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Post-Racing Opportunities Detailed During IFAR’s Third Session

The third session of the International Forum for the Aftercare of Racehorses' (IFAR) virtual conference series concluded Tuesday following speeches on the various paths for Thoroughbreds in different countries at the conclusion of their racing careers. This session was the third in a series of four webinars that compose the 2021 IFAR Conference.

The webinar, “Global Insights on Aftercare (Aftercare Providers, Equine Charities),” was moderated by Donna Brothers, who is part of the horse racing coverage team for NBC Sports in the United States. The list of speakers consisted of Stacie Clark, operations consultant, Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (U.S.); Lisa Coffey, founder and director, Racing Hearts (AUS); John Osborne, director of Equine Welfare and Bloodstock, Horse Racing Ireland; Dr. Ignacio Pavlovsky, veterinarian, owner, and breeder (ARG); and Kristin Werner, senior counsel, The Jockey Club, and administrator, Thoroughbred Incentive Program (U.S.).

The 2021 IFAR Conference concludes Apr. 27 with a final panel, “Aftercare for Racing Industry Participants: Owners, Breeders, and Trainers.”

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Cezanne Brings New Honor to Storied Family

While it remains too early to acclaim a masterpiece in the making, even these first, bold brushstrokes have plainly been mixed from an unusually vivid genetic palette. And if Cezanne (Curlin) can complete the canvas the way he has started, with a confident new flourish in the GIII Kona Gold S. last weekend, then he could become an exhibit for one of the principal galleries of the modern breed.

Happily it has the most discerning of curators in John Sikura, who has been devotedly cultivating this family–Cezanne's third dam is the celebrated Better Than Honour (Deputy Minister)–since the turn of the century. Sikura's Hill 'n' Dale Farm co-bred Cezanne with St. Elias Stable, whose owner Vinnie Viola retained a stake alongside the Coolmore partners when the colt topped the Gulfstream Sale of 2019 at $3.65 million.

Poignantly, that proved to be the parting bow of Viola's great friend Jimmy Crupi, who passed away shortly after preparing Cezanne for the sale. And the horse who hurtled :10 flat that week himself appeared to go into mourning, not making his debut for Bob Baffert for over a year. His first couple of starts proved worth the wait, but after apparently failing to cope with a rise in grade he disappeared again until resurfacing at Santa Anita last Sunday. His performance there suggests that he is now poised to make up for lost time for a family tree that has already blossomed anew this spring through Greatest Honour (Tapit), a grandson of Better Than Honour who retains potential to top the crop despite unfortunately sitting out the Derby.

Cezanne is trying to become one of those horses that makes sense of the way an entire industry strives for viability. He represents principles that need to work out sufficiently often to maintain investment at the highest level, even if it's no less important that other successes appear less accountable. For Sikura (with various partners along the way) has ensured that this royal line has been seeded by the very best broodmare sires: Cezanne is out of a Bernardini mare, herself out of a daughter of Storm Cat. And Better Than Honour's sire, the legendary distaff influence Deputy Minister, is also the damsire of Curlin. As Sikura puts it: “Sort of molasses on top of sugar on top of an artificial sweetener. About as rich as you can make it.”

John Sikura | Keeneland photo

Sikura's original engagement with this family, buying and selling Better Than Honour twice over, is not just familiar but outright historic. First time, she soon passed through his hands: a private purchase from Robert Waxman, in whose silks she had won a Grade II, she was sold on to the Gumberg family's Skara Glen Stables with the proviso that if her first foal proved to be a filly, Sikura would keep her. That proved a turning point, as Better Than Honour delivered a daughter by Storm Cat.

Though she did not make the track until four, Teeming won all three starts after her debut. “She was wonderfully talented, but unsound,” remembers Sikura. “She had superstar ability, and just a magnetic personality: beautiful face, well-made, just an exquisite creature.”

And, as it would turn out, she also had a useful propensity to deliver fillies. But meanwhile her mother was busy upgrading the pedigree, famously giving us consecutive GI Belmont S. winners in Jazil (Seeking the Gold) and Rags to Riches (A.P. Indy) to emulate her own granddam Best in Show (Traffic Judge) as a Broodmare of the Year. So when Mike Moreno of Southern Equine partnered with Sikura, with a brief to seek the best possible mares, their first purchase was Better Than Honour. At that stage, Rags to Riches had been beaten on her solitary juvenile start. By the time the partnership was dissolved, in 2008, Better Than Honour had made herself worth $14 million, a broodmare auction record, for Moreno to buy out Sikura.

Remarkably, Teeming turned out seven winning fillies, most notably Streaming (Smart Strike) who won the GI Hollywood Starlet S. One day Viola enquired if there might be any access into the dynasty. “I don't sell that family,” Sikura replied. “But if I ever do, I'll call you.”

Viola's chance came through Teeming's second daughter, a maiden winner by Bernardini named Achieving. Sikura had raced her in partnership with the late James A. Sapara of Winsong Farm, Alberta, whose share was originally acquired by George Prussin before ultimately being traded on to Viola. By that stage she had three foals on the track, two of them black-type winners including Arabian Hope (Distorted Humor), Group I-placed over a mile in Europe for Godolphin. Viola's esteem for Curlin is well known, so fortunately the mare had a repeat date with Hill 'n' Dale's top gun after delivering Cezanne. The resulting full-sister, now in Florida preparing to join Todd Pletcher, became all the more precious after the premature loss of Achieving.

Curlin at Hill 'n' Dale | Sarah Andrew

“She colicked, it was tragic,” Sikura said. “But you know in this business things won't always follow your plan. My son said, 'Dad, how come only the good horses die?' I said, 'I guess our goal is to be surrounded by good horses. So that means anytime something will go on, it will be an enormous loss.' Of course, equine life is always precious. But when you have a unique, special, one-off type of animal, it makes it even harder. But that's the business, I'm sad to say. And things go on.”

They sure did, with Cezanne–albeit for a while that didn't seem terribly likely. They put him in the September Sale as a yearling. He was very correct, but a touch plain and they never could work off a bit of girth.

Viola came to the barn on the day of the sale and asked: “How are we doing?”

“We don't have anybody,” Sikura replied. “There's been no scoping. Had people look, but I don't think he's going to get sold.”

They agreed not to put him through the ring but to send him down to Crupi in Florida, and the rest is history. That's what Sikura is hoping, anyway, because he makes it a rule not to ask about horses he has sold–especially at that kind of money. “Because if they're good, it's common knowledge,” he says wryly. “And, if they're no good or something went wrong, you hate to put someone on the spot.”

So while he doesn't know quite what it was that interrupted Cezanne's career, he is gratified to see him thriving now for a team for whom he has the utmost regard.

“It was great he sold so well,” Sikura says. “But as important, for you to continue to restock and be in business, is that those horses are successful for the new owners. He has certainly shown that he has brilliant ability and now it's up to the racing gods. But he's in the hands of a master, he's owned by the smartest horsemen in the world, and it's a wonderful family–one of the few international pedigrees that performs in America, that performs in Europe, and at the highest level. Coolmore know the quality of that family [Better Than Honour's half-sister was dam of their champion Peeping Fawn (Danehill)]. So it's worked for them, and it's worked for us. We've had many daughters and I hope it will continue to proliferate, so that you end up with only one dam on the page and that's it.”

Cezanne leaving the Fasig-Tipton ring in 2019 | Fasig-Tipton photo

Admittedly Cezanne hasn't necessarily jumped through quite the expected hoops to this point. He was bought as a ready-to-roll flying machine who also had a Classic, two-turn page. Two years later, he has just made his fourth start, and in a sprint. It may be that Baffert just didn't want to stretch him on his comeback and, having pounced off an obligingly wild pace at Santa Anita, Cezanne may yet be restored to a second turn. That can be left to the seasoned judgement of his trainer and ownership group. All that really matters is that he bears the family hallmark.

Which is what, exactly? “There's randomness in all genetics, but there seems to be less here,” Sikura says. “It's a richness of blood that doesn't seem to wane, doesn't water down. It doesn't skip a generation. The transmission of quality is just so consistent. It's a rarity, but every once in a while, mares do that.”

Sikura suspects that such mares were slightly less uncommon in the past. (If he's right, then maybe that's something to do with the loosening of quality inevitable in modern stallion books: in times past, only the most eligible mares deserved access to top sires.) Regardless, he looks at the way Courtly Dee and her daughters were managed, and dares to dream of a similar legacy someday–“where one becomes two, becomes five, and then you've got 10, 12 daughters, granddaughters, great-granddaughters, all providing racehorses with relevancy today, tomorrow, and yesterday.”

If anything, Sikura felt that the family had fallen a little dormant over the past couple of years. But his expectations never wavered, and he has retained fillies from different branches so that he can control his own destiny, can keep that quality tight: a War Front here, a Candy Ride (Arg) there. But he's delighted, of course, that the line should have been newly invigorated by his own farm's premier stallion.

“It's very rewarding to breed a good horse, to see another generation come through under your care,” Sikura says. “You try with all of them, but only sometimes are you lucky enough to have the right vine, that outperforms the other vines. I guess that's what makes Chateau Lafite, and that's also what makes great dynasties in cattle or hunting dogs. Every once in a while, there seems to be such a concentration of genetic stuff that the fault lines are very thin. The expectation, the commonplace, is excellence and superiority–whereas in virtually every other mare, it's happenstance.

“In Better Than Honour and through Teeming and her daughters, greatness always seemed imminent. The family produces unfiltered quality so reliably they are generational influencers on the breed. Supreme quality and prepotency that only the rarest of families beget are hallmarks of this page. The fact that Greatest Honour and Cezanne emerged this year is a reminder of the relevancy and influence of this family each generation from Blush With Pride, Better Than Honour, Teeming and now Achieving.”

But you can't be in a hurry for that stuff. Even in the brief span of Cezanne's adolescence, after all, there has been a repeated need for patience.

“I remember saying how we had no action on this horse, and then all of a sudden he was the wild talking horse at Gulfstream,” says Sikura. “So well done to everybody. He's well owned, he's well trained, he's well bred. I don't see any deficit in the horse. I hope the sky's the limit.

“It's nice when you have a deal where genuinely everybody prospers, where everybody benefits and shares in the reward. It doesn't happen that often, there aren't that many opportunities, but this I believe is a deal that is giving back to everybody. They were brave to buy him and hopefully they're going to be rewarded with a blue-blooded stud prospect that has achieved on the racetrack.”

Andre Pater's painting of Teeming | courtesy Hill 'n' Dale

Aptly enough, a precious contributor to this tale has been actually rendered in paint. With eerie timing, as though anticipating both the imminent disaster and the consolations that would follow, Sikura for the first time decided to commission a portrait of one of his mares. Just days after Andre Pater came out for an initial study, Teeming was dead. (She suffered complications after twisting a gut.) Pater had wanted to pose her against a tree and Sikura requested that it should unobtrusively extend a dead limb with seven new sprouts.

“Nobody will see it or know it, but I will and that will represent the seven daughters,” he explains. “So there's the rejuvenation, the rebirth. Even now when I think of the day she died, I just hit bottom. But if there wasn't so much bad in this business, the good wouldn't feel as good.”

And, by the same token, greatness seldom comes our way. “It has to be so rare that people think, are you sure it can happen?” says Sikura. “And then, just when you don't think it can happen anymore, it does happen. It's frustrating along the way, but it's much like with the Triple Crown. People said you have to change dates, it doesn't work this way, it doesn't work that way. And then here come two Triple Crown winners, including one that didn't run as a 2-year-old, which was an impossibility.”

Yet however rare, greatness can have a clockwork quality, too. With Best in Show a Broodmare of the Year, and her granddaughter the same, how about a granddaughter of Better Than Honour someday following suit?

“That would just be history-making,” Sikura says. “That would be something that would last forever. You wouldn't want it for personal accolade, or to say 'look what we've done.' It would be for the family; it would be to recognize something that is going to be there for eternity, as one of the unique mares of the Stud Book. You could only dream of that happening. But the possibility is there.”

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Hall of Famer Julie Krone Brings Talents to Team Lindy

Just last week Lindy Farms, the Thoroughbred racing partnership of Philip Antonacci and Jimmy Takter, which was announced in September last year, had its first winner. They bring to the sport a novel approach to training and a dedication to keeping their horses relaxed and happy with a regiment that includes plenty of turnout in company with other horses.

Now, as they head back north to Monmouth for the summer, they are adding Hall of Famer Julie Krone to their team.

Krone is scheduled to arrive at Monmouth at the end of April.

“I'm very grateful to both Philip and Jimmy for the opportunity and am looking forward to getting to know the horses,” she said.

Antonacci, a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania and the Darley Flying Start program, grew up in a family that bred and raced Standardbreds at the highest level. Their renowned stable included the trotter Moni Maker, a mare trained by Takter, that retired as the richest female Standardbred in history, with $5,589,256 in lifetime earnings. As part of it's 1,000-acre breeding and training operation in Connecticut, the Antonacci family began dabbling in Thoroughbreds. It has long been the younger Antonacci's desire to be a trainer.

Takter, an international legend in the Standardbred business, began training for Antonacci's family in 1984. Retiring as a Standardbred trainer in 2016, he was looking for new challenges in life and now, as an adviser to Antonacci, Takter is applying his 40 years of conditioning experience and success with Standardbreds to Thoroughbreds.

“Simply put, Jimmy Takter is one of the great horsemen in the world,” Antonacci told the TDN in September, 2020. “He has a completely unique connection with the horses and his stats speak for themselves. Four Hambletonians, six Hambletonian Oaks and 34 Breeders Crowns, those are unfathomable statistics. He is one of those guys who, even though he was so successful every year, was always looking to make changes or modify something that would give him an advantage moving forward. He is a fast learner and is someone who can adapt.”

“We try to do things a little bit different without trying to reinvent the wheel,” Antonacci said of the new Lindy Farms partnership. “Obviously, everybody's been doing their own individual things for years and they are very successful at the highest level. So, we're just trying to find what works for us. Jimmy is a big believer, as am I, in interval training. We're trying to get horses to build a high cardio rate, and then recover, and then build back up again without putting too much stress on them.”

He continued, “So with our babies, we do interval training. It comes with plenty of rest, and not going too fast and letting them recover. So far, they've all taken to training very well and enjoy it. Everybody seems to be thriving off of it. After every training they seem to grow and muscle up more.”

Added Takter, “The reason why I like interval training is that you're building up the body a little stronger. I'd like to try to get a little bit more bone on the horses and get a little bit more solid foundation on the base. If they get a few months of that, then I think they can carry speed longer and hopefully stay sounder.”

In between the days of training, their pupils receive days of rest and turn out.

“These babies have their whole life to be stressed out in a racehorse environment,” said Antonacci. “We don't really want to replicate that type of environment in the early process as they're growing and developing. So, they spend plenty of time out in the paddock together. We pair them up in twos and they spend their off days, all day nearly, turned out in the paddock, enjoying themselves and being horses.”

With their first winter in Florida coming to an end, Antonacci and Takter have been able to see the fruits of their efforts, both in terms of the team they are building and their horses in training. Currently, there are 15 horses in the stable–eight of which are well-bred 2-year-olds.

“It's challenging,” Takter admitted. “It is way different than training a Standardbred. You never know what you will be facing every day, but I think for the last month I've been really, really happy with how things can come together. I think we finally found the right path, what we want to do with these horses. We went in very easy and very kind to them. Now the last month here they're coming along perfectly.”

“You know, with any new business or new team forming there is going to be ups and downs,” said Antonacci. “It's been a lot more ups than downs and I'm very happy with the people I have around me. The horses are doing great, so it's very exciting. Our team is really strong and everybody looks forward to coming to work every day. We're very happy with the horses and how they're progressing.”

“Our horse Advanced Strategy (Karakontie {Jpn}), who we acquired off Jim Jerkens, raced at Gulfstream [in first start for Lindy Farms]. He finished third. He raced very well. I give a lot of credit to Jim for sending him in such great order. He's a really honest horse and will be a fun New York-bred to have this summer to race around Belmont and Saratoga.”

In his next start last Saturday, the 4-year-old sailed to victory in an optional claimer at Gulfstream, giving Antonacci his first trip to the winner's circle as a trainer.

Krone's connection to the Antonacci family and Takter started with a big win. In 2000, when it came time to retire Moni Maker, Takter wanted to do it in an extra special way.

“When we had Moni Maker, the richest female Standardbred ever, she won a $500,000 race in her final start, but we wanted to do something a little bit more, you know, a little special for her when she did retire,” said Takter. “Julie Krone had just come off retirement and was getting inducted in the Hall of Fame. It was a nice tribute to bring a famous woman like her to ride Moni Maker in what we call Monte. It's riding on the saddle at the trot. Then, of course, she broke the world record. Philip kept in contact with her and about three weeks ago, we decided we would go to Monmouth Park and Julie said, `I want to be with you guys.' So I look forward to that day. She's such a great horsewoman and we can learn a lot from her.”

“Julie's got so much knowledge and she's really just a wealth of information,” said Antonacci. “I'm very, very excited to bring her along. And I think she's going to contribute to the team greatly. And, you know, she's got such a winning personality and is the type of person that you love to have around the farm. She makes everybody feel good and makes everybody feel happy.”

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The TDN Derby Top 20 for April 20

We've entered that fun phase of microscopic scrutiny that accompanies the GI Kentucky Derby waiting game. The rankings below are independent from the “Road to the Derby” points leaderboard that Churchill Downs will use to determine starting berths; that list can be accessed here.

1) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt & MGISW, 5-5-0-0, $2,265,144.
Last Start: 1st GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6, 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, KEE, Oct. 3, 1st GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 140

When you're the undefeated juvenile champ coming off a gutsy win in the most demanding prep of the season, you'd better expect to have a figurative target on your back in Louisville. This Tapit-sired Godolphin homebred can be a threatening pace presence while still retaining multiple gears for a stretch fight, as evidenced by his 97-Beyer Speed Figure win by a neck in the GII Blue Grass S. after an arduous stretch battle. That's a potent combination of tactics the majority of his foes have yet to demonstrate. The final furlong of this 'TDN Rising Star's Blue Grass was clocked in :12.53, the fastest in seven editions of that stakes since Keeneland switched back from synthetic to dirt. But we're now going on 30 years since the last Blue Grass winner—Strike the Gold in 1991—also won the Derby. In the 21st Century, Street Sense, American Pharoah and Nyquist have been the only 2-year-old Eclipse Award winners to win the Derby. There were no dual Eclipse/Derby winners in the 1980s or '90s. But in the '70s that feat was routine, and the honor roll includes some legendary names: Spectacular Bid, Affirmed, Seattle Slew, Foolish Pleasure, Secretariat and Riva Ridge.

2) KNOWN AGENDA (c, Curlin–Byrama {GB}, by Byron {GB})
O/B-St Elias Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $135,000 RNA Ylg '19 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 6-3-1-1, $541,700.
Last Start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Accomplishments: 3rd GII Remsen S., AQU, Dec. 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 102

A bet on Known Agenda in the Derby is essentially a wager that he's put early-season greenness behind him and will be able to leverage the stamina and speed aspects of his pedigree effectively enough to excel over 10 furlongs. The dam of this athletic chestnut, Byrama, was bred in Great Britain but was exported stateside to earn a Grade I win at nine furlongs over a synthetic surface at Hollywood Park. And Known Agenda himself already has four lifetime attempts at 1 1/8 miles, which leaves him positioned a bit better than many of his competitors. A $135,000 RNA at FTSAUG, this Curlin colt looked impressive gliding up the rail to cuff the field in the GI Florida Derby, his second straight win since adding blinkers. But his 94 Beyer Speed Figure in that race was a 12-point leap off of his career best, and Known Agenda will have to up that number yet again to win in Louisville, where a clear, ground-saving run might not be as achievable in the 20-horse Derby the way it was at Gulfstream.

3) HOT ROD CHARLIE (c, Oxbow–Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie)
O-Roadrunner Racing, Boat Racing LLC & William Strauss; B-Edward A Cox (KY); T-Doug O'Neill. Sales History: $17,000 Ylg '19 FTKFEB; $110,000 Ylg '19 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-2-1-2, $1,005,700.
Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 2nd GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6; 3rd GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 110

Hot Rod Charlie figures to go off as the third choice in the Derby betting, and at 7-1 or so I can see him offering a hint of value (as opposed to the two horses ranked ahead of him, both of whom figure to be slightly underlaid). If this two-time Fasig-Tipton sales grad ($17,000 FTKFEB; $110,000 FTKOCT) does manage to earn a blanket of roses, it will probably be because he manages to fuse the raw speed of his older half-brother (2019 sprint champ Mitole) with the staying power of his sire (Oxbow, the wire-to-wire winner of the 2013 GI Preakness S.). Known for being relaxed in morning training, Hot Rod Charlie comes across as a horse who is speed-centric but doesn't require the lead, and he's run well in deep stretch under sustained pressure and amid bumping. There is one historical caveat that works against Hot Rod Charlie, though: He ran second at 94-1 in last November's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. The 108 horses who have run 1-2-3 in the 36-year history of the Juvenile have only accounted for four Derby wins (3.7%), meaning a good race in the Juvenile has devolved into a negative-slanted metric for projecting success six months later in the Derby.

4) HIGHLY MOTIVATED (c, Into Mischief–Strong Incentive, by Warrior's Reward)
O/B-Klaravich Stables, Inc (KY). T-Chad Brown. Sales History: $240,000 wlg '18 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: SW & MGSP, 5-2-2-1, $320,050.
Last Start: 2nd GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 1st Nyquist S., KEE, Nov. 6, 3rd GIII Gotham S., AQU, Mar. 6
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50

This $240,000 KEENOV Into Mischief colt bulleted a half mile in :47.20 Sunday at Keeneland (1/27) in his first timed workout since giving division leader Essential Quality a serious run for the money in the Blue Grass S. (97 Beyers for both). On Monday Highly Motivated shipped to Churchill, were trainer Chad Brown hopes to hone this bay's tactical speed into an effective weapon over 10 furlongs. Highly Motivated also beat No. 2-ranked Known Agenda in a MSW last season in New York, meaning he's fared the best in head-to-head matchups against the horses at the top of the crop. Over the past three decades, contenders who have lost the Blue Grass have actually performed better in the Derby than the winners of that prep, with Street Sense (2007), Thunder Gulch (1995) and Sea Hero (1993) all tasting defeat in Lexington prior to reversing form in Louisville. But despite the arresting visual nature of Highly Motivated's stretch fight in the Blue Grass, this colt will go to the Derby without having seen the inside of a winner's circle in nearly six months. You have to go back to Super Saver in 2010 to find any Derby winner who did not win a race at age three prior to winning the Derby.

5) KING FURY (c, Curlin–Taris, by Flatter)
O-Fern Circle Stables & Three Chimneys Farm LLC;
B-Heider Family Stables (KY); T-Ken McPeek. Sales History: $950,000 Ylg '19 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record:
GSW, 6-3-0-0, $262,739.
Last Start: 1st GIII Stonestreet Lexington S., KEE, Apr. 10
Accomplishments: 1st Street Sense S., CD, Oct. 25
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 20.

Last week King Fury was parked way out at No. 28 on the qualifying list, but seven defections have tightened up the field to the point where he now only needs one other horse to opt out to make the starting cutoff. This $950,000 FTSAUG Curlin colt isn't ideally prepped for the Derby with just one start at age three, but trainer Ken McPeek no doubt can build off of King Fury's meaningful base of six lifetime starts at 1 1/16 miles and a punch-through 95-Beyer win over the slop in the GIII Lexington S. on Apr. 10. We are certainly in an era when A-list prospects race only sparingly, but to give you an idea of the hurdle that King Fury must overcome to win the Derby, consider this: Since 1937, horses with just one sophomore start prior to the Derby are a collective 0-for-24 (and no horse has even attempted that feat since 2013). Yet in this case, I'm willing to go against convention if the price is right, pari-mutuelly speaking. This is a “live” Derby horse if he sneaks in.

6) DYNAMIC ONE (c, 3, Union Rags–Beat the Drums, by Smart Strike)
O-Repole Stable, Phipps Stable & St Elias Stable; B-Phipps Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $725,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 5-1-2-0, $194,120
Last Start: 2nd GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 3
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 40

Few bettors are going to back Dynamic One in the Derby based on his speed numbers alone. He was nipped at the wire by a 72-1 stablemate in the slowest running ever of the GII Wood Memorial (89 Beyer), and his maiden win by 5 1/4 lengths was achieved by pressing a 42-1 pacemaker through soft splits in a nine-furlong race clocked in 1:55.21 (79 Beyer). But trainer Todd Pletcher's initially high aspirations for this $725,000 KEESEP colt are starting to coalesce into discernible improvement, as Dynamic One is cultivating the look of an effective stayer who is just now learning how to finish. Earlier in his career, this Union Raags colt drew some undesirable posts and he had trouble leaving the gate in three starts. But in the Wood he rated patiently four wide on both turns, then wrested control of a six-way go from the quarter pole home before losing in the final jump to Bourbonic (Bernardini). Sired by a GI Belmont S. winner and with a female pedigree that resonates with Phipps-homebred stamina influences, Dynamic One's lofty ranking at No. 7 is not so much an assessment of where he stands now, but a prognostication of what he might be capable of orchestrating at long odds on May 1.

7) MIDNIGHT BOURBON (c, Tiznow–Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $525,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-2-2-3, $461,420.
Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20.
Accomplishments: 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16, 2nd GIII Iroquois S., CD, Sept. 25, 3rd GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13, 3rd GI Champagne S., BEL, Oct. 10
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 66

Jockey Mike Smith will be the new rider for this $525,000 KEESEP colt from Steve Asmussen's barn. Smith is 2-for-26 in the Derby, and it's interesting to juxtapose the odds of his two winners, Giacomo (50-1 in 2005) and Justify (the 2018 fave who went on to win the Triple Crown). But Smith's luck in the last two Derbies hasn't been so hot: In 2019, he was the rider of morning-line fave Omaha Beach, who got injured and scratched days before the race; he instead picked up the ride on 24-1 Cutting Humor, who ran tenth. Last summer, Smith opted off of eventual Derby winner Authentic to instead ride Honor A.P., who finished fourth. Smith doesn't often ride for Asmussen (they race on different circuits except for big racing days), but he won with the last two mounts the trainer offered him at Churchill last June 27. Smith's task with Midnight Bourbon will involve teaching this capable (three 93+ Beyers this year) stalker how to seal the deal, because this Tiznow bay has had trouble putting away opponents under pressure. Midnight Bourbon has never been off the board in seven lifetime starts, a nice foundation that has yet to be capped with a breakthrough effort.

8) ROCK YOUR WORLD (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Charm the Maker, by Empire Maker)
O-Hronis Racing LLC & Talla Racing LLC. B-Ron & Deborah McAnally (KY). T-John Sadler. Sales History: $650,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 3-3-0-0, $546,600.
Last Start: 1st GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 1st Pasadena S., SA, Feb. 27
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 100

Although Rock Your World's record stands at a perfect 3-for-3, trainer John Sadler told TDN last week that it took a lot of behind-the-scenes prep to make the leap from winning a MSW turf sprint and a $100,000 grass stakes to wiring a Grade I field with a 100 Beyer in this colt's first dirt try. “After the Pasadena [S.], we went to work a little bit harder on things that weren't working for him. We took him to the gate three times before the Santa Anita Derby, we did extra schooling in the paddock,” Sadler said. “I also wanted to start on the grass because I thought it would be easier. He's a big horse [and I] wanted to give him time to develop, grow up, mature into himself. He's done that…. Does whatever you want. Willing worker. Pretty nice horse to train. Good energy.” Despite a pedigree with some convincing stamina influences (by Candy Ride [Arg] out of an Empire Maker mare), Rock Your World may still be in for a class shock in Louisville. His Santa Anita Derby was soft in terms of quality, with only one stakes winner among the eight horses he beat by 4 1/4 lengths.

9) SUPER STOCK (c, 3, Dialed In–Super Girlie, by Closing Argument)
O-Erv Woolsey & Keith Asmussen; B-Pedro & P J Gonzalez (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $70,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 8-2-2-2, $804,762.
Last Start: 1st, GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 10.
Accomplishments: 2nd Street Sense S., CD, Oct. 25; 3rd GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, KEE, Oct. 3; 3rd GIII Iroquois S., CD, Sept. 5. Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 109

Super Stock might be a late arrival on the Derby scene, but wind the clock back to last autumn to recall this $70,000 KEESEP colt by Dialed In finished just 4 3/4 lengths behind Essential Quality in a Grade I stakes at Keeneland, then was bet down to 9-10 favoritism when second in a black-type stakes at Churchill. This Steve Asmussen trainee then didn't race for nearly five months, but apparently got more out of his 40-1 fourth in the GII Rebel S. than was evident on paper, rebounding to win the GI Arkansas Derby with a well-executed, ground-saving surge into a tiring speed setup. On the plus side, this is a horse who consistently advances his position in the stretch and could be on the cusp of getting good at the right time. On the minus side, the subpar performances of the two 'TDN Rising Stars' he passed in the stretch at Oaklawn were so iffy that the connections of Concert Tour (Street Sense) have already opted out of the Derby and those of Caddo River (Hard Spun) are still on the fence.

10) MEDINA SPIRIT (c, Protonico–Mongolian Changa, by Briliant Speed)
O-Zedan Racing Stables. B-Gail Rice (FL). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $1,000 ylg '19 OBSWIN; $35,000 2yo '20 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 5-2-3-0, $315,200.
Last Start: 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 1st Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30, 2nd GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6, 2nd GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 2
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 74

When the subject of trainer Bob Baffert's Derby prowess gets brought up, it isn't long before someone chimes in that it's not surprising he's won six Derbies considering the depth of his well-stocked stable that annually gets replenished with fashionably bred, high-priced colts. But if Medina Spirit–Baffert's lone remaining Derby candidate this year–delivers win number seven, no one is going to say this low-budget bargain ($1,000 at OBSWIN and $35,000 OBSOPN) was out of the reach for everyone else at the sales ring. This Protonico colt's 2-3-0 record from five starts (with a Grade II stakes win and Beyers routinely in the mid-90s) is all the more impressive considering Medina Spirit was discovered to have had an entrapped epiglottis after the Mar. 6 GII San Felipe S. He had surgery to correct it, missing practically no training, and was a best-of-the-rest second behind Rock Your World in the Santa Anita Derby the first time he raced after the operation.

11) MANDALOUN (c, Into Mischief–Brooch, by Empire Maker)
O/B-Juddmonte Farms Inc. (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-1, $361,252.
Last Start: 6th GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13, 3rd GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 52

If you can avert your eyes from Mandaloun's no-punch sixth as the beaten fave in the Louisiana Derby, the overall past performance block for this 'TDN Rising Star' isn't badly tarnished. This Juddmonte homebred by Into Mischief kept credible company in his first four starts, registering improving Beyers in each of those races. He's a stalker with some seasoning and a speed-over-stamina pedigree, and he won his only start at Churchill. But beware of this red flag: Trainer Brad Cox has started a total of 10 horses on dirt at 1 1/4 miles or longer over the last five years. None have won, and only one managed to hit the board.

12) SOUP AND SANDWICH (c, Into Mischief–Souper Scoop, by Tapit)
O-Live Oak Plantation; B-Live Oak Stud (FL); T-Mark Casse. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-2-1-0, $203,875.
Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 40

I don't rank him as an overt win threat, I generally respect any young horse that trainer Mark Casse thinks is ready to attempt a sizable step up in class and distance. This gray didn't debut until Jan. 28 in a restricted sprint for Florida-breds, then only had to beat two other starters in a two-turn Tampa allowance. But this Live Oak homebred shouldered the pace burden on the front end of the Florida Derby and still had something remaining to punch back at Known Agenda in upper stretch, earning second despite finishing on his left lead through the lane.

Potentially rounding out the starting gate…

13) Caddo River (Hard Spun): The Derby status of 'TDN Rising Star' Caddo River was in limbo up until deadline for this column on Monday, and it could remain undecided until later in the week. This Hard Spun homebred for Shortleaf Stable is expected to be a key pace component if he does start in the Derby, but he appeared out of his comfort zone in each of his last two stakes preps at Oaklawn, when he was rank while stalking in the GII Rebel S. (fading to fifth) and when he got dueled into defeat in the Arkansas Derby (regaining second but not authoritatively so). Caddo River does own an impressive 9 ½-length victory at Churchill, which could be of benefit if he goes in the Derby.

14) Hidden Stash (Constitution): Deep closer Hidden Stash's two in-the-money Tampa stakes attempts were sneaky-good efforts, particularly his runner-up try in the GII Tampa Bay Derby. But he didn't advance when outclassed in the Blue Grass, checking in as a one-paced fourth with a slight Beyer regression. This $50,000 KEESEP does own a win over the Churchill main track and Hidden Stash figures to be passing horses late in the lane, making him a potential inclusion for underneath spots in exotics.

15) Helium (Ironicus): After Helium won the GII Tampa Bay Derby, trainer Mark Casse said what impressed him most was how this 3-for-3, $55,000 FTKOCT colt closed from midpack even though the pre-race strategy was to have this Ironicus colt sitting closer to the early pace. Such versatility can be a virtue in a mad-scramble race like the Kentucky Derby, which Helium will attempt off an eight-week gap. But his 84 Beyer for that effort rates on the low end for prep-race speed figures, and the nine horses that have run back out of the Tampa Derby have combined for only one next-out win and one third (both requiring class drops).

16) Bourbonic (Bernardini): This Calumet homebred required a drop into maiden-claiming company to register his first win back in December, and he subsequently failed to deliver when second in a Parx allowance two months later. Let go at 72-1 odds in the slowly run Wood Memorial, he looped the group from far back under an impeccably timed ride by Kendrick Carmouche. There is some logic in thinking that this is a horse (whose Beyers have been on an upward arc for four straight races) who is sure to get a quicker cadence to set the table for him in the Derby, so maybe lightning will strike twice.

17) Sainthood (Mshawish): Sainthood ($100,000 KEEJAN, $90,000 KEESEP RNA, $62,000 OBSOCT) was the only horse gaining on the winner when second (84 Beyer) in the GIII Jeff Ruby S. at Turfway. But that race as a whole looks aberrational considering the favorite got wiped out at the break and there was a logjam of traffic that impeded several late runners in the stretch. As a May 15 foal, Sainthood won't truly turn three before Derby day.

18) O Besos (Orb): Son of the 2013 Derby victor was most recently third, beaten just two lengths, in the Louisiana Derby. Beyers have ascended in all five starts for this homebred colt, although habit of slow starts and giving up real estate when wide into the first turns of route races could be costly in the Derby.

19) Like the King (Palace Malice): His sire won the 12-furlong Belmont S. in 2013 and his damsire (Corinthian) was a high-torque miler who won both the GI Metropolitan H. and the inaugural Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile in 2007. This rangy chestnut ($28,000 KEENOV, $170,000 OBSOCT) has never been off the board in six lifetime tries, but his only three wins have been over turf (once at Belterra) and Tapeta (twice at Turfway).

20) Dream Shake (Twirling Candy): Debuted in a big way at 20-1 odds Feb. 7, earning 'TDN Rising Star' status when coasting home by 4 ¾ lengths (96 Beyer) over a decent field (two next-out winners). But since coming off Lasix and stepping up to graded stakes, this colt has twice run no-impact thirds, beaten an aggregate 16 ¾ lengths. He bulleted five-eighths in :59.20 (1/72) on Saturday at Santa Anita.

The post The TDN Derby Top 20 for April 20 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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