randy moss | Horse Racing Free Tips

Florida Derby Time Adjusted

After reviewing the race, Equibase has adjusted the final time for Saturday's GI Florida Derby, won by Forte (Violence). The original time of 1:48.51 has been changed to 1:49.37.

In a statement released Sunday by Equibase, the company said that the finish line beam may have been tripped before the horses reached the finish line.

Prior to Equibase recognizing the mistake, the error was caught by the Beyer speed figure team. Initially, Forte was credited with a 98 Beyer figure. That number was lowered to a 95.

“The time is almost a full second wrong and I have no idea why,” said Beyer associate Randy Moss.

After doing their own review of the race, the Beyer team came up with a final time of 1:49.39. Moss said questions were raised about the Equibase time because it had the field covering the final eighth of a mile in 12:16 seconds, which seemed unrealistically fast. That, Moss said, drew the attention of Craig Milkowski from TimeformUS. He reached out to Moss and both went over the race. With the recalculated final time, Forte's last furlong went in 13.02. Equibase has also adjusted the time for the final furlong to 13:02.

“We timed it four different times, four different ways and got within three-one hundredths of a second every time,” Moss said.

Moss added that on first inspection it appeared that Forte's figure was significantly higher.

“Initially, we looked at the track variant and had the figure coming up as 104,” Moss said. “Andy (Beyer) and Mark (Hopkins) asked me what did I think. I said that the fig is the fig. They said there was no way those horse who finished behind Forte could have all run that fast. So they decided to make it a 98. As it turns out, they were right because the time was wrong.”

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Todd Pletcher Joins TDN Writers’ Room Podcast

It's that time of the year, when Todd Pletcher is in the headlines virtually every weekend. He won last Saturday's GII Louisiana Derby with Kingsbarns (Uncle Mo), has the favorite in Saturday's GI Curlin Florida Derby in Forte (Violence) and the following week will head to Keeneland for the GI Toyota Blue Grass, where Tapit Trice (Tapit) could be the horse to beat. To get Pletcher's latest thoughts on his wealth of 3-year-old talent we had him join us on this week's TDN Writers' Room podcast presented by Keeneland. Pletcher was this week's Green Group Guest of the Week.

A key topic was the draw for the Florida Derby. A small field was expected, but when the entries came out, the Florida Derby had a field of 12 and Forte drew the 11 post. That's a big disadvantage, which Pletcher was quick to acknowledge. The 11 post is just 2-for-49 at a mile-and-an-eighth on the dirt at Gulfstream.

“There's no bones about it. I don't like it,” he said. “It wouldn't have been one of my first five choices. I read the other day that since 2006, post 11 is 2-for-49 at Gulfstream going a mile-and-an-eighth. The one thing I will say, you'd have to go back and look at all 49 horses who broke from that post. But I would doubt that too many of them have the credentials that Forte does.”

He said that when the new Gulfstream was being built the Stronach team asked him his opinion as to whether or not they should build a mile-and-an-eighth main track. He told them he was against it.

“If you could go back 20 years, they actually did ask me when they were looking at the blueprints,” he said. “They asked me 'What do you think of a mile-and-an-eighth track?' I told them that I didn't care for it at all. It compromises your race and potentially could compromise anyone who draws an outside post. I've always felt it's not really a fair race for everyone. Between the Florida Derby and the Pegasus, you just hate to see the two most significant races of the meet potentially affected by post position.”

In the Louisiana Derby, Kingsbarns benefitted from a heady ride by Flavien Prat, who got his mount to the lead and slowed the pace down to a crawl. Pletcher said the plan was to be aggressive from the gate.

“Flavien and I spoke about the race,” he said. “We wanted to make sure we were kind of seeing the pace scenario the same way and that we both agreed. There didn't appear to be a lot of pace on paper. We felt like we would come out running, try to establish some position. We felt like the horse was versatile enough that if he made the lead the right way we'd be fine with that. And if someone else was ambitious and wanted to take it, then we could put ourselves in a good stalking position. At the elbow of the first turn, we were a length in front and it was pretty much all good from there.”

Scouting the competition, Pletcher admitted he was impressed with Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits), the winner of the G2 UAE Derby, who will now be headed to the GI Kentucky Derby.

“I thought it was a very impressive performance,” he said. “I think the track might have been a little bit speed favoring, but I didn't get to watch the whole card. The Japanese horses have just been performing phenomenally everywhere that their horses run. So, yes, I'm concerned. They're certainly improving by leaps and bounds in the way that their horses are performing globally.”

Elsewhere on the podcast, which is also sponsored by Coolmore,https://lanesend.com/ the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association, Woodford Thoroughbreds, Lane's End, XBTV, 1/st Racing, WinStar Farm and West Point Thoroughbreds, the team of Bill Finley, Randy Moss and Zoe Cadman dissected last week's Louisiana Derby and the impressive win by Two Phil's (Hard Spun) in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks. Did he move up on the synthetic surface or is he a horse that has improved quickly? The trio also gave their handicapping thoughts for this week's Florida Derby and the GI Arkansas Derby.

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HISA’s Lisa Lazarus Joins TDN Writers’ Room Podcast

On Monday, there will be a seismic shift in horse racing. That's when the Horse Racing Integrity and Safety Authority will launch its Anti-Doping and Medication Control program and, in most states, will take over the responsibilities of drug testing and drug adjudications. With that date right around the corner, the TDN Writers' Room podcast presented by Keeneland brought in HISA's CEO Lisa Lazarus to give an update on what to expect once HISA takes over. Lazarus was this week's Green Group Guest of the Week.

Lazarus made it clear that one of HISA's major goals is to do everything in its power to stop anyone who tries to use performance-enhancing drugs to get an edge. To do so, they will go beyond drug testing and will rely on investigations and intelligence.

“Our test distribution plan is going to be investigations and intelligence led,” she said. “We are not going to be relying primarily on post-race testing in order to discern who actually is breaking the rules. We've got a very robust investigative team headed by Shaun Richards, who is a former FBI agent. He is actually the one who worked up all the evidence in the prosecutions in the Southern District involving Navarro and Servis, et cetera. We really are focusing on the intelligence.”

Lazarus said she knows there are still those in the industry who are anti-HISA and have a lot of trepidation about it taking over when it comes to drug testing. She said one of her main goals for HISA is to change that narrative.

“I would like to have gained the trust of the majority of horsemen and players in the industry,” she said when asked about her goals for the coming year. “You may agree or disagree about a rule here or there, and that's all good. That's all part of the dialogue. But I really hope that and believe that we'll have the majority saying that this is actually needed. That we needed a uniform system. We needed uniform rules. This is good. And this is this actually professionalizes our sport to a different level. I hope that horsemen will feel like there is a level playing field. I hope the public sees racing horse racing in a different way, that it is safer and with more integrity.”

Another change that HISA will usher in is that it will differentiate between drugs that are true performance-enhancers and therapeutic medications that were still in a horse's system when they were tested. They will also have a separate category for positives that appear to be the result of environmental contamination.

“We completely separated the rule book into two categories, the banned substances, which are the doping substances; versus the controlled medications, which are the therapeutics,” she said. “And we take a very different philosophical approach to those two categories. If you have a banned substance in a horse, which is a performance enhancement that should never be in a horse, the penalties are severe. They're severe, they're swift, and they will be game-changing. If you make a mistake or if you have a therapeutic overage, there will be consequences, but they'll be proportionate to the to the violation. We also have a policy called the Atypical Findings Policy, which basically has 27 different substances that, if detected in a horse's system, we know it's almost certain to be result of contamination. Those will go through a different process. If we are satisfied after looking at those a little bit more deeply that it really is contamination, there's no loss of purse, there's no sanction. It's like it never happened.”

Elsewhere on the podcast, which is also sponsored by Coolmore, the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association, Woodford Thoroughbreds, The Kentucky Thoroughbred Association, XBTV, 1/st Racing, WinStar Farm and West Point Thoroughbreds, Randy Moss and Bill Finley took a look at the remarkable year 87-year-old trainer Wayne Lukas is having. Lukas won last weekend's biggest race, the GIII Essex H. at Oaklawn Park with Last Samurai (Malibu Moon). There was also a discussion of the promising numbers that came out of the Equine Injury Database for 2022. The 2022 figure of 1.25 fatalities per 1,000 starters was the lowest since The Jockey Club began compiling fatality numbers in 2009. Looking ahead to this weekend's racing, the team gave their thoughts on the major races at the Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, which include key GI Kentucky Derby preps in the GII Louisiana Derby and the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks S.

Click for the Writers' Room Podcast's Audio or Video.

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Mike Repole Joins The TDN Writers’ Room Podcast

Four days after his Forte (Violence) won the GII Fountain of Youth S. in his 3-year-old debut, co-owner Mike Repole was still beaming. At this point, Forte's lead-up to the GI Kentucky Derby has been perfect. There have been no hiccups and his race in the Fountain of Youth checked every conceivable box. So what did Repole, who owns the horse in partnership with Vinnie Viola, think? We had Repole join us on the TDN Writers' Room podcast presented by Keeneland to find out. Repole was this week's Green Group Guest of the Week.

“The script you write never works out,” Repole said. “But the way things have turned out with Forte, I couldn't have written that script any better. We just got his Ragozin number, which was a 7 3/4, which was the lowest number of his career off a four-month layoff. So it's always a promising sign. You don't really know who the competition was in the race. But he hadn't raced in four months and all those horses had starts either four weeks ago or eight weeks ago. So everything really worked out.”

That Repole and Viola have a horse like Forte is no accident. They have spent millions at the sales acquiring dozens of horses. Forte, who cost $110,000, was one of 43 yearlings they bought at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Over the last two years at Keeneland, they have spent $30 million on 75 horses. Repole acknowledged that their way of attacking the sales only works if you can come up with a couple of stars.

“When you buy 100 horses, if you can get 2% of them to be Grade I winners, you're going to pay for the whole crop,” Repole said. “Now, it sounds easy, but you need to find a Nest and you need a Forte. It is very difficult. But I think I play at all different levels. And listen, I don't want to give away a secret here, but. I'm aggressive.”

Repole made some news during the interview, revealing that his preference is that Forte run as a 4-year-old. He said he would not enter into an agreement for Forte with a stud farm unless they agreed to give him an option to run the horse next year.

“I have to have an option to run him at four, whether we do or not,” he said. “It has to be that I get to choose, and everybody knows that's the plan. Let's be honest, we don't know if he's going to or not. In this sport, we don't even know that he's going to have a next start. But I have to have that option.”

As for Nest (Curlin), the 3-year-old filly champion of 2022 that Repole owns along with Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Repole said she will make her 4-year-old debut in the GI La Troienne S. on April 5 at Churchill Downs.

“We gave her time off and she's grown up and she's developed,” Repole said. “We all know what happens with Curlin's between three and four. It's hard to think this way, but she might even be better this year.”

Elsewhere on the podcast, which is also sponsored by Coolmore,https://lanesend.com/ the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association, Woodford Thoroughbreds, The Kentucky Thoroughbred Association, XBTV, 1/st Racing, WinStar Farm and https://www.threechimneys.com/ West Point Thoroughbreds, Randy Moss, Zoe Cadman and Bill Finley took a look back at a big weekend of racing that included the Fountain of Youth S., the GII San Felipe S. and the GI Santa Anita H. and a look ahead to the GII Tampa Bay Derby. The subject of Alex Canchari's suicide brought about an important discussion of how jockeys best deal with mental health issues. Canchari's death came six week after jockey Avery Whisman also took his own life. Cadman, a former rider, pointed out that both jockeys were not actively riding at the time of their deaths and said that down time can be difficult for any rider. Finley raised the issue of whether or not it's time to allow jockeys to ride at slightly heavier weights, but Cadman and Moss both maintained that would not solve any problems.

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