rudy rodriguez | Horse Racing Free Tips

Equibase Analysis: Hagler Could Throw Knockout Punch In Jerome Stakes

Eight horses are entered in Saturday's $150,000 Jerome Stakes, which kicks off the Road to the Kentucky Derby for 2022 in New York. The rest of the series consists of the Withers Stakes on Feb. 5 and the Gotham Stakes on March 5 before culminating in the Wood Memorial Stakes on April 9.

Leading this field is a pair of recent stakes placed runners in Cooke Creek and Ohtwoohthreefive. Cooke Creek won the Rocky Run Stakes in October and was most recently second in the Grade 3 Nashua Stakes in November, while Ohtwoohthreefive missed by a nose in the Central Park Stakes on turf near the end of November and tries dirt for the first time for his seventh career start.

Mr Jefferson also enters the Jerome off a stakes try, as he was fourth of eight in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Belmont four weeks ago. Rumble Strip Ron finished second in the Best of Ohio Stakes in October which was a race restricted to horses bred in Ohio, and he enters the race off a claiming race in November so this will be a big test.

Then there are a quartet of recent winners, including Hagler, who broke his maiden in October and then bested allowance company on Dec. 16. The other recent winners, Courvoisier, Smarten Up and Unbridled Bomber, all enter the Jerome Stakes off maiden wins and will attempt to prove they belong at this level.

Top contenders:

Hagler gets a great outside post for this one-turn mile trip at Aqueduct and appears to be the type who can be on the lead or just off the pace from the start, which is an advantage in many ways. He and jockey Jorge Vargas, Jr. can wait a few strides to see if another horse wants the lead at the start, at that point taking up a stalking position, or if no other horse wants the lead Hagler can take command. The latter is exactly what he did in his most recent race on Dec. 16 at Aqueduct where he led from start to finish.

Prior to that, on Oct. 29, Hagler stayed in second for the first half-mile before drawing off to win by four and one-half lengths. Both victories came with Vargas, Jr. in the saddle, and the first of the two earned an 84 ™ Equibase Speed Figure which, if logically improved on in the colt's third start off a layoff, puts him in range of the top horse's figures in the field.

Those top figures belong to the other two main contenders: Ohtwoohthreefive (93) and Cooke Creek (89). Trainer Rudy Rodriguez has a very good 20 percent win rate when stretching a horse out in distance at Aqueduct (per Race Lens) over the last two years, with a +38 percent return on investment and a median win payoff of $13. As such, I expect Hagler to win his third race in a row and put his name squarely into the Road to the Kentucky Derby with a big effort in the Jerome Stakes.

Ohtwoohthreefive has raced exclusively on turf to date, with a record of 1-2-2 in six races. His best effort came in his most recent race on Nov. 27 in the Central Park Stakes, where he rallied to lead with an eighth of a mile to go then battled nose-and-nose down to the wire, losing by inches at the finish. Nevertheless, the 95™ figure he earned is the best by any horse in the field. Whether that type of effort is transferrable to dirt does not appear to be a question as his sire is Union Rags, himself a talented colt on dirt including a win in the 2012 Belmont Stakes. Additionally, trainer George Weaver has a creditable five-for-16 record when moving a horse from turf to dirt over the last 12 months. Jockey Kendrick Carmouche rode Ohtwoohthreefive for the first time that day and rides back in the Jerome, and if the early pace is hotly contested this colt could be the one to get up in time and win.

Cooke Creek is the only horse in the Jerome Stakes field with a stakes win, and that win came at the same mile trip as this race. He won his debut when sprinting easily in September with a 76 figure then stretched out to a mile and won the Rocky Run Stakes in October, earning an 89 figure. Trying much tougher foes in the Nashua Stakes in November, Cooke Creek was no match for winner Rockefeller when second the entire length of the stretch but he was nearly three lengths clear of the next horse, earning an 86 figure in the process. With jockey Manuel Franco riding back after getting familiar with the colt in the Nashua, Cooke Creek certainly can win this race with just slight improvement off his Rocky Run effort.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Courvoisier (85), Mr Jefferson (82), Rumble Strip Ron (77), Smarten Up (71) and Unbridled Bomber (82).

Win contenders, in preference/probability order:
Hagler
Ohtwoohthreefive
Cooke Creek

Jerome Stakes
Race 8 at Aqueduct
Saturday, Jan. 1, 2022 – Post Time 3:50 PM E.T.
One Mile
Three Year Olds
Purse: $150,000

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Sea Foam Will Try To Rebound In Friday’s Alex M. Robb Stakes

Ten Strike Racing, Four Corners Racing Stable, Broadview Stables, and Cory Moelis Racing's Sea Foam will vie for his second stakes win this year in Friday's $100,000 Alex M. Robb, a nine-furlong test for New York-breds 3-years-old and up, at Aqueduct Racetrack.

A 6-year-old son of Medaglia d'Oro, Sea Foam provided conditioner Michelle Giangiulio with her first win as a trainer when he took down the Evan Shipman at Saratoga Race Course first off the claim on Aug. 11. Leading at every point of call, Sea Foam was a dominant five-length winner in a final time of 1:50.91 for the nine furlongs.

Eighth in the Grade 3 Greenwood Cup in his next outing, Sea Foam once again set the pace in the 1½ -mile race, but lost position approaching the turn and faded to the back of the field.

“It was kind of an unfortunate race,” said Giangiulio. “We had a perfect lead and then [eventual winner Magic Michael] moved really early so we had to push him a little sooner than we needed to going a mile and a half. He didn't have enough in the tank going down the stretch and I kind of put a line through that race for him.”

Sea Foam rebounded from the Greenwood Cup with a third-place finish in the Empire Classic at Belmont last time out on Oct. 30, pushed by Mr. Buff to set a hot pace for the nine furlongs before eventual Grade 1 Cigar Mile winner Americanrevolution overtook the lead and bounded away to an open-length victory.

Sea Foam was nosed out of place-honors by longshot Wild Banker, who he will face again in the Alex M. Robb. Giangiulio said she was proud of the dark bay's determination to hit the board.

“They went 45 seconds for the half-mile and he was rocking and rolling on the lead there,” Giangiulio said. “I was surprised he even held on for third. I thought he ran a monster race that day getting pushed on the lead and then kept going. I think he ran harder in that race than in the Evan Shipman. I couldn't have asked for a better run out of him.”

A win with Sea Foam would provide Giangiulio with her fourth victory at Aqueduct this year, her current Big A record standing at 6-3-0-2. In his final prep for the Alex M. Robb, Sea Foam worked five-eighths in 1:02.45 over the dirt training track at Belmont on Friday, showing Giangiulio that he is eager to get back to the races.

“He's doing great and he's ready to run,” Giangiulio said. “He needs to get a run in him at this point. He's very fresh. He's been working five furlongs, nice and easy, nothing crazy. We just let him do his thing. He loves his job and tries his heart out when he runs. He's such a cool horse. He'll be tough to beat on Friday.”

Kendrick Carmouche will pilot Sea Foam from post 4.

Trainer Rudy Rodriguez will have two chances to secure his second Alex M. Robb victory when he sends out stakes winner Tiergan and veteran runner Danny California.

Tiergan enters the Alex M. Robb hoping to continue improving off a career-best 95 Beyer Speed Figure earned last time out when he steps back up to stakes company for the third time this year.

Co-owned by Rodriguez with Michael Imperio and Andrew Gurdon, Tiergan was last seen finishing third in a one-turn mile optional claimer on November 28 at the Big A. The grey gelding was game in defeat, finishing three-quarter lengths behind the winner and losing place honors by just a head with jockey Raul Mena up.

“He ran a very good race and Raul rode him well,” said Rodriguez. “Raul had to be aggressive with him but we are very pleased with the way he ran. It's why we are taking a chance here in this race.”

Rodriguez said the stretch out in distance will benefit Tiergan, who boasts a record of 4-2-1-0 at nine furlongs.

“The competition is coming up pretty tough, but I think he deserves a chance, especially at a mile and an eighth,” Rodriguez said. “I think that's what he wants to do. He wants a steady pace and I think he's going to be competitive.”

Tiergan's best win to date is an off-the-turf score in the nine-furlong Ashely T. Cole at Belmont in September, battling down to the wire with Three Jokers to win by a head as the biggest price in the field of three. Rodriguez said despite the short field, Tiergan gave a convincing performance.

“It was an encouraging race,” said Rodriguez. “We are always looking for good spots to run as main track only because we don't have many grass horses, so we got lucky and it worked well for us.”

Tiergan has been a consistent member of Rodriguez's barn, finishing off the board just once in his nine starts since he was claimed for $16,000 from Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott in January.

“He's a solid horse. He's a little aggressive but he's a beautiful, strong, nice looking horse. If you're not careful, he'll bite you with no regard,” Rodriguez said with a laugh.

Tiergan posted a bullet five-furlong work over Belmont's dirt training track on December 20, breezing in 1:01.80 with Mena up.

“He's been training very well since we claimed him and we're happy to have him around,” Rodriguez said. “Raul has been riding him in the mornings and I think he's a good rider. He's hungry and he tries. He doesn't get many opportunities, but I like the way he's been riding.”

Mena gets the call again from the outermost post 9.

Rodriguez will also send out stakes winning gelding Danny California in search of his second win of the year.

A 6-year-old son of Afleet Alex, Danny California enters the Alex M. Robb as the most seasoned runner in the field of nine with 43 lifetime starts and eight wins. Danny California has a pair of stakes placings and one win from 12 starts this year, his best stakes effort coming in the Commentator when he ran second to runaway winner Bankit in the one-mile test at Belmont in May.

The chestnut gelding was initially trained by Tom Morley for his first 12 starts, dabbling in the claiming ranks before being transferred to the barn of Jorge Abreu for owners West Point Thoroughbreds and Chris Larsen. Claimed by Orlando Noda just five starts later, Danny California began his journey to stakes competition, steadily making progress through allowance conditions for Noda.

With three wins and four on-the-board efforts at the allowance level, Noda decided to give Danny California his first try at stakes company, contesting the Miner's Mark at Belmont last year. With Manny Franco up, Danny California went wire-to-wire to earn his lone stakes victory by 1 3/4 lengths over graded stakes winner You're To Blame.

After off-the-board finishes in the Grade 2 Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance at Keeneland and in last year's running of the Alex M. Robb, Danny California moved back to allowance company and was claimed by Rodriguez for $40,000 out of a fourth-place effort in an optional claimer on April 16.

Now owned by Michael Dubb and Karen Murphy, Danny California has earned one win for his connections, scoring an optional claimer at Saratoga on August 7 with a stalking trip under Luis Saez.

Third next time out in the Evan Shipman at Saratoga behind Sea Foam, Danny California was most recently seen finishing seventh in the same optional claimer as Tiergan on November 28.

“I was considering a non-winners of two allowance but I let the owners decide where to go with him,” Rodriguez said. “I think he'll run well in the stakes. His best distance is a mile and an eighth and they don't have that many races at that distance for older horses. So, I think this is a good race for him.”

Danny California will break from post 2 with Jose Ortiz aboard.

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Eddie F's Racing's Chowda will attempt to close out his 4-year-old campaign with his first victory since taking the Gander at Aqueduct last year for trainer Gary Sciacca.

The New York-bred son of Emcee finished fourth behind his full-brother, Lobsta, in the Thunder Rumble division of the New York Stallion Stakes Series last time out on December 5, going seven furlongs for the first time since his 2-year-old season.

Ridden by Eric Cancel in the Thunder Rumble, Chowda was held in third after breaking sixth and tracked behind Lobsta through an opening quarter-mile in 23.10 seconds. Racing two paths from the rail down the backstretch, Chowda briefly caught up to Lobsta rounding the turn and kept to the inside before backtracking and staying on well to finish fourth.

Chowda breezed a half-mile in 49.52 over Belmont Park's dirt training track on Friday in his last drill for the Alex M. Robb. The dark bay gelding's best performance this year came in the Genesee Valley Breeders' at Finger Lakes Racetrack where he was beaten just a half-length going 1 1/16 miles.

Cancel will ride again from post 7.

Completing a salty Alex M. Robb field are three-time winner Kaz's Beach [post 1, Trevor McCarthy], Grade 2 Remsen winner Brooklyn Strong [post 3, Abner Adorno], Say Florida Sandy winner Our Last Buck [post 5, Manny Franco], Empire Classic runner-up Wild Banker [post 6, Dylan Davis], and multiple stakes winner Captain Bombastic [post 8, Jose Lezcano].

The Alex M. Robb is named for the Executive Secretary of Thoroughbred Racing in 1946 who served as the General Manager of Belmont Park in 1946 and the Director of the Thoroughbred Breeders Service Bureau in 1962. Slated as Race 7 on Friday's eight race card, post time for the Alex M. Robb will be at 3:36 p.m. Eastern with first post set for 12:50 p.m.

America's Day at the Races will present daily coverage and analysis of the winter meet at Aqueduct Racetrack on the networks of FOX Sports. For the complete broadcast schedule, visit https://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/racing/tv-schedule.

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Trinni Luck Breezes Ahead Of Staten Island, Bella Sofia Gets A Break

Ryan Racing's homebred Trinni Luck breezed five-eighths in company in a bullet :59.60 Saturday over the dirt training track at Belmont Park in Elmont, N.Y., in preparation for the seven-furlong NYSSS Staten Island for fillies and mares next Sunday at Aqueduct Racetrack in Ozone Park, N.Y.

Trainer Rudy Rodriguez said the work was designed to help the 4-year-old Trinniberg filly with the cutback in distance after making her last two starts at 1 1/16-miles at Belmont, including an open allowance win in September and an off-the-board effort in the Empire Distaff on October 30.

“She did it the right way,” Rodriguez said. “We put company on her and tried to sharpen her up a little bit. She cooled out good.”

Bred in New York by her owner, the talented bay boasts a record of 7-4-1-0 with purse earnings of $185,350.

Rodriguez said J. W. Singer's Magic Circle is training well into next Saturday's $250,000 G2 Demoiselle, a nine-furlong test for juvenile fillies which offers 10-4-2-1 Kentucky Oaks qualifying points.

The Kantharos filly, who finished a close second to Gerrymander last out in the one-mile Tempted on November 5 at Belmont, breezed five-eighths in 1:02.02 November 23 over the Belmont dirt training track.

“She's doing very good. We'll work her again next week,” Rodriguez said. “She's coming into the race good and we just have to hope she likes the two turns.”

Magic Circle was a maiden winner at first asking sprinting seven furlongs in September at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., ahead of a tiring fourth in the one-mile G1 Frizette on October 3 at Belmont.

Rodriguez said Magic Circle should appreciate the stretch out in distance.

“I'm hoping we can sit behind the speed and make a run. She's a very kind filly and you can do what you want with her,” Rodriguez said.

Rodriguez said that Michael Imperio, Vincent Scuderi, Sofia Soares, Gabrielle Farm, Mazel Stable Partners, Matthew Mercurio, Medallion Racing, Parkland Thoroughbreds, and Barry Fowler's Bella Sofia is off for a freshening ahead of a 4-year-old campaign.

The Awesome Patriot sophomore filly, who was unraced as a juvenile, went 4-for-6 in a tremendous campaign that included wins in the G1 Longines Test in August at the Spa and the G2 Gallant Bloom Handicap in September.

She completed her season with a fourth-place finish in the G1 Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint after traveling wide from the outermost post 5 under regular pilot Luis Saez.

“We didn't run our best race in California. I knew we were in trouble from the draw, but we were pleased with her year,” Rodriguez said. “We'll give her a little break and bring her back next year. We sent her to the farm and we'll give her two or three months and get ready for Belmont. Hopefully, she'll come back even better.”

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Breeders’ Cup Notes: Dr. Schivel’s Perfect Del Mar Record On Line In Sprint

SPRINT

Dr. Schivel – Dr. Schivel, the alias name of the villainous character Mr. Freeze from the iconic Batman series, was on the track in the early hours this morning, well before the break, galloping 1 1/4 miles under regular exercise rider Jorge Loza. The sophomore colt has reeled off five successive victories, the past three for trainer Mark Glatt. Glatt took over training of the horse as the result of an ownership change prior to his victory in the Del Mar Futurity.

“It's difficult to get a Grade 1 winner, then inform the owners we should stop on him. But I felt it was in the horse's best interest to give him plenty of time to develop and to get over some minor things,” Glatt said. “So far, that decision has seemed like the right one.”

Dr. Schivel, unbeaten in all three of his Del Mar starts, is the second choice in the morning line at 4-1 for the six-furlong dash.

FILLY & MARE SPRINT

Bella Sofia – Proving again the adage that horses can come from anywhere, Bella Sofia, a $20,000 purchase as a 2-year-old has won four of five career starts and is the 5-2 second choice behind champion Gamine in the $1 million Filly and Mare Sprint.

As the daughter of Awesome Patriot, who stands for $2,500, she doesn't have the pedigree pizzazz of some of the competition she will face, but she has speed and has a resume that shows she knows how to win.

Rudy Rodriquez has developed Bella Sofia for the group of nine partners. She has given Rodriguez, a New York stalwart, his first graded stakes victories in four years. Her 4 ½-length victory in the Test at Saratoga in August brought Rodriquez to tears and his eyes were wet Tuesday morning at the mention of that important 7f race for 3-year-old fillies.

From the beginning, Bella Sofia has been a challenge for Rodriguez and his staff. Since all of her races have been at Belmont and Saratoga, he brought her to California two weeks before the race to give her time to acclimate to the new surroundings.

“She's a kind of quirky filly, not nervous,” Rodriguez said. “I think she just hears everything. Every little thing that she hears she just reacts very, very fast. Most of the time you've just got to be careful with her. We were jogging around, there was the sound of hitting something with a hammer and right away she started jumping all over the place. Nobody was behind her. You've just got to be alert and that's what we try to do.”

After she won the Gallant Bloom on Sept. 26, beating older horses in a graded stake, the owner opted to supplement her to the Breeders' Cup for $100,000.

“They said we're going,” Rodriguez said. “I'm just happy to be here. I know it's a lot of money, but more people have gotten into the group on the filly. They like the game.”

Bella Sofia, who is out of Love Contract by Consolidator, was sold in July 2020 at the OBS Horses of Racing Age sale. She was part of a package of seven horses that Rodriguez said cost about $500,000. So far, she is the star of the group – and his barn, too, Rodriquez said – with $542,600 in earnings.

On May 6 at Belmont at odds of 8-1, Bella Sofia broke her maiden at 6f by 11 ¼ lengths.

“She showed that she was more than just a horse,” Rodriquez said.

DIRT MILE

Ginobili – Ginobili will be the last horse to arrive for this weekend's Breeders' Cup World Championships when the 4yo son of Munnings makes the short commute from the San Luis Rey Training Center this morning. The impressive winner of the “Win and You're In” Pat O'Brien Handicap has done all his training at the nearby facility for trainer Richard Baltas, who explained, “He's run two huge races off his conditioning there, so I don't want to change a thing. Don't call it superstition, though, it's intelligence—and experience.” He's passed all the tests so far, winning at one mile, followed by the O'Brien at seven furlongs, and is coming into this race fresh. I've always thought a lot of this horse.”

Ginobili completed his final preparations last Saturday with a five-furlong drill timed in 1:00 4/5.

Life Is Good – With four wins and a narrow second in five lifetime starts, Life Is Good is one of the highest-profile horses in the 38th Breeders' Cup. He will have an opportunity to add to his already substantial reputation Saturday as the 4-5 favorite in the Dirt Mile, which has a field of eight horses. Only Gamine, at 3-5 in the Filly and Mare Sprint, has lower odds on the morning line.

WinStar Farm and China Horse Club purchased the Into Mischief colt for $525,000 as a yearling in 2019 and sent him to Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert in California. He emerged as a top Triple Crown prospect with wins in the Sham and the San Felipe at Santa Anita Park, but went to the sidelines on March 20 with an ankle chip in his left hind leg. The chip was removed by surgery.

In June, Life Is Good was transferred to the care of trainer Todd Pletcher in New York. He returned to the races at Saratoga where his unbeaten record ended at three at the Graveyard of Favorites when he was beaten a neck in the seven-furlong Allen Jerkens Memorial on Aug 28. Life is Good answered that loss with a dominating 5 ½-length victory at odds of 1-20 in the mile Kelso Handicap Sept. 25 at Belmont Park.

“He's a super-talented horse,” Pletcher said. “He's shown that all of these races and he always breezes very impressively. He appears to be very talented and fast. Hopefully he has the ability to continue to carry that speed over a route of ground.”

Even though Life Is Good easily dispatched the competition in the four-horse Kelso, Pletcher said he and the connections did not flirt with the possibility of sending him to the 1 ¼ miles $6 million Classic.

“We've pretty much been focused on the Dirt Mile,” Pletcher said. “We just felt like, considering that he missed a good portion of the middle part of the year, that we were giving up too much recency and seasoning to be ready to fire his best shot in the Classic. We have confidence that the horse will handle more distance in the future, but we just felt like for right now the Dirt Mile is the correct spot.”

Life Is Good shipped from New York on Sunday. Pletcher said Life Is Good and his other horses have settled in well at Del Mar. He galloped Tuesday morning and Pletcher said he got over the track well.

Monday afternoon, Life Is Good drew post five in the Dirt Mile, a spot that Pletcher said was fine for him.

“He's pretty much in the middle,” Pletcher said. “We'll just play it off the break.”

Pletcher has started five horses in the Dirt Mile and has a record of 1-1-1. His winner was Liam's Map in 20 15.

Irad Ortiz Jr., who won the 2019 Dirt Mile on Spun to Run, will ride.

JUVENILE FILLIES

Ain't Easy – Unbeaten stakes winner Ain't Easy, one of the early prerace favorites for Friday's $2 million NetJets Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, will have surgery on her left ankle Wednesday after X-rays Monday showed a tiny chip. Trainer Phil D'Amato termed the procedure “a simple one, with an expected quick recovery.” Dr. Ryan Carpenter will perform the surgery.

The daughter of leading sire Into Mischief had some heat on her ankle following a gallop over the main track Monday. “She had worked on Saturday and came out of it fine, then walked on Sunday and was doing well,” D'Amato said. “It was a difficult call to make (to her owners), but we had to do the right thing for the horse.”

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