Equibase Analysis: Thomas Shelby Could Get Perfect Trip In Oaklawn’s Fifth Season

Nine horses are entered in Saturday's $150,000 Fifth Season Stakes at Oaklawn Park, including the 2019 and 2021 winners of the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, Long Range Toddy and Concert Tour, respectively. Long Range Toddy is winless in 16 races since then while Concert Tour, last seen finishing ninth of 10 in the G1 Preakness Stakes, returns from an eight month layoff and a change to the barn of Brad Cox.

Snapper Sinclair leads the field in career earnings at $1.8 million. He has run poorly in his last two races but one was his first ever try on an all-weather surface and the other was in the G1 Breeders' Cup Mile. Two races prior to that Snapper Sinclair won the TVG Stakes on the grass at Kentucky Downs. Rated R Superstar, who returns from four months off, is another who has had a fine career to date, earning $1.1 million, with his most recent win coming in the Governor's Cup Stakes in August.

Mucho enters the Fifth Season Stakes in superb form with six straight in-the-money finishes including a win in the Challedon Stakes last summer. However, Mucho is running in a two-turn race for the very first time after 29 races around one turn. Necker Island is another horse stretching out to two turns. He won the Bet On Sunshine Stakes in November as one of five wins in his career.

Thomas Shelby really likes to win races, with 10 victories in 24 career races. His most recent effort was a second place finish in the Tinsel Stakes at Oaklawn last month. Silver Prospector is approaching the $1 million mark in career earnings. After winning the G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn in the winter of 2020, he has won just one of eight races. Atoka rounds out the field, entering the race off a runner-up effort in an allowance race over the track from which he was moved up to first after the winner was disqualified.

Top Contenders

Thomas Shelby draws the rail for this mile trip and that means jockey David Cohen will have the ability to put him on the lead, which has resulted in three wins in his last four starts, or settle him just off the pace, which has resulted in another three wins before that. Thomas Shelby joined the barn of trainer Robertino Diodoro in November of 2020 and after finishing fourth, third and seventh in his initial three starts for the barn, has turned into an “alpha” horse, winning seven of 10. Last October Thomas Shelby ran the best race of his career winning a classified allowance race with a personal-best 112 ™ Equibase Speed Figure. He won again in November, then after two months off led until deep stretch before coming up three-quarters of a length short in the Tinsel Stakes. That race was at Oaklawn and was run at a mile and one-eighth, with Thomas Shelby leading at the point this mile race ends so repeating that effort could be good enough to win the Fifth Season Stakes.

Silver Prospector has four career wins, one of which came at Oaklawn. That was when victorious in the 2020 Southwest Stakes with a then career-best 107 ™ figure. After a poor sixth place effort in the Rebel Stakes followed by a poorer seventh place finish in the Arkansas Derby, Silver Prospector was given nearly six months off. Returning in the fall off a lengthy layoff, Silver Prospector raced in top form to win and earned a very strong 106 figure considering the time off. Although winless in five races since, Silver Prospector ran just as well as he had in the comeback when second in the Razorback Stakes last February at Oaklawn, earning a 108 figure. Now rested since last May the same way he was in the spring of 2020 until his strong win in the fall of that year, Silver Prospector has put in a pair of very strong workouts which were the best of 52 and the fourth best of 44 on the day. These signal he could be as fit and ready to run just like he did off a similar layoff, and if he does that he could certainly compete for top honors in this race.

Concert Tour is another returning off a layoff since last May, and he too is working in the morning like he will not need a race before showing his best. Concert Tour won the first three races of his career last year, including the San Vicente Stakes and the Rebel, in which he earned a career-best 104 figure drawing off easily to win by four and one-quarter lengths in geared down fashion. After a third place finish in the Arkansas Derby¸ Concert Tour skipped the Kentucky Derby then showed up in the Preakness, running the worst race of his career when ninth of 10 and beaten more than 30 lengths. Returning to training last October, Concert Tour has been placed in the care of trainer Brad Cox, who has an exceptional record of nine wins from 25 starts with horses coming back from six months off or more in dirt routes. As such, Concert Tour appears to fit with the best of the contenders in this year's Fifth Season.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Atoka (100), Long Range Toddy (102), Mucho (108 in sprint races), Necker Island (108 in sprint races), Rated R Superstar (105) and Snapper Sinclair (115 on turf).

Win contenders, in preference/probability order:
Thomas Shelby
Silver Prospector
Concert Tour

Fifth Season Stakes
Race 8 at Oaklawn
Saturday, January 15, 2022 – Post Time 4:46 PM E.T.
One Mile
Four Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $150,000

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The Week in Review: Diminutive Shinny Towers Above Them All

At the start of 2021, Rob Rosette was a Thoroughbred owner without much of a racing stable. His horses went 0-for-2 in all of 2019, and although his only two runners won three races from 10 combined starts in 2020, the prolonged pandemic shutdown of racing in his home state of Arizona made it difficult to stay in the game he had pursued as a hobby for a decade.

But still, back on Jan. 13, Rosette had a brain spark he thought might generate some enjoyment.

Although probably not, as he now recalls, anything even remotely resembling an equine windfall.

“My barn had dwindled down due to lack of racing opportunities, and Turf Paradise was just reopening after COVID,” Rosette told TDN via phone Saturday. “I called my trainer, Robertino Diodoro, and told him I wanted to do something really degenerate. I said, 'You're going to think I'm crazy, but I want to claim a $3,500 non-winners-of-three horse. He's very well bred, and if he wins, we might be getting a horse that we can really have fun with.'”

That low-end claimer was Shinny (Square Eddie), a 4-year-old gelding who was 2-for-8 lifetime. He had been bred in California by Reddam Racing, won his second career start, against open MSW company, on Dec. 15, 2019, at Golden Gate Fields, then backslid in class while migrating to SoCal and later scraping bottom in New Mexico.

After eyeballing Shinny's pedigree, Diodoro told Rosette he had heard crazier ideas, so he agreed to drop a claim slip on his client's behalf.

Shinny won that day, meaning the gelding was fresh out of lifetime conditions for his new connections. But the low claiming price he ran for would make Shinny eligible for almost any starter-allowance spot in the country, which had been part of the appeal.

Ambitiously, Rosette and Diodoro next entered Shinny for an $8,500 tag, more than double his just-claimed value. The bay pressed the pace in a 6 1/2 -furlong sprint and ended up second, beaten only a neck.

Rosette recalled thinking, “He's a little bit better than we thought.”

Flipping through the Turf Paradise condition book, Rosette suggested to his trainer that , “They've got this race where you can enter a starter-allowance if they haven't won on turf. And with that breeding, let's give it a try.”

Diodoro agreed, and the gelding went off favored at even money going 7 1/2 furlongs on the lawn.

“And man, he crushed them by 6 1/2 lengths,” Rosette said. “From there, I was like, let's keep him in these conditions and have fun.”

Shinny next ran sixth in an Apr. 7 optional claiming/1x allowance spot. But he won his subsequent start Apr. 16 for win number three on the year.

The determined gelding hasn't lost since. Shinny has now hit the winner's circle in 10 straight outings after summering at Canterbury Park in Minnesota then returning to Arizona.

When he rallied into a slow pace to win with an explosive burst up the rail Dec. 17 at Turf Paradise, the victory vaulted him to the top of the winningest horse list in North America for 2021. Among the 46,064 Thoroughbreds to have made at least one start this year, the diminutive Shinny towers above them all with 12 wins.

“Along the way, something went right with Shinny,” Rosette explained, the sense of respect for the gelding evident in his tone. “Something just clicked in his head. He's such a tiny little thing, and it looks like he's going to lose every race. But three, four jumps before the wire, something happens with him where he just accelerates and he takes off.

“He can run long, he can run short, he can run on the dirt, he can run on the turf. He's eligible for this condition for the next couple of years,” Rosette said.

He told Diodoro midway through the season, “Let's don't get too ambitious with him, and just see if we can keep having a little fun.”

Rosette is no stranger to a rags-to-riches metamorphosis. A Chippewa-Cree tribal member who grew up in a single-wide trailer just outside the Rocky Boy's Indian Reservation in the Bear Paw Mountains of northern Montana, Rosette struggled to make ends meet for his wife and children while putting himself through law school at Arizona State University in the early 1990s. He now devotes his professional life as an attorney to helping tribal entities, and the Phoenix law firm he founded in 2005 has grown to offices in four states and in Washington, D.C.

“I give Shinny's credit to three things,” Rosette said. “I think the horse has figured out what he's doing. He has fun and takes care of himself. I think Robertino and his team are having fun, and they take care of the horse, with the right entries and staying where he should be. And then Lindey Wade, the jockey–I talk to him a lot and we've drawn a little bit closer–and man, does he love Shinny. And he told me the same thing, 'This horse has grown on me, where I take care of him, and he just kind of takes care of himself, and we're all having a blast.'”

There is technically one other Thoroughbred in North America who has hit the winner's circle 12 times this year: Six Ninety One (Congrats), a 9-year-old starter-allowance stalwart who, like Shinny, is also based in Arizona.

The speed-on-the-lead sprint specialist has won 10 races from 19 starts strictly against Thoroughbreds. But trainer Alfredo Asprino, who owns the gelding in partnership with Jesus Vielma, also saddled Six Ninety One to a 2-for-2 record in Quarter Horse dashes. That brings his record to 12-for-21 this year, but it only counts for bragging rights, because Equibase doesn't mix victory and earnings totals between the two breeds.

Greely and Ben (Greeley's Conquest), currently at 11 wins, is the only other Thoroughbred with a realistic chance to match Shinny's total as 2021 draws to a close. The 7-year-old is owned and trained by Karl Broberg (End Zone Athletics), and although this gelding, too, took advantage of ripe pickings at starter-allowance levels throughout the year, Broberg has entered Greeley and Ben against tougher stakes company the last two starts (a win and a second).

When TDN called Broberg Saturday, he said he was leaning toward entering Greeley and Ben next in the five-furlong $75,000 Sam's Town S. at Delta Downs Jan. 8. But when informed that Shinny just won No. 12 the day before, Broberg deadpanned, “Now you're going to make me squeeze in a starter-allowance before the end of the year.”

But he's not kidding.

“I'm undecided. If the right race hits us somewhere, I'm all about it,” Broberg later added.

Broberg, the nation's winningest trainer by overall victories between 2014-19, has only once had an individual horse in contention for most-win honors despite the large scale of his stable, which operates at numerous tracks throughout the South and Midwest.

“It's always on my radar,” Broberg said. “It's kind of interesting to see what horse has knocked out the most wins in a year. I think it's cool and I always look at it, regardless of whether or not I have a horse up there. But at no point has it ever been a goal or something that was a concerted effort, like, 'I need to do this.' It's one of those things that just has to happen for you.

“I've been watching [Shinny]. I thought I had [winningest horse honors] put away safe, and then that Diodoro horse just kept winning,” Broberg said. “I don't even understand how they're even able to fill that race he keeps winning.”

Shinny and Greeley and Ben are on opposite ends of the spectrum physically–Broberg's gelding is a brawny 1,200-pounder, while Rosette's runner can be kindly described as small but scrappy. They're also worlds apart as far as their racing histories are concerned–Shinny was barely earning his keep at Zia Park, while Greeley and Ben shared early-career company lines with horses who ran in the Triple Crown and Breeders' Cup. Yet both Rosette and Broberg chose the word “blessed” when describing their feelings about their respective standings-toppers.

“It's really been a blessing for me as an owner,” Rosette said. “I used to be just happy winning three or four races a year. And to have a horse win 12 races for me, it's been remarkable. Every time out, I keep thinking it has to end. He can't win forever. But as Lindey says, 'He just finds another gear and he's gone.' He's such a great horse. We're going to keep him as a pet forever.”

Rosette's appreciation for Shinny extends beyond the win streak. He detailed how the gelding has changed his life as an owner of other racehorses, primarily because of the roughly $100,000 in purse earnings Shinny has pulled in since being claimed.

“This is what's funny about Shinny, and it's the God-honest truth,” Rosette said. “Before, the most I had ever spent on a horse was $7,500 or maybe $10,000. But with all of these winnings, I sent $50,000 to Del Mar and claimed Tiger Dad (Smiling Tiger) on Nov. 12. Then we entered him in the Luke Kruytbosch S. here at Turf Paradise two weeks later for 60 grand–and he crushed it,” winning by 1 1/2 lengths.

“So now I became a stakes owner. After the win, I'm sitting in the stall with this trophy and this gigantic, massive horse and everyone's admiring Tiger Dad. But I said, 'See that skinny, little horse Shinny down there? He's the one who made this possible. He's the one who paid the bills to make this happen.'

“And then the other thing we did is we bought a 2-year-old at auction. I would have never spent money like that,” Rosette said. “That 2-year-old is now at Oaklawn with Robertino, because he said she was good enough to go there. So now, Shinny has built on his back–I wouldn't say a legitimate stable–but we've got two starters now that are legitimate horses that I never dreamed of having.

“I tell you, I really owe it all to this little 4-year-old gelding,” Rosette said. “I sometimes think of changing my stable name from Rosette Racing to Shinny Stables.”

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Lone Rock Shortens Up Successfully, Takes Tinsel Stakes At Oaklawn

Lone Rock has made his reputation as a long distance specialist, winning at a mile and a half and beyond more than once in 2021, but he showed in the inaugural Tinsel Stakes at Oaklawn Racing Casino Resort that he can win at nine furlongs as well. Over a muddy track in Hot Springs, Ark., the gelded son of Majestic Warrior dug in gamely to outlast stablemate Thomas Shelby and take the stakes by a length.

At the break, jockey Reylu Gutierrez hustled Huge Bigly out to the lead, with Thomas Shelby, Warrior's Charge, and Lone Rock following. Into the first turn, Huge Bigly was a length and a half in front, as Thomas Shelby and jockey David Cohen bided their time in second, with Warrior's Charge and Lone Rock stalking down the backstretch. As they approached the far turn, Cohen sent Thomas Shelby on Huge Bigly's outside, taking the lead with Warrior's Charge looking for room to make his play for the lead.

Lone Rock was caught in traffic on the turn, cutting to the inside of Thomas Shelby as the field enterted the stretch. The two stablemates dueled down the Oaklawn straight, with Beau Luminarie rallying on the far outside. Lone Rock was able to dig in and pass Thomas Shelby, hitting the wire three-quarters of a length in front. Thomas Shelby held on for second as Beau Luminarie's late challenge was not enough to catch the two front runners.

The final time for the 1 1/8 miles was 1:49.77. Find this race's chart here.

Lone Rock paid $5.60, $3.60, and $2.80. Thomas Shelby paid $4.60 and $3.80. Beau Luminarie paid $4.00.

Bred in Kentucky by Town and Country Horse Farms and Pollock Farms, Lone Rock is out of the Hard Spun mare Ruby Lips. He is owned by R. A. Hill Stable and Flying P Stable and trained by Robertino Diodoro. Lone Rock was consigned by Taylor Made Sales and sold to Shortleaf Stable for $55,000 at the July 2016 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Select Yearling Sale. The 6-year-old gelding has seven wins in nine starts in 2021, for a lifetime record of 14 wins in 37 starts and career earnings of $1,144,921.

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Lone Rock Will Try To End 2021 Season On Top In Oaklawn’s Inaugural Tinsel Stakes

Lone Rock tries to punctuate a sensational 2021 campaign in the inaugural $200,000 Tinsel Stakes Saturday at Oaklawn.

Probable post time for the 1 1/8-mile Tinsel, which goes as the ninth of 10 races, is 4:13 p.m. (Central). Racing begins at 12:30 p.m.

The Tinsel, for 3-year-olds and up, is among four new races added to Oaklawn's stakes schedule to accommodate an expanded season in 2021-2022 (66 days) and December opening, the earliest in track history. It has drawn a field of seven, including three millionaire multiple graded stakes winners.

Lone Rock opened 2021 with an allowance victory at 1 1/16 miles last February at Oaklawn, his first start since trainer Robertino Diodoro re-claimed the gelding for $40,000 in November 2020 at Churchill Downs. A two-time allowance winner at the 2021 Oaklawn meeting, Lone Rock flourished after targeting races beyond the American classic distance (1 ¼ miles) and surpassed $1 million in career earnings with a 1 ½-length victory in the $250,000 Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes (G2) Nov. 6 at Del Mar in his last start. Lone Rock set a 1 5/8-mile track record (2:42.61) under Oaklawn regular Ramon Vazquez.

Diodoro said he doesn't believe cutting back to 1 1/8 miles will be a problem for Lone Rock, whose shortest race this year was the February allowance.

“I don't think so, just because the horse is doing so good right now and there's enough speed in there, on paper, anyway,” Diodoro said. “Again, we'll see what happens Saturday.”

Lone Rock has bankrolled $722,884 in winning 6 of 8 starts (all in 2021) since Diodoro took back the now-6-year-old Majestic Warrior gelding on behalf of New York owner Jason Provenzano (Flying P Stable). Prior to the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance, Lone Rock had captured an April 11 allowance race at Oaklawn, $130,000 Isaac Murphy Marathon Overnight Stakes April 27 at Churchill Downs, $400,000 Brooklyn Stakes (G2) June 5 at Belmont Park and the $120,000 Birdstone Stakes Aug. 5 at Saratoga.

The April 11 race, Isaac Murphy and Brooklyn were all 1 ½ miles. The Birdstone was 1 ¾ miles. Lone Rock also finished second in another 1 ½-mile race, the $150,000 Temperence Hill Stakes for older horses, March 13 at Oaklawn.

Overall, Lone Rock has a 13-4-2 record from 36 lifetime starts and earnings of $1,024,921. The Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance was his fifth career stakes victory.

Diodoro said the Tinsel could serve as the gelding's bridge to another shot against Grade-1 company in 2022. Lone Rock ran in the $500,000 Breeders' Futurity (G1) for 2-year-olds in 2017 at Keeneland, but spent most of his career in the allowance ranks before blossoming in niche events this year.

“At the same time, it's one day at a time, definitely,” Diodoro said. “We're just focused on Saturday night now and see what happens.”

Also entered in the Tinsel are Warrior's Charge and Tenfold, two other millionaire multiple graded stakes winners.

Warrior's Charge won the $500,000 Razorback Handicap (G3) for older horses in 2020 at Oaklawn for trainer Brad Cox. Warrior's Charge exits a runner-up finish, beaten a nose by Tinsel entrant Thomas Shelby, in a 1 1/16-mile allowance race Oct. 24 at Keeneland. Warrior's Charge still received a career-high 101 Beyer Speed Figure, four points higher than for his Razorback victory.

“He likes Oaklawn,” Cox said. “I think it's a good spot. He drew well. Looks like a shorter field. I think it's good timing since his last race. He received some big figures out of his last run and he's had plenty of time to recover from it. If he gets some similar figures again, I think we'll be in good shape.”

Tenfold, a Grade 2 winner, captured his first two career starts at the 2018 Oaklawn meeting for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen before finishing third in the Preakness. Diodoro also entered the speedy Thomas Shelby, who has won three consecutive starts, including a narrow decision over Warrior's Charge in October, and seven overall in 2021.

“There's lots of speed in the race, but we definitely aren't changing our tactics, that's for sure,” said Diodoro, who trains Thomas Shelby for four-time defending Oaklawn champion owner M and M Racing (Mike and Mickala Sisk). “We're going to go as hard as we need to go on the front end and hopefully have enough to last.”

The projected seven-horse Tinsel field from the rail out: Huge Bigly, Reylu Gutierrez to ride, 117 pounds, 6-1 on the morning line; Lone Rock, Ramon Vazquez, 124, 8-5; Beau Luminarie, Ricardo Santana Jr., 124, 6-1; Title Ready, Brian Hernandez Jr., 124, 9-2; Tenfold, Luis Contreras, 117, 6-1; Thomas Shelby, David Cohen, 121, 8-1; and Warrior's Charge, Florent Geroux, 124, 5-2.

Diodoro also entered Thomas Shelby in Sunday's seventh race, a starter/optional claimer at 1 1/16 miles.

Beau Luminarie is the first scheduled starter at the meeting for trainer Rodolphe Brisset, who won the $750,000 Oaklawn Handicap (G2) for older horses in 2019 at Oaklawn with Quip. Beau Luminarie is seeking his first stakes victory after near-misses in the $150,000 Ben Ali (G3) April 10 at Keeneland and the $60,000 Tri-State Overnight Aug. 7 at Ellis Park. Although Beau Luminarie has nine runner-up finishes in his 18-race career, he's won his last two starts, both in allowance company this fall in Kentucky.

“I think with the year he's had, it's no pressure,” Brisset said. “He's just turned the corner and found the wire. He's been finding the wire. Before, he had a tendency to want to hang, he had a tendency to want to run second. All of a sudden, he just learned how to win. I think we are in the right spot. I'm not saying he's going to win by 5, but he's improving and we'll see what happens. Likely, he'll get a break after the race and set him up for next year.”

Grade 3 winner Title Ready will be making his second start after finishing 11th behind 2021 Razorback winner Mystic Guide in the $12 million Dubai World Cup (G1) March 27 in the United Arab Emirates for trainer Dallas Stewart.

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