road to the kentucky derby | Horse Racing Free Tips

TVG Plans Expanded Coverage Of Coast-To-Coast Sophomore Prep Races

TVG's Road to the Triple Crown and Kentucky Oaks presented by Spendthrift Farm will feature prep races from across the country this weekend with full coverage from Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita highlighted by the $250,000 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and the $200,000 Robert B. Lewis (G3) along with the $250,000 Withers Stakes (G3) from Aqueduct.

There will be expanded coverage at Gulfstream Park presented by Runhappy with expert analysis and interviews from Todd Schrupp, Larry Collmus, Britney Eurton, Joaquin Jaime and Andi Biancone. The twelve-race card includes five stakes races with the $250,000 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) the main event with 10-4-3-1 Kentucky Derby points on the line. The race has drawn a field of nine with Mo Donegal tabbed as the morning line favorite at odds of 3-1 for trainer Todd Pletcher. Purchased for $250,000 by Donegal Racing, the bay son of Uncle Mo ended his juvenile campaign with a win in the Remsen Stakes (G2) and will have Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the irons.

Santa Anita has a stakes-laden weekend of action on tap and Christina Blacker, Mike Joyce, Simon Bray, Scott Hazelton and Kurt Hoover will be trackside with exclusive interviews and insights. On Saturday, the $200,000 San Pasqual Stakes (G2) highlights a nine-race card that includes two additional graded stakes – the $100,000 Thunder Road Stakes (G3) and the $200,000 Santa Monica Stakes (G3). In the San Pasqual Stakes (G2), the 2021 winner Express Train will take on five rivals as he tries for a repeat for trainer John Shirreffs.

On Sunday, the road to the Kentucky Derby runs through California with the $200,000 Robert B. Lewis (G3) featuring a field of five contenders. Happy Jack will step up to stakes company for trainer Doug O'Neill after breaking his maiden in January at Santa Anita. The Calumet Farm homebred will have Abel Cedillo aboard.

TVG will also be broadcasting the $250,000 Withers Stakes (G3) from Aqueduct which offers up 10-4-3-1 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top four finishers.

In addition to racing from Gulfstream and Santa Anita, TVG will be featuring racing from Oaklawn, Tampa Bay Downs, Gulfstream Park, Aqueduct and more. Fans can tune in on TVG, TVG2 and the Watch TVG app which is available on Amazon Fire, Roku and connected Apple TV devices.

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Messier Out To Make Amends In Sunday’s Bob Lewis Stakes

Second at 1-2 in his most recent stakes assignment, Messier will be out to make amends and stamp himself an “A-List” Derby hopeful as he heads a field of five sophomores going 1 1/16 miles in Sunday's Grade 3, $200,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita.

An important prep on the road to both the Santa Anita and Kentucky Derbies, the Lewis will provide the winner with 10 Kentucky Derby qualifying points and the second, third and fourth place finishers with four, two and one point respectively. However, the Bob Baffert-trained colt is not eligible for those points due to Churchill Downs' ban of the Hall of Fame trainer.

A chestnut colt by Empire Maker, Messier, an impressive six furlong maiden winner here three starts back on Oct. 22, then galloped to a 3 ½ length score going seven furlongs in the G3 Bob Hope Stakes at Del Mar on Nov. 14. Subsequently dispatched at 1-2 in the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity at a mile and one sixteenth, he appeared to have the race won three sixteenths of a mile out, but the Doug O'Neill-trained Slow Down Andy, although racing erratically, came back on to Messier's outside to register a one length win.

Although beaten in his first two turn assignment, Messier, who has been favored in all four of his starts, appeared undaunted, as he galloped out strongly and in front around the Clubhouse turn at Los Alamitos. Trained by Baffert and owned by SF Racing, LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, et al, Messier is well seasoned, with two wins and as many seconds from four starts. Ridden by Flavien Prat in his last three starts, he'll be handled for the first time by John Velazquez in the Lewis.

Messier's primary rival certainly appears to be the Simon Callaghan-trained Sir London, who crushed four rivals in breaking his maiden by 10 lengths as the 1-5 favorite on Dec. 4 at Los Alamitos. Second in a pair of maiden sprints on Oct. 3 at Santa Anita and Nov. 13 at Del Mar, Sir London led every step of the way in breaking his maiden at a flat mile Dec. 4 and seems very well spotted in Saturday's Lewis as he retains the services of Flavien Prat.

A $700,000 2-year-old in training sale purchase in May of last year, Sir London is by Malibu Moon and is owned by AMO Racing USA and Qatar Racing Limited. Heavily favored in his last two starts, he also brings a last-out Beyer Speed Figure of 80 to the Lewis, which compares favorably with Messier's 83 Beyer, which he earned in finishing second in the Los Al Futurity.

Campaigned on grass in his last four starts, Kretz Racing's Cabo Spirit rallied for an impressive a 1 ¼ length win in the one mile turf Eddie Logan Stakes here on Jan. 2, an effort that was flattered by runner-up Maglev's victory on turf here Sunday in the ungraded Baffle Stakes. Trained by George Papaprodromou, Cabo Spirit is by Pioneerof the Nile and fetched $575,000 at an Ocala, Fla. 2-year-old in training sale last April. Winless in his first three starts on dirt, Cabo Spirit has won two out of his last four starts on turf and his connections are hoping that with seasoning, he can transfer that solid recent form to the main track on Sunday with regular rider Victor Espinoza back aboard.

Dismissed in his six furlong debut at 24-1 here on Jan. 22, Doug O'Neill's Happy Jack won like a horse that should relish a route of ground. Shuffled back around the turn, he split horses three sixteenths out and went to easily defeat Baffert's favored Bletchley Park and galloped out impressively as well. Owned and bred by Calumet Farm, Happy Jack is by Oxbow and will be ridden back by Abel Cedillo.

THE GRADE 3 ROBERT B. LEWIS WITH JOCKEYS & WEIGHTS IN POST POSITION ORDER

Race 8 of 9 Approximate post time 4 p.m. PT

Messier—John Velazquez—120
Sir London—Flavien Prat—120
Cabo Spirit—Victor Espinoza—124
Wharton—Juan Hernandez—120
Happy Jack—Abel Cedillo–120

First post time for a nine-race program, which will also include the Grade III, $200,000 Las Virgenes Stakes, is at 12:30 p.m. with admission gates opening at 10:30 a.m.

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Equibase Analysis: Galt, Simplification Most Likely Upsetters In Holy Bull Field

This Saturday's Grade 3, $250,000 Holy Bull Stakes is the first of three significant stakes races for newly turned 3-year-olds in South Florida. Nine have signed on for this race and the best of them will likely run four weeks from now in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, hoping to go on to the Florida Derby in April and then onto the Kentucky Derby.

Leading the field in accomplishments is Mo Donegal, last seen two months ago when victorious in the G2 Remsen Stakes. Simplification is another stakes winner, having captured the Mucho Macho Man Stakes easily by four lengths on New Year's Day. Tiz the Bomb finished fast from 12th to get second when last seen in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and won his only previous dirt route by a whopping 14 lengths. Cajun's Magic returns from more than four months on the bench following a win in the FTBOA Florida Sire Dr. Fager Stakes then runner-up finishes in two other stakes races restricted to horses bred in Florida. Giant Game finished third in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile on the same day Tiz the Bomb ran in the Juvenile Turf and appears to fit with these, as does G2 Kentucky Jockey Club third place finisher White Abarrio. Then there's a pair of recent impressive maiden winners in Spin Wheel and Galt, the former having rallied from last of 12 to win by a nose and the latter having drawn off easily by four lengths when last seen. Eloquist rounds out the field. He finished a well-beaten fifth in the Remsen and then last of six in an allowance race last month at Gulfstream Park.

Main Win Contenders:

Although Galt just earned his first win in his most recent start, the third of his career, he will be my top pick, and a strong one at that, in this year's Holy Bull Stakes. There are many reasons to think this son of Medaglia d'Oro can win, the first of which is that he is trained by Bill Mott, who has an uncanny ability to know when his recently turned 3-year-olds are the right caliber to compete in Road to the Derby stakes races. When taking blinkers off and running in a dirt route for the first time on Dec. 26, Galt ran tremendously better than he had in his two prior starts. Drawing the same rail position he gets for the Holy Bull, Galt saved ground then came around a pair of runners to rally into a very slow pace in the stretch before drawing off decisively.

Admittedly, the 84 Equibase® Speed Figure isn't nearly as fast as the 93 figure likely favorite Mo Donegal earned last December winning the Remsen Stakes, but it was a big improvement off his previous two races. As he's making his second start following 2 1/2 months off, Galt is going to move up considerably off the effort. Back to Mott's record 3-year-olds early in the year coming off maiden wins and running in stakes races, the Hall-of-Fame trainer saddled Tacitus to win the 2019 Tampa Bay Derby off a maiden win, saddled Modernist to win the 2020 Risen Star Stakes off a maiden win, saddled Candy Man Rocket to win the 2021 Sam F. Davis Stakes off a maiden win, and saddled Hofburg to a runner-up finish in the 2018 Florida Derby.

Another reason I expect Galt to run very well in a graded stakes race is he is a full brother to two-time Champion Songbird, winner of $4.6 million and nine consecutive graded stakes around two turns in her three year old campaign. As the reason for the big turnaround in form on Dec. 26 is easily identifiable (blinkers off) and as he won without Lasix so racing without the medication is not an issue here, I expect Galt to post the mild upset and throw his name in the ring as a strong contender on the Road to the Derby, staring in the Holy Bull Stakes.

However, in order to win, Galt is going to have to run down Simplification, who enters the race off a wire-to-wire win in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes on New Year's Day with a field high 98 figure. Two races before that, Simplification won a six furlong sprint by a whopping 16 and three-quarter lengths with a 99 figure. Javier Castellano rode the colt to his last win and will be in the saddle again in the Holy Bull. I have no concern about the fact that Simplification is trying two-turns for the first time as (per Race Lens) relatively new sire Not This Time has had six of 18 of his sons or daughters win two-turn races to date, including recent Lecomte Stakes runner-up Epicenter, who had won the Gun Runner Stakes prior to that. As such, Simplification has a big chance to get out on an easy lead and get very brave just as he did last month in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, and no matter how successful Galt might be in closing into a slow pace as he was in his victory at the end of December, it may be too tall of an order in this situation.

Although most of the others have credentials to be competitive, with the exception of Eloquist, who is overmatched, they are all giving away some physical edge to Galt and Simplification. For example, Mo Donegal has been away from the races since Dec. 4, and a Race Lens query reveals trainer Todd Pletcher possesses a four for 30 record with 3-year-olds in dirt route stakes over the last five years coming back from such a layoff. The same can be said for Tiz the Bomb, who needed a sprint prep race last spring before winning a route.

The rest of the field, all who have the ability to compete effectively in this race, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Cajun's Magic (94), Giant Game (90), Eloquist (74), Mo Donegal (93), Spin Wheel (86), Tiz the Bomb (109 on turf) and White Abarrio (94).

Win Contenders, with an equal probability to win at about 33 percent (2 to 1)
Galt
Simplification

Holy Bull Stakes – Grade 3
Race 11 at Gulfstream Park
Saturday, February 5 – Post Time 5:10 PM E.T.
One and One Sixteenth Miles
Three Year Olds
Purse: $250,000

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Brown: ‘Longer Distance’ Of Risen Star Should Play To Zandon’s Strengths

Chad Brown-trained Triple Crown hopeful Zandon will make his next start in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes on Feb. 19 at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans, La., reports the Daily Racing Form. The 3-year-old son of Upstart, second by a nose in the G2 Remsen last out, has been working steadily at Payson Park in Indiantown, Fla. since late December.

“We went back and forth on whether to start out with him here,” Brown told DRF, referring to the G3 Holy Bull this Saturday at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Fla. “But we prefer the longer distance of the Risen Star, and it has more points.”

The Holy Bull is run at 1 1/16 miles, and offers 10 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby to the winner, while the Risen Star is held over 1 1/8 miles and offers 50 points.

Meanwhile, his Grade 1-winning stablemate Jack Christopher (Munnings) has not yet made it back to the work tab after being scratched from the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and later undergoing surgery to repair a shin issue.

“He is back galloping, and we're happy about that, but we are certainly behind with him,” Brown told DRF. “We're just going to have to take it week to week with him. We are not going to rush the horse just to make the Derby. The owners are completely on board with that.”