TDN Derby Top 12 For Mar. 2: Will March Separate Lions From Lambs

The first Saturday in May is the ultimate goal on the GI Kentucky Derby trail. But the first Saturday in March is often a make-or-break day on the national calendar, with key stakes in Florida, California and New York providing an uptick in intensity.

1) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $544.275 Last start: 1st GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Park, Jan. 28. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight is the kingpin colt among the sophomores who switched out of trainer Bob Baffert's barn over the past week and into the care of Baffert's former assistant from two decades ago, Tim Yakteen. The transition was necessitated by a Churchill Downs ban on Baffert trainees that prohibits them from accruing qualifying points or racing in the Derby while under Baffert's control.

Top-ranked on this list since the outset of the season, this intimidatingly speedy, sales-topping son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 KEESEP, $2.3 million OBSAPR) is being aimed for either the GI Arkansas Derby Apr. 1 or the GI Santa Anita Derby one week later.

Staying home at Santa Anita means being able to race out of his own stall there. But shipping hasn't adversely affected either of his on-the-road wins, and Arabian Knight showed he can absolutely devour a wet Oaklawn racetrack if that condition arises again.

That last victory was a thorough shellacking of an overmatched field in the GIII Southwest S. in Hot Springs Jan. 28, in which Arabian Knight earned a 96 Beyer Speed Figure while dominating the tempo and not being throttled for maximum output.

Arabian Knight has only had one published workout since that win, a three-furlong move at Santa Anita back on Feb. 13, though there have been no recorded breezes of any variety since Feb. 23 owing to a rare winter storm.

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 5-4-0-0,  $1,595,150. Last start: 1st GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

Divisional champ Forte ($80,000 KEENOV; $110,000 KEESEP) will have a figurative target on his back in Saturday's GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream. It's his 2023 debut off a four-month layoff, and he drew post four as the 7-5 morning line favorite.

Somewhat surprisingly, this 'TDN Rising Star' by Violence didn't go off favored in any of the three Grade I victories that closed out his juvenile campaign, although he was the chalk in both his May 27 debut win at Belmont (7 3/4 lengths) and in start number two, a fourth-place try in the GII Sanford S. at Saratoga.

Yet this colt's trio of Grade I wins in the Hopeful S., Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S., and Breeders' Cup Juvenile each revealed new tactical dimensions, and Forte's knack of being able to essentially pick his own positioning before reliably firing a big shot off the far turn is a skill that a number of his competitors still haven't mastered. Watching the leggy, athletic Forte target and reel in horses without flinching from stretch fights whets the appetite for what he might be able to deliver on a two-prep path to Louisville.

But longer-term statistical trends could be stumbling blocks: as for this Saturday, be aware that favorites have lost 12 of the last 16 editions of the Fountain of Youth. Widening the lens to take in 38 years of Breeders' Cup history, only two colts (Nyquist and Street Sense) have parlayed wins in the Juvenile into a blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May.

3) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GP Allowance/Optional Claiming, Feb, 4. KY Derby Points: 0

'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice is headed for the Mar. 11 GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby for start number four.

His Nov. 6 debut at Aqueduct was a better-than-it-looks learning experience based on his fast-closing third. This colt's Dec. 17 MSW win, also at Aqueduct, rated as an eye-opener because of his unfazed attitude after brushing, bumping and running down a rival in a deep-stretch mud fight. But it was the over-the-top nature of Tapit Trice's gaudy, eight-length allowance pummeling at Gulfstream on Feb. 4 (92 Beyer) that stamped his Kentucky Derby aspirations as realistic and achievable.

This $1.3-million KEESEP son of Tapit still needs to hone his early-race skills by overcoming lackadaisical breaks from the gate. But as the distances increase and he gains experience against larger fields, those are the types of developmental concerns that seasoning can melt away like the spring thaw.

This year, the Tampa Bay Derby has been downgraded from Grade II to III. Part of that demotion had to do with the race's recent trend of well-meant favorites being no-shows while the long-shot winners went on to be low-impact factors in subsequent stakes.

Although the 4-5 choice Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway) won Tampa's big race last year, the previous four Tampa Derbies were won by harder-to-figure horses at odds of 15-1, 49-1, 8-1 and 19-1.

4) ROCKET CAN (c, Into Mischief–Tension, by Tapit) O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc.; B-Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales history: $245,000 RNA Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $249,738. Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S., Feb. 4. KY Derby Points: 20

As the co-fourth choice on the morning line for Saturday's Fountain of Youth S., Rocket Can isn't facing the same scrutiny or pressure as race favorite and divisional champ Forte. But this Into Mischief gray ($245,000 FTSAUG RNA) will still be under the gun to prove his GIII Holy Bull S. score was no fluke, and he needs to shrug off the stigma of having relatively low speed figures compared to other top Derby hopefuls.

Rocket Can has plateaued with 82 Beyers in his last two starts on Nov. 26 and Feb. 4. But as discussed in previous editions of this list, his efforts rate considerably higher from a “how he did it” visual perspective. He gave up ground on both turns of the Holy Bull while always within three lengths of the leaders, and when he commandeered the lead off the final turn of that short-stretch configuration, Rocket Can finished focused through the lane while chased home by a tenacious stablemate.

Over the same 1 1/16-mile setup that starts close to the first turn and ends at the sixteenth pole, look for jockey Junior Alvarado to try and execute a follow-the-favorite strategy on Saturday, a tactic that should be a smooth fit for this colt's capable stalking style.

5) CAVE ROCK (c, Arrogate–Georgie's Angel, by Bellamy Road) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman; B-Anne and Ronnie Sheffer Racing LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $210,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $550,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 4-3-1-0, $748,000. Last start: 2nd GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 0

'TDN Rising Star' Cave Rock, who races with his head slung low in a style that evokes his sire still merits a strong foothold within the Top 12 despite the certainty that he'll be the last colt on this list to make his first sophomore start.

Powerful and promising at age two, this physically imposing dual sales grad ($210,000 KEENOV; $550,000 KEESEP) detonated a 104 Beyer in his two-turn debut, the GI American Pharoah S., while never being fully extended.

But in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he got hot and bothered pre-race, then had trouble settling when trying to clear an irrationally exuberant 70-1 shot through a :22.90 opening quarter. Cave Rock seized the lead a half-mile from home, but Forte had far more in the tank while Cave Rock languished too long on his left lead in the stretch.

Still, the second-place effort was commendable given those less-than-optimal circumstances, and Cave Rock looms as a front-end force when he finally hits the entries.

6) FAUSTIN (c, Curlin–Hard Not to Like, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael L Petersen; B-DATTT Farm (Ky); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $285,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $800,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSP, 2-1-1-0, $80,200. Last start: 2nd GIII San Vicente S., Jan. 29. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Faustin ($285,000 RNA KEESEP; $800,000 OBSAPR) was christened a 'TDN Rising Star' upon debut back on opening day at Santa Anita, overcoming multiple examples of trip adversity (some of it self-inflicted) to win first time out.

In start number two, he ran a credible second despite being tactically disadvantaged behind a one-turn-specialist stablemate Havnameltdown (Uncaptured) in the GII San Vicente S. going seven furlongs. The latter returned to just miss in last weekend's G3 Saudi Derby Cup over a stamina-stretching mile.

Additional ground along the Derby trail (next start not yet disclosed) should aid Faustin's development arc, because 10 furlongs is well within the scope of his pedigree. His damsire and sire, Hard Spun and Curlin, finished second and third, respectively, in the 2007 Kentucky Derby. Half a year later, Curlin and Hard Spun ran one-two in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic.

7) HEJAZI (c, Bernardini–G Note, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc.; B-Mary & Chester Broman (Ky); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $3,550,000 2yo '22 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-1-2-1, $108,200. Last Start: 1st SA Maiden Special Weight, Jan. 15. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Hejazi, a New York-bred, $3.55-million EASMAY sale topper, is among the headliners in Saturday's 11-horse GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita. He has four races of experience, but only one try around two turns, which came last October while still a maiden and attempting winners (third in the GI American Pharoah S.).

He drew post seven for the San Felipe, and coming off a 6 1/2-furlong MSW score in which he led the field through early fractions of :21.97 and :44.28, Hejazi projects to be a forward factor on the stretch-out.

This will be his second start off a freshening (and his first for trainer Tim Yakteen on a transfer from Bob Baffert), and Hejazi merits respect based on the 97 Beyer he earned and the authoritative way he swatted back two deep-stretch challengers inside the final 100 yards.

A concern, though, is that four of the horses he beat on Jan. 15 have already raced again, and the best finish among them was a third-place try.

8) INSTANT COFFEE (c, Bolt d'Oro–Follow No One, by Uncle Mo) O-Gold Square LLC; B-Sagamore Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $200,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-3-0-0, $442,815. Last Start: Won Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds. Kentucky Derby Points: 32.

Instant Coffee's company lines got a boost when the third- and fourth-place finishers out of his Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. tally came back to win their next starts. Confidence Game (Candy Ride {Arg}) scored in last Saturday's GII Rebel S. at 18-1 odds and Denington (Gun Runner) popped at 8-1 in a Feb. 18 first-level allowance route at Fair Grounds.

This son of Bolt d'Oro ($200,000 KEESEP) is three-for-four lifetime, with his only loss coming when fourth in a key renewal of the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland last October.

He is, however, the type of colt you'd like to see more of before deciding if he's a true 10-furlong horse.

That's not going to happen under trainer Brad Cox's current two-prep sophomore plan. With the Mar. 25 GII Louisiana Derby projected as his next race, Instant Coffee is going to have nine weeks between starts trying to make the jump from 1 1/16 miles to 1 3/16 miles, then another six weeks until the 10-furlong Kentucky Derby.

He's currently two breezes into training since his last race.

9) RED ROUTE ONE (c, Gun Runner–Red House, by Tapit) O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GISP, 7-1-2-1, $492,575. Last Start: 2nd in Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. Kentucky Derby Points: 33.

Red Route One is a longer-the-better type who isn't going to head to Louisville as a Derby standout. Yet he has the staying power and pedigree to be a dangerous threat; the type of double-digit longshot who will sit far back, make one sustained run, and if the trip and pace scenarios shake out in his favor–look out.

This son of Gun Runner out of a full-sister to Eclipse Award and GI Longines Kentucky Oaks winner Untapable (Tapit) is a Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred who rallied from far off the tailgate and splashed into the homestretch of the GII Rebel S. with abandon, avoiding the crowding that was going on closer to the rail but not still shying from outer-path roughhousing in upper stretch before accelerating with a separate, deep-race burst in the run to the wire (92 Beyer for second).

True, he's never won on dirt. But Red Route One's past-performance block consists of seven route races on turf and dirt, and a wet racetrack hasn't been a problem on the three occasions he's encountered slop (twice second, once fifth).

“Obviously, we're anxious for the races to go farther,” said trainer Steve Asmussen. “Not positive we won't wheel him back in the Louisiana Derby, a mile and three-sixteenths. Quit messing around and get him on out there.”

10) GEAUX ROCKET RIDE (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Beyond Grace, by Uncle Mo) O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-OXO Equine LLC (Ky); T-Richard Mandella. Sales history: $350,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $40,200. Last Start: Won Maiden Special Weight at Santa Anita Jan. 29. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

This colt's 92-Beyer, 5 3/4-length, smash-and-grab score in a six-furlong Santa Anita MSW sprint was encouraging enough for the generally conservative trainer Richard Mandella to declare him a “geaux” for two-turn stakes company, and he'll start from post eight in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe S. on Saturday.

Geaux Rocket Ride's form was flattered when the runner-up from that Jan. 29 win, Sonoran (Ride on Curlin), returned Feb. 20 to break his maiden by 7 1/4 lengths as a 3-5 favorite.

This $350,000 FTKJUL son of Candy Ride (Arg) retains the services of jockey Flavien Prat for this weekend's engagement.

But, like six other entrants in the San Felipe, he'll have to come off the medication Lasix as he advances into stakes territory. That many horses making the off-Lasix switch lends an accentuated a wild-card flavor to what already looms as a tough 11-horse race to handicap.

11) CONFIDENCE GAME (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Eblouissante, by Bernardini) O-Don't Tell My Wife Stables; B-Summer Wind Equine, LLC (Ky); T-J K Desormeaux. Sales history: $25,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-1-2, $785,525. Last Start:  Won Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 57.

Confidence Game is a plucky, adaptable overachiever ($25,000 KEESEP) with some racing royalty in his bloodlines: his dam, former 'TDN Rising Star' Eblouissante, is a Bernardini half-sister to the mighty Zenyatta.

Trainer Keith Desormeaux said this son of Candy Ride (Arg) “sort of lost his mind in the paddock” prior to his 94-Beyer winning effort in the sloppy Rebel S. last Saturday. But jockey James Graham was able to settle down Confidence Game during his warm-up, and the colt got a sweet mid-pack trip while fifth behind two longshot speedsters and two stalking favorites who never truly fired despite no-excuse trips.

Responding to far-turn rousing, Confidence Game got third run at the wilting leaders while widest off the turn, then largely avoided inside traffic with a work-in-progress kind of stretch run that included some outward wandering late (94 Beyer).

“He's really come into his own,” Desormeaux said. “He started off pretty immature. But as the races went on [seven total, five of them routes], he has improved things mentally and physically.”

12) LITIGATE (c, Blame–Salsa Diavola, by Mineshaft) O-Centennial Farms; B-Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent (Ky); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $370,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $182,590. Last Start: Won Feb. 11 GIII Sam F. Davis S. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

Litigate, a $370,000 KEESEP colt by Blame, will be on trainer Todd Pletcher's traveling team with an expected next start in the Louisiana Derby. He most recently scored a 1 1/4-length win in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa.

Note that even though the track is listed as 'fast' on the Equibase chart, that Feb. 11 race was run in a downpour, which might be a contributing factor to Litigate's tepid 77 Beyer and the race's lethargic closing fractions.

Sent to clear the field from post 10 by Luis Saez, Litigate ably rated back to fifth on the backstretch. He uncorked a decent move between the five-sixteenths pole and the quarter pole, then had to be ridden hard through the lane to put away a 21-1 shot and a 12-1 shot, finishing through driving rain in a sluggish final sixteenth clocked in :7.05.

His two previous tries showed promise, and they could prove to be useful building blocks as this colt attempts longer races more suited to his distance-centric pedigree: sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Aqueduct Nov. 19, Litigate stalked with purpose behind a three-way battle for the lead, patiently took the overland route through the turn, then drew away respectably. Tasked with a one-turn mile allowance at Gulfstream Jan. 8, he nailed second by a nose behind a daylight winner.

He's worth consideration in New Orleans if you think the long Fair Grounds stretch will be his friend.

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Candy Ride’s Confidence Game Splashes Home In Rebel

Confidence Game (Candy Ride {Arg}), despite being, as his trainer Keith Desormeaux said, “the complete opposite of his name” in the paddock, rewarded his backers Saturday at 18-1 with a win in the GII Rebel S. and 50 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Breaking from the same gate as Wet Paint (Blame) won from one race prior in the GIII Honeybee S., Confidence Game raced two-wide past the stands and settled a path off the rail as the field sorted themselves out into the first turn. Powerful (Nyquist) and Frosted Departure (Frosted) did their best to separate themselves from the group, duking it out on the front end just ahead of stablemates Verifying (Justify) and Giant Mischief (Into Mischief). The first quarter, up in :22.75, had the field strung out up the backstretch with Red Route One (Gun Runner) looking hopelessly beaten in the back. Confidence Game hung back just off those top four, shifting out a path as a rival came along inside for an outside move past the group of leg-weary leaders. Widest of the field past the quarter pole, he rallied with momentum down the lane despite hanging on his left lead. Red Route One came roaring up from the back of the pack inside the final sixteenth but ran out of time as Confidence Game hit the wire in front.

“He sort of lost his mind in the paddock, so I was worried until he got on the track,” said Desormeaux. “James [Graham] got him to settle down out there. He's really come into his own. He started off pretty immature, but as the races went on, he has improved things mentally, and physically.”

Winning rider Graham added: “I was able to settle him down when we were warming up so he got back in the things mentally. I was really happy with where I was early in the race. He wasn't doing too much too soon. He had a ton left down the lane. I'm just so happy for everyone involved and especially this horse. He keeps maturing and doing things the right way. I think the sky is the limit for him.”

Pedigree Notes:

A bargain buy at just $25,000 as a yearling at Keeneland September, Confidence Game is out of a half-sister to Horse of the Year Zenyatta (Street Cry {Ire}) and MGISW Balance (Thunder Gulch). Second dam Vertigineux was named 2008's Broodmare of the Year, while Eblouissante has twice brought big dollars at sales, first from St. George Farm at the 2013 KEENOV sale for $2.1 million and finally from Summer Wind Farm at Tattersalls in 2016 for 1,100,000gns.

Confidence Game is followed by juvenile and yearling half-brothers by More Than Ready and Speightstown, respectively, while Eblouissante was bred to Maclean's Music for this spring. Confidence Game is the 52nd graded-stakes winner for Candy Ride (Arg).

Saturday, Oaklawn Park
REBEL S.-GII, $1,000,000, Oaklawn, 2-25, 3yo, 1 1/16m, 1:44.21, sy.
1–CONFIDENCE GAME, 119, c, 3, by Candy Ride (Arg)
               1st Dam: Eblouissante, by Bernardini
               2nd Dam: Vertigineux, by Kris S.
               3rd Dam: For the Flag, by Forli
1ST BLACK TYPE WIN, 1ST GRADED STAKES WIN. ($25,000 Ylg
'21 KEESEP). O-Don't Tell My Wife Stables; B-Summer Wind
Equine LLC (KY); T-J. Keith Desormeaux; J-James Graham.
$581,750. Lifetime Record: 7-3-1-2, $785,525. Werk Nick Rating: A+++. *Triple Plus*. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree or free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Red Route One, 117, c, 3, Gun Runner–Red House, by Tapit.
O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Steven M. Asmussen.
$179,000.
3–Reincarnate, 122, c, 3, Good Magic–Allanah, by Scat Daddy.
($775,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP). O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing,
Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Stonestreet Stables
LLC, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC and
Catherine Donovan; B-Woods Edge Farm, LLC (KY); T-Tim
Yakteen. $89,500.
Margins: 1, 1HF, 2 3/4. Odds: 18.50, 9.90, 4.80.
Also Ran: Verifying, Bourbon Bash, Giant Mischief, Gun Pilot, Frosted Departure, Powerful, Event Detail, Talladega.
Click for the Equibase.com chart or the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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Verifying ‘Checks’ All Boxes In Hot Renewal of Rebel

For all he's accomplished in a relatively short period of time, trainer Brad Cox yet to unsaddle a winner of the third leg of Oaklawn's 3-year-old series, the $1-million GII Rebel S. But he'll have two strong chances to right that wrong in an extremely contentious renewal Saturday afternoon.

Verifying (Justify), a half-brother to champion Midnight Bisou (Midnight Lute), rounded out the exacta behind Blazing Sevens (Good Magic) in a sloppy-track running of the GI Champagne S. at Aqueduct Oct. 1 and never truly threatened in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile after getting pinched back at the break. The $775,000 Keeneland September purchase could not have been more impressive in a first-level allowance going a mile on sophomore debut here Jan. 14, as he widened through the short stretch to treat Gun Pilot (Gun Runner) to a 5 1/4-length beating.

The 2-1 morning-line favorite figures to be tested by stablemate Giant Mischief (Into Mischief), who makes his seasonal debut off a remarkable runner-up effort in the Springboard Mile in December. A Keeneland allowance winner sprinting in his prior appearance, the bay made a mess of the break and trailed, then made a quick, wide move on the turn before falling just short as the odds-on favorite.

“I expected him to run big that night and he did,” Cox said. “I never expected him to break like that. Just rocked back a step right before they popped him. He's a good horse as well. We're looking forward to giving him another run around two turns.”

A Rebel 'yell' for several of the remaining nine entrants would not come as a surprise. Red Route One (Gun Runner) raced detached from the rest of the field in the GIII Southwest S., but rallied strongly over a rain-affected strip he may not have loved to be second to tearaway winner 'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight (Uncle Mo).

Reincarnate (Good Magic) ships in from California and is to be saddled for the first time by Tim Yakteen. A maiden winner at fourth asking at Del Mar in November, he more or less made all the running in the GIII Sham S. Jan. 8, holding off next-out GIII Robert B. Lewis S. hero Newgate (Into Mischief) by a neck.

And a case can even be made for Gun Pilot, who franked the form of the Verfying allowance with a two-length success Feb. 4 in which he overcame some trouble on the turn to best Bourbon Bash (City of Light). Trainer Steve Asmussen is a four-time winner of the Rebel.

A total of 100 points (50-20-15-10-5) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby are up for grabs Saturday.

Wet Paint Can Keep Ball Rolling in Honeybee

Godolphin's Wet Paint (Blame), undefeated in a pair of starts going two turns on dirt, looks to negotiate the hike into graded stakes company as the one to beat in the GIII Honeybee S.

Like her stable companion Giant Mischief, Wet Paint broke her maiden at Indiana Grand last fall and, following an allowance second going a mile on the Turfway all-weather in December, finished with good energy to defeat the re-opposing Taxed (Collected) and Defining Purpose (Cross Traffic) in the Jan. 28 Martha Washington S.

Olivia Twist (Mshawish) is a fair bet to take tons of action off what feels a very overlaid morning line of 15-1. A $230,000 OBS June acquistion, the bay took her two-turn bow by 15 lengths at Remington Nov. 21 and was the two-length winner of the Dec. 17 Trapeze S. in Oklahoma City. The 21-10 second pick in the Martha Washington, she gave way readily after six furlongs over a wet-fast track and deserves the benefit of the doubt, particularly if underbet.

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Brad Cox Joins TDN Writers’ Room Podcast

He just won the GII Risen Star S., has a strong pair entered in Saturday's GII Rebel S. and accounts for 10 horses being offered in the latest round of the Derby Future Wager. When it comes to 3-year-old talent, Brad Cox's lineup has tremendous quality and tremendous quantity. In the spotlight virtually every Saturday that includes a prep race for the GI Kentucky Derby, Cox found the time to join the team for this week's Thoroughbred Daily News Writers' Room podcast presented by Keeneland to discuss his Derby prospects. Cox was this week's Green Group Guest of the Week.

So far as the Rebel, in which he will start Verifying (Justify) and Giant Mischief (Into Mischief), Cox is optimistic he can pick up another major win on the road to the Derby.

“I think that Verifying is a very good horse,” he said. “The last time out at Oaklawn, he showed the ability to set close to the pace. I think the fractions [in the Rebel] will be similar, maybe even quicker. I don't expect to necessarily be on the lead but somewhat forwardly placed in a good stalking position. If he runs as well as he's training, I think he's going to be right there. He's a good colt. Giant Mischief is also a very good colt. I thought he ran a winning race at Remington [in the Springboard Mile], but, obviously, just didn't get away well. He made a big middle move and then kind of flattened out. This was by design to give him a little time after that race. He had three good runs at two, three positive races. And I thought he showed in his Remington race that he could stretch out. We're looking forward to getting him started at three.”

Like most trainers with top horses and clients, winning the Derby has become a focal point for Cox, who said he's living a dream with this many good horses.

“This has been my dream for a long, long time, to get into this position, acquire good colts from top outfits, top breeders, top owners throughout the country,” he said. “These horses, you need to have a lot of them to be on this stage. That we have so many at this point just proves that we've got a really, really good program. It's a team effort and it's years and years of training young horses and being able to stop on them when they need to be stopped on and then having them ready to go in the fall of their two-year-old year or to begin their three-year-old season to try to make that push for the Kentucky Derby because it is very, very demanding.”

Officially, Cox has won the Kentucky Derby. The Cox-trained Mandaloun (Into Mischief) was awarded the win in 2021 after Medina Spirit (Protonico) was disqualified due to a medication overage. But Cox said he doesn't really feel like he's won the race and wants to win it by sending out the best horse.

“It hasn't felt like winning the Kentucky Derby,” he said. “If you're awarded the race how do you explain that to people? I have to say, 'Oh, yeah, I've won it, but my horse didn't cross the wire first.' If I met a stranger and they didn't know much about horse racing, I'd have to explain how I won the Derby. I definitely don't feel that we've won the Kentucky Derby. We know the Kentucky Derby is not the richest race run in America, but I think it is without a doubt the most prestigious. All the eyes are on racing that day with the telecast, the crowd and everything. And it's the thrill of victory, bottom line. I haven't experienced that thrill and I look forward to it someday.”

Elsewhere on the podcast, which is also sponsored by Coolmore, the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association, XBTV, Kentucky Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders and West Point Thoroughbreds, Randy Moss, Zoe Cadman and Bill Finley reviewed last week's races at the Fair Grounds, including the Risen Star and the disappointing effort by Hoosier Philly (Into Mischief) in the GII Rachel Alexandra S. Steve Asmussen's 10,000th win was also discussed with Finley predicting that Asmussen is setting records that will never be broken. To preview the G1 Saudi Cup, Cadman caught up with jockeys Mike Smith and Frankie Dettori in a new segment on the podcast, 1/ST things 1/ST at Santa Anita.

The post Brad Cox Joins TDN Writers’ Room Podcast appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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