Rebel Stakes | Horse Racing Free Tips

Baffert: Rebel Stakes Offers ‘Perfect Timing’ For Unbeaten Concert Tour

Perhaps no trainer in Oaklawn's 117-year history has had a tighter hold on a high-end race than Bob Baffert. That race, of course, is the Rebel Stakes (G2) for 3-year-olds at 1 1/16 miles.

The Southern California-based Baffert has been represented by 13 horses in the Rebel – at least one starter every year since his first in 2010 – and has won the race a record seven times, finished second three times and third once, bankrolling a whopping $3,171,000 in purses.

“The reason I've been so successful is I've brought some serious horses up there,” Baffert said Tuesday afternoon. “I usually try to bring my best horses there.”

The Hall of Fame trainer bids for an eighth Rebel victory when he sends out unbeaten Concert Tour (2 for 2) and recent maiden graduate Hozier in Saturday's $1 million race. Both horses arrived at Oaklawn at 11:30 am Wednesday after a Tex Sutton flight from California. The Rebel is Oaklawn's third of four Kentucky Derby points races.

Baffert has won the Rebel with Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old males Lookin At Lucky (2010) and American Pharoah (2015) and was runner-up, beaten a nose, in the second division in 2019 with another champion juvenile male, Game Winner. Baffert won the race in 2012 with future Breeders' Cup Sprint champion Secret Circle. A future Eclipse Award-winning older dirt male, Improbable, finished second in the first division in 2019. Baffert's other Rebel winners, The Factor (2011), Hoppertunity (2014), Cupid (2016) and Nadal (2020), all went on to capture Grade 1 events.

Lookin At Lucky used the Rebel as a springboard to a Preakness victory and another Eclipse Award (champion 3-year-old male) in 2010. American Pharoah raised the bar five years later, sweeping the Triple Crown and being named Horse of the Year.

Clearly, the Rebel has become a race Baffert circles each year in mapping out the best route to reach Churchill Downs, and beyond.

“It's an easy ship,” Baffert said. “It's a real easy ship. The flight's a couple of hours and it's a nice track. I like the surface there. I like Oaklawn. I wish I could go myself, but somebody's got to stay here all the time. I just think it's a good gauge because there's always nice horses up there.”

Baffert's most accomplished 2021 entrant is Concert Tour, who will be making his two-turn debut in the Rebel. Concert Tour's resume is virtually identical to Nadal (then 2 for 2) before the 2020 Rebel.

Concert Tour broke his maiden Jan. 15 at Santa Anita and won the $200,000 San Vicente Stakes (G2) Feb. 6 at Santa Anita. Nadal, in 2020, broke his maiden Jan. 19 at Santa Anita and won the San Vicente (G2) Feb. 9 before his successful two-turn debut in the Rebel (G2) March 14.

“The timing's right for this horse, Concert Tour,” Baffert said. “He's sort of on the same path as Nadal. It's all about timing. This race happened to come up perfect timing for him. So, we'll stretch him out. We're getting close now. I just want to see a good effort out of him, see how he's going to ship, how he's going to handle the ship, then shipping to run against some really nice horses. This is where they start to see if you're fit or not on the road to the Derby.”

A son of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, Concert Tour is a homebred for Gary and Mary West. The Wests have campaigned, among others, Rockamundo, who sprang a monumental upset in the 1993 Arkansas Derby, and Game Winner. They also have another leading Kentucky Derby candidate, unbeaten homebred Life Is Good, with Baffert.

Hozier is by Baffert's 2009 Kentucky Derby runner-up, Pioneerof the Nile, out of multiple graded stakes winner Merry Meadow. Purchased for $625,000 at the 2019 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale, Hozier finished fourth, beaten 14 lengths by Concert Tour, in his Jan. 15 career debut before breaking his maiden at 1 1/16 miles Feb. 15 at Santa Anita.

“I would have preferred an allowance race for him, but we just couldn't get them to fill out here,” Baffert said. “It's tough. So, I thought, 'Well, he's doing good and maybe like Spielberg he'll get a little piece of it or something.' If things go crazy on the front end, you never know.”

Spielberg, also trained by Baffert, finished second to champion Essential Quality in the $750,000 Southwest Stakes (G3) Feb. 27 at Oaklawn. The Southwest, originally scheduled to be run Feb. 15 before being postponed twice because of harsh winter weather, was Oaklawn's second Kentucky Derby points race.

The Rebel will offer 85 points (50-20-10-5, respectively) to the top four finishers toward starting eligibility for the Kentucky Derby, which is limited to 20 runners. Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby a record-tying six times, including last year's rescheduled version (COVID-19) with eventual Horse of the Year Authentic and in 2018 with Justify, who would also capture the Triple Crown.

“I'm really fortunate with the clientele I have,” Baffert said. “I think American Pharoah really opened the doors for me. I really started getting really nice horses. Before, I just had to go out and buy my own. Now, I'm getting good horses sent to me. My best horses are the homebreds, and they were bred by Gary and Mary West, Life Is Good and this horse.”

The projected eight-horse Rebel field from the rail out: Caddo River, Florent Geroux to ride, 122 pounds; Big Lake, Ricardo Santana Jr., 117; Hozier, Martin Garcia, 117; Get Her Number, Javier Castellano, 119; Twilight Blue, Brian Hernandez Jr., 119; Keepmeinmind, David Cohen, 119; Concert Tour, Joel Rosario, 117; and Super Stock, Joe Talamo, 117.

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Equibase Analysis: Concert Tour, Caddo River Stand Out In Rebel

The $1 million Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, the local prep at Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby, drew a field of eight 3-year-olds trying to earn the winner's share of 50 points on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points system, not to mention the minimum $600,000 which goes to the winning owner. Among the eight, seven have two-turn experience and six have won a two-turn race, with four of those stakes winners and another stakes placed.

On the flip side, three of those with positive stakes experience are returning from layoffs ranging from 100 to 165 days and it might be a tough question to ask even those talented colts to run a winning race off those long layoffs. Get Her Number is one of those, having captured the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes at the end of September. Another is Keepmeinmind, winner of the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at the end of November. Super Stock finished third and second in three graded stakes last year, the most recent when the runner-up in the Street Sense Stakes at the end of October.

Then we move to the horses with the most recent efforts, with all five entering the Rebel Stakes following wins. Among that group, Caddo River and Concert Tour were stakes winners. Caddo River returned from a little over two months off to win the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn on January 22, while Concert Tour won the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes at seven furlongs at Santa Anita on February 6. Hozier enters the race off a maiden win at Santa Anita and shares the barn of Bob Baffert with Concert Tour. Big Lake and Twilight Blue both won their most recent races in allowance company and are trying to step up to the stakes level with similar efforts.

Having discounted the chances of all three horses with stakes credentials who are trying to win off lengthy layoffs – Get Her Number, Keepmeinmind and Super Stock, and believing the horses coming out of maiden and allowance wins may need a bit of maturing and seasoning to win a race at this level, it appears Concert Tour and Caddo River are standouts in terms of probability to win.

Concert Tour has won both starts of his career, the first a six furlong race on Jan. 15 with a 100 Equibase Speed Figure and the second when winning the San Vicente Stakes on Feb. 6 with an even better 106 figure which is the best any horse in the Rebel field has earned. Showing a lot of maturity when racing in third in the early stages, Concert Tour moved professionally to the lead in the final sixteenth of a mile and won by a half-length. Jockey Joel Rosario was aboard for both wins and rides back in the Rebel and the colt put in a snazzy six furlong workout in 1:11.4 on March 6 to show he's in tip-top form. Concert Tour has a fantastic pedigree for going long as a son of Street Sense out of a Tapit mare. Sons of Street Sense such as Maxfield, McKinzie and Avery Island have had a big impact the past few seasons in 3-year-old races and of course there's the Baffert factor as well. A simple STATS Race Lens query exemplifies what racing fans know internally about Baffert's success in three year old races, showing over the last five years Baffert trainees have won 33 of 95 dirt route graded stakes for three year olds. Additionally, there's no concern about a Baffert charge stretching out to a route for the first time in a graded stakes, as he won the 2020 Rebel with Nadal off a sprint, as well as the 2021 Sham Stakes with current early Kentucky Derby favorite Life is Good.

Caddo River was very impressive winning the Smarty Jones Stakes on Jan. 22 at Oaklawn by 10 lengths. Cruising to the lead from the start, Caddo River kept a steady pace to draw away by three lengths with a quarter mile to go, by six lengths with an eighth of a mile to go before coasting home. Earning a 101 figure, the same earned when winning his previous start in November, Caddo River could easily take a huge step forward in his second start off the layoff and run well enough to win the Rebel Stakes, particularly if allowed to control the pace from a rail he draws. Jockey Florent Geroux has been aboard for the colt's last two wins and rides back and the fact that Caddo River won over the track could give him a familiarity edge over Concert Tour. Although he's been training for many years, trainer Brad Cox truly burst into the big leagues the past few years, and on fewer starters than Baffert in three year old dirt route races his numbers are quite similar in terms of percentage. Cox has a record of 10 for 28 in three year old dirt route graded stakes over the past five years including Essential Quality, winner of the Southwest Stakes at the end of February, and Mandaloun, recent winner of the Risen Star Stakes. If Caddo River wins or even finishes second, that would give Cox three major players as we head into the biggest races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Big Lake (95), Get Her Number (88), Hozier (89), Keepmeinmind (91), Super Stock (93) and Twilight Blue (100).

Win Contenders:
Concert Tour
Caddo River

Rebel Stakes – Grade 2
Race 11 at Oaklawn Park
Saturday, March 13 – Post Time 6:16 PM E.T.
One and One Sixteenth Miles
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1 Million

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Cohen: Keepmeinmind ‘One Of The Top Two I’ve Ever Sat On’

The only time David Cohen hasn't ridden Keepmeinmind was the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) Nov. 6 at Keeneland. Cohen was still in the race, though, choosing to ride another horse for his main client, 2019 Oaklawn training champion Robertino Diodoro.

Cohen was aboard Dreamer's Disease, who was part of a torrid early pace in the 1 1/16-mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile before tiring to finish sixth, 9 ¾ lengths behind powerful winner Essential Quality. Those same hot fractions helped Diodoro's other entrant, Keepmeinmind, finish third, beaten two lengths, after being last of 14 through a half-mile in a lively :45.31.

In retrospect, Cohen recalled several months later, it was a case of zigging when he should have zagged.

“I did have the choice,” Cohen said. “I have amnesia when it came to that, really. We worked them against each other a couple of times and this guy (Keepmeinmind) couldn't keep up with the other one. The other one was outworking him. Worked them both, rode them both.”

Cohen will be back aboard Keepmeinmind, when he makes his long-awaited 3-year-old debut in the $1 million Rebel Stakes (G2) Saturday at Oaklawn. Keepmeinmind, a late-running son of Laoban, was among eight horses entered Tuesday for the 1 1/16-mile Rebel, Oaklawn's third of four Kentucky Derby points races.

Cohen, Oaklawn's leading jockey in 2019, rode Keepmeinmind three times last year, including a last-to-first maiden-breaking victory in the $200,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) Nov. 28 at Churchill Downs in his last start. Prior to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Keepmeinmind finished second, beaten 3 ¼ lengths by Essential Quality, in the $400,000 Breeders' Futurity (G1) at 1 1/16 miles Oct. 3 at Keeneland. Dreamer's Disease, ridden by Cohen, punched his ticket to the Breeders' Cup with a front-running allowance victory going a mile on the Breeders' Futurity undercard.

“I've always loved Keepmeinmind, but he was never there mentally,” Cohen said. “In his races, he was sucking back and I knew there was more horse underneath me. And then in the morning, we worked these two against each other and the other one was outworking him. It was a tough decision. I had one speed horse, one coming from behind.”

Cohen said his Breeders' Cup choice was made easier because both horses raced for their breeder, Southern Equine Stable LLC, adding it indicated he would ride both back – even if Dreamer's Disease won.

“I think I told them that this horse is better today, but he won't be in a month from now,” Cohen said, referring to Dreamer's Disease. “He got burnt up on the front end. We had like four different waves of pressure. Once one stopped, another one came. Once he got tired, another one came. I was fine with my decision, but it had a lot to do with knowing that I wasn't giving up a mount for good.”

Reunited with Cohen for the 1 1/16-mile Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, Keepmeinmind was last of nine late on the second turn before passing two rivals on the inside turning for home and the remainder of the field on the outside in the stretch to win by three-quarters of a length. Keepmeinmind was the 2-1 favorite after going off 52-1 in the Breeders' Futurity and 30-1 in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

“On paper, there wasn't a lot of speed,” Cohen said. “I probably could have been a few lengths closer going into the (first) turn, but I just elected to get him to the back and let him relax and give us a few more options when it came to navigating where I wanted to go once I sat him down for his run. The issue that we were having with him in his first couple of starts was getting in tight and sucking out of there and then coming with a run. We threw blinkers on him and that seemed to really help that out. Before I sat him down for his run, I could have gone outside of some horses, but I still wanted to teach him something and let him do it the proper way. I probably had two, three extra gears there with him.”

Following the race, Keepmeinmind was sent to Kentucky's WinStar Farm and remained in light training there, Diodoro said, until shipping to Hot Springs in late December.

Cohen has regularly breezed Keepmeinmind in advance of his 2021 debut, which was originally scheduled to come in the $750,000 Southwest Stakes (G3) Feb. 15 at Oaklawn before the race was postponed twice because of severe winter weather. Diodoro opted to pass the delayed Southwest (won Feb. 27 by unbeaten champion Essential Quality) and point for the Rebel after Keepmeinmind's training schedule was interrupted by snow and brutal cold.

Cohen said Keepmeinmind has progressed mentally since the Kentucky Jockey Club and already ranks him with Grade 1-winning millionaire sprinter Proud Tower Too as the best horse he's ridden in his career. Cohen rode his first winner in 2004 and guided Golden Ticket to victory (dead-heat) in the $1 million Travers Stakes (G1) for 3-year-olds in 2012 at Saratoga.

“Seeing him develop and being part of his early career, before he's ever run, a lot of times you get on these horses when they're already good,” Cohen said. “But the way he's doing it, and does it so effortlessly, he's still not even at his full potential. I've got to think he's one of the top two I've ever sat on.”

The Rebel is one of five stakes races to be run Saturday at Oaklawn, the others being the $150,000 Temperence Hill for older horses at 1 ½ miles, $200,000 Hot Springs for older sprinters, $350,000 Azeri (G2) for older females at 1 1/16 miles and the $500,000 Essex Handicap for older horses at 1 1/16 miles.

Racing begins Saturday at noon (Central), with probable post time for the Rebel, the 11th of 12 races, 5:16 p.m. The infield will be open, weather permitting.

The projected Rebel field from the rail out: Caddo River, Florent Geroux to ride, 122 pounds; Big Lake, Ricardo Santana Jr., 117; Hozier, Martin Garcia, 117; Get Her Number, Javier Castellano, 119; Twilight Blue, Brian Hernandez Jr., 119; Keepmeinmind, David Cohen, 119; Concert Tour, Joel Rosario, 117; and Super Stock, Joe Talamo, 117.

The Rebel will offer 85 points (50-20-10-5, respectively) toward starting eligibility for the Kentucky Derby, which is limited to 20 starters. Keepmeinmind has 18 points to rank 12th on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, according to Churchill Downs.

The Rebel is the final major local prep for the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) April 10.

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Options Open for Get Her Number

Gary Barber's Get Her Number (Dialed In), off since winning the GI American Pharoah S. last September, continued to work towards his comeback with a four-furlong drill in :49.80 (1/1) at San Luis Rey Training Center Monday. While his next start has yet to be confirmed, it could come as soon as next Saturday's GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn Park.

“I'm happy with the work and he's doing very well,” trainer Peter Miller said Monday afternoon. “We are just deciding whether to put him on the plane Wednesday for the Rebel or there is a possibility of training up to the [Apr. 3 GI] Santa Anita Derby. We have a lot of options. We are just going to sleep on it tonight and then pow-wow tomorrow with the ownership group. Then make a decision and live with the consequences.”

Get Her Number, a $45,000 purchase at last year's OBS Spring Sale, opened his career with a win over five furlongs on the turf at Del Mar in August and he set the pace before settling for fourth in the Sept. 7 Del Mar Juvenile Turf. He was making his first start on dirt when he scored a 3/4-length victory in the 1 1/16-mile American Pharoah, but was sidelined after that effort.

“He's definitely more mature,” Miller said of the colt's progression from two to three. “He's a little bigger and stronger. He was a little bit nervous as a 2-year-old and he's settled down some. So we are pleased with the horse, we're just trying to figure out the best thing to do with him.”

While Miller agreed it can be frustrating to have a Grade I winning 2-year-old in the barn as the Derby trail heats up all around him, the trainer said he was content to keep his options open.

“The Derby has never been my primary goal with any horse,” Miller said. “It's just trying to do the right thing and if it falls in place, great, and if not, we can look at the [May 15 GI] Preakness S. or we can look elsewhere.”

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