This Side Up: No Proxy For The One And Only

Unfortunately, they only have one Two Phil's (Hard Spun). If they had another, presumably making Four Phils in all, then they might yet have the consolation of a proxy in the big races through the second half of the season. As it is, we can only offer our sympathy to the heartbroken team around a horse that brought us such precious cheer during what is proving a challenging year for our sport.

Because that's the whole point, really. The big programs would be able to temper their disappointment, on losing the services even of a horse as accomplished as Two Phil's, with the likelihood that an equivalent talent will eventually come along. And it was precisely because the circle of friends who launched Two Phil's towards the top of his crop did so by such accessible investment–he's out of the only Thoroughbred ever purchased by the Sagan family, a $40,000 daughter of a failed stallion–that so many of us identified with their cause. They made us feel we all had a chance.

Two Phil's, moreover, had been progressing from a somewhat sentimental, blue-collar rooting interest to a perfectly credible candidate for what feels an open sophomore championship. He was the only contributor to the GI Kentucky Derby pace that managed to hang tough, and looked better than ever on his first start since in the GIII Ohio Derby last weekend. How maddeningly typical of this game, then, that even in opening up new horizons his owners should suddenly reach a dead end.

They must now regroup, clear their heads and find Two Phil's his best chance at stud. His maternal family contains its challenges, but that is true of a lot of good stallions and something, after all, is demonstrably functioning in his genetic make-up. There is an increasing burden on sons of War Front and Hard Spun to maintain the shortest available connection to their breed-shaping sire Danzig, and Two Phil's certainly bears an auspicious resemblance to his excellent sire. Both proved their adaptability by winning the same Derby trial on a synthetic surface, before proceeding to finish second at Churchill. On the right farm, I'm sure that Two Phil's has every chance of writing a new chapter in the fairytale; and his connections have played their cards too faultlessly to need any help in determining which farm might be the right one.

In the meantime, we must just thank them for introducing this authentic ray of sunshine into our present darkness. As I've noted before, that rogue apostrophe actually became part of what the horse stood for: a symbol of his quirky, aberrational advent among those who set expensive standards at the top of the market. He arrived as a defiant Chicago gesture, many in his entourage having been deprived of their natural habitat–and one of the jewels of the racing planet–by the closure of Arlington Park by the very people who host the Derby.

One of those cast adrift from Arlington was trainer Larry Rivelli, whose prospects of replacing the irreplaceable should at least be enhanced by having drawn national attention to gifts already well familiar on his home circuits. In this bittersweet week, indeed, Rivelli has saddled six winners from nine starters; and these included two “Derby” winners in one weekend, with Act A Fool (Oscar Performance) making it four off the reel in the Hawthorne Derby last Sunday. Hopefully Jareth Loveberry, also integral to the horse's development, will now be able to consolidate, as well, having earned his stripes all the way through from Great Lakes Downs.

Proxy (outside) wins the GII Oaklawn Handicap | Coady Photography

But if some of these guys end up never quite retrieving the same heights, at least they all seized their opportunity when it came. And they would surely choose the shorter ride they took with Two Phil's over the “better” luck experienced by many others, in being able to restore a horse to training after being derailed before the Classics?

It's not as though there's a piece of paper anyone gets to sign, but how would you choose between Two Phil's or a horse like, say, Proxy (Tapit)? Having disappeared for 10 months after trying to get to his own crop's Derby via the Fair Grounds trials, Proxy lines up for the GI Stephen Foster S. on Saturday as a mature horse, with every prospect of building on what for now remains a fairly marginal prizemoney edge over Two Phil's. Since his comeback, he has also availed himself of a Grade I (in the Clark last fall). He's an admirable creature, in a field replete with similar types. But if you were in a crew that might very well only ever have one shot at the big time, would you not be swung by the fact that every Thoroughbred foal, from the moment it slithers into the straw, has one chance–and one chance only–to take you on the walk over for the Derby?

In the winter of 2021-22, certainly, the McPeek barn wasn't dreaming of the 2023 Stephen Foster for Smile Happy (Runhappy) and Rattle N Roll (Connect). The former at least made it to the Derby before his disappearance, but I'm delighted to see him back thriving now. He was bred by the charming Xavier Moreau, from a $57,000 daughter of Pleasant Tap. That was about as much as Xavier had ever spent on a mare, and tragically he lost her almost as soon as Smile Happy had emerged.

That's the thing about this game. Yes, absolutely, your little guys can beat the billionaires by breeding a Smile Happy, or a Two Phil's. But nor will they get any special treatment from Lady Luck, just because all their eggs might be in a single basket.

The only answer is an old one: “Gather ye rosebuds while ye may.” If that can be in May, and get you anywhere near that blanket of roses, so much the better.

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Saturday Insights: 2-Year-Old Colts Top Action At Ellis

4th-ELP, $120K, Msw, 2yo, 6f, 2:13 p.m.

EDIFIED (Tapit), a half-brother to GI La Brea S. winner Constellation (Bellamy Road), makes his afternoon debut Saturday for owner Courtlandt Farms and trainer Steve Asmussen. A $650,000 yearling purchase out of Keeneland September last autumn, the colt is out of the stakes-winning mare For Royalty, who brought a final bid of $2.1m from Summer Wind Equine at the 2017 Keeneland November Sale. For Royalty is herself a half-sister to champion imported 2-year-old colt in Puerto Rico El Viento (El Corredor) and GSW/GISP Kiss to Remember (Big Brown) while Edified's third dam produced full-siblings MGISW Spun Sugar (Awesome Again) and GI Hill 'n' Dale Cigar Mile H. victor Daaher.

Racing as a homebred for Cypress Creek Equine, Django (Medaglia d'Oro) is a half-brother to GISW Finley'sluckycharm (Twirling Candy). Under his third dam is a host of graded-stakes performers including: MGISW Pure Clan (Pure Prize), SW/GISP Princesa Carolina (Tapit), MGSW Greater Good (Intidab), GISW Sky Diva (Sky Mesa) and SW/MGISP Quick Little Miss (Freud).

Racing for Naoya Yoshida, Normandy Hero (Omaha Beach) enters off a best-of-68 drill June 23, going four furlongs in :47 4/5. His dam's half-sister produced GIII Schuylerville S. winner Pretty Birdie (Bird Song) while his third dam is a half to champion 3-year-old filly Bird Town (Cape Town) and GI Belmont S. winner Birdstone (Grindstone). TJCIS PPS

5th-BEL, $90K, Msw, 3yo/up, 1mT, 3:09 p.m.

One of only two first-time starters facing ten rivals, Memphis (Gun Runner) makes his debut after bringing $850,000 as a yearling at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Sale. The colt's third dam, Quiet Dance, produced Horse of the Year Saint Liam (Saint Ballado), GISW Funtastic (More Than Ready), and Quiet Giant (Giant's Causeway), the dam of this runner's sire Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg}). TJCIS PPS

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Pat Cummings Joins The TDN Writers’ Room Podcast

Computer Assisted Wagering (CAW) has been a hot topic of late. What we know is that there are a handful gamblers that use computer algorithms to formulate their wagers, are allowed to make their bets at the very last second and receive substantial rebates. But there's a lot we don't know, like how much are they betting, what pools they most prefer and what affect has that had on the “regular” player? In his latest report for the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation (TIF), entitled Sharks & Minnows, TIF Executive Director Pat Cummings dug into the issue. To find out more about his findings, the TDN Writers' Room podcast presented by Keeneland was joined this week by Cummings. He was the Green Group Guest of the Week.

Using data from Del Mar, Cummings concluded that CAW players are betting more each year and that the amount of betting from “everyone else” is declining.

“Not only are the sharks growing, but the minnows are declining,” he said. “For the first time in this paper, were able to really separate how the CAW play has grown and how all other customers have in almost every pool shrunk. Total handle figures are often marketed in the industry press releases, they're touted. It looks like on an annual basis that not a whole lot has changed. That's not telling us the accurate picture. For years now, the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation has wanted to really dive into who's betting, how are they betting, how are they participating and how is the market changing? What we're seeing now more clearly than ever before is what's happening with all other customers. We're talking about people that may bet $10 a year or maybe even $2 million a year. They are a smaller percentage of the pools and declining.”

When asked if this could lead to a “doomsday” scenario, whereby the “sharks” have driven all the “minnows” out of the game, Cummings said that is in fact a concern.

“I'd call it a real threat,” he said. “And I would suggest that some of the biggest sharks are eating some of the smaller ones too.”

He estimated that CAW players now account for 33% of the total handle in U.S. racing

Cummings is not in favor of banning CAW players. He recognizes that if they go away overall handle would plummet, which could be catastrophic. The answer he says is to find ways to level the playing field when it comes to the sharks versus the minnows, starting with the takeout.

“Takeout rates have not come down commensurate with all of this money coming in (from CAW players) at low price points and driven by technology,” he said. “That's the opposite experience that investors have had in almost all other areas, where we have seen costs for customers come crashing down. The days of the $35 stock commission are long gone. And yet 50, 60, maybe even 70% of all trading on the stock market now is high-frequency trading. Ordinary investors in 401Ks and IRAs, regular mutual fund holders, exchange traded funds, different products have been created to allow ordinary investors to buy and hold. And their costs have come down from where they were 20 years ago. We have not seen that same evolution in American horse racing wagering, which remains one of the most expensive gambles out there.”

Cummings also called on the industry to end all jackpot bets. He has found that not only do they keep money out of circulation by cutting down on churn, but that the CAW players often come in and take home a disproportionate amount of the pool at the expense of the regular player.

“If you run a parimutuel wagering business and your goal is to keep collecting commissions on parimutuel wagering, then why introduce a bet that limits the number of times that a customer can keep coming back to your window and churning their money?” he said. “You're going in the complete opposite direction to all traditional business logic, which is you should drive customers back into your wagering pools. Yet, tracks continued to persist with these bets. The jackpots need to go as quickly as possible. Tracks need to revert to a traditional play, get that daily payout, get that churn up. The sport needs churn. It's better for every stakeholder along the way.”

Elsewhere on the podcast, which is also sponsored by Coolmore,https://lanesend.com/  the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association, Kentucky Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders,  1/st Racing, WinStar Farm, Lane's End, XBTV.com and https://www.threechimneys.com/ West Point Thoroughbreds, the team of Bill Finley, Randy Moss and T.D. Thornton, took a look at the win by Two Phil's (Hard Spun) in the GIII Ohio Derby and his subsequent injury and retirement. There was a look back at the Royal Ascot meet, where one of the highlights was the win by the U.S. based 2-year-old filly Crimson Advocate (Nyquist) in the G2 Queen Mary S., and a look ahead at Saturday's GI Stephen Foster S. at Ellis Park. The podcastwrapped up with a discussion on a new proposed rule by the New York Gaming Commission which would require all horses to undergo checks by a veterinarian 72 hours prior to a race or a workout.

Click here to watch the Writers' Room podcast or here for the audio-only version.

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Friday Insights: Daughter Of Distaff Winner Blue Prize Debuts At Ellis

5th-ELP, $120K, Msw, 2yo, f, 5f, 1:18 p.m.

The first foal out of MGISW Blue Prize (Arg) (Pure Prize), who sold for $5m to OXO Equine out of the 2019 Fasig-Tipton Night of the Stars Sale, PLAYBACK (Into Mischief) hails from a successful South American family including her dam's half-sister, Argentinian champion older mare Blue Stripe (Arg). Further back in the family is GSW/G1SP Far Away Love (Arg) (Violence). An OXO Equine homebred, Playback enters off a best-of-four work, going five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 for trainer Paulo Lobo.

Opposing her from the inside gate, Love to Eat (Mitole) brought a final bid of $230,000 from this past year's OBS March sale and is out of a half to MGSW Ventana (Toccet). TJCIS PPS

2nd-GP, $50K, Msw, 3yo, 1m 70yds (AWT), 1:20 p.m.

Purchased as a $650,000 yearling out of Keeneland September by Repole Stable and St Elias Stable, Make Decisions (Into Mischief) is a gelded son of GI Alabama S. runner up Joint Return (Include) making his first start for trainer Todd Pletcher. TJCIS PPS

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