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Equibase Analysis: Mott Holding A Pair Of Aces In Sam F. Davis

This Saturday's Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes is the local prep race for the Tampa Bay Derby four weeks from today and brings together a field of 12 (plus one also-eligible) attempting to become one of the betting favorites going into that race as well as to earn points on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby.”

Only five of the 13 have ever run in stakes races. Of those, Nova Rags is one of two which are stakes winners, having won the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs last month around one turn, not the two-turn trip like the Sam F. Davis. Boca Boy is another with a stakes win, that coming last September in the In Reality Stakes. He is returning from a four and one-half month layoff since that race.

Smiley Sobotka finished second in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall around two-turns but is returning to the races following more than two months off and facing many who have run more recently. Known Agenda finished third in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes last December and is yet another coming into the race off a layoff. Runway Magic finished third in the Limehouse Stakes last month at Gulfstream Park, a one-turn race and rounds out those which have competed in stakes before today.

Then there is a trio of recent winners on dirt who could step up to the task. This trio includes local winner Ricochet, impressive nine length winner Candy Man Rocket and Hidden Stash, who is another coming back from more than three months off. Millean won his most recent race last month but in a maiden claiming race so appears a bit overmatched. Joe Man Joe and Lucky Law finished second and first, respectively, in their most recent starts. Both were around two-turns but were on turf so it remains to be seen if they can transfer that form to dirt and improve to be competitive in a stakes as well. Last Investment and also-eligible Tiz Tact Toe round out the field as horses who have yet to break their maidens in seven combined starts.

Candy Man Rocket gets slight preference among three main win contenders in this year's Sam F. Davis Stakes, although he has never raced around two turns and has only a maiden win to his credit. I think this colt has tremendous upside based on earning a field high 98 Equibase Speed Figure in his nine length maiden win last month sprinting at Gulfstream Park. Considering this will be only his third career start, Candy Man Rocket has every right to continue to improve and that means his opponents would have to improve doubly in order to beat him even if he simply repeats the effort. There is little doubt Candy Man Rocket can do just that around two-turns as a son of Candy Ride, whose has had 12 of his 34 foals win stakes races for three year olds over the last five years. Some of those are big names such as Vekoma and Gun Runner. Then there's the prowess his Hall-of-Fame trainer has in recognizing talent. Over the last five years, when trainer Bill Mott raises a horse off a maiden win to a stakes race, his charges have finished first or second in 10 of 20 tries. All those factors lead me to believe Candy Man Rocket can pull off the upset in this race.

Mott also saddles Nova Rags, one of just two stakes winners in the field. Nova Rags returned from two months off last month and won the Pasco Stakes at seven furlongs. Although the 85 is well behind the 98 figure his stablemate earned one week earlier, Nova Rags has every right to improve second off the layoff and around two turns. Sired by 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags, Nova Rags is out of the Smart Strike mare Wishful Splendor, whose sons and daughters have won 17 of 73 dirt route races, including 2011 Indiana Oaks winner Juanita. To be ridden by Tampa Bay Downs leading jockey Sammy Camacho, Nova Rags can take a big step forward in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and toss his name into the ring as a top three year old on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Ricochet is a two-turn winner at Tampa, a claim none of the other 12 horses in this race can make. Stretched out to two-turns for the first time at the end of November, Ricochet opened up by two and one-half lengths in the stretch only to be nailed right on the wire by a head. Improving to a career-best 94 figure which is the second best in the field by far, Ricochet made short work of the field in December when winning by eight lengths. On a pattern for another step forward, if Candy Man Rocket does not improve as expected, Ricochet would be no surprise winning this race.

After that group of three, there are four more which deserve honorable mention – Hidden Stash, Known Agenda, Lucky Law and Smiley Sobotka, each having good reasons to consider them as contenders but each also with slight question marks. Hidden Stash improved to a career best 89 figure when last seen at the end of November, bringing his record around two-turns to a perfect two-for-two. However, coming back from two months off he would need to be in tip-top shape to pick up where he left off. Known Agenda won a nine furlong race in November, the second start of his career, earning an 86 figure in the process. He improved to 88 although a well-beaten third in the Remsen Stakes in December and if this was his second start off a layoff, not his first, I think he would be a top contender. Similarly, Smiley Sobotka improved nicely in his first route and second career start in October to win then finished second of nine in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (with a 90 figure) after opening up by a couple of lengths with an eighth of a mile to go. He's been working fast but there is always the concern about needing a race before running well enough to win around two turns off a layoff. Lucky Law stretched out to two turns off a runner-up effort and won nicely last month. Both races were on turf so he would need to transfer that form to dirt and improve off the 83 figure earned in that last start. However, trainer Patrick Biancone successfully transitioned horses to dirt on the Road to the Derby last year with both Ete Indien and Sole Volante.

The rest of the field, all who have the ability to compete effectively in this race, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Boca Boy (78), Joe Man Joe (89), Millean (84), Last Investment (81), Tiz Tact Toe (78) and Runway Magic (92).

Win Contenders, in probability order:
Candy Man Rocket
Nova Rags
Ricochet

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Nova Rags, Candy Man Rocket Give Mott One-Two Punch In Sam F. Davis Stakes

Nova Rags, who won the Pasco Stakes on Jan. 16, and Candy Man Rocket, a runaway winner of a maiden special weight sprint on Jan. 9 at Gulfstream, give Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott a formidable pair of contenders in Saturday's Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes, the main event of Festival Preview Day 41 Presented by Lambholm South at Tampa Bay Downs.

Nova Rags will again be ridden by leading Oldsmar jockey Samy Camacho. Mott has named Junior Alvarado to ride Candy Man Rocket. The 41st running of the mile-and-a-sixteenth race on the main track, which awards “Road to the Kentucky Derby” qualifying points to the first four finishers on a 10-4-2-1 scale, has drawn an overflow field of 13 3-year-olds, with maiden Tiz Tact Toe on the also-eligible list.

Mott may have rival trainer Todd Pletcher to beat. Pletcher, who has won a record six Sam F. Davis Stakes, will go for No. 7 with Donegal Racing's colt Millean and St. Elias Stables' Known Agenda, who finished third in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes on Dec. 5 at Aqueduct.

The Sam F. Davis, scheduled as the 11th race on a 12-race card beginning at 11:50 a.m., is one of four stakes offering an aggregate $750,000 in stakes purse money.

Saturday's 35th running of the Grade 3, $175,000 Tampa Bay Stakes, for horses 4-years-old-and-upward going a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the turf, is scheduled as the eighth race. A field of 12 older horses is expected, headed by 4-year-old gelding Sole Volante, last year's Sam F. Davis Stakes winner, and Grade 2-winning 4-year-old colt Fancy Liquor.

Sole Volante is trained by Patrick Biancone and will be ridden by Robby Albarado. Fancy Liquor is trained by Michael Maker and will have Hector Diaz, Jr., in the saddle.

The 22nd edition of the Grade 3, $175,000 Lambholm South Endeavour Stakes, for fillies and mares 4-and-upward racing a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the turf, has attracted eight entries and is scheduled as the 10th race. Heading the field are 4-year-old filly New York Girl, an Irish-bred who won her first start in the United States on Dec. 31 at Gulfstream, and Counterparty Risk, a game second in the Lady of Shamrock Stakes on Dec. 26 at Santa Anita.

New York Girl is trained by Mott and will be ridden by Junior Alvarado. Chad Brown conditions Counterparty Risk, who will be ridden by John Velazquez.

The other stakes is the 41st running of the $150,000 Suncoast Stakes for 3-year-old fillies traveling a mile-and-40-yards on the main track. The Suncoast, which lured 10 entries, is the ninth race on the card.

Among the likely contenders are Special Princess, who dead-heated for victory in the Gasparilla Stakes here on Jan. 16, and Feeling Mischief, who captured the Sandpiper Stakes here on Dec. 5 before settling for third in the Gasparilla.

Ademar Santos will ride Special Princess for trainer Walter Woodard. Jesus Castanon will be aboard Feeling Mischief for trainer Michael Campbell. Another probable contender is trainer Rodolphe Brisset's Gulf Coast, to be ridden by Julien Leparoux.

Here is the full field for the Sam F. Davis Stakes in post position order, followed by trainer and jockey:

1. Hidden Stash, Victoria Oliver, Hector Diaz, Jr. 2. Joe Man Joe, David Fisher, Huber Villa-Gomez. 3. Known Agenda, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez. 4. Millean, Todd Pletcher, Roberto Alvarado, Jr. 5. Smiley Sobotka, Dale Romans, Daniel Centeno. 6. Runway Magic, George “Rusty” Arnold, II, Julien Leparoux. 7. Boca Boy, Cheryl Winebaugh, Antonio Gallardo. 8. Nova Rags, Bill Mott, Samy Camacho. 9. Candy Man Rocket, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado. 10. Ricochet, Kelsey Danner, Jesus Castanon. 11. Lucky Law, Patrick Biancone, Robby Albarado. 12. Last Investment, Stacy Lane Hendry, Ademar Santos. 13 (also eligible, draws in if there is a late scratch): Tiz Tact Toe, Robert B. Hess, Jr., Alonso Quinonez.

Here is the full field for the Tampa Bay Stakes in post position order, followed by trainer and jockey:

1. Atone, Eoin Harty, Tomas Mejia. 2. Admission Office, Brian Lynch, Julien Leparoux. 3. Get Smokin, Thomas Bush, Julien Leparoux. 4. Talk Or Listen, Arnaud Delacour, Daniel Centeno. 5. Delaware, Chad Brown, Antonio Gallardo. 6. Proven Strategies, Mark Casse, Jose Ferrer. 7. By Your Side, Michael Maker, Jesus Castanon. 8. Eons, Arnaud Delacour, Samy Camacho. 9. Sole Volante, Patrick Biancone, Robby Albarado. 10. Fancy Liquor, Michael Maker, Hector Diaz, Jr. 11. Armistice Day, Barbara Minshall, Roberto Alvarado, Jr. 12. Greyes Creek, Chad Brown, John Velazquez.

Here is the full field for the Lambholm South Endeavour Stakes in post position order, followed by trainer and jockey:

1. Margaret's Joy, Michelle Nihei, Ronnie Allen, Jr. 2. Logic N Reason, Christophe Clement, Samy Camacho. 3. No Mercey Percy, Rafael Schistl, Ademar Santos. 4. Eres Tu (main track only), Arnaud Delacour, Samy Camacho. 5. Counterparty Risk, Chad Brown, John Velazquez. 6. New York Girl, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado. 7. Kelsey's Cross, Patrick Biancone, Robby Albarado. 8. Irony of Reality, Ron G. Potts, Huber Villa-Gomez.

Here is the full field for the Suncoast Stakes in post position order, followed by trainer and jockey:

1. Roll Up Mo Money, Ken McPeek, Samy Camacho. 2. Feeling Mischief, Michael Campbell, Jesus Castanon. 3. Jade Empress, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado. 4. Curlin's Catch, Mark Casse, Antonio Gallardo. 5. Honorifique, Eddie Kenneally, John Velazquez. 6. Scenic Overlook, Eoin Harty, Alonso Quinonez. 7. Gulf Coast, Rodolphe Brisset, Julien Leparoux. 8. Be Sneaky, Arnaud Delacour, Hector Diaz, Jr. 9. Il Malocchio, Ken McPeek, Robby Albarado. 10. Special Princess, Walter Woodard, Ademar Santos.

Due to COVID-19 restrictions, Tampa Bay Downs is limiting general-admission attendance for the Festival Preview Day 41 Presented by Lambholm South card to 2,500 spectators. Tickets, which are $10 each plus a service fee, are being sold online through Eventbrite.com and at the program stands.

Horsemen, box-seat holders and season-ticket holders do not need to purchase tickets, but must present their passes at the gate to gain admittance.

Seating will be available on a first-come, first-serve basis unless patrons have prior arrangements in the Skye Terrace Dining Room, Sports Gallery, Clubhouse Carrels or Legends Bar, but the purchase of a general-admission ticket is still required to gain admittance.

The track is also selling a limited number of tables in the Backyard Picnic Area for $50 each plus a service fee; that price includes admission for six people.

Here is the link for Festival Preview Day 41 tickets and picnic-area seating:

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/festival-preview-day-41-presented-by-lambholm-south-tickets-135338604409

Everyone will be required to wear masks or face coverings and maintain appropriate social distancing.

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Maiden Winners Concert Tour, The Chosen Vron Head Field Of Six For San Vicente

A pair of impressive first time maiden winners, Bob Baffert's Concert Tour and Eric Kruljac's The Chosen Vron, head a field of six sophomores going seven furlongs in Saturday's Grade 2, $200,000 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita.

Under a snug hold early, Concert Tour could not have been any more impressive on Jan. 15, as he drew out to a 3 ½ length win going six furlongs in a manner that suggested he should relish more distance. By Street Sense out of the Tapit mare Purse Strings, this Gary and Mary West homebred colt appeared well within himself as the even money favorite and figures to again be a short price with Joel Rosario back aboard.

A California-bred gelding by Vronsky, The Chosen Vron was very quick from the gate in his 6 ½ furlong debut Dec. 27 and he was much the best among nine statebred rivals as the 2-1 favorite, winning off by 6 ¾ lengths under eastern-based John Velazquez.

Out of the Tiz Wonderful mare Tiz Molly, The Chosen Vron is owned by Eric Kruljac, Robert Fetkin, John Sondereker and Richard Thornburgh. Although impressive in his debut, he'll be facing much tougher with Mike Smith up.

Second to Concert Tour at odds of 3-1, Simon Callaghan's Mr. Impossible will hope to turn the tables in what will also be his second start. Although a non-threatening runner-up, he finished eight lengths clear of the third horse in his debut and will retain the services of Umberto Rispoli.

A Kentucky-bred colt by Munnings, out of the Shamardal mare Qaraaba, Mr. Impossible is owned by his breeder, Alice Bamford, and Michael Tabor.

The “other Baffert” in the San Vicente field is Freedom Fighter. Idle since breaking his maiden at first asking on Aug. 1, it's worth noting he was the heavy 1-2 favorite in a field of nine, showed good speed and prevailed in game fashion by a head. Owned by SF Racing, LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, LLC, Golconda Stables, Siena Farm, LLC and Robert Masterson, this colt by Violence has been training in solid fashion for his return with Drayden Van Dyke up.

Like The Chosen Vron, Reddam Racing's homebred Found My Ball is a California-bred stepping into open company. A runaway six length maiden going six furlongs in his second start on Jan. 22, this chestnut colt by Square Eddie, out of the Ten Most Wanted mare Silar Rules, will be ridden back by Mario Gutierrez.

An important prep to the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 3, the San Vicente will be run for the 79th time on Saturday. No points to the Kentucky Derby are offered in the seven-furlong contest, but it has been used as a precursor to Derby preps in the past.

THE GRADE 2 SAN VICENTE WITH JOCKEYS & WEIGHTS IN POST POSITION ORDER

Race 7 of 10 Approximate post time 3 p.m. PT

Freedom Fighter—Drayden Van Dyke–120
The Chosen Vron—Mike Smith—120
Mr. Impossible—Umberto Rispoli—120
Uncle Boogie—Abel Cedillo—120
Found My Ball—Mario Gutierrez—120
Concert Tour—Joel Rosario–120

Early first post time for a 10-race card on Saturday is at 12 noon. All of Santa Anita's races are available free of charge at santaanita.com/live and fans can watch and wager via 1st.com/Bet.

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Derby Prep: Pletcher-Trained Pair Face Off With Capo Kane In Withers

The Road to the Kentucky Derby in the Empire State resumes on Saturday when a field of nine sophomores assemble for the 147th running of the Grade 3, $250,000 Withers at Aqueduct Racetrack.

The nine-furlong event over the main track is the second local prep of the calendar year for the Grade 1, $3 million Kentucky Derby on May 1 at Churchill Downs, and awards the top-four finishers points according to a 10-4-2-1 scale.

Trainer Todd Pletcher will be packing a one-two punch in pursuit of a fourth Withers victory, sending out maiden-winners Overtook and Donegal Bay, both of which will be making their respective stakes debut.

Owned by Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable, Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier and Derrick Smith, Overtook graduated going a one-turn mile at Aqueduct on December 20. The son of multiple champion-producing sire Curlin was 10 lengths behind the pace before making a six-wide move around the far turn, making up considerable ground in the stretch to secure a two-length triumph while recording a 70 Beyer Speed Figure.

“There could be a good pace. Overtook wants to settle and make one run so we'll allow him to do that,” said Pletcher, who trained Withers winners Harlem Rocker (2008), Revolutionary (2013) and Far From Over (2015).

Overtook finished a distant third to stablemate and fellow Curlin offspring Known Agenda on Nov. 8 at the Big A in a nine-furlong maiden event. Known Agenda subsequently ran third in the Grade 2 Remsen and runner-up Greatest Honour was a next-out winner of the Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park.

Sporting blinkers in his first two career starts, Overtook raced without the hood in his maiden victory.

“I think he's learning. He's gained some confidence with the experience and we felt like the blinkers needed to come off,” Pletcher said. “He got a nice hot pace to run at which helped. He's an improving horse that is bred to get better with more distance and more time. We've seen him making progress throughout and fall and winter. This is a big step up, but hopefully he's up for it.”

The royally bred Overtook was purchased for $1 million from the 2019 Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

Jockey Manny Franco seeks his third Withers triumph when piloting Overtook from post 6.

Donegal Bay will be diving into deeper waters as he makes his two-turn debut.

Owned by Jerry Crawford's Donegal Racing, Donegal Bay finished sixth on debut going 6 ½ furlongs at Saratoga. He showed a different dimension in his subsequent start, notching a front-running victory by 4 ¼ lengths going a one-turn mile at Gulfstream Park on Dec. 12.

“I think it was the additional time, having a start under his belt as well as having some good works leading into that,” Pletcher said. “He also got a better start which a lot of horses do in their second race. He has a pretty high cruising speed. Pedigree-wise, he's bred to go that far. It's a big step up from a maiden race, but we're hoping for a big run.”

Donegal Bay has been training forwardly along with Pletcher's string at Palm Beach Downs and went a half-mile in 49.03 seconds on January 29 in his most recent work.

“It's a bit of a tricky race,” Crawford said. “This is the time of year where some horses get better and some don't, and he needs to get better on Saturday if he can turn himself into a contender. Obviously, there's a fair amount of front-end speed and they'll be asked to go a mile and an eighth at the same time. Donegal Racing has always been treated exceptionally well in New York and have had some good success up there.”

A son of 2010 Champion 2-Year-Old and Pletcher alumna Uncle Mo, Pletcher said that he sees a lot of similarities between Donegal Bay and his champion-producing sire.

“Donegal Bay is a little more on the narrow side, but you can see the same head and neck that Uncle Mo stamps his offspring with,” Pletcher said. “What I like is that from the past summer, the horse is starting to fill out. He seems to be doing really well.”

Meet-leading rider Kendrick Carmouche vies for a sixth stakes victory of the meet when taking the reins aboard Donegal Bay from post 7.

Bing Cherry Racing and Leonard Liberto's Capo Kane returns to Aqueduct in pursuit of more Kentucky Derby qualifying points after capturing the Jerome on New Year's Day.

Trained by Harold Wyner, Capo Kane earned 10 points toward a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May when taking the one-turn mile in gate-to-wire fashion under jockey Dylan Davis. After commanding moderate fractions up front, Capo Kane came under a drive at the top of the stretch and extended his advantage to a 6 ¼-length triumph.

The son of Street Sense, who sired 2018 Withers winner Avery Island, broke his maiden going two turns at Parx Racing in identical front-running fashion, hitting the wire a 4 ½-length winner.

With 10 qualifying Derby points from the Jerome, Capo Kane is currently 13th on the leaderboard.

Davis, who rode last year's Withers winner Max Player, will return to the saddle from post 3.

E.V Racing Stable's Eagle Orb will be seeking to turn the tables on Capo Kane after finishing second in the Jerome.

The two-time winning New York-bred captured a stakes win in the Nov. 14 Notebook at the Big A before the runner-up finish on New Year's Day.

Tracking in third from the three path out of the gate, Eagle Orb came under a drive around the far turn and attempted to confront Capo Kane around the three-sixteenths, but was kept at bay at had to settle for second.

Trained by Rudy Rodriguez, the son of Orb is 24th on the leaderboard with four points.

Breaking from post 9, jockey Jorge Vargas, Jr. has the mount.

Klaravich Stables' Risk Taking looks to capitalize off a winning performance at the Withers distance for trainer Chad Brown.

The son of Medaglia d'Oro made amends for two well-beaten performances in his first pair of starts when stretching out to two turns in a Dec. 13 maiden special weight at the Big A. Risk Taking settled in fourth along the rail into the first turn and maintained position behind horses before making a three-wide move at the top of the stretch and taking command outside the sixteenth pole to run home a 2 ¼-length winner.

Purchased for $240,000 from the Lanes' End consignment at the 2019 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, Risk Taking is out of the stakes-placed Distorted Humor mare Run a Risk and comes from the same family as champion-producing sire Seeking the Gold.

Jockey Eric Cancel will be back aboard from post 5.

Rounding out the field are Maryland invaders Shackqueenking [post 1, Trevor McCarthy] and Royal Number [post 2, Pablo Morales], as well as Mr. Doda [post 4, Luis Rodriguez Castro] and Civil War [post 8, Benjamin Hernandez].

The Withers is slated as Race 8 on Aqueduct's nine-race program which has a first post of 1 p.m. Eastern.

The Withers, named in honor of prominent 1800's owner and breeder David Dunham Withers, predates the Kentucky Derby by one year with its inaugural running taking place in 1874. Coincidentally, the following year's Withers was won by Aristides who also captured the very first running of the Kentucky Derby in 1875. Four other horses have both the Withers and Kentucky Derby on their resume including Triple crown winners Sir Barton (1919) and Count Fleet (1943) as well as Zev (1923) and Johnstown (1939).

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