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Andy Serling Joins The TDN Writers’ Room

With Saratoga opening, NYRA TV Analyst and Handicapper Andy Serling will be ultra busy over the next seven plus weeks, spending countless hours on every card as he tries to pick winners and give his viewers valuable betting advice. But he's not complaining. It's hard to imagine anyone who loves Saratoga more. To talk about the meet, Serling joined the team on this week's TDN Writers' Room podcast presented by Keeneland. Serling, who has been attending the meet on a regular basis since 1975, was the Green Group Guest of the Week.

When asked if Saratoga will surpass last year's record when $878 million was bet on the meet, Serling said it all depends on the weather. Only 17 races were taken off the turf last year.

“You don't want to sit around and say we're going to do as well or better than we did last year because weather is going to play a major role in that,” Serling said. “But I don't see anything happening that's going to severely negatively affect us. There are weather situations where it rains a decent amount and it's especially a problem if it happens on Saturdays. But other than that, there's a great interest in Saratoga. It remains a place that people just love to go to. So there's no reason not to be optimistic or hopeful that things will go well. But you don't want to get caught up in that because we're geniuses when the weather's good and we're idiots when the weather's bad. Saratoga is a magical place and it seems to continue to do well regardless of what the environment is.”

One race he will be keeping his eye on is the one for the riding title. Irad Ortiz, Jr. was an easy winner last year, but it was his brother, Jose, who won the title at the Belmont spring meet.

“I think it's a very friendly rivalry between Jose and Irad,” he said. “Irad has won four of the last eight and Jose has won three of them. To suggest it's not likely to come down to these two guys is unlikely. Now, this is the first full summer that Jose has been with agent Steve Rushing. He was with Jimmy Riccio before. I wouldn't count Luis Saez out because he's been riding at Churchill and if some of these Churchill trainers do well that he's riding for I think he will have a chance to win it for the second time. Flavien Prat, Joel Rosario are guys who have a chance. I just don't know that they'll get the same kind of mounts to be able to win a jockey title. They might win a lot of stakes. They might win bigger races, but it's tough to go past the two Ortiz brothers.”

As for the trainers, it appears this will be another year where the race comes down to Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher.

“It's going to probably come down to those two guys, Todd and Chad, and it'll probably hinge really on how many good two year olds they have, how many maiden races they win,” Serling said. “Pletcher is capable and we've seen in the past his winning a boatload of maiden races. If he doesn't, he's not going to compete for the title. But the other thing is that one thing that Todd is exceptionally good at is being prepared for off the turf. Todd is usually in there with somebody and it's something that he usually has an advantage on. Chad's strength is often turf racing. So if we get a lot of rain, they come off the turf, it's going to cost Chad.”

Elsewhere on the podcast, which is also sponsored by the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association, Kentucky Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders, NYRABets.com, WinStar Farm, XBTV.com and West Point Thoroughbreds, the team of Bill Finley, Randy Moss and Zoe Cadman talked about what was a rocky week for the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority (HISA) and whether or not the way it and the Horseracing Integrity and Welfare Unit (HIWU) has been dealing with those who had positive tests for banned substances is a case of “guilty until proven innocent.” There was a review of last week's big races, including the win by Reincarnate (Good Magic) in the Los Alamitos Derby. The team also focused on the story of jockey 61-year-old Cindy Murphy. Murphy won the July 8 GIII Iowa Oaks aboard Crypto Mo (Mohaymen), which was both her 2,000th career victory and her first-ever win in a graded stakes race.

Click here for the audio-only version.

The post Andy Serling Joins The TDN Writers’ Room appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Pat Cummings Joins The TDN Writers’ Room Podcast

Computer Assisted Wagering (CAW) has been a hot topic of late. What we know is that there are a handful gamblers that use computer algorithms to formulate their wagers, are allowed to make their bets at the very last second and receive substantial rebates. But there's a lot we don't know, like how much are they betting, what pools they most prefer and what affect has that had on the “regular” player? In his latest report for the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation (TIF), entitled Sharks & Minnows, TIF Executive Director Pat Cummings dug into the issue. To find out more about his findings, the TDN Writers' Room podcast presented by Keeneland was joined this week by Cummings. He was the Green Group Guest of the Week.

Using data from Del Mar, Cummings concluded that CAW players are betting more each year and that the amount of betting from “everyone else” is declining.

“Not only are the sharks growing, but the minnows are declining,” he said. “For the first time in this paper, were able to really separate how the CAW play has grown and how all other customers have in almost every pool shrunk. Total handle figures are often marketed in the industry press releases, they're touted. It looks like on an annual basis that not a whole lot has changed. That's not telling us the accurate picture. For years now, the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation has wanted to really dive into who's betting, how are they betting, how are they participating and how is the market changing? What we're seeing now more clearly than ever before is what's happening with all other customers. We're talking about people that may bet $10 a year or maybe even $2 million a year. They are a smaller percentage of the pools and declining.”

When asked if this could lead to a “doomsday” scenario, whereby the “sharks” have driven all the “minnows” out of the game, Cummings said that is in fact a concern.

“I'd call it a real threat,” he said. “And I would suggest that some of the biggest sharks are eating some of the smaller ones too.”

He estimated that CAW players now account for 33% of the total handle in U.S. racing

Cummings is not in favor of banning CAW players. He recognizes that if they go away overall handle would plummet, which could be catastrophic. The answer he says is to find ways to level the playing field when it comes to the sharks versus the minnows, starting with the takeout.

“Takeout rates have not come down commensurate with all of this money coming in (from CAW players) at low price points and driven by technology,” he said. “That's the opposite experience that investors have had in almost all other areas, where we have seen costs for customers come crashing down. The days of the $35 stock commission are long gone. And yet 50, 60, maybe even 70% of all trading on the stock market now is high-frequency trading. Ordinary investors in 401Ks and IRAs, regular mutual fund holders, exchange traded funds, different products have been created to allow ordinary investors to buy and hold. And their costs have come down from where they were 20 years ago. We have not seen that same evolution in American horse racing wagering, which remains one of the most expensive gambles out there.”

Cummings also called on the industry to end all jackpot bets. He has found that not only do they keep money out of circulation by cutting down on churn, but that the CAW players often come in and take home a disproportionate amount of the pool at the expense of the regular player.

“If you run a parimutuel wagering business and your goal is to keep collecting commissions on parimutuel wagering, then why introduce a bet that limits the number of times that a customer can keep coming back to your window and churning their money?” he said. “You're going in the complete opposite direction to all traditional business logic, which is you should drive customers back into your wagering pools. Yet, tracks continued to persist with these bets. The jackpots need to go as quickly as possible. Tracks need to revert to a traditional play, get that daily payout, get that churn up. The sport needs churn. It's better for every stakeholder along the way.”

Elsewhere on the podcast, which is also sponsored by Coolmore,https://lanesend.com/ the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association, Kentucky Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders, 1/st Racing, WinStar Farm, Lane's End, XBTV.com and https://www.threechimneys.com/ West Point Thoroughbreds, the team of Bill Finley, Randy Moss and T.D. Thornton, took a look at the win by Two Phil's (Hard Spun) in the GIII Ohio Derby and his subsequent injury and retirement. There was a look back at the Royal Ascot meet, where one of the highlights was the win by the U.S. based 2-year-old filly Crimson Advocate (Nyquist) in the G2 Queen Mary S., and a look ahead at Saturday's GI Stephen Foster S. at Ellis Park. The podcastwrapped up with a discussion on a new proposed rule by the New York Gaming Commission which would require all horses to undergo checks by a veterinarian 72 hours prior to a race or a workout.

Click here to watch the Writers' Room podcast or here for the audio-only version.

The post Pat Cummings Joins The TDN Writers’ Room Podcast appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Andy Beyer Joins TDN Writers’ Room to Handicap the Kentucky Derby

Andy Beyer, the longtime racing columnist for the Washington Post and the creator of the Beyer Speed Figures that appear in the Daily Racing Form, is never short of opinions, especially when it comes to who will win the GI Kentucky Derby. With the race right around the corner, we asked Beyer to give us his thoughts on the race and share his handicapping acumen on the TDN Writers' Room podcast, which is presented by Keeneland. Beyer was this week's Green Group Guest of the Week.

After some spirited and amusing debate about how to pronounce Forte's name, Beyer said he's no fan of that horse, saying that Forte (Violence) “won't hit the board.”

“I don't like him,” he said. “I don't like him because the name issue grates on me every time I hear it. He is not historically what we look for in the Kentucky Derby, which is a horse on the upgrade coming into the Derby. He clearly doesn't fit that profile. Yes, he is trained by Todd Pletcher. But as we know, Todd's forte is not training horses to win the Derby. His record in this race is two for 62. So I don't think you get any extra credit for being in the Pletcher barn in this race. I want no part of Forte. I don't think he'll hit the board.”

Then who does he like? It's Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits).

“I am looking for a history making Japanese victory on Saturday night with Derma Sotogake,” Beyer said. “It's not a great Derby. But what makes it really interesting to me is the Japanese presence. And I've been looking a lot at this and I think that Japan is really on the brink of becoming the number one power in world horse racing, eclipsing even Great Britain and the United States. It's going to happen at the present rate eventually. And the coming out party just might be Saturday.”

Beyer said he is so bullish on the Japanese horses that he even gave a long look to longshot Continuar (Jpn) (Drefong).

“I was going to pick Continuar as my 50 to 1 bomber just because he is trained by the top Japanese trainer and was really going to be under the radar,” Beyer said. “But he evidently has not trained that well since he's been at Churchill.”

Based on the Beyer figures, the field for the GI Kentucky Oaks is among the slowest ever. Predictably, Beyer didn't have anything good to say about that race.

“I was so depressed looking at the figures in the Oaks that I just haven't even focused on it yet,” he said. “The idea that nobody in that field has run a figure over 91 is just embarrassing. I've never seen a race this famous look so bad from the speed figure standpoint.”

The post Andy Beyer Joins TDN Writers’ Room to Handicap the Kentucky Derby appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Leslie And Pierre Amestoy Join The TDN Writers’ Room Podcast

Owners Leslie and Pierre Amestoy have been involved with a bunch of good horses, some of them stakes-winning Quarter Horses, but never anything like Practical Move (Practical Joke). The winner of the GII San Felipe S. and the GI Santa Anita Derby so far this year, he will be among the favorites in the upcoming GI Kentucky Derby.

The TDN Writers' Room podcast, presented by Keeneland caught up with the Amestoys this week to find out more about their operation, their background and their thoughts on Practical Move. They were the Green Group Guests of the Week.

Their trainer Tim Yakteen, has been a big part of the story. While he has deputized for Bob Baffert the last two years with his potential Derby starters, he's not normally someone who you think of when it comes to having Derby starters. But the Amestoys believe he has been a perfect fit when it comes to Practical Move.

“One of my old racing partners, Mike Abraham, knew Tim,” Pierre said. “And then another friend of mine, Jaime Gomez from Los Alamitos, knew Tim. I told them that I wanted to go to a nice barn, but I don't want to be with one of those barns that has 300, 400 horses. I want a more on-hands trainer. They both recommended Tim.

“We didn't meet him Tim till last year's Del Mar meet, when Practical Move was running his first race was. He was just as nice as could be. And we could see the operation in the barn. Leslie trained for ten or 15 years. So we knew what we wanted and Tim was what we wanted. He had a great set up and a good operation.”

The Amestoys, who own Practical Move in partnership with Roger Beasley, bought the horse at last year's OBS April sale. They said he was their number one pick among all the horses in the sale, but almost didn't get him. They budgeted $175,000 for the purchase and wound up paying $230,000. They liked the horse enough that they kept bidding until they got him.

“He was our number one pick, which we never get when we got to sales,” Leslie said. “We always pick the number one and can't buy him. We got him and we had no buyer's remorse ever. Oh, we loved him from the start.”

And that's why they named him Practical Move, because, in the end they thought it was a practical move to buy the colt.

As far as the Derby goes, the Amestoys are already thinking strategy.

“I think he's tactical enough,” Pierre said. “Ramon (Vasquez) can put him where he wants him. I would hope we can get a good enough break that we hit the first turn and we have two thirds of them behind us. We want to be up in the first tier or right behind the first tier of horses. This horse has a really good, really strong, high cruising speed so we can get a good spot and then cruise on the backside and set ourselves up. So if we get our trip, I think coming out of the turn, we're going to be close to the leader and then they're going to have to come get us. If his horse switches leads like he's supposed to I think he'll finish strong.”

Elsewhere on the podcast, which is also sponsored by Coolmore, the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association, Kentucky Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders, 1/ST Racing, WinStar Farm, and West Point Thoroughbreds, the team of Randy Moss, Zoe Cadman and Bill Finley took a look back at the problems with the track surface at Laurel, the positive results coming out of Hawthorne since that track cut the takeout on win, place and show bets to 12% and the newest additions to the Hall of Fame. Not to be missed, the trio also discussed Proxy (Tapit)'s win in the GII Oaklawn H., and the decision by Jimmy Jerkens, who has been struggling to find the winner's circle the last few years, to start training in Saudi Arabia.

Click here to listen to the audio version of this podcast or click here to watch the video version.

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