Handicapping the Kentucky Derby Preps: Holy Bull, Robert B. Lewis, Southwest & Withers

TDN's Senior Racing Editor Steve Sherack provides his analysis for Saturday's quartet of GI Kentucky Derby prep races.

GIII Holy Bull S. – Last year's jaw-dropping GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner and 'TDN Rising Star' Fierceness (City of Light) finds a perfect landing spot to launch his sophomore season versus seven overmatched rivals. Not worth trying to beat him here, even if he's closer to 1-9 than his 3-5 morning-line quote.

I can't see him defeating the recently crowned 2023 champion 2-year-old, but how about Domestic Product (Practical Joke) to complete a cold exacta at a price? His maiden win two starts back in his two-turn debut at Aqueduct last fall was impressive enough to give him a pass for his no-show seventh in the GII Remsen S. in the mud last out. Training well for Chad Brown and the blinkers come off for this. Selection: #7 Fierceness (3-5).

GIII Southwest S. – Just couldn't resist taking a swing on a longshot closer in a wide-open race that seems destined for a pace meltdown. The lightly raced Common Defense (Karakontie {Jpn}) ran very well to finish second behind his Ken McPeek-trained stablemate and subsequent GIII Lecomte S. longshot third Lat Long (Liam's Map) in his Oaklawn Park course-and-distance debut Dec. 17. He ran to the money and kicked home beautifully in Oaklawn's short stretch to graduate next out going a mile Jan. 13 and was a supplemental entry here. Common Defense is bred to run all day (his third dam is GISW Aldiza) and he should offer plenty of value in by far the best wagering event of the four prep races on tap Saturday.

Last out stretch-running GIII Street Sense S. winner Liberal Arts (Arrogate) also makes plenty of sense here; and will also be using wise-guy horse Awesome Road (Quality Road) despite the very tough draw. Selection: #8 Common Defense (15-1).

GIII Robert B. Lewis S.'TDN Rising Star' Nysos (Nyquist) looked like a complete monster in his first two starts sprinting for Bob Baffert last term, including a runaway stalk-and-pounce win in the seven-furlong GIII Bob Hope S. last out Nov. 19. No reason to think anything can get near him here either in his first try off the bench in this first test around two turns. Good luck seeing anything near that 4-5 morning-line quote! Selection: #6 Nysos (4-5).

GIII Withers S.Speed Runner (Gun Runner), a useful third going seven furlongs on debut, took a major step forward with a game maiden victory at the Big A over this same course and distance for Todd Pletcher while making his route debut last time Dec. 8. The half-brother to GI Blue Grass S. winner and GI Belmont S. third Brilliant Speed (Dynaformer) should work out an ideal trip beneath Jose Lezcano from his rail draw.

Deserving favorite Lightline (City of Light), a rallying second from far back behind unbeaten Southwest contender Carbone (Mitole) going a mile at Oaklawn, should appreciate the additional real estate for Brad Cox.

Uncle Heavy (Social Inclusion) is an interesting longshot to consider for underneath shipping in off a better-than-it-looks win in the Wait For It S. versus state-breds at Parx. Selection: #1 Speed Runner (5-1).

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Busy Weekend For Derby Preps on Both Coasts

Saturday's graded stakes races stretch out from coast to coast and feature significant GI Kentucky Derby implications, but not entirely for the reasons we've come to expect. In South Florida, it is business as usual for the Derby preps while on the West Coast all things Kentucky Derby took an unprecedented turn.

On the heels of a very successful GI Pegasus World Cup weekend, Gulfstream Park offers a tremendous card with five graded races, including the 34th running of the GIII Holy Bull S. named for the Hall of Famer and 1994 Horse of the Year, who won that year's GI Florida Derby. Forty Kentucky Derby points are on the line with the winner collecting the lion's share.

Cyclone Mischief (Into Mischief) enters off a 5 3/4-length allowance romp at a mile over this surface Jan. 8. The $450,000 KEESEP yearling purchase is out of a half to GSW Suddenbreakingnews (Mineshaft) and hails from the female family of MGIW Composure (Touch Gold).

“I think he's one of the best 3-year-olds in the country, and he's training like one,” trainer Dale Romans said. “There are a lot of good horses out there, but we're in a good spot right now.”

Legacy Isle (Shackleford) would be undefeated and the only stakes winner so far of the bunch after wiring the Mucho Macho Man S. on New Year's Day, but was disqualified for bothering a rival in the lane and was placed second.

Hall of Fame conditioner Bill Mott entered two in the Holy Bull, Rocket Can (Into Mischief) and Shadow Dragon (Army Mule).

The GIII Claiborne Swale S. doesn't offer any Derby points and isn't considered a Derby prep, but it is named after the 1984 Derby winner and Hall of Famer who died suddenly eight days after the GI Belmont S.

The streaking Super Chow (Lord Nelson) drew the outside in the six-runner test, which will be contested at seven furlongs. The winner of five of his six career races is coming off three straight listed stakes wins and makes a jump back into graded company. He broke his maiden in his debut July 2 at Gulfstream and was third in the GII Saratoga Special S. before shipping back to Florida to collect his last three wins.

“He's in his best shape ever,” trainer Jorge Delgado said. “He's been maturing race to race. He's been showing a lot of class. From race to race, he's a more professional horse. He's becoming a man.”

Not to be overshadowed by the boys, 10 fillies are set to race seven-eighths on the main track in the GIII Forward Gal S.

Atomically (Girvin) is the likely favorite in her first start since an even seventh-place finish in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Nov. 4. It was her first start for trainer Todd Pletcher after being sold privately to a group headed by Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners after winning the Florida Sire My Dear Girl S. over the Gulfstream Park main track Oct. 1.

Ginger Brew S. winner Cairo Consort (Cairo Prince) is the 2-1 morning-line favorite against eight other sophomore turf fillies in the 1 1/16-mile GIII Sweetest Chant S. The Todd Pletcher-trained filly won Woodbine's Catch A Glimpse S., was second in the GI Natalma S. and third in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. This race will be her first start beyond a mile.

Only four will line up in the GIII Robert B. Lewis S., a 1 1/16-mile test offering 41 Road to the Derby points to the top-four finishers on a 20-8-6-4-2 scale. This is where the race's Kentucky Derby implications take a turn. Each of the four runners are trained by a single trainer and that trainer–currently–is forbidden from participating in racing at Churchill Downs.

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who has saddled a record 10 winners of the Robert B. Lewis–including the last four in a row–sat in a Louisville courtroom for two days this week. His team of attorneys is seeking an injunction against his two-year ban from competing at Churchill Downs following Medina Spirit's post-race positive for the prohibited steroid betamethasone after crossing the wire first in the 2021 Derby. Medina Spirit also won the 2021 Lewis.

Arabian Lion (Justify) will lead his stablemates. The $600,000 OBSAPR 2-year-old was a dismal fifth in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity Dec. 17 at odds of 2-5 but has been working lights out for his return here.

Newgate (Into Mischief) hasn't reached the winner's circle since breaking his maiden at Del Mar but was a short second in the GIII Sham S. a month ago. The $850,000 KEESEP yearling was also second to last week's GIII San Vicente S. winner and stablemate Havnameltdown (Uncaptured) in the GIII Bob Hope S. at Del Mar Nov. 20. Maiden winner Hard To Figure (Hard Spun) and maiden Worcester (Empire Maker) round out the Baffert quartet.

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Baffert Has 14 Of 16 Nominees In Robert B. Lewis

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert will attack next Saturday's GIII Robert B. Lewis S. at Santa Anita with quality and an awful lot of quantity. The nominees for the $200,000 race were released Saturday and 14 of the 16 nominated for the race hail from the Baffert stable.

This Lewis will be run just six days after the GII San Vicente S. In that race, also for 3-year-olds, Baffert trains four of the five starters. The lone horse to take on Baffert in the San Vicente will be 20-1 shot Man Child (Creative Cause) from the barn of Ryan Hanson.

All four of Baffert's San Vicente starters are nominated for the Robert Lewis, but that still leaves 10 potential starters. Among the top names for the Lewis are the Baffert trio of Reincarnate (Good Magic), Newgate (Into Mischief) and National Treasure (Quality Road), who finished one-two-three in the GIII Sham S.

Baffert will come into the Lewis having won the race four straight years and 10 times overall.

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Baffert Duo Spielberg, Medina Spirit Take On Competitive Field In Bob Lewis

Although Bob Baffert will be packing a heavy one-two punch with Spielberg and Medina Spirit, Saturday's Grade 3, $100,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes has attracted a very competitive field of eight sophomores, with no clear-cut standout. To be contested at a mile and one sixteenth over Santa Anita's main track, the Lewis is a key prep to the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 3. Originally titled the Santa Catalina, the Lewis will be run for the 83rd time on Saturday.

Named in honor of the prominent late owner and philanthropist Robert B. Lewis, who along with his wife Beverly, owned two Kentucky Derby winners, Silver Charm in 1997 and Charismatic in 1999, the Lewis winner will receive 10 Kentucky Derby qualifying points. The second place finisher will receive four, third place nets two points and the fourth place finisher will get one point.

Spielberg comes off a gutty nose victory at the same distance in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity on Dec. 19, which was his sixth career start. The win no doubt took on added luster when the runner-up, Doug O'Neill's The Great One, came back to demolish a field of maidens by 14 lengths this past Saturday.

Purchased for $1 million as a Keeneland September Yearling, Spielberg, a chestnut colt by Union Rags, out of the Smart Strike mare Miss Squeal, has been favored in four of his six starts and he'll be making his fifth graded stakes appearance. Owned by SF Racing, LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, LLC, Golconda Stables, Siena Farm, LLC and Robert Masterson, Spielberg will be ridden back by Flavien Prat and be trying to provide Baffert with his third consecutive Lewis win and his record ninth overall.

A first-out maiden winner going 5 ½ furlongs at Los Alamitos Dec. 11, Medina Spirit far outran his 9-1 odds in finishing a fast closing second, beaten three quarters of a length by his highly regarded stablemate Life Is Good in the G1 Sham Stakes going one mile on Jan. 2. Owned by Zedan Racing Stables, Inc., Medina Spirit, a Florida-bred colt by the Giant's Causeway stallion Protonico, was purchased for a modest $35,000 at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Company July 2-Year-Olds and Horses of Racing Age Sale, 2020.

Second the entire trip in the Sham, Medina Spirit hit his best stride late and earned a lofty 99 Beyer Speed figure in the process. He'll be ridden back by Abel Cedillo, who comes of a fabulous three-day week at Santa Anita in which he posted nine wins.

Dismissed at 94-1, Doug O'Neill's Hot Rod Charlie made the lead a furlong from home and finished second, beaten three quarters of a length in the Grade I Breeders' Cup Juvenile on Nov. 6 at Keeneland, earning a 94 Beyer. A one mile maiden winner here two starts back on Oct. 2, this colt by Oxbow is vastly improved, has been training impressively and will get the first time services of Joel Rosario. Owned by Roadrunner Racing, Boat Racing, LLC and Strauss Bros Racing, Hot Rod Charlie closed much ground at Keeneland and will hope to be rolling late with plenty of pace to exploit in the Lewis.

A $500,000 Keeneland September Yearling purchase, C R K Stable's Parnelli could likely pose significant trouble for anyone with front-running aspirations. A galloping 5 ¾ one mile maiden winner two starts back at Del Mar Nov. 28, this colt by Quality Road was a bit rank while under restraint early in the Sham on Jan. 2 and was never a factor thereafter. With a win, three seconds and a third, Parnelli, who is trained by John Shirreffs, will be ridden for the first time by Umberto Rispoli.

Owned by Reddam Racing, LLC and trained by Doug O'Neill, Wipe the Slate could also add plenty of fuel to the early pace fire, as he comes off an impressive 3 ¼ length maiden win going seven furlongs here on Dec. 26. A Kentucky-bred colt by Reddam's 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist, Wipe the Slate looms a legitimate contender in his third start with Mario Gutierrez riding back.

THE GRADE III ROBERT B. LEWIS STAKES WITH JOCKEYS & WEIGHTS IN POST POSITION ORDER

Race 7 of 8 Approximate post time 3:30 p.m. PT

  1. Medina Spirit—Abel Cedillo—120
  2. Rombauer—Mike Smith—120
  3. Parnelli—Umberto Rispoli—120
  4. Hot Rod Charlie—Joel Rosario—20
  5. Roman Centurian—Juan Hernandez—120
  6. Waspirant—Ricardo Gonzalez—120
  7. Wipe the Slate—Mario Gutierrez–120
  8. Spielberg—Flavien Prat—124

First post time for an eight-race card on Saturday is at 12:30 p.m. All of Santa Anita's races are offered free of charge at santaanita.com/live and fans can watch and wager at 1st.com/Bet.

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