into Mischief) in his final career start in the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic, he earned a 108 Beyer and a 2 Ragozin, the fastest of the race, while traveling over six lengths farther than the winner.

Improbable retired with earnings of over $2.7 million as the leading earner for his sire City Zip, who passed away when Improbable was a yearling.

“City Zip was a wonderful sire,” Hanley said. “He sired 72 stakes winners, six champions, and was a wonderful racehorse himself. So I think that’s a sire line that’s going to produce some good stallions.”

Improbable is a son of the winning A.P. Indy mare Rare Event, whose stakes-winning dam Our Rite of Spring (Stavinsky) is a half-sister to Grade I winner and sire Hard Spun (Danzig).

“City Zip was by Carson City, who was out of a Blushing Groom mare. Interestingly, Our Rite of Spring is by Stravinsky, who is also out of a Blushing Groom mare. So I think that’s huge sire-making pedigree potential,” Hanley said.

With other top sires in Awesome Again, Giant’s Causeway and Candy Ride (Arg) hailing from the Blushing Groom line on their damside, Hanley said he believes with Blushing Groom on both Improbable’s top and bottom side, his pedigree shows a unqiue potential.

“He’s also out of a really deep Darby Dan family,” he added. “He comes from one of their great foundation mares Banquet Bell, who herself was the dam of a Kentucky Derby and Belmont S. winner and a champion.”

Already booked to 160 mares for this season, Improbable has been popular with the breeders.

“He is what I would consider a medium-sized horse,” Hanley said. “He’s tremendously well made. He’s got great length from his hip to his hock and great leverage behind. He really hits the ground, as Drayden Van Dyke said, ‘like a cloud.'”

From the beginning, Hanley says, Improbable’s most noticeable quality was his exceptional movement–an asset that has proven to be useful in attracting a strong book of mares for his initial season at stud.

“From the first few times we worked him on the farm as a

2-year-old, he would breeze a quarter and then just gallop around the track like there was no end to him,” Hanley said. “He had great motion and everything came easy to him. As Bob Baffert said, he’s one of the prettiest-moving horses you could ever see and I think that’s something that’s going to stand him in good stead if he can produce that in his foals.”

Promises Fulfilled (Shackleford), $10,000

“I think his trademark was how genuine he was,” Hanley said of five-time graded stakes winner Promises Fulfilled. “He would go as fast as he could and when the other horses would come to him, he would bear down and give everything he had. He would drop down and stick his head out and give his all every time.”

Recruited and trained by Dale Romans for Robert Baron, Promises Fulfilled was a four-length debut winner at two before taking an allowance at Keeneland and running third in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. to wrap up his juvenile season.

He continued on the Derby trail at three with a victory in the GII Fountain of Youth S., breaking first and never giving up the lead to defeat Strike Power (Speightstown) and champion Good Magic (Curlin) by 2 1/4 lengths.

The speedy chestnut broke on top in his next two starts, clocking a :45.77 half mile going head-to-head with Justify (Scat Daddy) in the GI Kentucky Derby, but failed to stay on to finish in the money.

He realized his full potential after turning back in distance in the later half of his 3-year-old season with consecutive wins in the GIII Amsterdam S., GI H. Allen Jerkens S. and GII Phoenix S.

“It was quite an amazing performance to go through what he did in the spring trying to stretch out and then come back and be as competitive as he was,” Hanley said. “That was the period of time when we started to think he was a really serious horse.”

A win the following summer in the GII John Nerud S. with a career-high 108 Beyer sealed the deal, and WinStar bought in on the millionaire earner soon after.

“He was very fast out of the gates, always on pace and really let himself down in his races to finish up strong,” Hanley said. “He ran six sub-:44.4 times in graded races.”

After a layoff following his 4-year-old season, an issue days before his next start kept Promises Fulfilled from racing on at five in 2020.

“It was kind of unfortunate because he was a year from running when he went to stud, so people are quick to forget just how good of a 3-year-old he was,” Hanley said. “But we’re really excited about him because we think he was a horse with a lot of speed and ability.”

Promises Fulfilled retired with earnings of nearly $1.5 million and ran in the money in 10 of his 17 career starts.

“One thing that I think marks this horse’s character is that fact that he was able to go through the Kentucky Derby preps, run in the Kentucky Derby and then come back and win a Grade I going seven furlongs. It speaks to the character and quality of horse that he was.”

Hanley noted that breeders have been surprised that the sprinter’s physical reflects more of a two-turn type mold.

“He’s quite a big horse, with a lot of leg under him and a lot of stretch to him,” he said. “So it’s interesting that he was as fast as he was. We’re really excited to see what kind of foals he’ll produce because with his pedigree, speed and physique, he’s capable of getting two-turn horses that have some speed.”

The son of Shackleford is out of the Marquetry mare Marquee Delivery, who herself is Grade III placed but is also the dam of three additional black-type horses. Promises Fulfilled’s half-sister Marquee Miss (Cowboy Cal) was a five-time stakes winner.

“Shackleford was by Forestry (Storm Cat), so it’s a speed sire line,” Hanley said. “Shackleford himself was out of the mare Oatsee, who is by Unbridled. So you can see where Shackleford got his leg and size, and where Promises Fulfilled got it as well.”

He continued, “I think he’ll put a bit of size and stretch into his mares. He could fit anything. He was such a fast horse, and he did win going a mile and a sixteenth and looks like a two-turn horse, so anything is possible.”

The post Stallion-Making Potential For Improbable and Promises Fulfilled appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Notable US-Bred Runners in Japan: Tuesday, Jan. 5, 2021

In this continuing series, we take a look ahead at US-bred and/or conceived runners entered for the upcoming weekend at the tracks on the Japan Racing Association circuit, with a focus on pedigree and/or performance in the sales ring. Here are the horses of interest for the first meeting of the new year to be held Tuesday at Nakayama Racecourse:

Tuesday, January 5, 2021
2nd-NKY, ¥9,680,000 ($94k), Maiden, 3yo, 1800m
AMERICAN YELL (c, 3, Tapit–Sindy With An S, by Broken Vow), a $700K Keeneland September purchase by owner Katsumi Yoshizawa, is a full-brother to SW & GSP My Miss Tapit and the GSP duo of I’ll Wrap It Up and Rattataptap, and is the 19-10 favorite to improve off a strong runner-up effort over this course and distance when last seen Dec. 13 (video, gate 12). Yoshizawa, who campaigns 2019 Triple Crown participant Master Fencer (Jpn) (Just A Way {Jpn}), has been represented by four Tapit winners in Japan, including the listed-placed American Seed. B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd (KY)

3rd-NKY, ¥11,400,000 ($110k), Newcomers, 3yo, 1800m
WELL SNIPER (f, 3, Violence–Down the Well {Ire}, by Mujadil) is the latest to make the races for her dam, whose three winners from as many to hit the track include SW Aqua Frio (Uncle Mo) and Karak (Karakontie {Jpn}), the latter of which broke her maiden at first asking sprinting on turf at Belmont before winning the 2019 Tyro S. on the grass and the 2020 Cincinnati Trophy on the Polytrack.. Well Sniper was bought back on a bid of $37K at KEENOV in 2018 and fetched $35K at KEEJAN a couple of months later. B-Parrish Hill Farm & Amanda Roach Cole (KY)

8th-NKY, ¥21,000,000 ($204k), Allowance, 4yo/up, 1200m
SUI (f, 4, Candy Ride {Arg}–Eltimaas, by Ghostzapper), the half-sister to champion and MGISW Drefong (Gio Ponti), doubled her win tally when taking out an Oct. 3 allowance over track and trip first off a six-month absence before finishing down the field in her last visit to the post Oct. 25. A $300K KEESEP yearling turned $675K OBS March breezer, Sui is out of a half-sister to champion Action This Day (Kris S.). B-Machmer Hall, Carrie & Craig Brogden (KY)

10th-NKY, Junior Cup-Listed, ¥38,370,000 ($372k), 3yo, 1600mT
ASCALON (c, 3, Speightstown–Coco As In Chanel, by Awesome Again) validated 4-5 favoritism when breaking his maiden at first asking going 1200 meters at Sapporo Aug. 22 (see below, gate 6), but was well-beaten in his first try against winners three weeks later and resumes here. The stakes-winning Coco As In Chanel was purchased by SF Bloodstock and Newgate Farm for $150K in foal to Violence at KEENOV in 2018 and produced a filly by Newgate’s Russian Revolution (Aus) in 2020. B-Heider Family Stable (KY)

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