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Letter to the Industry: Coolmore Calls on Industry for HHR Support

Dear Friend of Coolmore America,

As a valued client and friend of Coolmore America we need your help to take action and keep the Kentucky thoroughbred business strong and vibrant. Due to a recent ruling by the Kentucky Supreme Court the future of the horse business in Kentucky along with the more than 60,000 jobs and more than $5.2 billion in economic impact is now at a crossroads and in jeopardy.

Over the last decade historical horse racing has helped the horse industry flourish and has created thousands of jobs and cemented Kentucky as the capital of the horse racing and breeding world. We need your help to contact state legislators here in Kentucky and tell them what the Kentucky horse industry means to you, your family, your business and your life.

The horse business in the United States needs a strong Kentucky and our legislators need to hear from YOU!

Please follow the steps below and let Frankfort hear your voice.

Kentucky Residents

Visit www.horseswork.com
If you are a Kentucky resident click on “Send a message to your legislator”.
Compose your unique message to your local legislators telling them what the horse business means to you.
Once you enter your contact details your local legislators will automatically populate.
Hit send message.

Non Kentucky Residents

Visit www.horseswork.com
If you are a non-Kentucky resident click on “Sign our petition”.
Fill in the 3 fields
Hit “submit”.

Best wishes,

Coolmore America

The post Letter to the Industry: Coolmore Calls on Industry for HHR Support appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Kentucky Sires for 2021: Fifth-Crop Stallions

Today we come to a final group of stallions whose development we're treating separately, before wrapping up our series with a look at those survivors who made it across the highwire and can be grouped together as “Established Sires.” (After which we'll also be taking a tour of regional stallions.)

In the last couple of instalments, we've observed the Kentucky talent pool in each intake rapidly drying up, so that our review of third- and fourth-crop options respectively encompassed 18 and just six stallions. And we are left with a similar rump among those about to launch a fifth crop of juveniles, with only seven still advertising a fee in Kentucky.

No need, by this stage, to reprise yet again the familiar traps of the commercial model. Suffice to turn back the clock to 2016, not so long ago, when Orb (Malibu Moon–Lady Liberty, by Unbridled)–a Kentucky Derby winner from the family of Ruffian, standing for $25,000 on an exemplary, historic farm; one sagely resistant to the inundation of the market by more industrial rivals–dominated this group with a $148,318 average for his first yearlings. Unusually, moreover, he actually managed to elevate his second crop to a still higher yield at $184,006, when selling no fewer than 66 of 77 into the ring. The world was at his feet. In 2021 Orb is still clinging on at Claiborne, but listed as “private” after receiving a grand total of seven mares last spring.

Nobody's fault, and there are parallels on every farm. Conceivably Orb could yet pull a champion out of his hat. But such is the terrifying commercial vortex that consumes a young stallion who does not make an adequately purposeful start.

Nor, on the other hand, does even the briskest of beginnings guarantee lasting momentum. The champion freshman of this group was Overanalyze, whose 2018 book at WinStar promptly soared to 195. The following season, however, he had plummeted to 43 mares and last spring he was exported to Korea. Shanghai Bobby was on his way to Japan within the year of finishing third in the freshmen championship–despite having meanwhile produced a Royal Ascot winner from his second crop, which also turned out to include elite sprinter Shancelot. A year later Japan would also summon Animal Kingdom, who had finished fourth in the freshman table.

Yet this is also the intake that includes New Year's Day. Having been reduced to a couple of dozen mares at $5,000 in 2018, he was sold to Brazil four months before an upgraded claiming horse named Maximum Security gave him a first graded stakes success. The rest is history, and New Year's Day has since been given a fresh start in Japan.

What a chaotic environment, then, shaped more by luck than judgement, has been heroically negotiated by the handful in this class who have established a viable niche in the Kentucky market.

Violence | Sarah Andrew

As it happens, far and away their most consistent achiever has been a horse who was worn down in the GII Fountain of Youth S., which turned out to be his final start, by none other than Orb. Their fortunes have diverged in their new careers, with Violence (Medaglia d'Oro–Violent Beauty, by Gone West) at Hill 'n' Dale dominating on cumulative results by virtually all indices. He only missed Overanalyze by cents as a freshman, and has since maintained output for 21 black-type winners.

True, he had a quieter year in 2019, prompting an immediate reversal–back to $25,000 from $40,000–of the fee hike he had earned with his across-the-board second-crop championship, on the back of which he had sold his yearlings (conceived at $15,000) for a knockout average of $133,600. But his 2020 campaign has the look of a turning point, crowned not just by a first domestic Grade I winner but by three of them, from consecutive crops: Volatile in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt H., No Parole in the Woody Stephens, and Dr. Schivel in the Del Mar Futurity. Behind Speightstown's four elite scorers, only Into Mischief, More Than Ready and War Front shared this distinction in 2020.

The focus on speed in his elite trio is an interesting development. Violence's own sire, though by an avowed turf influence in El Prado (Ire), operated on dirt and has divided his impact, at stud, not only between surfaces but also between disciplines. And an aristocratic maternal family features a series of crossover influences: second dam by Storm Cat out of Hall of Famer Sky Beauty (Blushing Groom); third a half-sister to the flying Dayjur (Danzig); fourth by Nijinsky out of champion sprinter Gold Beauty (Mr. Prospector).

There will be no break in the traffic for Violence, whose sales performance reflects something of his own exceptional physique. The group of juveniles he is about to launch, indeed, graduate from a book of 214 mares and he only lost momentum after that quiet 2019, with 86 mares last year. You can bet that numbers will be back up now. After sliding to a yearling average of $44,649 with his 2019 blip, this time round Violence rallied to $72,128 for 66 yearlings sold of 88 offered–an especially good performance, of course, in the teeth of the pandemic economy.

I love that Violence's first two dams are both by sires, in Gone West and Storm Cat, out of daughters of Secretariat–whose half-brother Sir Gaylord is responsible for the damsire of El Prado. One way or another, Violence now has all bases covered and can keep consolidating.

Paynter | WinStar

If Violence has always seemed regal, his nearest pursuer in this group has seemed more like the plucky fellow fighting to earn his stripes. Doubtless that partly reflects the grave health challenges overcome by Paynter (Awesome Again–Tizso, by Cee's Tizzy) before he could resume at a high level as an older horse. But we should remind ourselves that he actually started out at WinStar off a higher fee ($25,000) than Violence.

For 2021, he has taken his fourth fee cut to just $7,500–pretty astonishing, really, when he had just been saluted as sire of the fastest miler in Keeneland's history. Now, of course, Knicks Go has followed up his GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile track record in the GI Pegasus World Cup, reiterating his ability to kick again from the front. But this dazzling renewal for the Brad Cox barn is actually the second time that Maryland-bred Knicks Go, whose family is seeded by some pretty exotic names, has demanded a fresh look at his sire.

With three-figure books across his first four seasons, Paynter had been given a solid base and his first yearlings were well supported. They made a fairly quiet start on the track the following year, however, reducing his next book to just 34 mares at half his opening fee. Neither Paynter himself nor his sire had raced at two, so it's hard to know quite what breeders were expecting. But then Knicks Go emerged from his second crop, first as shock winner of the GI Breeders' Futurity and then beating all bar Game Winner (Candy Ride {Arg}) in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. That revived momentum for Paynter, who received 97 and 71 mares in the two years since, and the second coming of Knicks Go will surely repeat the dose at such a low fee.

Because actually Paynter has a solid spread of talent behind his flagship. Knicks Go, remember, sat out most of 2020 and his $608,440 earnings represented only 10 cents in every dollar banked by Paynter in overhauling even Violence, with his three Grade I winners, to top the fourth-crop sires table. Though we've seen that only a handful of elite stallions could match the icing on Violence's cake, their performance otherwise was very similar: Paynter had 222 starters, Violence 225; he had nine black-type winners, against eight for Violence; 18 black-type performers played 15; each had three graded stakes winners and six graded stakes horses; and they respectively notched 115 and 116 winners overall.

The gap between them, of course, remains the one that divides Knicks Go from the rest of Paynter's best stock. Graded stakes winner Harpers First Ride is doing his best, ten-for-18 overall after finishing tailed off in the Pegasus, but Paynter doesn't want Knicks Go to seem so freakish as to become as much of a burden as a benefit. That's why we should respect the breadth of his output, putting him in some pretty august company in the general sires list (among the top 20 active stallions last year).

Paynter's fee cut looks a sensible response to his virtual disappearance as a commercial force with his latest yearlings, processing a handful for a four-figure average. But he can turn that round, too, as people absorb the supporting cast behind his headline act. Either way he certainly looks attractively priced for anyone who might want to breed a runner. And remember his deeds all have an obvious genetic base: he's out of a full-sister to his farm's pensioned legend Tiznow.

Take Charge Indy | Louise Reinagel

This group contains one stallion who has actually managed to reverse the usual tide, Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy–Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) having last year returned to WinStar after a three-year stint in Korea. He had been exported after a tepid reception for his first yearlings in 2016, leggy and immature as they often were, an average of $40,422 representing a limited yield for a rookie who had started out at $20,000.

The three crops he left behind, however, turned out to include the likes of GII Rebel S. winner Long Range Toddy, GII Louisiana Derby winner Noble Indy and GI Preakness S. runner-up Everfast. In 2018, Take Charge Indy finished runner-up in the second-crop table; and the following year he edged out Paynter to top the third-crop championship with five black-type winners. He only mustered one of those last year, but obviously had no juvenile input in play.

He was welcomed back by 144 mares last spring, at $17,500, and a mild trim to $15,000 suggests confidence that breeders will be following through on a pedigree that unites a breed-shaping stallion with a top-class runner who has since become a Broodmare of the Year (also responsible, of course, for Three Chimneys sire Will Take Charge). As with Violence, we get a double dose of Secretariat's daughters through Weekend Surprise, the dam of A.P. Indy, and Sister Dot, who gave us Take Charge Lady's sire Dehere. Indeed, the whole page is saturated with Classic influences and, if his GI Florida Derby success could not disguise the reality that he raced one peg below the very best, then Take Charge Indy could well become one of those whose genes make him eligible to produce runners still better than himself.

That remains to be seen. Strictly, Take Charge Indy still needs his big horse–but the bottom line is that his black-type winners and performers have come at a clip slightly better than both Violence and Paynter. Obviously he has a problem in that there will be few if any headlines coming off the track for a couple years now, so he may need the market to invest his relaunch with something of the glamour generally reserved for total newcomers. But he should be treated with more respect than those, having already demonstrated his competence in the role. And the Classic complexion of his overall pedigree should especially appeal to anyone prepared to retain a filly.

Oxbow | ThoroStride

Another nugget of old-fashioned virtue, and who happens to be even more closely related to a rival in this intake, is Oxbow (Awesome Again–Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) at Calumet. He is by the same sire as Paynter and his dam, like Paynter, is another sister to the great Tiznow. Both horses, moreover, finished second in the GI Belmont S. But Oxbow did so after winning the GI Preakness and running sixth in the Derby, and earlier won the GIII Lecomte S. by 11 1/2 lengths. Unfortunately he derailed in his next start, but he had left no doubt as to his throwback, speed-carrying capacities and you'd be confident that his stock will mature effectively.

That's important, because his sophomores this year represent a book of 187–and they include none other than Hot Rod Charlie, 94-1 runner-up in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. So these might just keep him in the game after he was reduced to a very small book last year, duly trimmed to $7,500 (opened at $20,000). His percentages are unexciting and he appears to have rather shot his bolt as a commercial sire, but that won't stop him producing another Coach Rocks (GII Gulfstream Oaks) or two.

Jimmy Creed | Spendthrift

Jimmy Creed (Distorted Humor–Hookedonthefeelin, by Citidancer) represents a very different firm, in Spendthrift. But actually he has so far had nothing like the kind of industrial output sometimes associated with that farm, while having quietly established himself as a most consistent operator at $10,000, temptingly down from $15,000. In fact, his lifetime ratio of black-type winners and performers to named foals (5.2% and 11.5% respectively) is ahead of all these, even Violence (4.5% and 8.7%).

That makes him a really interesting proposition, as a lively start with his first juveniles (20 winners from 44 starters) turned round his book from 67 in 2017 to 165 in 2018. That gives him a big team of juveniles for the year ahead, including yearlings that sold for as much as $500,000 and an average $46,125, while he had another 253 covers across the next two years to keep the pipeline full. In other words, foals conceived now can hope to ride renewed headlines on the track, where he has already produced four graded stakes winners/four Grade I horses. It's all perfectly feasible of a GI Malibu winner whose dam and half-sister Pussycat Doll (Real Quiet) both won the GI La Brea S.

Alternation | Asuncion Pineyrua

Another by the same sire, Alternation (Distorted Humor–Alternate, by Seattle Slew) resembles Paynter with Knicks Go in needing to show that it is not all about GI Kentucky Oaks winner Serengeti Empress. Yes, he only has one other graded stakes winner to this point, but eight black-type scorers overall is a respectable percentage of only 199 named foals.

By this stage he's not really pretending to be a commercial sire but the 40 mares he entertained at Pin Oak last year were sent in the knowledge that his half-brother Higher Power (Medaglia d'Oro) has now earned a place at Darby Dan as a runaway winner of the GI Pacific Classic. Their dam is a half-sister to Canadian Horse of the Year Peaks and Valleys (Mt. Livermore) and it's a regal family all round. He has done it once and, given the chance, there's no reason why he shouldn't do it again.

The only other stallion apparently advertising a fee in Kentucky from this group is Raison d'Etat (A.P. Indy–Sightseek, by Distant View) at Calumet, off the bargain peg of $2,500. He is trading primarily on his genes, rather than the limited use he made of them on the track, but has vindicated the theory to a modest degree with a couple of stakes winners so far.

Bottom line is that some of these survivors may have a lean and hungry look, but they're a deserving bunch overall and much better value than almost all the unproven stallions who dominate the market. Here's hoping they consolidate and can earn a place, next time round, in our concluding look at Established Sires.

CHRIS McGRATH'S VALUE PODIUM: Fourth- & Fifth-Crop Sires
Gold: Paynter ($7,500, WinStar)
Good base behind his headline act, yet cost shrinking
Silver: Cairo Prince ($15,000, Airdrie)
Star of his class now a tempting fee
Bronze: Jimmy Creed ($10,000, Spendthrift)
Pipeline is loaded.

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Sikura Makes A Case for World of Trouble

When Hill 'n' Dale Farms announced that it would be standing World of Trouble (Kantharos) at stud, everything appeared straightforward. The horse was among the fastest of his generation and had won Grade I races on the turf and dirt. Considering the modest stud fee of $15,000 and the horse's credentials, Hill 'n' Dale President John Sikura had every reason to believe that the horse would be one of the more popular stallions at his farm.

Five months later, it all came crashing down. His trainer Jason Servis was indicted in March for allegedly using performance-enhancing drugs on his horses. Suddenly, he became a tough sell as a stallion.

Some may claim that none of this should have been a surprise to Sikura. Long before the indictments, suspicions surrounded Servis, a trainer whose accomplishments often seemed too good to be true.

“I claim naivete,” Sikura said. “I was not aware of any suspicions. It wasn't common talk in my circles. It may have been among gamblers or rival trainers, but I was never aware of any controversy swirling around him. Now I am more attuned to the subject and pay attention to it more closely. ”

Sikura decided to be proactive. He issued an open letter to the industry in the TDN defending World of Trouble and cut his stud fee in half to $7,500. Whether it will work or not remains to be seen. This is new territory for not just World of Trouble, but a handful of other stallions that were trained by Servis or Jorge Navarro, who was also indicted for allegedly using performance-enhancing drugs. Were they top race horses because of their natural ability or because their trainers may have been cheating or some combination of the two?

“If you delve into his form you'll see that this horse has always been a good horse,” Sikura said. “If he was given substances he shouldn't have been given, I won't defend that, but to say that a horse can run three quarters in six and change only because off some potion, I don't think that's a realistic position. The correlation between multiple Grade I winner and a magic potion, I don't think that is fair. I don't think it's based in fact.”

World of Trouble won the GI 2019 Jaipur S. at six furlongs on the grass in 1:06.37. Two starts earlier, he won the GI Carter H. on the dirt. Those are his two most impressive wins, but Sikura is quick to point out that World of Trouble showed promise before being turned over to Servis after his second career start. For trainer Kathleen O'Connell, he broke his maiden by 14 lengths in his first start and then was second in the FTBOA Florida Sire Affirmed S.

“Trained by Kathleen O'Connell for his first two starts as a two-year-old, World of Trouble looked like a world beater, breaking his maiden first time out by 14 lengths,” Sikura wrote in his letter.
Sikura said it's too early to tell whether or not his letter and the reduction in the stud fee will mean that World of Trouble will have a decent size book this year. Last year, in his first season as a sire, he was bred to 121 mares, most of which were booked before the indictments came out.

“It's early yet,” he said. “What we've done has stirred debate, but I don't know if it will change anybody's stance. We reduced the stud fee in half, we pointed out that he was fast before he was trained by Jason Servis and that he was fast after he was trained by Jason Servis. We don't know the specific illegal drug that was given to the horse or how, if and to what measure that affected his performance. It's an issue people feel strongly about, but a lot of it is just conjecture.”

Sikura said he has received messages of support when it comes to World of Trouble, but has also been targeted by those who he calls Internet trolls, “who hate the game and are convinced there is a conspiracy and a cover up when it comes to everything.”

Hill 'n' Dale also might have felt some concern after Charlatan (Speightstown) crossed the wire first in a division of the GI Arkansas Derby, and the farm secured the breeding rights to the Bob Baffert-trained colt. It was soon revealed that Charlatan had tested positive for lidocaine in the race, which meant he lost his lone Grade I win at the time.

But Charlatan will be fine. He came back to win the GI Runhappy Malibu S. and is the likely favorite in the $20 million Saudi Cup. He figures to be a very popular sire. As for World of Trouble, his first crop will hit the racetrack in 2023. It may not be until then that the questions swirling around World of Trouble are answered.

“We made decisions that should impact interest and increase the size of his book to some degree,” Sikura said. “What happens next, only time will tell.”

The post Sikura Makes A Case for World of Trouble appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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The TDN Derby Top 12 for February 2

The Nos. 1, 2 and 3 candidates atop this week's GI Kentucky Derby rankings are fascinating from a tactical standpoint. In order, their styles are that of a relentless stalker, a high-cruising speed specialist, and a dominant, off-the-pace tailgater. But the contenders ranked behind them are poised to pounce as we edge past the 90-day mark until the first Saturday in May.

1) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt & GISW, 3-3-0-0, $1,335,144.
Last Start: 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments Include: 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 15
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 30.

'TDN Rising Star' Essential Quality can now add “2-year-old champ” to his 3-for-3 resume after winning Thursday's Eclipse Awards vote. But there was also big news last week about plans for this Godolphin homebred's 2021 debut, which trainer Brad Cox said will be the GIII Southwest S. Feb. 15 at Oaklawn (the GII Risen Star S. Feb. 13 at Fair Grounds had been the secondary option). The decision came down to a distance preference (1 1/16 miles for the Southwest versus half a furlong farther in the Risen Star), which is entirely logical for this Tapit colt's first race back since the winning the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. This athletic gray was a versatile stalker at age two, and looked well within his element employing intimidating pace-pressing tactics. Although “EQ” has twice won at 1 1/16 miles, both of those Grade I victories came over Keeneland's short-stretch configuration, where races at that distance end at the sixteenth pole. How have Eclipse champs fared in the Derby? In the 21st Century, Street Sense, American Pharoah and Nyquist all managed that double. There were no Eclipse/Derby winners in the 1980s or '90s. But in the '70s that feat was quite common, and the honor roll includes some legendary names: Spectacular Bid, Affirmed, Seattle Slew, Foolish Pleasure, Secretariat and Riva Ridge.

2) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: SW, 4-2-2-0, $166,092. Last Start: 1st Smarty Jones S., OP, Jan. 22.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13 or GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 10
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

'TDN Rising Star' Caddo River is still basking in the afterglow of his tour-de-force, 10 1/4-length blowout in the opening-day Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn. A homebred for Arkansas lumberman John Ed Anthony's Shortleaf Stable, trainer Brad Cox has confirmed that this colt will remain on the Hot Springs prep path. But considering how Cox is a proponent of spacing races, it seems likely that Caddo River might bypass the upcoming Southwest S. (which has already drawn commitments from the Nos. 1 and 5 contenders on this list) in favor of using the Mar. 13 GII Rebel S. and Apr. 10 GI Arkansas Derby as his launch pad to Louisville. This Hard Spun colt's past-performance lines got a nice lift Saturday when Greatest Honour (Tapit) won the GIII Holy Bull S., because Greatest Honour had twice finished third in “loaded” New York MSW races in which Caddo River ran second. Although speed is Caddo River's main weapon, he's not so much a blast-out-of-the-gate presence as a colt who breaks fluidly then rapidly attains a high cruising speed and stays there, which is the type of speed that can be better leveraged into excelling over 10 furlongs.

3) GREATEST HONOUR (c, Tapit–Tiffany's Honour, by Street Cry {Ire})
O/B-Courtlandt Farms (KY). T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-1-2, $175,240.
Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S., GP, Jan. 30
Next Start: GII Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27 or GI Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Greatest Honour, a Courtlandt Farms homebred by Tapit, makes a leapfrog debut onto the Top 12 this week after unleashing a bold, sustained Holy Bull S. run that was as impressive in watching him build it up as it was in seeing him uncoil that devastating kick in the stretch knowing he was “just playing around,” as jockey Jose Ortiz quipped post-race. “I was really, really happy going to the five-eighths,” said Ortiz. “Luckily, I didn't have to fight for any position. I was just able to take it. Honestly, when I put myself four wide in the clear, I showed him the whip one time and from that point I knew I was going to have a really, really good shot to win. When we got to the quarter pole, I knew I had it.” Greatest Honour earned an 89 Beyer Speed Figure, and trainer Shug McGaughey said in the winner's circle this colt will prep for the Derby in at least one other Gulfstream stakes. Asked if the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth (FOY) was a possibility, McGaughey said it was before quickly adding, “But I think we need to wait a little bit. I mean, he's not going to be a hard horse for me to have ready for the [Mar 27] GI Florida Derby. And a mile and an eighth is going to suit him even better than a mile and a sixteenth” in the FOY.

4) LIFE IS GOOD (c, Into Mischief–Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor)
O-CHC Inc & WinStar Farm LLC. B-Gary & Mary West Stable (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $525,000 ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $94,200.
Last Start: 1st GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 2
Next Start: Possible for GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

'TDN Rising Star' Life Is Good, a $525,000 KEESEP Into Mischief bay, is the top gun among California-based horses. But like many Bob Baffert phenoms who dominate short-field Santa Anita stakes as prohibitive favorites, it can be difficult to gauge just how talented these sophomores actually are. This past Saturday, we got a little help in judging where Life Is Good stands from a company-line perspective. Fellow Baffert trainee Medina Spirit (Protonico), who finished three-quarters of a length behind Life Is Good in the Jan. 2 GIII Sham S. (and 13 lengths ahead of everyone else), won a three-horse photo to tenaciously snag the GIII Lewis S. But bettors who participated in Pool 2 of the Derby Future Wager the previous weekend needed no such convincer: They made Life Is Good the 7-1 second choice behind the “field” option. What is perplexing about the Future Wager odds though, is that Life Is Good actually closed at a lower price (5-1) back in November's Pool 1 when he only had a highly hyped maiden win on his record. So anyone who waited for Life Is Good to win a stakes race and edge two months closer to the Derby got rewarded with the better price despite the proposition looking much stronger. It's supposed to work the other way around, but future-bet markets are rife with inefficiencies.

5) JACKIE'S WARRIOR (c, Maclean's Music–Unicorn Girl, by A.P. Five Hundred)
O-J Kirk & Judy Robison. B-J & J Stables (KY). T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $95,000 ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $502,564.
Last Start: 4th GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments: 1st GII Saratoga Special, 1st GI Runhappy Hopeful S., 1st GI Champagne S.
Next Start: GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 15.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 12.

Now that Essential Quality's connections have committed to the Southwest S., the highly anticipated grudge match between the two Breeders' Cup Juvenile favorites is on for Feb. 15, representing the first true clash of the year between “headline” horses on the Derby trail. The first time they met, then-undefeated Jackie's Warrior was bet down to 9-10 odds and got first run into a sacrificial speed duel after enjoying an in-the-clear stalking trip. Still-undefeated “EQ” was the 7-2 second choice in the Breeders' Cup, and he was content to drop a dozen lengths off the action and build gradual momentum that didn't crest until a sixteenth of a mile from the wire, catapulting him to victory while “Jackie” was fourth, beaten 3 1/4 lengths. Purely from a next-race perspective, this $95,000 KEESEP Maclean's Music colt is likely to hold the upper hand based on his wicked turn of foot and the tendency for speed-oriented horses to do well at Oaklawn. But until Jackie actually wins a two-turn race (he was 4-for-4 at age two, winning at five, six, seven and eight furlongs), the jury is still out as to whether or not a 10-furlong Derby is within his scope.

6) PREVALENCE (c, Medaglia d'Oro—Enrichment, by Ghostzapper)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $25,800.
Last Start: 1st Maiden Special Weight, GP, Jan. 23
Next Start: Uncommitted
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

Prevalence is one of three Godolphin homebreds currently ranked within the Top 12. This Medaglia d'Oro-sired 'TDN Rising Star' is the only one based in Florida though, so it would seem that the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. could be his next start. That would work out to five weeks between races and keep him geographically separated from Godolphin's other two top sophs, Essential Quality and Proxy (Tapit), who appear bound for the Southwest S. and Risen Star S., respectively. The 89-Beyer MSW debut for Prevalence on the Pegasus undercard a week and a half ago at Gulfstream still resonates as a “Wow!” effort, both for how this colt won it (by 8 1/2 geared-down lengths after dominating a five-way fight for the lead) and the well-intended colts whom he beat (Justify's half-brother and a $1.05-million KEESEP buy).

7) MIDNIGHT BOURBON (c, Tiznow–Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $525,000 ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 5-2-1-2, $221,420.
Last Start: 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16
Next Start: GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Accomplishments: 3rd GI Champagne S., 2nd GIII Iroquois S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 16.

Trainer Steve Asmussen indicated after Midnight Bourbon's 91-Beyer wiring of the GII Lecomte S. that win that he'd like to keep this $525,000 KEESEP colt in New Orleans to try and sweep the Risen Star S. and GII Louisiana Derby en route to a berth in Louisville. Those were the same races that Midnight Bourbon's half-brother, Girvin, won for different connections in 2017 prior to a trip-troubled 13th in the Kentucky Derby. Although Girvin benefitted from weak renewals of those Fair Grounds stakes, he did mature into a level-headed sophomore who could handle multiple levels of in-race pressure, which is something that Midnight Bourbon still must prove, because his Lecomte score had an “everything his own way” flavor to it. Three horses have swept the Lecomte, Risen Star, and Louisiana Derby: International Star in 2015 was the most recent, but he did not did not start in the Kentucky Derby. Friesan Fire swept the series in 2009 prior to running 18th in the Derby. Dixieland Heat won all three New Orleans races in 1993, and then (underscoring that he raced in a very different era) additionally ran third in the GII Blue Grass S. prior to finishing 12th in the Derby.

8) PROXY (c, Tapit–Panty Raid, by Include)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Michael Stidham. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-2-2-0, $107,700.
Last Start: 2nd GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16
Next Start: Possible for GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 4.

Proxy isn't one of those colts whose past performances leap out at you as a top-tier Derby candidate, but he does have the look and feel of the type of contender capable of quietly rounding into form and sneaking up on everybody by the first Saturday in May. He got first run at a loose leader in the Lecomte S., and while he did not win, this Tapit homebred for Godolphin prevailed in the “race within the race” for second. Proxy's previous two Fair Grounds victories were on the lead, so he's no longer so one-dimensional, tactics-wise, and he'll bring four races of two-turn experience into the Risen Star S. if his connections opt for that spot. Proxy's pedigree has a versatile, distance-centric slant: In 2007, his dam, Panty Raid, won the GI American Oaks Invitational S. at 10 furlongs on the turf, the GI Spinster S. at nine furlongs on a synthetic track, and the GII Black-Eyed Susan S. at nine furlongs on dirt.

9) HIGHLY MOTIVATED (c, Into Mischief–Strong Incentive, by Warrior's Reward)
O/B-Klaravich Stables, Inc (KY). T-Chad Brown. Sales History: $240,000 wlg '18 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-2-1-0, $124,050.
Last Start: 1st Nyquist S., KEE, Nov. 6
Next Start: GIII Gotham S., AQU, Mar. 6
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

Highly Motivated breezed a half mile in :49:20 (9/35) Saturday at Payson Park, one day after trainer Chad Brown disclosed the colt's 2021 debut will be in the GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct Mar. 6. This $240,000 KEENOV Into Mischief colt needed patient handling after emerging “a little stiff” from his Nov. 6 track-record-setting Nyquist S. score, Brown told DRF.com. “I gave him a little extra time, and that put me behind a little bit,” he said. “I approached him like I have some of these other horses that I have, in that I don't want to run him too much before the Derby because if they're not good enough I want to have the rest of the year.” Highly Motivated has yet to race beyond 6 1/2 furlongs, so the one-turn-mile is a natural progression. But if he runs well enough to remain under consideration for a two-prep path to Louisville, that means Highly Motivated will go into the Derby with (most likely) only one two-turn race under his belt. The betting public let Highly Motivated drift to 24-1 in last week's Pool 2 of the Derby Future Wager after an 18-1 opening back in November.

10) MEDINA SPIRIT (c, Protonico–Mongolian Changa, by Briliant Speed)
O-Zedan Racing Stables. B-Gail Rice (FL). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $1,000 ylg '19 OBSWIN; $35,000 2yo '20 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $105,200.
Last Start: 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30
Next Start: Uncommitted
Accomplishments: 2nd GIII Sham S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 14.

Medina Spirit's 91-Beyer GIII Lewis S. score on Saturday rates as one of the grittiest winning runs on the Derby trail this season. Seizing the lead from the rail, he took heat on the front end in a three-way go while drilling splits of :22.89 and :46.61, looked like he might be cooked at the quarter pole when two fresh closers barreled at him from off the pace, then dug in and never once relinquished the lead in a stretch battle that had him a neck in front in a three-way photo. “That reminded me a little bit of [1997 Derby winner] Silver Charm,” trainer Bob Baffert said post-race. “He had every reason to give it up late down the stretch [when] those horses came to him; I thought he was beat. I thought they were going to get by and he wouldn't let them by. He fought on. He really is not as tired as I thought he would be. He got caught up in the speed duel. We were afraid about the one hole and I was hoping he could just back off a little bit … He's going to get a lot out of this race, but I think you have to take him pretty seriously now.”

11) MANDALOUN (c, Into Mischief–Brooch, by Empire Maker)
O/B-Juddmonte Farms Inc. (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSP, 3-2-0-1, $111,252.
Last Start: 3rd GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16
Next Start: GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 2.

Trainer Brad Cox said last week that he was going to equip 'TDN Rising Star' Mandaloun with blinkers for a Saturday half-mile work that clocked in :48.20 (2/99), and that this 2-for-3 colt would wear them when he next starts in the Risen Star S. on Feb. 13. The beaten 4-5 fave when three wide around both turns behind a tepid pace in the Lecomte S., this Juddmonte homebred by Into Mischief now has to scramble a bit to regain Derby relevance. Speaking on “At the Races with Steve Byk,” Cox said that coming back on four weeks of rest with an elite-level sophomore is “something I'm not wild about, but at the end of the day, when a 3-year-old is on the Derby trail, you've got to push him along a little more.” Mandaloun displayed good fighting instincts when crashing through heavy traffic to break his maiden, and ranged up threateningly after stalking the leaders in his allowance score. But he had to be ridden with vigor in both of those races to uncork his best rally, and his subpar third in the Lecomte lacked a similar display of self-confidence. Perhaps the blinkers will offer a different perspective.

12) KEEPMEINMIND (c, Laoban–Inclination, by Victory Gallop)
O-Cypress Creek LLC & Arnold Bennewith. B-Southern Equine Stables, LLC (KY). T-Robertino Diodoro. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 4-1-2-1, $394,320.
Last Start: 1st GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., CD, Nov. 28
Accomplishments: 2nd GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity,
3rd GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Next Start: GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 15.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 18.

This Laoban bay will celebrate his Feb. 8 foaling birthdate prior to his next start in the Southwest S. at Oaklawn. As a maiden, Keepmeinmind ran second and third behind No. 1-ranked Essential Quality in to Grade I stakes, beaten only 5 ¼ combined lengths. He then went off favored in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., and his rally from last to collar a tiring leader was notable for how much lateral movement he made while trying to pick a spot at the back of the pack (three wide first turn, six deep entering backstretch, then down to the rail and gradually out to the seven path turning for home). The effort produced one of the weaker stakes Beyers (80) on this year's Derby trail, and it clocked .54 seconds slower than 2-year-old fillies covered the same 1 1/16 miles distance in the GII Golden Rod S. earlier on that same card. But this off-pace specialist will benefit from any sort of speed setup that might occur in the Southwest, and any progress in his 2021 debut should not be judged so much by whether or not he wins the race but by how he finishes. This guy could be a slow-developing surprise.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Freedom Fighter (Violence): Away since wiring Aug. 1 Del Mar debut for Baffert as 1-2 fave. Listed by Santa Anita as “possible” for Saturday's GII San Vicente Stakes.

Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow): Half to 2019 sprint champ Mitole ($17,000 FTKFEB; $110,000 FTKOCT) stumbled at break of Lewis S. and took bumping in deep stretch when rallying capably for third in three-way photo. That was his first race back off 94-1 second in the Breeders' Cup.

Prime Factor (Quality Road): This 'TDN Rising Star' is relegated out of the Top 12 after a no-excuse third in the Holy Bull S. in which he stalked two long-shot pacemakers and never fired when called upon for run. Fellow Todd Pletcher-trained stablemate Likeable (Frosted) also lost his standing within the Top 12 after running up on heels and coming up empty in the GIII Swale S.

Roman Centurian (Empire Maker): Nice try first time against winners when rallying from last and beaten only a neck in the Lewis S. over a tiring, drying-out track.

Tarantino (Pioneerof the Nile): Eye-catching 26-1 effort in Holy Bull S. on Saturday. Hustled for lead, attended pace, put nose in front three-eighths out, got inhaled by stalkers but stayed on with purpose to regain second.

The post The TDN Derby Top 12 for February 2 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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