Kempton Top Rated Saturday 10th January

Kempton Top Rated Saturday 10th January

Sandown

12:20
BARON NOIR 80.75
SWINGIN SAFARI 28.03
KOCKTAIL BLEU 9.27
SHABALKO D’HERM 7.10
THE EGYPTIAN GINGE 4.31
CAN U FEEL IT 0.64
MY FORTUNE 0.54
GAMBINO 0.00

12:55
GO WEST 32.50
OLD COWBOY 27.21
LEADER IN THE PARK 24.42
LOOKAWAY 23.58
PESO 6.88
OUTLAW PETER 0.00

13:30
PRECIOUS MAN 53.67
KING AL 12.60
WERTPOL 7.63
SENATOR 5.35
DISSIDENT 4.29
FRANK STAMPER 2.77
WISE COUNSELLOR 0.96
CHARTWELL JOCK 0.82
POURQUOI PAS PAPA 0.00

14:05
WELCOM TO CARTRIES 76.23
THE DOYEN CHIEF 33.44
SOUL ICON 29.00
YOUR DARLING 7.38
BEACHCOMBER 5.64
SEA INVASION 3.87

14:40
KALIF DU BERLAIS 84.38
EDWARDSTONE 51.77
BOOMBAWN 19.16
MASTER CHEWY 14.72

15:17
FRENCH SHIP 19.18
LANESBOROUGH 8.43
A PAI DE NOM 7.46
FASOL 7.02
BEAT THE BAT 4.64
DOUBLE POWERFUL 4.32
CAME FROM NOWHERE 4.16
JUST ENNEMI 4.11
KING OF THE LAKE 4.00
IBERICO LORD 3.10
JUST A ROSE 2.09
GOODWIN 1.67
IKE SPORT 1.53
WRECKLESS ERIC 1.48
YELLOW STAR 1.42
KRAK 0.55
CAPTAIN TEAGUE 0.00

15:53
WILLIETHEBUILDER 53.48
WE’RE RED AND BLUE 21.79
RARE EDITION 11.99
QUAVISTE 9.38
COURAGEOUS STRIKE 6.02
OAKLEY’S WAY 5.06
KING WILLIAM RUFUS 4.33
WASHINGTON 3.40

Sandown Top Rated Saturday 3rd January

Sandown Top Rated Saturday 3rd January

12:15
SINNATRA 48.45
FOURONEOHFEVER 37.89
POURQUOI PAS PAPA 21.44
NIGHT RIDE HOME 7.02
NELSON GATE 4.64
CONTACTO 0.00
GOLLY GOSH 0.00

12:45
KEEP RUNNING 57.32
VANDERPOEL 56.70
SIAM PARK 21.23
GABRIEL’S GETAWAY 12.60
KOTMASK 9.13

13:15
LUTTRELL LAD 34.62
PONCHO 9.41
HENRI THE SECOND 9.32
BOURBALI 6.86
DOMINIC’S FAULT 5.54
LUCKY ONE 4.50
RANGE 3.75
SONIGINO 3.72
SECRET TRIX 3.08
STOLEN SILVER 1.21
NORTH LODGE 0.00

13:50
JET PLANE 36.74
CAN YOU CALL 29.98
TRIPLE TRADE 23.72
MINELLA TRUMP 17.99
NUMITOR 7.62
HURRICANE BAY 0.00

14:25
SUNSET MARQUESA 68.88
SHANTWOPOINTFIVE 19.50
JUBILEE ALPHA 18.53
GOOD LOOK CHARM 13.10
NURSE SUSAN 5.01
THAT’LL DO MOSS 3.53

15:05
LE MILOS 23.36
NOCTE VOLATUS 20.96
GUSTAVIAN 15.34
ANNSAM 13.84
CREDO 8.46
COPPERHEAD 7.82
GABBYS CROSS 5.08
DIGBY 3.68
BLACKJACK MAGIC 2.32

15:35
DANCE AND GLANCE 27.79
ALL IN YOU 20.53
HOT FUSS 18.48
CONTINUANCE 12.28
NARDARAN 9.56
BRACE FOR LANDING 8.56
HE’S A LATCHICO 8.20
IMAGINARIUM 7.23

Leopardstown The Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle

Leopardstown The Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle 13.47 UK Time.

Koktail Brut has displayed excellent recent form with consecutive victories.
He won a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Fairyhouse on yielding to soft ground most recently, by a head.
Prior to that, he scored by nine lengths in a maiden hurdle at Punchestown on heavy.
He acts well on yielding ground, with solid performances on similar conditions.
He has course form, placing fourth in a Grade 2 bumper here on soft.
Fitness is peak following his November successes.
He possesses high class and experience in graded company.

Le Divin Enfant impressed on his Irish debut, winning a maiden hurdle by twenty-three lengths at Thurles on good to yielding.
Previously placed fourth in French hurdles on heavy and good.
He handles yielding conditions effectively, based on his latest dominant display.
No previous course experience.
He appears fit after his November run.
Lightly raced but shows promising class over hurdles.

Love Me Tender remains unbeaten with three successive wins.
She landed a Grade 3 novice hurdle at Tipperary on good to yielding last time, by six and a half lengths.
Before that, comfortable victories in a maiden hurdle at Kilbeggan and a bumper at Tramore, both on good to yielding.
She thrives on yielding ground, with all her successes on it or similar.
No course form noted.
Fitness looks sharp after her October outing.
She has graded class and progressive experience.

Mister Pessimistic is progressive, with three straight wins.
He scored by two and three-quarter lengths in a maiden hurdle at Cork on yielding most recently.
Previously won a bumper at Listowel on good to yielding and a point-to-point on good to yielding.
He performs well on yielding ground, with recent form on it.
No course experience.
Fitness is good following his November success.
He has solid experience but steps up in class.

Skylight Hustle showed marked improvement winning a maiden hurdle by twenty-one lengths at Fairyhouse on yielding to soft last time.
He was second at Gowran on heavy previously.
Earlier placed fourth in a bumper at Fairyhouse on yielding to soft.
He handles yielding conditions well, with his impressive win on it.
No course form.
Fitness excellent after his November victory.
He has potential class but limited hurdle experience.

Talk The Talk has strong recent form with back-to-back wins.
He captured a Grade 3 at Fairyhouse on yielding to soft latest, by seven and a half lengths.
Prior win in a maiden hurdle at Limerick on good to yielding.
He acts on yielding ground, with successes on similar.
No previous course runs.
Fitness is optimal after November triumph.
He boasts graded class and sound experience.

The Passing Wife has been consistent recently, placing third in her last two starts.
She was third in a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Fairyhouse on yielding to soft most recently.
Third at Gowran on heavy before that.
Previous bumper wins at Galway on soft and Bellewstown on good.
She copes with yielding ground, with placed form on it.
No course experience.
Fitness sound from November runs.
She has experience but needs to find more at this level.

Carrigmoornaspruce ran well recently, finishing second in a Grade 3 novice hurdle at Down Royal on good to yielding.
She won a maiden hurdle at Listowel on yielding prior.
Also won a Grade 3 bumper at Punchestown on yielding.
She performs on yielding ground, with multiple successes on it.
Has course form, placing third in a Grade 2 bumper here on soft.
Fitness good after October outing.
She has graded experience and class as a mare receiving allowance.

Simulation Results:

Koktail Brut 35.22%, Love Me Tender 19.78%, Talk The Talk 14.97%, Le Divin Enfant 9.98%, Skylight Hustle 8.12%, Carrigmoornaspruce 5.02%, Mister Pessimistic 4.94%, The Passing Wife 1.97%.

Equivalent fractional odds: Koktail Brut 15/8, Love Me Tender 4/1, Talk The Talk 11/2, Le Divin Enfant 9/1, Skylight Hustle 11/1, Carrigmoornaspruce 19/1, Mister Pessimistic 20/1, The Passing Wife 50/1.

The best bet is Koktail Brut.

The two value selections are Koktail Brut (live 9/1 greater than fair 15/8) and Talk The Talk (live 6/1 greater than fair 11/2).

Steamer bets will be Carrigmoornaspruce.

Trends based on last 12 years:
Koktail Brut matches the age trend at five years old.
He won his last run in the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse, within 27 days, aligning strongly with six winners taking their previous start and the specific prep race trend.
He has one previous Leopardstown run but no win, partially fitting course form.
Distance form is excellent with five runs and two wins over 15-17 furlongs.
Hurdle form includes three runs and two wins.
His rating of 135 is below 140.
No previous graded wins.
Season form shows three runs and two wins.

Le Divin Enfant fits age at four.
He won his last run within 30 days but not in the Royal Bond.
No previous Leopardstown form.
Distance form is limited with only one run and one win over 15-17 furlongs, missing the minimum of two runs.
Hurdle form has one run and one win, below the preferred two runs.
Rating 135 under 140.
No graded wins.
Season form one run and one win, below preferred two runs.

Love Me Tender aligns with age at four.
She won her last run but 83 days ago, missing the 35-day recency for most winners.
Not from the Royal Bond.
No Leopardstown form.
Distance form solid with three runs and three wins.
Hurdle form two runs and two wins.
Rating 135 below 140.
Has one graded win.
Season two runs and two wins.

Mister Pessimistic fits age at four.
Won last run but 55 days ago, outside 35 days.
Not Royal Bond.
No course form.
Distance two runs and two wins.
Hurdle one run and one win, below preferred.
Rating 124 well under 140.
No graded.
Season one run and one win, below preferred.

Skylight Hustle matches age at four.
Won last run within 28 days, but not Royal Bond.
No Leopardstown.
Distance four runs and one win, missing preferred two wins.
Hurdle three runs and one win.
Rating 141 meets 140 or higher.
No graded.
Season two runs and one win.

Talk The Talk fits age at four.
Won last run within 28 days, but not Royal Bond.
No course.
Distance three runs and two wins.
Hurdle two runs and two wins.
Rating 133 below 140.
Has one graded win.
Season two runs and two wins.

The Passing Wife aligns with age at four.
Placed in last run (Royal Bond) within 27 days, but did not win it.
No Leopardstown.
Distance five runs and two wins.
Hurdle two runs but zero wins, missing the universal one win.
Rating 143 above 140.
No graded.
Season two runs but zero wins, missing the one win.

Carrigmoornaspruce matches age at five.
Placed in last run 56 days ago, missing recency.
Not Royal Bond.
Has one Leopardstown run, no win.
Distance five runs and two wins.
Hurdle two runs and one win.
Rating 122 below 140.
No graded.
Season two runs and one win.

In order of preference: Koktail Brut, Talk The Talk, Skylight Hustle, Love Me Tender, Le Divin Enfant, The Passing Wife, Carrigmoornaspruce, Mister Pessimistic.

Leopardstown The Paddy’s Rewards Club Steeplechase

Leopardstown The Paddy’s Rewards Club Steeplechase (Grade 1) 13.12 UK Time

Marine Nationale possesses top-class form from last season, winning the Champion Chase at Cheltenham on good to soft.
He followed up with a Grade 1 success at Punchestown on yielding ground, which matches today’s conditions.
He has a course and distance win here.
Off the track since April, but his fitness should be adequate for a horse of this calibre, with proven experience in elite contests.

Found A Fifty is in excellent recent form, winning his last two starts over fences.
He beat Majborough by one and a half lengths at Cork on soft ground most recently.
Prior to that, he won at Navan on soft, beating Hercule Du Seuil.
He handles yielding ground well, with strong performances on similar going.
He has course and distance success.
Fitness is sharp after recent outings, and he shows progressive class.

Majborough ran well in his latest start, finishing a close second to Found A Fifty at Cork on soft.
He previously won at Punchestown on yielding, demonstrating preference for this going.
He has a course and distance placing.
As a young horse, he remains lightly raced over fences but shows ample experience from hurdles.
Fitness looks good following his reappearance.

Only By Night impressed with a win at Naas on soft in her most recent run, equipped with cheekpieces.
She was second in high-class novice chases at Punchestown and Cheltenham on yielding and good to soft earlier.
She handles yielding ground effectively.
No specific Leopardstown form, but suits left-handed tracks.
Current fitness is strong, with solid handicap and graded experience.

Solness has respectable form but was behind Marine Nationale at Punchestown and Cheltenham last season on yielding and good to soft.
He won this race last year on soft here, indicating course affinity.
Off since April, fitness may need the run.
He performs on yielding ground, with placed efforts.

Captain Guinness pulled up at Navan on soft in his latest outing.
He was second at Punchestown on yielding before that, showing he acts on the ground.
He has experience in Grade 1 chases but recent form is patchy.
No recent Leopardstown success, though competitive in similar contests.
Fitness questionable after poor reappearance.

Hercule Du Seuil finished third at Navan on soft last time, behind Found A Fifty.
He won at Killarney on yielding earlier in the year.
Handles yielding well, with wins on it.
Limited recent course form, but experienced over fences.
Fitness appears sound.

Simulation Results:

Marine Nationale 42.15%, Found A Fifty 27.84%, Majborough 18.92%, Only By Night 6.73%, Solness 2.36%, Hercule Du Seuil 1.00%, Captain Guinness 1.00%.

Equivalent fractional odds: Marine Nationale 11/8, Found A Fifty 13/5, Majborough 4/1, Only By Night 14/1, Solness 41/1, Hercule Du Seuil 99/1, Captain Guinness 99/1.

The best bet is Marine Nationale.

The two value selections are Marine Nationale (live 15/8 greater than fair 11/8) and Found A Fifty (live 5/1 greater than fair 13/5).

There are no steamer bets, as no horses meet the criteria of early prices higher than live by at least four points among those with the greatest chances.

Trends based on last 12 years:

Found A Fifty fits many key trends strongly.
Aged eight, he aligns with the preference for horses seven or older.
He has a rating of 164, well above 150.
He won his last run in the Hilly Way Chase at Cork, one of the three recent winners to come from that contest, and it was within 20 days.
He has three previous runs at Leopardstown with one win, meeting the course form criteria.
His distance form includes multiple runs and wins over 15-17 furlongs.
Chase experience is extensive with 19 runs and nine wins, exceeding the minimums.
He has graded wins in his record.
This season, he has one run and one win.

Captain Guinness matches the age trend at 11 years old.
Rated 160, above the threshold.
He did not win his last run but competed within 40 days.
Last run was not the Hilly Way.
He has seven previous Leopardstown runs but no wins there.
Distance and chase form are solid with ample runs and seven wins.
He possesses graded victories.
Season form includes one run without a win.

Hercule Du Seuil fits age at eight.
Rating of 151 meets the minimum.
He placed third in his last outing within 40 days, not a win and not from the Hilly Way.
One previous Leopardstown run with no win.
Strong distance form with multiple successes.
Chase record shows 17 runs and nine wins.
Has graded wins.
One season run without victory.

Majborough misses the age preference at five years old.
However, his 164 rating is high.
He finished second in his last run, the Hilly Way at Cork, within 20 days.
Two Leopardstown runs with one win.
Distance form adequate but wins total four, below the five preferred by many winners.
Chase experience includes seven runs and four wins.
Boasts two Grade 1 victories.
One season run without a win.

Only By Night aligns with age at seven.
But her rating of 148 falls below 150.
She won her last run within 48 days, though not the Hilly Way.
No noted previous Leopardstown runs or wins.
Distance form shows multiple efforts and seven wins.
Chase record of 13 runs and seven wins.
Has graded successes.
One season run with a win.

Solness fits age at seven.
Rated 161, above threshold.
He did not win his last run, and it was 242 days ago, missing the 55-day recency.
Not from the Hilly Way.
Strong course form with four runs and three wins.
Ample distance runs and wins.
21 chase runs with seven wins.
Multiple Grade 1 victories.
No runs this season.

Marine Nationale matches age at eight.
Top rating of 170.
He won his last run but 242 days ago, outside 55 days.
Not the Hilly Way.
Four Leopardstown runs with one win.
Excellent distance form.
12 chase runs with eight wins.
Multiple Grade 1 triumphs.
No runs this season.

In order of preference: Found A Fifty, Captain Guinness, Hercule Du Seuil, Majborough, Only By Night, Solness, Marine Nationale.

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