Tag: secret oath

TDN Kentucky Oaks Top 10 for Apr. 7

The GI Longines Kentucky Oaks will be overshadowed by the GI Kentucky Derby, but maybe that shouldn't be the case. The Oaks is absolutely loaded, perhaps the deepest in many years. In any other year, Secret Oath (Arrogate), Echo Zulu (Gun Runner), Kathleen O. (Upstart) or Adare Manor (Uncle Mo) would be an obvious heavy favorite. This year, a horse like the undefeated Kathleen O. might be third choice in the wagering at, say, 7-2 or 4-1. After a busy Saturday last week, which included Secret Oath's third-place finish against the boys in the GI Arkansas Derby, it will be another busy week for fillies eyeing the Oaks, kicking off with Friday's GI Central Bank Ashland S. at Keeneland. Saturday's action will include the GIII Gazelle S. at Aqueduct and the GII Santa Anita Oaks.

1) SECRET OATH (Arrogate–Absinthe Minded, by Quiet American) O-Briland Farm; B-Briland Farm, Robert & Stacy Mitchell (KY); T-D. Wayne Lukas. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-4-0-2, $590,167. Last Start: 3rd GI Arkansas Derby. Next Start: GI Longines Kentucky Oaks, May 6, Churchill Downs. KY Oaks Points: 60.

After his filly failed to win the Arkansas Derby, trainer Wayne Lukas confirmed that Secret Oath will go next in the Kentucky Oaks. That's the right call. She needed to win the Arkansas Derby to warrant a start against males on the first Saturday in May. Though she didn't win, she turned in a terrific performance when facing the boys. Once she wound up last and wide down the backside, she was in trouble. An eye-catching middle move took her all the way to second position in the stretch, but she couldn't sustain her bid. Afterward, Lukas said that jockey Luis Contreras will keep the mount for the Oaks. Based on her solid performance in the Arkansas Derby and all the hype she garnered for her three dominant efforts before that–most of it justified–she'll probably be the favorite in the Oaks. It's been 32 years since Lukas has won this race. It would have been a better story had she gone in the Derby, but it will be hard not to root for the Coach to pull this one off.

2) KATHLEEN O. (Upstart–Quaver, by Blame) O-Winngate Stables, LLC; B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. & Bridlewood Farm (KY); T-Shug McGaughey. Sales History: $8,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $50,000 ylg '20 OBSOCT; $275,000 2yo '21 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-4-0-0, $379,730. Last Start: 1st GII Gulfstream Park Oaks. Next Start: GII Gulfstream Park Oaks, GP, Apr. 2. KY Oaks Points: 150.

What a nice filly. She's 4-for-4 and has been visually impressive in each of her starts, the most recent being the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks. It wasn't a tough race and the only horse in there that possibly could have beaten her was Goddess of Fire (Mineshaft), who finished second. But she did everything right…again. She sat back early, started rolling approaching the far turn and then ran away from the competition in the stretch to win under a mild drive.

“She has strong power at the finish,” winning rider Javier Castellano said. “I like the way she did it today, nice and easy with a strong finish. She has a lot of potential. I think she's going to be fun in the future.”

Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey has done a masterful job bringing her along. Her first three Beyer numbers were, in order, a 67, a 78 and then an 85. That raised the question as to whether or not she was fast enough, but that was put to rest when she improved again and ran a 98 Beyer in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. Going into this weekend, that's the fastest number among all the fillies eyeing the Oaks. Can she improve some more? Yes. Does she have to improve to win the Kentucky Oaks? Maybe not.

3) ECHO ZULU (Gun Runner–Letgomyecho, by Menifee) 'TDN Rising Star' O-L and N Racing LLC & Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Betz/J. Betz/Burns/CHNNHK/Magers/CoCo Equine/ Ramsby (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $300,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Filly, MGISW, 5-5-0-0, $1,720,000. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks. Next Start: GI Longines Kentucky Oaks, May 6, Churchill Downs. KY Oaks Points: 130.

An undefeated champion and she may not be the favorite in the Kentucky Oaks, which tells you what an incredibly strong group this is. There is so much to like. She was brilliant last year and is in the hands of Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen. She has never lost. But…How good was her comeback race? That is the question. For the first time in her career, she had to work for the win, beating Hidden Connection (Connect) by just a nose as the 1-10 favorite. The Beyer number was not great–the 88 was the slowest of her career. So, there are two schools of thought: 1) She has not improved from last year and it will catch up to her in the Oaks; 2) Asmussen didn't have her at all cranked up for her 3-year-old debut, she learned how to fight in the Fair Grounds race, and will run much better in the Kentucky Oaks. Which will it be?

4) ADARE MANOR (Uncle Mo–Brooklynsway, by Giant's Causeway) O-Michael Lund Petersen; B-Town & Country Horse Farms, LLC & Gary Broad (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $180,000 ylg '20 FTKFEB; $190,000 RNA ylg '20 FTKSEL; $375,000 2yo '21 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-1-0, $56,600. Last Start: 1st GIII Las Virgenes S. Next Start: GII Santa Anita Oaks, SA, Apr. 9. KY Oaks Points: 0.

She's been out of sight and out of mind since winning the GIII Las Virgenes by 13 lengths all the way back on Feb. 6 for then trainer Bob Baffert. But, let's not forget, that was a huge performance and it earned her a 94 Beyer. Baffert elected to give her some time off afterward and gear up for this Saturday's GII Santa Anita Oaks. With Baffert's suspension pending, she's been in the barn of new trainer Tim Yakteen for about two weeks. Last Saturday, Yakteen sent her out for a five-furlong work in 1:00.20. The trainer change shouldn't be a concern. Baffert did most of the heavy lifting to get her to this point and Yakteen is perfectly capable. She could easily win the Santa Anita race in a blowout fashion, which would mean she'd come to Churchill Downs as hot as any horse on this list. She has no points because Baffert trainees weren't eligible to earn points in any of the preps. She'll likely need to run first or second Saturday to make it in, but that shouldn't be a problem.

5) NEST (Curlin–Marion Ravenwood, by A.P. Indy) O-Repole Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners & Michael House; B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-1, $265,000. Last Start: 1st Suncoast S. Next Start: GI Central Bank Ashland S., KEE, Apr. 8. KY Oaks Points: 20.

Another horse we haven't heard from in a while, Nest is the 2-1 morning line favorite for Friday's Ashland at Keeneland. She is the deserving favorite, but it's not an easy spot as the competition includes the very fast Happy Soul (Runhappy) and the Brad Cox-trained Interstatedaydream (Classic Empire), an 8 1/4-length allowance winner on Mar. 13 at Oaklawn. Trainer Todd Pletcher has really taken his time with this filly. After she beat a very good field in the GII Demoiselle on Dec. 4, she didn't show up again until besting some tomato cans in the Feb. 12 Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs. That race proved little. For her, the Ashland is the real test, and should she win it, she'll be yet another horse who might have been favored in any other year only to go off at 5-1 or 6-1 in this year's Oaks.

6) HAPPY SOUL (Runhappy–Cowgirl Lucky, by Stephen Got Even) O-Gayla Rankin; B-Harris Training Center, LLC (KY); T-Wesley Ward. Sales History: $50,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MSW, 4-3-1-0, $238,500. Last Start: 1st Dixie Belle S. Next Start: Next Start: GI Central Bank Ashland S., KEE, Apr. 8. KY Oaks Points: 0.

Finally, her big test. Happy Soul drew post six for the Ashland, a race that will go a long way toward deciding her future. We know she can run. She won her last three starts by a combined 26 1/4 lengths. But those were all held at a six furlongs or shorter and her sire was an Eclipse Award-winning sprinter. Having to stretch out to 8 1/2 furlongs for the Ashland will pose a huge test. Is she a Kentucky Oaks horse or a horse who belongs in sprint races? Coming off a win in the Dixie Belle S., where she completed the first quarter in :21 1/5, she should go right to the lead in the Ashland and play a game of catch-me-if-you-can. We know Jim McIngvale will be rooting for her.

7) HIDDEN CONNECTION (Connect–C J's Gal, by Awesome Again) O-Hidden Brook Farm & Black Type Thoroughbreds; B-St. Simon Place (KY); T-W. Bret Calhoun. Sales History: $49,000 RNA wlg '19 KEENOV; $40,000 ylg '20 KEESEP; $55,000 RNA 2yo '21 OBSAPR; $85,000 2yo '21 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $399,525. Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks. Next Start: GI Longines Kentucky Oaks, May 6, Churchill Downs. KY Oaks Points: 57.

If someone other than the big three or four is going to win the Oaks, it may just be this filly. She's been a little up and down in her career. She looked like a star in the making when winning the GII Pocahontas S. by 9 1/4 lengths last September, but then was outrun in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. She followed that with a fourth-place finish as the 2-1 favorite in the GII Rachel Alexandra S. That made it look like she wasn't quite good enough to compete against the very best, but then she rebounded with a big effort in the Fair Grounds Oaks to almost pull off the upset against Echo Zulu. The good Hidden Connection will have to show up for her to have any chance in the Kentucky Oaks, but there's every chance that can happen.

8) VENTI VALENTINE (Firing Line–Glory Gold, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-NY Final Furlong Racing Stable & Parkland Thoroughbreds; B-Final Furlong Racing Stable & Maspeth Stable (NY); T-Jorge Abreu. Lifetime Record: MSW & GSP, 4-3-1-0, $366,250. Last Start: 1st Busher Invitational S. Next Start: GIII Gazelle S., AQU, Apr. 9. KY Oaks Points: 54.

No matter how she fares this weekend, she figures to be double-digit odds in the Kentucky Oaks. Again, that tells you just how strong this field looks to be. A New York-bred who kicked off her career with back-to-back wins against state breds, including one in the Maid of the Mist S., the best race of her life was the only one she lost. She gave Nest the fight of her life when finishing second, beaten only a neck, in the GII Demoiselle. She followed that with a seven-length romp in the Busher Invitational. The New York route to the Kentucky Oaks is not always the strongest, but this one should emerge as the biggest threat among that contingent.

9) YUUGIRI (Shackleford–Yuzuru, by Medaglia d'Oro) O/B-Sekie Yoshihara & Tsunebumi Yoshihara (KY); T-Rodolphe Brisset. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-2-1, $543,610. Last Start: 1st GIII Fantasy S. Next Start: GI Longines Kentucky Oaks, May 6, Churchill Downs. KY Oaks Points: 114.

This daughter of Shackleford makes the list after winning the GIII Fantasy S. at Oaklawn. Would she have won if Secret Oath were in there? Probably not. She finished third behind Secret Oath, beaten 9 1/4 lengths, in the GIII Honeybee S. in her prior start. Most likely, she benefitted from the Fantasy being an easy spot. She did show a lot of talent when breaking her maiden, winning by 7 1/4 lengths back in September at Churchill. But she failed to back that up when a distant second, beaten 10 3/4 lengths, in the Rags to Riches S. Has earned her way into the Kentucky Oaks, but hard to see her being a major factor in that race.

10) SHAHAMA (Munnings–Private Feeling, by Belong to Me) 'TDN Rising Star' O-KHK Racing; B-SF Bloodstock LLC (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $425,000 2yo '21 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW-UAE, $223,670. Last Start: 1st G3 UAE Oaks. Next Start: GI Longines Kentucky Oaks, May 6, Churchill Downs. KY Oaks Points: 50.

Not sure what to make of this filly, who is unbeaten in four starts, but has never raced outside of Dubai. Also notable that since her last start, in the Feb. 18 GIII UAE Oaks, she has had only one listed workout. That was a four-furlong breeze in :49.10 on Apr. 1 at Palm Beach Downs for trainer Todd Pletcher. You can't blame her connections for giving the Kentucky Oaks a try, but this is not the sort of year where a mystery horse out of Dubai can win it. Would have to be something super special to pull this off.

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The Week in Review: Charge It Looks Like a Future Star

No matter how talented a horse might be, going from a maiden win into a race like the GI Curlin Florida Derby is supposed to be too much to ask. You're not seasoned, experienced or battle tested, and those things matter. That's why I thought 3-1 was a ridiculous price on Charge It (Tapit) in Saturday's Florida Derby. Was I ever wrong.

After finishing second in his debut in January, the Todd Pletcher-trained colt returned Feb. 12 to win a Gulfstream maiden by 8 1/2 lengths. It was a big effort and it earned him a 93 Beyer and the 'TDN Rising Star' designation, which put him in the same ballpark as many of the top 3-year-old colts out there. But he hadn't beaten anything of note and, in the Florida Derby, would be going up against some of the stars of the 3-year-old division. Simplification (Not This Time) was coming off a win in the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., White Abarrio (Race Day) had won the GIII Holy Bull S. and Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway) was coming off back-to-back wins in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. and the GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby. All three looked like legitimate candidates for the GI Kentucky Derby.

Charge It didn't win. He finished second behind White Abarrio, losing by 1 1/4 lengths. He finished a length in front of third-place finisher Simplification.

But his race was better than it looks. He ran like a horse who doesn't have the game figured out yet. White Abarrio got the jump on him on the far turn and assumed command after getting past Simplification and Pappacap (Gun Runner), but Charge It was far from done. By the sixteenth-pole, Charge It had moved into second and had about two lengths to make up. From there to the wire, he ran like a big goofball.

Here's the footnote from the race: “…(Charge It) angled four wide near the quarter pole, lugged in under right-handed urging in upper stretch then again near the sixteenth pole, angled back outside of the winner leaving the sixteenth marker, switched back to the left lead and inched closer while still appearing to try to lug in under hand urging.”

“Super pleased with the effort,” Pletcher said. “To get a real education in a race like that was very encouraging. He got a little green down the lane. He kind of drifted in behind [White Abarrio] and felt like if he could have just run straight that last 100 yards, he was going to be right there. But I thought it was a huge effort, considering everything. Overcame some adversity, took some dirt, and did a lot of things right. Just didn't quite polish it off.”

Said jockey Luis Saez, “He was a little bit everywhere at the top of the stretch, but, man, he has so much talent. I think he got a good education from this race. He's going to be a nice horse.”

Charge It figures to benefit immensely from the experience and run even better in the Derby. That doesn't mean he will win the Derby, where he will face a field even tougher than the one he squared off against Saturday at Gulfstream, and his inexperience remains a factor. But by year's end, after races like the GI Runhappy Travers S. and the GI Breeders' Cup Classic, who will be regarded as the top member of this division? Charge It will absolutely be part of the conversation.

That would be good news for owner Mandy Pope, who has spent millions at the sales, primarily on broodmares, but has yet to come up with her first star. She bought Charge It's dam, I'll Take Charge (Indian Charlie), for $2.2 million at the 2013 Keeneland September sale. I'll Take Charge is a half-sister to Grade I stakes winner Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy) and Grade I winner and Eclipse Award champion Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song). I'll Take Charge won only one of five career starts, earning just $82,400, but seems ready to pay her owner back with what could be a stellar career as a broodmare.

Classic Causeway's Race is a Mystery

Sent off at 7-2 in the Florida Derby, Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway) had been among the more consistent members of the 3-year-old colt division, which makes his clunker in Saturday's race all the more perplexing. The winner of the GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby led early on but was all done on the far turn. He finished 11thh and last, beaten 21 1/4 lengths.

The race left his trainer, Brian Lynch, to guess what happened.

“Everything seems good. He scoped good and came back good this morning,” Lynch said. “It's a bit of a head-scratcher. We'll digest it and go on from there. Everything is up in the air now. We'll let the dust settle and we'll make a decision in a few days.”

Secret Oath to the Kentucky Oaks

Trainer Wayne Lukas confirmed Sunday that Secret Oath (Arrogate) will go next in the GI Kentucky Oaks after finishing a game third against the boys Saturday in the GI Arkansas Derby.

“I don't want to run her in a 20-horse field and at an extra eighth of a mile,” Lukas said. “That would be asking a lot of her. We'll look at the Oaks and see what we can do after that. I'm not saying we won't step outside the box again at some time. But at this point the Oaks is the logical place to go.”

Lukas has nothing to apologize for. The 7-5 favorite in a $1.25-million race with Kentucky Derby points up for grabs, Secret Oath was last down the backstretch before launching an eye-catching six-wide move on the far turn. She swept past horses, but simply couldn't keep it up. Nonetheless, it was a big effort.

“For her, the race didn't come together smoothly like we would have liked it,” Lukas said. “She got shuffled back at the start and down the backside that horse [Ben Diesel] was laying on us a little bit and we couldn't get away from him. That monster move that she made on the far turn, you had to expect her to flatten out in the last sixteenth. If she could have made that move all the way to the wire we would be open to the world. She made a beautiful move for roughly three-eighths. It was a monster move.”

In the Oaks, Secret Oath will vie for favoritism with Echo Zulu (Gun Runner), last year's 2-year-old filly champion and the recent winner of the GII Fair Grounds Oaks.

Uriah St. Lewis Does It Again

Parx-based trainer Uriah St. Lewis came into Saturday's card at Aqueduct with a record of 0-for-30 on the year, not really a surprise since he is a low-percentage trainer. He may not win a lot, but he somehow finds a way to get the most out of horses who aren't that talented.

For the St. Lewis-trained Forewarned (Flat Out), the bottom line is that the Ohio-bred 7-year-old has now earned $870,883 in his career. That's his total after he won Saturday's $150,000 GIII Excelsior S. Saturday at Aqueduct. This is what St. Louis does. He runs his horses, by modern day standards, often and isn't afraid to throw them into races where they appear to be in over their heads. Last year, Forewarned won the Queens County S. at Aqueduct at odds of 42-1.

Then there's Discreet Lover (Repent). St. Lewis ran him in the 2018 GI Jockey Club Gold Cup when it looked like he didn't have a prayer. All he did was win at odds of 45-1 to earn $433,125. He retired in 2020 with $1,452,735 in career earnings.

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Cyberknife Fine after Arkansas Derby Win

Gold Square LLC's Cyberknife (Gun Runner) exited his win in Saturday's GI Arkansas Derby in fine shape and is expected to ship to Louisville Tuesday to continue preparations for the May 7 GI Kentucky Derby. The colt, who was making his second stakes appearance after a sixth-place effort in the Jan. 22 GIII Lecomte S., continued a trend of frisky behavior Saturday at Oaklawn when dumping jockey Florent Geroux in the post parade.

“I was too far away to do anything about it, but Florent was able to jump up on him by himself,” Cox said. “He's feeling good [Sunday]. It's a nice, crisp morning and if you watched him walk around here, you definitely wouldn't think he ran a mile and an eighth yesterday. He's got a lot of energy.”

Cox also trains lightly raced Zozos (Munnings), who earned a spot in the Kentucky Derby with a runner-up effort in the Mar. 26 GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds.

Arkansas Derby runner-up Barber Road (Race Day) is on target to be the first Kentucky Derby starter for trainer John Ortiz, but the colt will remain at Oaklawn for the time being.

“Right now, we don't have any plans of moving him,” said Ortiz. “He sprung a shoe, so we're going to get that fixed first and address that. He got banged around there down the stretch, but he's just a tough little horse.”

Secret Oath (Arrogate), third while facing colts for the first time in the Arkansas Derby, will return to her own division for the May 6 GI Kentucky Oaks.

Secret Oath made a sweeping six-wide move on the second turn to reach contention before weakening late to finish three-quarters of a length behind Barber Road.

“She was tired,” trainer D. Wayne Lukas said Sunday. “That move she made was a terrific move for a filly at this stage of her career, to keep going. Watching it live, I thought she's probably going to hang a little bit here. She almost had to. It was a monster move. But when she came back, she was tired. The beautiful thing is we've got five weeks now. I said that before the race and now it gives us some direction. We're not thinking Derby. Now, we're focused on what we should be–the Oaks–and we've got five weeks to get back in form.”

Lukas said Secret Oath and stablemates Ethereal Road (Quality Road) and Ignitis (Nyquist) will ship Tuesday to Churchill Downs. Ignitis, third in the Smarty Jones S., is pointing for the Apr. 8 $400,000 Lafayette S. at Keeneland. Ethereal Road, the GII Rebel runner-up, is scheduled to make his next start in the Apr. 9 GI Toyota Blue Grass S. Ethereal Road has 20 points to rank 24th on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard.

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Filly Is No ‘Secret’ In Arkansas Derby

Having proven heads and shoulders above the local 3-year-old filly contingent, Briland Farm homebred Secret Oath (Arrogate) takes on the boys in Saturday's $1.25-million GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. The chestnut figures a warm favorite to become the first of her gender to win the race since her Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas saddled Althea (Alydar) to score by seven lengths in the 1984 renewal, with future GI Belmont S. runner-up Pine Circle (Cox's Ridge) and GI Preakness S. hero Gate Dancer (Sovereign Dancer) noses apart in second and third.

A maiden winner and fifth to GIII Fantasy S. hopeful Dream Lith (Medaglia d'Oro) in last year's GII Golden Rod S., Secret Oath has been nothing short of sensational in annexing three starts at this meet by a combined 23 lengths. A handy allowance winner on New Year's Eve, the chestnut pummeled her rivals by 7 1/4 lengths in the Jan. 29 Martha Washington S. and again in the GIII Honeybee S. Feb. 26, with eyecatching bursts on each occasion.

Her trainer, whose success with fillies like Althea, Derby winner Winning Colors and Serena's Song is well-documented–has been impressed with Secret Oath's development.

“She's got a running style and the efficiency of motion is good,” Lukas said. “She places herself in the race. I would say the thing that's probably the biggest concern would be a traffic problem. She's very rangy and tall. I don't know about starting and stopping. In the Honeybee, they shut her down, then just 'Boom!' She amazed me that when she dove into the rail [turning for home], she just [took off)].”

Now, to be fair to Althea, who has contributed mightily to the American Stud Book down the years, Secret Oath faces competition not nearly as deep as Althea did 38 years ago. The progressive We the People (Constitution) kicked clear to graduate by nearly six lengths on his one-mile debut Feb. 12 and doubled up with a five-length allowance tally Mar. 12, good for 'TDN Rising Star' honors. Those wishing to take a contrarian view will note that the bay colt tracked a very slow pace on the latter occasion and won off like a 2-5 chance should.

Doppelganger (Into Mischief) makes his first start for trainer Tim Yakteen Saturday and has form through Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah), to whom he was a disappointing fourth in the seven-furlong GII San Vicente S. Jan. 29 at Santa Anita before chasing home that rival to finish a distant second in the GII San Vicente S. Mar. 5. The blinkers come off this afternoon.

Un Ojo (Laoban) outran longshot odds to be second to the promising Early Voting (Gun Runner) in the Feb. 5 GIII Withers S. at Aqueduct and looked beaten in this track's GII Rebel S. before surging home on perhaps the best part of the strip to post a half-length success, with Barber Road (Race Day) third.

Cyberknife (Gun Runner) bounced back from a below-par sixth in the GIII Lecomte S. in January with a sound three-length allowance score at the Fair Grounds Feb. 19 and is bound to go off at a price shorter than his 8-1 morning line.

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