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Equibase Analysis: Runhappy Malibu Opponents May Need To Sprout Wings To Beat Flightline

Seven horses are entered in the Grade 1, $300,000 Runhappy Malibu Stakes, one of six stakes races, all graded, which make up the opening day card for the 2021-'22 meet at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, Calif.

In terms of earnings, Dr. Schivel tops the group with $876,000 banked to date, much of it earned last month when second and beaten a nose in the G1 Breeders' Cup Sprint against older horses. Prior to that, Dr. Schivel won the G2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship and the G1 Bing Crosby Stakes to prove he belongs in this race.

Stilleto Boy also ran in a race on that star-studded card but didn't fare nearly as well when fifth of eight in the G1 Breeders' Cup Classic, with his best effort of the year coming when second in the G1 Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita one month earlier.

Next in terms of accomplishments is invader Timeless Bounty, who has earned $210,714 in his career and who just pulled off the 59-1 upset in the $250,000 Steel Valley Sprint Stakes one month ago at Mahoning Valley in Ohio.

Baby Yoda won three of his first four starts including a pair of impressive efforts at Saratoga this summer. At this level, however, he did not fare so well, finishing third in the G2 Vosburgh Stakes before a seventh-place effort as the heavy favorite in the Steel Valley Sprint.

Team Merchants won the non-graded Let It Ride Stakes on the turf last month and has won two of five on dirt but his two previous tries in graded stakes resulted in fourth and 13th-place finishes.

Last but absolutely not least are a pair of horses who are undefeated in two starts to date and who are running in a stakes for the first time. One of those is Flightline, with an average winning margin of 13 lengths in his two wins. The other is Triple Tap, a half-brother to champion and Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Triple Tap has won his two starts by a combined 6 1/2 lengths and appears to be a horse with an exceptionally bright future.

Win contender:

There is no discussion about this race that does not involve Flightline winning, and possibly dominating, this year's Runhappy Malibu Stakes. I cannot ever recall a 3- year-old doing what this colt has done in his two starts to date. In his debut in April, Flightline was bumped at the start and found himself sixth of eight and about 1 1/2 lengths from the leader. After a sixteenth of a mile had been run, Flightline had taken the lead and by the time the field hit the stretch he was in front by 10 lengths, eventually drawing off to win by 13 1/4 lengths. For that effort, Flightline earned a virtually unheard of 116 Equibase Speed Figure which at that time of year would have high enough to win a graded stakes.

Away from the races for a little over four months after that, Flightline relaxed in second for the first quarter mile and then won by nearly 13 lengths, this time earning a grade 1 figure of 130. To put that kind of effort into perspective, Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Aloha West earned a 110 figure and Breeders' Cup Classic winner Knicks Go earned a 118 figure. Even impressive Breeders' Cup Mile winner Life is Good (120 figure) did not run as fast as Flightline did in that effort on September 5.

Rested almost four months this time, Flightline has been working out strongly every six to eight days since October 31, including three straight workouts that were the best of the morning from among 28, 57 and 41 horses that day. Jockey Flavien Prat, who rode Flightline to victory in both starts, also rode Dr. Schivel to win four straight races and to a nose defeat in the Breeders' Cup Sprint but chooses Flightline in the Malibu. Prat also rode Triple Tap to both of his impressive wins and chooses Flightline.

Going back to how fast Flightline has run in his two starts to date, comparing those efforts to the rest of the Malibu field, even the 116 figure Flightline earned in his maiden win in April is faster than the best figure any other horse in the field has earned this year, and if he repeats the 130 figure effort from September, and even if horses like Triple Tap (107 last race figure and Dr. Schivel (112 and 110 figures in his last two races) improve off those recent efforts, it is going to be very difficult to beat Flightline in this race.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Baby Yoda (111), Dr. Schivel (112), Stilleto Boy (106), Team Merchants (109), Timeless Bounty (100) and Triple Tap (107).

The horse to beat in this year's Malibu Stakes is Flightline.

If you are looking for a horse to come on strongly in the late stages and to finish second or third, the best options appear to be Dr. Schivel, Team Merchants and Timeless Bounty.

Runhappy Malibu Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Santa Anita
Sunday, December 26, 2021 – Post Time 6:49 PM E.T.
Seven Furlongs
Three Year Olds
Purse: $300,000

Ellis Starr is national racing analyst for Equibase

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A Christmas Tradition: Gin Fizzes, Turkey Dinner And Daily Racing Forms For Santa Anita’s Opening Day

I married into a horse racing family. No, Carol's parents weren't major owners or breeders (they did dabble with a few claiming horses), but you would be hard-pressed to find two people who were more dedicated to the sport and enthusiastic about the challenge of picking and betting on winners than Bill and Helen Watts.

They seldom missed a day at Santa Anita – weekdays or weekends. Bill was employed as a trader at Merrill Lynch in downtown Los Angeles and was free to head to the track in Arcadia when the markets closed at 1:00 p.m. Pacific. Helen's job, it seems, was going to the races. She drove 15 miles from their home in Covina to Santa Anita and was always there well in advance of the daily double. She'd give Bill a report on the first couple races when he arrived from work (though, in those days, you could keep up with the results on KNX News Radio, which played the stretch calls and gave the payouts of every race).

They were delighted to learn their daughter was dating someone she met at the Los Angeles office of Daily Racing Form, where Carol and I both worked in the 1980s. It may have had something to do with the fact we could grab a couple of extra copies of the Form when it was hot off the presses and not yet in distribution, saving them each $1.50.

A couple years later, when we decided to marry, Carol and I were told in no uncertain terms that the wedding would not take place during the Santa Anita winter-spring meet, the Del Mar summer meet, or the Santa Anita fall meeting then run by the Oak Tree Racing Association. That left late April-June and November-December during Hollywood Park, or September during the Los Angeles County Fair race meeting at Pomona. We set Sept. 25, 1983, for our wedding date.

Bill and Helen's lives were organized around the sport. Vacations – sometimes group tours to visit racetracks, breeding farms and training centers overseas – had to fit into those same time slots as our wedding. Social events with friends or business associates on race days were highly discouraged and avoided as much as possible.

One of their favorite days of the year was Christmas, not so much because of the religious aspects or good cheer of the holiday. It was due to the anticipation and excitement of what came next: opening day at Santa Anita. (One of their other favorite days each year was the mid-July opening day at Del Mar, which they also never missed.)

I have to laugh when I hear someone complain about awkward Christmas dinner conversations with in-laws. Questions like, “When are you going to have kids?” or, “Have you thought about a career change?” never came up in our dinner table discussions.

It was more like, “Who do you like in the double?” “Do you want to put in a Pick 6 ticket with us?” or, “How big do you think the opening day crowd is going to be tomorrow?” (Note: this was back when opening day attendance of 50,000-60,000 was common and leaving the track could be a traffic nightmare.)

The Watts family Christmas Day tradition began with gin fizzes and the opening of a few presents, and then on to a feast of turkey with all the trimmings. Once the dinner table was cleared, the Daily Racing Forms came out and the serious business began. We'd go through every race, each of us giving our picks, and why.

There may have been a better time for Southern California horse racing than the early to mid-1980s, but I never experienced anything more exciting. The jockey colony – Hall of Famers Bill Shoemaker, Laffit Pincay Jr., Chris McCarron, Eddie Delahoussaye, Sandy Hawley, Darrel McHargue and a newcomer named Gary Stevens – was the best I will ever see. Hall of Fame trainers like Charlie Whittingham, Laz Barrera, Gary Jones, Richard Mandella, Robert Frankel and an upstart from the Quarter Horse world named D. Wayne Lukas seemed to dominate the big races. It was the Golden Era for me.

Bill and Helen have both passed in recent years, but I know if there's a heaven above with a newsstand selling the Daily Racing Form, they'll start handicapping the daily double as soon as Christmas dinner is over. And some how, some way, they'll find a place to make a wager. They never met a race they didn't like, especially on opening day at Santa Anita.

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Weekend Lineup: Santa Anita’s Opening Is The Day After Christmas Present For Racing Fans

The only graded stakes in North America this weekend fall on Santa Anita's traditional day after Christmas opening day, when the Arcadia, Calif., track unwraps six graded stakes on an 11-race card that gets under way at 11 a.m. Pacific/2 p.m. Eastern.

Three of the six stakes are G1: the Runhappy Malibu for 3-year-olds going seven furlongs on dirt, the La Brea for 3-year-old fillies going the same distance, and the American Oaks for 3-year-old fillies going 1 1/4 miles on turf in a race scheduled to begin on the reopened Santa Anita downhill turf course.

New to the expansive Santa Anita betting menu is a special opening day mid-pick 4 wager offered on races five through eight and featuring a 50-cent minimum. The bet will be offered on days when 11 races are carded.

Following Sunday's opening-day program, Santa Anita will offer a special nine-race Monday card that kicks off with a 12 noon PT first post.

While Santa Anita's day after Christmas opening is the gift many horseplayers and fans have been waiting for, there is non-graded stakes action on Sunday at Laurel Park in Maryland, Florida's Gulfstream Park and Fair Grounds in New Orleans, La.

Here's a brief preview of Santa Anita's opening day graded stakes:

Sunday

4:08 p.m. ET – G2 San Gabriel Stakes at Santa Anita

The fifth race on the card, the San Gabriel will see Dan Blacker-trained Hit the Road, a More Than Ready colt who earlier this year won the G1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile Stakes at Santa Anita going one mile, stretch out to nine furlongs for the first time. Umberto Rispoli, a perfect three-for-three aboard Hit the Road, will be back aboard the 4-year-old colt after Florent Geroux handled him in his last four starts. Look for Michael McCarthy-trained Friar's Road to be flying late under Jose Ortiz, who traveled west to ride several horses for McCarthy on the opening day card. The Quality Road colt has yet to win a stakes but was third, beaten a head, in the G2 John Henry Turf Championship Stakes two starts back at Santa Anita.

San Gabriel entries

4:40 p.m. – San Antonio Stakes at Santa Anita

G1 Pennsylvania Derby winner Hot Rod Charlie was not disgraced when fourth behind likely Horse of the Year Knicks Go in his first try against older horses in the G1 Breeders' Cup Classic at Del Mar on Nov. 6. He's the heavy morning line favorite in the San Antonio under regular rider Flavien Prat, and trainer Doug O'Neill is removing blinkers from the Oxbow colt's equipment after they were added for the Breeders' Cup. Kiss Today Goodbye defends his San Antonio title for trainer Eric Kruljac and Bob Baffert has two runners – Eight Rings and Azul Coast – in the field of seven.

San Antonio entries

5:12 p.m. – Santa Anita Mathis Brothers Mile Stakes

With Hit the Road opting to stretch out in the San Gabriel, the Mathis Brothers Mile came up a very competitive race, with Del Mar's G1 Hollywood Derby upset winner Beyond Brilliant the 5-2 morning line favorite for trainer John Shirreffs and jockey Kent Desormeaux. Du Jour is the second choice at 3-1 on the morning line for trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Flavien Prat. The Temple City colt is two-for-two over the Santa Anita turf, breaking his maiden and adding an allowance win there earlier this year. He also won the G2 American Turf Stakes on Kentucky Derby day at Churchill Downs.

Santa Anita Mathis Brothers Mile entries

5:44 p.m. – La Brea Stakes at Santa Anita

Private Mission threw down ridiculously fast fractions before hitting the wall on the stretch turn and finishing last in the G1 Breeders' Cup Distaff going 1 1/8 miles at Del Mar. The Into Mischief filly trained by Bob Baffert showed the ability to win against good company going two turns in the G2 Zenyatta Stakes at Santa Anita in October, but she might find the elongated seven-furlong sprint distance even more to her liking here. The 8-5 morning line favorite will be ridden by Flavien Prat. None of the other six fillies have faced as tough a competition as Private Mission has, though the other Baffert filly in the line-up, Kalypso, did win the G2 Santa Ynez over the same distance at Santa Anita last January.

La Brea entries

6:49 p.m. – Runhappy Malibu Stakes at Santa Anita

How good is Flightline? The Tapit colt earned respective Beyer Speed Figures of 105 and 114 while winning his first two starts by a combined 18 lengths – a maiden race at Santa Anita in April and a Sept. 5 allowance race at Del Mar – but this will be the first stakes test for the John Sadler runner. The $1-million Fasig-Tipton Saratoga yearling purchase hasn't missed a beat in his training and gets leading West Coast rider Flavien Prat, also the regular rider of Dr. Schivel, the second choice in the morning line for the Malibu. Dr. Schivel, who lost the G1 Breeders' Cup Sprint by a nose to Aloha West, always brings his “A” game, and the Mark Glatt-trained colt by Violence figures to be right in the thick of things. Rising Southern California star Juan Hernandez, who rode Dr. Schivel to a maiden victory in 2020, will be aboard. An interesting wild card is Baby Yoda, a Bill Mott-trained invader from the East who received a 114 Beyer Speed Figure for an allowance race win at Saratoga on Sept. 4 the day before Flightline won at Del Mar. He's had two disappointing runs since then but gets Jose Ortiz back aboard.

Runhappy Malibu entries

7:20 p.m. – American Oaks at Santa Anita

It's impossible to overlook Going Global's perfect four-for-four record over the Santa Anita turf course or her overall mark of seven wins in 11 starts. The five-time graded stakes winner is one of two Phil D'Amato runners in the line-up for the American Oaks, which begins midway down the hillside turf course and takes one lap around the infield oval. Michael McCarthy has four entered in the 11-horse Oaks field, none of them stakes winners but all capable of improvement. The best of his quartet might be Nicest, an Irish-bred daughter of American Pharoah who was good third in the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot in June and third in the G1 Irish Oaks a month later. She will have John Velazquez aboard for her third U.S. stakes try. Two other shippers, Chad Brown-trained Fluffy Socks, a two-time graded stakes winner, and Victoria Oliver-trained Core Values, make the American Oaks a challenging race to handicap.

American Oaks entries

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Santa Anita’s Opening Day Wagering Menu To Include Special 50-Cent Mid-Pick 4

With an 11-race card highlighted by six graded stakes, including three Grade 1 events, Santa Anita's traditional Winter/Spring Meet opening day this Sunday, Dec. 26, will offer players a treasure trove of betting opportunities including the popular 20 cent Single Ticket Rainbow Pick Six Jackpot. Santa Anita's comprehensive betting menu will include a special Opening Day Mid-Pick 4, a 50 cent bet offered on races 5, 6, 7 & 8, as well as a wide variety of other wagers, including a North American-low takeout of 15.43 percent on all $2 Win, Place and Show wagers.

In addition to the Opening Day Mid-Pick 4, Santa Anita will again offer the 50 cent Early Pick 5, which features a low 14 percent takeout, as well as the 50 cent Late Pick 5.

With the Jackpot provision in place, the 20 cent Single Ticket Rainbow Pick Six requires a perfect single ticket in order to key a potentially life changing payoff. Providing there is no single ticket winner, consolation tickets with the highest number of winners receive a payoff on 70 percent of the net pool. The remaining 30 percent is carried over to a Jackpot pool, which will continue to accrue until there is a single ticket winner or there is a designated mandatory payoff day.

The $1 Stronach Five will again be offered each Friday and will consist of a fast paced series of five races from Santa Anita, Gulfstream Park, Laurel Park and Golden Gate Fields. The Stronach Five offers players a low takeout of 12 percent.

Santa Anita will also continue to offer the $5 Golden Hour Double, and the $1 Golden Hour Pick 4. Both wagers embrace late races at both Santa Anita and Golden Gate Fields.

On most race days, there will be an Early and Late 50 cent Pick Four. On opening day, and all other days on which 11 races are carded, there will also be a 50 cent Mid-Pick Four. With 11 races on opening day, this Saturday, the Early Pick 4 will start with Race 2, the Mid-Four with Race 5 and the Late Pick Four will start with Race 8.

Players will also once again be offered one dollar exactas, two dollar rolling Daily Doubles, 50 cent rolling Pick 3s, as well as 10 cent Superfectas on all races with a minimum of six runners.

Additionally, the One Dollar Super High 5 is again available in all races with seven or more declared starters. The wager is available on all races that have seven or more declared starters. There is a 100 percent payout on all tickets selecting five winners, no consolation and a 100 percent carryover to the next race (including to the next day, if applicable).

Santa Anita Park estimates paying out over $18 million on Opening Day, based on historical pari-mutuel handle numbers.

Players that use the wagering app 1/ST BET or Xpressbet will get a bonus $10,000 in *splits:

* For instance, a “split” on a $5,000 prize pool will be evenly distributed among all players making winning bets. If four winning players are to share the split, each would receive $1,250.

–A $2,000 split on the Early Pick 5

–A $3,000 split on the Late Pick 5

–a $5,000 split on the Late Pick 4

Santa Anita offers the most information for players including:

–Free Video workouts at xbtv.com

–Free Analysis from Jeff Seigel

–Free Analysis from other handicappers

–Free trip notes from the Trip Note Pros. Players can sign up at santaanita.com/tripnotepros

Special early first post time on opening day, Saturday, Dec. 26, is at 11 a.m. For additional information, please visit santaanita.com or call (626) 574-RACE.

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