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Equibase Analysis: King Of Dreams Best Chance To Upset Candy Man Rocket In Tampa

This Saturday's Grade 2, $400,000 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby provides 12 aspiring colts and geldings the opportunity to earn their share of the 85 points awarded (50 to the winner) on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” as well as the winner's share of the purse.

Leading the field is Candy Man Rocket, winner of the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs last month, with third place finisher Hidden Stash hoping to improve and potentially turn the tables on Candy Man Rocket this time around.

Among the rest, four others have won stakes races but those wins came last year. Sittin On Go won the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes last summer but has not finished better than sixth in three stakes tries since then including when beaten 17 lengths in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes in January. Helium easily won the Display Stakes when last seen in October, but that race was run at seven furlongs and on an all-weather track so he has many questions to answer (distance, surface and layoff) in this situation. Boca Boy won the In Reality Stakes in September. Then, in his comeback in the Sam F. Davis last month, Boca Boy tired to fourth after setting the early pace and could have an even harder time holding the early lead today with the speedy Promise Keeper (coming in off a maiden win) in the field. Super Strong is a Kentucky bred colt who won his only start at Camarero Race Course in Puerto Rico when victorious in the seven furlong Group 1 Classico Agustin Mercado Revron Stakes in December.

Among the rest, King of Dreams led from start to finish at the distance of the Tampa Bay Derby last month on turf and may run as well on dirt. Unbridled Honor also won his most recent start, at Tampa Bay Downs, and like King of Dreams hopes to make a big step from maiden winner into the stakes ranks. Similarly, My Liberty just won over the track to break his maiden and will be attempting to step up in class as he races around two turns for the first time. Awesome Gerry finished second in the Jean Lafitte Stakes last November but was seventh and beaten 17 lengths in the Holy Bull in his most recent race. Moonlite Strike won races in November and December but was fourth and beaten more than 15 lengths in the Smarty Jones Stakes in his most recent race.

Similar to the analysis of the Fountain of Youth Stakes last week in which the winner of the most recent prep race over the track, Greatest Honour, appeared to be the one to beat, Candy Man Rocket is the horse the other 11 will have to defeat to win.

Candy Man Rocket proved his nine length victory in January was no fluke when winning by a shorter margin, just one length, in the Sam F. Davis Stakes last month. Although earning a 90 Equibase Speed Figure in the Sam F. Davis as compared to a 94 when winning a sprint before that, Candy Man Rocket did so very professionally when stalking pace setter Boca Boy from the start then taking over while three paths wide on the turn and holding off Nova Rags and Hidden Stash, who is running back in this race as well. It is likely Boca Boy will want the lead from the start as he's done in his last two races on dirt, and it is also likely Promise Keeper will have to go fast from the 11 post to get good position from the start, Candy Man Rocket will have a great stalking position under jockey Junior Alvarado from the ground saving three post. Although there are a couple of horses which have earned higher figures in their most recent starts, one of those (King of Dreams – 96) was on turf and the other (Helium – 93) was around one turn and more than four months ago, potentially giving Candy Man Rocket an edge with which he can win his second stakes race in a row.

That said, King of Dreams has an upset chance if he can transfer his turf form to dirt. The 96 figure he earned winning at this distance on turf at the end of January is the best figure earned by any horse in this field, period. He did lead from start to finish in that race but given he does not wear blinkers I do not believe he is a need-the-lead type similar to Boca Boy or Promise Keeper, and so he too could take up a stalking position in the early stages. Getting the services of Tampa Bay Downs leading jockey Samy Camacho is a good sign, as is the fact trainer that Juan Avila just saddled the 50-1 upset winner in the Davona Dale Stakes last weekend as well as the 49-1 upset winner in the 2020 Tampa Bay Derby, King Guillermo. Considering the dam is a daughter of A.P. Indy who has produced three dirt route winners from seven other foals, I have little doubt King of Dreams can transition successfully from turf to dirt and run a competitive race.

Hidden Stash was far back in eighth in the early stages of the Sam F. Davis last month, which is much farther back than he had been in his previous two route races last fall, both of which he won, earning 87 and 89 figures. Following two months off, Hidden Stash returned in the Sam F. Davis and the early pace was much faster than he experienced previously, which helps to explain why he was farther back than usual. Nevertheless, with three-sixteenths of a mile to go, Hidden Stash swung to the four path and commenced a rally from eighth to third, just a neck from the runner-up. Watching the replay, I note Hidden Stash was ridden out after the wire giving him a bit of an education in passing the top two finishers even though the race was over. Being a son of hot sire Constitution, whose son Tiz the Law won 2020 Florida Derby, I have little doubt Hidden Stash fits at this level. With veteran jockey Rafael Bejarano coming in from Kentucky to ride and with logical improvement in his second start off the layoff, Hidden Stash must be given a lot of respect as a contender to win the Tampa Bay Derby.

In spite of the potential to get into a hot early pace battle with Boca Boy, Promise Keeper is intriguing enough to consider as having a chance in this race. Also a son of Constitution, Promise Keeper stretched out to a mile for the first time last month in his second career start and dominated by five lengths in a field of 11, earning a 90 figure. His dam, the Curlin mare Mira Alta, produced stakes winner Wicked Awesome so there's a lot of quality in his pedigree. Trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden again by Luis Saez, if Promise Keeper can get the early lead over Boca Boy from his outside post and not expend too much energy he has potential to get confident and possibly hold off the challenges of Candy Man Rocket, King of Dreams and Hidden Stash.

The rest of the field, all who have the ability to compete effectively in this race, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Awesome Gerry (86), Boca Boy (84), Helium (93), Moonlite Strike (93), My Liberty (87), Sittin on Go (91), Super Strong (82) and Unbridled Honor (85).

Win Contenders, in probability order:
Candy Man Rocket
King of Dreams
Hidden Stash

Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby – Grade 2
Race 11 at Tampa Bay Downs
Saturday, March 6 – Post Time 5:25 PM E.T.
One and One Sixteenth Miles
Three Year Olds
Purse: $400,000

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America’s Day At The Races Telecast Features Coast-To-Coast Derby Preps

America's Day at the Races, the acclaimed national telecast produced by the New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA) in partnership with FOX Sports, will air coverage both Saturday and Sunday showcasing live racing action from Aqueduct Racetrack, Oaklawn Park, Tampa Bay Downs, Santa Anita Park and Fair Grounds.

Presented by America's Best Racing and Claiborne Farm, America's Day at the Races will broadcast Saturday from 5-6 p.m. Eastern on FS2, while Sunday will feature coverage on FS2 from 1:30-6:30 p.m.

Saturday's show will offer coverage of a trio of exciting Kentucky Derby prep races, beginning with the Grade 3, $300,000 Gotham as a talented eight-horse field line up in Race 9 at 5:07 p.m at Aqueduct. The one-turn mile will offer 50-20-10-5 qualifying points to the top-four finishers, with the Chad Brown-trained Highly Motivated enters off back-to-back wins following a runner-up debut effort behind stablemate Founder in August at Saratoga Race Course. Brown and owner Klaravich Stables will also send out Crowded Trade. The chestnut colt registered an 83 Beyer in his winning debut.

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert entered graded stakes-placed Freedom Fighter after finishing a close second to stablemate Concert Tour in the Grade 2 San Vicente on February 6 at Santa Anita. Capo Cane, third in the Withers last out, and the Todd Pletcher-trained Atlantic Road will also comprise the field.

In Tampa, another 50-20-10-5-point “Road to the Kentucky Derby” prep will see a stocked 12-horse field compete in the Grade 2, $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby at 5:25 p.m.

Candy Man Rocket, trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, won the Sam F. Davis on February 6 at Tampa and will return in the 1 1/16-mile race at the same track.

Other contenders in the race include the unbeaten Helium, trained by Hall of Famer Mark Casse, as well as Pletcher sending out Promise Keeper and Unbridled Honor, both last-out maiden winner. Conditioner Saffie Joseph Jr. also will saddle a pair of challengers in Moonlite Strike and Super Strong.

The third of the three 50-20-10-5 Kentucky Derby prep races on the day will be the Grade 2, $300,000 San Felipe in Santa Anita's Race 6 at 5:30 p.m. Baffert, who has dreams of a history-making seventh overall win in the “Run for the Roses,” will look to see if Life is Good can remain unbeaten. Stablemate Medina Spirit, who was the runner-up in the Sham and won the Robert B. Lewis, will give Baffert coast-to-coast challengers on the Derby trail.

Sunday's racing action will feature the $100,000 Biogio's Rose for New York-bred fillies and mares 4-year-olds and up at Aqueduct. Espresso Shot has won a stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack at ages 2, 3 and 4 and will look to register a win at the Big A for a fourth consecutive year she competes against five other contenders going a one-turn mile on Sunday. The Sunday broadcast will also feature live racing from Oaklawn, Tampa Bay Downs and Fair Grounds Race Course.

America's Day at the Races is also broadcast on NYRA's YouTube channel which boasts more than 65,000 subscribers. Fans can subscribe to NYRA's channel and set a reminder to watch the show on YouTube Live. NYRA's YouTube channel also hosts a plethora of race replays, special features, America's Day at the Races replays and more.

Free Equibase-provided past performances are available for races that are part of the America's Day at the Races broadcast and can be accessed at https://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/racing/tv-schedule.

NYRA Bets is the official wagering platform of Aqueduct Racetrack, and the best way to bet every race of the winter meet. Available to horseplayers nationwide, the NYRA Bets app is available for download today on iOS and Android at www.NYRABets.com.

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Candy Man Rocket ‘Deserving Favorite’ Of Full Field In Tampa Bay Derby

With the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve eight weeks away, time is running short for trainers entertaining visions of red roses and mint juleps. Saturday's Grade 2, $400,000 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby will bring together 12 3-year-olds, most with much to prove if they are to continue to advance toward a date with destiny on May 1.

“Except for Bill Mott's horse (Candy Man Rocket, who won the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes here on Feb. 6), everyone is searching to see if they belong as a contender or are just a pretender,” said Saffie Joseph, Jr., who will send out three horses in the 41st annual Tampa Bay Downs showcase: Moonlite Strike, Super Strong and Awesome Gerry.

“Candy Man Rocket is a deserving favorite. A lot of the others have shown glimpses of ability, but I think they would have to run their best race ever to win,” Joseph said. “It seems like there are a lot of horses in there with two or three starts, so it looks like it is wide-open.”

The mile-and-a-sixteenth Lambbholm South Tampa Bay Derby, scheduled on the main dirt track as the 11th race on a 12-race card, is one of five Festival Day 41 Presented by Lambholm South stakes worth a combined $1-million in purse money. The race is also a “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points affair, with 50, 20, 10 and 5 points awarded to the first four finishers toward securing a spot in the starting gate at Churchill Downs.

The other stakes on the card include the Grade 2, $225,000 Hillsborough Stakes for older fillies and mares at a mile-and-an-eighth on the turf, scheduled as the ninth race; the Grade 3, $200,000 Florida Oaks for 3-year-old fillies at a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the grass, scheduled as the 10th race; the Grade 3, $100,000 Michelob Ultra Challenger Stakes for horses 4-years-old-and-upward at a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the dirt, slated as the fifth race; and the $75,000 Columbia Stakes for 3-year-olds at a mile on the turf, scheduled as the seventh.

Post time for the first of Saturday's 12 races is 12:17 p.m.

Here is the full field for the Grade II, $400,000 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby in post position order, with trainer, jockey and morning-line odds:

1. My Liberty, Maria Ines Mejia, Tomas Mejia, 30-1; 2. Super Strong, Saffie Joseph, Jr., Antonio Gallardo, 8-1; 3. Candy Man Rocket, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, 2-1; 4. King of Dreams, Juan Carlos Avila, Samy Camacho, 20-1; 5. Boca Boy, Cheryl Winebaugh, Angel Arroyo, 15-1; 6. Awesome Gerry, Saffie Joseph, Jr., Hector Diaz, Jr., 15-1; 7. Moonlite Strike, Saffie Joseph, Jr., Daniel Centeno, 20-1; 8. Hidden Stash, Victoria Oliver, Rafael Bejarano, 4-1; 9. Unbridled Honor, Todd Pletcher, Julien Leparoux, 20-1; 10. Helium, Mark Casse, Jose Ferrer, 6-1; 11. Promise Keeper, Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez, 8-1; 12. Sittin On Go, Dale Romans, Roberto Alvarado, Jr., 20-1.

On Sunday, Mott said Candy Man Rocket “looked as smooth as silk” while breezing 4 furlongs at Payson Park Training Center in Indiantown in preparation for the race. Neither that assessment nor his 2-for-3 record, which includes a 9 ¼-length maiden victory on Jan. 9 at Gulfstream, deterred the connections of 11 others from competing.

Candy Man Rocket will break from the No. 3 post while again being ridden by Junior Alvarado.

Joseph has secured the services of three of the top four jockeys in the Tampa Bay Downs standings for his entrants. Daniel Centeno, who has won the Tampa Bay Derby twice, will ride Moonlite Strike from the No. 7 post, while Super Strong will break from the No. 2 post under Antonio Gallardo. Hector Diaz, Jr., will ride Awesome Gerry from the No. 6 post.

Super Strong, in some ways, is the most intriguing of the three. He is a son of Super Saver, who finished third in the 2010 Tampa Bay Derby, then went on to win the Kentucky Derby. Super Strong's only career start, on Dec. 19, resulted in an impressive come-from-behind victory in the Grade 1, 7-furlong Classico Agustin Mercado Revron Stakes on a sloppy track at Camarero in Puerto Rico.

Both Super Strong and Moonlite Strike are owned by Marc Tacher's Sonata Stable. Tacher transferred Super Strong to Joseph's Palm Meadows Training Center Beach in Boynton Beach in mid-January.

“He has trained well enough to give it a shot,” Joseph said. “It's hard to judge his form in Puerto Rico, but he acts like the distance will be no problem. We aren't giving up much experience to most of the other horses in the race. We definitely would like him to have another race in him, but we have to play the hand we're dealt.”

Joining Candy Man Rocket and Super Strong as a graded-stakes winner in the race is trainer Dale Romans's Sittin On Go, who will break from the outside No. 12 post with Roberto Alvarado, Jr., in the irons. Sittin On Go won the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes Presented by Ford on Sept. 5 at Churchill Downs, then was a non-threatening ninth in the TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance on Nov. 6 at Keeneland.

A pair of subsequent off-the-board finishes against top-level competition finds Sittin On Go with more questions than answers as Saturday nears.

Todd Pletcher, who has sent out a record five winners of the Tampa Bay Derby, has two colts in this year's renewal. Promise Keeper, who will break from the No. 11 post under Luis Saez, broke his maiden in his second start on Feb. 6 at Gulfstream, drawing away to a 5-length victory in a 1-mile maiden special weight contest on a sloppy track.

Pletcher's other entrant is Unbridled Honor, who will break from the No. 9 post under Julien Leparoux. Unbridled Honor is 1-for-3, breaking his maiden at Tampa Bay Downs in a mile-and-40-yard maiden special weight race on Feb. 6.

The conditioner knows about winning the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby with lightly raced colts. His 2013 winner, Verrazano, was making his third career start; 2015 winner Carpe Diem was making his fourth start; and Pletcher's 2016 and 2017 winners, Destin and Tapwrit, their fifth starts.

Two horses that seem certain to take a fair share of wagering dollars are the third and fourth-place finishers in the Sam F. Davis, Hidden Stash and Boca Boy. Hidden Stash, who is trained by Victoria Oliver, will be reunited with jockey Rafael Bejarano, who rode him to his two career victories last fall at Keeneland and Churchill Downs. They break from the No. 8 post.

Boca Boy, the Sam F. Davis pace-setter, is the only Florida-bred and the only gelding in the race. The son of Prospective is trained by Cheryl Winebaugh and will be ridden by Angel Arroyo.

Ken Winebaugh, the assistant to wife Cheryl, said today that Boca Boy rebounded in fine fettle from his Sam F. Davis effort and that he expects another good performance. Arroyo, who rode Boca Boy in his first three starts, last rode him when he finished second in August in the Proud Man Stakes on the turf at Gulfstream.

“I think he got a little tired in the Sam F. Davis, but he didn't quit. This horse has plenty of heart,” Ken Winebaugh said. “I don't think he has to be in front. He laid off the pace in the Proud Man and went to the lead (before getting caught by Hot Blooded).”

While agreeing with the consensus that Candy Man Rocket is the horse to beat, Winebaugh thinks the Sam F. Davis form could hold up. “I think those three horses from the Sam F. Davis will be the toughest. I don't see any newcomers who scare me too much,” he said.

Like any Florida-bred worth his salt, Boca Boy could benefit from rain that is forecast for Saturday. He has won twice on a sloppy track at Gulfstream, including a victory on Sept. 26 in the Florida Thoroughbred Breeders' and Owners' Association Florida Sire In Reality Stakes.

As a state-bred, Boca Boy is eligible for the race's $50,000 FTBOA money for registered Florida-breds. The last Florida-bred to win the Tampa Bay Derby was Watch Me Go in 2011.

Saturday's race appears similar to last year's Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby from the standpoint of the favorite being the Sam F. Davis winner – in 2020, Sole Volante. While the gelding ran well for a second-place finish, he could not catch 49-1 shot King Guillermo and Samy Camacho, who turned it on through the stretch for a 4 ¾-length victory.

King Guillermo's connections – Camacho, owner Victor Martinez's Victoria's Ranch and trainer Juan Carlos Avila – are back for another try with King of Dreams, who broke his maiden in his second start on Jan. 30 in a mile-and-a-sixteenth turf race at Gulfstream. King Guillermo had finished third in the Pulpit Stakes on the grass at Gulfstream in his previous start.

King of Dreams and Camacho will break from the No. 4 post. King Guillermo, who finished second in a division of last year's Grade I Arkansas Derby but has not won since the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, is entered in Saturday's Grade I Santa Anita Handicap.

Did you know that the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby field contains two unbeaten horses? Beside Super Strong, there is Helium, who won both of his starts last fall racing 7 furlongs on the synthetic Tapeta surface at Woodbine. Mark Casse, who won the 2012 Tampa Bay Derby with Prospective, is the trainer.

Off since his Display Stakes victory in October, Helium will break from the No. 10 post under Jose Ferrer.

In a Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby that seems as wide-open as any in the race's history, one shouldn't overlook My Liberty, assigned 30-1 morning-line odds. He is trained by Maria Ines Mejia and will break from the No. 1 post under jockey Tomas Mejia (no relation).

My Liberty broke his maiden sprinting 7 furlongs here on Feb. 12 and has the potential to set all his backers free by pulling the upset.

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Gotham: O’Neill-Trained Wipe The Slate ‘Much More Calm And Relaxed’

West Coast-based Freedom Fighter and Wipe the Slate, top contenders for Saturday's Grade 3, $300,000 Gotham at Aqueduct Racetrack, arrived in New York from their southern California base at Santa Anita Park on Wednesday and visited the Belmont Park dirt training track Thursday morning.

A loaded Saturday card at Aqueduct features the Gotham, a one-turn mile that provides 50-20-10-5 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top four finishers; the Grade 3, $200,000 Tom Fool Handicap, a six-furlong sprint for older horses; the $250,000 Busher Invitational for 3-year-old fillies offering 50-20-10-5 Kentucky Oaks qualifying points; and the $125,000 Heavenly Prize Invitational, a one-turn mile for fillies and mares 4-years-old and up.

Trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, Freedom Fighter, stabled with trainer John Terranova, went out to the training track at 9:30 a.m. with exercise rider Simon Harris aboard while under the watchful eye of Terranova's wife and assistant, Tonja.

Terranova said fellow Baffert trainee Speed Pass, entered in the Tom Fool on the Gotham undercard, was out for exercise at 7:30 a.m.

“They just cruised around the track,” Tonja Terranova said. “They both looked great. Simon was happy with how they went and both of them ate up real well last night.”

A son of Violence, Freedom Fighter will see some added distance in the one-turn mile Gotham off a close second to stablemate Concert Tour in the Grade 2 San Vicente at seven furlongs at Santa Anita. The runner-up effort, which garnered a 94 Beyer Speed Figure, was his first start off a six-month layoff after a successful debut going gate-to-wire on August 1 at Del Mar.

Freedom Fighter is owned by SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Golconda Stables, Siena Farm and Robert Masterson and was bought for $120,000 from the 2019 Keeneland September Sale.

Manny Franco will pilot Freedom Fighter from post 7 in a field of eight.

Speed Pass, owned by Mike Pegram, Karl Watson and Paul Weitman, arrives at the Tom Fool – a six-furlong sprint for older horses – off a close third as the lukewarm favorite in an allowance optional claiming race on January 31 at Santa Anita, which was his first start in nearly a full calendar year.

A two-time winner at three-quarters of a mile, the son of Bodemeister was third in the Grade 2 Palos Verdes last January at Santa Anita and seeks his first trip to the winner's circle since defeating winners at Los Alamitos by seven lengths over a good and sealed track.

Trainer Doug O'Neill, who was nominated to the Hall of Fame this year, shipped Wipe the Slate for the Gotham. The chestnut son of second-crop sire Nyquist went to the training track at 10:00 a.m. for O'Neill's assistant Daniel Robles.

“Perfect, really good,” Robles said of the morning exercise. “I think we have a pretty good chance.”

Wipe the Slate was last out a distant sixth to Medina Spirit in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis on February 6 at Santa Anita going 1 1/16 miles and cuts back to one turn for the Gotham.

“That was a bad day for him, but he's come along well,” Robles said. “Going back to one turn should be good for him. That day, he was real nervous, but this time he seems much more calm and relaxed.”

Second to highly regarded Life Is Good on debut, Wipe the Slate broke his maiden in his following effort on December 26 at Santa Anita. He will take blinkers off for Saturday's race and will be ridden from post 4 by Aqueduct leading rider Kendrick Carmouche.

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