Global Views: The Impact Of The Points System

   In Global Views, Godolphin Flying Start trainees provide insight into practices experienced and observations taken on their worldwide travels. First-year trainee Marine Moussa examines the impact of the Kentucky Derby points system that was implemented nine years ago.

The 147th running of the Kentucky Derby is this Saturday and the excitement after four months of preparation has reached its climax. The 20 contenders have qualified for the Kentucky Derby through a points system that was implemented in 2013. The system, called 'The Road to the Kentucky Derby', features 20 races for the preparatory season and 16 for the championship series. The 'Run for the Roses' used to be much more accessible to horses who had done their best running at two, and sprinters, when graded stakes earnings criteria was used to gain a position in the starting gate. Now, qualification for the race is weighted heavily towards 3-year-olds that have done their best running more recently and in races over a mile or longer.

Has the quality of the Kentucky Derby field changed since the Road to the Kentucky Derby was implemented?  A look at the median Beyer speed-figure of each Kentucky Derby field taken from each runner's last start before the Derby did not suggest so. Comparing Kentucky Derby fields under the points system with what they would have been with the old graded stakes earnings system could be a lead for further research. What we can observe is not so much a change in the quality of the field, but a difference in composition of the Derby field to select and favour 3-year-old horses with Classic-distance form.

Before 2013, more horses that had picked up significant earnings in 2-year-old races, and sprinters, were eligible for the Derby. These horses may have had good 2-year-old form, but may not have trained on into their 3-year-old campaigns or excelled in two-turn races. Take the recent example of last year's GI Champagne S. and GI Hopeful S.  winner Jackie's Warrior (Maclean's Music): He was a very good 2-year-old and considered an early favourite for the Derby, but he has been beaten in both his tries around two turns, indicating that he is a sprinter/miler rather than a Classic-distance colt, and that is the route connections have now taken. Under the old graded stakes earnings system, Jackie's Warrior would have qualified for a position in the Derby off his early 2-year-old form. The new system is weighted towards 3-year-olds that can make an impact at the American middle distances and that have more potential to be Triple Crown winners. Since the points system was implemented in 2013, there have been two Triple Crown winners–American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018)–within three years; The most recent Triple Crown winners previously had been Affirmed in 1978 and Seattle Slew in 1977. The points system rewards horses that can win or place in races just before the Derby. The goal is to have more true 1 1/4 mile horses running in top form closer to the Derby. Horses that exclusively did their best running at two get fewer points and 3-year-old sprint races get none.

It is also interesting to consider how the switch to the points system might affect how the race is run. There have been a few instances where sprinters–horses that did their best running at less than a mile before and after the Kentucky Derby–ran in the Derby and pressed the pace and tired before reaching the stretch, helping to set the race up for a stalker or closer. In the 133rd running of the Kentucky Derby in 2007, Teuflesberg–who won the one-mile GIII Southwest S. prior to the Derby and the seven-furlong GII Woody Stephen S. after–pressed the front-running Hard Spun before fading to finish 17th. Hard Spun stayed on for second, and the winner was the post-time favourite Street Sense, who was 19th of the 20 runners early. Interestingly, Teuflesberg's son, Trinniberg, had a similar run in the Derby in 2012. He sat second and pressed Bodemeister through some of the fastest fractions in the history of the race. Like Hard Spun, Bodemeister held second and Trinniberg faded to 17th; just like his sire, he was backing up by the time he reached the mile marker. The winner was the stalking I'll Have Another. Trinniberg bookended his Kentucky Derby run with graded stakes wins over seven furlongs, and later that year was named champion sprinter after winning the GI Breeders' Cup Sprint over six furlongs. It is not impossible, of course, under the new system for a horse to press the pace and fade or fail to stay, but the points system at least favours horses that look likely to see out the trip.

The Road to the Kentucky Derby has changed the composition of the field and therefore the dynamic of the race. If the points system had been in place at that time, Teuflesberg and Trinniberg represent two examples of horses that would likely have not qualified for the race. The new points system has placed on emphasis on horses with 3-year-old middle-distance form and continues to preserve the prestige of ensuring a spot in the 'Run for the Roses.'

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Derby Notes: Midnight Bourbon, Brooklyn Strong Post Monday Workouts

Winchell Thoroughbreds' Midnight Bourbon worked five furlongs in 1:02.40 over a fast track at Churchill Downs while earlier at Parx, Mark Schwartz's Brooklyn Strong worked five furlongs in 1:00.92 to punch his ticket to Louisville for Kentucky Derby 147 for trainer Danny Velazquez.

BOURBONIC, DYNAMIC ONE, KNOWN AGENDA, SAINTHOOD – Trainer Todd Pletcher's Derby four-bagger was swinging for the fences Monday morning at Churchill Downs as they continued their preparation for this coming Saturday's big game known as Kentucky Derby 147.

Each of the well-bred youngsters galloped approximately a mile and a quarter on a sunny Kentucky morning and they all earned a thumbs up from Pletcher after they reported back to his Barn 42 on the track's backside.

Heading out first at the start of the 7:30 – 7:45 a.m. special training period for Derby and Oaks contenders were Florida Derby (G1) winner Known Agenda (with exercise rider Carlos Perez Quevuedo aboard) and New York's Wood Memorial (G2) runner-up Dynamic One (with Hector Ramos in the tack). They were followed at 7:50 by Wood Memorial winner Bourbonic (Ramos) and Turfway Park's Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) runner-up Sainthood (with Amelia Green up).

The colts were likely to follow a similar pattern for the rest of the week with possible side trips to the starting gate and paddock mixed in, Pletcher said.

“So far, so good,” he said.

BROOKLYN STRONG – Mark Schwartz's Brooklyn Strong passed the last hurdle and is now Kentucky Derby bound after working five furlongs in 1:00.92 at Parx Monday. He will depart his Bensalem, Pennsylvania base at 6 p.m. Monday and is expected at Churchill by 6 a.m. Tuesday.

“It was perfect,” trainer Danny Velazquez said. “I'd like to say it went just as planned, but none of this has been planned. We're excited. He worked great. Cooled out great. He'll have all day to relax before he leaves.”

Brooklyn Strong, who ended 2020 by winning the Remsen Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct, will be making only his second start of 2021. He was most recently fifth in the Wood Memorial April 3 in his debut.

ESSENTIAL QUALITY, MANDALOUN – Trainer Brad Cox's Derby-duo of Godolphin's Essential Quality and Juddmonte Farm's Mandaloun had a spirited jog Monday morning at Churchill Downs.

“Both horses came out of their Saturday works great and we're just doing our normal routine leading into race day,” Cox said. “They'll both gallop Tuesday and we'll just make sure they're happy until Derby Day.”

HELIUM, SOUP AND SANDWICH – D J Stable's Helium and Live Oak Plantation's homebred Soup and Sandwich both schooled at the starting gate and galloped 1 ½ miles over the track Monday morning, with the former looking particularly strong for trainer Mark Casse. Assistant trainer David Carroll was happy with how the morning went, even though both colts may go about it in different ways.

“That's who Helium is; he likes to train and he's fresh and on the muscle,” Carroll said. “Soup and Sandwich, you really only see that from him when he breezes. But they are both doing great, they schooled beautifully at the gate, and now we're just hopeful we'll get some luck at the draw (Tuesday).”

HIDDEN STASH – BBN Racing's Hidden Stash galloped a mile and a half with trainer Vicki Oliver aboard early Monday morning at Keeneland.

A similar activity is planned for 5:30 Tuesday morning before Hidden Stash vans to Churchill Downs.

HIGHLY MOTIVATED – Klaravich Stables' Highly Motivated went back to the track for the first time since his final Derby workout Saturday morning for trainer Chad Brown, jogging under exercise rider Peter Roman.

“I gave him a jog all the way around with the pony, just to see how he was moving and stretching himself out,” Brown said. “I'm really happy with how he looked and he's going to go back to galloping tomorrow. I'll do a little paddock schooling one of the days and we'll be in good shape.”

HOT ROD CHARLIE – The TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) winner and racing millionaire Hot Rod Charlie got his first feel for the Churchill Downs racing strip Monday morning by going through a handy one-mile jog with exercise rider Jonny Garcia in the tack during the 7:30 – 7:45 training period for Derby and Oaks runners.

Trainer Doug O'Neill, already a two-time Kentucky Derby winner (I'll Have Another in 2012 and Nyquist in 2016) was a most-interested observer as his charge went through his paces.

“We both shipped well Sunday,” the ebullient O'Neill offered. “I always ship well.”

“Charlie” seemed more than ready to take on his assignment Monday, but he had to go some to outdo his pony, the Hall of Famer Lava Man, who accompanied the sophomore on his journey east and acted like a young boy (despite his 20 years) as he led the way to the racetrack.

Lava Man, the world's greatest claim ($50,000 that parlayed into more than $5.2 million), attempted retirement a bunch of years back, but was so unhappy with pasture life that he was returned to the racetrack. He has flourished in his new role schooling the youngsters and has earned the nickname “Coach” from the folks at the O'Neill barn.

O'Neill indicated that Hot Rod Charlie would jog again Tuesday, then gallop up to Saturday's $3 million Run for the Roses.

KEEPMEINMIND – Keepmeinmind, who broke his maiden last fall at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), schooled in the gate and then galloped 1 1/2 miles Monday at 7:30 a.m.

Trainer Robertino Diodoro, who arrives in Louisville Monday evening, said Keepmeinmind schooled without blinkers and will be entered Tuesday without blinkers.

KING FURY – Fern Circle Stables and Three Chimneys Farm's King Fury was out on the track Monday morning during the period reserved for Kentucky Derby and Oaks horses. With exercise rider Lalo Jose Quiroz aboard, King Fury followed up on Saturday's work with a jog and a gallop.

“Uncomplicated,” said trainer Kenny McPeek after King Fury and Oaks contender Crazy Beautiful came off the track. “Coming off the work, I jogged them a mile and galloped them a mile. This is a typical routine, we're not going to change anything from what we would do for any other race.”

LIKE THE KING – M Racing Group's Like the King galloped a mile and a half under exercise rider Jose Hernandez Monday morning at Keeneland for trainer Wesley Ward.

A similar activity is scheduled for Tuesday morning at 6 o'clock before Like the King vans to Churchill Downs.

Ward said he probably would be at the post position draw scheduled at 11 a.m. in the Aristides Lounge at Churchill Downs.

MEDINA SPIRIT – Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert made his first appearance at Churchill Downs since winning the rescheduled Kentucky Derby last September with Authentic on Monday. He arrived at the barn shortly after watching his 2021 Derby prospect Medina Spirit gallop 1 3/8 miles from the Grandstand.

“I was hoping to enjoy my Derby win a little longer, but it's always great to be back at Churchill Downs,” Baffert said. “I love coming here. It looked like we were coming with something really live a couple of months ago. (Life Is Good) looked really strong, but that's part of the business.

“I think we're here with a horse that's in the top 10. I usually like to come in with a top five type horse. He's top 10. He shows up every time. He's run second to some really nice horses. He's doing well over this track.”

Medina Spirit trained at the 7:30 a.m. time allotted for Kentucky Oaks and Derby horses along with stablemate Concert Tour. Although Concert Tour has the points needed to run on virtue of his win in the Rebel Stakes (G2) and third in the Arkansas Derby (G1), Baffert said he would not be entered Tuesday and is instead being pointed toward the Preakness Stakes.

MIDNIGHT BOURBON, SUPER STOCK – Winchell Thoroughbreds' Midnight Bourbon, in what will likely be the last major workout from the 20 prospective Derby starters, went five furlongs in 1:02.40 under exercise rider Wilson Fabian. The son of Tiznow posted splits of 24.40 and 49.60 and galloped out six furlongs in 1:16.20.

“I'm very happy with how he went,” Asmussen said. “We got exactly what we wanted and he continues to do very well.”

Erv Woolsey's and Asmussen's father Keith's Super Stock went back to the track for the first time since his final Derby breeze Saturday morning and jogged one-mile alongside assistant trainer Scott Blasi aboard the pony.

O BESOS – Bernard Racing, Tagg Team Racing, West Point Thoroughbreds and Terry L. Stephens' O Besos galloped about 1 ½ miles under Margarito Fierro for trainer Greg Foley.

“We'll probably school him in the paddock at some point this week and be ready for Saturday,” Foley said.

ROCK YOUR WORLD – Trainer John Sadler and the 3-year-old colt Rock Your World shipped from California to Louisville Sunday and both went trackside Monday morning for the special 7:30 – 7:45 training period for Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks runners.

Rock Your World, an undefeated son of Candy Ride, just stretched his legs for the first time at Churchill Downs in an easy one-mile jog around the big oval with exercise rider Javier Meza in the boot. The tall, dark youngster was a picture as he went through his paces in professional fashion.

“I'll gallop him the rest of the week, then just walk him on race day,” Sadler said.

Rock Your World is owned by Sadler's chief clients, Californian brothers Kosta and Pete Hronis, along with their partner, David Talla. He was a $650,000 Keeneland yearling purchase who clicked in his first race on New Year's Day at Santa Anita on the grass, then followed that up with a further tally on the turf in the listed Pasadena Stakes over the same course on Feb. 27.

The connections were encouraged enough by their colt's abilities to throw him into the deep end of the pool in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 3 and were promptly rewarded with a 4 ¼-length triumph in front-running fashion over nine furlongs on dirt. Shortly thereafter, they went from the deep end of the pool to ocean swimming by putting his name on the list for Kentucky Derby 147.

California-based Umberto Rispoli had been aboard Rock Your World for his two California stakes scores, but when Sadler favorite Joel Rosario came open for the Run for the Roses the switch was made.

Rock Your World will be one of the favorites for the 10-furlong classic this Saturday.

SHAPING UP: THE KENTUCKY DERBY – Likely starters in the 147th running of the $3 million Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve (Grade 1) for 3-year-olds at 1 1/4 miles on Saturday, May 1 in order of preference (with possible jockey and trainer): Essential Quality (Luis Saez, Brad Cox); Hot Rod Charlie (Flavien Prat, Doug O'Neill); Super Stock (Ricardo Santana Jr., Steve Asmussen); Like the King (Drayden Van Dyke, Wesley Ward); Known Agenda (Irad Ortiz Jr., Todd Pletcher); Rock Your World (Joel Rosario, John Sadler); Bourbonic (Kendrick Carmouche, Todd Pletcher); Medina Spirit (John Velazquez, Bob Baffert); Midnight Bourbon (Mike Smith, Steve Asmussen); Mandaloun (Florent Geroux, Brad Cox); Highly Motivated (Javier Castellano, Chad Brown); Helium (Julien Leparoux, Mark Casse); Soup and Sandwich (Tyler Gaffalione, Mark Casse); Dynamic One (Jose Ortiz, Todd Pletcher); Sainthood (Corey Lanerie, Todd Pletcher); Hidden Stash (Rafael Bejarano, Vicki Oliver); O Besos (Marcelino Pedroza, Greg Foley); King Fury (Brian Hernandez Jr., Kenny McPeek); Keepmeinmind (David Cohen, Robertino Diodoro); Brooklyn Strong (Umberto Rispoli, Danny Velazquez).

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Sadler Plans To Work Rock Your World Twice In California Before Shipping To Louisville

Trainer John Sadler plans to keep Santa Anita Derby winner Rock Your World in California for as long as possible before shipping East for the Kentucky Derby, he told the Thoroughbred Daily News this week. The 3-year-old son of Candy Ride will work this weekend and the next at Santa Anita, then fly to Louisville on the Sunday before the Kentucky Derby.

“I'm very strong about staying in California because we know one thing we have here that they don't have there: We're not going to get rain in April,” Sadler told the TDN. “But maybe the racing gods will knock me down for saying that.”

Bred in Kentucky by California-based trainer Ron McAnally and his wife, Deborah, Rock Your World had won twice on the dirt before trying the main track for the first time in the Santa Anita Derby.

“I also wanted to start on the grass because I thought it would be easier,” Sadler added. “He's a big horse-wanted to give him time to develop, grow up, mature into himself. He's done that.”

Rock Your World put in an impressive front-running performance to win the Derby prep going away, and McAnally bought Sadler a celebratory egg roll the next morning at Clocker's Corner at Santa Anita.

Read more at the Thoroughbred Daily News.

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Hidden Stash, Likely To Make Derby Field, Fires Bullet Workout At Keeneland

BBN Racing's Hidden Stash began preparations for a likely start in the Kentucky Derby (G1) Presented by Woodford Reserve by working a half-mile in :47.80 Wednesday morning at Keeneland shortly after the track opened for training at 5:30 a.m. The work was the best of 23 at the distance for the morning.

Working in company with 4-year-old allowance winner Kentucky Ghost and unraced 3-year-old Social Chatter, Hidden Stash produced fractions of :12.60, :24.40, :36.60 and :47.80, catching up to his workmates at the wire after starting 8 lengths back. He galloped out five furlongs in 1:00 and six furlongs in 1:13.80 over a fast track with jockey Rafael Bejarano aboard.

Fourth in Keeneland's Toyota Blue Grass (G2) in his most recent start, Hidden Stash ranks 21st on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard. The top 20 point earners to pass the entry box will be in the starting gate for the $3 million race. A few horses ahead of Hidden Stash are considered not likely to enter.

The  bullet work put to rest any concerns trainer Vicki Oliver might have had about Hidden Stash being tired following his Toyota Blue Grass run.

“I thought he worked really well and we beat the rain,” Oliver said, referring to a steady rain that began at 6:15 a.m. “I was going to work Thursday, Friday or Saturday. I was watching the weather and I wanted to get a decent work in, so we went this morning.”

Oliver plans to work Hidden Stash again on Saturday, April 24 and ship to Churchill Downs the morning of Tuesday, April 27. The colt by Constitution is familiar with Churchill, where he raced twice last year and picked up one of his two career victories.

Under operation for less than three years, BBN Racing is proud of its accomplishments with such runners as Grade 1 winner Concrete Rose, raced in partnership with Ashbrook Farm, and Grade 2-placed Hidden Stash.

In Kentucky, “BBN” means only one thing: the University of Kentucky fandom. The enthusiastic group inspired the racing operation's name.

“BBN Racing does stand for Big Blue Nation, not because all the partners are from Kentucky – most of the partners are huge sports fans,” said Braxton Lynch, a Founding Partner of BBN Racing with Brian Klatsky and Brendan O'Brien. “Big Blue Nation is known for its enthusiasm and passion and that's what we wanted to capture with BBN Racing. It's made up of friends and family who watched horse racing from the sidelines and has given them a chance to participate, while spreading the (investment) risk.”

Hidden Stash, a colt by Constitution bred in Kentucky by Rhineshire Farm, comes from the family of Grade 1 winner and sire Sky Mesa and Grade 1 winner Maxfield. Vinery Sales, agent for Rhineshire Farm, consigned him to the September Sale, where he sold to BBN for $50,000.

“He was quite immature at the time,” Lynch said, “and I remember thinking that we might have just found a diamond in the rough. Either that or just a piece of coal. Luckily, he's looking more and more like a diamond.”

Trained by Vicki Oliver, Hidden Stash received his early training at Keeneland. He scored his first career victory here during the 2020 Fall Meet and next won an allowance race at Churchill Downs. Hidden Stash was third in the Sam F. Davis (G3) and second in the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2) in his first two starts at 3.

“This horse is tactical and can adapt to whatever options are thrown at him,” Lynch said. “He's a horse that has improved with every race. We've been itching to stretch him out, and I think he's slowly maturing into the kind of horse we hoped he would be. He tries hard every time, and that's all you can ask these athletes to do.”

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