Tag: Royal Ascot tips

Plays And Lays: Who Are The Juveniles To Side With And Against At Ascot?

It never ceases to amaze how much debate the two-year-old races at Royal Ascot generate each year. A quick scan on racing Twitter over the past few days confirmed as much. 

For all the fascinating puzzles that the royal meeting will serve up this week, including whether Paddington (GB) (Siyouni {Fr}) can cope with Chaldean (GB) (Frankel {GB}) in the St James's Palace, what will reign supreme in the Prince Of Wales's or if any of the Australian sprinters can land a blow in the King's Stand S., it's the juvenile races that seem to be generating the most chatter.

TDN Europe's Brian Sheerin has taken a look at the main juvenile races to be run at Ascot and tried to decipher who to be on and who to side against this week. 

G2 Coventry S. – Tuesday

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The Coventry features a battle between TDN Rising Stars River Tiber (Ire) (Wootton Bassett {GB}) and Asadna (Ire) (Mehmas {Ire}) and it's hard to argue that the market has not got this one right. 

Favourites have a good record in the Coventry, with five of the past 12 doing the business, and River Tiber does not appear to have many chinks in his armour. 

A 10-length winner on soft ground at Navan on debut, Aidan O'Brien's charge proved just as effective on good ground when carrying a winner's penalty in a conditions event at Naas. 

The form of that race has worked out well since, with the fourth home, Supersonic Man (GB) (Bungle Inthejungle {GB}), now a 16-1 chance for the Windsor Castle after winning nicely at Tipperary last time. 

Wootton Bassett has had a couple of high-class juvenile performers, including Al Riffa (Fr) and Chindit (Ire), and River Tiber has already posted some decent figures. 

It's unoriginal but there's very little not to like about the Ballydoyle colt and he may well prove another winning favourite of the Coventry. 

Lay

Asadna put in one of the most visually impressive two-year-old performances of the season so far when streaking 12 lengths clear of his rivals on debut at Ripon but the case could be made that odds of 7-2 about him in the Coventry look skimpy. 

For all that he was mightily impressive, the form of that race has not worked out, and he obviously hadn't been showing connections that brilliance at home given he was allowed to go off a 4-1 chance on the day. 

Compared to River Tiber, who has gone on and beaten better opposition after his wide-margin debut win, the George Boughey-trained Asadna has not been tested since that emphatic Ripon success. 

Asadna could well be a freak, but River Tiber represents an altogether different test to what he faced on debut and he could be worth taking on at the prices. 

Dark horse

Bucanero Fuerte (GB) (Wootton Bassett {GB}) could be the one who is slipping in under the radar in the Coventry. 

Amo Racing may have had the runner-up in the Derby this year but the modus operandi of the operation has been to unearth classy two-year-olds, and this guy looked just that when winning the opening juvenile maiden of the year in Ireland at the Curragh. 

Not seen since then, Bucanero Fuerte will need to overcome the fact that 11 out of the past 12 Coventry runners had run within a month of Royal Ascot, but fitness shouldn't be a worry given he hails from such a professional operation. 

He's drawn beside the speedy Asadna so should get a good tow into the race. At odds of 16-1, this brother to Wooded (Ire) could represent better each-way value than the Boughey runner. 

G2 Queen Mary S. – Wednesday

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Beautiful Diamond (GB) (Twilight Son {GB}) would appear the one to be on. Karl Burke is operating at a whopping 26% strike-rate with his juveniles this term and he probably doesn't have many more exciting young fillies in his yard than this daughter of Twilight Son. 

Snapped up by Richard Brown of Blandford Bloodstock for £360,000 at the Goffs UK Breeze-Up Sale from Tradewinds Stud, Beautiful Diamond made a perfect start to her career at Nottingham. 

There was a lot to like about the performance given she won by over three lengths going away at the line without having to be asked for maximum effort. 

Hailing from a stable who won this race last year and carrying the yellow and black silks of Sheikh Rashid Dalmook Al Maktoum, which have been synonymous with Royal Ascot winners, it's hard to get away from Beautiful Diamond in the Queen Mary. 

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Like Bright Diamond, Born To Rock (Ire) (Soldier's Call {GB}) was snapped up from breeze-up sales and made an immediate impact when landing a Yarmouth maiden in good style. 

However, the form of the race has not worked out as well as one might have hoped and, given she was installed as a 10-1 chance immediately afterwards, it's hard to be too enthused by the 9-2 on offer. 

Not only have the second and third from that Yarmouth maiden disappointed on their subsequent starts but the fourth home, Mantra (Ire) (Tamayuz {GB}), who was beaten just over five lengths by Born To Rock, was then beaten by over 15 lengths by Beautiful Diamond at Nottingham.

Given Mantra had the advantage of a run under her belt, one would have thought that she ought to be getting closer to Beautiful Diamond than she did. At roughly the same prices, Beautiful Diamond would have to represent the better value. 

Dark horse

Conrad Allen is not a trainer that one would associate with Royal Ascot-winning two-year-olds and, prior to Princess Chizara (Ire) winning on debut at Brighton, the stable was 0-28 with its juveniles in the past five years. 

Admittedly, that is a small sample size, but the point stands that Princess Chizara is clearly one of the smartest juveniles the trainer has got his hands on in a very long time. 

It may only have been a Brighton maiden but there was a lot to like about how Princess Chizara  accounted for a Richard Hannon-trained 2-9 favourite to win by over four lengths at the line. 

The Cotai Glory (GB) filly was clearly well-produced by Stevie Byrne of Knockgraffon Stables at the Tattersalls Guineas Breeze-Up Sale, where she was knocked down to Allen for 65,000gns after recording one of the fastest times. 

What she lacks for in size, Princess Chizara more than makes up for in ability, and she could well out-run her 33-1 odds in what looks a deep race. 

G2 Norfolk S. – Thursday

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Elite Status (GB) (Havana Grey {GB}) looked the real deal when landing a listed contest at Sandown last month and is another high-class juvenile that Karl Burke can look forward to running at the royal meeting. 

Unbeaten in both of his starts to date, Elite Status was described as a 'potential superstar sprinter' by his trainer after Sandown and it was easy to see why given he has such an honest and natural way of galloping. 

Of all the juvenile favourites running this week, Elite Status probably has the most rock-solid credentials, and he looks the one to be on in the Norfolk. 

Lay

In a normal year, American Rascal (Curlin) may well have been expected to go off favourite but the presence of Elite Status in the race means that will be unlikely. 

It's also worth noting that Wesley Ward's runners tend to be over-bet at this meeting, for all that he has enjoyed colossal success down through the years.

American Rascal looked very good when winning on debut at Keeneland but he'll need to be up there with the best of what Ward has targeted at this meeting with to give Elite Status something to think about. 

Dark horse

This is not just about the top two in the betting as Donnacha O'Brien's Devious (GB) (Starspangledbanner {Aus}) needs to be respected. 

He showed natural speed and talent when landing the odds on debut over the minimum trip at Naas where he looked a bona fide Norfolk horse and earned a TDN Rising Star in the process. He's smart.

Others to note

It is interesting that Donnacha O'Brien has secured Frankie Dettori to ride Porta Fortuna (Ire) (Caravaggio) in Friday's G3 Albany S. She looked good when winning a five-furlong Curragh maiden on debut and was even better when winning a Group 3 at Naas over a furlong further last month. She's clearly a filly on the up and could well go off shorter than the 8-1 that is available now. 

There are no entries for Saturday's Chesham S. but, if Pink Satin (GB) turns up, which was reported to be the plan after she won on debut at Windsor, she would have to be respected. There was plenty of each-way support around for Pink Satin at Windsor and she put a well-regarded filly to the sword to win going away by just over a length in the finish. 

She will have a relatively quick turnaround to overcome, given that debut win came just last Monday, but Paul and Oliver Cole didn't appear to be too worried about that in the winner's enclosure at Windsor. 

She looks to be another strapping daughter of Churchill (Ire) and, given it is not too uncommon for fillies to pop up in the Chesham every now and again [Maybe (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) in 2011 and September (Ire) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) in 2017], she could be one to keep on side. 

 

The post Plays And Lays: Who Are The Juveniles To Side With And Against At Ascot? appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Paddy Kehoe: ‘I’ve Backed Princess Zoe to win €50,000 – I got the Value’

He didn't crack the code to the Irish Lottery, have his colours carried by the record-breaking Grabel (GB) (Bold Owl {GB}), invest eye-watering sums in the stock market and battle with the bookmakers on an almost daily basis by being short of an opinion or two. 

Now, Paddy Kehoe is preparing to back his latest theory that his pride and joy Princess Zoe (Ger) (Jukebox Jury {Ire}) can land the G1 Ascot Gold Cup on Thursday and, if correct, the 75-year-old businessman and renowned racehorse owner will net himself a cool €50,000 to go on top of the winner's cheque for the £500,000 Thursday showpiece. 

“This mare is going to win,” says a confident Keogh, as he sips through his fourth pot of tea in Dublin's Burlington Hotel on Sunday morning. 

“She has the form in the book. Tell me another horse in the race with better form than Zoe? Stradivarius (Ire) (Sea The Stars {Ire}) was a brilliant horse but he's gone. One of my biggest bets of the week will be on Zoe to beat Stradivarius in a match bet and I could get odds of 2-1 on that. I'll definitely get 6-4. 

“That is an absolute house job. If we can't beat Stradivarius we may as well give up. If he is to win the Gold Cup this year, he'll want to start on Wednesday.

“He was a great horse, it's not like he hasn't done it, because he has, but he's an 8-year-old now and we beat him easily last year. 

“That's despite the fact that we were blocked in our run. Joey [Sheridan, jockey] was too far back because he was watching Stradivarius even though I told him that he wasn't the one to be worrying about. 

“If we rode our own race last year, we'd have won the Gold Cup, and I think we're bringing a better mare to Ascot this year. Where is Stradivarius going to find the improvement to beat us? I can't see it.”

This may sound like pub talk but, then again, so, too, is the idea of devising a plan to win the lotto. But that's exactly what Kehoe, along with mathematical genius Stefan Klincewicz, did back in 1992 when they beat the system and landed the most audacious gambling coup in Irish history, changing the way the National Lottery is run as a result.

“There was every sort of obstacle put in our way,” he says, almost tired of telling the story. “I remember driving out the South Circular Road and the Gardai, the people from the Lotto and the press were all following me. It was world news at the time.”

He added, “One of the lads was on holiday and he picked up a newspaper in Spain and who was on the front of it? Me! He phoned home to Jamesie O'Donnell [another friend] and said, 'what's Kehoe after doing now?' That was a couple of years after Grabel won the richest jumps race ever run in America. It was mad stuff altogether.”

That Irish lotto coup will go down as one of Kehoe's greatest payouts and, the man who understands odds more than most, is all too aware that there is more than just probability to overcome at Ascot next week. 

Having said that, the County Wexford native is confident that his trainer Tony Mullins, who was in the plate aboard Grabel on that fateful day in Kentucky back in 1990, has Princess Zoe in even better shape than 12 months ago, when the mare finished a gallant second to Subjectivist (GB) (Teofilo {Ire}). 

“I've a lot of money on her,” he says. “I have her backed to win €50,000. We've backed her each-way at 16-1, 12-1 and I'd another €500 each-way on her the other day at 12-1 when she should have been 8-1. We have the value and we have the horse, the jockey and the trainer. If she wins, great, but if she doesn't, it won't be the first time it's happened and I'll put it down to bad luck. I know in my heart and soul that she's a better mare this year so we're confident.”

Kehoe added, “You have to give Trueshan (Fr) (Planteur {Ire}) the respect that he deserves but it doesn't look like he's going to run now because of the ground. What does that leave as favourite? Kyprios (Ire) (Galileo {Ire})? And what has he beaten? 

“He beat Search For a Song (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) at Navan and she has been well-beaten since. Fair enough, he won again at Leopardstown [the G3 Saval Beg Levmoss S.] but that was an egg-and-spoon race because he started as a 1-10 favourite which tells you what he had to beat. 

“Kyprios hasn't won beyond 1m6f either so he's not certain to get the trip. For my money, the Gold Cup is a two-horse race between Zoe and Scope (Ire) (Teofilo {Ire}), the horse who won the G1 Prix Royal-Oak last year, and now I see that he's a doubt to run because of the ground as well.”

Kehoe likes a bet as much as he does a pint of Smithwick's, hates referees as much as he does jockeys, has never married and never intends to either. It's an all-singing, all-dancing operation, which begs the question, where does he find the time to fund the whole thing?

“I get up at four every morning, five at the latest-when I'm not drinking-to price jobs so that I'd have it all done. You'd be finished your work at 10 or 11 o'clock in the morning and you'd have it all done. I could never sleep. The way I look at it is, when you get to 75 years of age, every minute of the day that you're alive is a bonus. What the f*** would you be lying in the bed for?”

Kehoe makes no secret about the fact that he's fond of a good night out-and when Wexford won the All-Ireland in 1996, rumour has it there were several-but he also runs a hugely successful business that specialises in suspended ceilings, travels to race meetings and sporting events all over the world, which goes some way in explaining why sleep falls falls down the pecking order in his list of priorities. 

“A fella was slagging one day, telling me that I can remember everything that is said on a night out, and I told him I can remember the day I was born!”

It's at this point where Kehoe's phone lights up for the seventh or eighth time within the space of an hour, each number different to the last, none of which have been saved under a name. No need.

“I don't bother saving them. I know every number in there, I'd have them all in my head. I'm not big on computers. Never was. Sure my mother [Ina] is 96 years of age and she can tell me everything that's going on. I was talking to her this morning and she was talking about tennis, the results from the soccer matches, everything.

“The first thing I do every morning is check the stock markets and switch back over to Sky News to see what's happening in Ukraine. My mother would have all the sports news and everything for me. She's even booked in for the Galway races again this year.” 

It's at Galway where Princess Zoe shot to prominence, winning two premier handicaps at the summer festival before returning to Ballybrit later in 2020 to win the Listed Oyster S. and she has since confirmed herself as one of the most talented stayers in the business. 

Princess Zoe has netted Kehoe €238,500 in career earnings, not bad for a mare who cost just €39,500, but he doesn't subscribe to being labelled lucky to be associated with such a money-spinner.

“If I didn't have bad luck I'd have no luck,” he says, only half-joking. “Take Antarctic Bay as an example. He won the SunAlliance in 1985 and was favourite for the following year's Gold Cup. He never set foot on the track again after his Cheltenham win. Abbey Glen (GB) (Furry Glen {GB}) was beaten a neck in the Arkle, went for the Irish Grand National and pulls up entering the straight after breaking down. He was also favourite for the following year's Gold Cup. Two ante-post favourites for the Gold Cup. Both gone. And people tell me I'm lucky? Stop.”

A night on the town with camp Kehoe is not for the faint-hearted. It may be easier to predict the lotto numbers than to forecast the outcome of Thursday's race but the greatest certainty of them all is that the travelling contingent of Irishmen and women will make the most of the occasion.

“There'll be 15 or 16 of us heading over to Ascot and we'll be back in Cassidy's Pub in Dublin by 11.30pm on Thursday night. There's lads coming over from Paris, New York-all over the place-and they all believe that she will win. 

“I've told them not to be disappointed if we're beaten because we'll drink as much if she loses as we will if she wins. It won't make any difference.”

The money is secondary. 

The post Paddy Kehoe: ‘I’ve Backed Princess Zoe to win €50,000 – I got the Value’ appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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