Sam F. Davis Stakes | Horse Racing Free Tips

Smiley Sobotka Makes ’21 Debut in Sam Davis

Albaugh Family Stables' Smiley Sobotka (Brody's Cause), last seen finishing second behind Keepmeinmind (Laoban) in the Nov. 28 GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., makes his sophomore debut in the 1 1/16-mile GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa Bay Downs Saturday. The chestnut colt tuned up for his return to the races with a four-furlong drill in :46.81 (2/118) at Gulfstream Park last Saturday.

Michael Shanley's Nova Rags (Union Rags) makes a return trip to Tampa following his win in the seven-furlong Pasco S. last time out Jan. 16. The Bill Mott trainee, a maiden winner first-out at Belmont last October, was fourth in the Nov. 8 GIII Nashua S. in the finale of his two-race juvenile campaign.

Mott also saddles Candy Man Rocket (Candy Ride {Arg}) in the Davis. The dark bay colt romped to a 9 1/4-length maiden win going six furlongs at Gulfstream Park Jan. 9.

“Both of our horses have been training well, and we're anxiously awaiting the outcome to see if we have horses good enough to go on and come back for the [GII Lambholm South] Tampa Bay Derby [Mar. 6],” Mott said Friday from his South Florida base. “It's a big test for both horses, and we have no great expectations. Candy Man Rocket hasn't been beyond 6 1/2 furlongs and Nova Rags hasn't raced around two turns yet, so they need to be tested to find out how far they want to go.”

Trainer Todd Pletcher sends out a pair of runners in the Davis. St Elias Stables homebred Known Agenda (Curlin) makes his first start since finishing third in the GIII Remsen S. last December, while Donegal Racing's Millean (Blame) graduated versus $50,000 maiden claimers at Gulfstream Jan. 10.

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Equibase Analysis: Mott Holding A Pair Of Aces In Sam F. Davis

This Saturday's Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes is the local prep race for the Tampa Bay Derby four weeks from today and brings together a field of 12 (plus one also-eligible) attempting to become one of the betting favorites going into that race as well as to earn points on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby.”

Only five of the 13 have ever run in stakes races. Of those, Nova Rags is one of two which are stakes winners, having won the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs last month around one turn, not the two-turn trip like the Sam F. Davis. Boca Boy is another with a stakes win, that coming last September in the In Reality Stakes. He is returning from a four and one-half month layoff since that race.

Smiley Sobotka finished second in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall around two-turns but is returning to the races following more than two months off and facing many who have run more recently. Known Agenda finished third in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes last December and is yet another coming into the race off a layoff. Runway Magic finished third in the Limehouse Stakes last month at Gulfstream Park, a one-turn race and rounds out those which have competed in stakes before today.

Then there is a trio of recent winners on dirt who could step up to the task. This trio includes local winner Ricochet, impressive nine length winner Candy Man Rocket and Hidden Stash, who is another coming back from more than three months off. Millean won his most recent race last month but in a maiden claiming race so appears a bit overmatched. Joe Man Joe and Lucky Law finished second and first, respectively, in their most recent starts. Both were around two-turns but were on turf so it remains to be seen if they can transfer that form to dirt and improve to be competitive in a stakes as well. Last Investment and also-eligible Tiz Tact Toe round out the field as horses who have yet to break their maidens in seven combined starts.

Candy Man Rocket gets slight preference among three main win contenders in this year's Sam F. Davis Stakes, although he has never raced around two turns and has only a maiden win to his credit. I think this colt has tremendous upside based on earning a field high 98 Equibase Speed Figure in his nine length maiden win last month sprinting at Gulfstream Park. Considering this will be only his third career start, Candy Man Rocket has every right to continue to improve and that means his opponents would have to improve doubly in order to beat him even if he simply repeats the effort. There is little doubt Candy Man Rocket can do just that around two-turns as a son of Candy Ride, whose has had 12 of his 34 foals win stakes races for three year olds over the last five years. Some of those are big names such as Vekoma and Gun Runner. Then there's the prowess his Hall-of-Fame trainer has in recognizing talent. Over the last five years, when trainer Bill Mott raises a horse off a maiden win to a stakes race, his charges have finished first or second in 10 of 20 tries. All those factors lead me to believe Candy Man Rocket can pull off the upset in this race.

Mott also saddles Nova Rags, one of just two stakes winners in the field. Nova Rags returned from two months off last month and won the Pasco Stakes at seven furlongs. Although the 85 is well behind the 98 figure his stablemate earned one week earlier, Nova Rags has every right to improve second off the layoff and around two turns. Sired by 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags, Nova Rags is out of the Smart Strike mare Wishful Splendor, whose sons and daughters have won 17 of 73 dirt route races, including 2011 Indiana Oaks winner Juanita. To be ridden by Tampa Bay Downs leading jockey Sammy Camacho, Nova Rags can take a big step forward in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and toss his name into the ring as a top three year old on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Ricochet is a two-turn winner at Tampa, a claim none of the other 12 horses in this race can make. Stretched out to two-turns for the first time at the end of November, Ricochet opened up by two and one-half lengths in the stretch only to be nailed right on the wire by a head. Improving to a career-best 94 figure which is the second best in the field by far, Ricochet made short work of the field in December when winning by eight lengths. On a pattern for another step forward, if Candy Man Rocket does not improve as expected, Ricochet would be no surprise winning this race.

After that group of three, there are four more which deserve honorable mention – Hidden Stash, Known Agenda, Lucky Law and Smiley Sobotka, each having good reasons to consider them as contenders but each also with slight question marks. Hidden Stash improved to a career best 89 figure when last seen at the end of November, bringing his record around two-turns to a perfect two-for-two. However, coming back from two months off he would need to be in tip-top shape to pick up where he left off. Known Agenda won a nine furlong race in November, the second start of his career, earning an 86 figure in the process. He improved to 88 although a well-beaten third in the Remsen Stakes in December and if this was his second start off a layoff, not his first, I think he would be a top contender. Similarly, Smiley Sobotka improved nicely in his first route and second career start in October to win then finished second of nine in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (with a 90 figure) after opening up by a couple of lengths with an eighth of a mile to go. He's been working fast but there is always the concern about needing a race before running well enough to win around two turns off a layoff. Lucky Law stretched out to two turns off a runner-up effort and won nicely last month. Both races were on turf so he would need to transfer that form to dirt and improve off the 83 figure earned in that last start. However, trainer Patrick Biancone successfully transitioned horses to dirt on the Road to the Derby last year with both Ete Indien and Sole Volante.

The rest of the field, all who have the ability to compete effectively in this race, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Boca Boy (78), Joe Man Joe (89), Millean (84), Last Investment (81), Tiz Tact Toe (78) and Runway Magic (92).

Win Contenders, in probability order:
Candy Man Rocket
Nova Rags
Ricochet

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Saturday’s Cross Country Pick 5 Features Pair Of Derby Preps, Free PPs

The New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA) will host a Cross Country Pick 5 on Saturday featuring Kentucky Derby qualifiers from Aqueduct Racetrack and Tampa Bay Downs.

Live coverage will be available with America's Day at the Races on FOX Sports. Free Equibase past performances for the Cross Country Pick 5 sequence are now available for download at https://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/racing/cross-country-wagers.

Saturday's sequence kicks off with a field of eight New York-bred fillies and mares going seven furlongs in a first level allowance event. Trainer Carlos Soto sends last out winner Mabel Island from Parx Racing in pursuit of victory after defeating four others in a starter allowance at Parx by 7 ¼ lengths. Also attempting a second straight win is Fair Lassie, who won for a $25,000 tag on January 31 at the Big A for trainer Karl Broberg. Carded as Race 7 on the nine-race program, the first leg of the Cross Country Pick 5 has a post time of 3:55 p.m.

Action shifts to Tampa Bay Downs in Oldsmar, Florida for the $150,000 Suncoast for sophomore fillies going a mile and 40 yards over the main track. The race is a 10-4-2-1 Kentucky Oaks qualifier, and features previous Tampa stakes winners in J D Farms' Special Princess, who dead-heated for victory in the last out Gasparilla for trainer Walter Woodard, as well as Feeling Mischief from the barn of Michael Campbell, who took the Sandpiper on December 5. The Suncoast is scheduled as Race 9 with a 4:22 p.m. post time.

Aqueduct takes the reins for the middle race in the sequence when a field of nine 3-year-old colts pursue Kentucky Derby points in the Grade 3, $250,000 Withers going nine furlongs. The second local prep on the calendar year for the 'Run for the Roses' features two maiden special weight winners for trainer Todd Pletcher including royally-bred Overtook, a product of multiple champion-producing sire Curlin and Grade 1-winner Got Lucky.

Owned by Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable, Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier and Derrick Smith, Overtook came from 10 lengths off the pace in his last out maiden victory going a one-turn mile at the Big A. Donegal Bay ships from South Florida after a gate-to-wire maiden score also at a one-turn mile at Gulfstream Park. Scheduled as Race 8, the Withers will go off at 4:25 p.m.

The final two legs of the sequence will be hosted by Tampa Bay Downs. In the penultimate leg, eight fillies and mares travel the 1 1/16-mile distance in the Grade 3, $175,000 Endeavour [Race 10; 4:32 p.m.] on the turf. Never short on talent in the turf category, trainer Chad Brown will send Klaravich Stables' Counterparty Risk off a close second in her stakes debut, which took place in the December 26 Lady Shamrock at Santa Anita. R Unicorn Stable's New York Girl will seek to go 2-for-2 in North America for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott after a New Year's Eve allowance score over the turf at Gulfstream Park.

The Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis (Race 11; 5:02 p.m.) closes the curtain on the sequence when a field of 12 sophomore colts, plus one also eligible entrant, go into line in pursuit of Derby qualifying points. The 1 1/16-mile event awards points to the top-four finishers according to a 10-4-2-1 scale and features graded stakes-placed Known Agenda.

The Pletcher-trained St. Elias Stables homebred was third in the Grade 2 Remsen at Aqueduct last out after breaking his maiden going nine furlongs at the Big A. Pletcher also sends out Donegal Racing's Millean, who broke his maiden going a one-turn mile at Gulfstream Park last out. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott will be represented by stakes winner Nova Rags, who arrives off a score in the seven-furlong Pasco at Tampa Bay Downs, as well as highly impressive maiden winner Candy Man Rocket. Trainer Dale Romans will send out Smiley Sobotka after a close runner-up finish in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs in November.

The minimum bet for the multi-track, multi-race wager is 50 cents. Wagering on the Cross Country Pick 5 is available on ADW platforms and at simulcast facilities across the country. Every week will feature a mandatory payout of the net pool. The Cross Country Pick 5 will continue each Saturday throughout the year. For more information, visit NYRABets.com.

Cross Country Pick 5 – Saturday, February 6:
Leg A: Aqueduct-Race 7 (3:55 p.m.)
Leg B: Tampa Bay Downs-Race 9 $150K Suncoast (4:02 p.m.)
Leg C: Aqueduct-Race 8 G3 $250K Withers (4:25 p.m.)
Leg D: Tampa Bay Downs-Race 10 G3 $175K Endeavour (4:32 p.m.)
Leg E: Tampa Bay Downs-Race 11 G3 $250K Sam F. Davis (5:02 p.m.)

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Nova Rags, Candy Man Rocket Give Mott One-Two Punch In Sam F. Davis Stakes

Nova Rags, who won the Pasco Stakes on Jan. 16, and Candy Man Rocket, a runaway winner of a maiden special weight sprint on Jan. 9 at Gulfstream, give Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott a formidable pair of contenders in Saturday's Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes, the main event of Festival Preview Day 41 Presented by Lambholm South at Tampa Bay Downs.

Nova Rags will again be ridden by leading Oldsmar jockey Samy Camacho. Mott has named Junior Alvarado to ride Candy Man Rocket. The 41st running of the mile-and-a-sixteenth race on the main track, which awards “Road to the Kentucky Derby” qualifying points to the first four finishers on a 10-4-2-1 scale, has drawn an overflow field of 13 3-year-olds, with maiden Tiz Tact Toe on the also-eligible list.

Mott may have rival trainer Todd Pletcher to beat. Pletcher, who has won a record six Sam F. Davis Stakes, will go for No. 7 with Donegal Racing's colt Millean and St. Elias Stables' Known Agenda, who finished third in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes on Dec. 5 at Aqueduct.

The Sam F. Davis, scheduled as the 11th race on a 12-race card beginning at 11:50 a.m., is one of four stakes offering an aggregate $750,000 in stakes purse money.

Saturday's 35th running of the Grade 3, $175,000 Tampa Bay Stakes, for horses 4-years-old-and-upward going a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the turf, is scheduled as the eighth race. A field of 12 older horses is expected, headed by 4-year-old gelding Sole Volante, last year's Sam F. Davis Stakes winner, and Grade 2-winning 4-year-old colt Fancy Liquor.

Sole Volante is trained by Patrick Biancone and will be ridden by Robby Albarado. Fancy Liquor is trained by Michael Maker and will have Hector Diaz, Jr., in the saddle.

The 22nd edition of the Grade 3, $175,000 Lambholm South Endeavour Stakes, for fillies and mares 4-and-upward racing a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the turf, has attracted eight entries and is scheduled as the 10th race. Heading the field are 4-year-old filly New York Girl, an Irish-bred who won her first start in the United States on Dec. 31 at Gulfstream, and Counterparty Risk, a game second in the Lady of Shamrock Stakes on Dec. 26 at Santa Anita.

New York Girl is trained by Mott and will be ridden by Junior Alvarado. Chad Brown conditions Counterparty Risk, who will be ridden by John Velazquez.

The other stakes is the 41st running of the $150,000 Suncoast Stakes for 3-year-old fillies traveling a mile-and-40-yards on the main track. The Suncoast, which lured 10 entries, is the ninth race on the card.

Among the likely contenders are Special Princess, who dead-heated for victory in the Gasparilla Stakes here on Jan. 16, and Feeling Mischief, who captured the Sandpiper Stakes here on Dec. 5 before settling for third in the Gasparilla.

Ademar Santos will ride Special Princess for trainer Walter Woodard. Jesus Castanon will be aboard Feeling Mischief for trainer Michael Campbell. Another probable contender is trainer Rodolphe Brisset's Gulf Coast, to be ridden by Julien Leparoux.

Here is the full field for the Sam F. Davis Stakes in post position order, followed by trainer and jockey:

1. Hidden Stash, Victoria Oliver, Hector Diaz, Jr. 2. Joe Man Joe, David Fisher, Huber Villa-Gomez. 3. Known Agenda, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez. 4. Millean, Todd Pletcher, Roberto Alvarado, Jr. 5. Smiley Sobotka, Dale Romans, Daniel Centeno. 6. Runway Magic, George “Rusty” Arnold, II, Julien Leparoux. 7. Boca Boy, Cheryl Winebaugh, Antonio Gallardo. 8. Nova Rags, Bill Mott, Samy Camacho. 9. Candy Man Rocket, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado. 10. Ricochet, Kelsey Danner, Jesus Castanon. 11. Lucky Law, Patrick Biancone, Robby Albarado. 12. Last Investment, Stacy Lane Hendry, Ademar Santos. 13 (also eligible, draws in if there is a late scratch): Tiz Tact Toe, Robert B. Hess, Jr., Alonso Quinonez.

Here is the full field for the Tampa Bay Stakes in post position order, followed by trainer and jockey:

1. Atone, Eoin Harty, Tomas Mejia. 2. Admission Office, Brian Lynch, Julien Leparoux. 3. Get Smokin, Thomas Bush, Julien Leparoux. 4. Talk Or Listen, Arnaud Delacour, Daniel Centeno. 5. Delaware, Chad Brown, Antonio Gallardo. 6. Proven Strategies, Mark Casse, Jose Ferrer. 7. By Your Side, Michael Maker, Jesus Castanon. 8. Eons, Arnaud Delacour, Samy Camacho. 9. Sole Volante, Patrick Biancone, Robby Albarado. 10. Fancy Liquor, Michael Maker, Hector Diaz, Jr. 11. Armistice Day, Barbara Minshall, Roberto Alvarado, Jr. 12. Greyes Creek, Chad Brown, John Velazquez.

Here is the full field for the Lambholm South Endeavour Stakes in post position order, followed by trainer and jockey:

1. Margaret's Joy, Michelle Nihei, Ronnie Allen, Jr. 2. Logic N Reason, Christophe Clement, Samy Camacho. 3. No Mercey Percy, Rafael Schistl, Ademar Santos. 4. Eres Tu (main track only), Arnaud Delacour, Samy Camacho. 5. Counterparty Risk, Chad Brown, John Velazquez. 6. New York Girl, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado. 7. Kelsey's Cross, Patrick Biancone, Robby Albarado. 8. Irony of Reality, Ron G. Potts, Huber Villa-Gomez.

Here is the full field for the Suncoast Stakes in post position order, followed by trainer and jockey:

1. Roll Up Mo Money, Ken McPeek, Samy Camacho. 2. Feeling Mischief, Michael Campbell, Jesus Castanon. 3. Jade Empress, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado. 4. Curlin's Catch, Mark Casse, Antonio Gallardo. 5. Honorifique, Eddie Kenneally, John Velazquez. 6. Scenic Overlook, Eoin Harty, Alonso Quinonez. 7. Gulf Coast, Rodolphe Brisset, Julien Leparoux. 8. Be Sneaky, Arnaud Delacour, Hector Diaz, Jr. 9. Il Malocchio, Ken McPeek, Robby Albarado. 10. Special Princess, Walter Woodard, Ademar Santos.

Due to COVID-19 restrictions, Tampa Bay Downs is limiting general-admission attendance for the Festival Preview Day 41 Presented by Lambholm South card to 2,500 spectators. Tickets, which are $10 each plus a service fee, are being sold online through Eventbrite.com and at the program stands.

Horsemen, box-seat holders and season-ticket holders do not need to purchase tickets, but must present their passes at the gate to gain admittance.

Seating will be available on a first-come, first-serve basis unless patrons have prior arrangements in the Skye Terrace Dining Room, Sports Gallery, Clubhouse Carrels or Legends Bar, but the purchase of a general-admission ticket is still required to gain admittance.

The track is also selling a limited number of tables in the Backyard Picnic Area for $50 each plus a service fee; that price includes admission for six people.

Here is the link for Festival Preview Day 41 tickets and picnic-area seating:

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/festival-preview-day-41-presented-by-lambholm-south-tickets-135338604409

Everyone will be required to wear masks or face coverings and maintain appropriate social distancing.

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