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The TDN Derby Top 12 for Jan. 12

Next-race plans are starting to solidify for some of the contenders among the Top 12, including a possible No. 1 vs. No. 4 matchup at Oaklawn in February. Farther down the list, Nos. 5 and 9 will clash this Saturday in the GIII Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds.

1) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit—Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GISW, 3-3-0-0, $1,335,144.
Last Start: 1st GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments Include: 1st GI Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, ‘TDN Rising Star’
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 30.

The connections of 3-for-3 ‘TDN Rising Star’ Essential Quality are mapping out a campaign for the presumptive divisional champ that could end up with the high-energy gray prepping in the GII Louisiana Derby prior to taking aim at the GI Kentucky Derby. But the first race of this Tapit colt’s sophomore season is still a moving target. After winning the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, “we didn’t give him time off but we backed off on him and he seems to have responded well,” trainer Brad Cox said. “He was really good [in his early January training] and we just need to keep him that way until the middle of February.” Cox said the nine-furlong GII Risen Star S. Feb. 13 at Fair Grounds is “on the table,” as is the 1 1/16 miles GIII Southwest S. Feb. 15 at Oaklawn. “The one thing about the Fair Grounds race is it’s a lot more [Derby qualifying] points, so that makes it a little more attractive. But the distance is the question; do we want to go a mile and an eighth off not having a race in three months?” Cox added that even if the Godolphin homebred does ship from New Orleans to race at Hot Springs, “I’m 99% sure that he would go back to Fair Grounds, and the Louisiana Derby would be in play after that.”

2) LIKEABLE (c, Frosted–Dashing Debby, by Medaglia d’Oro)
O-Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable & Stonestreet Stables LLC. B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, LLC (KY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 yrl ’19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-1-1-0, $49,050.
Last Start: 13th GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

Likeable, a $350,000 KEESEP colt, owns a dazzling 8 1/2-length MSW score at Belmont last September sandwiched by a much-better-than-it-looks runner-up debut at Saratoga and a “too fast to last” effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. If trainer Todd Pletcher can hone this colt’s sharp, natural gate speed into a more efficient version of what we saw from Likeable at age two, look out. Dam Dashing Debby (Medaglia d’Oro) won her debut sprinting by 10 1/4 lengths in a Calder stake back in 2009 and was acquired shortly thereafter by Stonestreet Stables, right on the heels of another Medaglia d’Oro filly acquired by Stonestreet–eventual champ Rachel Alexandra. Since then, Dashing Debby has produced two black-type winners–one sprinting on dirt and the other around two turns on grass–plus a yearling colt by Speightstown who hammered for $800,000 at the 2020 KEESEP sale. Likeable’s MGISW sire Frosted figures to add depth and bottom to the pedigree equation, and this colt is now breezing up to five furlongs at Palm Beach Downs in prep for his sophomore unveiling.

3) PRIME FACTOR (c, Quality Road–Haylie Brae, by Bernardini)
O-CHC Inc. & WinStar Farm LLC. B-Two Hearts Farm LLC (KY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $900,000 yrl ’19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $24,000.
Accomplishments: ‘TDN Rising Star’
Last Start: 1st Msw, GP, Dec. 12
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

The most authoritative maiden win among the Top 12? That would belong to Prime Factor, a $900,000 KEESEP Quality Road colt who ran roughshod over what looked like a pretty decent crew Dec. 12 at Gulfstream, earning a ‘TDN Rising Star’ distinction. This Todd Pletcher trainee widened under wraps to bowl home by 8 3/4 lengths in a 1:10.38 clocking (85 Beyer) that went .08 seconds faster than the only other six-furlong race on the card, the GIII Sugar Swirl S. for older female sprinters. The fourth-place finisher from that race, Broadway (Quality Road), a $500,000 FTSAUG buy, won a Tampa MSW route race this past Friday at 4-5 odds, while the second- and third-place runners both came back to run third in their respective races Saturday at Gulfstream. Longer distances appear to be Prime Factor’s sweet spot based on his pedigree. He’s out of a Bernardini mare, and second dam Dance Swiftly is a full-sister to Canadian Horse of the Year and U.S. Eclipse Award winner Dance Smartly, winner of the 1991 GI Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

4) JACKIE’S WARRIOR (c, Maclean’s Music—Unicorn Girl, by A. P. Five Hundred)
O-J Kirk & Judy Robison. B-J & J Stables (KY). T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $95,000 yrl ’19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $502,564.
Last Start: 4th GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments: 1st GII Saratoga Special, 1st GI Runhappy Hopeful S., 1st GI Champagne S.
Next Start: Possible for GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 15
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 12.

With blowout speed and an aura of being in a different league than his overmatched foes, Jackie’s Warrior dominated the division last summer through early autumn. This $95,000 KEESEP Maclean’s Music colt appeared primed to pounce in the Breeders’ Cup, yet even though he carved out a no-excuse stalking trip behind the Juvenile’s fastest opening quarter since 2014 and its fastest half-mile split since 2003 and got first run at the wilting leaders a quarter mile from the short-stretch finish, “Jackie” couldn’t sustain his bid in deep stretch. He’s now two breezes into his return, but even though he’s based at Fair Grounds, trainer Steve Asmussen told the Blood-Horse last week that the Oaklawn preps might be this colt’s path to Louisville, based on the lucrative purses, qualifying points, and “pace being as effective as it is at Oaklawn.” The connections of No. 1-ranked Essential Quality are also considering the Feb. 15 Southwest S. for that colt’s 2021 debut, potentially setting up an early season showdown of two of the division’s heaviest hitters.

5) PROXY (c, Tapit–Panty Raid, by Include)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Michael Stidham. Lifetime Record: 3-2-1-0, $67,700.
Last Start: 1st Alw, FG, Dec. 19
Next Start: GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

Proxy should be a pace component in Saturday’s GIII Lecomte S., and this Tapit homebred for Godolphin has the unique advantage of already having won twice around two turns at this Fair Grounds meet. Even though his Dec. 19 N2L allowance win came only against three other rivals and earned a so-so 76 Beyer, Proxy was tag-team pressured by every horse in the race at some point and appeared emboldened when mixing it up in close quarters in his stretch fight. Jockey Angel Suarez recently suffered a broken femur, so he’s off Proxy in favor of Mitchell Murrill, whose only lifetime graded stakes victory was at this distance over this track. Proxy will also be going back off Lasix (he raced on Lasix for both of his Fair Grounds wins, but not in his runner-up Monmouth debut in October, in which he was beaten only by a neck). “He’s like a big, immature kid who is still learning with racing,” trainer Michael Stidham said. “Last time when he won, he was a little green about switching leads coming down the lane, but once he leveled off, he drew away at the end, so we were pleased with that.”

6) LIFE IS GOOD (c, Into Mischief– Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor)
O-CHC Inc & WinStar Farm LLC. B-Gary & Mary West Stable (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $525,000 yrl ’19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $94,200.
Last Start: 1st GIII Sham S., Jan. 2, Santa Anita
Accomplishments: ‘TDN Rising Star’
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

‘TDN Rising Star’ Life Is Good won the Jan. 2 GII Sham S. in wire-to-wire fashion, ticking the two-turn box on his progression checklist. This $525,000 KEESEP colt by Into Mischief earned a 101 Beyer for clocking a mile in 1:36.63, pulsing around the track largely unopposed though quarter-mile splits of :23.56, :23.11, :23.99 and :25.97. The 1-5 fave broke inward at the start and bumped mildly with a rival, then cleared the field from the outermost five hole while giving up four paths of real estate on the turn, bounding along by his lonesome onto the backstretch. Life Is Good remained hand-ridden until deep stretch when 9-1 stablemate Medina Spirit (Protonico) closed the gap while under a vigorous drive, and Life Is Good drifted out while asked for a more by Mike Smith, who showed (but did not utilize) the whip. “I always tell Mike to try and save something,” Baffert said post-race. “Life Is Good wasn’t as tired as I thought he could have been. He needs to learn to relax a little bit better, but he will.” Look for him in about two months, most likely in the Mar. 6 GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita.

7) SPEAKER’S CORNER (c, Street Sense–Tyburn Brook, by Bernardini)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-William Mott. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-1, $43,290.
Last Start: 1st Mdn, Belmont, Oct. 11
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

Speaker’s Corner, a Godolphin homebred by Street Sense out of a Bernardini mare (same cross as Godolphin’s highly-rated Maxfield) competed in two of the stronger MSWs at Saratoga and Belmont last season. This colt’s debut on closing day at the Spa was a green third, but both Speaker’s Corner and the runner-up came back to win. And this colt’s maiden-breaking tally despite minor trip trouble over seven furlongs at Belmont also has the makings of a key race, featuring sharp splits and a reeling in of a next-out winner–Caddo River (Hard Spun)–who earned ‘TDN Rising Star’ status upon his own graduation (the eighth-place finisher from that MSW also came back to win). With a sire who won the 2007 Derby and a second dam who scored in the 2006 GI Breeders’ Cup Distaff, the colt’s pedigree has a longer-the-better-slant.

8) HIGHLY MOTIVATED (c, Into Mischief–Strong Incentive, by Warrior’s Reward)
O/B-Klaravich Stables, Inc (KY). T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $240,000 wlg ’18 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-2-1-0, $124,050.
Last Start: 1st Nyquist S., KEE, Nov. 6
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

Every year there’s an undercard 2-year-old winner from Breeders’ Cup weekend whose buzz carries over, and this season Highly Motivated qualifies as that colt. This Into Mischief bay won the Nyquist S. to run his record to 2-for-3 (all sprints), and three rivals who finished behind him have since come back to win. Klaravich Stable bred Highly Motivated after racing his Chad Brown-trained dam, the seven-furlong black-type stakes winner Strong Incentive. But this colt went through the auction ring for $240,000 at KEENOV because Klaravich was buying out a partner who co-owned the weanling. Authentic’s decisive wins in the Derby and GI Breeders’ Cup Classic last season certainly helped to answer questions about the ability for Into Mischief’s progeny to carry speed up to 10 furlongs. But this colt’s dam-sire, Warrior’s Reward, made his mark as a sprinter, registering his lone stakes win at seven furlongs in the 2010 GI Carter H.

9) MANDALOUN (c, Into Mischief–Brooch, by Empire Maker)
O/B-Juddmonte Farms Inc. (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $91,252.
Last Start: 1st Alw, CD, Nov. 28
Accomplishments: ‘TDN Rising Star’
Next Start: GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

‘TDN Rising Star’ Mandaloun will start favored in Saturday’s Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds. That will be the route debut for this Juddmonte homebred by Into Mischief out of an Empire Maker mare. “We’ve always felt he was cut out to be a two-turn horse based on his physical makeup and how he trains,” trainer Brad Cox said. “It shows how much talent he’s got to be able to win his first two races at sprint distances, and now we’re going to do what we’ve thought he’s wanted to do all along, and that’s go long.” Mandaloun drew post 10 with no shortage of speed to his inside, which could end up being a tactical advantage if he seeks a stalking trip like in his previous two wins. Mandaloun needed (and responded to) a rousing ride from the five-sixteenths pole home in his 82-Beyer Churchill allowance score.

10) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 3-1-2-0, $76,092.
Last Start: 1st Msw, CD, Nov. 15
Accomplishments: ‘TDN Rising Star’
Next Start: Smarty Jones S., OP, Jan. 22
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

Cox confirmed Thursday that ‘TDN Rising Star’ Caddo River will make his debut at two turns in Oaklawn’s Smarty Jones S., the track’s Jan. 22 opening-day feature. This Hard Spun colt demonstrated ability to withstand serious pace pressure while forcing the issue on or near the lead against top-notch maiden fields at Saratoga and Belmont prior to punching through in a Churchill MSW that he commandeered by 9 1/2 lengths. Even though Caddo River has already won at the eight-furlong distance of the Smarty Jones, he’ll have to adapt from the one-turn mile configuration that he relished at Churchill to a short-stretch finish around two bends at Oaklawn, where mile races start and end at the sixteenth pole. Well-bet, wire-to-wire horses have won each of the last three editions of the Smarty Jones–but none of them went on to make an impact on the Derby trail. Caddo River’s speed should stand him in good stead at Oaklawn. But he’s a rangy, leggy colt, and short-stretch route races are often won by horses built more like compact cruisers (taller, lankier striders don’t have that extra sixteenth in the straight to fully uncoil).

11) KEEPMEINMIND (c, Laoban—Inclination, by Victory Gallop)
O-Cypress Creek LLC & Arnold Bennewith. B-Southern Equine Stables, LLC (KY). T-Robertino Diodoro. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 4-1-2-1, $394,320.
Last Start: 1st GII Kentucky Jockey Club S.
Accomplishments: 2nd GI Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, 3rd GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Next Start: Possible for GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 15
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 18.

Keepmeinmind worked a half-mile in :50.20 Wednesday at Oaklawn (39/94) under regular rider David Cohen, his first breeze since rallying from last to win the GII Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes as a maiden Nov. 28. “Very easy half, with a nice long gallop out,” Cohen said post-work. “He seemed to have matured since his last race.” Breaking a maiden in a stakes must run in the family: His sire, Laoban, wired the 2016 GII Jim Dandy S. at 27-1 odds for his only career win. Prior to his first career victory, Keepmeinmind ran second then third behind No. 1-ranked Essential Quality in the GI Breeders’ Futurity S. and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, beaten only 5 1/4 combined lengths. You’ve heard that stat about the 36 winners of the Juvenile scoring in only two Kentucky Derbies? Second- and third-place Juvenile horses don’t fare any better. Those 72 placings have accounted for only one Derby win, with Spend A Buck (third in the inaugural Juvenile back in 1984) the lone exception.

12) KING FURY (c, Curlin–Taris, by Flatter)
O-Fern Circle Stables & Three Chimneys Farm, LLC. B-Heider Family Stables LLC (Ky). T-Ken McPeek. Sales history: $950,000 yrl ’19 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: SW, 5-2-0-0, $142,739.
Last Start: 5th GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., CD, Nov. 28
Accomplishments: 1st Street Sense S.
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

With a foaling date of Jan. 12, King Fury is the only member of the Top 12 to reach his actual third birthdate. This $950,000 FTSAUG yearling by Curlin is a smooth mover with an ample (five races at 1 1/16 miles) foundation of two-turn experience. His form, on paper at least, lost a bit of shine with off-the-board finishes in the Juvenile and Kentucky Jockey Club S. But he had minor trip trouble when wheeling back into the Breeders’ Cup on just 12 days between starts and his blinkers-on experiment as a frontrunner under the lights Nov. 28 might have been a tactical aberration. Still plenty of upside here, and a 2-for-3 record at Churchill won’t hurt as the first Saturday in May comes more clearly into focus.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Brooklyn Strong (Wicked Strong): This 5,000 OBSAPR gelding upset the GII Remsen S. over nine furlongs and will aim for repeat at same distance in the Feb 6 GIII Withers S.

Capo Kane (Street Sense): Speed in hand to top of stretch then responded when roused (although a touch green) in his 84-Beyer Jerome S. score. Now aims for Withers S.

Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow): Half to 2019 sprint champ Mitole ($17,000 FTKFEB; $110,000 FTKOCT) pointed toward GIII Lewis S. Jan. 30 off 94-1 second behind Essential Quality in the Juvenile.

Manor House (Upstart): Saturday’s Lecomte is glutted with speed, but this colt’s debut wiring of a Laurel MSW by 12 ¼ lengths still stands out in the past performances (76 Beyer; fourth-place horse from that race came back to win). This colt is cross-entered in a 1x/optional claimer earlier on Saturday’s Fair Grounds card and could opt for that spot instead.

Mutasaabeq (Into Mischief): Rallied from long way last to win GII Bourbon S. on turf, then no-impact 10th in GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Change of surface and tactics when winning the Jan. 2 Mucho Macho Man S. earns this colt another likely stakes date on dirt.

The post The TDN Derby Top 12 for Jan. 12 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Kentucky Sires for 2021: First Sophomores–Part I

The stallions we reach today are the first actually to have given some initial clue as to their ability to replicate those assets that earned them a place at stud. True, only their most precocious stock have so far tested the water and it should be obvious that limited conclusions can be drawn from so small a sample of their work. But we know the apathy of commercial breeders about producing racehorses. So long as they maximize their value as yearlings, the rest is gravy. That’s why they get behind stallions yet to expose the flimsy parapets of marketing to the unsparing fire of the racetrack.

This lot, in contrast, will have a fourth crop of juveniles on the track by the time yearlings conceived this spring come under the hammer. As we remarked in the last installment of the series, you’d like to think that would sooner be considered an advantage. But we’ve pondered this whole situation often enough, and will spare you another sermon. For present purposes, we must simply note how candidly the commercial market admits its fickleness. All you have to do is measure the losses registered by nearly all stallions between their first and second crop of yearlings–very often, even when their first runners have excelled.

Sometimes a stallion isn’t permitted even a fleeting chance to show what his stock might do on the track. In this intake California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit) found so little sales traction with his first crop that he was exported before he had a single runner. The way he promptly collapsed in the yearling averages, from fifth with his first crop to 21st this time round, shows how artificially we glaze even so narrow a window for the making of a stallion’s reputation. A lot of the time, clearly, everything depends on enough people feeling invested in propping up an unproven brand. (Nor is it just the stallion farms themselves. We in the media are as guilty as anyone, always lavishing the oxygen of publicity on “exciting” new sires).

In this particular cycle, the decline in the value of a second crop has been steepened by the intervention of a pandemic. But we shouldn’t flatter ourselves that things are usually much different.

Even in so jittery a marketplace, it’s nuts that Not This Time should be unique in Kentucky, in this group, in having advanced the value of his second crop. There are only two explanations for this. One is that every single other stallion must be pronounced an overnight failure. The other is that first-crop yearlings are ludicrously overvalued.

Certainly it’s not hard to identify the winners and losers from these opening skirmishes. When their first crop came under the hammer, in 2019, Runhappy was second in the yearling averages and Not This Time 10th. This time round, their places were precisely transposed.

Obviously they experienced contrasting fortunes with their first runners. But we should remember that the yearling sales remain very unfocused. A lot of people crave social media buzz for sprint winners at Keeneland in April, and that may be useful at Fasig-Tipton in July. But the freshmen’s championship continues to develop through the year. With so much juvenile prize money loaded into later races, often round a second turn, it ends up being a pretty valid signpost.

In the preceding intake, for instance, American Pharoah and Constitution finished first and second as freshmen, and again with their second crop. On the other hand, their class also included Daredevil, who has made his famous leap from 17th to fourth. So there will be bargains to be found, above all in a year when cuts are being made across the roster.

Because even a yearling by champion freshman NYQUIST (Uncle Mo–Seeking Gabrielle by Forestry) was worth less in 2020 than its predecessor in 2019, his average slipping from $236,318 to $165,773 (still top of the class). Okay, so his principal earner Vequist didn’t bank her GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies earnings until after the yearling sales, but that does just show how weirdly the business functions.

Nyquist himself, of course, sealed Uncle Mo’s freshman laurels by emulating his championship success at the same meeting. At that stage–having received the customary, consecutive fee cuts as his first crop neared the track–Uncle Mo was promptly able to triple his fee to $75,000. Now, with three sons in the top four of the freshman’s table, he looks a bona fide elite stallion at $175,000.

How far will Nyquist follow in his sire’s path? Well, Darley has duly hiked him to $75,000 for 2021, albeit having in his case hitherto maintained his opening fee of $40,000. He stands on a very different farm from his sire, and there was a corresponding difference in his initial footprint. Uncle Mo had no fewer than 73 juvenile starters in his debut crop, of which 28 won. With 17 winners from 45 starters, Nyquist’s ratio was virtually identical. But what has set Uncle Mo apart is his ability to maintain percentages, in quality, along with all his quantity. He had seven black-type winners that first campaign, compared with two for Nyquist in 2020. Nonetheless Nyquist made sure of a bull’s-eye with both that managed to hit the stakes board, so matching his sire by immediately coming up with two elite winners. The other is Gretzky The Great, who won a Canadian Grade I on turf.

Now his sophomores must consolidate. On the track, Nyquist did so in the ultimate fashion by winning the GI Kentucky Derby–in contrast to his sire, who left his stamina unproven in a fitful campaign at three–albeit subsequently losing his way. The graded stakes quality around his second dam is largely in juvenile racing, but Nyquist is out a half-sister to the mother of a very durable type in GI Met Mile winner Sahara Sky (Pleasant Tap); and three other siblings managed 203 starts between them!

The shape of Nyquist’s family will appeal to anyone inclined to keep a filly, too. His first two dams are by noted broodmare sires in Forestry and Seeking The Gold, whose pedigrees are knotted together by a name to conjure with in Sequence. She is Forestry’s fourth dam, as well as the granddam of Seeking The Gold’s sire Mr. Prospector.

Nyquist is not going to lose momentum, with a fourth book in the 150s behind him, but nor can he afford to do so at his new fee. It’ll be interesting to see how he goes at the 2-year-old sales, too, as he was rather a disappointment last time round. Darley is trumpeting comparisons not just to Uncle Mo, but to Danzig and Tapit, who likewise immediately found two Grade I winners, including at the Breeders’ Cup. But let’s not get carried away. From only 13 starters in 1984, Danzig had 11 winners, nine stakes horses and three Grade I winners, including the champion juvenile colt. Two of them made in the podium in the Derby the following May, as well, so let’s just see how we go from here!

Fee hikes naturally make the value “podium” less accessible and it feels difficult to keep NOT THIS TIME (Giant’s Causeway–Miss Macy Sue by Trippi) up there after his spectacular vindication of “gold” at $12,500 a year ago. Taylor Made has hoisted him to $40,000 for 2021 after he broke the Uncle Mo-nopoly at the top of the freshmen’s table, third by prize money, but clear top by winners with no fewer than 28 from just 54 starters. Matching Uncle Mo’s tally, in fact, which we just noted required 73 starters.

As already remarked, Not This Time bucked the trend by improving the value of his stock between first and second crops: 47 yearlings sold, from 59 into the ring, achieved an average of $113,822–exceeded only by Nyquist, and up from $67,352 for his 63 sales of 90 offered in his first crop.

His flagbearer was the charismatic Princess Noor, the $1.35 million OBS April stunner sadly retired with a soft-tissue injury after a thrilling opening streak on the West Coast: a ‘TDN Rising Star’-worthy maiden, the GI Del Mar Debutante and GII Chandelier.

Not This Time himself was also unable to draw as a sophomore on the Classic influences pervading his pedigree, derailed after closing to a neck of champion Classic Empire (Pioneerof The Nile) in the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile S. But you know that a horse with a page and physique like this could only have maintained his progress on the Triple Crown trail. Indeed, he must be as precocious a juvenile as served his great sire.

A brief lull in traffic should be lucrative for those who kept the faith: 159 mares took advantage of last year’s reduction, following opening books of 145, 129 and 87. (Don’t tell me there are people out there actually reading this stuff!) The new fee puts Not This Time under a different kind of pressure, but there can’t be a young stallion out there so eligible to rise to the challenge: his Breeders’ Cup-placed dam has also, of course, given us Liam’s Map (Unbridled’s Song); while her mother, in turn, owed both sire and grand-dam to Dr Fager’s champion half-sister Ta Wee.

Bottom line is that it may feel tough to pay three times last year’s fee, but at least we know that Not This Time produces runners. If you pay as much or more for any of the stallions previously appraised in this series, your priority can only be the sales ring rather than the racetrack. And Not This Time now has both of those bases covered.

The shock runner-up in the freshmen’s championship, dividing Nyquist and Not This Time, was LAOBAN (Uncle Mo–Chattertown by Speightstown), who has been drafted onto the WinStar roster at $25,000 after starting his career in New York at $7,500.

His 13 winners from 36 starters included five black-type horses, notably fairytale GI Alcibiades winner Simply Ravishing and GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. winner Keepmeinmind, wh placed at the Breeders’ Cup as a maiden. That was straight out of his sire’s playbook. Laoban’s only win, after repeatedly picking up scraps in other good races, was when appearing to steal the GII Jim Dandy on the lead at 27-1.

As such, nobody could sensibly propose that Laoban hinted at elite caliber on the track and for now it all feels a little baffling. But his second dam was a very productive juvenile in Florida-bred sprints, while her sister produced hard-knocking Grade I winner I’m A Chatterbox (Munnings). And Laoban has already had an 11-length debut winner at Aqueduct (NY-breds) since the turn of the year, so maybe he’s a genuine freak. He’s been priced strictly for believers, but he’s the only New York stallion to sire a Grade I winner at the first attempt and partnership support at his new base will no doubt send his numbers rocketing.

In the meantime he has a solid enough base in the Empire State, having followed a debut book of 122 with 91, 72 and 67 mares. If he keeps going, those should yield some good paydays. His first crop had sold respectably (27 of 43 at $30,537) while no fewer than 20 of 21 yearlings were processed this time round, with the news out, at $35,656.

The third son of Uncle Mo to assist his habit of making a flying start-as runner, sire and now sire of sires–was already at WinStar. Indeed, OUTWORK (Uncle Mo–Nonna Mia by Empire Maker) had carried his sire’s standard as the first winner of his first crop, over 4.5 furlongs at Keeneland in April. That proved to be Outwork’s only juvenile start and he disappeared for good after the Derby, but only after stretching out to win the GI Wood Memorial.

That looked a porous race for the level and a better guide to his merit is the way he had made Destin (Giant’s Causeway) work for the GII Tampa Bay Derby. But his eligibility for stud was underpinned by his dam, a Grade I-placed three-parts sister to a flourishing young stallion in Cairo Prince (Pioneerof The Nile).

Sure enough, Outwork has started very well with 19 winners from 48 starters including two at stakes level. (One of these, Outadore, then ran third in the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf). As such, he is a good example of the nonsensical behavior of purchasers. His first crop of yearlings averaged $84,234 (for 66 sold of a bumper 88 offering). While managing fourth in the freshmen’s table, however, he saw his second crop halved in value for a yield of $39,987, albeit for a good ratio of 41 sales from 50.

While again making allowances for its depressed condition this year, that’s a fairly dismal commentary on the infidelity of the commercial market. Auspiciously, however, the word was out sufficiently last winter for his book to soar back to 160, having opened with 168, 137 and 102, so it looks as though his true reward can be a sustainable stud career. He duly holds his fee at $15,000.

Darley hosted both the most expensive stallions in this intake. But whereas Nyquist has been hiked from $40,000 to $75,000, FROSTED (Tapit–Fast Cookie by Deputy Minister) has taken consecutive cuts from $50,000, to $40,000 last year and now to $25,000.

Doubtless that partly reflects the deep freeze in the wider economy, which in turn contributed to a relatively trying time at the sales for Frosted’s second crop. His first yearlings had certainly worked that big opening fee very efficiently, 67 sales (of 94 offered) realizing $223,365, but this time round–between the pandemic and the infantile attention span of the market–he sank to $67,371 for 52 sales (74 into the ring).

In the meantime, however, his 2-year-olds had actually sold at a parallel rate and in a far higher ratio than those of his flourishing studmate Nyquist. And that endorsement of his stock’s athleticism was followed by a perfectly respectable start on the track, fifth in the prize money table with 16 scorers from 58 starters headed by GII Golden Rod winner and ‘TDN Rising Star’ Travel Column. It was as a 4-year-old, after all, that Frosted posted his signature 123 Beyer explosion in the GI Met Mile–albeit he had come to hand early enough to win the Wood Memorial on his way to a supporting role in two legs of the Triple Crown won by American Pharoah (Pioneerof The Nile), while arguably often stretching beyond his optimal distance.

Expect his first sophomores to give Frosted new momentum. Already since the turn of the year he has had a third graded stakes player, and he has that solid genetic bedrock too: his dam is a Grade II-winning half-sister by broodmare sire icon Deputy Minister to the same farm’s under-rated sire Midshipman (Unbridled’s Song). There will be no breaks in the action, as he received 157 guests last spring after opening books of 156, 152 and 144. The bottom line is that Frosted is no less eligible to excel now than when he started, but you can get to him at half the fee.

The most conspicuous hit in this intake has been taken by RUNHAPPY (Super Saver–Bella Jolie by Broken Vow), down to $10,000 from $25,000 at Claiborne. His has been a bewildering tale, to this point. He made a sensational sales debut, finding a new home for as many as 59 of the 68 yearlings into the ring from his first crop at a fantastic yield of $227,000. He also had a $475,000 2-year-old in a tricky market at OBS March. But then things went uncomfortably quiet.

He did eventually muster nine juvenile winners from 40 starters, albeit without a single stakes placing. The vendors of 66 members of Runhappy’s second crop, who must have been congratulating themselves on their foresight last winter, were duly dismayed to sell 45 at just $35,760.

Hardly what was bargained for, given that Runhappy’s forte was pure speed–as measured by a stakes record in the GI King’s Bishop and a track record in the GI Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Admittedly there is limited depth to his family, but maybe patience will be rewarded. Though Runhappy was an eight-length debut winner at two, that wasn’t until Dec. 28. We should also remember how freakish his speed appeared, in the son of a Derby winner who was himself out of an A.P. Indy mare, so perhaps Runhappy’s stock will only really begin to smile as sophomores.

Certainly breeders have been given every incentive to keep the faith, at the new fee. And we wish the horse well, in principle, because his brilliant sales debut surely owed something to the restraint governing his opening books (all four in the 120s) and so reminded everyone that there’s nothing remotely “commercial” about the industrial numbers thrown at new sires elsewhere.

The concluding part of this instalment in our series will appear in Tuesday’s edition, featuring the likes of, among others, Upstart, Speightster, Air Force Blue, Exaggerator, Tourist, Flintshire and Brody’s Cause, along with our “value podium.”

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Keeping Up With Krcmar: A Lifetime of Loving Horses and a Career-Year at 79

Courtesy Woodbine Communications

TORONTO–When Zeljko Krcmar arrived in Ontario, he carried two dollars in his pocket, hope of a better life, and a dream of rekindling his association with horses.

It was 1968 when the young man from Yugoslavia first set foot in Toronto. He can recall the moment as though it happened yesterday.

“I came here to work as a chemist, that was my trade,” recalled Krcmar. “But because my love and my passion was horses, I knew I had to do something for my career that was built around them. I was in show horses most of my life. When I was in Yugoslavia, I was a show jumper. The horses, throughout my life, I have always felt a closeness to them.”

His daughter, Mary Self, has seen the countless photos of his father’s show horse days.

Although each picture is different in what’s depicted, every image shares a connection with the others.

“He’s very, very passionate about horses,” said Self. “He’s one of those old-time horsemen, and he’s been doing it his whole life. Dad started riding when he was in Yugoslavia. The only place to ride horses was in the military–and there was mandatory military duty–so he would ride with the soldiers.”

Krcmar’s skills in the saddle led to other roles outside of the show ring.

“My dad used to box and he was also a stuntman,” said Self. “I remember when I was young going to movie shoots with him. He played Tonto in a movie, and he did tricks on the horses. We had dogs that he would teach tricks to and they were in TV shows. I had quite the childhood seeing him doing all of those different things.”

Horses, however, were, and still very much are, Krcmar’s greatest joy.

Seven years after he came to Canada, he found his way to Woodbine Racetrack. Krcmar felt contentment the moment he walked onto the Toronto oval grounds.

After earning his trainer’s license, he saddled his first horse in 1975. Now, some 45 years after sending his first Thoroughbred postward, Krcmar, nearly 80, is still finding happiness at the racetrack.

His career numbers aren’t nearly as flashy as some of his contemporaries–98 wins, two stakes triumphs (including the 2008 Deputy Minister at Woodbine with Piper in the Glen) and just shy of $2 million in lifetime purse earnings–but Krcmar’s training talents are indisputable.

And he hasn’t lost a step.

In 2020, he won 16 races, a career-best number, from 75 starts. His horses produced $283,401 in earnings, also a lifetime-best mark.

“I changed a lot of things this year,” noted Krcmar, whose racing silks feature the Croatian national flag and colours. “My feeding program was different from anyone else’s program. Plus, with so many years experience, what you learn over time, it all helps. Even mistakes. You learn from your mistakes and that helps you perfect things.”

It also helps when you have a talented team at your side.

Krcmar’s wife, Gail, is a prime example.

“They are just the nicest people on earth,” said Self. “Dad, with his feed program, and the way he takes care of the horses, and Gail–she’s in her 70s–she’s on her hands and knees every day doing their legs, it’s incredible.”

Self is also heavily involved and invested in horse racing, including as a Thoroughbred owner.

Along with Tim Murray, they started owning horses together last year. In 2020, they began the season with six horses. By the end of the Woodbine campaign, they had four–one was claimed, another became a show jumper.

“We’re blessed to have them taking care of our horses,” said Self. “We buy at the sale or privately. We’re not big-time buyers, owners or breeders. We do it the best we can.”

Murray, a native New Yorker now living in Florida, had no prior knowledge of the racing business.

After meeting Self and Krcmar, his interest piqued with more horse talk.

“I knew nothing about horses,” said Murray with a laugh. “I didn’t even know what a halter was. Mary somehow talked me into going to OBS [Ocala Breeders’ Sales] last summer, and she started telling me about the great bonuses you get for purchasing an Ontario-sired or Ontario-bred horse. So, we went off from there. She taught me how to read the pedigree books and everything else.

“I leave it up to Mary and her father when it comes to the conformation side of things. I stick with the paper. I’m like the Brad Pitt character in the movie Moneyball, analyzing the data and the competition. Somehow, our horses always seem to be in the top three.”

Murray has high praise for Krcmar, and not just for his training abilities.

“He’s one of those people that will always help anyone. He treats his horses and people the same way. He’s very humble, family-oriented, and someone who would give you the shirt off his back. He’s a great person, someone you are proud to know and proud to work with.”

Just like those Murray worked alongside during his days as a Marine, a FDNY firefighter and an NYPD policeman.

He was at ground zero the day of 9/11.

“We all went down there. They lost 343 people in the fire department… I can tell you that I’ve been to one too many funerals over the years, but it was an honor to serve in each role I had. I went from the police to the fire department, and that’s how I finished out my career.”

Now retired and living in central Florida, horses have become his hobby.

His ownership silks pay tribute to the firefighters that perished Sept. 11, 2001.

“I had my niece design the colors, which are the colours of the Marines, the red and yellow,” he said. “I have the Marines, my first career, and on the left sleeve is the NYPD, and on the right sleeve is the FDNY. On the blinkers, it has the number 343, out of respect for those from the fire department who died. I feel like… it’s like they are rooting for me from heaven. As corny as it may sound, that’s how I feel.”

Seeing those colors represented in the winner’s circle for the first time was an emotional moment for Murray, Krcmar and Self.

It was Make No Mistake, a Kentucky-bred daughter of Raison d’Etat, who provided the emotional score for her connections on Aug. 9, 2019.

“This sport, it can be a rollercoaster, but you just have to go into it knowing that,” said Murray. “But just that one time in the winner’s circle… it’s just an amazing feeling. There’s really nothing else like it. We won our first race at Woodbine and we were there. I can’t even describe that feeling.”

Although they weren’t able to stand railside at Woodbine July 31 this year, Make No Mistake added another memorable highlight.

The dark bay skipped over the Inner Turf in 1:34.35 for one mile on that day, setting the track record in the process. It was one of four wins she had on the year for the trio.

It was another high point in a banner year for a veteran trainer.

Nothing, not even the premature ending to the Woodbine Thoroughbred season due to COVID-19, could take away from Krcmar’s outstanding 2020 campaign.

“My dad, he just takes it all in stride,” offered Self. “You know, they are just doing what they have to do. He’s so flexible and easy about everything. I think that’s why people like him the way they do. One of our horses got claimed this year and I asked my dad, ‘What are we going to do?’ He said to me, ‘Listen, it’s all part of the sport. It’s okay.’ My dad, he doesn’t want to claim from anyone. He doesn’t want to take the horse away from someone. He did claim two from Mark Casse this year, but he went and asked if it was okay to do it. He smiles every day he is at the racetrack and around his horses.”

For now, Krcmar will attempt to relax, something, admittedly, that is often easier said than done.

Not surprisingly, his association with horses will stay strong over the winter months.

“My son has a big show stable in Aurora, so I’m going to go there and help any way I can, something to keep myself busy, teaching and coaching.”

Krcmar will also no doubt think about the 2021 racing season at Woodbine, which will be his final one as a trainer.

“Two wins away from 100? I will get that,” Krcmar said. “I want to pass that. Hopefully, next year will be the same as this year. I would be happy with that. It was a wonderful year. My wife, she is my stakes horse. Without her, I wouldn’t be able to do this. She just never stops and she takes such good care of the horses. She keeps me going too.

“I still love it, or otherwise I would have quit a long time ago. I’m happy if I have a horse in a stakes race, the same way I’m happy if I have a horse in a $15,000 claimer. It’s exactly the same feeling. I just love my horses.”

And it’s obvious the horses love to run for Krcmar.

“They really do,” said Self. “I always think to myself, ‘Can you imagine being almost 80, getting up every morning and doing what you love?’ But that’s what my dad has done. He defected from a Communist country. He came to Canada with two dollars and he was able to keep his bond with the horses.”

It’s a bond that Krcmar treasures.

“Horses gave me a life in this country,” he said. “If I didn’t have that, I’d probably be working in a chemical plant and be an unhappy guy. But I have done something that has brought me great joy. Always be good to your horses, and don’t push them. They are like crystal and that’s how they should be treated.”

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Colt is First Reported Foal for Yoshida

Multiple Grade I winner Yoshida (Jpn) (Heart’s Cry {Jpn}–Hilda’s Passion, by Canadian Frontier) was represented by his first reported foal when a colt out of Gravata (Ger) (Monsun {Ger}) was born at WinStar Farm Saturday night. The foal was bred by Anastasie Astrid Christiansen-Croy.

“We’re thrilled to welcome the first Yoshida foal here at WinStar Farm on behalf of our client Ms. Christiansen-Croy,” said Liam O’Rourke, WinStar’s director of bloodstock services. “Yoshida has repatriated the Sunday Silence line to America and these foals represent the next generation of that world-class sire. Yoshida was an elite and versatile racehorse and will be strongly supported again in his second year at stud in 2021.”

Campaigned by WinStar Farm, China Horse Club International and Head of Plains Partners and trained by Bill Mott, Yoshida won the 2018 GI Woodward S. and the GI Old Forester Turf Classic.

Yoshida bred 148 mares in his first book in 2020 at WinStar and he will stand the upcoming breeding season for $15,000 S&N.

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