Secret Oath, Epicenter Confirmed for Preakness

Trainer D. Wayne Lukas confirmed Wednesday that GI Longines Kentucky Oaks heroine Secret Oath (Arrogate) will become the latest filly to take on males in the GI Preakness S., to be held May 21 at Pimlico. The race will also feature a rematch of the top two finishers from the GI Kentucky Derby, as the connections of beaten Derby favorite Epicenter (Not This Time), who appeared home free until passed on the inside in the final strides by 80-1 longshot Rich Strike (Keen Ice), will head to Baltimore for the Triple Crown's middle jewel.

Lukas, who has won the Preakness six times, confirmed Briland Farm's Secret Oath for the 1 3/16-mile test after terming her 'probable' earlier in the day. Lukas, who won his first of four Kentucky Derbys with the filly Winning Colors in 1988, said he had discussed the Preakness for Secret Oath every day with owner-breeders Rob and Stacy Mitchell since her Oaks victory. He added that Secret Oath will only run in Grade I route races from here on out.

“We agonize over it,” Lukas said at Churchill Downs Wednesday morning. “She's gone back to the track, and she was very sharp out there today. I don't see anything about her that would change our decision right now [regarding the Preakness]. She's training well. She's bright. She's sharp and out there playing.

“Let's put it this way: The Derby horses pretty much all had a hard race. Her race was not hard on her,” he added. “Now, you sit back and say, 'Epicenter is going to be the favorite. Chad Brown is putting that other horse [Wood Memorial runner-up Early Voting] in.' What I always did on those, is I list all the horses going and say, 'Can I beat this one?' Yes. 'Can I beat that one?' Maybe. Go right down the line. But I still don't know who's going.

“Epicenter will be difficult. He's a legitimate favorite. He's a very good horse. Nobody can go over there and think they'll just run by him. He is going to be awfully tough to beat. You are taking a shot if you take him on,” Lukas continued. “The other thing that always factors in is that when they are really good like she is right now, you take advantage of that moment, that time frame. We've got it planned out all the way to the Breeders' Cup, but there's a lot of road until then. Things happen.”

Secret Oath jogged a lap around Churchill Downs and then jogged more in the track's mile chute Wednesday morning under Danielle Rosier.

Secret Oath will attempt to become the second filly in three years to capture the Preakness after eventual champion Swiss Skydiver (Daredevil) bested Derby victor Authentic (Into Mischief) in 2020's rescheduled October renewal.

Not joining the Preakness lineup, fellow Lukas trainee Ethereal Road (Quality Road) may instead make an appearance on the Preakness undercard in the Sir Barton S. Squeaking into the Kentucky Derby field after the defection of Un Ojo (Laoban), the colt was scratched by his trainer on the eve of the Derby.

David Fiske, Winchell Thoroughbreds' longtime bloodstock manager, confirmed after speaking with trainer Steve Asmussen Wednesday morning that Epicenter will run in the Preakness. The GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby winner returned to the track for training earlier in the morning at Churchill Downs, with Asmussen liking what he saw as Epicenter jogged and galloped under Roberto Howell.
Plans call for Epicenter to work an easy half-mile Monday and van to Pimlico Tuesday.

“Steve said he was really pleased with how he went back to the track this morning,” Fiske said. “He said he looked great. I mean, we were going. It was just that [Epicenter] needed to tell us that he wanted to go.”

After watching Epicenter train, Asmussen called bay colt “a remarkable physical [specimen]. He's very strong.”

“I thought he traveled well,” he said of Epicenter's first day back training. “Roberto said he was himself, more of the same. Being himself is a good thing. I thought he took the Derby really well. He laid down like he normally does. He's been nice and relaxed and traveled really good on the racetrack this morning.”

Other confirmed starters for the Preakness include Early Voting (Gun Runner), Simplification (Not This Time), Un Ojo (Laoban), Skippylongstocking (Exaggerator) and Creative Minister (Creative Cause), while possible starters include Derby third Zandon (Upstart), Rattle N Roll (Connect) and Shake Em Loose (Shakin It Up).

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Rich Strike’s Sister ‘A Gift’ for New Breeder Scott Miller

Scott Miller has only been involved in breeding for a few years, but he's more than happy to stick around for a while longer now that he owns a half-sister to a Kentucky Derby winner.

Miller's mare Lode Lady (Posse) is the first foal out of the Smart Strike mare Gold Strike, the dam of newly-acclaimed Derby hero Rich Strike (Keen Ice). Foaled in 2008, Lode Lady made three trips to the winner's circle at Woodbine and earned over $150,000 during her racing career before ending up with Miller eight years later.

With only two starters but no winners on her produce record so far, Lode Lady foaled an Honest Mischief filly this year at Waldorf Farm in New York. While the mare was slated to visit a regional stallion this spring, she is now bound for Kentucky to be bred to Vino Rosso, Spendthrift Farm's champion son of Curlin.

“She had her Honest Mischief foal and the next thing you know, [Waldorf Farm manager Kenny Toye] calls me and says, 'Hey, this mare's half-brother named Rich Strike is running in the Derby,'” Miller said. “I told him that at 80-1 it wasn't going to do anything, but Kenny had looked at the pedigree. He said the horse could go the distance and that he thought Rich Strike could win. Sure enough, he did. This is a dream that you would never believe could happen.”

Hailing from Hammonton, New Jersey, Miller has been involved in the equestrian world for many years, but only recently got involved in the racing industry.

“I started getting into Thoroughbreds right before COVID started,” Miller explained. “I decided I was too old for hack riding. A friend of mine called me and said she had a few Thoroughbred yearlings available. I ended up taking them from her and racing them. I really enjoyed it even though I never made a dime with them.”

It wasn't long before Miller was looking to add a few broodmares to his stable. He got in touch with breeder Jon Marshall. The Texas-based horseman was selling two mares along with their foals for a combined $40,000.

Miller decided to take only the mares, Stormy Tak (Stormy Atlantic) and Lode Lady, and let Marshall sell the foals. Stormy Tak's foal, a son of Gun Runner, went on to bring $270,000 as a yearling. Lode Lady's yearling brought only $25,000.

Lode Lady and her Honest Mischief filly with Waldorf Farm's Jerry Bilinski and Kenny Toye | photo courtesy Waldorf Farm

Miller could never have predicted that today, Lode Lady might have the more valuable pedigree of the pair, but he is grateful to Marshall for helping him get his start as a breeder.

“The day Rich Strike won the Kentucky Derby, Jon and his wife called to congratulate me,” Marshall said. “I told him that he should be sick because he gave me the mare, but he said he was happy for me. I am relatively new at this, so he has been kind of a mentor for me.”

While Miller has big plans for Lode Lady, he has no immediate intentions of putting her through a sales ring.

“It's hard to sell something when someone gives you a gift,” he explained. “I really have no money invested into this horse. Jon basically gave her to me and the only thing I have invested is the stud fees, so why would I get rid of her?”

As for the mare's Honest Mischief filly, who was foaled in February, Miller is still not sure where she could end up.

“I almost always sell the foals, but I just don't know with her,” he admitted. “I've thought about keeping her and running her myself, but we may test the waters and put her in a sale. This foal is special in my eye. She's beautiful with good size and bone.”

Dr. Jerry Bilinski, who oversees Miller's broodmare band at Waldorf Farm, can remember one similar experience with a sudden, favorable pedigree update when his stallion Cormorant was represented by 1994 GI Kentucky Derby winner Go for Gin.

“I was busy on the farm when I got a call that night that Go for Gin had won the Derby,” he recalled. “I didn't even watch the race because I was working away.”

“It's always interesting because you have the horse that wins the Derby, but then you have all these peripheral horses that suddenly become more valuable,” Bilinski said. “In this case, this mare was supposed to be bred in New York but then 48 hours later, she's on her way to Kentucky. It just shows you that lightning in one bottle can strike and when it does, it oftentimes strikes in other bottles around the horse community.”

While Miller does not typically bet, his wife did place a win bet on Rich Strike.

“Right after the race she said she wanted to go buy a handbag,” Miller recounted with a laugh.

“I'm lucky that I got these mares and got connected with the right people,” he said. “There are a lot of good people in this industry that you don't ever hear about. For Jon to give me these mares and then for this to happen, I still can't believe it.”

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Taking Stock: First Crops Yield Classic Winners

Rich Strike (Keen Ice), upset winner of the Gl Kentucky Derby at 80-1, and Secret Oath (Arrogate), the powerful Gl Kentucky Oaks winner, are members of the first crops of their respective sires, both of whom were late-developing Classic-distance horses. Keen Ice and Arrogate each won his first stakes race at Saratoga in late August at three, in the Gl Travers S. at 10 furlongs. Keen Ice won the “Midsummer Classic” in 2015 at 16-1, defeating Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in a shocker. Arrogate won the race the next year at 12-1 by an astonishing 13 1/2 lengths, setting a track record of 1:59.36 in the process. At stud, neither was expected to make a notable impression until his first crop was three, and that's how things played out. Arrogate finished 10th among leading first-crop sires of 2021 and Keen Ice 12th. Neither was represented by a black-type winner last year.

It's a bit of a different story now. Keen Ice and Arrogate are the sires of two black-type winners apiece, which wouldn't be anything to shout home about, except they've accounted for the two most prestigious races for 3-year-old colts and fillies.

By Curlin, Keen Ice was raced by Jerry Crawford's Donegal, whose Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo) came from far back to finish fifth in the Derby behind Rich Strike. Crawford, a client of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, has a penchant for purchasing late-running 10-furlong horses, which I wrote about in this space two weeks ago, and Keen Ice, a $120,000 yearling, fit that profile. Initially trained by Dale Romans, Keen Ice was transferred to Todd Pletcher sometime during his 4-year-old campaign, and for Pletcher he won the Gll Suburban over 10 furlongs at five. However, Keen Ice only won three of 24 starts during his career, though he placed in numerous Grade l races for both Romans and Pletcher and earned $3.4 million. As a strict come-from-behind horse, he was frequently pace-traffic/trouble-compromised in races, most of which were usually too short for him. The 2017 edition of the Gl Whitney at Saratoga over nine furlongs is a case in point: Gun Runner, a son of Candy Ride (Arg), led for most of the race and won by 5 1/4 lengths; early on, Keen Ice trailed in last after a bad start but rallied for second.

Arrogate, a gray son of Unbridled's Song trained by Bob Baffert, was literally and figuratively a horse of a different color from Keen Ice. He had speed and the ability to carry it a distance, plus the acceleration to outrun opponents from anywhere in a race. He won his Travers leading throughout, but in a celebrated Gl Breeders' Cup Classic later that year against California Chrome, Arrogate impressively ran down his pace-setting older rival, who looked a winner in deep stretch only before Arrogate passed him to win. Keen Ice finished third, 10 3/4 lengths behind California Chrome, after getting bumped after the break and closing from far back.

Arrogate won seven of 11 starts, earned a North American record $17.4 million, and went to stud at owner Juddmonte Farms for $75,000, the highest fee among newcomers for the 2018 season. Gun Runner, who was retired to Three Chimneys, was second, with a $70,000 fee. Keen Ice began his career for $20,000 at Calumet, which had bought into the horse for his 5-year-old campaign. Keen Ice now stands for $7,500, Arrogate is dead, and Gun Runner, who led all North American-based first-crop runners last year, stood for an advertised fee of $125,000 this year, if you could get to him.

It's all about first-crop 2-year-old performances for the commercial marketplace, but the 10-furlong Classic in Louisville is another matter altogether.

Stamina Lines
Calumet's interest in Keen Ice was understandable for several reasons. The farm's present ownership has a keen interest in standing and breeding stayers, and champion turf horse English Channel, a staying son of Curlin's sire Smart Strike, was Calumet's best recent stallion.

Smart Strike, a son of Mr. Prospector, was known for reliably transmitting stamina; aside from English Channel and Curlin, his sire sons also include Lookin at Lucky, who like Curlin was a champion and Gl Preakness winner. Lookin at Lucky sired the 65-1 Derby winner Country House, who was awarded the Classic on the disqualification of Maximum Security in 2019.

Likewise, Curlin, who wasn't highly placed on the 2012 first-crop list, is a conduit for stamina; his sons and daughters have been particularly active in the runups for the Derby and Oaks through the years, and in 2021, Malathaat won the Oaks. This year, Nest was second to Secret Oath. Curlin got Gl Belmont S. winner Palace Malice from his first crop and Gl Preakness winner Exaggerator a few crops later, and he's one of the most reliable stallions for siring Classic-type runners.

The Mr. Prospector horse Fappiano is also responsible for a notable stamina branch, primarily through Derby winner Unbridled–the sire of Empire Maker and Unbridled's Song. The branch through Empire Maker includes Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and Derby winner Always Dreaming. Derby winner Real Quiet is a son of the Fappiano horse Quiet American. Another Fappiano branch through Cryptoclearance leads to Candy Ride and his high-flying son Gun Runner, whose first crop contains among others Gl Arkansas Derby winner Cyberknife, Gl Santa Anita Derby winner Taiba, and last year's champion 2-year-old filly Echo Zulu, who lost for the first time in the Oaks.

Unbridled also sired the first-crop Derby winner Grindstone, who wasn't much of a stallion but did sire the Belmont and Travers winner Birdstone. The latter, in turn, sired two memorable first-crop runners: 50-1 Derby winner Mine That Bird and 12-1 Belmont S. winner Summer Bird.

Unbridled's best sire son Unbridled's Song was generally a transmitter of more speed than others from the line. Though his daughters have become outstanding producers of high-level runners, his sire sons have been found wanting, and Arrogate was considered the potential heir until his untimely death in 2020. That mantle now belongs to Lane's End's Liam's Map.

First-Crop Engineering
When stallions like Arrogate and Keen Ice retire, the general thinking of stud farms and breeders is to send them faster and more precocious mares to balance their late development and stamina. Juddmonte, for instance, was actively looking for these types of stakes-winning mares for Arrogate, who was unraced at two.

Ironically, Secret Oath is from a mare that doesn't fit this profile, though her dam was a well-performed runner.

Secret Oath, who was bred and is raced by Briland Farm, is from the Quiet American mare Absinthe Minded, a multiple Graded-placed black-type winner of $607,747. Secret Oath is therefore inbred 4×3 to Fappiano on the sire-line cross (both sire and broodmare sire trace to Fappiano). Her dam failed to win in three starts at two, and she didn't become a stakes winner until she was four, when she also placed in the Gl Apple Blossom. She won two more black-type races at five, when she again placed in the Apple Blossom.

Rich Strike is the 10th Derby winner bred by Calumet, but the first for the farm's current ownership. Like Secret Oath, Rich Strike is out of a stakes-winning mare – Canadian Classic and Graded stakes winner Gold Strike, a daughter of Smart Strike. Like the Oaks winner, the Derby winner is inbred on the sire-line cross, in his case quite closely, 3×2, to Smart Strike. The latter, by the way, is also the broodmare sire of Mine That Bird and his half-brother Dullahan, another Donegal runner, who was third in the Derby. Dullahan was sired by the Unbridled's Song stallion Even the Score and was bred similarly to Mine That Bird, as both were 5×3 to Mr. Prospector on the sire-line cross through Unbridled and Smart Strike.

There is precedent for the close inbreeding of Rich Strike in other Calumet Derby winners from the past. Iron Liege, for example, was 2×3 to full brothers Bull Dog (Fr) and Sir Gallahad lll (Fr), and Tim Tam was 3×3 to Bull Dog, so perhaps it was a calculated decision to inbreed to Smart Strike so closely in Rich Strike's case. At the least, his dam had to be one of the better mares to visit Keen Ice in his first year at stud.

Calumet had purchased Gold Strike, a champion Canadian 3-year-old filly, for $230,000 in 2015, and at the time she was already the dam of Llanarmon, a Sky Mesa filly who'd won the Gll Natalma S. at two. Llanarmon went on to place in the Woodbine Oaks and also won the Carotene S. at nine furlongs on turf. Gold Strike was herself a Grade lll winner who'd won the Woodbine Oaks and placed in the Queen's Plate against colts over 10 furlongs, which gives Rich Strike plenty of stamina on both sides of the pedigree.

In fact, Rich Strike's pedigree probably contains much more stamina than necessary for the U.S. racing ecosystem, but a confluence of factors in the Derby, including a rapid early pace– the first quarter of :21.78 was faster than the :22.76 set by champion sprinter Jackie's Warrior in the Gl Churchill Downs S.– and an inspired ride helped to showcase it.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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Smart Digging Strikes a Rich Seam

Well, if it was hard enough to make sense of his performance, then don't expect things to appear any more conventional when you look at the pedigree of Rich Strike. His grandsire and dam share the same paternity. His mother was discarded a couple of years ago for $1,700; his half-sister was claimed only last month for $5,000; and his sire's only previous stakes winner had emerged in Puerto Rico.

But if communal incredulity over the GI Kentucky Derby must have been flavored with extra piquancy for the breeders of the winner, who lost him to a $30,000 claim at the same track last September, then the bigger picture might yet permit them ample consolation.

Most obviously, albeit in somewhat haphazard fashion, a 10th Derby winner has refreshed the record established by Calumet Farm in its heyday as the premier Classic brand of the Bluegrass and highlights the wholesome aspirations sustaining its regeneration.

Eight Calumet homebreds won the Derby between 1941 and 1968, under Warren Wright, Sr. and then his widow Lucille, but the one subsequent success prior to Saturday had poignantly come in the same year, 1991, that the farm declared bankruptcy–courtesy of Strike the Gold, whose name obtains a curious resonance now that the baton has been seized by Rich Strike.

The Kwiatkowski rescue eventually paved the way in 2012 for Calumet's lease to Brad M. Kelley, who immediately found a horse to condense his priorities–not just for the renewal of the Calumet legacy, but also for a maverick challenge to the short-termism he evidently believes to be undermining the modern American Thoroughbred. Oxbow exhibited a teak constitution in campaigning without pause from October through July, taking in seven states and six different distances. At stud, admittedly, Oxbow struggled for commercial traction, but last year he came up with one of the key Classic protagonists in Hot Rod Charlie, who had changed hands for $17,000 as a short yearling.

Now Calumet has achieved virtually the same thing with Keen Ice. He, too, had to demonstrate rare physical resilience in soaking up four campaigns, the first three for Donegal Racing before Calumet entered partnership. And while his only two wins outside maiden company included one that nobody could sensibly take at face value, when shocking a Triple Crown winner in the GI Travers S., he banked $3.4 million in 24 starts, 15 at Grade I level. Much like his son last Saturday, he was never happier than when able to reel in a hot pace.

The Calumet model will always be too idiosyncratic for many commercial breeders, so presumably a monster opening book of 176 for Keen Ice featured a significant contribution from the farm's home herd. The average achieved by the resulting yearlings fell short of a (rather stiff) opening fee of $20,000 and traffic was quick to slide, through books of 73, 43 and 48. Keen Ice is now down to $7,500, the same as Oxbow, who himself was supported with 187 mares in his fourth book but was down to 15 three years later. Now, for a second year running, an ostensibly “uncommercial” Calumet sire is demanding renewed attention–this time with a Derby winner at the first attempt.

Calumet has more to celebrate than regret, then, despite allowing Rich Strike to slip from their racetrack program. Okay, so nobody should be running a horse under that kind of tag if he is 17 lengths better than the grade. But the team will definitely be hoping that Rich Strike can corroborate his breakout as well as did, say, Mine That Bird (Birdstone) when he proceeded to run Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d'Oro) to a length in the GI Preakness S.

Keen Ice, after all, is earlier into his career than was Oxbow when Hot Rod Charlie made us ask how much he might owe to sire (his dam having already produced an Eclipse champion). If Keen Ice has really done very little besides this jaw-dropper, then there remains a feasible case for saying that his stock will only just be finding their stride with maturity. He has managed 20 other winners this year already, at a 27% ratio that stands up to the likes of Practical Joke, Connect and Caravaggio among rivals in the intake maintaining a higher fee. And while the Calumet breeding program can hardly match such quantity with seamless quality, it will be reliably oriented towards mares that pack in slow-burning assets of robustness and staying power.

That willingness to play a long game, to remain stubbornly out of step with the fast-buck breeders who mate to sell, not run, is predicated on a faith that the Thoroughbred will ultimately have to adapt to a very different environment: one where trainers must can the pharmaceuticals, and where turf/synthetics are no longer commercially toxic. Kelley and his team, on that basis, will hope someday to do exactly what Keen Ice's son did on Saturday, and catapult from the neglected margins to the heart of the action.

Quite apart from promotion of his sire, then, they have another reason to hope that Rich Strike may have hit a genuine seam of gold–and that's to vindicate the kind of thinking that governs Calumet matings. Because here, too, Rich Strike is not an orthodox project.

True, one of the greatest breeding operations in history recently came up with a European champion with inbreeding of equally daring proximity: Enable (GB) (Nathaniel {GB}) is by a grandson of Sadler's Wells out of one of his daughters. Moreover Juddmonte had previously produced GI Pacific Classic winner Skimming by matching one son of Northern Dancer, Nureyev, with a daughter of another in Lyphard; while their sister matriarchs Viviana and Willstar were by Nureyev out of a daughter of Nijinsky (also, of course, by Northern Dancer). So if duplicating a noble influence as closely as the second and third generations was good enough for Prince Khalid, it should be good enough for the rest of us.

In this instance, Calumet chose to double down on Smart Strike–who gave us the sire of Keen Ice, Curlin, as well as Rich Strike's dam, the accomplished Canadian filly Gold Strike. That was an extremely hygienic choice. Smart Strike has proved a fine sire of sires. The farm's lamented English Channel, in his sphere, absolutely bore comparison with Curlin, while Lookin At Lucky is criminally undervalued as a sire of Derby and Breeders' Cup Classic winners now down to just $15,000. But the key to thickening out a pedigree with Smart Strike is surely the depth of his own family, as a half-brother to Dance Smartly (Danzig) out of one of the four champions foaled by one of the great misnomers, No Class (Nodouble).

But that's only the start of the way this pedigree has been carefully inlaid. The success of Smart Strike's sire Mr. Prospector opened unexpected horizons for his only older sibling Search For Gold, a stakes-placed sprinter at two. And though his stud career proved little more than opportunist, Search For Gold resurfaces here as sire of Rich Strike's third dam, Panning For Gold, a minor stakes winner at the old Greenwood Raceway.

Panning For Gold was mated with another forgotten name, Dixieland Brass–a son of Dixieland Band who broke down when odds-on for the Florida Derby and ended up standing in British Columbia for R.J. and Lois Bennett of Flying Horse Farm–who had added her to the home broodmare band a couple of years before his arrival. The resulting filly was unraced, but it was her match with Smart Strike that produced Gold Strike for Harlequin Ranches: champion sophomore filly of Canada, on the strength of her wins in the GIII Selene S. and Woodbine Oaks, and now dam of a Kentucky Derby winner.

All six of Gold Strike's named foals prior to Rich Strike had been fillies, notably GII Natalma S. winner Llanarmon (Sky Mesa). The latter's endeavors ensured that Calumet had to pay $230,000 for Gold Strike, though already 13, when she was offered carrying a sibling to Llanarmon at the Keeneland November Sale of 2015. When she went to the same sale four years later, however, she was picked up for just $1,700 by Tommy Wente of St. Simon Place. At that stage, eight years after foaling Llanarmon, she had been either been fallow or produced unraced foals; Rich Strike himself was listed as an anonymous weanling colt by Keen Ice.

Wente has a remarkable eye for a bargain mare. Incredibly, in fact, Rich Strike only got into the Derby because he had one more qualifying point than Rattle N Roll (Connect)–bred by St. Simon Place after his dam was picked up for $20,000 at the 2016 November Sale. That mare was cashed out for $585,000 in the same ring last November.

As it was, St. Simon was represented in the GI Kentucky Oaks by Hidden Connection (also by Connect), whose dam was a $9,500 steal before similarly making her home run at $450,000 at Fasig-Tipton last fall.

Unfortunately Gold Strike has evidently become a difficult breeder, with no foal since. She is in the best of hands right now, being evaluated for breeding, but obviously the odds are steepening at the age of 20. Regardless of how things play out, hats off to Wente. Anyone can get lucky and do something like that once, but this guy has done it time and again.

One other foal bred during Gold Strike's residence at Calumet did make the track the year after she was culled. My Blonde Mary, a filly by Oxbow who has won three claimers in 29 starts, was hooked for a basement tag at Tampa Bay last month by trainer Douglas Nunn and Winner Circle Stables LLC. Doubtless they had spotted her half-brother grab third in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks just a couple of days previously. Alert business, if so, for another creature of highly volatile value!

The real status of this family, not to mention his own stud prospects, may vary wildly according to what Rich Strike does next. Perhaps it will simply turn out that those Turfway synthetics were not to his taste, and/or that he has reserves of stamina that could only be drawn out, even at 10 furlongs, by the kind of ferocious pace that suited his sire. But if the jury must remain out, equally, on the lessons available in his pedigree, for now we must credit Calumet for achieving something so very conspicuous with such a “striking” blend of genetic flavors.

In addition to the Smart Strike overload, and the mirroring of Mr. Prospector with his brother along the bottom line, we should note extra seams of “ore” from their dam Gold Digger behind Keen Ice himself. His fourth dam, and absolutely pivotal to his appeal, is the Emory Hamilton matriarch Chic Shirine–a daughter of Mr. Prospector.

And actually there's another sliver of Mr P. lurking via the second dam of Awesome Again, damsire of Keen Ice. But the main service of Awesome Again, for those breeding to Keen Ice, is another extremely close reinforcement: his sire Deputy Minister is also responsible for the dam of Curlin. That gives a 3×3 footprint to one of the all-time broodmare sires. Almost as potent in Keen Ice, then, as Smart Strike in Rich Strike. This precious payload of Deputy Minister, combined with that Chic Shirine–Too Chic (Blushing Groom {Fr}) bottom line, will perhaps make Keen Ice especially attractive to anyone who wouldn't mind retaining a filly.

So Rich Strike and his sire each intensify one of the key influences on the modern breed. For both horses, what happened on Saturday may yet turn out to be too good to be true. In view of what Calumet stands for today, however, it would be extremely healthy if each proved able to build on this breakthrough.

You can be sure that some commercial breeders will no more buy into Keen Ice than they did Oxbow, following Hot Rod Charlie. But it's auspicious at least to see people challenged in such similar fashion, two years running. There may not be big bucks at ringside, yet, for the kind of hardiness, stamina and old-fashioned depth of pedigree sought by Calumet for their stallion roster. Perhaps, however, that might gradually begin to change as people see how these attributes, integral to the farm's original glory, remain just what you need for the first Saturday in May and that we will only need more of the same, if we continue cleaning up the game as we must.

Kelley and his team have realized that some of the least fashionable assets of the Thoroughbred are exactly what can make it most sustainable in an uncertain future. This particular Derby winner may or may not prove eligible to change perceptions and it won't necessarily be the Calumet team who find the stallions that ultimately end up doing so. But that won't alter the odds that the eccentricities of today may well become the orthodoxy of tomorrow.

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