Week In Review: The Horse to Beat in the Derby? It’s Sierra Leone

When Fierceness (City of Light) put on a show in the GI Florida Derby there didn't seem to be any question over who the favorite would be in the GI Kentucky Derby. The Mike Repole-homebred put on quite a show that day, winning by a record 13 1/2 lengths while earning a 110 Beyer figure, the fastest dirt number recorded by any horse this year. He gave the impression that if he could duplicate that race in the Kentucky Derby, there wouldn't be a horse on the planet that could beat him that day.

Then again…

Just seven days after the Florida Derby, Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) turned in a special performance of his own in the GI Blue Grass S. at Keeneland. He didn't win by 13 1/2 lengths. The margin was just 1 1 /2 lengths. He didn't get a triple digit Beyer. It was a 98. It was a very different race than the one turned in by Fierceness but was every bit as special, maybe even more so.

His story really begins at the 2022 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale. The Coolmore team and Peter Brant have a sharp eye for talent and it looks like this was a horse they had to have. They paid $2.3 million for him, which made him the sale topper. With Brant involved, the horse was sent to his main trainer, Chad Brown.

He broke his maiden in November at Aqueduct and came back in the GII Remsen, where he staged an epic duel with Dornoch (Good Magic). He lost by a nose but Dornoch was hugging the rail on a day where the inside was the place to be.

Sierra Leone kicked off his 3-year-old season winning the GII Risen Star S. at the Fair Grounds. Catching Freedom (Constitution), who was third, went on to win the GII Louisiana Derby. Resilience (Into Mischief) was fourth in the Risen Star and came back in his next start to win the GII Wood Memorial.

But it was the Blue Grass where Sierra Leone really showed how special he is. He acted up prior to the start and delayed the race. That's oftentimes a kiss of death, but it proved not to be a problem. With Tyler Gaffalione aboard he dropped back to ninth in the ten-horse field before launching his bid. Midway on the turn, he still had to get past six horses, which wasn't any sort problem. He came with monstrous, ground gobbling strides and flew past Just a Touch (Justify) to win going away. He ran like a horse who should love the mile-and-quarter and one who has yet to peak.

“We're just trying to maintain pretty much the way he's been his whole life, a special horse,” said Brown, who is 0-for-7 in the Derby. “I don't know if they ever fully figure it out, but he's  only had a handful of starts.”

So this was a race where Sierra Leone had to fight and show what he is capable of. He also beat some top quality horses in Just A Touch and GII Fountain of Youth winner Dornoch, who was fourth.

That wasn't at all the case for Fierceness in the Florida Derby. Perfectly ridden by Hall of Famer John Velazquez, he was wisely taken to the lead and Velazquez was able to slow the pace down. Fierceness was in front the whole way while posting tepid fractions. He went the first quarter in 24.06, the half in 47.50 and the three quarters In 1:11.31. No one was ever going to catch him with the trip he was able to work out. And to make matters even easier on him, neither of his top two challengers fired. Conquest Warrior (City of Light) was fourth, beaten 16 lengths. Hades (Awesome Slew), the GIII Holy Bull S. winner, was even worse, finishing fifth, beaten 19 3/4 lengths. Catalytic (Catalina Cruiser), a 29-1 shot, was second and 21-1 shot Grand Mo the First (Uncle Mo) was third. Both will be among the longest shots on the board in the Kentucky Derby.

Then there is Fierceness's erratic nature. He runs well every other start and seems unable to overcome any adversity. In the Derby, with 20 horses, he's never going to get a clear, uncontested lead and a slow pace and probably, at some point will encounter some trouble. It's a very hard race in which to get a trouble-free trip.

When it comes to Fierceness-versus-Sierra Leone, the deciding factor could be the pace. As strong a late kick as he has, Sierra Leone still doesn't want to be 19th in the Derby with someone, maybe Fierceness, setting slow fractions. If Fierceness can get loose on the lead he can absolutely win, Just don't expect that to happen in a 20-horse race where there is usually a pretty quick pace.

Even without Bob Baffert's participation, this looks like a deep, Derby field with a lot of quality. Can Fierceness win? Despite his tendency to throw in bad races, absolutely. But he's going to have to beat Sierra Leone and so will 18 other horses. He's the horse to beat.

Post Time is on a Roll

The GII Carter at Aqueduct has seen better days. Once one of the most important sprint races on the calendar, it was downgraded to a Grade II for this year and the race attracted all of four horses. But the winner was notable.

Even with the small field, this was the biggest test to date for the Brittany Russell-trained Post Time (Frosted). He came into the race with seven wins from eight career starts but some were arguing that he was just beating up on inferior competition in Maryland. His lone defeat had come in the Perryville S. at Keeneland, the only time he had run outside of Maryland.

As expected, Super Chow (Lord Nelson) got off to an uncontested lead and was allowed to set easy fractions. He went in 24.38 and 48.18 and Post Time was last. He then got carried out to the middle of the track by Super Chow, who has a bad habit of bearing out in the stretch. Despite all that, he was able to get the win, beating Castle Chaos (Palace Music) by a neck.

With Elite Power (Curlin) and Gunite (Gun Runner) both having been retired, Post Time could be on his way to an Eclipse Award.

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Champion 2-Year-Old Fierceness Leads 346 Triple Crown Nominations

2023's Eclipse champion 2-year-old Fierceness (City of Light) leads a list of 346 nominations to the 2024 Triple Crown according to a Tuesday release by the Kentucky Racing Communications Office. Last weekend's GIII Holy Bull S. third is one of 20 nominees owned by Repole Stables and one of 54 trained by Todd Pletcher to lead their respective categories. A further 18 horses were nominated by Bob Baffert and Brad Cox respectively. While the total number of nominees is down from last year, there are a record 47 potential runners from Japan. Other notable nominees include: Nysos (Nyquist), Track Phantom (Quality Road), Hades (Awesome Slew), Mystik Dan (Goldencents) and Catching Freedom (Constitution). Four fillies, Candied (Candy Ride {Arg}), Gun Song (Gun Runner), Life Talk (Gun Runner) and Kopion (Omaha Beach), were also nominated.

3-year-olds can continued to be nominated to the Triple Crown via a $6,000 payment through April 1.

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Arcangelo in Fine Shape After Travers Victory

Arcangelo (Arrogate) was in fine shape Sunday following his victory in the GI Travers S. at Saratoga Saturday, but connections will take their time before picking out a next start for the sophomore.

“He came back well and is full of himself today,” said trainer Jena Antonucci. “Of course the Breeders' Cup is on the radar, but horses don't care about schedules or spreadsheets. We'll do what we've been doing and give him his space. We'll let him pave the way.”

Arcangelo added the Travers to his win in the GI Belmont S. in June.

“I'm just so glad the race has helped to validate he's not a fluke or a one-hit wonder,” said Antonucci. “It allows him to be validated, and I'm grateful for that. Horse and team, I'm most proud of that.”

Travers runner-up Disarm (Gun Runner), who closed for second while making his first start with blinkers, could make his next start in the Sept. 23 GI Pennsylvania Derby at Parx.

“He just seems to get incrementally better,” said Winchell Thoroughbreds racing manager David Fiske said. “[The blinkers] didn't hurt. It's hard to say how much of a difference they made because he did run some pretty credible races without the blinkers. I suspect he'll run back with them because like I said, they didn't hurt him at all.”

Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher reported Sunday Tapit Trice (Tapit) and Forte (Violence) emerged well from their respective third- and fourth-place finishes in the Travers.

“They're doing good,” Pletcher said. “Both of them looked well this morning.”

Asked for future plans for the pair, Pletcher said, “We'll give it a few days to see how they are and come up with a game plan.”

Pletcher said he is pleased with how Repole Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Michael House's Nest (Curlin) came out of her third-place finish as the favorite in Friday's GI Personal Ensign S., just her second start this year following her 2022 champion 3-year-old filly campaign.

“She's doing good,” Pletcher said. “She bounced out of the race well. It was hard to make up ground on a sloppy, gooey track when a quality horse gets loose on the lead. I thought she ran hard. It was only her second race of the year so, hopefully, it moves her forward.”

Pletcher said Nest will be pointed to either the GII Beldame S. during the Belmont at the Big A fall meet or the GI Juddmonte Spinster S. at Keeneland. Both 1 1/8-mile races are Oct. 8.

Repole Stable's Fierceness (City of Light), tabbed a 'TDN Rising Star' following his impressive debut victory at Saratoga Friday, will likely tackle Grade I company for his second start, according to Pletcher.

“I think the [Oct. 7 GI] Champagne is the most logical next start,” Pletcher said.

Of the colt's maiden score, Pletcher said, “He was very impressive. He had been training really well leading up to it. We were expecting a good effort, but he actually delivered an even better one than we were hoping for.”

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Friday’s Racing Insights: Not This Time Colt Tackles Two Turns In Spa Grass Debut

1st-SAR, $136K, Msw, 2yo, 1 1/16mT, 1:10 p.m.
Purchased by St. Elias Stable and Repole Stable for $875,000 at the '22 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, TIRELESS (Not This Time) will be taking on two turns in his first career bow over the grass at Saratoga on Friday. Trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Irad Ortiz, the dark bay colt's dam Kitty Union (Union Rags) was purchased by Rosilyn Polan at the '21 Keeneland November Sale for $160,000 with a colt in-utero by Improbable. Tireless is out of an extended female family which counts third dam Tizso (Cee's Tizzy), who produced GI Haskell Invitational S. hero Paynter (Awesome Again) and is a full-sister to Horse of the Year Tiznow. TJCIS PPS

6th-SAR, $136K, Msw, 2yo, 6f, 4:00 p.m.
Switching to the Spa main, a pair of colts are set for their maiden trips. As a weanling, Change of Command (Into Mischief) went for $570,000 at the Fasig-Tipton November Mixed Sale before fetching $1.05-million less than a year later at the Keeneland September Sale. The Shug McGaughey trainee, who will have Jose Ortiz aboard, is out of a dam who is a full-sister to MGSW Mrs McDougal (Medaglia d'Oro).

Also entered is Kaleem Shah's Billal (Street Sense), a $725,000 '22 Keeneland September grad from Bill Mott's shedrow, who will be ridden by Florent Geroux. Dam Bambalina (Bernardini) was purchased by Repole Stables at the '20 Keeneland November Mixed Sale for $270,000 with Billal in-utero. She's out of Champion grass mare Perfect Sting (Red Ransom), who is also responsible for GSW Smart Sting (Smart Strike). TJCIS PPS

4th-DMR, $82K, Msw, 2yo, 6 1/2f, 7:29 p.m.
Heading out to Del Mar Thoroughbred Club, a competitive group of 2-year-olds will be looking to strut their stuff. Indispensable (Constitution) for trainer John Sadler was a $825,000 buy at the Keeneland September Sale and his extended female family includes MGSWs Gulch Approval (Gulch) and Rusty Slipper (Lemon Drop Kid). His dam High Performer (Candy Ride {Arg}), a full-sister to SW Chocopologie, was purchased by Hunter Valley Farm while in-foal–yielding a colt–to Omaha Beach for $130,000 at the '21 Keeneland November Mixed Sale and she was bred back to that sire, which produced a filly Mar. 15.

Bob Baffert has a pair of firsters ready to fire in Wynstock (Solomini), who initially sold as a yearling for $50,000 at the Keeneland September Sale before going this past spring for $700,000 during OBS April. The New York-bred is his dam's first offspring. Last but certainly not least, is Don Alberto homebred Ultra Power (Curlin), who is out of dual Champion female Unique Bella (Tapit). She is the daughter of GI Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic heroine Unrivaled Belle (Unbridled's Song), who is also responsible for her full-sister Vanishing Point, a $1.5-million purchase at the '19 Keeneland September Sale by Yuji Hasegawa. TJCIS PPS

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