Equibase Analysis: Santa Cruiser Poised To Upset Risen Star

The Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes will be the 13th race on the 13th day of February with a field of 13 going to post at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans, La.. If you don't have a case of triskaidekaphobia, defined as fear or superstition about the number 13, this is a fantastic race.

Midnight Bourbon leads the field off his win in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes last month, the local prep for the Risen Star. Proxy finished one length behind in second behind the wire-to-wire winner, with Mandaloun another head back in third, and both attempt to turn the tables on Midnight Bourbon in the Risen Star. Similarly, Santa Cruiser will try to improve off his troubled fourth place effort in the race.

Senor Buscador won the Springboard Mile Stakes impressively by five and three-quarter lengths in December at Remington Park and will attempt to win his second stakes in a row. Then there are a number of recent maiden or allowance winners stepping into stakes company and hoping to make their mark as they head into the Louisiana Derby next month, and hopefully earn points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. That group consists of Carillo, Defeater, O Besos, Rightandjust, Sermononthemount and Starrininmydreams. Beep Beep rounds out the field coming into the race off a fourth place effort behind Rightandjust in an allowance race at Fair Grounds.

I'm going to pick Santa Cruiser for the upset in the Risen Star, even after finishing fourth and nearly 10 lengths behind the top three finishers in the Lecomte Stakes last month. The reason is a simple one: I feel if not for significant trouble at the start of that race Santa Cruiser would have at least finished second. Additionally, he had been off for two months prior to the Lecomte so he has improving to do second off the layoff. Last summer, Santa Cruiser debuted at six furlongs and finished third, then stretched out to seven furlongs and improved to finish second. When stretched out again to a mile in November, Santa Cruiser won while leading from the start but it was not an easy win as he was headed after six furlongs and had horse come to him on both sides in the stretch, digging in and drawing off. That effort earned a strong 95 Equibase Speed Figure, the best maiden winning figure in the field.

Rested to return as a 3-year-old off that win, Santa Cruiser was decently regarded by bettors at seven to one in the Lecomte Stakes but got bumped and shut off at the start, losing more than a few lengths. Not asked for any speed while last of eight for the first half-mile, Santa Cruiser showed a decent amount of ability and instinct, passing all but the three who were well ahead when the field turned for home. Getting a jockey change to Adam Beschizza, who is fighting for the riding title head and head with James Graham, and with a clean start and better early position as compared to the Lecomte, Santa Cruiser can be in the thick of the action from the start and post the upset win in this year's Risen Star.

Midnight Bourbon has done little wrong in five career starts to date, finishing second in the Iroquois Stakes in only the second start of his career last summer then winning the Lecomte Stakes last month. The 99 figure is the second best earned by any horse in the Risen Star field to date and it is likely to be improved upon as Midnight Bourbon is making his second start after three months off. Although he won the Lecomte leading from start to finish, Midnight Bourbon has shown the ability to pass horses such as in the Iroquois when fifth in the early stages then first with an eighth of a mile to go before settling for second. Being a half-brother to 2017 Louisiana Derby winner Girvin, there's little doubt this colt can run as well or better at the nine furlong trip of the Risen Star as he did in the shorter Lecomte Stakes and as such Midnight Bourbon could be a formidable opponent once more.

Senor Buscador stretched out off a visually impressive seventh to first win at five and one-half furlongs in his November debut to win the Springboard Mile Stakes just as impressively in his second career start the next month. In that race, Senor Buscador was last of 10 for the first half-mile and more than 10 lengths back, but went from eighth to first on the turn while circling the field wide, eventually drawing off to a five and three-quarter length win. The 107 figure is by far the best earned by any horse in the Risen Star field and being as this race will be only the third start of his career, Senor Buscador has every right to improve off the effort. His pedigree also suggests the mile and one-eighth trip will be within his reach, as he is a half-brother to 2018 Sunland Park Derby winner Runaway Ghost. Additionally, a STATS Race Lens query shows how well trainer Todd Fincher does keeping his horses in top form, having won eight of 27 (30%) dirt route races over the past few years when his horse won its previous start.

A number of other horses have a chance to finish second or third, including the Lecomte second and third place finishers, Proxy (97 figure) and Mandaloun (97 figure), respectively. However watching the race not only were they no match for Midnight Bourbon I felt both ran pretty evenly in the last eighth of a mile and I don't expect enough improvement to turn the tables in the Risen Star.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Carillo (86), Defeater (84), O Besos (94), Rightandjust (90), Sermononthemount (72), Starrininmydreams (88) and Beep Beep (91).

Win Contenders:
Santa Cruiser
Midnight Bourbon
Senor Buscador

Risen Star Stakes – Grade 2
Race 13 at Fair Grounds
Saturday, February 13 – Post Time 7:18 PM E.T.
One and One Eighth Miles
3-Year-Olds
Purse: $400,000

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Equibase Analysis: Regular Guy With Fancy Pedigree Ready To Excel

A field of 11 is entered to run in the Grade 3, $200,000 Lecomte Stakes, the stepping stone to the Risen Star Stakes and to the Louisiana Derby, all run at Fair Grounds on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby.” As is usually the case for newly turned 3-year-olds in early Kentucky Derby prep races, few have run in stakes at this point in their careers. Of those with stakes credentials, Midnight Bourbon might be most notable as he finished second in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes last September then third in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes in October. Game Day Play won the Clever Trevor Stakes in October and is trying two turns for the first time. Red N Wild missed by a head in the Clever Trevor then two races later was third, beaten nine lengths, in the Remington Springboard Mile Stakes.

Arabian Prince is another who has made a mark in stakes races, albeit a small one, when finishing third in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at the end of November. Lastly among those with stakes experience, Dyn O Mite finished fifth in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes and Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity last summer as a maiden. He has won two races in a row since then.

Among the horses which are stepping into the stakes ranks for the first time are Beep Beep, Manor House, Regular Guy and Santa Cruiser, who exit maiden races all won in visually impressive fashion. Mandaloun and Proxy earned wins in their most recent starts in first level allowance races.

I'm going to start my list of horses I think can win the Lecomte Stakes with Regular Guy. This colt didn't run well at all in his first two starts, both sprints and both last summer, finishing ninth then sixth. Given two months off to mature and stretching out to a mile, Regular Guy finished second behind Santa Cruiser (who is also entered here) and earned a stellar 96 Equibase Speed Figure, which is the second best figure earned by any horse in this field. Making his first start at Fair Grounds and first start around two-turns four weeks ago, Regular Guy didn't run as fast but he won fairly easily in a field of nine.

Besides logical improvement in his second two-turn race and second at the meeting, Regular Guy also put in a very strong five furlong workout in 100.4 which was the third best of 37 on the day and that total likely included a number of older and more seasoned horses. Even better, Regular Guy has the breeding to be something special as a STATS Race Lens pedigree query yields his dam (the Unbridled's Song mare Rebridled Dreams) has produced two exceptional 3-year-olds in her short breeding career. One was Farrell, who earned over $1 million and won the 2017 Fair Grounds Oaks, and the other was Carpe Diem, winner of $1.5 million including the Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass Stakes in 2014. As such, I expect Regular Guy to take a big step forward just as his siblings did during their 3-year-old campaigns and post the upset win in this year's Lecomte Stakes.

Santa Cruiser hasn't been seen since winning at a mile in November and beating Regular Guy by a length and one-half. That effort earned a 98 Equibase figure, which is the best earned by any horse in the field. I don't think the time off is of any concern particularly as Santa Cruiser has put in three straight workouts at Fair Grounds in preparation for this race. Trainer Keith Desormeaux (who also saddles Dyn O Mite) has had his share of success on the “Road to the Derby,” sometimes at high odds (Sonneteer at 99/1 in the 2017 Rebel Stakes). Therefore if Desormeaux thinks Santa Cruiser is ready for this level of competition, as well as if I think Regular Guy is a contender – as he was beaten by Santa Cruiser the only time they met, then improved to win – I must give Santa Cruiser a strong look as a contender in this race.

Mandaloun is two-for-two in his career to date, winning with a nice rally from ninth in his debut in October then improving to win a first level allowance race at seven furlongs in late November. Improving to a 94 figure with that win, the third best figure in the field, Mandaloun is on a pattern for even better in the Lecomte, provided he runs as well in his first route. That shouldn't be an issue as a son of Into Mischief, who has produced some top 3-year-olds in recent years including Authentic, Audible and Owendale. Trainer Brad Cox is already off to a sparkling start at the Fair Grounds meeting, winning 24% (13 of 55) races through last weekend, and jockey Florent Geroux rides Mandaloun again after being aboard for his first two wins.

Midnight Bourbon, like Santa Cruiser, has “Road to the Derby” breeding to go along with stakes quality form. His dam, the Malibu Moon mare Catch the Moon, produced 2015 Iroquois Stakes winner Cocked and Loaded as well as one of the top 3-year-olds in 2017, Girvin, who won the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby leading to $1.6 million in career earnings. Midnight Bourbon finished second in last year's Iroquois Stakes after making the lead and opening up with an eighth of a mile to go, earning a 91 figure which, if improved upon, is definitely competitive with the main contenders. Getting the ground saving rail and moving to trainer Asmussen's number one jockey in Ricardo Santana Jr. for the first time, Midnight Bourbon absolutely rounds out a strong quartet of win contenders in the Lecomte Stakes. 

The rest of the Lecomte Stakes field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures:  Arabian Prince (87), Beep Beep (91), Dyn O Mite (84), Game Day Play (80), Manor House (87), Proxy (85) and Red N Wild (91).

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Regular Guy
Santa Cruiser
Mandaloun
Midnight Bourbon

$200,000 Lecomte Stakes – Grade 3
Fair Grounds
Saturday, January 16, 2021 – 13th Race. Post Time 6:49 PM E.T.
Three Year Olds

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