The Week in Review: Betting on Good Karma to Overcome Bad Headlines

Next week at this time, we'll know if the sport is on the cusp of another Triple Crown sweep. Of all the potential excuses for GI Kentucky Derby winner Mage (Good Magic) not emerging victorious from the GI Preakness S., intense media pressure is unlikely to be one of them.

You could make the argument that the diminutive, white-blazed chestnut with the endearing overbite has enjoyed one of the least-scrutinized post-Derby weeks of any winner in recent history. That's not so much because the spotlight on his accomplishment has dimmed. It has to do with overlapping waves of chaos commandeering the game like a searing mint julep hangover that won't go away.

Colleague Bill Finley wrote in this space last week about the seven horse deaths at Churchill Downs that overshadowed Mage's Derby score. That was followed a few days later by proponents and opponents of the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act (HISA) sparring in federal court, where the highlighting of racing's recent, grim headlines to prove points underscored a nasty turn in a two-year-old lawsuit that has no end in sight.

Additionally, Mage was eclipsed in the news by the colt who was favored to beat him, but had to scratch on the morning of the Derby with a foot bruise. That would be the 2-year-old champ Forte (Violence), who on May 9 was revealed to have failed a drug test at Saratoga last September, with the public kept in the dark the entire eight months afterward until the scoop was leaked to the New York Times.

Two days later, on May 11, Forte was disqualified from the GI Hopeful S. on the basis of a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory medication positive. The case is under appeal, with the only certainty being that it, too, is likely to linger in the courts for a long, long time.

The same day as word of Forte's DQ broke, the connections of last year's underdog Derby upsetter, Rich Strike (Keen Ice), also got dragged into the headlines for a cringe-worthy cameo. The issue had nothing to do with the colt's 0-for-6 record since winning the first leg of the 2022 Triple Crown.

Rather, trainer Eric Reed informed owner Rick Dawson (via text) that he was resigning after the two failed to come to an agreement over–Are you ready for this?–a proposed movie deal. Reed's version of events is that he stepped away after Dawson gave him an ultimatum to either drop the project or get fired. Dawson's take is that he was being kept out of the loop on negotiations and that “things were done behind my back.”

Will “Richie” still be destined for the big screen? Destined for prolonged litigation seems more like it.

And finally, even though it managed not to percolate to the top of the news cycle last week, trainer Bob Baffert and Churchill Downs, Inc., were still trading court filings in Baffert's federal civil rights lawsuit against the gaming company that controls the nation's most important horse race. Yes, Baffert's two-year banishment from the Derby has come and gone, but the lawyering is far from done and the legal fight grinds on.

Separately, we still don't know the outcome of the appeal of Medina Spirit's betamethasone DQ from the 2021 Derby, which is what sparked both Baffert's ruling-off and the lawsuit. That's because the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission still hasn't adjudicated the appeal, 743 days after the test sample was drawn.

Bottom line? All this attention being deflected away from Mage lets him coast into Baltimore further under the radar than most Derby winners. Theoretically, that's great for the colt. For the sport as a whole, it's embarrassing.

The last four Derbies have all been dysfunctional to some degree. An inexplicable 80-1 winner was 2022's oddity. The in-limbo drug DQ appeal of Medina Spirit still clouds the 2021 Derby. The 2020 pandemic necessitated that year's Derby be run in September instead of May. In 2019, it was the DQ of first-across-the-line Maximum Security for in-race interference, the only demotion of a Derby winner for an in-race foul, and it too sparked a failed federal lawsuit.

Mage's trainer, Gustavo Delgado, had a peripheral role in that controversial 2019 Derby. He saddled the 71-1 Bodexpress, who, just like Mage, set sail for Louisville after running second in the GI Florida Derby.

The difference was that Bodexpress went into the Kentucky Derby while still a maiden. Nevertheless, he showed grit by pressing the pace and holding a forward position against far more seasoned horses before tiring and then dramatically checking out of action in the far-turn scrum that resulted in Maximum Security's DQ.

Delgado, who had saddled multiple Classics-level stakes winners in his native Venezuela prior to trying his luck with a stable in America in 2014, wheeled Bodexpress right back two weeks later, giving him his first starter in the Preakness. The colt went off at 20-1, but dislodged jockey John Velazquez at the start and careened around the track riderless before being safely corralled.

Because of his antics, Bodexpress became a social media sensation and something of a fan favorite. After a five-month freshening, he broke his maiden in Florida and subsequently won two allowance races.

In 2020, Bodexpress scored at 11-1 odds in the GI Clark S. at Churchill to cap off his racing career, while giving Delgado his second Grade I winner in the United States. That turn of events signaled better Triple Crown karma might eventually be in Delgado's pipeline.

The trainer's son and assistant, Gustavo Delgado, Jr., told TDN's Katie Petrunyak on Friday that his father initially scoffed at the $290,000 purchase of Mage at EASMAY last spring.

“He didn't like him because he's got parrot mouth,” Delgado, Jr., said. “I remember he looked at me and said, 'The next time you are buying a horse, send me a video first and don't buy a parrot mouth.' But I told him, 'Trust me, this guy can run.'”

Talk about looking a gift horse in the mouth.

Mage fits the profile of a Derby winner who might not be fancied as the favorite in the Preakness, where he'll face a wave of fresh competition. But he's now uncorked big moves on the far turn in two straight Grade I races, and as a light-framed colt, his way of going doesn't seem to impose the type of pounding that would be detrimental to firing right back in two weeks.

On Saturday, we'll find out if Mage can spare the sport a little of his upbeat mojo. Right now the game could use a touch of his no-drama, all-business vibe.

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Change the Triple Crown? Let’s Not Start That Nonsense Again

I suppose it wasn't a complete surprise that the connections of Rich Strike (Keen Ice) announced Thursday that their GI Kentucky Derby winner will not run in the GI Preakness S. and will instead point for the GI Belmont S., forgoing any chance he might have had to win the Triple Crown. Owners and trainers have grown so frightened by the idea of running their horses back on two-weeks' rest that something like this was inevitable.

So this year's Preakness, missing the feel-good 80-1 winner of the Derby will not be as good as it could have been. Does that mean it's time to change the structure of the Triple Crown and put more time between the Derby and the Preakness? No.

By all accounts, Rich Strike is in the best form of his life and came out of the Derby in good order. But that wasn't good enough for owner Rick Dawson and trainer Eric Reed.

The last Derby winner to skip the Preakness was, actually, last year's winner Mandaloun (Into Mischief). But he wasn't declared the winner of the Derby until well after the race, when Medina Spirit (Protonico) was officially disqualified. Before that, there was Country House (Lookin at Lucky), who also picked up the win thanks to a disqualification. But he came out of the Derby with a problem and never raced again. Before that, there was Grindstone in 1996, who suffered an injury and was retired after the Derby. In 1985, Spend a Buck won the Derby and passed on the Preakness to shoot instead for a $2.6 million payday he was eligible for if he were to win the Jersey Derby.

You have to go all the way back to 1982 and Gato Del Sol when a Derby winner passed the Preakness fo no other reason than the connections didn't think running back so quickly was the right move. Gato Del Sol finished second in the Belmont.

I disagree with the decision made by Dawson and Reed. There's no reason why a healthy, fit horse can't run back in two weeks. There's that and they have a chance to make history by winning the Triple Crown. That's not something anyone should just toss away. But I understand where they are coming from. They genuinely believe that they are doing the right thing by the horse and there's never anything wrong with that.

Their horse. Their decision. It happens. Let's move on.

But some aren't willing to do that. Within minutes of the announcement out of Pimlico that Rich Strike would not run in the Preakness, there was the expected hue and cry that it's time to change the Triple Crown. Maybe four weeks between races. Or maybe more. Some even want to change the distances of the races, shorten them and end with the mile-and-a-quarter Belmont S. Call it the Triple Crown Lite.

Coming into the 2015 Triple Crown, the clamor to alter the Triple Crown was at a fever pitch because it had been 37 years since a horse had swept all three races and the pundits were saying winning three very tough Grade I races in a five-week span was impossible. Except it wasn't. American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile) proved it could be done. Three years later, Justify (Scat Daddy) did it again. That was two Triple Crown winners over a 4-year span and the “let's change the Triple Crown” crowd went quiet.

The reason why the Triple Crown should never be changed is simple and, I would think, obvious. One of the reasons it is so hard to win is because the spacing of the races does indeed present a huge challenge. But that's exactly the way it should be. This is very hard and that's why it has only been done 13 times and every horse who has pulled it off is, rightly, considered an immortal. Putting more time between races would cheapen the accomplishment and all future Triple Crown winners would deserve to have an asterisk next to their names. That just can't be.

Yes, a Preakness with Rich Strike is a better, more compelling race that one without him. But this year's Preakness has a lot to offer. Trainer Wayne Lukas, who would rather have his right and left arm cut off than skip the Preakness with a Derby winner, has all but taken care of that. The filly Secret Oath (Arrogate) is a terrific story and her quest to pull a Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d'Oro) and beat the boys in the Preakness makes this a fascinating race.  Derby runner-up Epicenter (Not This Time) is coming back for round two and is a very good horse who would have been the favorite whether Rich Strike ran or not.

On Preakness afternoon, Rich Strike will spend his afternoon resting and relaxing in his stall at trainer Eric Reed's Mercury Equine Center. Jockey Sonny Leon will ride a couple of $5,000 claimers at Belterra Park. It's OK. The Triple Crown will be just fine.

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Derby Winner Rich Strike To Bypass Preakness

Rich Strike (Keen Ice), who sensationally upended last Saturday's GI Kentucky Derby as the 80-1 longest shot in the field of 20, will bypass the GI Preakness S. at Pimlico May 21, owner Rick Dawson said Thursday afternoon.

“Our original plan for Rich Strike was contingent on the Kentucky Derby–should we not run in the Derby, we would point toward the Preakness, should we run in the Derby, subject to the race outcome and the condition of our horse, we would give him more recovery time and rest and run in the Belmont or another race and stay on course to run with five or six weeks' rest between races,” Dawson said in a statement released by 1/ST.

“Obviously, with our tremendous effort and win in the Derby, it's very, very tempting to alter our course and run in the Preakness at Pimlico, which would be a great honor for all our group, however, after much discussion and consideration with my trainer Eric Reed and a few others, we are going to stay with our plan of 'what's best for Ritchie is what's best for our group,' and pass on running in the Preakness, and point toward the Belmont in approximately five weeks.

“We thank the wonderful Preakness and Pimlico folks that have reached out to us and very much appreciate the invite.”

The Derby winner's defection comes just one day after trainer D. Wayne Lukas confirmed that GI Longines Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Oath (Arrogate) would back up in the second leg of the Triple Crown. Epicenter (Not This Time), who finished 3/4 of a length behind Rich Strike in the Derby, is also moving on to Old Hilltop, while a decision on third-placed Zandon (Upstart) is pending. The latter's stablemate Early Voting (Gun Runner) is already a confirmed starter in the Preakness and Derby fourth Simplification (Not This Time) is already on the Pimlico backstretch.

Claimed for $30,000 out of a second-out maiden victory at Churchill last September, Rich Strike was beaten 14 lengths into fifth by Epicenter in the Dec. 26 Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds and entered the Derby off a third behind Tiz the Bomb (Hit It a Bomb) in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park Apr. 2.

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