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Handicapping the Kentucky Derby Preps: Blue Grass, Santa Anita Derby & Wood Memorial

TDN's Senior Racing Editor Steve Sherack provides analysis for Saturday's trio of GI Kentucky Derby prep races.

GI Toyota Blue Grass S. – In a race billed as a showdown between the re-opposing GII Remsen S. one-two Dornoch (Good Magic) and Sierra Leone (Gun Runner), don't look past likely third choice Just a Touch (Justify). The highly regarded bay ran to the hype with a powerful debut score for trainer Brad Cox over the promising $1.7-million KEESEP graduate Gun Party (Curlin) (he returned with another very good second-place finish Mar. 16) on debut sprinting in the Fair Grounds slop Jan. 27. He was well-backed at the windows again for his second career start and lost little in defeat finishing second as the favorite over another saturated surface in a deep renewal of the GIII Gotham S. Mar. 2. Just a Touch will finally get a chance to showcase his ability on a fast surface and has every right to take another step forward stretching out to two turns for the first time as well. He should be able to sit a perfect trip just off Dornoch and have the jump on the stretch-running Sierra Leone, who is the horse to beat off his impressive come-from-behind win in the GII Risen Star S. Feb. 17. Selection: #6 Just a Touch (7-2).

GII Wood Memorial S. – No knocks on the 7-5 morning-line favorite and impressive Gotham winner Deterministic (Liam's Map), but I prefer the fellow unbeaten Tuscan Sky (Vino Rosso) here. Like the aforementioned Just a Touch, Tuscan Sky has raced only on wet, sealed tracks in his first two starts. The gray finished up like a real good thing after a bit of an interesting journey (led early, dropped back to third on the far turn and leveled off beautifully in stretch to win going away) sprinting on debut at the Big A Jan. 13. He backed up that effort with another fantastic performance–albeit in a three-horse field–with a two-length decision over sharp next-out Hot Springs S. winner Nash (Medaglia d'Oro) (good for a 95 Beyer) while making his two-turn debut on the Risen Star undercard. Tuscan Sky tuned up for this with a four-furlong bullet in :48 3/5 (1/20) for seven-time Wood Memorial-winning trainer Todd Pletcher at Palm Beach Downs Mar. 30. Tuscan Sky's young sire Vino Rosso won this same race in 2018. Selection: #9 Tuscan Sky (4-1).

GI Santa Anita Derby – It's difficult to make a case against Imagination (Into Mischief), who will be the much-deserved Santa Anita Derby favorite. The $1.05-million KEESEP yearling has run well in all five of his career starts and has taken a nice step forward in his last two. He gave highly regarded Bob Baffert-trained stablemate Maymun (Frosted) all he could handle while finishing second in an optional claimer Feb. 11, then dug in gamely to secure a career high in the GII San Felipe S. Mar. 3. Should be well-spotted beneath Frankie Dettori either on or just off the lead. Selection: #4 Imagination (8-5).

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Well-Related Justify Colt Faces Winners at Hanshin

In this continuing series, we take a look ahead at US-bred and/or conceived runners entered for the upcoming weekend at the tracks on the Japan Racing Association circuit, with a focus on pedigree and/or performance in the sales ring. Here are the horses of interest for Saturday running at Nakayama and Hanshin Racecourses. Classics season gets under way Sunday at the latter venue with the running of the G1 Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas):

Saturday, April 6, 2024
5th-HSN, ¥14,880,000 ($98k), Allowance, 3yo, 1800m
DANON K TWO (JPN) (c, 3, Justify–Enticed {Ire}, by Galileo {Ire}) belied debut odds of 15-1 to graduate by 1 1/4 lengths at Kyoto back in January (video, SC 10) and has been bet into single digits ante-post for this first go against winners. The bay is the recipient of a recent pedigree update, as his dam is a full-sister to G2 Dubai Gold Cup winner Tower of London (Ire) as well as G1 St Leger and G1 Irish Derby hero Capri (Ire), GSW & MG1SP Passion (Ire), GSW Cypress Creek (Ire) and the dam of last year's G1 Fillies' Mile winner Commissioning (GB) (Kingman {GB}). B-Mishima Bokujo

5th-NKY, ¥10,480,000 ($69k), Maiden, 3yo, 2000mT
SALVIANO (c, 3, Yoshida {Jpn}–Livorno, by Bernardini) is the second foal from a daughter of 2004 GII Davona Dale S. winner Miss Coronado (Coronado's Quest), whose other produce include SW & GISP Arethusa (A.P. Indy), SP Divine Mercy (Bernardini) and the dam of GSP Fleetridge (Ghostzapper). The Grade III-winning third dam Miss Caerleona (Fr) (Caerleon) was responsible for Karen's Caper (War Chant), a Group 3 winner and Group 1-placed in England and a multiple Grade III winner and runner-up in the GI QE II Challenge Cup in this country. Salviano's expatriated sire is standing his first season at stud at Darley Japan. B-Godolphin (KY)

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Lukas Relishing His Return to the Kentucky Derby

For a time, Wayne Lukas was as much a part of the GI Kentucky Derby as mint juleps and roses. From 1981, when he sent out his first Derby starter in Partez, to 2000, he had at least one starter in the race every year while running a total of 38 horses. Four of them–Winning Colors, Thunder Gulch, Grindstone and Charismatic–won.

But he hasn't had a starter since Bravazo (Awesome Again) in 2018 and hasn't had a winner since Charismatic in 1999. But the drought is over as the 88-year-old training legend has managed to accumulate enough points (65) with GI Arkansas Derby runner-up Just Steel (Justify) that the colt, barring injury, is guaranteed a spot in the Derby starting gate.

“I'm really excited about being back, but I don't want to be back without a legitimate chance,” Lukas said. “I've already heard 'My Old Kentucky Home' and seen our silks out there on the track. I don't need to go through that. I am interested in trying to get a good horse there.”

Just Steel was seventh, beaten 10 lengths, in the GII Rebel S. and looked to be in over his head that day facing some of the best in the division. But he ran a much-improved race in the Arkansas Derby, finishing second behind Muth (Good Magic) at odds of 32-1.

It was just the type of effort Lukas was looking for from his colt.

“I've been managing this horse a little bit and trying to get him really good,” he said. “He stands 17 hands and he weighs 1,300 pounds. He's a big growthy horse that I didn't want to push a lot in March and April. I wanted to have him good enough so that I could sneak in on the points. But I didn't want to push hard on him.”

With Lukas yet to fully tighten the screws, he is expecting a much-improved performance come Derby Day.

“I finally put a mile work into him to get him ready,” Lukas said. “He's got some quality about him. If I can use the next month to tighten on him a little bit I think he will keep the race honest. I think he will take a quantum leap forward. I could see him improving something like 10 points from the last race to this race. I expect him to jump forward quite a bit.”

That Lukas is back in the Derby isn't necessarily a surprise. For the first time in a few years he has deep-pocketed clients that are spending serious money at the sales. Just Steel runs for BC Stables LLC, the stable name for the partnership of John Bellinger and Brian Coelho.

“I'm very happy for those clients,” he said. “These are my new guys and they have really stepped up financially. They are our No. 1 clients. The yearlings they bought last year are outstanding. I'm more interested in getting them to the Derby than I am getting myself back there. I was really happy after the Arkansas Derby knowing we have gotten them into the Derby.”

Lukas is also holding out hope that Seize the Grey (Arrogate) will earn enough points in Saturday's GI Blue Grass S. to also make it into the Derby field. Owned by MyRacehorse, he was third last time out in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks.

“He's a solid horse. And he's got 600 owners, so if we can get him in we'll make a lot of people happy.”

While Lukas will be the oldest trainer taking part in this Derby, his 25-year-old jockey, Keith Asmussen, the son of Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, will be among the youngest and the least experienced. But Lukas has taken a liking to him and is using him not only on Just Steel but his GI Kentucky Oaks candidate Lemon Muffin (Collected). Asmussen started his riding career in 2020 and this will be his first mount in a Triple Crown race.

“I go back a long way with his family,” Lukas said. “His grandfather and grandmother and I are very close friends. We went from South Dakota to Laredo, Texas together. We combined our stables. We've been close family friends forever. The young Keith has got such a good horse background and he is a really smart rider. He's got a master's degree, for crying out loud. He listens and he does what you want him to do. He makes very good decisions in the race. I understand experience-wise he is lacking but he's a real cool customer. He doesn't get all caught up in it. He is very solid. I will not be changing jockeys.”

Just Steel won't be one of the favorites, but Lukas has won plenty of big races with horses few people gave a chance to. He's won four Derbies but never lost the desire to win a fifth. It's just taken him a while to get back there, and he plans to make the most of the opportunity.

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Friday Insights: Fillies To The Fore On Keeneland Opening Day

4th-KEE, $100K, MSW, 3yo, f, 7f, 2:36 p.m.

BELLS BEACH (Curlin) went the way of Jeffrey Drown for $675,000 as a yearling at the Fasig-Tipton New York Saratoga Select Sale in 2022 and debuts Friday on Keeneland's opening day for trainer Chad Brown. Dam Luminance, a Grade I-placed and track record setting daughter of Tale of the Cat, twice passed through the auction ring for seven figures–most recently selling to Juddmonte Farms in foal to Gun Runner on a final bid of $1.25m at FTKNOV in 2022. Luminance is a half to SW Smart As Me (Malibu Moon) and MGSP Stellar Sound (Tapit). Third dam, MGISW Versailles Treaty, is responsible for GI Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf winner George Vancouver (Henrythenavigator) along with SW/GISP Saarland (Unbridled). Bells Beach will be only the second foal to race for her dam who saw more commercial success in the ring last year with her yearling Tapit filly RNA'ing for $700,000 at Keeneland. TJCIS PPS

7th-KEE, $110K, OC, 3yo, f, 6 1/2f, 4:12 p.m.

Dubbed a 'TDN Rising Star' with a gate-to-wire win on debut, Amor Fati (Liam's Map) returns to the races for the first time since her 5 1/2-furlong Gulfstream romp Feb. 11. Trained for her first start by Brittany Russell, the Gold Square-owned filly now runs out of the Jose D'Angelo barn as she tries winners for the time Friday. Luis Saez retains the mount. TJCIS PPS

10th-KEE, $100K, MSW, 3yo, f, 1 3/16mT, 5:48 p.m.

Guinevere (Justify), a $925,000 KEESEP grad, will switch surfaces off a third-place performance as the beaten favorite at first asking over the Turfway Tapeta Feb. 21. Racing for Wesley Ward for the partnership of MyRacehorse, Gainesway Stable and R.T. Racing Stable, she enters off a pair of bullet drills over the local surface (five furlongs in :58 3/5 {1/21} on Mar. 15 and five furlongs again in :59 4/5 {1/20} Mar. 29). TJCIS PPS

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