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Bell’s the One Gearing Up For Return

Lothenbach Stables' Bell's the One (Majesticperfection), who became the first Grade I winner for trainer Neil Pessin in last year's Derby City Distaff ahead of a third-place effort to champion 'TDN Rising Star' Gamine (Into Mischief) in the GI Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, breezed five furlongs in 1:00.60 (9/36) at the Fair Grounds Feb. 28. Pessin confirmed that the GI Madison S. at Keeneland Apr. 4, in which his charge was a pace-compromised third in the coronavirus-delayed 2020 renewal last July, is the jumping-off spot for the mare's 5-year-old campaign.

“She's doing very well and we are right on schedule to run at Keeneland,” the affable conditioner said Monday from New Orleans.

Following the Filly & Mare Sprint, where she was beaten by the nose of Serengeti Empress (Alternation) for second, Bell's the One was turned out for six weeks at Chesapeake Farm in Lexington. Pessin said she arrived at the Fair Grounds in early January, galloped for about a month and has turned in four breezes since.

“She's on a weekly training schedule, just depends on the weather and the track,” Pessin said. “We're pretty happy with where we are right now, so we do have some flexibility if needed. I'm not on a tight schedule. She'll be ready to rock and roll when Keeneland comes around.”

The trainer has no reservations about training up to the Madison.

“Very,” he said when asked about his level of confidence running in the Madison without a prep. “I have a lot of confidence in her. I'll be honest with you, if my filly runs her race–there has to be a little bit of a pace set-up for her at Keeneland–but with any sort of pace whatsoever, she ought to be tough. I don't think Gamine is coming and I'm really not worried about anything else.”

Pessin has never been one to rack up big numbers, but my any metric, 2020 was a banner year, with a victory in the GIII Winning Colors S. over an insufficient six-furlong trip in addition to the Derby City Distaff, where she got just the better of Serengeti Empress following a final-furlong throwdown.

“Well, winning the Derby City Distaff was nice, especially the fashion we did it,” he said. “Breeders' Cup, if we'd have been second–we had to wait a little bit turning for home and I think it cost us the nose. But with that being said, she ran a big race.

He continued, “Overall, having a horse like her in the barn is very exciting, makes you want to get up in the morning. I do wish she'd have been a finalist in the [Eclipse] balloting, because I do think she belonged on the list. We ran against Serengeti [Empress] twice, we beat her a nose and she beat us a nose. I feel we could have beaten her in the Breeders' Cup with a little more luck. I hope we get a shot to win one or two more Grade Is this year and she stays healthy and everything goes well.”

As for the rest of this year, Pessin said that the team will chart a course backwards from this year's Filly & Mare Sprint at Del Mar Nov. 6 following her first two starts. From there, her future remains an open question.

“I would say it depends on how healthy she stays and how well she runs,” Pessin said. “Bob breeds his own, but that doesn't necessarily mean she'll go straight to the breeding shed when this year is over.

“I want to do whatever is best for her,” Pessin added. “If I think she is 100% good to go for another year, then it'd be up to Bob and [racing manager] Drew [Nardiello] whether to race her or not. But I won't race her unless she's 100%.”

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Million-Dollar Matings

The fireworks at the annual Keeneland and Fasig-Tipton November sales are always a highlight of the year as seven-figure bids abound on some of racing's top broodmares and broodmare prospects. But after the dust settles, it can be years before words get out on the breeding careers of the sales' top offerings. We catch up with the connections of a few of these most recent million-dollar broodmares and learn of their mating plans for 2021 in our ongoing 'Million-Dollar Matings' series.

CONSTELLATION (Bellamy Road-For Royalty, by Not For Love)

Sale: 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale

Purchaser/Owner: Don Alberto Corporation

Produce Record: 2019 Curlin colt, 2021 Into Mischief filly

2021 Booking: Quality Road

Offered carrying her first foal by Curlin, Grade I winner and 'TDN Rising Star' Constellation was purchased for $3.15 million by the Don Alberto Corporation at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

Her Curlin colt would go on to sell for $250,000 to Repole Stables and St. Elias Stables at last year's Keeneland September Sale.

After visiting Into Mischief but failing to produce a foal in her first year with Don Alberto, she was bred back to the Spendthrift sire last year.

Don Alberto's former Executive Director Fabricio Buffolo reported that Constellation foaled her Into Mischief filly on Jan. 31.

“We are extremely happy that she had a nice, robust filly,” he said. “She has been developing well. You can tell that she has all the parts there to turn into a nice filly as she grows.”

Buffolo said that Constellation will be bred to Quality Road this year.

“It will be interesting to see how she will produce with a horse like him with more scope and size,” he noted. “It's all about getting to know the mares and how they produce and it's a mating that has some contrasts on the physical aspect, which sometimes can be rewarding. Bellamy Road has only three blacktype winners as a broodmares sire and all three are from Mr. Prospector-line stallions.”

After a 'Rising Star'-worthy debut win as a juvenile for LNJ Foxwoods, Constellation ran in the money in her next two graded starts before capping off her 2-year-old season with a win in the Furlough S. As a sophomore, she added two more stakes wins before taking the GI La Brea S. At four, the chestnut ran second in four straight graded races including the GI Madison S. at Keeneland.

CALEDONIA ROAD (Quality Road-Come A Callin, by Dixie Union)

Sale: 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale

Purchaser/Owner: Narvick International

Produce Record: 2020 Justify filly, 2021 Justify colt

2021 Booking: Kizuna (Jpn)

Eclipse Champion Caledonia Road was purchased by agent Emmanuel de Seroux of Narvick International for $2.3 million at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

The million-dollar earner was bred to Justify as a maiden and produced a filly in January last year. De Seroux reported that the filly is “doing great” at the Ito family's Grand Farm in Japan, where Caledonia Road also resides.

The mare was bred back to Justify and foaled a colt on Jan. 27 this year.

“He's reported to be a very good foal,” de Seroux said.

This year, Caledonia Road will visit champion Kizuna, a son of the late influential Japanese sire Deep Impact and the leading Japanese freshman sire in 2019.

Trained by Ralph Nicks, Caledonia Road won on debut and ran second in the GI Frizette S. before taking the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Filles to win Eclipse honors for Champion 2-Year-Old Filly in 2017. She is a half-sister to stakes winner One of a Kind (Lemon Drop Kid) and hails from the family of Grade I winners Data Link (War Front) and Hymn Book (Arch).

CATHRYN SOPHIA (Street Boss-Sheave, by Mineshaft)

Sale: 2017 Keeneland November Sale

Purchaser/Owner: Bridlewood Farm and Don Alberto

Produce Record: 2018 Pioneerof the Nile filly, 2019 Medaglia d'Oro filly, 2020 Into Mischief colt. In foal to Curlin.

2021 Booking: None

One year after Bridlewood Farm and Don Alberto partnered up to buy a sales-topping Baffled (Distorted Humor) for $3.5 million, the same duo went to $2.3 million at the 2017 Keeneland November Sale to purchase 'TDN Rising Star' Cathryn Sophia. The 2016 Oaks heroine was carrying her first foal by Pioneerof the Nile.

The Pioneerof the Nile filly, now named Mezcal, was purchased for $625,000 at the 2019 Keeneland September Sale by Bobby Flay, but does not yet have any recorded works or starts.

Cathryn Sophia produced a Medaglia d'Oro filly in 2019 and last year, foaled an Into Mischief colt in May.

“He is a late foal that has developed so well over the last few months,” said Don Alberto's Fabricio Buffolo. “He is a strong individual and typical of what you expect of the sire.”

Buffolo reported that this year, Cathryn Sophia is in foal to Curlin. A similar mating proved successful when the Hill 'n' Dale sire produced champion and young sire Vino Rosso with a Street Cry (Ire) mare.

Because Cathryn Sophia's Curlin foal is expected to arrive late, Buffolo said that she will take a year off this year.

Purchased as a yearling by Cash Is King LLC and trained by John Servis, Cathryn Sophia broke her maiden on debut by 12 3/4 lengths before crushing the competition in the Gin Talking S. by 16 1/4 lengths in her next start. She won her sophomore debut in the GII Forward Gal. and maintained the undefeated streak in the GII Davona Dale S. After a third-place finish in the GI Ashland S., the Maryland-bred scored a victory in the GI Kentucky Oaks. In the later half of her sophomore season, she ran third in both the GI Acorn S. and GI Cotillion S. and caught a win in the Princess of Sylmar S.

Cathryn Sophia was offered at the 2016 Fasig-Tipton November Sale as a broodmare or racing prospect and sold to SF Bloodstock for $1.4 million. It was announced a month later that she would retire from racing, and she returned to the sales ring a year later in foal to Pioneerof the Nile.

GALILEO GAL (Galileo (Ire)-Alpha Lupi (Ire), by Rahy)

Sale: 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale

Purchaser/Owner: Craig Bernick

Produce Record: 2020 Kingman (GB) filly. In foal to Lope de Vega (Ire).

2021 Booking: Kingman (GB)

The regally-bred Galileo Gal was offered at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale. Watch out feature leading up to the sale here. She was purchased by Craig Bernick for $1.4 million.

She was sent to Norelands Stud in Ireland and was first bred to Juddmonte's hot young sire Kingman.

That mating produced a filly that is now a yearling.

“We are happy with [her],” Bernick said. “Our plan is to put her into training with Jessica Harrington next year.”

Galileo Gal was next bred to Ballylinch Stud's Lope de Vega (Ire) and Bernick reported that she is expected to foal any day now. She will return to Kingman later this year.

Bred by the Niarchos family, Galileo Gal was purchased by Gary Barber as a yearling and brought to race in North America, where she was a winner at three and four. The chestnut is a half-sister to champion and four-time Group 1 winner Alpha Centauri (Ire) (Mastercraftsman {Ire}), as well a second G1 Coronation S. winner in Alpine Star (Ire) (Sea the Moon {Ger}) and stakes winner Tenth Star (Ire) (Dansili {GB}). Her family includes several other champions in Miesque (Nureyev), East of the Moon (Private Account) and Rumplestiltskin (Ire) (Danehill), as well as Group 1 winners and sires Kingmambo (Mr. Prospector) and Karakontie (Jpn) (Bernstein).

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Letters to the Editor: On the 140-Mare Cap

There is no simple answer to the question of whether or not it is in the interests of breeders in the United States to limit the number of mares any stallion can cover. However, we can be certain that none of the relevant arguments should be concerned with questions of free markets. Not even the most dogmatic of believers in the efficiency of free markets would, after a moment's reflection, consider the market for stallion seasons to have the appropriate characteristics.

A free market is one in which no one player, on either the supply or demand side, holds a dominant position, and it is also one in which all the relevant information is available freely to both buyers and sellers. In the stallion market, there are of course players who hold a dominant position and these and others have always resisted attempts to create a more open market where everybody is aware of changes in prices and supply. More often than not, when you sign the contract for a stallion season, you are not entirely sure of either how many mares the stallion in question will cover, nor the exact price paid by other breeders using the same horse. This is not a criticism; it is simply the way markets function without regulation. The players in any market will of course try to maximize their rent or return without considering the interests of all the other participants. For a market to be and to remain free there have to be rules.

Once it became technically and physically possible for stallions to cover successfully anything up to and beyond 200 mares during the spring covering season it was inevitable that many stallion owners would chose to do so. Particularly as almost as immediately it become clear that the demand for seasons to successful and popular stallions is inelastic to both price and supply. The market for stallion seasons is not at all similar to those for ordinary agricultural products, where you expect demand to fall when the price rises and for prices to fall if there is an expansion of supply. We have seen many examples in both the United States and Europe showing that when a stallion is commercially hot, demand for seasons is almost limitless, whatever the price and the number of mares due to be covered.

The market for stallion seasons resembles those for luxury goods. To begin to understand the way it works you have to think about top of the range handbags rather than grain or potatoes.

Once a handbag acquires the status of a symbol, the more expensive it is, the most desirable it becomes and the more often it appears on the shoulders of the right people, the more others want to have it on theirs. The peak satisfaction comes at the moment of purchase, the instant when you join the club of those who have it. The thrill lingers on, but in many cases, it will not be quite so exquisite in the future. For every product, there will probably be a price and a supply which is just too much, but in both cases, experience has taught that it is higher and bigger than anyone would have thought possible viewing through the prism of utility or efficiency.

In the early days, many thought that big stallion books would be a passing phase. Commercial breeders would soon realize that it was not in their interests to pay a lot of money for a season only to go to the sales to compete with anything up to 100 other yearlings by the same sire. This again was a misconception as breeders, as much as those who buy yearlings, are searching for a dream. Most breeders sign the contract avidly, aware of the competition ahead, but confident that their mating will produce one of the best by the sire who will shine in the sales ring and on the track afterwards.

Given the nature of the market, does it make sense to restrict the number of seasons offered to any stallion? After all, few would suggest that Hermes should be allowed to make only a certain number of its most sought after handbags, even if the number any customer is allowed to buy is limited. There are probably two sides to any attempt to answer. The proposed limitation will surely open up the market to a wider range of both horses and people who stand them. Some of the mares covered in the past by the most popular sires will instead be covered by others. The business will not be lost, but will be spread over more sires with different owners. The bloodstock market consistently fails to select the best stallions when they first go to stud. From Tapit, Into Mischief or War Front to Dubawi, Galileo and Siyouni in Europe, the best sires are rarely rated at the top of their generation when they start out on their stud career. For this reason alone, any regulation which forces breeders to try a wider selection of new stallions will probably be beneficial for everybody in the medium run. And then by lowering the barriers to entry and the advantages of the established farms, it will also encourage new stallion owners and farms to enter the business.

The second part of the argument concerns the long or medium term effect of concentrating breeding on an ever smaller selection of elite sires. No genetic test is ever going to resolve this conundrum as nobody knows for sure exactly which physical and mental characteristics allow one horse to run faster than another. In some ways breeding has its own built in adjustments as the future will never be a repeat of the recent past. The success of one super-sire will on its own change the type of mare likely to be successful in the future. As the breed itself is continually changing, and so are the type of sire and mare most likely to succeed.

However, anybody who has worked on matings knows there is already a problem of inbreeding with Thoroughbreds, particularly in Europe, and this is a one which is going to get worse as books of 150+ mares have only become common relatively recently. A look at the Thoroughbreds' past suggests that excessive inbreeding will throw up a few superior individuals, but will also create weaknesses and failures of both physical and mental characteristics. Successful breeders are always thinking about future generations and if the market is pushing in one direction nudging breeders towards prudence and variety will probably help everybody in the medium term.

One possible compromise would be to restrict the number of mares any stallion can cover during its first five seasons at stud, while allowing the handful of sires who are still popular and sought after at this point in their careers to cover more. This way, you could push breeders to try a broader selection of sires, while allowing the owners of those who prove to be the best to maximize their return.

No organization is in a position to contemplate imposing similar restrictions in Europe. If The Jockey Club succeeds in doing so, breeders from all over the world will of course, be following the experiment.

–Jocelyn de Moubray

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The TDN Derby Top 12 for Mar. 2

We're now past the unofficial “Justify cutoff” of Feb. 18, which represents the latest maiden-breaking date of any GI Kentucky Derby winner. That means it's extremely likely we've already seen the 2021 winner in action, but it doesn't necessarily mean the Derby winner is ranked within this edition of the Top 12. This list represents the top of the crop while leaving speculation open to longshot Derby dreamers inside the 10-week mark to the first Saturday in May.

1) GREATEST HONOUR (c, Tapit–Tiffany's Honour, by Street Cry {Ire})
O/B-Courtlandt Farms (KY). T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-3-1-2, $351,940.
Last Start: 1st GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments: 1st GIII Holy Bull S.
Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27

Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 60.

March opens with a new kingpin atop the sophomore totem pole. Greatest Honour edged out fellow Tapit-sired Essential Quality based on the visually arresting nature of his GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth score, which left the impression this long-striding colt has the potential to be scary-good at Classic distances. After losing all momentum on the far turn when his back end clipped with an outside horse, this Courtlandt Farms homebred uncorked a devastating late run despite a 1 1/16-mile configuration at Gulfstream that does not favor off-the-tailgate tactics. Greatest Honour also got pelted with kickback while pinned down on the rail for most of the race, yet finished up with authority even though he was a good five lengths behind with a furlong left.

“He didn't get anything perfect [trip-wise] and he came back and won,” trainer Shug McGaughey said Sunday, underscoring the GI Curlin Florida Derby is next. “He was doing something he didn't want to do–to run 1 1/16 miles over this racetrack with the short pole. I'm just glad I don't have to do that anymore…. Now we have longer races in front of us.”

There are some “con” points about Greatest Honour's “pro” performance that merit consideration: The pacemaker he reeled in was definitely tiring, and no one else was truly firing. And the 89 Beyer Speed Figure he earned was the same as in his last win a month ago, so no uptick there. Plus, it's always dangerous to fall in love with a closer for the Derby, because large-framed horses who make one sustained run from the back frequently need to get lucky trip-wise in a bulky 20-horse field.

2) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt & MGISW, 4-4-0-0, $1,785,144.
Last Start: 1st GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 40.

After being delayed two weeks because of adverse weather, the 3-year-old debut of the undefeated juvenile champ ended up being worth the wait. This Tapit-sired 'TDN Rising Star' continues to march forward on the progression arc, and his 4 1/4-length GIII Southwest S. smackdown in the Oaklawn slop showcased the high-caliber stalking skills this homebred for Godolphin flashed last autumn en route to a GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile victory. When second favorite Jackie's Warrior (Maclean's Music) slowed down the half-mile split to :48.11, it was apparent that favored “EQ” would have to earn his win. The into-the-bit champ wanted to pull down the backstretch, but jockey Luis Saez instead schooled EQ to edge forward incrementally. You could tell this colt was “getting it” by how EQ attained and released each target before zeroing in on the distance-challenged pacemaker. He then swatted away a fresh stretch challenge in the form of late-striding Spielberg (Union Rags). Still, EQ is going to have to overcome one daunting historical obstacle: The forebodingly low 2-for-36 strike rate of Juvenile winners in the Derby. And while EQ earned a 96 Beyer for his Southwest win, that's only a one-point progression off his best 2-year-old race. In fact, 10 horses have now run back out of the Juvenile, and EQ is the only one of the top nine finishers to (barely) post an improved next-out Beyer. With the exception of the 12th- and 13th-place finishers, everyone else he beat back in November regressed, numbers-wise, signaling that race's field might not be as strong as it first seemed. The GII Toyota Blue Grass S. and the GI Arkansas Derby are next-start considerations.

3) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: SW, 4-2-2-0, $166,092. Last Start: 1st Smarty Jones S., OP, Jan. 22.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Usually you hear about horses traveling to Oaklawn to avoid nasty winter weather and not the other way around, but 'TDN Rising Star' Caddo River is the exception. With divisions at multiple tracks, trainer Brad Cox had the flexibility to ship this Hard Spun homebred for Shortleaf Stable from Hot Springs to New Orleans Feb. 11 to avoid the freeze that cost Oaklawn 11 days of training. Cox said Sunday this front-running force will remain at Fair Grounds to train up to the Mar. 13 GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn, a race in which he figures to go off favored (with no other Top 12 contenders committed as of this writing). The ability to nimbly reach a high-cruising speed and withstand legit pace pressure are this colt's twin strengths. But Cox indicated Sunday he's already thinking a bit further ahead in terms of how many Derby qualifying points this 2-for-4 winner (by a combined 19 1/2 lengths) might need to be certain of a spot in the field.

“Caddo River's the one that's going to have to step up in a points race and pick off some points,” Cox said.

Right now he's ranked 18th with 10 points; the Rebel offers 85 (50-20-10-5).

4) LIFE IS GOOD (c, Into Mischief–Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor)
O-CHC Inc & WinStar Farm LLC. B-Gary & Mary West Stable (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $525,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $94,200.
Last Start: 1st GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 2
Next Start: GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

'TDN Rising Star' Life Is Good will be heavily favored to win Saturday's GII San Felipe S. (entries Wednesday), a race that has reliably produced at least one Kentucky Derby starter from each of its last 12 runnings and in an ultra-impressive 31 of the last 32. During that time, eight San Felipe participants went on to win the Derby (Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Fusaichi Pegasus, Giacomo, California Chrome and Authentic), and nine others ran second or third in Louisville.

This $525,000 KEESEP Into Mischief bay has flaunted nothing but “1s” in the past performances of his two wire-to-wire lifetime wins, and the 101 Beyer Speed Figure this 'TDN Rising Star' earned in the Jan. 2 GIII Sham S. remains the only triple-digit number posted by a 3-year-old to this point in the season.

Life is Good worked six furlongs handily Sunday at Santa Anita in 1:12.20 (1/3).

“He went well,” trainer Bob Baffert said after the drill. “I'm happy. We're all set.”

5) MANDALOUN (c, Into Mischief–Brooch, by Empire Maker)
O/B-Juddmonte Farms Inc. (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-1, $351,252.
Last Start: 1st GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 3rd GIII Lecomte S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 52.

Mandaloun's Beyer Speed Figure leapt forward to a 98 with the addition of a one-inch blinker cup when winning the GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds (initially that represented a nine-point jump, but his GIII Lecomte S. Beyer has since been readjusted upward from an 89 to a 91).

Trainer Brad Cox is now aiming this Into Mischief-sired Juddmonte homebred for the GII Louisiana Derby, and if Mandaloun retains his newfound focus, he looms as a legit favorite. He was into the bit early and three wide on both bends in the Risen Star, then went on the prowl 7/16ths out and held sway in a prolonged stretch drive that featured a four-horse fight. This 'TDN Rising Star' needed assertive handling in the late stages of his races at age two, but part of the maturing process on the Derby trail involves teaching A-level colts to fire before all-out urging is required to finish the task.

6) PROXY (c, Tapit–Panty Raid, by Include)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Michael Stidham. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 5-2-3-0, $187,700.
Last Start: 2nd GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 2nd GIII Lecomte S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 24.

In this space one month ago, Proxy was flagged as the type of colt who doesn't jump out at you as an obvious top-tier contender. Even after his running-in-spots second-place try in the Risen Star, I stand by that assessment. Because based on his breeding (by Tapit out of an Include mare) and his patient connections (homebred by Godolphin and trained by Michael Stidham), Proxy has all the makings of a horse who quietly accrues qualifying points without an exclamation-point race, but then suddenly looks like a “live” wiseguy play as he rounds into peak form during Derby week.

Stidham said after the Risen Star he'd be experimenting with blinkers, and in Proxy's first work back since his last race, he bullet-breezed a half mile Friday at Fair Grounds in :47.00 (1/40).

Check out the surface versatility in Proxy's immediate pedigree: In 2007, his dam, Panty Raid, won the GI American Oaks Invitational S. at 10 furlongs on the turf, the GI Spinster S. at nine furlongs on a synthetic track, and the GII Black-Eyed Susan S. at nine furlongs on dirt.

7) MEDINA SPIRIT (c, Protonico–Mongolian Changa, by Briliant Speed)
O-Zedan Racing Stables. B-Gail Rice (FL). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $1,000 ylg '19 OBSWIN; $35,000 2yo '20 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $105,200.
Last Start: 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30
Next Start: GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6
Accomplishments: 2nd GIII Sham S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 14.

Overachiever Medina Spirit, a Protonico colt who sold for $1,000 at OBSWIN and $35,000 OBSOPN, was greenlighted to start in Saturday's San Felipe S. by trainer Bob Baffert. And the big news (unless you're jockey Abel Cedillo, who did an admirable job with this colt for his first three races) is that John Velazquez has committed to the mount after partnering with Baffert and Authentic to win the 2020 Derby.

Medina Spirit initially outworked more expensive and better-bred horses when he first arrived at the Baffert barn, and even though highly ranked Life Is Good bested him as expected in several morning moves, Medina Spirit was not disgraced, and even rallied to finish just three-quarters of a length behind that 1-5 favored stablemate in the GIII Sham S.

Medina Sprit rebounded off that try to win a length-of-stretch brawl in the GIII Robert B. Lewis S. after taking heat on the front end and prevailing by a neck in a three-way photo, prompting Baffert to quip “That reminded me a little bit of Silver Charm,” Baffert's 1997 Derby winner who similarly was not an overly expensive OBS-sold colt ($16,500 OBSAUG yearling, $100,000 OBSAPR).

8) CANDY MAN ROCKET (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Kenny Lane, by Forestry)
O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc; B-R S Evans (KY). T-Bill Mott. Sales History: $190,000 RNA wlg '18 KEENOV; $70,000 RNA yrl '19 KEESEP; $250,000 2yo '20 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-0-0, $144,824.
Last Start: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis S., TAM, Feb. 6
Next Start: GII Tampa Bay Derby, Tam, Mar. 6
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Candy Man Rocket will headline the GII Tampa Bay Derby for trainer Bill Mott based on the colt's 85-Beyer win in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. Feb. 6. This three-time auction entrant–RNA'd for $190,000 (KEENOV) and $70,000 (KEESEP) prior to hammering for $250,000 (OBSAPR)–breezed a bullet half mile at Payson Park Sunday in :48.60 (1/36).

“He was on his own, he went well and I'm very pleased with him. He looked as smooth as silk,” Mott said. “He is a good work horse anyway, but I liked the way he did it. The [Tampa Bay Derby] has been on our minds since he won the Sam F. Davis. Any time you get a horse that runs well over that racetrack, you have to give it consideration.”

But an affinity for Tampa's sandy, banked-turn surface does not always translate to success in Louisville. In the 40-year history of the track's signature race, the only horse to parlay the Tampa/Kentucky Derby double was Street Sense in 2007; Super Saver, third in 2010, was the only other Tampa Bay Derby starter to win the Kentucky Derby.

9) SPIELBERG (c, Union Rags–Miss Squeal, by Smart Strike)
O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Golconda Stables, Siena Farm LLC, & Robert Masterson. B-G Watts Humphrey Jr (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $1,000,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 8-2-3-1, $413,200.
Last Start: 2nd GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Accomplishments: 1st GII Los Alamitos Futurity, 2nd GI Runhappy Del Mar Futurity, 3rd GI American Pharoah S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 17.

Spielberg's second at 7-1 behind champ Essential Quality in the GIII Southwest S. was a decent enough effort to give him some momentum and confidence going into the nine-furlong territory of the Derby trail. This $1-million KEESEP colt by Union Rags was unprepared and ducked out at the break, then got nudged four wide on the clubhouse bend while relegated to last.

“I put him in the race [and] just followed the winner every step. When I asked him, he went, but the winner was already being asked. I think my horse will be better at 1 1/8 miles,” said jockey Martin Garcia.

Spielberg had been an enigma prior to the Southwest, alternating wins and fourth-place finishes since Nov. 1. His long drive won the GII Los Alamitos Futurity by a nose, but he was all out to reel in a tiring 33-1 maiden. He subsequently finished 11 lengths behind the stretch-battling trio that photo'd for the win in the GIII Robert B. Lewis S. Still, this colt now has eight races of experience under his girth and stands a shot at moving up on Baffert's depth chart depending on how the barn's three other Top 12-ranked contenders fare in this Saturday's stakes.

10) PREVALENCE (c, Medaglia d'Oro—Enrichment, by Ghostzapper)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $25,800.
Last Start: 1st Maiden Special Weight, GP, Jan. 23
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

Prevalence missed some February training after spiking a fever, but was back on the work tab Saturday, breezing a half-mile in :48.40 at Palm Meadows (5/73). This Medaglia d'Oro-sired 'TDN Rising Star' won his Jan. 23 Gulfstream debut by 8 1/2 geared-down lengths after sparring through a five-way fight for the lead in a “loaded” seven-furlong MSW, but he's now a touch under the gun in terms of Derby preparedness after missing his shot at either an allowance race or a start in the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S.

This Godolphin homebred will also have to come off of Lasix if he is to enter a Derby-qualifying stakes after racing on it in his 89-Beyer debut. How have Derby aspirants coming off of Lasix fared so far in 2021 under the new system prohibiting that drug's use in points-eligible sophomore stakes? Through 13 prep races since Jan. 1, horses giving up Lasix after using it in their most recent start are a collective 3-for-30 (with three other runners finishing second).

11) FREEDOM FIGHTER (c, Violence–Canadian Ballet, by City Zip)
O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Golconda Stables, Siena Farm LLC, and Robert Masterson. B-Mr & Mrs Troy Reed (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $120,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 2-1-1-0, $73,000.
Last Start: 2nd GII San Vicente S., SA, Feb. 6
Next Start: GIII Gotham S., AQU, Mar. 6.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

The final two horses within the Top 12 share similarities in that neither has raced beyond one turn and both will meet in Saturday's GIII Gotham S. Mar. 6 at Aqueduct, which is another one-turn affair (mile). This Violence colt out of a City Zip mare ($120,000 KEESEP), really caught the eye when running a better race than winning 2-5 stablemate and 'TDN Rising Star' Concert Tour (Street Sense) in the GII San Vicente S. He blitzed out of the gate, withstood early pressure, then wouldn't quit in the stretch run of his first race since a debut win Aug. 1 at Del Mar. Separated by half a length, the top two both earned 94 Beyers.

Over the past five years, trainer Bob Baffert has sent five shippers to Aqueduct, compiling a 1-2-1 record.

12) HIGHLY MOTIVATED (c, Into Mischief–Strong Incentive, by Warrior's Reward)
O/B-Klaravich Stables, Inc (KY). T-Chad Brown. Sales History: $240,000 wlg '18 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-2-1-0, $124,050.
Last Start: 1st Nyquist S., KEE, Nov. 6
Next Start: GIII Gotham S., AQU, Mar. 6
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

A track-record-setting and key-race winner when last seen on the Breeders' Cup undercard at Keeneland, this $240,000 KEENOV Into Mischief colt will vie with Freedom Fighter for favoritism in Saturday's GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct.

Klaravich Stable bred Highly Motivated after racing his dam (likewise trained by Chad Brown), the seven-furlong black-type stakes winner Strong Incentive. But this colt ended up going through the auction ring because Klaravich was buying out a partner who co-owned the weanling.

Authentic's powerhouse wins in the Derby and GI Breeders' Cup Classic last season shored up questions about the ability for Into Mischief's progeny to carry aggressive speed up to 10 furlongs. But this colt's dam-sire, Warrior's Reward, made his mark as a sprinter, registering his lone stakes win at seven furlongs in the 2010 GI Carter H.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Concert Tour (Street Sense): 'TDN Rising Star' will ship to Oaklawn to contest the GII Rebel S., a race that his trainer, Bob Baffert, has won seven times in the previous 12 runnings (including split divisions in 2019). But prior to Nadal's win in 2020, Baffert had saddled the beaten fave in four straight runnings.

Jackie's Warrior (Maclean's Music): After starting his career 4-for-4 with commanding displays of speed in one-turn races, this colt has now tasted defeat in two route tries despite advantageous trips in both. He slowed down the pace on the front end of Saturday's GIII Southwest S., but called it a day by the quarter pole, relegating him outside the Top 12.

Keepmeinmind (Laoban): After going back and forth several times over which February prep race to enter, this colt's connections eventually decided to skip races at both Oaklawn and Fair Grounds and instead wait for the GII Rebel S. This deep closer (formerly ranked No. 12) won the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. with a tepid 80 Beyer, but he'd probably enjoy a tactical advantage if a speed duel percolates on the front end of the Rebel.

Known Agenda (Curlin): Big rebound race on Friday, winning by 11 lengths in a nine-furlong allowance-optional claimer at Gulfstream after a blah fifth in the Feb. 6 GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa. Trainer Todd Pletcher now says the Florida Derby is “definitely in play.”

Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow): Could be the GII Louisiana Derby sleeper. His winning Beyer in the Lecomte S. has subsequently been revised upward from 91 to 93. And did you notice that he galloped out longer and stronger than everyone else after battling to hold third in the Risen Star?

Risk Taking (Medaglia d'Oro): Trainer Chad Brown has a colt who's already won twice over nine furlongs at Aqueduct and remains stabled in New York. He sees no reason to mess with that formula, so this $250,000 KEESEP grad will aim for the 1 1/8-miles Apr. 3 GII Wood Memorial S.

The post The TDN Derby Top 12 for Mar. 2 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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