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The Kentucky Oaks Top 10 for Feb. 23

Doesn't anyone want to be No. 1?

At the beginning of the month, the 3-year-old filly picture looked pretty set. There were two big stars in Wonder Wheel (Into Mischief) and Hoosier Philly (Into Mischief) and then there was everyone else. Surely, one, if not both, would cruise through their preps and enter the GI Kentucky Oaks ready to finish the job. Then Wonder Wheel was defeated in the Suncoast S. as the 1-2 favorite, losing to 38-1 shot Dreaming of Snow (Jess's Dream). And then, a week later, Hoosier Philly threw in a dud, finishing a well-beaten third in the GII Risen Star S. in her 3-year-old debut. She was 2-5.

Within the span of a week, the division went from clear-cut to completely scrambled, with no clear leader. With 10 weeks to go, the Kentucky Oaks is anyone's race.

The GIII Honeybee S. at Oaklawn will be the lone highlight among Oaks preps this weekend. The GIII Santa Ysabel S. was scheduled for Saturday, but will now be run the following week as Santa Anita has canceled its races this weekend due to the forecast of heavy rain.

1) WONDER WHEEL (f, Into Mischief–Wonder Gal, by Tiz Wonderful) O-D. J. Stable LLC. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC & Clearsky Farm (Ky). T-Mark Casse. Sales history: $275,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Filly & MGISW, 6-4-2-0, $1,570,725. Last Start: 2nd Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs Feb. 11. Kentucky Oaks Points: 48.

She lost the top spot to Hoosier Philly after finishing second in the Suncoast, but is back on top because, well, someone has to be No. 1. Certainly, after her loss in the Suncoast, she deserves another chance. One would have expected that with her class she should have gotten by Dreaming of Snow. She had the entire length of the stretch to do so and couldn't get past her. But trainer Mark Casse didn't seem disappointed with the race and has said his filly will move forward off the effort. It's entirely possible and a win in the GI Ashland S. might cement her spot as the top threat for the Oaks. Next Start: GI Ashland S., Kee, Apr. 7.

2) FAIZA (f, Girvin–Sweet Pistol, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Michael L. Petersen. B-Brereton C. Jones (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $90,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL; $725,000 2yo '22 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: GISW, 3-3-0-0, $342,000. Last Start: Won GIII Las Virgenes S. at Santa Anita Jan. 28. Kentucky Oaks Points: 0.

With most of the attention in this division focused on Wonder Wheel and Hoosier Philly, the Southern California contingent has been largely overlooked, which could be a mistake because there's a lot of depth to that group. For now, Faiza looks to be the best of the bunch, a status she can solidify in the Santa Ysabel. Faiza has yet to do anything wrong. A $725,000 purchase at the 2022 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Two-Year-Olds in Training Sale, she's 3-for-3, won the GI Starlet S. and then beat the likes of Justique (Justify) and Pride of the Nile (Pioneerof the Nile) in the GIII Las Virgenes S. But she's yet to turn in the sort of powerful performance that earns a big speed figure that you would expect from a leading contender for the Kentucky Oaks. Maybe she will in the Santa Ysabel. Next Start: GIII Santa Ysabel S., SA, TBD.

3) HOOSIER PHILLY (f, Into Mischief–Tapella, by Tapit) O-Gold Standard Racing Stable, LLC. B-Candy Meadows, LLC (Ky). T-Thomas Amoss. Sales history: $510,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-1, $462,610. Last Start: 3rd GII Rachel Alexandra S. Feb. 18. Kentucky Oaks Points: 25.

Hoosier Philly | Coady

What happened to Hoosier Philly in the Rachel Alexandra? She looked nothing like the filly who was so impressive in her three starts at two. Trainer Tom Amoss was her biggest fan and proclaimed her to be the best horse he has ever trained. She just didn't have it in the Rachel Alexandra, finishing third, beaten 8 1/2 lengths. Her Beyer figure was a 70, nowhere close to what is needed to win at the Grade I level. “I was very disappointed because we had such high expectations,” Amoss said. “She broke well and then in her third or fourth stride the ground came out underneath her and she stumbled. That was a contributing factor in her effort.” Hoosier Philly returned to the track on Wednesday and Amoss will take his time before figuring out the next step. The GII Fair Grounds Oaks on March 25 looks like a logical spot, but the trainer said he is not ready to commit to any one race. “She came back to the track today and is healthy,” he said. “I anticipate a start with her within the next four or five weeks.” She stays among the top three in this poll only because there's some chance the Rachel Alexandra was an outlier and she will be back to her old self in her next start. Next Start: To Be Determined.

4) LEAVE NO TRACE (f, Outwork–Tanquerray, by Good Journey) O-WellSpring Stables. B-Red Cloak Farm, LLC (Ky). T-Philip Serpe. Sales history: $8,000 yrl '21 FTFFEB; $40,000 yrl '21 FTMOCT. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-2-1-1, $598,650. Last Start: 2nd GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies at Keeneland Nov. 4. Kentucky Oaks Points: 15.

When it comes to preparing the GI Spinaway S. winner for her 3-year-old debut in the GII Davona Dale S. on March 4, trainer Phil Serpe continues to take an unconventional route. Concerned about the condition of the main track at Gulfstream after a rainy period, he worked his filly twice on the Tapeta surface. He followed that up with a one-mile work on the dirt at Gulfstream on Feb. 19. Leave No Trace went in 1:47.81. “Those mile works are something I have done with a lot of horses going back to my Monmouth Park days,” Serpe said. “My concern with her was her fitness level. It seems like everybody works fast on the Tapeta course. As I thought about it more I thought we needed to get a good work into her on the dirt after having the last two works on Tapeta, which is why I worked her a mile. The works we do are slow mile works where we don't press on the horse. She did it pretty easily. She's a smart filly. She knows what she is doing out there and is an aggressive horse when she trains. So far so good.” Her biggest attribute is her consistency. While competing in the Spinaway, the GI Frizette S. and the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, she's never been worse than third. Next Start: GII Davona Dale S., GP, Mar. 4.

5) RED CARPET READY (f, Oscar Performance–Wild Silk, by Street Sense) O-Ashbrook Farm & Upland Flats Racing; B-Lynn B. Schiff (Ky); T-Rusty Arnold. Sales history: $180,000 ylr '21 FTSAUG; $100,000 RNA 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-3-0-0, $265,470. Last Start: Won GIII Forward Gal S. at Gulfstream Park Feb. 4. Kentucky Oaks Points: 20.

She's got a lot of ability, but does that mean she's a top Kentucky Oaks contender? It's a tough call. The daughter of Oscar Performance is three for three and is coming off an impressive win in the GIII Forward Gal S. But she's never run beyond seven furlongs or around two turns, so she has to prove that she can stretch out. Her pedigree certainly says that she can. The Davona Dale will be an important test. For Red Carpet Ready, a win there, at a mile, would mean she's very much a top contender for the Oaks. Next Start: GII Davona Dale S., GP, Mar. 4.

6) PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS (f, Into Mischief–Pretty City Dancer, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Godolphin (Ky). T-Brendan P. Walsh. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-4-0-1, $421,310. Last Start: Won GII Rachel Alexandra S. at Fair Grounds Feb. 18. Kentucky Oaks Points: 63.

Pretty Mischievous | Photo by Hodges Photography

She came into the Rachel Alexandra with decent credentials, three wins from four starts and a victory in the Untapable S. But she was totally overshadowed by Hoosier Philly. But she proved she belonged among the top names in the division with a three-quarter length win. The race got an 83 Beyer which, in a year where no one in this division has been posting big numbers, puts her in the mix. She's by Into Mischief, which means three of the top six in this poll are by the super sire. The dam, Pretty City Dancer (Tapit) won the 2016 Spinaway before selling for $3.5 million at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Fall Mixed Sale. Next Start: GI Ashland S., Kee, Apr. 7 or GII Fair Grounds Oaks, FG, Mar. 25.

7) JULIA SHINING (f, Curlin–Dreaming of Julia, by A.P. Indy) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Stonestreet Stables LLC. B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (Ky). T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-0-1, $204,075. Last Start: 3rd Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs Feb. 11. Kentucky Oaks Points: 16.

Her big sister, Malathaat (Curlin), was undefeated when she won the 2021 Kentucky Oaks. That's not going to happen with Julia Shining as she suffered her first career defeat when third in the Suncoast S. Even with her fast start, Malathaat kept on improving, winning an Eclipse Award as the champion 3-year-old filly in 2021 and another as the champion older mare last year. Is Julia Shining as good? Probably not. She had no excuse when third in the Suncoast. Her best Beyer figure to date is the 81 she got in the Suncoast. Malathaat got a 95 when winning the Oaks. There's a lot of upside with this filly but she will need to show more in the Ashland in order to look like a top threat for the Oaks. Next Start: GI Ashland S., Kee, Apr. 7.

8) THE ALYS LOOK (f, Connect–Foul Play, by Harlan's Holiday) O-Ike & Dawn Thrash. B-G. Watts Humphrey (Ky). T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $60,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW, 5-2-1-1, $150,528. Last Start: Won Silverbulletday S. at Fair Grounds Jan. 21. Kentucky Oaks Points: 24.

Trainer Brad Cox sat out the Rachel Alexandra with this one and will await the Fair Grounds Oaks. “She breezed (on Feb. 19) and is on target for the Fair Grounds Oaks,” Cox said. “We just didn't want to dance all the dances. Wanted to have some horse left for the spring and the rest of the year and we just thought it would be the right time to give her some time between races.” Cox's lineup for the Oaks isn't as deep as his Derby contingent, but he's got a few serious threats and this may be the best of them. She defeated stablemate Chop Chop (City of Light) to win the Silverbulletday S. It's worth noting that Chop Chop was fifth when last seen in the Rachel Alexandra. Next Start: GII Fair Grounds Oaks, FG, Mar. 25.

9) JUSTIQUE (f, Justify–Grazie Mille, by Bernardini) 'TDN Rising Star' O-C R K Stable, LLC. B-John D. Gunther & Eurowest Bloodstock (Ky). T-John A. Shirreffs. Sales history: $725,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW & MGSP, 4-2-0-2, $156,000. Last Start: 3rd GIII Las Virgenes S. at Santa Anita Jan. 28. Kentucky Oaks Points: 9.

The Santa Ysabel should answer every question there is about this filly. It could even be a must-win race for her as she needs to prove that she can win around two turns. That's the question that has been dogging her since she finished third in the Las Virgenes and never seriously threatened. Trainer John Shirreffs says he's confident that distance is not a problem. We'll see. There's nothing wrong with having a stakes quality sprinter in the barn. Next Start: GIII Santa Ysabel S., SA, TBD.

10) PRIDE OF THE NILE (f, Pioneerof the Nile–Inny Minnie, by Hard Spun) O-West Coast Stables, LLC. B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (Ky). T-Doug F. O'Neill. Sales history: $140,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISP, 5-2-2-0, $185,800. Last Start: 2nd GIII Las Virgenes S. at Santa Anita Jan. 28. Kentucky Oaks Points: 12.

If Faiza is the best 3-year-old filly on the West Coast, then Pride of the Nile is likely the second best. She has turned in a couple of big efforts in her last two starts, but hasn't been able to beat Faiza. She was second, beaten a head, in the Starlet and second again, beaten a half-length, in the Las Virgenes. Can she turn the tables on her rival? That will be answered in the Santa Ysabel. A consistent filly who has finished out of the money only once in her career, the question is whether or not she is good enough. Seeks to give two-time Derby winning trainer Doug O'Neill his first win in the Oaks. Next Start: GIII Santa Ysabel S., SA, TBD.

The post The Kentucky Oaks Top 10 for Feb. 23 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Earning Their Stripes: Chris Davis

Last year, we conducted a popular Q and A series called 'Smaller But Still Super,' where we featured veteran trainers who have built a competitive racing stable with relatively small numbers (click here to view the archive). This year, we will highlight trainers who have already cut their teeth as novice trainers, but now have a few years of experience under their belt and are looking to make a name for themselves as they grow their stable. We'll talk about the challenges that come with hanging out your single, advice for trainers setting out on their own, how the incoming class of young trainers differs from previous generations and more.

Arlington Park was one of Chris Davis' first loves and the 34-year-old conditioner is still quick to say that the now-closed historic track will always be his favorite place to watch racing. Davis developed a passion for the sport by following his parents, conditioner Liane Davis and assistant starter Hershell Davis, around the Chicago racing circuit. He worked for local trainers as a teenager and eventually ventured to other tracks across the country to serve as assistant for Wayne Catalano, Michael Stidham and Philip d'Amato.

Davis said that d'Amato was the one who gave him the push to go out on his own in the fall of 2016. It didn't take long for him to saddle his 100^th winner in 2021.

With around 30 horses in his stable and several graded stakes wins to his credit, Davis travels the Kentucky circuit throughout the majority of the year and races out of Gulfstream Park in the winter. Already this year, he has had two promising maiden winners on the Gulfstream turf in Dare To Dream Stable's Moon Cat (Malibu Moon) and Gary Broad's Royal Mende (Mendelssohn).

Royal Mende breaks his maiden in January at Gulfstream | Lauren King

What has been the key to your stable's growth since you first opened?

I started with two horses. Town and Country Farms gave me my first two and they've obviously had a lot of success over the years. Shannon Potter and Kiki Courtelis really jump started my career and I owe a lot to them. They gave me a lot of good quality horses from fairly early on, including my first stakes winner Moonlit Garden (Malibu Moon). She had been with Todd Pletcher in New York and they felt like she needed a bit more individual attention. I was riding basically all of my own horses and doing a lot of it myself. Her form was not very good when I got her. We individualized her and she ended up going back to New York a year and a half later and winning the Summer Colony S. She was also second in a stake at Monmouth and was beat by a nose in the GIII Houston Ladies Classic S. to none other than Midnight Bisou (Midnight Lute).

It has kind of been a grind since starting out. It's hard to break through as a trainer without the really big connections or the support of a big bloodstock agent or syndicate. Being 34 and with this being our sixth full year now, we've had a fair amount of success in finding stakes horses. We do well at the 2-year-old sales. We stay within our budget and still seem to come out with maiden winners, or maybe a group or listed winner.

What do you believe makes your stable unique?

I think the fact that I've been around to a lot of places from coast to coast and the Midwest. I've worked with a wide variety of horses on the track throughout my career, from the time with my parents to with Mike, Phil and Wayne. Being around good horses, you get a good sense of a good horse and certain horses will remind you of others.

It's about individual attention and trying to fine tune what you have. Obviously you can't train on some horses in a smaller stable like some of the bigger stables because they have more waiting to come in to you. When you're a smaller trainer, you have to be able to get the most out of what you have and still be conservative and keep them sound. I think being able to individualize and keep a horse healthy so it can campaign for longer is a big benefit that we have.

What has been the biggest thing you have learned since going out on your own?

Probably client management. The horses are easy for the most part. They do make fools out of all of us, there's no question about that, but client management is the biggest thing. Richard Mandella told me years ago that people are going to try to tell you what to do. Being able to work with clients is the toughest transition from going to an assistant to being on your own. It's about dealing with the clients on a daily basis, not just the horses.

I do try to work with everyone's needs on a very personal level. We're pretty respectful of what the client wants. Obviously I won't run one for a tag if an owner doesn't want to run for a tag. If we were able to place every horse where they needed to belong, we would all win a lot more races and you would see a lot more 25-30% trainers out there–not just a certain five guys.

If you could give one piece of advice to someone going out on their own this year, what would it be?

Be patient. It's going to test you physically and mentally. The stress level of a Thoroughbred trainer, especially one starting out, is no joke.

Mike told me when I was struggling with two to four horses that you have to keep showing up and keep grinding. I took a lot of weight from his interview that he gave after winning the Dubai World Cup when he said, “It was finally my time.” He had been training horses for 40 years.

People will say, “That trainer came from out of nowhere,” when in all actuality he has been training for 20 years. Or people will say, “This guy is untouchable,” when maybe he wasn't five years ago, but now all of a sudden people are flocking to him. That's what happens because numbers breed success. You have more options, more liberty and you have a different clientele.

What is something that you think this incoming generation of trainers does better than the generations before them?

That's hard to say. Every generation has had to overcome certain things. You think back to when D. Wayne Lukas and Jack Van Berg really started the era of super trainers. Now it's just kind of keeping up with the Joneses as far as when you don't have that many horses coming in like the bigger stables, you have to be able to individualize.

I think the trainers just coming in like myself are facing a lot more medication overhaul than what was previously imposed. There is a lot more veterinary regulations.

Also the expense of owning a racehorse has gone up tremendously, which has caused some of the little owners who would potentially give a startup guy a horse or two to kind of just fizzle out. We're kind of seeing it go back to the “Sport of Kings” in that it's the super wealthy or the big syndicates that are really taking over. That's good and bad. If you're churning for those guys, it's great. If you're not, you're on the outside looking in. When you go to a sale, you know the guys you're going to go up against and you know the money behind them, so you're hoping you can get lucky.

Moonlit Garden wins the 2018 Summer Colony S. | Sarah Andrew

Who is your favorite horse that you've ever had in your stable?

I have a horse named City Drifter (Temple City) who is one of my all-time favorites. He's a barn favorite. He's a very honest horse. I've won six allowance races with him. He's won eight out of 26 starts. He seems like he always shows up and gives us what we have. He's a beautiful, stocky horse and is very easy to be around.

I also just retired a horse named Jimmy D (Haynesfield) who was the definition of a war horse. I got him when he was running for $5,000 in California. Subsequently as a 7-year-old after almost 70 starts, he won his first allowance race. He ended up winning 11 in his lifetime. I just retired him sound because he was at the end of his career and we hope to make him a stable pony.

If you could spend one afternoon at the track enjoying the day (i.e. not working), which track would you go to?

Well they closed it. Arlington Park. That's home and it was one of the best facilities to watch racing. I've been to most places in the country at some point or another and Arlington was probably the premier spot to go watch racing.

Del Mar, Santa Anita and Keeneland are up there with Arlington in terms of aesthetics, but as a patron, the accessability and layout of Arlington was probably the best.

If you aren't at the track, what can you be found doing?

Playing golf and taking care of a six-month-old baby.

If one change was made to racing that would make your life easier, what would it be?

There are a lot of things. In terms of medication reform, higher surveillance in the barns would be key to level the playing field. We had the Servis and Navarro scandal, but that stuff is still very prevalent today in my opinion. I would never be opposed to them putting cameras in every stall at every racetrack throughout the country.

What is your biggest hot take? It can be racing-related or completely random.

Time is only relevant in prison. A horse may work fast or maybe run a race slow, but you might have caught a fast track or a slow track or your horse might have just preferred the surface that day. There might have been a speed bias or a closing bias. I think people overestimate times.

Click here for more from our 'Earning Their Stripes' series.

The post Earning Their Stripes: Chris Davis appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Derby Top 12: Front Four Unchanged Inside 75-Day Mark

There's been a mid-season reshuffling at the back of the pack within this week's rankings. The next significant target date on the GI Kentucky Derby trail that could shake up the Top 12 leaders will be the trio of preps in Florida, California and New York Mar. 4.

1) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $544.275 Last start: 1st GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Park, Jan. 28. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight is the legitimate kingpin atop the crop as we crest the 75-day mark until the Derby. But a two-race foundation–no matter how wowing those performances were–understandably still seems a touch precarious by conventional Derby-assessment standards.

After ransacking the GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Jan. 28 in his 2023 coming-out party, this sales-topping son of Uncle Mo wasn't nominated to the next leg in the Oaklawn series, which is this Saturday's GII Rebel S. Until his connections disclose details, the date and place of Arabian Knight's next start remains the most sought-after secret on the Derby trail (both for fans who want to see him race and the connections of contenders who want to avoid him).

Last week's federal court ruling denying Bob Baffert an injunction to avoid a Churchill Downs ban on his Derby participation is already resulting in some movement of his sophomore contenders to other trainers. But that news, if or when it comes for Arabian Knight, shouldn't overshadow the fact that this classy colt has sky's-the-limit potential augmented by a confident demeanor and a blazing natural quickness that doesn't cross the line into being speed-crazy.

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $1,595,150. Last start: 1st GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

Divisional champ Forte is five works into his training for the Mar. 4 GII Fountain of Youth S., and Saturday's five-eighths breeze at Palm Beach Downs was a bullet in 1:01.41 (1/10). For months, trainer Todd Pletcher has articulated a two-prep path to Louisville, with the second race expected to be either the GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream or the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland (site of Forte's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile triumph).

Leggy and athletic in the same manner as his sire, Violence, this 'TDN Rising Star' stands out because of his ability to carve out ideal tactical positioning to set up a powerful punch off the far turn, and Forte won three Grade I stakes last season from seven furlongs up to 1 1/16 miles.

Pletcher has twice trained a 2-year-old Eclipse Award-winning colt who won the Juvenile. How did they fare in their comebacks?

In January 2013, Shanghai Bobby ran second at even-money in his 3-year-old debut at Gulfstream in the GIII Holy Bull S. In March 2011, Pletcher found a cushy winning spot for the returning Uncle Mo, who was 1-20 in the betting to beat four others in a non-graded $100,000 stakes at Gulfstream.

Regardless of what you think of Forte himself, be aware that historically, the Fountain of Youth has been a notorious trap for high-profile favorites. Although the chalk has won the last two editions, the public's choice has gone down in defeat in 12 of the last 16 runnings, including one demotion via disqualification.

3) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GP Allowance/Optional Claiming, Feb, 4. KY Derby Points: 0

Two weeks to the day since his scintillating one-turn-mile allowance win at Gulfstream, this $1.3-million KEESEP colt returned to the worktab Saturday with an unhurried :50.93 half-mile breeze (27/33) at Palm Beach Downs.

While stablemate Forte, ranked above at No. 2, sports the more accomplished resume, this 'TDN Rising Star' is more of the “now” colt considering the two impressive scores he's racked up since Dec. 17.

His Beyer Speed Figures signal legitimacy with room for improvement, while cresting upward over three races (73-87-92), and Tapit Trice also rates highly from a “how he did it” visual perspective that emphasizes his ability to build serious far-turn momentum.

True, he'll head into the month of March without a race at two turns. But with a pedigree anchored by sire Tapit and a female family clustered with stayers capable of fast clockings (A.P. Indy, Seattle Slew, Secretariat), this isn't the type of prospect you'd doubt would be able to sustain his speed over added ground.

4) ROCKET CAN (c, Into Mischief–Tension, by Tapit) O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc.; B-Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales history: $245,000 RNA Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $249,738. Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S., Feb. 4. KY Derby Points: 20

Rocket Can got bumped and was away last when sprinting seven furlongs in his Saratoga debut Aug. 6, yet he still managed to pick off half the pack to finish fifth for a trainer (Bill Mott) not known for springing first-out winners.

He then ran an uninspiring seventh, beaten 16 lengths on closing weekend at the Spa over the same distance, behind eventual two-time stakes winner Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro).

But a transition to two turns Oct. 30 at Churchill brought advancement. This Into Mischief gray broke running from post 10 in the slop, staked out an assertive stalking position, got first run at the two pacemakers a quarter mile from the wire, then held sway in a length-of-stretch showdown.

He almost prevailed next time out in a Nov. 26 first-level allowance, again at 1 1/16 miles, losing by only half a length while engaging in another deep-race tussle, and although he finished second, Rocket Can gave the impression he's not the type to back down from stretch slugfests.

His Holy Bull S. score Feb. 4 was more impressive than the tepid 82 Beyer it earned, because the relatively low fig is offset by the ground Rocket Can gave up on both bends before unleashing another focused, mentally intent finish. Right now this colt rates as the type of Derby prospect who isn't likely to dominate or scare away the competition. But his efficiency, resilience, and willingness to mix it up when challenged are all valuable, intangible assets.

5) CAVE ROCK (c, Arrogate–Georgie's Angel, by Bellamy Road) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman; B-Anne and Ronnie Sheffer Racing LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $210,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $550,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 4-3-1-0, $748,000. Last start: 2nd GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 0

Cave Rock, the beaten favorite in last November's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile when second behind Forte, is on target to be the latest-returning Top 12 contender of the 2023 season. He has no publicly declared prep race on his radar, and this 'TDN Rising Star' is just two half-mile breezes into training for his sophomore debut.

After starting the season ranked at No. 3, he's been leapfrogged on this list by colts with more recent form. But the gravitas of what this fullback-sized son of Arrogate accomplished at age two (three straight wins, including two in Grade I stakes and one with a gaudy 104 Beyer) will still merit respect when he finally hits the entries.

Cave Rock has been able to generate an intimidatingly high cruising speed up to 1 1/16 miles. But what most Derby prognosticators will be watching for is whether or not he has outgrown his hot-headed tendencies. This colt's loss in the Breeders' Cup was at least partially attributable to him getting visibly keyed-up before the race and then getting sucked into sparring with a 70-1 long shot through an imprudent :22.90 opening quarter.

6) FAUSTIN (c, Curlin–Hard Not to Like, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael L Petersen. B-DATTT Farm (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $285,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $800,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-1-0, $80,200. Last start:2nd GIII San Vicente S., Jan. 29. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.
'TDN Rising Star' Faustin has now fired two bullet moves at four and five furlongs after being outgunned by a stablemate when second in the GII San Vicente S. Jan. 29.
He was tasked with sprinting seven furlongs in that race (shorter than what his pedigree indicates he's capable of) and was forced to try and reel in a loose-on-the-lead favorite under less-than-ideal tactical circumstances. Still, he upped his Beyer by two points off a powerful debut win (89 to 91), and that learning experience, combined with his being by Curlin out of a Hard Spun mare, should pave the way for an improvement in a two-turn stakes.
Faustin is a high-energy gray who, in his Dec. 26 debut, was unfazed by a slow start and twice having to switch off heels at the head of the homestretch.
It is a touch concerning, though, that the horses Faustin beat in that MSW have only managed a collective 1-for-7 record in their next outs, indicating he roughed up a subpar bunch.

7) HEJAZI (c, Bernardini–G Note, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc.; B-Mary & Chester Broman (Ky); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $3,550,000 2yo '22 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-1-2-1, $108,200. Last Start: 1st SA Maiden Special Weight, Jan. 15. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.
Hejazi broke his maiden in start number four for trainer Bob Baffert Jan. 15, but over the weekend got transferred to trainer Tim Yakteen as per the nominations list for the one-turn-mile Mar. 4 GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct.
A $3.55-million EASMAY sale topper, this New York-bred son of Bernardini has the unusual distinction of having run a 100 Beyer Speed Figure in a losing maiden effort (back on Sept. 10 at Del Mar), and he's never been off the board (including when third as a maiden in the GI American Pharoah S. Oct. 8).
He was able to set the pace under pressure at the rail in his MSW victory over 6 1/2 furlongs after stalking the pace in his first three attempts.

8) VERIFYING (c, Justify–Diva Delite, by Repent) O-Westerberg, Mrs. John Magnier, Jonathan Poulin, Derrick Smith & Michael Table; B-Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-2-1-0, $260,150. Last Start: 1st Opt. Clm at Oaklawn Park Jan. 14. Kentucky Derby Points: 4.
Verifying, a May 11 foal who is a half-brother to 2019 champion older dirt distaffer Midnight Bisou, drew the rail for Saturday's Rebel S. at Oaklawn. He's forced the issue in three of his four lifetime races, so that post should play to his advantage by allowing him to secure a forwardly placed ground-saving spot.
This $775,000 KEESEP son of Justify's career started with an 85-Beyer sprint win at the Spa, followed by a second in the GI Champagne S., and then a trouble-at-the-start sixth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
Freshened until Jan. 14, Verifying roared back to the winner's circle with a 97-Beyer, first-level allowance win at Oaklawn. The second- and third-place finishers out of that race have both since come back to win allowance miles in subsequent starts.

9) ARTHUR'S RIDE (c, Tapit–Points of Grace, by Point Given) O-Karl & Cathi Glassman; B-Helen & Joseph Barbazon & Tapit Syndicate (Fl); T-William Mott. Sales history: $250,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-1-2-0, $93,800. Last Start: 1st Maiden Special Weight at Gulfstream Feb. 11. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.
Arthur's Ride started his career in the same two seven-furlong MSW contests at Saratoga as fellow-gray stablemate Rocket Can ranked above at No. 4, and he finished second on both occasions.
This $250,000 KEESEP colt resurfaced for trainer Bill Mott Feb. 11 at Gulfstream in a one-turn mile, and as the 2-1 second choice he really caught the eye by taking pace pressure at the rail from the 6-5 favorite for most of the race.
He actually lost but clawed back the lead on two occasions through the turn, and then after he dispatched the chalk, Arthur's Ride ably repulsed what looked like a winning bid from the third choice in the betting.
His damsire Point Given was the beaten fave in the 2001 Derby, but won the GI Preakness S., GI Belmont S. and GI Travers S., while maternal grandsire Thunder Gulch won the 1995 Derby, Belmont, and Travers.

10) INSTANT COFFEE (c, Bolt d'Oro–Follow No One, by Uncle Mo) O-Gold Square LLC. B-Sagamore Farm (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $200,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-3-0-0, $442,815. Last Start: Won Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds. Kentucky Derby Points: 32.
Trainer Brad Cox opted not to aim for this past Saturday's Risen Star S. with Instant Coffee, saying he will instead point straight to the Mar. 25 GII Louisiana Derby coming off this colt's last-to-first win in the GIII Lecomte S. Jan. 21.
This son of Bolt d'Oro had been absent from the work tab for four weeks, but he was finally back in action with a moderate :49.80 half-mile breeze (34/109) at Fair Grounds Feb. 18.
That plan of race spacing will leave a nine-week gap for Instant Coffee to try to make the leap from 1 1/16 miles to 1 3/16 miles, and then another six weeks off until the 10-furlong Kentucky Derby. Cox has expressed a belief that this light-on-his-feet colt should relish those longer distances.
But Instant Coffee hasn't had the most arduous path to victory in either of his two stakes wins, having beaten only one current Top 12 foe in either the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. or the Lecomte, and that makes it tough to project how he'll fare when faced with more intense competition.

11) RED ROUTE ONE (c, Gun Runner–Red House, by Tapit) O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: 6-1-1-1, $313,575. Last Start: 2nd in Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.
This Saturday's Rebel S. at 1 1/16 miles might not be the spot where Red Route One finally uncorks the “put it all together” type of stretch run he's shown flashes of being capable of. But with a stout Gun Runner out of a Tapit mare breeding line, he's looming as a longer-the-better Derby prospect who one of these days is going to catch the right pace setup and a clear enough trip to outrun long odds.
He already has a sturdy foundation of six lifetime races, all at a mile or longer, and this homebred for Winchell Thoroughbreds was most recently a best-of-the-rest second when rallying from last behind No. 1-ranked Arabian Knight in the Southwest S. four weeks ago.
He had significant trip trouble and/or encountered ground loss in all three of his stakes attempts at age two, yet he still managed a couple of decent third- and fourth-place tries.
However, this deep-closing chestnut has still never won on dirt, with his only victory coming over a mile at Kentucky Downs nearly six months ago.

12) GEAUX ROCKET RIDE (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Beyond Grace, by Uncle Mo) O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-OXO Equine LLC (Ky); T-Richard Mandella. Sales history: $350,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $40,200. Last Start: Won Maiden Special Weight at Santa Anita Jan. 29.
Is it too deep into the prep season to tout a sprinter who wired the field at first asking onto the list? By conventional standards, yes. But convention on the Derby trail has long since flown the coop, thanks to the stylishly late-on-the-scene Justify in 2018 (a Feb. 18 debut), and the overall less-is-more mindset in bringing along sophomore prospects.
Yet when Hall-of-Fame conditioner Richard Mandella is the trainer of a flashy winning firster like Geaux Rocket Ride, you pay attention.
This colt is aiming for the Mar. 4 GII San Felipe S. at 1 1/16 miles after administering a full-bore clock-cleaning of a Santa Anita MSW crew over six furlongs Jan. 29. That display of dominance was timed in 1:09.52 and featured a decisive swat-down of the 1-2 favorite before “Geaux” rolled home by 5 3/4 lengths. This $350,000 FTKJUL son of Candy Ride (Arg) earned a 92 Beyer for the effort.
Underscoring that he doesn't make the trip to Louisville unless he's confident he has the right horse, Mandella hasn't had a Kentucky Derby starter since 2004. But in 2019 he was on the cusp of saddling the imposing favorite, Omaha Beach, before having to scratch the colt several days before the Derby because of an entrapped epiglottis.

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Agri/Gate Management Aims to Enhance the Ownership Experience

Six years ago, Landon Jones and Dawson Guhle got connected through the sport of horse racing. Now, they're preparing to launch a platform that they hope can do the same for others.

In 2021, Jones and Guhle formed the idea for Agri/Gate Management, an app and web-based platform that could be used to simplify communication and streamline the flow of data in the racing industry. They envisioned that through their software, they could remove the barriers to entry for new participants through education, improve the traceability of horses on and off the track, and contribute to the sustainability of the industry for future generations.

Guhle has been involved in the sport for over a decade as a breeder based in Alberta. He met Jones, who was running a sales agency at the time, when Jones became interested in getting involved in racing.

Jones bought in on a horse campaigned by Guhle's Lucky 13 Racing syndicate and was hooked from there. He soon became a partner on another Lucky 13 Racing horse named Maria's Song (Marine Landing). When Maria's Song made his debut on Canadian Derby Day and won going away, Jones brought over 50 people with him into the winner's circle at Century Mile Racetrack.

“It looked like we had won the Super Bowl,” Guhle recalled with a laugh. “But I think that really sparked something for both of us in seeing how excited everyone was and the enjoyment of bringing people together to share that moment. Racing can bring those thrills that you can't really experience anywhere else. It got the wheels turning of how we could bring more people in.”

As a newcomer to racing with a knack for business, Jones saw an opportunity in the sport and a need to bridge the gap between the traditional racing community and a new generation of industry participants. Through this train of thought, he and Guhle formed the idea for Agri/Gate Management.

“In my first few years in the industry, I saw a void as far as a lack of transparency and a lack of communication,” Jones said. “We wanted to build a platform that would streamline communication and billing, create a welcoming environment for newcomers, and re-engage the traditional participants.”

The software is now in its beta version and Agri/Gate is well on its way to launching in the app store in the next few months. Trainers will be able to communicate directly with their owners via the app by sending updates on their horses and organizing administrative records like licensing, billing notes and veterinary reports.

The app will be integrated with Equibase, allowing users to search any horse that is on Equibase and find basic data. Privacy settings will be in place so that only users associated with a specific horse as an owner or trainer persona will be able to see the information shared by the horse's trainer.

Along with increased transparency with horses in training, another key initiative of Agri/Gate is to improve traceability when a horse is no longer on the racetrack. Once a horse is retired, a trainer can pass on the ability to share updates to the new person responsible for the horse. That new managerial persona can share updates within the app so that former stakeholders in the horse can track the horse into its second career.

“These types of things are becoming really important for the sustainability of the industry,” Guhle said. “People don't just accept not having any idea of where a horse went anymore.”

“If we really look at the well-being of the animal and the traceability aspect of the software, I think that's going to be the biggest benefit to the industry as a whole,” added Jones.

Education is another main goal of Agri/Gate. On the app, fans will be able to access informative videos and other educational content.

“Getting the fans on the platform is almost as important to us as the communication piece between trainer and owner,” Jones explained. “One of our key initiatives is converting fans to owners. Syndicates may be able to market on the platform to new potential owners. I think that's going to really provide a new wave to the ownership side.”

Jones said they envision that users will be able to access the platform through some type of subscription model. While all the details are still being finalized, Jones and Guhle are firm in their vision for the platform as the date of Agri/Gate's official launch approaches.

“We want to work with the industry to reduce the barrier of entry. We want to contribute to the sport with a software that is going to help the typical fan get engaged and learn about ownership.”

To learn more about Agri/Gate, click here to visit their website.

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