Rocket Can | Horse Racing Free Tips

The TDN Derby Top 12: Forte Crowns Himself The New Kingpin

A trio of graded stakes preps in Florida, California and New York yielded a reshuffled deck this past weekend as we edge within the two-month mark for the May 6 GI Kentucky Derby.

1) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable & St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 6-5-0-0, $1,833,230. Last start: Won GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Park Mar. 4. KY Derby Points: 90.

'TDN Rising Star' and juvenile champ Forte muscles into the top spot for the first time based on his overall, six-race body of work as much as the powerhouse performance he delivered when romping in his first sophomore start, the GII Fountain of Youth S.

If you liked his athletic, win-from-any-spot tactics and head-of-the-stretch blast-offs at age two, you had to love the way this son of Violence prowled around the short-stretch 1 1/16-mile configuration on Saturday, giving the impression he had the field at his mercy the entire trip while never being over-ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.

From a numbers perspective, Forte's 98 Beyer Speed Figure does represent a two-point regression from the 100 he earned when winning the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile four months ago. But the visual image of this colt soaring home while geared down and never fully extended should trump any by-the-numbers concerns about whether he's moved forward since November.

Trainer Todd Pletcher had stated before the start of 2023 that Forte would likely take a two-prep path to Louisville, with the second race being either the GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream or the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland. Forte is now undefeated over both of those surfaces, lending an additional edge, although trainer Todd Pletcher told Daily Racing Form on Sunday that he is leaning toward the Florida Derby as his preference.

2) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $544,275 Last start: 1st GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Park, Jan. 28. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight is one of three horses ranked within the Top 12 to have only two starts by the first week in March. But unlike the other two colts ranked deeper down the list, his whopping auction price ($2.3 million OBSAPR sales topper after initially selling for $250,000 at KEESEP), two scintillating wins and outsized public expectations will put quite a bit more pressure on him to win the Derby off a schedule that trainer Tim Yakteen said will only include one more prep.

The race spacing will be additionally unconventional, because if Arabian Knight starts next in either the GI Santa Anita Derby or the GI Arkansas Derby as expected, that will leave him with a base of just three lifetime races spread relatively far apart (November, January, April) before attempting 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May.

The question will come down to whether his raw talent can overcome what looks like a very narrow foundation. But right now, if you lined up the dozen horses on this list in the gate, you wouldn't get much argument against Arabian Knight being the “speed of the speed.” And considering that speed-centric horses who raced either on the front end or just off it have won eight of the last nine Derbies, that trend tilts the tactical advantage in this colt's favor.

After unseasonably wet weather delayed Arabian Knight's training for more than 2 1/2 weeks, he was back on the Santa Anita work tab Saturday for the first time since Feb. 13, with a five-eighths move clocked in :59.20 (3/71).

3) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GP Allowance/Optional Claiming, Feb, 4. KY Derby Points: 0

'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice looms as the legit favorite when entries get drawn on Wednesday for Saturday's GIII Tampa Bay Derby.

This $1.3 million KEESEP son of Tapit brings an upward- trending 73-87-92 Beyer progression into his first two-turn try after eye-catching wins in two of three one-turn-miles at Aqueduct and Gulfstream. But he'll have to come off Lasix (used once, in his most recent Feb 4. Start) as he ventures into stakes company for the first time.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Tampa Derby five times, and it's also of note that despite having two horses ranked on this list who have already won over the Tampa surface this meet (Nos. 10 and 11), he is instead aiming them both for the GII Louisiana Derby in deference to sending Tapit Trice to Tampa.

Luis Saez, who has ridden Tapit Trice only once–in the colt's most recent start–will be aboard. To keep the mount, Saez had to make the difficult decision to vacate the same-day call this coming Saturday aboard the returning GI Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Oath (Arrogate) in Oaklawn's GII Azeri S., a filly he has ridden in her last six races.

4) PRACTICAL MOVE (c, Practical Joke–Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex) O-Pierre Amestoy Jr, Leslie Amestoy & Roger K Beasley; B-Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $90,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 6-3-1-2, $434,200. Last start: Won GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby points: 60

Practical Move ($90,000 RNA KEESEP; $230,000 OBSAPR) executed the biggest leapfrog of the season by emphatically winning Saturday's GII San Felipe S., going from unranked to No. 4 on this list.

Have to admit I wasn't initially wowed by his 10-1 win in the Dec. 17 GII Los Alamitos Futurity (88 Beyer) because that race gave off an aberrational vibe–the 2-5 favorite abruptly dropped back and finished last after an ideal stalking trip, and this son of Practical Joke scooted up the inside to pass a drifting, tiring pacemaker. But three months later, we saw a sturdier, more confident colt who looked dialed in the entire trip.

After minor brushing and bumping leaving the gate, jockey Ramon Vazquez carved out a sweet stalking spot, and Practical Move was unbothered by a rank horse to his outside on the first turn before responding to a rating hold, biding his time behind legit splits. He edged up incrementally to jointly attain second, but on the far bend, Practical Move was briefly hemmed in with nowhere to go at the fence and he lost momentum for several strides, regressing to fourth.

Vazquez remained patient and committed to his spot, and when the tired pacemaker drifted out to the four path at the quarter pole, Practical Move quickened on cue to win by 2 1/2 lengths with another inside stretch run (100 Beyer). This one, though, looked stronger and better composed than his previous winning move.

There have been 15 Derby qualifying stakes at 1 1/16 miles on dirt so far in 2022-23. Practical Move now owns the two fastest clockings–1:41.65 in the Los Al Futurity and 1:42.10 in the San Felipe.

5) GEAUX ROCKET RIDE (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Beyond Grace, by Uncle Mo) O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-OXO Equine LLC (Ky); T-Richard Mandella. Sales history: $350,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $120,200. Last Start: Second in the GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 20

Geaux Rocket Ride broke running and hounded the pacemaker through brisk fractions nearly every step of the trip in the San Felipe S. on Saturday. Despite having to shift inward and off the heels of tiring leaders at the head of the homestretch, this $350,000 FTKJUL son of Candy Ride (Arg) still finished resolutely at the rail to end up 2 1/2 lengths behind winner Practical Move and 1 1/4 lengths ahead of the third-place horse.

He was credited with a 96 Beyer for his stakes and two-turn debut, four points higher than his blitzing MSW win over six furlongs back on Jan. 29.

Trainer Richard Mandella told Daily Racing Form on Sunday that the Santa Anita Derby is likely next. “On the path we're talking [about], everything would have to be perfect, but he's a pretty good horse,” the understated Hall-of-Fame conditioner said.

6) ROCKET CAN (c, Into Mischief–Tension, by Tapit) O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc.; B-Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales history: $245,000 RNA Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 6-2-2-0, $326,538. Last Start: Second GII Fountain of Youth S. Mar. 4. KY Derby Points: 40

This Into Mischief gray ($245,000 FTSAUG RNA) broke fluidly from post seven in the Fountain of Youth S., conceded the lead, then was a close-up fourth while three wide into the clubhouse turn. He methodically kept advancing his position while tucked between rivals on the backstretch, then was second out from the rail when the field fanned out four across the track at the top of the stretch.

Rocket Can got a touch tired but never stopped grinding away, and although no one in that stakes was in the same league as the winner, Forte, this colt landed second while upping his GIII Holy Bull S. winning Beyer by nine points, from 82 to 91.

“It was a good trip. I ended up where I wanted to be,” said jockey Junior Alvarado. “The only thing was on the backside we were putting a little bit of pressure. From [:24.05] the first part we had to speed it up to [:23.60] the second quarter. Normally we do that the other way around, but he was there.

“Every time I ride him, he's a different horse in the post parade, a different dimension. We're trying to figure it out. I just think he hasn't matured yet. He comes here and he's very playful. I don't think he's put it all together. I take that as a good thing. Hopefully when he puts it together we can gain a few more lengths,” Alvarado said.

7) RED ROUTE ONE (c, Gun Runner–Red House, by Tapit) O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GISP, 7-1-2-1, $492,575. Last Start: 2nd in Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. Kentucky Derby Points: 33.

Red Route One still has to work on his lead-changing skills and he drops frighteningly far back off the pace. He's also never won on dirt. But you can see flashes that this still-learning chestnut “gets it” based on his last two races, which were runner-up efforts behind the Nos. 1 and 9 horses on this list in January and February stakes on the Oaklawn prep path.

With seven starts, experience over varied types of wet and dry footing, and a fairly obvious “longer-the-better” development arc, trainer Steve Asmussen said after the GII Rebel S. that Red Route One might try the 1 3/16-mile GII Louisiana Derby in his next race.

A Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred by Gun Runner out of a full-sister to Untapable, he's already racked up enough points to be seventh on the qualifying list. So long as he keeps coming close in major stakes, Red Route One wouldn't even have to win a sophomore prep to emerge as a plausible long shot in Louisville.

Like any deep closer, he'd be at the mercy of the pace and the luck of the trip. But it's not too hard to envision this colt getting completely ignored in the Derby betting, building momentum from far back, and storming down the Churchill Downs stretch with abandon at something like 40-1.

8) INSTANT COFFEE (c, Bolt d'Oro–Follow No One, by Uncle Mo) O-Gold Square LLC; B-Sagamore Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $200,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-3-0-0, $442,815. Last Start: Won Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds. Kentucky Derby Points: 33.

Instant Coffee has put together a commendable four-race progression that includes a win sprinting seven furlongs at Saratoga first time out at 14-1 odds, plus two scores over 1 1/16 miles in which he's taken the overland route from far back to win as the favorite in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. and the GIII Lecomte S.

Nestled in between his maiden victory and those stakes tallies is a fourth-place try in the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S. that shouldn't be overlooked, because that Keeneland stakes was the deepest, most productive 2-year-old race from last autumn (five next-out winners, including four in stakes).

This son of Bolt d'Oro ($200,000 KEESEP) will next target the Louisiana Derby, and you'd think the long Fair Grounds stretch would benefit his off-the-tailgate style.

But just two preps at age three? From 2017 through 2022, horses with only two sophomore starts prior to the Kentucky Derby are a collective 0-for-34. However, that two-at-three template worked much better over the previous decade, producing eight Derby winners between 2007 and 2016.

9) CONFIDENCE GAME (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Eblouissante, by Bernardini) O-Don't Tell My Wife Stables; B-Summer Wind Equine, LLC (Ky); T-J K Desormeaux. Sales history: $25,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-1-2, $785,525. Last Start: Won Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 57.

What a great story line it'll be if an unheralded colt with a royal pedigree makes it into the gate for the Derby. Confidence Game, the 18-1 upsetter of the Rebel S., cost just $25,000 as a late-sale KEESEP bargain despite his dam, Eblouissante (Bernardini), being 'TDN Rising Star' half-sister to Hall-of-Famer Zenyatta (Street Cry {Ire}).

Beyond the underdog appeal, let's not forget that blue-collar steals been very real Derby threats in recent years. Three of the last four horses to cross the finish wire first in the Derby were sold (or offered for sale) comparatively cheap: the DQ'd Maximum Security in 2019 (ran for a $16,000 maiden-claiming tag); the DQ'd-but-under-appeal Medina Spirit in 2021 (sold for $1,000 and then $35,000 at auction), and Rich Strike in 2022 (claimed for $30,000 at age two).

This efficient-striding son of Candy Ride (Arg) capitalized off an ideal speed setup for his 94-Beyer Oaklawn victory, and you can expect handicappers will hold that against him next time out. They will argue that Confidence Game had everything his own way, pace-wise, then benefitted from taking a wide path to victory while the inside contenders were mired in a muddy traffic jam.

Those skeptics just might be right. But this is what overachievers do–they exceed expectations when odds are stacked against them. I wouldn't be surprised if Confidence Game has another big race in him yet.

10) KINGSBARNS (c, Uncle Mo–Lady Tapit, by Tapit) O-Spendthrift Farm LLC; B-Parks Investment Group LLC (Ky); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 FTSAUG; $800,000 2yo '22 FTFMAR. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $57,300. Last start: Won allowance/optional claimer at Tampa Feb. 12. KY Derby points: 0

Kingsbarns ($250,000 FTSAUG; $800,000 FTFMAR) energetically tracked a hot pace in his one-turn-mile debut at Gulfstream Jan. 14 as the 3-1 favorite. This son of Uncle Mo was “on hold” but not bothered by being covered up at the rail in tight quarters on the turn, then got boxed and blocked even worse at the top of the stretch before punching through with a professional late run that resulted in a 1 3/4-length victory (74 Beyer).

Next time out on Feb. 12, trainer Todd Pletcher spotted him in a mile and 40 yards first-level allowance at Tampa, and Kingsbarns conceded a long lead to an intemperate 37-1 shot who quickly backpedaled through the pack. Kingsbarns dispatched him with ease and fended off all comers to draw away by 7 3/4 easy lengths (85 Beyer).

This colt doesn't have a flashy way of going and his speed numbers aren't eye-popping. But he has a level-headed, adaptable approach and a measure of confidence that should aid his chances as the competition toughens and the distances increase. The Louisiana Derby is next.

11) LITIGATE (c, Blame–Salsa Diavola, by Mineshaft) O-Centennial Farms; B-Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent (Ky); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $370,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $182,590. Last Start: Won Feb. 11 GIII Sam F. Davis S. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

Litigate's 1 1/4-length win in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa looks slow based on his 77 Beyer and :7.05 final sixteenth, but those numbers don't reflect that the race was run under sudden downpour conditions even though the track remained rated “fast” for the Equibase chart.

This $370,000 KEESEP colt by Blame broke well but Luis Saez opted not to engage the leaders through a :46.94 half-mile. Litigate had good far-turn punch, but did require aggressive handling through the lane to sustain his bid ahead of two longshot closers.

Next up is the Louisiana Derby.

12) SLIP MAHONEY (c, Arrogate–Got Lucky, by A.P. Indy) O-Gold Square LLC; B-Hill 'n' Dale Equine Holdings Inc & Philip J Steinberg (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $150,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 4-1-2-0, $126,100. Last Start: Second in the GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby points: 20

Slip Mahoney was slow from the gate in the one-turn-mile GIII Gotham S., had to be ridden cautiously to steer clear of a loose horse, dropped far behind through a quick :45.53 half-mile, then unwound with a prolonged far-turn bid.

But this $150,000 KEESEP gray still had only one horse beaten at the top of the stretch in a field of 14. Fanned way out wide in the 11 path, he dug in under Trevor McCarthy, uncorking a furious late rally that earned second under the wire behind a 7 1/2-length, 23-1 upsetter Raise Cain (Violence).

Trainer Brad Cox said he “never expected him to be that far back” and that “hopefully he gets a little better trip and a little better position” when he goes next in the GII Wood Memorial Apr. 8.

The added furlong should suit this colt, with stout A.P. Indy and Seattle Slew influences anchoring the bottom of his pedigree. His dam, Got Lucky, was a six-time victress with all of her wins at a mile or longer, the most prominent being a nine-furlong score in the 2015 GI Juddmonte Spinster S. at Keeneland.

Owner Al Gold's stable, Gold Square Racing, now has two contenders with the Top 12, as New York-stabled Slip Mahoney joins the New Orleans-based Instant Coffee.

The post The TDN Derby Top 12: Forte Crowns Himself The New Kingpin appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Derby Top 12 For Mar. 2: Will March Separate Lions From Lambs

The first Saturday in May is the ultimate goal on the GI Kentucky Derby trail. But the first Saturday in March is often a make-or-break day on the national calendar, with key stakes in Florida, California and New York providing an uptick in intensity.

1) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $544.275 Last start: 1st GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Park, Jan. 28. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight is the kingpin colt among the sophomores who switched out of trainer Bob Baffert's barn over the past week and into the care of Baffert's former assistant from two decades ago, Tim Yakteen. The transition was necessitated by a Churchill Downs ban on Baffert trainees that prohibits them from accruing qualifying points or racing in the Derby while under Baffert's control.

Top-ranked on this list since the outset of the season, this intimidatingly speedy, sales-topping son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 KEESEP, $2.3 million OBSAPR) is being aimed for either the GI Arkansas Derby Apr. 1 or the GI Santa Anita Derby one week later.

Staying home at Santa Anita means being able to race out of his own stall there. But shipping hasn't adversely affected either of his on-the-road wins, and Arabian Knight showed he can absolutely devour a wet Oaklawn racetrack if that condition arises again.

That last victory was a thorough shellacking of an overmatched field in the GIII Southwest S. in Hot Springs Jan. 28, in which Arabian Knight earned a 96 Beyer Speed Figure while dominating the tempo and not being throttled for maximum output.

Arabian Knight has only had one published workout since that win, a three-furlong move at Santa Anita back on Feb. 13, though there have been no recorded breezes of any variety since Feb. 23 owing to a rare winter storm.

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $1,595,150. Last start: 1st GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

Divisional champ Forte ($80,000 KEENOV; $110,000 KEESEP) will have a figurative target on his back in Saturday's GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream. It's his 2023 debut off a four-month layoff, and he drew post four as the 7-5 morning line favorite.

Somewhat surprisingly, this 'TDN Rising Star' by Violence didn't go off favored in any of the three Grade I victories that closed out his juvenile campaign, although he was the chalk in both his May 27 debut win at Belmont (7 3/4 lengths) and in start number two, a fourth-place try in the GII Sanford S. at Saratoga.

Yet this colt's trio of Grade I wins in the Hopeful S., Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S., and Breeders' Cup Juvenile each revealed new tactical dimensions, and Forte's knack of being able to essentially pick his own positioning before reliably firing a big shot off the far turn is a skill that a number of his competitors still haven't mastered. Watching the leggy, athletic Forte target and reel in horses without flinching from stretch fights whets the appetite for what he might be able to deliver on a two-prep path to Louisville.

But longer-term statistical trends could be stumbling blocks: as for this Saturday, be aware that favorites have lost 12 of the last 16 editions of the Fountain of Youth. Widening the lens to take in 38 years of Breeders' Cup history, only two colts (Nyquist and Street Sense) have parlayed wins in the Juvenile into a blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May.

'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice is headed for the Mar. 11 GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby for start number four.

His Nov. 6 debut at Aqueduct was a better-than-it-looks learning experience based on his fast-closing third. This colt's Dec. 17 MSW win, also at Aqueduct, rated as an eye-opener because of his unfazed attitude after brushing, bumping and running down a rival in a deep-stretch mud fight. But it was the over-the-top nature of Tapit Trice's gaudy, eight-length allowance pummeling at Gulfstream on Feb. 4 (92 Beyer) that stamped his Kentucky Derby aspirations as realistic and achievable.

This $1.3-million KEESEP son of Tapit still needs to hone his early-race skills by overcoming lackadaisical breaks from the gate. But as the distances increase and he gains experience against larger fields, those are the types of developmental concerns that seasoning can melt away like the spring thaw.

This year, the Tampa Bay Derby has been downgraded from Grade II to III. Part of that demotion had to do with the race's recent trend of well-meant favorites being no-shows while the long-shot winners went on to be low-impact factors in subsequent stakes.

Although the 4-5 choice Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway) won Tampa's big race last year, the previous four Tampa Derbies were won by harder-to-figure horses at odds of 15-1, 49-1, 8-1 and 19-1.

4) ROCKET CAN (c, Into Mischief–Tension, by Tapit) O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc.; B-Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales history: $245,000 RNA Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $249,738. Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S., Feb. 4. KY Derby Points: 20

As the co-fourth choice on the morning line for Saturday's Fountain of Youth S., Rocket Can isn't facing the same scrutiny or pressure as race favorite and divisional champ Forte. But this Into Mischief gray ($245,000 FTSAUG RNA) will still be under the gun to prove his GIII Holy Bull S. score was no fluke, and he needs to shrug off the stigma of having relatively low speed figures compared to other top Derby hopefuls.

Rocket Can has plateaued with 82 Beyers in his last two starts on Nov. 26 and Feb. 4. But as discussed in previous editions of this list, his efforts rate considerably higher from a “how he did it” visual perspective. He gave up ground on both turns of the Holy Bull while always within three lengths of the leaders, and when he commandeered the lead off the final turn of that short-stretch configuration, Rocket Can finished focused through the lane while chased home by a tenacious stablemate.

Over the same 1 1/16-mile setup that starts close to the first turn and ends at the sixteenth pole, look for jockey Junior Alvarado to try and execute a follow-the-favorite strategy on Saturday, a tactic that should be a smooth fit for this colt's capable stalking style.

5) CAVE ROCK (c, Arrogate–Georgie's Angel, by Bellamy Road) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman; B-Anne and Ronnie Sheffer Racing LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $210,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $550,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 4-3-1-0, $748,000. Last start: 2nd GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 0

'TDN Rising Star' Cave Rock, who races with his head slung low in a style that evokes his sire still merits a strong foothold within the Top 12 despite the certainty that he'll be the last colt on this list to make his first sophomore start.

Powerful and promising at age two, this physically imposing dual sales grad ($210,000 KEENOV; $550,000 KEESEP) detonated a 104 Beyer in his two-turn debut, the GI American Pharoah S., while never being fully extended.

But in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he got hot and bothered pre-race, then had trouble settling when trying to clear an irrationally exuberant 70-1 shot through a :22.90 opening quarter. Cave Rock seized the lead a half-mile from home, but Forte had far more in the tank while Cave Rock languished too long on his left lead in the stretch.

Still, the second-place effort was commendable given those less-than-optimal circumstances, and Cave Rock looms as a front-end force when he finally hits the entries.

6) FAUSTIN (c, Curlin–Hard Not to Like, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael L Petersen; B-DATTT Farm (Ky); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $285,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $800,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSP, 2-1-1-0, $80,200. Last start: 2nd GIII San Vicente S., Jan. 29. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Faustin ($285,000 RNA KEESEP; $800,000 OBSAPR) was christened a 'TDN Rising Star' upon debut back on opening day at Santa Anita, overcoming multiple examples of trip adversity (some of it self-inflicted) to win first time out.

In start number two, he ran a credible second despite being tactically disadvantaged behind a one-turn-specialist stablemate Havnameltdown (Uncaptured) in the GII San Vicente S. going seven furlongs. The latter returned to just miss in last weekend's G3 Saudi Derby Cup over a stamina-stretching mile.

Additional ground along the Derby trail (next start not yet disclosed) should aid Faustin's development arc, because 10 furlongs is well within the scope of his pedigree. His damsire and sire, Hard Spun and Curlin, finished second and third, respectively, in the 2007 Kentucky Derby. Half a year later, Curlin and Hard Spun ran one-two in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic.

7) HEJAZI (c, Bernardini–G Note, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc.; B-Mary & Chester Broman (Ky); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $3,550,000 2yo '22 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-1-2-1, $108,200. Last Start: 1st SA Maiden Special Weight, Jan. 15. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Hejazi, a New York-bred, $3.55-million EASMAY sale topper, is among the headliners in Saturday's 11-horse GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita. He has four races of experience, but only one try around two turns, which came last October while still a maiden and attempting winners (third in the GI American Pharoah S.).

He drew post seven for the San Felipe, and coming off a 6 1/2-furlong MSW score in which he led the field through early fractions of :21.97 and :44.28, Hejazi projects to be a forward factor on the stretch-out.

This will be his second start off a freshening (and his first for trainer Tim Yakteen on a transfer from Bob Baffert), and Hejazi merits respect based on the 97 Beyer he earned and the authoritative way he swatted back two deep-stretch challengers inside the final 100 yards.

A concern, though, is that four of the horses he beat on Jan. 15 have already raced again, and the best finish among them was a third-place try.

Instant Coffee's company lines got a boost when the third- and fourth-place finishers out of his Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. tally came back to win their next starts. Confidence Game (Candy Ride {Arg}) scored in last Saturday's GII Rebel S. at 18-1 odds and Denington (Gun Runner) popped at 8-1 in a Feb. 18 first-level allowance route at Fair Grounds.

This son of Bolt d'Oro ($200,000 KEESEP) is three-for-four lifetime, with his only loss coming when fourth in a key renewal of the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland last October.

He is, however, the type of colt you'd like to see more of before deciding if he's a true 10-furlong horse.

That's not going to happen under trainer Brad Cox's current two-prep sophomore plan. With the Mar. 25 GII Louisiana Derby projected as his next race, Instant Coffee is going to have nine weeks between starts trying to make the jump from 1 1/16 miles to 1 3/16 miles, then another six weeks until the 10-furlong Kentucky Derby.

He's currently two breezes into training since his last race.

9) RED ROUTE ONE (c, Gun Runner–Red House, by Tapit) O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GISP, 7-1-2-1, $492,575. Last Start: 2nd in Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. Kentucky Derby Points: 33.

Red Route One is a longer-the-better type who isn't going to head to Louisville as a Derby standout. Yet he has the staying power and pedigree to be a dangerous threat; the type of double-digit longshot who will sit far back, make one sustained run, and if the trip and pace scenarios shake out in his favor–look out.

This son of Gun Runner out of a full-sister to Eclipse Award and GI Longines Kentucky Oaks winner Untapable (Tapit) is a Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred who rallied from far off the tailgate and splashed into the homestretch of the GII Rebel S. with abandon, avoiding the crowding that was going on closer to the rail but not still shying from outer-path roughhousing in upper stretch before accelerating with a separate, deep-race burst in the run to the wire (92 Beyer for second).

True, he's never won on dirt. But Red Route One's past-performance block consists of seven route races on turf and dirt, and a wet racetrack hasn't been a problem on the three occasions he's encountered slop (twice second, once fifth).

“Obviously, we're anxious for the races to go farther,” said trainer Steve Asmussen. “Not positive we won't wheel him back in the Louisiana Derby, a mile and three-sixteenths. Quit messing around and get him on out there.”

10) GEAUX ROCKET RIDE (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Beyond Grace, by Uncle Mo) O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-OXO Equine LLC (Ky); T-Richard Mandella. Sales history: $350,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $40,200. Last Start: Won Maiden Special Weight at Santa Anita Jan. 29. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

This colt's 92-Beyer, 5 3/4-length, smash-and-grab score in a six-furlong Santa Anita MSW sprint was encouraging enough for the generally conservative trainer Richard Mandella to declare him a “geaux” for two-turn stakes company, and he'll start from post eight in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe S. on Saturday.

Geaux Rocket Ride's form was flattered when the runner-up from that Jan. 29 win, Sonoran (Ride on Curlin), returned Feb. 20 to break his maiden by 7 1/4 lengths as a 3-5 favorite.

This $350,000 FTKJUL son of Candy Ride (Arg) retains the services of jockey Flavien Prat for this weekend's engagement.

But, like six other entrants in the San Felipe, he'll have to come off the medication Lasix as he advances into stakes territory. That many horses making the off-Lasix switch lends an accentuated a wild-card flavor to what already looms as a tough 11-horse race to handicap.

11) CONFIDENCE GAME (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Eblouissante, by Bernardini) O-Don't Tell My Wife Stables; B-Summer Wind Equine, LLC (Ky); T-J K Desormeaux. Sales history: $25,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-1-2, $785,525. Last Start: Won Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 57.

Confidence Game is a plucky, adaptable overachiever ($25,000 KEESEP) with some racing royalty in his bloodlines: his dam, former 'TDN Rising Star' Eblouissante, is a Bernardini half-sister to the mighty Zenyatta.

Trainer Keith Desormeaux said this son of Candy Ride (Arg) “sort of lost his mind in the paddock” prior to his 94-Beyer winning effort in the sloppy Rebel S. last Saturday. But jockey James Graham was able to settle down Confidence Game during his warm-up, and the colt got a sweet mid-pack trip while fifth behind two longshot speedsters and two stalking favorites who never truly fired despite no-excuse trips.

Responding to far-turn rousing, Confidence Game got third run at the wilting leaders while widest off the turn, then largely avoided inside traffic with a work-in-progress kind of stretch run that included some outward wandering late (94 Beyer).

“He's really come into his own,” Desormeaux said. “He started off pretty immature. But as the races went on [seven total, five of them routes], he has improved things mentally and physically.”

12) LITIGATE (c, Blame–Salsa Diavola, by Mineshaft) O-Centennial Farms; B-Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent (Ky); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $370,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $182,590. Last Start: Won Feb. 11 GIII Sam F. Davis S. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

Litigate, a $370,000 KEESEP colt by Blame, will be on trainer Todd Pletcher's traveling team with an expected next start in the Louisiana Derby. He most recently scored a 1 1/4-length win in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa.

Note that even though the track is listed as 'fast' on the Equibase chart, that Feb. 11 race was run in a downpour, which might be a contributing factor to Litigate's tepid 77 Beyer and the race's lethargic closing fractions.

Sent to clear the field from post 10 by Luis Saez, Litigate ably rated back to fifth on the backstretch. He uncorked a decent move between the five-sixteenths pole and the quarter pole, then had to be ridden hard through the lane to put away a 21-1 shot and a 12-1 shot, finishing through driving rain in a sluggish final sixteenth clocked in :7.05.

His two previous tries showed promise, and they could prove to be useful building blocks as this colt attempts longer races more suited to his distance-centric pedigree: sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Aqueduct Nov. 19, Litigate stalked with purpose behind a three-way battle for the lead, patiently took the overland route through the turn, then drew away respectably. Tasked with a one-turn mile allowance at Gulfstream Jan. 8, he nailed second by a nose behind a daylight winner.

He's worth consideration in New Orleans if you think the long Fair Grounds stretch will be his friend.

The post TDN Derby Top 12 For Mar. 2: Will March Separate Lions From Lambs appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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‘Every Sale, I Fall in Love With Horses Again’

The tone was so casual that Donato Lanni couldn't be sure quite how earnest the words had been. If he saw something interesting at a yearling sale, he was to let George Krikorian know. Still in his 20s, Lanni had first connected with the movie theater magnate when cold calling on behalf of John T.L. Jones Jr. after a Corwyn Bay (Ire) filly won a maiden in his silks. Might Krikorian breed the dam back to the Walmac stallion? He did just that and, when he came to visit the Bluegrass, the pair hit it off straightaway.

But nobody had ever asked Lanni to buy a horse before. And here he was, gazing at a Dynaformer yearling at Fasig-Tipton's Fall Sale in 1999. He'd seen her at Keeneland the previous month, unsold at $47,000: he liked her then, and liked her now. But in those days, with no clients, he was too embarrassed even to fill out a card. He'd just watch from a polite distance as others had different horses pulled out and walked.

“You wait for that opportunity in life where someone asks you to do something, and you want to grab the bull by the horns,” Lanni remembers. “You've rehearsed it in your mind, you're ready. But George said it in such a nonchalant way, I wasn't sure if he was serious or not.”

Only one thing for it: call the man and check.

“Hey, I found this filly.”
“I'm busy,” Krikorian replied. “Just buy her.”

And hung up.

“What does that mean!?” Lanni asked himself. “What if she brings a lot of money? I don't really know this guy. And you hear all these stories of people reneging…”

He needn't have worried about Krikorian, of course; but the way things have turned out, Krikorian was himself in the safest of hands. Barely thinking about it, he had just launched one of the most inspired horsemen of his generation on a brilliant career.

“We got lucky,” Lanni says with a shrug. “I mean, I had no idea she was going to be a star.”

But everything that has happened since suggests that an awful lot of judgement compounded the luck admittedly needed with any horse. Imagine having this one shot-very likely your only shot, if things didn't work out-and spending just $35,000 for what turned out to be dual Grade I-winning millionaire Starrer. You wouldn't believe it, if you saw it in one of Krikorian's cinemas. But only a couple of summers later Lanni found him the aptly named Hollywood Story (Wild Rush), as it happens out of a Dynaformer mare, and she too won a couple of Grade Is on her way to banking seven figures. She has meanwhile earned new celebrity as dam of Honor A.P. Honor Code).

Typically, however, for Lanni himself the tale is all about the client.

“He's a great story: self-made, Vietnam vet, started from scratch, an amazing personality,” he says. “Those two mares became the foundation of his farm, and he loves the breeding side now. But it was great for me, that he trusted me.

“Because I do think that for anything you do in life, you surround yourself with genuine people. Good things happen when you have good people around you, as long as you just stay patient and focused. I think those are the two really important thing: good people, and then just staying on course. 'Stay in the buggy.' That was always Johnny Jones's go-to, and that resonated with me.”

Donato Lanni and Bob Baffert| Fasig-Tipton

Since then, Lanni has found a litany of champions-many for his great friend and collaborator, Bob Baffert, from Arrogate to Authentic; but also plenty for other barns, lately including Canadian champion Moira (Ghostzapper) and a fresh name on the Derby trail in Rocket Can (Into Mischief). So, okay, he can sign big dockets nowadays. As we'll see, however, he still loves dredging the second week of the September Sale; and still turns up bargains anyone could have had. Competitors don't talk of Lanni with envy. They talk with immense respect; almost as though he were some kind of savant, deploying intuitions that can't be learned or articulated. But that won't stop us asking him how they evolved.

The exteriors are familiar: dashing Italian looks, flashbulb smile. But the mindset? Well, it was shaped by “a very strict, old school” upbringing by first-generation immigrants from Campobasso, near Rome, to Montreal. He's grateful for that, believing that young people today miss out on proper communication, proper relationships even, by constant immersion in screens.

Lanni's father worked in construction and occasionally claimed a Standardbred at the old Blue Bonnets Raceway.

“So my story is no different from most people in the horse business,” he says. “Someone took you to the track and, without you really knowing it, something inside you lit or didn't light. And I started handicapping and reading the Form and studying the pedigrees. And at a very young age, maybe 10 or 11, I got a groom license.”

That was for summer work but Lanni was not much older when effectively becoming an assistant trainer, coming to the backside before school and sneaking back for qualifying sessions. Looking back, he realizes how much he owes Standardbred mentors like Andre LaChance, who taught him about soundness, legs, how to keep a horse healthy and thriving.

But then came the revelation of Thoroughbreds, with their wider horizons. He remembers watching a Kentucky Derby and announcing to his mother that someday he would be there too. If the Bluegrass was where the best horses were, and the best horsemen, then that was where he would go.

He obliged his parents by first going to business school, his dad having driven home the principles of his upbringing with a couple of years in his own trade after high school. Lanni worked in the trenches, pouring cement in the cold, and it soon dawned on him that if it was tough at 19 or 20, would he want to be doing the same at 60? As soon as he had sat his last exam, he came home and packed his beaten-up old Volkswagen.

“Where you going?”
“Well, mom, remember when I told you I was going to go to Kentucky?”
“What are you talking about?”
“I told you. Kentucky. I'm leaving.”
“When?”
“Now.”
Here was dad. “Where's he going?”
“Kentucky!”
“Where!? Why? How long? When's he coming back?”
“He's not!”

Thinking back, Lanni smiles wryly.

“I knew I couldn't say anything before, because of the drama, my Italian mother crying and screaming,” he says. “So it was like peeling off a band-aid. I drove down, it was late May, I went through Keeneland and was just in awe. It's like some kids went to Europe 'to find themselves'. I never understood what that meant, 'find myself'. But I was determined to figure out if I was going to make it or not, how to incorporate the passion I had.”

Luckily, without his knowing, a buddy had thrown a tent into his car. Lanni drove round the Horse Park and was delighted to find a campsite. It was a fun summer, and every time they're in the neighborhood he drives through and tells his kids, “This is where I started.”

Actually, his first job restored him to his roots, managing Standardbred yearlings for John Cashman at Castleton Farm. But he had his heart set on Thoroughbreds and Cashman told him to knock the door of Johnny Jones at Walmac: “Just show up and do your thing.”

So he told Jones he would work for nothing, implored him just to give him a phone, a Rolodex, and let him sell some seasons. Jones, suitably impressed, even paid him. And one of the calls he made, as we've seen, was to Krikorian.

When Jones retired, Lanni was hired by his compatriot John Sikura at Hill 'n' Dale.

“With Johnny Jones and John Sikura, you're talking about two very different people with quite a lot in common,” he reflects. “Both started with nothing and built an empire. Both great horsemen, with tremendous business instincts. Very determined. And just positive people who worked hard every day. It was great, because you came to work and just kept learning every day. I was so lucky to work for two of the most dynamic people in the business for 25 years, before I met Bob and went on my own.”

With Baffert, Lanni discovered an immediate personal rapport. But that, plainly, wouldn't be enough on its own. They were also on the same wavelength when it came to horseflesh.

“Well, the trust grew and the relationship grew,” Lanni says. “He is my sounding board. Really Bob took me and pretty much molded me, taught me how to look at horses. I mean, his record speaks for itself. He's a genius, a survivor, an amazing horseman. Just loves his horses. He's Cool Hand Luke, he keeps everything cool and it's a treat to watch him with each horse in the morning. And his work ethic is unbelievable. But as hard as he works, he's taught me that if it's not fun, then you shouldn't be doing it. Because if you're not having fun, you'd go crazy, it'd eat you up.”

But even when you can shop Book 1, there's that elusive element that prevents it being a straightforward equation from sale-topper to Derby winner. Beside the obvious physique, and the obvious pedigree, you have to seek something less tangible: that will to win. Can you read the competitive instinct in a horse that has never had a saddle on its back?

“I think it would sound strange to say that anybody can do that,” Lanni replies. “Bob always says just to use your instinct. 'What's your gut say?' And I think there's that gut factor in anything, in any business. You've got to believe in yourself, trust yourself. And most of the time you'll be wrong, but every once in a while you will land on an Arrogate. Is it skill? I think it's more luck than skill, absolutely. But if you're around them long enough, no matter if it's Standardbred or Thoroughbred, you start understanding horses. They are unbelievable creatures: they've been around a long time, and they've survived, right?

“I enjoy finding that needle in a haystack. That's why I love shopping in Book 6. That, to me, is more gratifying because everybody likes an underdog. You just got to go and turn every rock over. And that has been my thing in life. Never assume. Verify.”

The bottom reaches of the market, where Lanni started out, were also where he first found Baffert. The last session, to the last horse. That's the ethic Lanni admires: something he feels you don't see so much, today.

He thanks his parents for that, the days he was pouring concrete. That's why he feels so much respect for the backside community: the trainers, vets, blacksmiths, grooms. “That life is not for the weak,” he stresses. “My job is not even in the same breath.”

War Like Goddess | Coglianese

That said, the mission does feel tougher every year. He emphasizes his respect for talented rivals, while nowadays potent partnerships all seem to be targeting the same animals. But that's why nothing is more fulfilling than the ugly ducklings, the ones that take a bit of imagination. And very few horses have given Lanni more satisfaction than War Like Goddess, the English Channel filly he bought at OBS June for $30,000. She'd made $1,200 as a weanling, and was unsold at $1,000 as a yearling. To find her for Krikorian, above all, brought things full circle: another filly who won two Grade Is, for Bill Mott, earning almost $2 million.

“I hadn't bought George a horse in a long time,” he explains. “We'd quit buying because his breeding program had got so big. But this filly is what's so great about this business. People say it's the Sport of Kings, that only the wealthy can participate. Well, there's a filly that didn't bring one bid as a yearling. Anybody could have had her. I probably saw her, and obviously I didn't buy her. So anybody can play the game.”

In the event, Lanni figured she was the last kind of horse to shine in an under-tack show.

“Bred to go a mile and a half on the grass, and people want her to go an eighth in :10 flat!” he exclaims. “She just needed time and there weren't many people that would give a horse a year off, like George would. And actually she worked really well, :10.2. I knew George was the only person that would do what she needed. And now he's been rewarded.”

Once again, Lanni forces the narrative away from his own contribution. And that's authentic. You can always tell false modesty, and here's a man transparently averse taking himself too seriously.

“It makes me uncomfortable talking about myself, and success I've had,” he says. “It takes a good horse, a great team effort, and a bit of luck for everything to work out at the end of the day. It all started with a love for the horse. I never imagined I would be where I am today. I have always put the horses and their needs first, and I fall in love with them over and over again, at every sale.”

Lanni's wife is a doctor and her daily experiences help him keep our essentially trivial business in due perspective. Instead he reiterates gratitude for his own fortune and urges the next generation to persevere towards their own.

“I want young people to know that you can do anything you want in this business, in any business,” he says. “You just have to stay positive, stay focused. Stay in that buggy! And eventually an opportunity will present itself, and you will know it's time to take that chance and make the best of it. You just put one brick on top of another and slowly chip away, chip away, and eventually you'll get to where you want to be. Find what you're good at, stay with it.

“I'm only here today because of the people that trust me to do what I do. And I just try to stay quiet and humble along the way and hope that we continue to win races.”

He won't be able to avoid the limelight if Hopper (Declaration Of War) can win the Big 'Cap on Saturday, only his third start since breaking his maiden. This was a $90,000 gem deep in the September Sale: further confirmation, then, that it's not just the funding nowadays available to Lanni that sets him apart. But exactly that, he insists, is what gives everyone a chance-and what makes our industry so captivating.

“Because it's all a mystery,” he says. “And that's why it's fun to get up every morning. You never know what's going to happen. And to think that I get to do this every day for a living. When I go back home for Christmas every year, I remind myself how lucky I am. Noone's cracked it. I mean that. If I told you that I think I know what I'm doing, I don't. I've just gotten lucky. I've gotten really lucky, because of the people you meet.”

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The Week in Review: “Trice” As Nice on the Derby Trail

On a Saturday that included bi-coastal graded stakes for sophomores, the most emphatic performance on the GI Kentucky Derby trail was orchestrated in a first-level allowance race at Gulfstream Park by Tapit Trice (Tapit).

It wasn't just the eight-length blowout margin of victory or the 92 Beyer Speed Figure that made the athletic gray's effort stand out. It's the fluid, three-race progression and unruffled demeanor that suggests Tapit Trice is ascending his developmental arc while honing an air of confident capability.

A $1.3 million KEESEP yearling owned in partnership by Whisper Hill Farm and breeder Gainesway, this Todd Pletcher trainee debuted as the second favorite in a one-turn Aqueduct mile Nov. 6. Green at the break from the outermost post, Tapit Trice willingly tucked in behind traffic, split horses, and finished with interest before galloping out like he had won the race, even though he checked in third.

Start number two was another mile try in New York, this time over sealed mud as the 17-10 fave Dec. 17. Again in no rush out of the gate, Tapit Trice lagged but got maneuvered out to the eight path to avoid getting pelted with kickback. He quickly clicked into “chase” mode, latching on to the back of the first flight a half mile out. He unleashed a field-looping bid in the six path turning for home, picked off the two pacemakers, then seemed unfazed when brushing and bumping with the second fave before nailing the win by a neck. Initially assigned an 89 Beyer, Tapit Trice's figure got recalibrated to an 87 prior to his Feb. 4 start in Florida.

Tapit Trice drew the rail and got first-time Lasix for Saturday's one-turn mile at Gulfstream, and somewhat surprisingly, he wasn't favored in the betting. That distinction went to another Pletcher trainee, Shesterkin (Violence), who had won at first asking over the track and closed at 9-10 odds while Tapit Trice went off at 13-10.

Jockey Luis Saez had to shake the reins at Tapit Trice when the starter sprang the latch, but the colt's characteristically lackadaisical way of getting out of the gate allowed Saez to swing him out to the five path behind everybody else. Tapit Trice then didn't need much encouragement to pick off half the pack as the field cleared the chute, and he assertively took up a stalking spot while gaining methodically through the turn.

Shesterkin got first run on the wilting 13-1 pacemaker. At the same time, Tapit Trice crested the five-sixteenths pole like a rolling, gray wave. He took dead aim on his stablemate and cracked Shesterkin without much of a fight by the time they reached the quarter pole.

Tapit Trice got to gawking around a bit freewheeling off the turn, but Saez saw no need to over-correct the colt. A right-handed crack of the crop nearing the furlong marker and a mild, kept-to-task drive was all it took to produce a focused finish in 1:36.44, with another strong gallop-out whetting the appetite for what this colt might be capable of once he finally gets hooked into a true stretch test.

Post-race, Pletcher was non-committal about a next start beyond affirming that Tapit Trice would next show up in a stakes. The score elevated the colt to 'TDN Rising Star' status.

Double 'Mischief'

A pair of Into Mischief colts swept the pair of Grade III events over 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream and Santa Anita.

In the Holy Bull S., Rocket Can established a foothold in the Derby pecking order with a visually impressive victory that came back light on the Beyer scale (82).

In the Robert B. Lewis S., 'TDN Rising Star' Newgate won a last-to-first stretch scrap over three so-so stablemates, earning a strong number (a 100 Beyer, shared with the runner-up) while having to work harder than expected for the win.

The Holy Bull in recent history hasn't been a safe haven for favorites, who have lost every edition of this race since 2017, with the exception of Tiz the Law's win in 2020.

Rocket Can was off as the 5-2 second choice for owner Frank Fletcher Racing Operations and trainer Bill Mott, and jockey Junior Alvarado opted to let the gray roll straight out of the gate from the outermost eight draw even though it cost them five paths of real estate on the first turn.

Rocket Can remained comfortably parked in the five lane while three lengths off the lead down the backstraight behind an opening quarter of :23.92 and identical second and third splits of :24.92.

Rolling four deep through the far turn, Alvarado nudged Rocket Can for more run five-sixteenths out, and the colt responded, seizing the lead off the turn and remaining mentally locked in once he hit the front under steady coaxing.

Rocket Can appeared to sense 34-1 stablemate Shadow Dragon (Army Mule) bearing down with a late bid, and maintained a three-quarter length margin under the short-stretch finish wire.

Although the 82 Beyer showed no progression over a same-fig second against allowance company at Churchill last Nov. 26, Rocket Can has now put together three straight races in which he's come out running to establish good early position, and he knows how to pounce off the far turn. This colt has also willingly engaged in deep-stretch showdowns in each of his last three, winning twice and not looking overmatched the day he was a runner-up.

It's also notable that Rocket Can won on Saturday despite the disadvantage of being a midpack stalker drawn outside over a track configuration that starts close to the first turn and ends at the sixteenth pole. He also had to make up ground into a moderate pace before finishing up with a respectable :24.78 final quarter and :6.43 last sixteenth for a final clocking of 1:44.97.

And on the left coast…

Newgate | Benoit Photo

The years-long quantity/quality decline in sophomore stakes on the southern California circuit reached a new nadir Saturday when a four-horse field went to post in the Lewis and every one of the entrants hailed from the same dominant stable.

The effect was like watching a set of trainer Bob Baffert's B-level 3-year-olds work out over 1 1/16 miles. The field was comprised of a maiden, two colts that had not won beyond the maiden ranks, and another who broke his maiden in a restricted stakes at Los Alamitos.

Even Baffert recognized the dysfunctionality of the situation in his post-race comments. “I was actually nervous before the race, worried that something weird might happen,” he said.

Something weird almost did happen: The longest shot of the quartet, the 12-1 Hard to Figure (Hard Spun), nearly stole the race.

In fact, Hard to Figure's gutsy loss by a neck resonated as a better performance than Newgate's all-out, last-to-first winning effort.

That's because Hard to Figure and Ramon Vazquez applied pressure outside of the second favorite, Arabian Lion (Justify), through lively early quarter-mile splits (:23.87, :23.89). The colt then had enough oomph left late to give Newgate and Frankie Dettori a serious run for the money through the lane.

The closing half of the race featured honest third and fourth quarters of :24.22, and :24.67 (plus :6.46 for the last sixteenth) for a final clocking of 1:43.11. Hard to Figure then galloped out past Newgate after the wire.

Hard to Figure is a May 19 foal whose only previous win came in the $75,000 Capote S. over 6 ½ furlongs, a race restricted to non-winners of a $50,000 stakes.

Newgate has been undergoing some change-of-tactics schooling that involves teaching him to make one sustained run instead of pressing the pace like he did at age two. He now sports a Beyer pattern that shows increases in four consecutive races.

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