Oct. 17 Insights

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PRICEY QUALITY ROAD COLT DEBUTS IN NY
3rd-BEL, $90K, Msw, 2yo, 7f, 1:41 p.m.
Shug McGaughey unveils an expensive son of Quality Road here in CITIZEN MACK. A $950,000 KEESEP purchase by Don & Donna Adam's Courtlandt Farm, the dark bay is the first foal out of Rutile (Medaglia d'Oro), who is a daughter of MSW Set Them Free (Stop the Music). That blue hen mare is also responsible for GI Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo (Holy Bull), MGISW Tiago (Pleasant Tap); GSW & MGISP Stanwyck (Empire Maker); and MGSP Sea Jewel (Sea Hero). Claiborne and Adele Dilschneider homebred Debate (Flatter) also makes his career bow here for Hall of Famer Bill Mott. The bay is out of Grade II winner Vexed (Arch), who is a daughter of SW Cross (Mighty). Mott also saddles Godolphin homebred Urban Forest (Hard Spun), who makes his second start after finishing third on debut at Saratoga Aug. 14. His second dam is MGSW Forest Heiress (Forest Wildcat). TJCIS PPs

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Defending E. P. Taylor Winner Likely Favored for Repeat

Etoile (Fr) (Siyouni {Fr}), a narrow winner of the 2020 GI E. P. Taylor S., is the 5-2 morning-line favorite to repeat in Sunday's renewal at Woodbine.

A Group 3 winner in her native land for Jean-Claude Rouget, she brought 750,000gns from Peter Brant, Mrs. M. V. Magnier and Mrs. Paul Shanahan at the 2019 TATDEC sale and was transferred to Chad Brown for a North American campaign.

Second as the favorite in last term's GII Dance Smartly S., she went one better for a career high next out in the E. P. Taylor. She's only made two starts since in 2021, kicking off her 5-year-old campaign with a flat fourth-place effort in Keeneland's GI Coolmore Jenny Wiley S. Apr. 10, then finished a fast-closing second as the favorite to Mutamakina (GB) (Nathaniel {Ire}) in the Dance Smartly last time Aug. 22.

Brown, one-two in last weekend's GI Joe Hirsch Turf Classic S. at Belmont and GI First Lady S. at Keeneland, will also saddle second-choice Great Island (Scat Daddy) and Kalifornia Queen (Ger) (Lope de Vega {Ire}), who finished first and second, respectively, in Monmouth's GIII WinStar Matchmaker S. July 17. Great Island followed with a second-place finish in Saratoga's GI Flower Bowl S. Sept. 4 while Kalifornia Queen placed third in the GII Ballston Spa S. Aug. 28.

La Dragontea (GB) (Lope de Vega {Ire}) and Court Return (Court Vision), one-two across the line in the GII Canadian S. at Woodbine Sept. 18, re-oppose, while Waliyak (Fr) (Le Havre {Ire}) makes the trip across the pond following a victory for Roger Varian in the G3 Prix Bertrand de Tarragon at Chantilly Sept. 17. Varian also secured this contest with Sheikha Reika (Fr) (Shamardal) in 2018.

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Saturday Insights: Mill Ridge Firster Appeals In Split Maiden

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6th-KEE, $84K, Msw, 2yo, 1 1/16mT, post time: 3:40 p.m. ET
MOMS MOON (Kitten's Joy) is a son of Sweet Assay (Consolidator), acquired as a 5-year-old by Nicoma Bloodstock for $14,000 at the 2014 Keeneland January Sale and covered by Point of Entry in her maiden trip to the breeding shed. The resulting foal became 'TDN Rising Star' Analyze It, a 6 1/4-length debut winner who became a three-time winner at the graded level and was placed in the GI Belmont Derby, GI Secretariat S. and GI Breeders' Cup Mile. The Chad Brown-trainee snapped a four-race skid dating back to last year's GIII Red Bank S. in Belmont allowance company Oct. 8. Moms Moon's Grade II-winning third dam A. P. Assay (A.P. Indy) was a half-sister to the late Came Home (Gone West). TJCIS PPs

Juddmonte Unveils Arrogate Homebred…
3rd-KEE, $84K, Msw, 2yo, 1 1/16mT, post time: 2:04 p.m. ET
VERBIER (Arrogate) is the first foal out of Bernadiva (Bernardini), a longshot third in the grassy Riskaverse S. for Jake Ballis and Bill Mott and later acquired privately with an eye on becoming a future mate for the late Arrogate. Bernadiva is a daughter of the versatile Evening Jewel (Northern Afleet), winner of a synthetic-track renewal of this track's GI Central Bank Ashland S. and that year's GI Del Mar Oaks on the turf either side of a heartbreaking defeat at the hooves of Blind Luck (Pollard's Vision) in the GI Kentucky Oaks. Among the competition is Whitham Thoroughbreds' Hatch (E Dubai), a son of turf GSW Linda (Scat Daddy), herself a daughter of GSW/GISP Beautiful Noise (Sunny's Halo). TJCIS PPs

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This Side Up: A Warning Flare Illuminates Empress Bid

Nobody in our community is more eligible than Ted Bassett to say that he has seen it all before, but something will be attempted Saturday that falls outside even the long experience encompassed by his 100th birthday in just a few days' time. For a Keeneland showpiece that Mr. Bassett helped to inaugurate in 1984, as host to the lady for whom it was named, could well present one of her subjects with the opportunity to complete a unique double.

First, in the backyard of Windsor Castle, William Haggas saddles the unbeaten star of his Newmarket stable, Baaeed (GB) (Sea The Stars {Ire}), in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II S. at Ascot. Then, just a few hours later, he will see whether Cloudy Dawn (Ire) (Kodiac {GB}) can export the GI Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup.

Be in no doubt, an elite prize on either side of the ocean–both honoring one of the patrons of his own yard–is a day's work well within the reach of one of the premier English trainers of his generation. Two weeks ago, Haggas sent out eight winners at five different tracks in one afternoon. That might seem a relatively feasible endeavor in the American system, Jeff Runco having saddled seven state-bred winners on a single card at Charles Town only last week, but it is thought to be unprecedented in Britain. Regardless, you can judge the precision with which Haggas places his horses from the last time he sent Cloudy Dawn into action, at Deauville in August. She was first of four winners either side of the English Channel within 40 minutes, three at Group level, at cumulative odds of 4,252-to-1.

This upgrade for Cloudy Dawn duly implies that her progress must be ongoing. But a race so hospitable to the strengths of European raiders, true to the diplomatic spirit of its creation, also features one whose campaigning invites horsemen on both sides of the water to ponder their collective management of the breed.

For it was only last Saturday that Empress Josephine (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) finished strongly for third in the GI First Lady S. This same formula worked for Ballydoyle 10 years ago with another daughter of Galileo, Together (Ire), who similarly finished strongly for a podium against her seniors before wheeling back to beat fellow sophomores the following weekend. (And Together, moreover, had run in a Group 1 at Newmarket just two weeks before the First Lady.)

Empress Josephine (left), third just last week in the First Lady | Coady

Now this kind of thing has long been a familiar trademark of their record-breaking trainer, Aidan O'Brien. Partly, no doubt, that has been a luxury of his status as primarily a private trainer. Federico Tesio, who was similarly in the business of proving stock for breeding, ruthlessly diverted even elite animals to the service of their workmates as soon as he felt he had established their ceiling. And O'Brien has always said that his employers–renouncing the nervous protection of reputations that once inhibited so many commercial operations–urge him to use the Ballydoyle talent pool as a means of drawing out its deepest genetic resources. John Magnier had plainly decided that the cyclical, dynastic nature of breeding made it a better play, in the long term, to be sure what you had.

As a result, O'Brien has been able to produce breeding stock that repeats its brilliance because it's encased in corresponding hardiness. The most celebrated example among stallions he has made is Giant's Causeway, whose ferrous qualities were such that the aggregate winning distance across his last eight starts–five as winner, three times as runner-up, over different distances and surfaces but all at Group 1/Grade I level–was barely a couple of lengths. But O'Brien has frequently hammered wonderful careers out of fillies, too, by plunging them unsparingly into the forge.

That of Peeping Fawn (Danehill), for instance, was compressed between April and August of her sophomore campaign, and included four starts in maidens. Eleven days after the last of those, she ran third in the G1 Irish 1,000 Guineas–and then second in another Classic, over half a mile farther at Epsom, just FIVE days after that. Time for a break? Forget it. Later that month she was launched on a spree of four Group 1 wins, each more impressive than the last, within 54 days.

All horses are different, naturally, and a genius like O'Brien will clearly tailor his methods to their individual needs. And being totally ignorant of what makes Malathaat (Curlin) tick, for instance, it would be invidious to rebuke her Halley's Comet schedule. In broader terms, however, I think we are all entitled to regret those changes in either the breed or training methods, or both, that nowadays inhibit the way racehorses are campaigned.

Flippant brings a three-race win streak to her first GI test | Coady

We owe nearly all the copper-bottomed influences in postwar American pedigrees to an old school testing of their genetic selection for the kind of robust constitution required to carry speed. Hail to Reason's career notoriously derailed in its first September, but he had already made 18 starts. Nashua won a maiden on debut, in May, and was contesting his second stakes 14 days later.

John Williams, such a precious and enlightening conduit of the best old lore, has always said that this horse was his physical paragon. John will tell you that just looking at Nashua's shoe, even as an ageing stallion, would explain how he had sustained a juvenile championship, 2-1-1 finishes in the Triple Crown, and a Jockey Club Gold Cup over four seconds faster than his first. Eddie Arcaro once told John how he was wondering what to say as Nashua returned from one of his occasional dud works, but before he could say a word Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons had sent him straight back out to do it again. This time Nashua put in a bullet, and he won the Wood Memorial three days later.

Now you may say that it would be reckless to train horses like that today. But I'm not sure O'Brien would agree with you and, if the Thoroughbred really is less resilient today, then that may well reflect a far more culpable recklessness among breeders.

Earlier this week colleague Emma Berry broke the story in TDN Europe that G1 2,000 Guineas and G1 St James's Palace S. winner Poetic Flare (Ire) (Dawn Approach {Ire})–who this spring contested three Classics in 22 days–has been acquired to stand in Japan. Poetic Flare, remember, was bred and trained by Jim Bolger, once mentor to the young O'Brien. And you can be sure Bolger approves what his former protégé is doing with Empress Josephine, as another 2021 Classic winner from the same school of Irish horsemanship.

As a stud prospect, Poetic Flare offered precisely what we need to staunch the genetic losses being suffered by the breed today. Unfortunately, however, European commercial breeders have unanimously written off his sire and none of them, despite the evidence before their eyes, appears to accept that worthwhile strains in a pedigree might filter through regardless. (Ironic, really, when Poetic Flare satisfies the Galileo-Danehill blend they hold so sacred.)

Maybe an imaginative farm in Kentucky might have taken a chance with Poetic Flare, but the environment there would have been no less wholesome. Despite the vogue for importing yearlings from Tattersalls, everyone can see how hard it is even for proven turf stallions, never mind extremely credible new ones, to get commercial traction in the domestic yearling market.

Bassett and The Queen before the 1984 inaugural race in her name | Keeneland photo

Once again, then, the Japanese have been able to consolidate a program that will eventually leave the transatlantic gene pools to repent, too late, of their disastrous recent schism. One keen observer of the breed will surely not need reminding of what has been lost as a result. During the war her father bred a filly named Knight's Daughter, who was exported to Claiborne and a couple of years later delivered a Princequillo colt. His name was Round Table, and he won just the 43 of 66 starts.

By the same token, then, perhaps The Queen will also be glad to see a daughter of Tapit in the Keeneland race run in her name. The Gainesway phenomenon has been given mysteriously little opportunity in Europe, despite a dazzling winner of the historic Cambridgeshire H. from a very small sample of runners. Tapit's stock actually has a pretty respectable record on turf in the U.S., bearing in mind that it's an option typically only even tried for horses appearing short of ability on the main track. Certainly Flippant has been thriving on the grass, and we wish her connections well in a race they would prize dearly.

We can't all benefit from the length of perspective shared by Mr. Bassett and The Queen of England, now approaching a combined 195 years. But maybe Empress Josephine or Flippant, between them, can at least get a few people to see a slightly bigger picture.

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