Value Sires Part IV: Moving On Up

It is perhaps at this level of the market that bookings have not yet been finalised for this year's matings. While a number of those named here have since moved up in fee bracket on the back of success with runners and subsequent market response, there is still plenty of value to be found in the hope that stallions coming through could be similarly upwardly mobile.

The aim of this exercise has been to show the average profit for stallions at each of four different levels of the market according to their yearling prices of last year. Those youngsters were of course conceived in 2020, and the table takes into account the stallions' fees at that time plus a general keep fee for the mare and foal/yearling as well as sundry costs and sales expenses of £20,000. Only stallions showing an average profit with five or more yearlings sold last year have featured in these tables and assessments have already been published for stallions standing at £50,000 and above, between £20,000 and £49,999, and earlier this week for those at £10,000 to £19,999.

Next week we will also consider the value among those sires who have not yet had yearlings at the sales, but for now we will deal with the end of the market that will particularly resonate with a wide range of smaller breeders, involving stallions who were standing at less than £10,000 in 2020.

We can sadly discount the name at the top of the list as Adlerflug (Ger) is no longer with us. The German champion died in April 2021, halfway through covering the mares who will have provided his small final crop. This penultimate crop was not large either, which tends to be the norm for Germany, but his yearling results reflect what was then Adlerflug's growing international status on the track. He was standing at his highest level when he died, but even then a €16,000 fee looked incredibly reasonable. With this class act no longer available we can look instead to his sons at stud, which include the brilliant Arc winner Torquator Tasso (Ger), who is about to embark on his first season at Gestut Auenquelle, and the German Derby winner In Swoop (Ire), who covered a large book at the Beeches Stud in Co Waterford and whose first foals are expected imminently. In Swoop's full-brother and fellow Group 1 winner Ito (Ger) was recently transferred from Germany to stand at Yorton Stud in Wales.

Still very much in active service and now flying high beyond this tier is Mehmas (Ire), a horse we've heard plenty about over the last few years and it is easy to imagine that will continue. The son of Acclamation (GB) actually stood at his lowest fee in 2020 of €7,500 in his fourth season but then his first runners woke everyone up to his prowess and he hasn't looked back, climbing to €25,000 then €50,000 and now €60,000. There will be no trouble encouraging mare owners to use him even at this level, and as our table shows, his first runners helped Mehmas's second crop of yearlings to sell for an average price which was 11.6 times his fee back then.

He will soon face competition from his own sons as three of them — Minzaal (Ire), Persian Force (Ire) and Caturra (Ire) — have already been retired to studs in Ireland and Britain and he can be regarded as one of the most exciting young stallions in Europe.

Ardad (Ire) was a year behind Mehmas in retiring to stud and the yearlings shown here represent his smallest crop of only 19. Once his first runners hit the track in 2021 and started winning early, the mares visiting him at Overbury Stud suddenly increased in number and he has 98 yearlings registered this year. In 2020, Ardad's fee had remained at his opening mark of £6,500 (it dropped to £4,000 in 2021 and is now £12,500) and, like Mehmas, they sold for an average price which was more than 11 times his fee. He too has been joined in the stallion ranks by one of his sons, the treble Group 1 winner Perfect Power (Ire). 

Ardad still looks good value at his adjusted fee, and the same can be said for Havana Grey (GB), who was also standing at £6,500 in 2020 but has risen to £18,500 on the back his first-season sires' championship laurels. The winners came thick and fast for the Whitsbury Manor Stud resident last year and it will be intriguing to see how they fare as three-year-olds. He trained on himself, from starting his campaign as an April juvenile and running eight times each at two and three before landing his Group 1 on Irish Champions Weekend in his second season. With a whopping 81 of last year's yearlings making on average nine times the fee for which they were conceived and showing average profit of £31,871, it was clearly a good move to be in the Havana Grey camp in his second year at stud.

As we can see, and for obvious reasons, not many of the stallions near the top of this table are still covering at fees within this tier, and that is the case for Kodi Bear (Ire), whose lowest fee of €6,000 came in 2019 and 2020 and is now €15,000, while Cotai Glory (GB), who brought more first-season sire glory to Tally-Ho Stud the year after Mehmas, is now €12,500, having previously been €5,000. The Platinum Queen (Ire) was the star for the latter last year and she subsequently fetched 1.2 million gns when sold to Katsumi Yoshida. That obviously doesn't figure in Cotai Glory's yearlings figures which were good nonetheless, at an average nine times his fee and average profit of £17,478 for 47 yearlings sold. That figure was just slightly below Rathbarry Stud's Kodi Bear, whose average profit was £18,247 for 32 sold.

Two sons of Invincible Spirit, Invincible Army (Ire) and Inns Of Court (Ire) have potentially exciting seasons ahead of them with their first runners. The vibes appeared to be very positive about Yeomanstown Stud's Invincible Army, who was dropped from a starting fee of €10,000 to €7,500, where he remains. Given that these yearlings were conceived off that higher opening mark, his average profit of £14,896 is decent from 72 yearlings sold and he is at a level which makes him very attractive if his first crop of runners deliver in the way which appears to be anticipated. 

Similar comments apply to Tally-Ho's Inns Of Court, who had a massive group of yearlings at the sales last year with 122 sold for average profit of £3,052. His fee has been kept at a lower level, dropping from an initial €7,500 to €5,000.

With these two stallions, as with Highclere Stud's Land Force (Ire), who also has his first runners this year, there is of course the chance for things to go very much in the breeeders' favour if they make a promising start and sustain it through to when their later crops are being offered at the sales. The risk involved is often reflected in dips in fees in the third and fourth seasons, though in Land Force's case he started an acceptable level of £6,500 for one year and had been £5,000 since then. Again, there were some favourable comments from yearling buyers, to the extent that 75 of his first-crop yearlings sold for an average price of £32,779, or five times his fee, at average profit of £6,279.

We'll see what the coming months bring for these young stallions as the eagerly anticipated early juvenile races get underway. One whose early results were encouraging on the track last year was Tasleet (GB), one of two sons of Showcasing (GB) to be standing at Shadwell's Nunnery Stud. Considering the increasing focus on success at Royal Ascot, a first-crop G2 Coventry S. winner is just what the doctor ordered for any budding sire, and that is exactly what Tasleet had in Bradsell (GB), one of 16 winners for the sire last season. The Archie Watson-trained colt went amiss when contesting the G1 Keeenland Phoenix S. but is reported to be on the comeback trail. Bradsell clearly has plenty of talent, so let's hope he is able to show that again this year.

Tasleet started out at £6,000 and has returned to that fee after two years at £5,000, but he remains competitively priced to give breeders a return on their investment. His average profit last year was £6,304 for 23 yearlings sold. 

Cheveley Park Stud's Twilight Son (GB) is another who has remained at an accessible price for breeders. He's still at his 2020 fee of £7,000, and his yearlings from that crop made on average five times that fee, with an average profit of £8,942. Both his sire and grandsire, Kyllachy (GB) and Pivotal (GB), were hugely dependable and successful members of the Cheveley Park Stud roster and there is no reason that this dual Group 1-winning sprinter can't develop into a similarly reliable sire capable of getting some fast and commercial offspring if granted enough support. 

VALUE PODIUM

Gold: Tasleet

It is an important year for him but his support is growing and he has been kept at an affordable level to give both him and those who use him a chance.

Silver: Cotai Glory 

Yes, his fee has now crept up into the next bracket but not by much and his star package The Platinum Queen was no fluke. There is some depth to his stakes horses from just two crops to race so far, and he can continue the solid work of his sire Exceed And Excel (Aus) as a dependable source of good sprinters. 

Bronze: Ardad 

He too is now in a higher fee bracket, but his fee remains sensible. This year's crop of juveniles is small, but he covered bigger and better books in the last two years, making it a reasonable proposition to use him now in anticipation of plenty more to come from his offspring on the track.

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Pair Of Shares And A Breeding Right Added To The Arqana Online Sale

Two more stallion shares and a breeding right have been added to the Arqana Online January Sale on Jan. 31.

A 1/48th share in Grade 1-winning jumper Nirvana Du Berlais (Fr) (Martaline {GB}) (lot 10) has been added to the catalogue. The share gives the right to two coverings a year in 2023 and 2024, followed by one covering a year beginning in 2025. Standing at Haras de la Hetraie for €6,500 this season, his first foals are juveniles.

There is also a breeding right available in crack miler Ribchester (Ire) (lot 11). He is the sire of 12 stakes winners including Group 1-placed Flaming Rib (Ire). He is priced at €7,500 this year and the breeding right gives the buyer the right to one covering a year.

Rounding out the new additions is a half-share (1/100th) in G1 Prix de l'Abbaye hero Wooded (Ire) (lot 12). The son of Wootton Bassett (GB) has his first yearlings in 2023, and commands €12,000 at Haras de Bouquetot. The half-share grants the buyer the right of one covering a year, plus a bonus covering which may be used in 2023 or 2024.

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‘The First Thing We Do Every Year Is Make Sure We Don’t Go Out Of Business’

Widely considered as one of the shrewdest trainers in Britain, Stuart Williams discusses the major issues facing middle-to-lower-tier operators as well as his concerns for the wider industry as a whole in this week's Starfield Stud-sponsored Q&A.

 

Brian Sheerin: The first thing that pops up when you log on to your website is a quote from Timeform, which describes you as, 'A conjurer of a trainer. One who can transform an apparently moderate animal into a frequent winner.' Another compliment that could be paid to you is that few trainers would contemplate trying to improve one that you trained.

Stuart Williams: To be honest, there are not many who have done better when they have left. There are plenty who have won races but they don't usually improve so it's something I'm proud of. We try to get the best out of every horse we have.

 

BS: What is the secret to rejuvenating and doing so well with the already-tried horses who make up the lion's share of your stable?

SW: We try to train each horse individually. It's easier to do that when you have a smaller yard like ours which is never home to more than 50 horses at any given time. It's easier for us to train them individually and we try to work out what suits each horse individually and make it work best in our routine. It's one of those things where I have gone down this route because I had to in order to survive. We started training with one horse. We've never had a big influx of yearlings so we've been forced to stock our stable with the older horses and the used horses at the sales. We've tried to do the best we can with each horse. It's all about trying to work out what makes each horse tick and trying to make them as happy as possible. If you can get them fit and healthy, they will produce it on the racetrack.

 

BS: So was it a case of needs must or was it a conscious decision to try and target the middle-tier horses at the sales in the hope of improving them?

SW: A bit of both, really. It has changed a lot in that the foreign market has become so strong and now the used horses are very hard to buy at the sales. In reality, 80% of the horses-in-training are rated below 80, so that's the standard of the breed and it has been that way for about 40 years. If we are looking at 80% of the horse population being rated less than 80 and everyone, including myself, wanting to operate in the top 20%, that's hard to do when you can only afford to buy a few yearlings every year. You are not going to beat the odds very often and get many of those yearlings rated above 80 if you are only buying a handful of them. If you want to be able to run at the big meetings and to compete for decent prize-money, you can go to the horses-in-training sales. Ten years ago, we could go and buy a 4-year-old and upwards rated 80 for 20 or 30 grand. If we could just improve it a little bit, we had a horse rated 90 who had a chance of winning a decent pot on a Saturday afternoon.

 

BS: What impact has the strength of the sales had on your business? It's obviously been a good avenue to trade horses for some people but the flip side of that is recruiting fresh talent has become arduous.

SW: The market has changed. We have a different funding system in Britain where they are basically relying on eight or more runners in all of these races and it's turning into quite a big problem because the fixture list has grown exponentially since the introduction of these all-weather tracks, and the horses who filled that programme are now being sold. It is not just the top horses, either, as it is the second- and even third-tier horses who are being sold abroad. If you looked at the horses-in-training sales from last year, you'd be amazed by how many horses were sold to continue their careers abroad.

 

BS: What is life at the coalface as a trainer in Britain like right now?

SW: To be honest, I think it's very difficult. It has never been a lucrative business, apart from if you are operating at the very top, and it's the same for the jockeys. The top 15 to 20 jockeys are making a good living whereas the rest of them are just about breaking even. It's the same for the trainers. It amazes me how many trainers manage to survive. It's a great lifestyle but it's very hard work and you put everything into it. I love it and I don't know how to do anything else. But it's becoming even more difficult to survive now than it was 15 or 20 years ago.

 

BS: In the face of that, I see you said you are expanding and are looking for more staff on Twitter.

SW: Everyone is short of staff. Any yard in Newmarket, there's a vacancy. John Gosden, Godolphin, everyone. We've changed our working practices to try and improve the work-life balance. None of my staff do a complete full week any week. We try to balance that against the fact that we need to look after these horses 24/7.

 

BS: Is that your biggest headache as a trainer, the recruiting and retaining of staff?

SW: Staff is a huge problem for everyone. I've been in Newmarket for a long time. When they had the stable lads strike, the wages doubled overnight, which resulted in a huge influx of Irish people coming over to work in England. Very few Irish people work in England now. There's more money, less racing and less hours by working in Ireland. The jockeys come over, and Ross Coakley and Oisin Orr are a good example of very good jockeys who haven't quite made it at the top tier of Irish racing doing very well over here, but very few staff come to work in England. In the 1980s, we'd a huge influx of females getting into the sport and, while they still come, it's not in the same numbers. In 2004 we'd a huge influx of Asian workers but now they can't come anymore. We have an indigenous population who are encouraged to stay on at school until at least 19 or 20 years of age and not many have ever ridden ponies as kids. Most of them are too big to ride Flat horses as well. There's a perfect storm developing where there aren't the people there to do the job.

 

BS: Obviously there's going to be turnover in the training ranks, as there is with any profession, but I know you were sad to see Chris Wall call time on his career.

SW: We're going down the route of the super trainer where everyone wants to have their horse with William Haggas, John Gosden, Roger Varian or the new kid on the block. Really good trainers like Chris, who is a smashing fella, saw his numbers dwindle down through the years. It's hard to see the logic behind any owner, who may have two or three horses, sending them to a big stable. You are going to be such a small fish in a big pond. When my owners want to ring up and find out about one of their horses, they ring me, they don't ring one of the assistants, the head lad or an agent. I think that should count for something. You have people like Rae Guest, George Margarson, Chris Wall, who wouldn't have had big strings, but proved that they are perfectly capable of training group horses once they have the right ammunition.

 

BS: How do you go about leveling the playing field?

SW: They brought in the one meeting a day rule for jockeys. Some of them like it and others don't but, for safety reasons, I think that was a good idea. A lot of the time, we have Lingfield on a Friday afternoon and Wolverhampton later that evening. It was a mad rush to get up the M6 on a Friday afternoon but everyone was doing it. If you could bring in something to help trainers in a similar way, I don't think that would be a bad thing. I'm not sure how feasible this would be but perhaps limiting trainers to a certain number would be a start. Two years ago, for example, the Gosdens had 253 horses in the horses-in-training book and that excluded 2-year-olds. They've 191 boxes at Clarehavan so you know that all of those horses are not stabled there. A lot of the horses are based at pre-training facilities and come in when they are ready. If you were the BHA, you could possibly say that, 'we are licensing you to train from this many boxes,' plus a few in and out of training. If you wanted to train 500 horses, which some do, you'd need close to 500 boxes. That would make it slightly more difficult.

 

BS: The role of the satellite trainer has never been as important to the super powers.

SW: And they require staff as well. The pre-training yards have got the staff and they don't have the overheads or the restrictions or the BHA inspecting their yards. It's a lot cheaper for them to run their business. I was talking to Malcolm Bastard about this recently, as one of my owners has a couple of horses down there with him, and he would make far more in a year pre-training than I would make as a trainer.

 

BS: A lot of guys' backs are against the wall and would say that, outside the top bracket, it's impossible to make a living as a trainer if you are not a trader. So what is it that entices so many people to soldier on?

SW: Listen, I enjoy it. I enjoy being with the horses and talking with the owner and going racing. I left school when I was 14 and have never known anything else. I've always wanted to be in racing and, I've been doing it so long, I probably wouldn't be able to do anything else! It's difficult and the first thing we do every year is try and make sure we don't go out of business.

 

BS: What measures do you take to ensure that doesn't happen?

SW: We don't go on fantastically-expensive holidays and we don't have a lavish lifestyle. We make sure we break even on the training fees and try to vet all of the owners who come to us in order to make sure we are not left with any bad debts. We've been very lucky in that regard and most of the people pay on time. We put a lot of work into that on a daily basis and the last thing you want is someone not paying at the end of the month. We also try to be as cute as we can with the placement of horses in order to win as much prize-money as we can for the owners and ourselves.

 

BS: We could be here all night talking about prize-money. It's obviously quite bad in Britain, as it is in Ireland, compared to all of the other major racing jurisdictions. You associate your stable as being well able to land a gamble. Has that propped up the business in light of the terrible prize-money?

SW: When we first started training, it did. It's not part of the business anymore because it's almost impossible to get any kind of money on these days. When I first started training, we built landing touches on horses into the business plan if we could hopefully identify a few horses who we felt could win and then we'd back them accordingly on the right days. But now we just try and place the horses where they have their best possible chance to win. It annoys me a little bit that people brand me as a gambling trainer. If you land a gamble, you get praised on one side for knowing the time of day but it's a black mark on the other side because some owners won't want to go to you because they'll think all you want to do is try and land gambles all of the time. That's not the case at all. We do the best we can with each individual horse.

 

BS: As you said in the Racing Post the other day, it has become a lot harder to get big money on. You also spoke about the impact the affordability checks are having on the industry.

SW: I think we need a radical change. Our two main income streams are from the owners and the punters. At the moment in Britain, our owners are recovering between six and eight pence in the pound on average. The money spent by punters comes back through the levy and the media rights and comes back into racing through different avenues. In the gross profits era that we're in at the moment, we need punters to lose. So, your owners are losing 92 to 94 pence in the pound and your second biggest customer is the punter and you want him to lose as well. That's a crazy way to run a business. It's just bonkers.

We need to somehow get nearer to the Australian model. It's more accessible now than it's ever been because the big bookmakers are mostly owned by American companies that are casino-based. They are the same people who own the big bookmakers in Australia. If we could convince the government that we are fighting this overseas drain with both hands tied behind our back right now, because of the funding system, we could hopefully get them to legislate in favour of an Australian-based system. I think it would be hugely beneficial to us and might also bring the on-course market back to life because there'd be bigger bets struck on the track.

That's one thing that is unique about British and Irish racing, is the bookmakers on the racecourse shouting the odds. It's part of the experience and is an exciting place to be. You go racing in France, the prize-money is better but there's four men and a dog sitting there watching the smaller meetings with no atmosphere at all. If we get the product, the prize-money and the competition right, then get people betting on it, then it all snowballs into a higher level altogether.

 

BS: You've spent time all over the world. Did you ever flirt with the idea of basing yourself somewhere other than Britain?

SW: I always think to myself that I should have stayed in Australia! I might retire out there one day. I was with Bart Cummings out there and I can remember going to Brisbane for the Carnival and basing one of our horses there with a small trainer who had a row of eight boxes behind his house in a suburb of Brisbane about a mile from the track. We used to walk the horses to the track every day and just work them like that. Well, that wouldn't be a bad retirement, having three or four horses in the back garden. He used to take them to the track and pay a work rider to ride them for him. That would appeal to me when I get too old to do it here! One day.

 

BS: Hopefully that won't come anytime soon as you've proved yourself to be one of the shrewdest operators in Britain down through the years. But if I was to ask you what provided you with your biggest kick in the game, what would you say?

SW: We had a horse when we first started training, Concer Un (GB) (Lord Bud {GB}), who was owned by a farmer who couldn't get 500 pounds for him at the sales. He was out of a mare who won once from as many starts, in a bumper, and William Haggas had trained it. Concer Un won a hatful of races for us, including a big handicap at the Ebor meeting at York, where he broke the track record and beat a horse who went on to finish second at the Breeders' Cup. To do that with a horse who couldn't get sold in the ring for 500 pounds provided us with a great buzz. We won 10 handicaps in the same season with Sendintank (GB) (Halling) and he won four handicaps in the same week in two separate weeks. That was pretty good as well.

 

BS: Finally, what does 2023 look like for you?

SW: We've got some nice horses and have picked up some new owners. George Gil is one of them, and he runs Opulence Thoroughbreds. He asked if I'd buy him some yearlings a couple of years ago and some of those look quite promising. We bought 14 in total in 2021. I trained seven of those and Roger Varian trained the rest. They didn't buy as many last year and they went to a few different trainers but the syndicate is growing and is modeled on Middleham Park. They've been fairly successful and, luckily, a few of the horses look quite promising so it's all quite positive.

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HKJC Enjoys Biggest Result In 25 Years

The Year of the Rabbit got off to a racing start for the Hong Kong Jockey Club as its Lunar New Year meeting pulled in HK$2.06 billion (US$255 million) in bets–the biggest daily take since the city's return to Chinese rule in 1997, the South China Morning Post reported.

Punters wagered across the 11 races at Sha Tin on Tuesday and, although the take was beaten by a distance by the record HK$2.54 billion gambled in June 1997, it was a healthy 10.1% increase on last year's event.

“We are absolutely delighted with today's race meeting. The atmosphere was really fantastic and it brought back what we always felt–that Lunar New Year is a very special race meeting,” Jockey Club chief executive Winfried Engelbrecht-Bresges said.

Almost 80,000 people clicked through the Sha Tin turnstiles and the official crowd stood at 84,394–79,354 at Sha Tin and 5,040 watching from Happy Valley–the biggest turnout since the 2019 Lunar New Year races.

The Lunar New Year card drew a bigger crowd than the prestigious Longines Hong Kong International Races last month, with fans shoulder to shoulder in front of a packed grandstand after they flocked to see a pre-races performance by Cantopop star Joey Yung Cho-yee.

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