Body & Soul: Don’t Look Now… Well, Maybe We’d Better

This business about sire lines has been driving your correspondent a bit nuts for the past 40 years, dating from when he first came to understand the realm, initially through the discourses of the great analyst Dr. Franco Varola and the estimable author Abe Hewitt. In those days we all not only relied on the historical database of a rather limited number of stallions but also on the patience needed to assess the long-term impact of form, function, and pedigree. You had Phalaris and Swynford, then Nearco and Hyperion, then Nasrullah and Prince Bio, then Bold Ruler and Princequillo, then Northern Dancer and Raise a Native, then Storm Cat and Mr. Prospector, then A.P. Indy and…yada, yada, yada.

Those sire lines developed over time, as did most data-driven assessments in those eras. Ironically, it was the infinitely patient Varola who gave rise to the now half-century-long obsession with various programs assessing nicks, crosses, affinities (or, whatever)–a reflection of the instant gratification culture we have developed. As a result, we are faced with a wide variety of macro and mini “sire lines” these days, real or imagined–none of which we are going to explore today.

Rather, we are going to look at what may be developing right under our noses, and why it is a potential ground shifter. That would be the rather remarkable fact (as of this writing) that the Leading Freshman Sire and two others among the top five on that list are sons of one of the top three Leading General Sires. In addition, those three freshmen sires are from the first crop of their sire’s sons with foals of racing age.

We are speaking, of course, about Nyquist, Laoban, and Outwork, plus their big daddy, Uncle Mo.

What sparked our interest was a nagging curiosity about how a stallion like Uncle Mo could come out of the clouds of sire-line pedigree retrogression to put paid to the thought (among some) that he might be something of an outlier and might fade in both form and favor as the years go on. After all, he is by Indian Charlie, the lone nationally prominent member of a sire line that was most successful in Europe and California. Secondly, he is one big fella, which often requires studious examination of the size, if not shape, of the broodmares sent to his court–“like to like,” if you please.

Our research indicates that Uncle Mo is really no accident of genetics. Indeed, he and his better racing sons who have been dispatched to cover upscale broodmare bands are basically denizens of a remarkably consistent cluster of stallions dating back to an almost iconic and very commercial stallion who was not only not their color (he was gray) but also not quite like any of them biomechanically.

That would be Caro (Ire), who sired Siberian Express who begot In Excess (Ire), who stamped out Indian Charlie. By the Grey Sovereign stallion Fortino, Caro won the Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French 2,000 Guineas) and went on to be an internationally successful stallion. Though probably best remembered in North America as sire of GI Kentucky Derby winner Winning Colors, influential sire Cozzene (whose son Mizzen Mast is still going strong), as well as the broodmare sire of Unbridled’s Song and Maria’s Mon, Caro left a genetic trail behind that was as diverse in aptitude as one could possibly have projected for a horse of his racing record and heritage.

Two of his sons, French Derby winner Crystal Palace and German Horse of the Year Nebos, became influential sires in their home countries. But it was another one–ironically, his only son to duplicate his French 2,000 Guineas success–who became an unexpected linchpin of the sire line aside from Cozzene.

That would be Siberian Express, bred in Kentucky but raced in France and retired to stud in England.

A big, strongly made gray, Siberian Express gained some success at stud but left an indelible mark on the North American racing and breeding scene with his son In Excess–and, according to our research, created a distinctive biomechanical branch of the Caro sire line.

Hold that thought.

In Excess was fast at two and three in England and was purchased at the end of his sophomore campaign and sent to California where a career on turf and dirt spookily bore truth to his name. He won turf stakes before testing the dirt. On dirt, he not only set track records in California and New York, but also became the first horse since Kelso, 30 years before, to win the Metropolitan, Suburban, Whitney, and Woodward, stamping himself the best racehorse in North America. Only an uncharacteristically dull effort in the GI Breeders’ Cup Mile prevented him from becoming Horse of the Year.

After a modest record the following year, In Excess was retired to stud in California where he not only became the leading sire in the state multiple times but, among his more than 40 stakes winners, begot a charismatic and brilliantly fast colt named Indian Charlie, who was the undefeated favorite in the 1998 Kentucky Derby, finished third, then was retired later that summer after injuring a suspensory in a workout. A strongly made dark bay, Indian Charlie was successful while standing in Kentucky with a less than commercial pedigree. He became well worthy of an eventual $70,000 stud fee in 2011 and sired four champions before he died of cancer at the age of 16 that year. He left behind a number of sons, several of them promising or accomplished, but the one for which he will be remembered is Uncle Mo.

Now, go back to that thought we asked you to hold. In our article last month about Super Saver, we referred to a biomechanical program we utilize which compares various measurements of a stallion to those of several hundred successful sires who were born as early as the 1950s to see which ones are similar in size and scope to that sire. We referred to those that were similar as being in “clusters.” What we were looking for at that point was whether there were instances where the same sires appeared in the clusters of various stallions in the Super Saver sire line because pedigree assessments over six generations of sires were only part of the story.

What prompted us to apply the same program to our current task is when we looked at the generally inheritable biomechanical measurements of the branch of the Caro line that began with Siberian Express, we noticed a sharp difference in the size of those two with the latter not only being larger but also having apparently passed most of those measurement sizes on to In Excess, Indian Charlie, Uncle Mo, and the latter’s first three sons with foals of racing age.

We then took those measurements to the next step to determine if there were similarities in clusters among those eight stallions. What we discovered was–in our experience–quite remarkable: Caro was in a cluster that has him closest in size and scope to Stormy Atlantic, Time for a Change, Grand Slam, Lear Fan, A.P. Indy, and Wild Rush. None of those sires appeared in the clusters of the other eight stallions, but every one of those stallions, except one, was in a cluster that included those closest to Siberian Express: Tiznow, Buckpasser, Unbridled, Quality Road, and Royal Academy. Other duplicates included First Samurai and Capote and two of them are in clusters that include In Excess, Indian Charlie, and/or Uncle Mo.

That these clusters are so similar indicates that members of this tribe descending from Siberian Express are of a distinctive “type.” We have rarely seen this kind of data before and, at this point, even though we are hesitant to name one of them as the progenitor of a line, we do know attention must be paid.

Bob Fierro is a partner with Jay Kilgore and Frank Mitchell in DataTrack International, biomechanical consultants and developers of BreezeFigs. He can be reached at bbfq@earthlink.net.

 

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Body & Soul: How Quickly the Tide Turns…

Those of us who grew up in New York City in the 1950s and 1960s were not only blessed with some extraordinary major league teams and athletes, as well as more than enough superior racehorses, but were also lucky that so many of the radio and television play-by-play announcers were among the greatest of all time–ranging from Vin Scully in Brooklyn to Mel Allen in the Bronx to Fred Capossela at Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga.

But the voice that sticks in our mind is that of the man who called the Knick games (Knickerbockers to us luddites): Later a legend in Hawaii, his name was Les Keiter and he kept your interest even in runaways until in some games one team would go on a streak into which he would exclaim, “How quickly the tide turns in basketball!”

Well, dear reader, keep that line in mind because when it comes to stallions whose first foals are yearlings, we have a crowd that has come in on a strong tide that has carried a select group of potentially “big fish” for buyers to consider starting with the upcoming yearling sales.

More specifically we refer to the Freshmen stallions whose offspring would be most likely in demand. We have determined that there will be 27 of them, most of whom stand in Kentucky, and of those 20–or 74%–represent only three sire lines: A.P. Indy, Fappiano and Smart Strike. We have checked our data for the past decade and found that only the Freshman crop of 2010 was close to being as concentrated with specific gene pools with A.P. Indy, Distorted Humor and Storm Cat accounting for 40% of 46 in the base group.

For the purposes of this report, we have grouped together stallions which we have analyzed biomechanically as well as a few that are not in our database yet have enough foals and credibility in their regions to indicate they will have followings. In any case there are only a few of the latter and are not likely to tip the scales dramatically when it comes to the attending Phenotype Targets.

Representing the A.P. Indy line are Malibu Moon’s sons Mr. Z, Gormley and Stanford; Pulpit’s sons American Freedom and Lord Nelson; Tapit’s sons Cupid, Divining Rod and Mohaymen; and Greenpointcrusader, by Bernardini.

From the Fappiano line we have Candy Ride (Arg)’s sons Gun Runner, Unified and Mastery; Unbridled’s Song’s sons Arrogate (deceased) and Bird Song; and from the Empire Maker branch Classic Empire and Midnight Storm, both by Pioneerof the Nile.

We chose Smart Strike as a foundation sire because he has come on strongly through his son Curlin, who has Connect, Keen Ice and Union Jackson in this crop; in addition, Smart Strike now has Lookin At Lucky, whose son Madefromlucky is the first one by that suddenly desirable sire to get a chance at stud.

Let us clarify a few things here. First, we are not necessarily wedded to the concept of sire lines that remain viable as definitive expressions of the aptitudes of a line’s namesake over a long period of time. We have seen so many physical variations within lines over the years that we tend to keep an eyebrow arched when it comes to evaluating whether such a progenitor’s descendants fit a given pattern. In our world that pattern is loosely defined by similarity in Phenotype.

A Phenotype is loosely defined as any characteristic (structural, physiological, or behavioral) which has been determined by its genotype (genetic code) and environment (competitive racing).

Three Phenotype charts, which we have utilized before, illustrate how members of a peer group might resemble each other phenotypically. They are color-coded to identify the sire of each horse, and those sires are also in the group. Caveat: Not every one of the 20 stallions we have mentioned above is depicted on the charts but as we indicated the ones which are not there are not going to significantly shift the patterns shown.

When we first looked at this crowd, we were struck by the impression that over the years what might not have been expected from sons of Fappiano, A.P. Indy and Smart Strike was that they would develop phenotypical tribes of their own. This was especially surprising when it came to Fappiano, who was as structurally balanced as one could hope for (he would be a dot in the center of his target) and yet remains influential today thanks to Cryptoclearance and Unbridled. These were two large individuals who may have appeared to be completely different to the naked eye–Cryptoclearance was rangy and somewhat light while Unbridled was solid and muscular. In fact, they were close to being the same phenotypically and relatively close to each other on the Fappiano chart.

Cryptoclearance went on to be a decent sire (Victory Gallop won the GI Belmont S.), but few would have predicted that one of his more modestly accomplished sons, Ride the Rails, would sire Candy Ride (Arg). Although we have no biomechanical data on Ride the Rails, we did inspect him in Argentina in the year Candy Ride was foaled and he seemed a combination of Fappiano and Cryptoclearance whereas Candy Ride favors his broodmare sire Candy Stripes, a son of Blushing Groom (Fr). All that said, this tribe expresses itself on the chart in a way that roughly corresponds to their racing aptitudes–powerful, but not overpowered to be considered one-dimensional speedballs.

Except for one representative of Malibu Moon, the A.P. Indy cluster is much more uniform in biomechanical expression–it’s a clear reflection of the fact that breeders wanted to bring more speed in the broodmares to him and his sons and the result is a virtual uniform phenotypical identity.

Smart Strike’s crowd may appear to be all over the place but in some respects it’s actually reflective of what a Phenotype target would look like for his sire Mr. Prospector and his more accomplished sons–some with almost unbalanced power and others more blended with stride factors. We find this intriguing and if Curlin and Lookin At Lucky can continue to throw out high-class colts, we might be on the verge of a line being solidified.

So, which Freshmen sires do we like? Not so fast, please. We have not been able to inspect a whole lot of this crowd because of the pandemic, and we will need to deploy our troops widely in the upcoming months to hone our algorithmic projections. In addition, there are some very nice prospects with first yearlings whose sires are by Into Mischief (Practical Joke), Ghostzapper (Shaman Ghost), Medaglia d’Oro (Astern {Aus}), Put It Back (Bal a Bali {Brz}), Quality Road (Blofeld, Hootenanny and Klimt) and War Front (War Correspondent).

Like Les Keiter, we’ll be watching for any shifts in the tide.

(Bob Fierro is a partner with Jay Kilgore and Frank Mitchell in DataTrack International, biomechanical consultants and developers of BreezeFigs. He can be reached a bbfq@earthlink.net).

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