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The TDN Kentucky Oaks Rankings for Apr. 14

With the GI Ashland S., the GII Santa Anita Oaks and the GIII Gazelle S. topping last week's action, all the preps have been run and the field for the GI Kentucky Oaks is all but set. Who will be the favorite? Who is the filly to beat? In a year where the division is overrun with quality, those aren't easy questions to answer. It should be a heck of a race.

1) SECRET OATH (Arrogate–Absinthe Minded, by Quiet American) O-Briland Farm; B-Briland Farm, Robert & Stacy Mitchell (KY); T-D. Wayne Lukas. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-4-0-2, $590,167. Last Start: 3rd GI Arkansas Derby. Kentucky Oaks Points: 60. Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, CD, May 6.

The big news in the Secret Oath camp is that the connections have decided to replace jockey Luis Contreras with Luis Saez. Trainer Wayne Lukas had told the TDN that Contreras would keep the mount for the Oaks, so, apparently, someone had a change of mind. The move is hardly a surprise. Contreras, a regular at Woodbine, is a capable rider but he's not in the class of Saez, who is a rare talent. The guess is that Secret Oath will be the favorite. She's coming off a very good effort against males in the GI Arkansas Derby and, because of Lukas, the 86-year-old icon trying to win another Kentucky Oaks, she will dominate the storylines coming into the race. Her sire Arrogate passed away at age seven in 2020. Win or lose in the Oaks, she figures to go down as the best horse produced by her ill-fated sire.

2) KATHLEEN O. (Upstart–Quaver, by Blame) O-Winngate Stables, LLC; B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. & Bridlewood Farm (KY); T-Shug McGaughey. Sales History: $8,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $50,000 ylg '20 OBSOCT; $275,000 2yo '21 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-4-0-0, $379,730. Last Start: 1st GII Gulfstream Park Oaks. Kentucky Oaks Points: 150. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

Maybe she will be the favorite. Considering what she has accomplished, that wouldn't be a surprise. She's four-for-four in her career and gives every indication that she has yet to reach her peak. She represents a perfect example of why trainer Shug McGaughey is in the Hall of Fame. He's a master when it comes to developing horses and getting them to peak on the big day. Starting with her debut, a maiden win at Aqueduct Nov. 12, she has gotten better with every start. This year, she has reeled off three straight wins at Gulfstream, a surface that doesn't fit her come-from-behind style. It's been 29 years since McGaughey last won the Oaks, which he pulled off in 1993 with Dispute. It is his only win in the race.

3) NEST (Curlin–Marion Ravenwood, by A.P. Indy) O-Repole Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners & Michael House; B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $623,050. Last Start: 1st GI Central Bank Ashland S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 120. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

Todd Pletcher won the 2021 Kentucky Oaks with a daughter of Curlin, Malathaat. He will try to do so again with another daughter of Curlin in Nest. Nest could possibly be better than Eclipse Award winner Malathaat. That's how impressive she was when winning the Ashland. After winning the Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs in her 3-year-old debut, she faced much stiffer competition in the Ashland, but made it look easy. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr., she drew off in the stretch to win by 8 1/4 lengths. “She looked like a star yesterday,” Pletcher said the morning after the Ashland. “You never expect to win by 8 1/4 lengths, but we felt good about the way she was coming into the race.” Mike Repole is one of her owners. He has spent millions at the sales trying to find superstar colts, but doesn't normally go after many fillies. This one was bought at Keeneland September for $350,000, which looks like a bargain. In most any other year, she'd be the solid favorite in the Oaks. This year, she could be third or fourth choice.

4) ECHO ZULU (Gun Runner–Letgomyecho, by Menifee) 'TDN Rising Star' O-L and N Racing LLC & Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Betz/J. Betz/Burns/CHNNHK/Magers/CoCo Equine/ Ramsby (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $300,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Filly, MGISW, 5-5-0-0, $1,720,000. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks. KY Oaks Points: 130. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

Could Gun Runner, who got off to a sizzling start as a sire, win both the Oaks and the GI Kentucky Derby? With Echo Zulu and GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby winner Taiba (Gun Runner), it's entirely possible. She's undefeated and the reigning 2-year-old filly champion, so maybe she deserves to be ranked higher than fourth. But this corner was not enamored with her 3-year-old debut, a nose victory in the GII Fair Grounds Oaks in which she earned the slowest Beyer in her career. She's going to have to run better to win the Kentucky Oaks. Then again, maybe the cagey Steve Asmussen didn't have her at 100%, knowing that the Kentucky Oaks was the real goal? It's a tough call.

5) NOSTALGIC (Medaglia d'Oro–Been Here Before, by Tapit) O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Bill Mott. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-0, $235,400. Last Start: 1st GIII Gazelle S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 101. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

She's was on the list, off the list and now makes it into the Top 5 with her win Saturday at Aqueduct in the Gazelle. She's had an up-and-down career so far. After finishing fourth in last year's GII Demoiselle S., one of the biggest key races of 2021, she went to the grass, where she was ninth and last in the GIII Sweetest Chant S. at Gulfstream. Trainer Bill Mott sent her back to dirt and she bounced right back with a 6 3/4-length win in a Gulfstream allowance race. She earned her ticket to the Oaks with a 1 1/4-length win in the Gazelle over 11-10 favorite Venti Valentine (Firing Line). Owned by Godolphin, by Medaglia d'Oro out of the Been Here Before, she's certainly got the pedigree to be a star. Mott has never won the Kentucky Oaks.

6) ADARE MANOR (Uncle Mo–Brooklynsway, by Giant's Causeway) O-Michael Lund Petersen; B-Town & Country Horse Farms, LLC & Gary Broad (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $180,000 ylg '20 FTKFEB; $190,000 RNA ylg '20 FTKSEL; $375,000 2yo '21 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-2-0, $256,600. Last Start: 2nd GII Santa Anita Oaks. Kentucky Oaks Points: 40. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

Among the top names headed for the Oaks, Adare Manor became the first to stub her toe when she finished second as the 7-10 favorite in the Santa Anita Oaks for new trainer Tim Yakteen. It was her first race since winning the GIII Las Virgenes S. and perhaps Yakteen, who took over for Bob Baffert, was trying to save something for Kentucky. Nonetheless, this was a race she was not supposed to lose, even if the margin of victory was just a neck. She was dominant when winning the Las Virgenes by 13 lengths, earning a 94 Beyer figure. If she can run back to that race she'd have a chance in the Oaks. But will she? Maybe she peaked too early.

7) HIDDEN CONNECTION (Connect–C J's Gal, by Awesome Again) O-Hidden Brook Farm & Black Type Thoroughbreds; B-St. Simon Place (KY); T-W. Bret Calhoun. Sales History: $49,000 RNA wlg '19 KEENOV; $40,000 ylg '20 KEESEP; $55,000 RNA 2yo '21 OBSAPR; $85,000 2yo '21 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $399,525. Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks. Kentucky Oaks Points: 57. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

She's had one start at Churchill Downs and the result was a 9 1/4-length win in the GIII Pocahontas S. It was the best race of her life. So you know that she will handle the track. And she's going to have to run back to that race to have any chance. She's gone 0-for-3 since and is 0-2 on the year. However, she made a forward move last out when battling Echo Zulu in the Fair Grounds Oaks to lose by just a nose. Her jockey, Reylu Gutierrez, looks like a rising star after winning 51 races at the Fair Grounds meet.

8) VENTI VALENTINE (Firing Line–Glory Gold, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-NY Final Furlong Racing Stable & Parkland Thoroughbreds; B-Final Furlong Racing Stable & Maspeth Stable (NY); T-Jorge Abreu. Lifetime Record: MSW & MGSP, 5-3-2-0, $416,250. Last Start: 2nd GIII Gazelle S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 94. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

At odds of 11-10, she was the beaten favorite in the Gazelle. It was far from a bad race. She was second, losing by just 1 1/4 lengths, and got beat by a potential star in Nostalgic. But, at the same time, she had no excuse and the race showed that she belongs in the second tier when it comes to Kentucky Oaks runners. A good horse, but she'll be 40-1 or thereabouts at Churchill. Could clean up against New York-breds, but she deserves a shot in the Kentucky Oaks.

9) YUUGIRI (Shackleford–Yuzuru, by Medaglia d'Oro) O/B-Sekie Yoshihara & Tsunebumi Yoshihara (KY); T-Rodolphe Brisset. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-2-1, $543,610. Last Start: 1st GIII Fantasy S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 114. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

Yuugiri is owned and was bred by Sekie Yoshihara and Tsunebumi Yoshihara, who live in Japan. She is trained by Rodolphe Brisset. She punched her ticket to the Kentucky Oaks with a win in the GIII Fantasy S. at Oaklawn, but that race, once Secret Oath opted for the Arkansas Derby, did not come up particularly strong. A better test may have been the GIII Honeybee S., where Secret Oaks trounced her by 9 1/4 lengths. The Oaks will be her fourth start at Churchill Downs. She broke her maiden there in September and then ran second in the Rags to Riches S. and second in the GII Golden Rod S. Another good horse who will be a big long shot in what is a loaded race.

10) Desert Dawn (Cupid–Ashley's Glory, by Honour and Glory) O/B-H and E Ranch, Inc. (AZ); T-Philip D'Amato. Sales history: $32,000 RNA yrl '20 OBSOCT. Lifetime Record: 7-2-0-2, $378,400. Last Start: 1st GII Santa Anita Oaks. Kentucky Oaks Points: 108. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

Can an Arizona-bred win the Kentucky Oaks? She'll give it a shot. Was bred by and is owned by Elena and Hollis Crim of H & E Ranch, a 400-acre spread in Globe, Arizona. Normally, the winner of the Santa Anita Oaks would be among the top choices in the Kentucky Oaks, but that won't be the case with this one. She was the longest shot in the field of five at 14-1 and had been off the board in her three prior starts. That includes a sixth-place finish in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, where she was beaten by 18 3/4 lengths. Ran a career best race at Santa Anita, but that probably won't be enough.

The post The TDN Kentucky Oaks Rankings for Apr. 14 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Pioneerof the Nile’s Matareya Cruises in Beaumont

Godolphin's Matareya (Pioneerof the Nile), bet hard throughout, ran to the money in Sunday's GIII Beaumont S. at Keeneland, picking up her first stakes win with a daylight romp against six overmatched rivals.

Debuting with a smooth 4 1/2-length wire-to-wire score while geared down late Aug. 20 at Ellis, the homebred disappointed a bit when flattening out to fifth in the GI Darley Alcibiades S. on this strip Oct. 8. Finishing second as the favorite in the Fern Creek S. Nov. 27 at Churchill, the bay was a distant runner-up to sensation Secret Oath (Arrogate) in an Oaklawn allowance on New Year's Eve before putting forth a career-best 91 Beyer when rolling home by 5 1/4 lengths over allowance company Feb. 26 at Fair Grounds.

Hammered down to a smidge above even-money returning to graded stakes waters here, Matareya broke sweetly from her outside draw under Flavien Prat and led in the opening strides before deferring to rail-drawn Lady Scarlet (Union Rags) leaving the chute and heading onto the backstretch. Settling off that rival through a reasonable :22.87 quarter, the chalk began to put more pressure on the pacesetter midway around the turn and neared the stretch menacingly as Prat looked behind him for late runners. Taking control shortly after straightening for home, Matareya drew off powerfully in the final furlong, cruising past the wire 8 1/2 lengths to the good of Radio Days (Gun Runner).

“She broke really well and rated nice,” said Prat. “I was on cruise control all the way around. [Trainer] Brad [Cox] told me this morning that he really liked her, and he was right.”

Asked the key to Matareya's blossoming as a 3-year-old, Cox said, “I'd have to say the cutback [in distance of her races]. We were hoping she'd go long. She trained like she would. Flavien made the comment that he didn't see why she wouldn't. But she's kind of shown us she enjoys the cutback, so we'll probably stick to one turn for now.”

“It's huge for the pedigree,” Cox added of the win. “And huge for the broodmare band at Godolphin, which is one of the best in the world. It was a big win, so we'll let the dust settle and see how she comes out of it, but [the GII Eight Belles S. and GI Test S.] are obviously races we'll look forward to and try to work back from, and–who knows?–maybe try to get her to the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint here at Keeneland this fall.”

Pedigree Notes:
With the victory, Matareya becomes the 43rd stakes winner and 20th graded stakes winner for star sire Pioneerof the Nile, who died at age 13 in 2019. From the final crop of that stallion, she is the second foal to race out of Godolphin's Grade III winner Innovative Idea, a half-sister to GSW Lucullan (Hard Spun) out of MGSW/GISP Golden Velvet (Seeking the Gold), herself a half-sister to GISW and sire Sky Mesa (Pulpit) out of MGSW Caress (Storm Cat). Innovative Idea is responsible for a juvenile Uncle Mo filly and foaled a colt by the same sire last season before returning to the Ashford superstar once more.

Sunday, Keeneland
BEAUMONT S. PRESENTED BY KEENELAND SELECT-GIII, $400,000, Keeneland, 4-10, 3yo, f, 7f, 1:27.55, ft.
1–MATAREYA, 118, f, 3, by Pioneerof the Nile
                1st Dam: Innovative Idea (GSW, $229,343), by Bernardini
                2nd Dam: Golden Velvet, by Seeking the Gold
                3rd Dam: Caress, by Storm Cat
1ST BLACK TYPE WIN, 1ST GRADED STAKES WIN. O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brad H. Cox; J-Flavien Prat. $241,800. Lifetime Record: 6-3-2-0, $374,267. Werk Nick Rating: A+++. *Triple Plus* Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
2–Radio Days, 118, f, 3, Gun Runner–Remembered, by Sky Mesa. ($750,000 Ylg '20 KEESEP). O-Joseph Allen LLC; B-Hinkle Farms (KY); T-Claude R. McGaughey III. $78,000.
3–Reagan's Decision, 118, f, 3, Unified–Twisted Decision, by Old Fashioned. 1ST BLACK TYPE, 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. ($25,000 Wlg '19 KEENOV). O-Lael Stables; B-Brandywine Farm (Jim & Pam Robinson) & Parker Place Breeding (KY); T-Cherie DeVaux. $39,000.
Margins: 8HF, 1 3/4, 3/4. Odds: 1.10, 3.40, 16.00.
Also Ran: Lady Scarlet, Majestic d'Oro, Gina Romantica, Chi Town Lady.
Click for the Equibase.com chart, the TJCIS.com PPs or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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This Side Up: A Wrong Turn Onto the Right Road

They call it “pilot error.” It's just that you have all the correction of perspective, right there, that anyone could possibly require. If a jockey makes a mistake, the consequences obviously tend to be a good deal less drastic than for a guy flying a plane.

Besides, I have never liked the kind of blame culture that unites handicappers and horsemen in casting jockeys as the villains of their woulda-coulda-shoulda world. To be fair, perhaps that's rather more common in my native environment, racing on turf in Europe, where the tendency to restrain a horse for a late run can vividly magnify rider miscalculation. Carrying speed on dirt, however, calls for no less subtle judgement of pace and position–as was conspicuously apparent at Oaklawn last weekend.

But while these guys are only human, and no lives were lost, there's no denying how maddening it can be for those closest to a horse, to see so much patient toil unraveled in a matter of seconds by a jockey who can flit from mount to mount as insouciantly as a butterfly. These big races can represent the apex of a pyramid of development extending not months, but years, and sometimes the whole thing can crumble through the fleeting intervention of a guy who's supposed to be on your side.

(Click below to listen to this column as a podcast.)

As such, let's hope that connections of Secret Oath (Arrogate) will be rewarded for persevering with Luis Contreras in the GI Kentucky Oaks. He owes them big time, after his panicked lunge for the red button when shuffled back by the colts in the GI Arkansas Derby. The whole industry had a stake in that adventure and not many of us would match the fidelity and compassion of D. Wayne Lukas and his patrons in apparently concluding that Contreras, hardly a regular at this level, will have all due motivation to make amends in the Oaks.

Secret Oath's response to the intemperate demands of her rider was such that she may yet remain the most theatrically talented of the whole sophomore crop. For now, admittedly, that feels a fairly limited distinction so far as the males are concerned. Many observers, indeed, suspect that Secret Oath may have a tougher task on the first Friday in May than might have been the case on the Saturday. But that only makes it doubly vexing that she should have completed her preparations with a really taxing race. Luckily we know that her promising young trainer likes to keep a horse at the plow, and it's not inconceivable that Secret Oath could renew contention with the colts in the GI Preakness S.

I have to admit I wasn't crazy about the fractions set by Contreras in the GIII Oaklawn Mile, either, but by the same token a top-class rider in Flavien Prat arguably shouldn't have exposed Cezanne (Curlin) to a pace that softened him up for Fulsome (Into Mischief) to pounce from last place. Cezanne has required so much patience of the people who gave $3.65 million for him at the Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Sale, now three years ago, and this was another performance in defeat that actually made you think better of the horse. To my mind there's no question that Cezanne is capable of winning a Grade I race and it would be interesting to know whether his rider deflected any blame by suggesting that they had overstretched a sprinter. Personally, I'd still like to see this guy in the GI Met Mile.

Both these horses, for different reasons, exemplify how the hectic whirlwind of a single race can compress a far wider agenda: an awful lot of time and money, in the case of Cezanne; and a glimpse of happier headlines, for a troubled sport, with Secret Oath.

And it's going to be no different Saturday, when the final round of big Derby trials bring together an awful lot of horses with zero margin for error. As things stand, in fact, of the declared runners only Morello (Classic Empire) and Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah) have already secured a gate at Churchill. No coincidence, perhaps, that both are such natural dashers. None of the others, mostly slower burns, can afford the kind of misadventure that last week cost Secret Oath her Derby spot, albeit Messier (Empire Maker) resembles the filly in having unusual reasons for being confined to this single shot at the necessary starting points. But a lot of trainers, as we noted last week, have wittingly painted themselves into this corner by trying to reconcile their preference for a light schedule with the imperative of booking a gate.

Smile Happy (Runhappy) and Zandon (Upstart) probably can't afford another learning experience of the kind they shared in the GII Risen Star S., where both surfaced for the only time in four months and a third time overall. Both line up for the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. needing a statement performance to vindicate their precarious preparation. Smile Happy is in tolerable shape, with 30 points already banked, but Zandon sits on 14 while Emmanuel (More Than Ready), another who needs to have learned fast from a messy third start, has just five.

I'll certainly be rooting for Zandon, bred and raised by a model farm and representing a young stallion punching way above fee. Upstart already has one of the Oaks favorites in Kathleen O. and she could yet be joined by Micro Share (a $450,000 2-year-old) if getting her starting points out of the GII Santa Anita Oaks. Meanwhile Reinvestment Risk, from his sire's debut crop, looks right back in business for the GI Carter H.

This quite amazing breakout by a $10,000 stallion is just one among countless themes latent in one of the most captivating days in the whole calendar, set up perfectly by the joyous rite of spring that is opening day at Keeneland.

But wouldn't it be just typical of this business if all those Blue Grass highwire acts were suddenly toppled by Contreras, riding Ethereal Road (Quality Road) for Lukas? This colt at least compiled plenty of experience in taking four starts to break his maiden and, guess what, maybe didn't benefit from optimal tactics in the GII Rebel S., engaging on the wide outside and only tiring late after the effort of taking charge took its toll. Lukas reckons a bulb has come on since, and don't forget that it was the next horse home in the Rebel who picked up the pieces as Secret Oath surrendered second last week.

No getting away from it, that whole day fell rather flat. But if the sport was diverted from a road to redemption, with Secret Oath, perhaps her rider could already be taking us along on one of his own.

The post This Side Up: A Wrong Turn Onto the Right Road appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Ken McPeek Talks Derby Hopefuls Tiz the Bomb, Smile Happy On Writers’ Room

Housing as many as three GI Kentucky Derby starters in his barn, trainer Kenny McPeek joined the TDN Writers' Room presented by Keeneland as the Green Group Guest of the Week Tuesday to discuss Tiz the Bomb (Hit It a Bomb)'s dirt prospects and potential summer European campaign, his plan for likely GI Toyota Blue Grass S. favorite Smile Happy (Runhappy) to run in all three Triple Crown races, his thoughts on the continuing phase-out of Lasix in American racing and more.

Tiz the Bomb, a dual stakes winner and GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile turf runner-up at two, bounced back from a seventh-place run in Gulfstream's GIII Holy Bull S. to sweep a pair of synthetic-track stakes at Turfway, and will head to Louisville after being considered for a start at Newmarket in the Apr. 30 G1 2000 Guineas.

“When we ran him in Florida, the colt didn't handle the Gulfstream surface and the kickback,” McPeek said. “That surface is a little bit different, it's deep, sand-based and he just didn't go for it. I sent him to Turfway to get his confidence back in the [John] Battaglia and that worked out. So the natural next step was the Jeff Ruby and he punched, and ran a super race. I actually felt like he would be a great horse to take over for the 2000 Guineas, and the undulation of Newmarket wasn't any harder or actually could be easier than his victory at Kentucky Downs [in the Kentucky Downs Mile S.]. But due to some logistics and technicalities, he's not going to go, and our next option is either a turf race at Churchill or the Kentucky Derby. I really think at this point, the horse probably deserves a chance.”

As for Smile Happy, a no-doubt Derby contender who will make just his second start as a 3-year-old in Saturday's Blue Grass after a runner-up effort in the GII Risen Star S., McPeek said, “This is a really special colt. I've been sitting on this horse like a keg of dynamite for months now. I didn't want more than two preps going into the Kentucky Derby. I think the [Derby qualifying] points he got in Louisiana will more than likely get him in. I want to see him run well in the Blue Grass, obviously, and being a Lexington boy, it's always fun to win the Blue Grass. I didn't want to over-race this horse this winter. I really sat on him for a reason, because I think he's a horse that can handle the progression of the Derby, Preakness and Belmont. And you've got to have some juice in the tank for those races. If you're already a little tired or you've overdone it going into those three races, obviously your horse is going to be taxed. But he could set up really well for those.”

Elsewhere on the show, which is also sponsored by Coolmore, the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders' Association, XBTV, West Point Thoroughbreds and Legacy Bloodstock, the writers reacted to Secret Oath (Arrogate)'s valiant but losing performance in the GI Arkansas Derby, the beginning of Bob Baffert's 90-day suspension and the latest shenanigans surrounding banned trainer Wayne Potts. Click here to watch the podcast; click here for the audio-only version or find it on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

The post Ken McPeek Talks Derby Hopefuls Tiz the Bomb, Smile Happy On Writers’ Room appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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