Guineas Storm Brewing In Newmarket

Saturday's G1 QIPCO 2000 Guineas asks the usual set of questions, with the Classic generation due to be examined for the first time with their raw material and any flaws about to be exposed on Newmarket's Rowley Mile which was the scene of thundery conditions on Friday afternoon. Aside from the ever-present quandary of pace positioning and ground conditions, with the latter scenario complicated by the sight of looming dense clouds on Guineas eve, there is the annual unknown of just how dominant last year's leading 2-year-olds still are. Will Auguste Rodin (Ire) (Deep Impact {Jpn}), Little Big Bear (Ire) (No Nay Never) and Chaldean (GB) (Frankel {GB}) re-establish their superiority or will it have relinquished during the winter months? How will 2022's speed merchants fare? Little Big Bear is in that bracket, as are fellow TDN Rising Stars Sakheer (Ire) (Zoffany {Ire}) and Noble Style (GB) (Kingman {GB}), all going beyond the sacred sprinting realm of the sixth furlong. We will find out only on the day and while this is a track that divides opinion as to how stiff it is, it somehow always seems to put the fast ones into the red.

 

Been There…

What is different to most 2000 Guineas of recent times, and this is probably testament to how strong a season 2022 was for the juveniles, is this is very much one for the already-proven performers with barely an unexposed type to be seen. Only four of the line-up have not contested at least two group races and, of those, the aforementioned Sakheer and Noble Style were denied a second pattern-race outing only by training setbacks. When it comes to establishing fitting credentials for this Classic, Juddmonte's Chaldean who has the combined Frankel and Frankie factor is out on his own.

Building a head of steam throughout the perfectly-aligned G1 Dewhurst S. stepping stones of the G3 Acomb S. and G2 Champagne S. over York and Doncaster's level courses, he duly conquered the undulations of this track on Future Champions Day to bring up a treble that would have been beyond a colt with less inherent quality. Yes, he would be an extremely rare Guineas winner with a “U” in his form, having lost Dettori at the start of the G3 Greenham S., but that unfortunate incident was a mere aberration and will serve only as a curious footnote if he masters his peers once again here.

If successful, one of the operation's rare purchases will be providing Andrew Balding with a second renewal in four years with only Aidan O'Brien, Sir Michael Stoute, Saeed bin Suroor and Andre Fabre having achieved that in recent times. The new face of Kingsclere is on his way to matching the kudos enjoyed by his father but of course the emphasis is on Frankie during the Italian's long goodbye tour.

Dettori, whose own father Gianfranco came and conquered here on Bolkonski (Ire) to start a new racing dynasty back in 1975, has the least-complicated tactical conundrum of all as he outlined when offering his insights as an ambassador for World Pool. “The way I see it, the fancied ones are drawn 11-13, so it's not ideal being away from them, but Chaldean is a horse who can go and run his own race,” he said. “He's got plenty of speed, so hopefully he can get away well and be right up there from the off, just like he was in the Dewhurst and the Champagne S. His form is very solid and you know exactly what you're getting with Chaldean–he's bombproof–whereas the others have a bit to prove. It's just a case of whether the others can step up to match or better what he's shown already.”

 

Bad News Bear?

Supporters of Auguste Rodin, and there are many judged by the way the betting market has moved in recent weeks, will be well-served to cast their minds back to 2002 which was the last time Aidan O'Brien ran two elite performers against each other here. Rock Of Gibraltar's defeat of Hawk Wing will live long in the memory largely due to the quality of the first two, but also because of the tactical nature of the edition with the not-unfamiliar field split playing out so dramatically on that occasion. There should be no repeat of that at least, with Little Big Bear drawn alongside his much-vaunted stablemate and fellow TDN Rising Star, but there is no guarantee that Ryan Moore's pick will be able to peg back what was one of the best 2-year-olds to have emerged since Frankel.

Despite the nature of Little Big Bear's G3 Anglesey S. and G1 Phoenix S. performances, which suggested strongly that a mile would be well within his compass, there was talk of Nunthorpes until his injury cut short his campaign much as it did the yard's comparable past juvenile overlord Fasliyev. Without the proof that runs in the Vincent O'Brien National S. or Dewhurst would have provided, it is probably not far of the mark to state that even those closest to him are not sold on what type of runner he will turn out to be.

As a benchmark of brilliance, of both the permanent and precocious variety, Little Big Bear's scintillating seven-length defeat of the G2 July S. winner Persian Force (Ire) (Mehmas {Ire}) is Guineas-winning form in practically every year, even allowing for stamina concerns. Should he use his physicality to pull away Zafonic-style in what the old school used to call “the last 2-year-old race”, nobody can be truly surprised.

Ryan Moore knows both the Rosegreen undergraduates, who he states are “the two best horses in here”, better than anybody and the man with the hardest call offered the big reveal in his Betfair blog. “Little Big Bear clearly has a lot of pace, but I personally think he will stay a mile and that makes him a very dangerous rival to all,” he said. “Auguste Rodin is an exciting prospect for the season, but hopefully for the here and now, too. But would it surprise me if Little Big Bear beat him? Not really.”

 

One Eye On The Commonwealth…

   A glance at the 2000 Guineas records of winners of the six-furlong G2 Richmond S. and G2 Mill Reef S. offers little statistical hope for Royal Scotsman (Ire) (Gleneagles {Ire}) and Sakheer and, while the former did go close in the Dewhurst, there have to be doubts as to how they will cope with a strong-run mile on easy ground. While this renewal looks set to boast an above-average Guineas winner, it is also on the cards that it could contain a Commonwealth Cup winner once the dust has settled and the various teams regroup for Royal Ascot and Epsom.

Sakheer's connections were already in the dark about the mile and, ominously, Friday's lightning storm led to a flag start to the last race. After the double-whammy of rain on already-watered ground, they are understandably anxious. “Ideally we wouldn't want too much more rain,” KHK Racing's racing manager Chris Wall said. “I was a little exasperated to see that Michael Prosser had started to water the track, which seems rather an unnecessary thing to do, given that we have had the wettest spring for 40 years but there we go. The horse couldn't be in better condition and we're looking forward to the day. He's a very talented horse, but we're not sure yet what his best trip might be.”

 

Tahiyra Faces Big 1000 Guineas Field

Dermot Weld will be one trainer not unhappy to see Friday's rain after he confirmed The Aga Khan's undefeated G1 Moyglare Stud S. heroine and TDN Rising Star Tahiyra (Ire) (Siyouni {Fr}) among a cast of 20 for Sunday's G1 QIPCO 1000 Guineas. Handed stall 15 for the feature, the half-sister to connections' luminary Tarnawa (Ire) (Shamardal) will be reopposed by the Moyglare runner-up and GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf heroine Meditate (Ire) (No Nay Never) as Ballydoyle's lone representative after another of the stable's leading lights Never Ending Story (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) is kept back for either ParisLongchamp or The Curragh.

Chris Hayes has the task of trying to provide Weld with a first 1000 Guineas and said, “She looked terribly exciting [in the Moyglare], she seems to have wintered well so I'm looking forward to it. I'm very excited, to get on any favourite in a Classic is rare, for me it's the stuff of dreams so we'll see what we can do. Obviously, like the boss has said, there's always the question if they train on from two to three, but on her home work she appears to have and she's just a pleasure. She'll never get you excited going up the gallops but she turns it on at the races.”

Alongside Never Ending Story, Juddmonte's G3 Dick Poole Fillies' S. winner Juliet Sierra (GB) (Bated Breath {GB}) was the only other not to be confirmed and Godolphin's decision to run a trio of contenders is one of many indicators that very few are running scared of the Weld filly. This is the biggest assembly since Finsceal Beo (Ire) (Mr. Greeley) mastered 20 rivals in 2007, two years before Saeed bin Suroor enjoyed his last English Classic victory. The trainer has live prospects of ending that drought with TDN Rising Star Mawj (Ire) (Exceed And Excel {Aus}), who bids to confirm the form of the Jumeirah Fillies Classic with William Buick's pick of Charlie Appleby's duo, Dream Of Love (Ire) (Shamardal).

Amo Racing's Classic dream lives on through the impressive G3 Nell Gwyn S. winner Mammas Girl (GB) (Havana Grey {GB}), who is nearest the stand's rail in 20 while on the opposite wing is Marc Chan and Andrew Rosen's G1 Cheveley Park S. heroine Lezoo (GB) (Zoustar {Aus}). She gives Ralph Beckett a strong hand along with Julian Richmond-Watson's unbeaten G3 Fred Darling S. scorer Remarquee (GB) (Kingman {GB}) in a fascinating encounter which could yet be shaped by the local storm.

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QIPCO 2000 Guineas: Where Did They Come From?

The G1 QIPCO 2000 Guineas sees a contentious field of 14 try their hands at gaining an all-important Classic next to their names. Aidan O'Brien and the Coolmore partners bring two striking colts to the fray in potential G1 Betfred Derby headliner Auguste Rodin and G1 Phoenix S. winner Little Big Bear. Juddmonte's star Chaldean is looking for redemption after dislodging retiring reinsman Frankie Dettori in the G3 Greenham S. last month. If the latter duo succeed, it would be the Italian's fourth Guineas. We took a look at the story behind each of the 14 runners for this first Classic of the British Flat season.

AUGUSTE RODIN (IRE), Deep Impact (Jpn)–Rhododendron (Ire) (Galileo {Ire})
'TDN Rising Star'
Owner: M Tabor & D Smith & Mrs J Magnier & Westerberg
Breeder: Coolmore
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien
Pedigree Notes/Form Analysis: First foal out of the top-class triple Group 1 winner Rhododendron, who achieved her top-flight successes in the Fillies' Mile, Prix de l'Opera and Lockinge S. Rhododendron is a full-sister to multiple Group 1 winner Magical and Group 3 winner Flying The Flag and is herself a daughter of Irish 1000 Guineas winner Halfway To Heaven (Ire) (Pivotal {GB}). Auguste Rodin is already proven over the trip and should get further. Deserved favourite.

CHALDEAN (GB), Frankel (GB)–Suelita (GB) (Dutch Art {GB})
Owner: Juddmonte
Breeder: Whitsbury Manor Stud
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Sales History: 550,000gns Tattersalls December foal
Pedigree Notes/Form Analysis: The sixth foal out of the unraced Dutch Art mare Suelita, who has produced high-class horses over sprint trips, including Alkumait (GB) (Showcasing {GB}), winner of the G2 Mill Reef S. and now standing at Castlefield Stud for €5,000. Slight question mark on whether he will see out the mile and, despite coming into the race off the back of a mishap in the Greenham, he brings arguably the best 2-year-old form to the table.

CHARYN (IRE), (Dark Angel {Ire})–Futoon (Ire) (Kodiac {Ire})
Owner: Nurlan Bizakov
Breeder: Grangemore Stud
Trainer: Roger Varian
Sales History: 250,000gns Tattersalls October Book 2 yearling
Pedigree Notes/Form Analysis: A full-brother to Wings Of War (Ire), a smart operator in Britain over six furlongs for Clive Cox before being sold to Hong Kong. The dam is listed-placed and a five-furlong winner who hails from a speedy family being a daughter of a winning-sister to G2 Mill Reef S. winner Galeota (Ire) (Mujadil). No match for Isaac Shelby (GB) (Night Of Thunder {Ire}) in the G3 Greenham S. and career-best needed to get involved.

DUBAI MILE (IRE), Roaring Lion–Beach Bunny (Ire) (High Chaparral {Ire})
Owner: Ahmad Al Shaikh
Breeder: Skymarc Farm
Trainer: Charlie Johnston
Sales History: €20,000 Goffs Orby yearling
Pedigree Notes/Form Analysis: The ninth foal out of notable performer Beach Bunny, a listed winner and multiple group-placed for Lady O'Reilly, including when second in the G1 Pretty Polly S. at the Curragh. Has produced two black-type performers–Naadirr (Ire) (Oasis Dream {GB}) and Beach Belle (GB) (Invincible Spirit {Ire})–as well as nine individual winners from as many runners. Tough task given he showed his best form at two when battling to G1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud glory over an extra couple of furlongs on heavy ground. May not have the pace required.

FLIGHT PLAN (GB), Night Of Thunder (Ire)–Romp (GB) (Pivotal {GB})
Owner: Clipper Logistics
Breeder: Miss K J Keir
Trainer: Karl Burke
Sales History: 150,000gns Tattersalls October Book 2 yearling
Pedigree Notes/Form Analysis: The fourth foal out of a half-sister to Group 2-winning miler Robadallo (GB) (Lope De Vega {Ire}) who has already produced a winner in Hot Affair (GB) (Ivawood {Ire}). Warmed up for this with a second-placed effort in a listed contest on the all-weather at Newcastle. Lots to find on all known form.

GALERON (IRE), Camacho (Ire)–Society Gal (Ire) (Galileo {Ire})
Owner: Teme Valley & Aura (Gas) Holdings Ltd
Breeder: Gigginstown House Stud
Trainer: Charlie Hills
Sales History: €45,000 Goffs Orby yearling
Pedigree Notes/Form Analysis: The ninth foal and half-brother to five individual winners. Dam is an unraced half-sister to Group 3 winner in America Good Mood (Ire) (Danehill Dancer (Ire). Experienced runner but plenty to find on the protagonists.

HI ROYAL (IRE), Kodiac (GB)–Majestic Roi (Street Cry {Ire})
'TDN Rising Star'
Owner: Jaber Abdullah
Breeder: Rabbah Bloodstock Limited
Trainer: Kevin Ryan
Pedigree Notes/Form Analysis: Half-brother to five winners including black-type performers over a mile and upwards Noor Al Hawa (Fr) (Makfi {GB}) and Majestic Jasmine (Ire) (New Approach {Ire}). Dam won the G1 Sun Chariot S. Unexposed with just three runs under his belt and one of the more interesting outsiders.

HOLLOWAY BOY (GB), Ulysses (Ire)–Sultry (GB) (Pivotal {GB})
Owner: Nick White & Mrs. E Burke
Breeder: Cheveley Park Stud, Ltd.
Trainer: Karl Burke
Sales History: 60,000gns Tattersalls December foal; 60,000gns Tattersalls October Book 2 yearling.
Pedigree Notes/Form Analysis: The listed winner has placed four times at group level and was third in the G1 Vertem Futurity Trophy. This is the family of G1 Cheveley Park S. heroine Gay Gallanta (Woodman) and her son, the multiple group winner and sire Byron (GB) (Green Desert). Has already found several too good over course-and-distance last autumn.

INDESTRUCTIBLE (IRE), Kodiac (GB)–Shareva (Ire) (Rip Van Winkle {Ire})
Owner: Amo Racing, Ltd.
Breeder: Tally-Ho Stud
Trainer: Karl Burke
Sales History: 55,000gns, vendor, Tattersalls October Book 2;  €150,000 Arqana Breeze-Up Sale.
Pedigree Notes/Form Analysis: Successful in the G2 Champagne S. at two, the bay is out of a half to three-time group winner Shamreen (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) and G3 Singspiel S. hero Shahroze (Ire) (Holy Roman Emperor {Ire}). Shamreen has thrown G2 Railway S. winner Shartash (Ire) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}), twice placed at the highest level. Best on the day in the G3 Greenham S. after Chaldean's ill luck, but would need to bring his absolute top effort.

LITTLE BIG BEAR (IRE), No Nay Never–Adventure Seeker (Fr) (Bering {GB})
'TDN Rising Star'
Owner: D Smith, Mrs J Mangier, M Tabor & Westerberg
Breeder: Cammas Park Stud & Summerhill
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien
Sales History: €320,000 Arqana August Yearling Sale.
Pedigree Notes/Form Analysis: A winner of the G1 Phoenix S. and G3 Anglesey S., the son of stakes winner and G3 Prix Cleopatra runner-up Adventure Seeker counts five-time Group 1 winner All Along (Fr) (Targowice) as his third dam. Not as long-winded has his stablemate, but a classy individual regardless. It will be his first time going beyond 6 1/2 furlongs.

NOBLE STYLE (GB), Kingman (GB)–Eartha Kitt (GB) (Pivotal {GB})
'TDN Rising Star'
Owner: Godolphin
Breeder: Chasemore Farm
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Sales History: 525,000gns Tattersalls October Yearling Book 1.
Pedigree Notes/Form Analysis: Out of a listed-winning half-sister to Listed Chesham S. winner Arthur Kitt (GB) (Camelot {GB}) who ran third in the G3 Solario S., the G2 Gimcrack S. victor's second dam is G2 Queen Mary S. winner Ceiling Kitty (GB) (Red Clubs {Ire}). One of the leading fancies, and could avenge his sire's runner-up finish in the 2014 edition.

ROYAL SCOTSMAN (IRE), Gleneagles (Ire)–Enrol (GB) (Pivotal {GB})
Owner: Mrs Fitri Hay
Breeder: Rabbah Bloodstock, Ltd.
Trainer: Paul & Oliver Cole
Sales History: 125,000gns Tattersalls October Yearling Book 2.
Pedigree Notes/Form Analysis: The G2 Richmond S. winner and G1 Dewhurst S. runner-up is out of a multiple stakes-placed granddaughter of the stakes-winning mare Appointed One (Danzig), herself a half-sister to G1 Futurity S. winner Bakharoff (The Minstrel). One of the better prospects, and his sire was responsible for a brace of Italian Guineas winners on the weekend.

SAKHEER (IRE), Zoffany (Ire)–Shortmile Lady (Ire) (Arcano {Ire})
'TDN Rising Star'
Owner: KHK Racing, Ltd.
Breeder: Drumlin Bloodstock
Trainer: Roger Varian
Sales History: 80,000gns Tattersalls December Foal Sale ; $65,000 RNA, Keeneland September; €550,000 Arqana Breeze-Up Sale.
Pedigree Notes/Form Analysis: Already a half-brother to multiple group/graded winner Lemista (Ire) (Raven's Pass) who ran third in the GI Beverly D. S., the G2 Mill Reef S. hero is from the same family as GI Kentucky Derby-winning filly Winning Colors (Caro {Ire}). Bolted up by six lengths at Haydock and maintained his brilliance at Newbury, but has never been beyond six furlongs.

SILVER KNOTT (GB), Lope De Vega (Ire)–God Given (Ire) (Nathaniel {Ire})
Owner: Godolphin
Breeder: St Albans Bloodstock, LLP
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Sales History: 725,000gns Tattersalls October Yearling Sale Book 1.
Pedigree Notes/Form Analysis: A dual Group 3 winner before running second in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, Silver Knott is out of Italian Group 1 winner God Given, herself a half-sister to four-time Group 1 winner-turned Darley sire Postponed (Ire) (Dubaw {Ire}). His third dam is G1 Moyglare Stud heroine Bianca Nera (GB) (Salse). Already a winner over this trip and surface and he was a whisker behind Victoria Road (Ire) (Saxon Warrior {Jpn}) at Keeneland.

 

 

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Chaldean One Of A Score Of Colts In Guineas At Latest Entry Stage

Despite losing Frankie Dettori once the gates flew in the G3 Greenham S. on Saturday, Juddmonte's Chaldean (GB) (Frankel {GB}) remains part of the G1 QIPCO 2000 Guineas field. After Tuesday's latest scratching stage, 20 colts are still entered in the first Classic of the British season on Saturday, May 6.

A winner of four of his six starts, the G1 Dewhurst S. hero is one of two in the one-mile race for Andrew Balding. Second in the Dewhurst, G2 Richmond S. scorer Royal Scotsman (Ire) (Gleneagles {Ire}) will attempt to turn the tables for Mrs. Fitri Hay and trainers Paul and Oliver Cole.

Ahmad Al Shaikh's G1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud winner Dubai Mile (Ire) (Roaring Lion) remains in the race for Charlie Johnston, as do the Godolphin/Charlie Appleby pair of G2 Gimcrack S. winner Noble Style (GB) (Kingman {GB}) and GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf runner-up Silver Knott (GB) (Lope De Vega {Ire}).

The Coolmore partners and Aidan O'Brien field a quintet led by Group 1 scorers Auguste Rodin (Ire) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) and Little Big Bear (Ire) (No Nay Never). G3 Killavullan S. hero Cairo (Ire) (Quality Road) is also signed on, as is G3 2000 Guineas Trial S. winner Hans Andersen (GB) (Frankel {GB}).

Third behind Auguste Rodin and Tuesday's Listed Weatherbys Digital Solutions Blue Riband Trial hero Epictetus (Ire) (Kingman {GB}) in the Vertem Futurity Trophy, Holloway Boy (GB) (Ulysses {Ire}) is one of three in the race for Karl Burke. Burke runner Indestructible (Ire) (Kodiac {GB}), who won the G3 Craven S. over the course-and-distance of the Guineas, will also take part. Group winners Charyn (Ire) (Dark Angel {Ire}) and Sakheer (Ire) (Zoffany {Ire}) hail from the stable of Roger Varian.

There is also still a chance of a royal runner, as the King and Queen Consort's two-for-two Slipofthepen (GB) (Night Of Thunder {Ire}) has also retained his entry for John and Thady Gosden.

In the fillies' equivalent on Sunday, May 7, 26 nominees have stood their ground, among them Group 1 winners Lezoo (GB) (Zoustar {Aus}), Meditate (Ire) (No Nay Never), and Tahiyra (Ire) (Siyouni {Fr}) for trainers Ralph Beckett, Aidan O'Brien, and Dermot Weld, respectively.

Beckett has also entered G3 Fred Darling S. heroine Remarquee (GB) (Kingman {GB}), while Hugo Palmer trains the runner-up in Stenton Glider (Ire) (Dandy Man {Ire}). Juddmonte's Juliet Siera (GB) (Bated Breath {GB}), a Group 3 winner, is also part of Beckett's Guineas challenge.

The first and second-place finishers from the G3 Nell Gwyn S. also have entries in Mammas Girl (GB) (Havana Grey {GB}) for Richard Hannon and Fairy Cross (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) for Charlie Appleby. Saeed bin Suroor's G2 Duchess Of Cambridge S. heroine and G1 Cheveley Park S. third Mawj (Ire) (Exceed And Excel {Aus}) has been entered. G2 May Hill S. heroine Polly Pott (GB) (Muhaarar {GB}) for trainer Ben Pauling is also part of the fray.

O'Brien is double-fisted in the Guineas, as his G3 1000 Guineas Trial S. victress Never Ending Story (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) defeated Kieran Cotter's Matilda Picotte (Ire) (Sioux Nation) by 2 1/2 lengths at Leopardstown earlier this month.

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Sakheer Out Of Dewhurst

TDN Rising Star Sakheer (Ire) (Zoffany {Ire}) will be forced to miss Saturday's G1 Darley Dewhurst S. at Newmarket after trainer Roger Varian revealed that the G2 Mill Reef S. winner has scoped dirty. Having been supplemented for the seven-furlong feature on Monday, KHK Racing's emerging luminary will now wait until 2023 to test his Classic credentials. “This is of course very frustrating and disappointing and I am very sorry for owners KHK Racing and everyone connected with the horse,” Varian posted on Twitter on Thursday. “He will be put away now for the season and we look forward to him returning as a three-year-old.”

Sakheer's absence means that fellow TDN Rising Star Nostrum (GB) (Kingman {GB}) takes on the mantle as favourite, with Sir Michael Stoute booking Richard Kingscote for the G3 Tattersalls S. winner. Ryan Moore, who partnered the Juddmonte homebred on his two previous starts, rides Ballydoyle's sole entry Aesop's Fables (Ire) (No Nay Never), another TDN Rising Star who looks to add to his G2 Futurity S. and provide Aidan O'Brien with a record-equalling eighth renewal. Other than Nostrum, Juddmonte have a strong hand as the Andrew Balding-trained G2 Champagne S. and G3 Acomb S. winner Chaldean (GB) (Frankel {GB}) lines up with Frankie Dettori in the saddle, while Charlie Appleby relies on the unbeaten Listed Pat Eddery S. and Listed Ascendant S. scorer Naval Power (GB) (Teofilo {Ire}).

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