Proxy | Horse Racing Free Tips

With ‘Phenomenal Workouts,’ Risen Star Winner Mandaloun Leads Louisiana Derby Field

Mention Juddmonte Farms' homebred Mandaloun to trainer Brad Cox and the reaction is telling. And immediate. Cox is looking forward to showing the rest of the racing world what he's thought all along—that Mandaloun is one serious 3-year-old—when he starts as a strong favorite in a sterling renewal of Saturday's 108th running of the $1 million TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots.

Run at 1 3/16 miles, the Louisiana Derby will offer 170 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, on a 100-40-20-10 scale, and highlight a robust 14-race card that includes eight stakes overall, including the supporting feature, the $400,000 TwinSpires.com Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) for 3-year-old fillies.

Mandaloun (post 6, as Mike Diliberto's 8-5 morning line favorite, with Florent Geroux to ride), a son of Into Mischief, burst on the national scene as a 2-year-old, easily winning both starts sprinting in Kentucky at short odds. Things didn't go as swimmingly in his 3-year-old debut, however, as he was third at odds-on in the local Lecomte (G3) in January, finishing behind winter rivals Midnight Bourbon and Proxy. Mandaloun was also making his two-turn and stakes debut in the Lecomte, and after taking a step back to look at the big picture, Cox wasn't as disappointed as maybe the betting public and Mandaloun's fan club was.

“You have to keep in mind it was his first start around two turns and first start in a stakes and he was a little bit wide the entire way,” Cox said. “I think he got a lot out of the race and moved forward off it. From a physical standpoint he looks like he's continued to develop.”

Cox also decided to make what would be a key equipment change after the Lecomte, as he put blinkers on for the Feb. 13 Risen Star (G2). Mandaloun trained brilliantly in the mornings with blinkers and backed Cox's high praise in the afternoon, when a much more polished colt turned the tables on both Proxy and Midnight Bourbon with an authoritative 1 ¼-length win, while earning the 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points that went with it. To Cox, the win and marked improvement was due to a combination of things.

“More than anything, it was just the experience of having the race going two turns under his belt,” Cox said afterwards. “I think the blinkers did help out. Florent immediately made a comment after the race. Much more focused in the post parade, more focused on his job. We didn't put a bunch of cup on him, just like a one-inch cup, but it seems to have done the trick to get him mentally over the top, mentally getting him where he needs to be.”

With the Risen Star behind him, and a berth in the Run of the Roses already assured, Mandaloun heads to the Louisiana Derby in a bit of an interesting position. Cox, who won the race last year with Wells Bayou, doesn't want to squeeze the lemon dry Saturday, even though there are a million reasons to do so. Mandaloun has continued to flourish in his training, highlighted by a March 6 bullet :59 1/5 drill going five furlongs over the track, which gives his trainer that much more confidence that he can pull off an elusive double that hasn't accomplished since Grindstone did it in 1996.

“His last two works have been phenomenal; we've done as much with him in the morning than we can do,” Cox said. “The goal is to get the job done on Saturday. He's going to have six weeks to recover, if he runs the way we hope he should, to point to the Kentucky Derby. There will be a period there where he can recover then hopefully, we can start cranking him up towards the end of April for the first Saturday in May.”

Godolphin's homebred Proxy (post 4 at 7-2 with John Velazquez) was a game second in the Risen Star and will try to emulate Mandaloun's path to victory, as he'll add blinkers for the meet's signature race. The son of Tapit has been a meet-long work in progress for trainer Mike Stidham, who has continually said the best is yet to come for a colt still on the improve. Proxy, who is 2-for-5 lifetime, broke his maiden and won an optional-claimer earlier in the meet before running second in the Lecomte, but after losing focus and dropping back entering the far turn of the Risen Star, only to re-break and salvage second, Stidham felt the time was right for a change.

“There were just a number of reasons why the blinkers were added,” Stidham said. “If you look at all of his races here at the Fair Grounds, in every race you can kind of see him doing a little erratic stuff, whether it be shying away, drifting out, or losing focus like he did in the Risen Star. You can't win Kentucky Derbies or Louisiana Derbies by doing that.”

Proxy has since worked three times with blinkers, which includes a Feb. 26 bullet 47 seconds flat four-furlong move. Stidham is confident the equipment change will have an impact, as will the elongated distance of the Louisiana Derby

“I felt like the works with blinkers, in company, he was definitely a little handier for the rider and more focused,” Stidham said. “We're finally getting these horses at our game; without a doubt the 1 3/16 miles is a big help. I'm welcoming the added distance and I'm hoping things go well here and then we get even more distance in Kentucky.”

Winchell Thoroughbreds' Midnight Bourbon (post 7 at 5-1 with Joe Talamo) will look to rebound after running third in the Risen Star, though he was beaten just 1 ¾ lengths in what was only slight regression after his strong Lecomte win for trainer Steve Asmussen. The son of Tiznow wired the Lecomte but settled in second in the Risen Star before tiring slightly late while showing plenty of versatility and backing up his biggest career win. Midnight Bourbon is 2-for-6 lifetime and gives Asmussen reason for excitement as he jumps back in to try Mandaloun and Proxy once again.

“I've always thought those three were very serious 3-year-olds, not just at the Fair Grounds but they are as good a prospect as you want to be around and I don't think they've done nothing to change anybody's opinion of that,” Asmussen said. “The addition of blinkers on the one (Mandaloun) and Proxy has been consistent, with the pedigrees they have, all three of them (including Midnight Bourbon) are capable, but at this point of your 3-year-old year, you either get better or you get beat. You've got to improve. What you've done (so far) is not going to be enough.”

Tom Durant's Run Classic (post 3 at 12-1 with Brian Hernandez Jr.) won a two-turn maiden special weight on the Risen Star undercard and will look to emulate history for trainer Bret Calhoun, who pulled the same double in 2019, when By My Standards broke his maiden on Risen Star Day and went on to win the Louisiana Derby. Calhoun knows it's a big ask, but he also knows he's got a son of Run Happy who is loaded with potential.

“We've been high on him for a long time; he's shown talent, he's performed up to expectations so far,” Calhoun said. “I know it's a big step forward, but we wouldn't be attempting this if we didn't think he was a pretty smart, good-minded horse”

Roadrunner Racing, Boat Racing, and William Strauss' Hot Rod Charlie (post 5 at 3-1 with Joel Rosario) adds plenty of California class to the equation, as he was second to 2-year-old champion Essential Quality in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Keeneland in November for trainer Doug O'Neill. The son of Oxbow returned at 3 to be third behind the talented Medina Spirit in the Jan. 30 Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita and invades for a barn that won Risen Star in 2007 and Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) in 2016 and 2017. Hot Rod Charlie is just 1-for-6 lifetime but owns a maiden win, to go with the Juvenile and Lewis runs, in what are his only three starts at two turns on the dirt. O'Neill's assistant Leandro Moro will be the trainer of record on Saturday.

Barrett Bernard, Tagg Team Racing, and West Point Thoroughbreds' O Besos (post 8 at 15-1 with Marcelino Pedroza) was fourth in the Risen Star, in what was his two-turn debut. The son of Orb won twice sprinting at the meet for trainer Greg Foley before stretching out in an encouraging effort that he could build on.

Wayne T. Davis' Rightandjust (post 2 at 20-1 with Colby Hernandez), was sixth after setting the pace in the Risen Star for trainer Shane Wilson, and owner-trainer Dallas Stewart and WinStar Farm's Starrininmydreams (post 1 at 20-1 with Luis Saez) was ninth, in what was his seasonal debut.

Additional Louisiana Derby quotes:

Stidham, Proxy: His last work, we weren't looking for anything special. He worked by himself and he was comfortable going easy fractions. He's run four times at the meet and I know I have a fit horse, so I wasn't looking for anything fast, just a nice even, steady work. I don't worry about the blinkers making him overly aggressive, since he's not that type of horse. Even with the blinkers, you have to make him do what he does. He's not a horse that is going to drag you out of the saddle.

We would love to win this race; it's an important race for the horse and for my own personal reasons. But the only thing I'm truly looking for is this horse to take another step forward on numbers. If that meant running a huge race and running second, I would accept that because obviously the ultimate goal is having a horse that is going to be competitive in the Kentucky Derby.

Calhoun, Run Classic: He's pretty much done everything right so far and it seems like he's moved forward since the last race. I can tell he's a little more serious about his works. He was just doing things on raw talent and ability early on and I don't how much he knew what he was doing. Now he seems more focused on the task which translates to him being even that much more impressive in the mornings.

It looks like a pretty honest pace. It looks like there are several of them in there that show pretty good route speed. My horse has the ability to get pretty good position early on. If they're going too fast, I think Brian (jockey Hernandez, Jr.) will be sitting off of it. The added distance is definitely a concern, but I think it's a concern for all of them. I understand pedigree-wise it raises some questions (for us) but physically he looks like this is what he's meant to do. In his last race, Brian made this horse finish up and gallop out quite a bit and I don't think we got to the bottom of the tank. In his recent works, he's come home pretty quick. He's got a high cruising speed and he accelerates pretty strongly late and gallops out pretty strong. He hasn't shown us any distance limitations in the mornings. Obviously, a mile-and-three-sixteenths is going to be a big test for him as well as some of the others.”

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Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card: Upping The Ante For Kentucky Derby Points

The stakes got a lot bigger last Saturday for horses on the road to the Triple Crown with the Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds in New Orleans, La. The nine-furlong race is the first of seven contests that will offer 85 Kentucky Derby qualifying points (50-20-10-5 to the first four finishers), virtually assuring the winners will get into the Derby field.

The Kentucky Derby Championship Series also has eight races worth 170 points (100-40-20-10) and one race offering 34 points (20-8-4-2).

At Golden Gate Fields in Albany, Calif., the $100,000 El Camino Real Derby handed out 17 points to the top four finishers (10-4-2-1) and the winner gets free entry into the G1 Preakness Stakes.

A number of very good horses have come out of the Risen Star (formerly known as the Louisiana Derby Trial Stakes, including the one-two finishers in 2019: War of Will, who would win that year's Preakness, and Country House, who was awarded the G1 Kentucky Derby via disqualification of Maximum Security for interference.

Three years earlier, the Risen Star was won by Gun Runner, who would go on to win the G2 Louisiana Derby, finish third in the Kentucky Derby, and take seven of his final eight career starts, capped by the G1 Breeders' Cup Classic and G1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational.

The El Camino Real Derby's heyday was back in the 1980s and '90s, when a trio of Preakness winners were victorious in the race (Tank's Prospect in 1985, Snow Chief in '86 and Tabasco Cat, who also won the Belmont Stakes, in '94). Two El Camino winners went on to finish second in the Kentucky Derby: Casual Lies in 1992 and Cavonnier in '96.

The race has had little impact on the Triple Crown since Golden Gate went to the Tapeta synthetic surface in 2007.

Following is a glance at the Risen Star and El Camino Real Derby, along with my grades for the winners, which are based on how the horses looked, what Beyer Speed Figure they received, historical significance of the race and perceived quality of field.

Feb. 13 Risen Star Stakes, 1 1/8 miles, Louisiana Downs

The three horses who finished within a length of each other in the G3 Lecomte Stakes at 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds on Jan. 16 were back: Midnight Bourbon won the Lecomte, with Proxy second and Mandaloun third. The late-running Senor Buscador, winner of the Springboard Mile last out at Remington Park in Oklahoma Dec. 18, was a new addition to a mostly local lineup of 11 starters.

Midnight Bourbon and jockey Joe Talamo did not get the lead as they did in the Lecomte, usurped by Rightandjust, who crossed over from the outside post and went pretty quickly for the opening quarter mile (:23.65). Midnight Bourbon raced off Rightandjust's right flank, about a length ahead of Mandaloun and Florent Geroux, who were three wide throughout but more engaged than in the Lecomte after the addition of blinkers by trainer Brad Cox. Proxy, with John Velazquez up, was a close fourth for the opening half mile, running in spurts and slipping back going into the far turn after a second quarter mile in :24.80 and a third quarter in :24.29 (for half-mile and six-furlong splits of :48.45 and 1:12.74).

Mandaloun winning the Risen Star, Florent Geroux aboard

Midnight Bourbon poked his head in front of Rightandjust inside the quarter pole but Mandaloun quickly was alongside and began to edge away from the Lecomte winner. The fourth quarter went in :24.76 and Mandaloun ran his final furlong in :12.89 for a final time of 1:50.39 on a fast track.

Proxy ran an uneven race but finished with interest out in the middle of the track, closing from four lengths back after six furlongs and two lengths back at the furlong pole to draw within a 1 ¼ lengths of the winner. If the son of Tapit out of the multiple G1 winner Panty Raid (by Include) puts it all together he will be a tough customer in a rematch with Mandaloun.

The winner received a 98 Beyer Speed Figure, a big improvement from the 89 he got in the Lecomte and the third successive improved figure since his debut at Keeneland last fall. The blinkers, along with more racing experience, have turned Mandaloun into a very legitimate Kentucky Derby prospect for owner-breeder Juddmonte Farms and for Cox, who also has 2020 2-year-old male champion Essential Quality and Oaklawn's Smarty Jones winner Caddo River in his quiver.

Grade: B+

Feb. 13 El Camino Real Derby, 1 1/8 miles, Golden Gate Fields

Michael McCarthy-trained Rombauer was the 6-5 favorite while making his first start since a fifth-place finish behind Essential Quality in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Keeneland last November 6. He was entered and scratched from the G3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes on Jan. 30, reportedly at the request of the owners/breeders, John and Diane Fradkin, who preferred the El Camino Real Derby.

This was the Twirling Candy colt's first race over a synthetic surface, though he began his career on turf, winning his debut last July going a mile at Del Mar, then finished sixth in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf. He then ran a good second on dirt to Get Her Number in the G1 American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita Sept. 26. Then came the Breeders' Cup, in which Rombauer broke from the 13 post in a 14-horse field, was 13 lengths back after a half mile, weaved through traffic and gained steadily in the short stretch at Keeneland to be beaten 6 ¼ lengths.

Rombauer and Kyle Frey defeat Javanica in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields

In the El Camino Real, Rombauer dropped back to last under Kyle Frey as It's My House set steady fractions of :24.00, :47.81 and 1:12.20 for six furlongs. Frey made a wide move on the turn and was up in the final yards to beat the filly Javanica by a neck, completing the distance in 1:51.64 after a mile in 1:38.56. Javanica, a Godolphin homebred by Medaglia d'Oro trained by Eoin Harty, was finishing second for the fourth consecutive stakes, beginning with the Glorious Song Stakes at Woodbine last October.

Rombauer received an 84 Beyer Speed Figure, compared to an 85 for his Breeders' Cup effort. This was not a particular strong field (the only two stakes winners won races restricted to California-breds) but a good stepping stone for Rombauer to prepare for much tougher competition down the road.

Grade: C

The only upcoming weekend Kentucky Derby points race is the Hyacinth Stakes at Tokyo Racecourse that is part of the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Previously:

Feb 9 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

Feb 2 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

Jan 26 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

Jan. 18 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

Jan. 3 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

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TDN Derby Top 12 for February 17

The weather-related rescheduling of Oaklawn's GIII Southwest S. to the final weekend in February will cause some havoc for downstream prep races. The GII Rebel S. on Mar. 13 will now have only a two-week spacing within the Oaklawn series and Southwest participants who figured to run back in the Mar. 20 GII Louisiana Derby also might balk at having just three weeks off between preps and then six weeks until the GI Kentucky Derby itself. But our sport has gotten quite used to unexpected schedule switches over the last year, so the caravan will roll on with everyone making the necessary adjustments. Now let's dive into the rankings:

1) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt & GISW, 3-3-0-0, $1,335,144.
Last Start: 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity
Next Start: GIII Southwest S., OP
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 30.

We've waited 3 1/2 months, so another small extended layoff will only add to the anticipation for the Southwest S. showdown between GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile champ Essential Quality and Jackie's Warrior, the fourth-place 9-10 fave in that race. This 3-for-3 'TDN Rising Star' by Tapit won back-to-back Grade I routes over Keeneland's short-stretch 1 1/16 miles configuration last autumn. His GI Breeders' Futurity S. win was a confident display of professional pace pressing, and this gray Godolphin homebred's late-closing Juvenile score earned the top two-turn Beyer Speed Figure (95) by any 2-year-old in 2020. Has any Kentucky Derby winner ever broken his maiden on the previous year's Derby undercard? I doubt it but could not ascertain that's never happened (input welcomed from readers with deeper historical resources). Yet the pandemic-delayed Derby of 2020 could produce that very scenario, as Essential Quality broke his maiden on the Sept. 5 undercard of the rescheduled Run for the Roses. Another bit of trivia: Did you know that 30 consecutive grays have gone to post and lost the Derby since the last gray, Giacomo, roared home first at 50-1 in 2005?

2) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: SW, 4-2-2-0, $166,092. Last Start: 1st Smarty Jones S., OP, Jan. 22.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Among the current Top 12 contenders, the trait that sets apart 'TDN Rising Star' Caddo River is his demonstrated ability over four lifetime races to fluidly reach a high cruising speed and to carry it comfortably up to a mile. He stalked and withstood serious pace pressure in two well-stocked MSW sprints over seven furlongs in New York to start his learning curve. Then he broke out with a 9 1/2-length maiden score in a one-turn Churchill mile (83 Beyer) after carving out demanding splits of :22.38 and :44.59. Caddo River cudgeled the Smarty Jones S. crew by 10 1/4 lengths on opening day at Oaklawn (92 Beyer), and trainer Brad Cox said last Thursday this Hard Spun homebred for Shortleaf Stable remains on track for the GII Rebel S. “Probably going to miss a work [because of the spate of unseasonable icy weather in Hot Springs]. But his race is not until, really, the middle of next month, so I don't feel like we're in any trouble as far as missing a race or anything.”

3) GREATEST HONOUR (c, Tapit–Tiffany's Honour, by Street Cry {Ire})
O/B-Courtlandt Farms (KY). T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-1-2, $175,240.
Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S., GP, Jan. 30
Next Start: GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27 or GI Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Greatest Honour was back on the Payson Park work tab Saturday, two weeks after his smashing late run in the GIII Holy Bull S. stamped him as the horse to beat in the Florida preps. In an under-wraps maintenance breeze for both sophomores, trainer Shug McGaughey worked him to the inside of the 2-for-3 Creed (Honor Code), and both were credited with the same :50.60 (29/58) half-mile clocking even though Creed pulsed ahead by a neck at the wire. This Courtlandt Farms homebred by Tapit isn't light on experience. He has five lifetime races (including two at 1 1/16 miles and a MSW at nine furlongs) and has never been out of the money, so there's no big push to get him ready for the Feb. 27 GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. if the Mar. 27 GI Florida Derby ends up being a better fit, timing-wise. One shining aspect of Greatest Honour's past-performance cut is that twice now as a 3-year-old he's won closing from well off the tailgate at 1 1/16 miles, which at Gulfstream is configuration that usually plays to the advantage of early speed because the start is close to the turn and the finish is at the sixteenth pole.

4) LIFE IS GOOD (c, Into Mischief–Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor)
O-CHC Inc & WinStar Farm LLC. B-Gary & Mary West Stable (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $525,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $94,200.
Last Start: 1st GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 2
Next Start: GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

'TDN Rising Star' Life Is Good retained his 7-1 favored status among the 23 individually ranked horses in Derby Future Wager Pool 3 that closed on Sunday (the “all others” field was 3-1). The West Coast's top-ranked Triple Crown threat breezed five furlongs at Santa Anita in 1:00.80 (4/33) Monday in preparation for a scheduled start in the Mar. 6 GII San Felipe S. Trainer Bob Baffert had noted after a bullet move the previous week that this $525,000 KEESEP Into Mischief bay is “starting to mature and fill out; he just floats over the ground.” The winning prep sequence of the GIII Sham S. and San Felipe is the same blueprint Baffert used last spring to get Authentic ready for the Kentucky Derby. But, of course, Authentic's non-traditional path to the Derby winner's circle also included the benefit of four additional months of seasoning because the pandemic rescheduled the Derby from May to September. Baffert has said that, like Authentic at this stage of his career, Life Is Good needs to relax and learn to leverage his main weapon (raw speed) in a manner that will be effective over 10 furlongs. Can this colt manage to figure that out before the first Saturday in May? A schedule that includes the San Felipe and (presumably) just one nine-furlong Grade I (Apr. 3 Santa Anita Derby or Apr. 10 Arkansas Derby) leaves little room for error.

5) JACKIE'S WARRIOR (c, Maclean's Music–Unicorn Girl, by
A. P. Five Hundred)
O-J Kirk & Judy Robison. B-J & J Stables (KY). T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $95,000 ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $502,564.
Last Start: 4th GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments: 1st GII Saratoga Special, 1st GI Runhappy Hopeful S., 1st GI Champagne S.
Next Start: GIII Southwest S., OP
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 12.

The Essential Quality-Jackie's Warrior rematch will be the closest thing we've had to a real rivalry so far this season. Yes, they've only met once previously, but that Breeders' Cup clash amounted to the season championship and neither has raced since, so the Southwest S. takes on more gravitas. I'm prognosticating an edge to “Jackie” over the speed-leaning Oaklawn surface at 1 1/16 miles, but longer distances later could swing the advantage in “EQ's” direction. How have horses from last year's Juvenile fared in their next races? So far eight have started, but only Keepmeinmind (Laoban) and Rombauer (Twirling Candy) were next-out winners; both ran Beyers lower than what they had earned in the Juvenile. In fact, six of the eight Juvenile run-backs failed to increase their Beyers the next time they started, which is not a promising sign of that race's strength. This $95,000 KEESEP colt was 4-for-4 in one-turn races at age two, and his immediate pedigree is a fascinating study in length-of-career contrasts: Sire Maclean's Music (like Jackie, also trained by Steve Asmussen) wired a Santa Anita sprint in his debut by 7 1/4 lengths. He earned a 114 Beyer—the highest debut Beyer ever—yet never raced again after being retired over complications related to a fractured splint bone. Dam Unicorn Girl, conversely, was a robust starter-allowance stalwart who raced 54 times with a 19-7-8 record over seven seasons on the mid-Atlantic circuit.

6) PREVALENCE (c, Medaglia d'Oro—Enrichment, by Ghostzapper)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $25,800.
Last Start: 1st Maiden Special Weight, GP, Jan. 23
Next Start: Possible for GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

The Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. (FOY) has been identified as a likely next-race target for 'Wowza!' maiden-breaker Prevalence, but trainer Brendan Walsh also noted the Godolphin homebred's team could call an audible and instead opt for a nine-furlong allowance/optional claimer two days earlier at Gulfstream as Plan B. This Medaglia d'Oro-sired 'TDN Rising Star' won his Jan. 23 debut by 8 1/2 geared-down lengths after sparring through a five-way fight for the lead in a “loaded” seven-furlong MSW (beating Justify's half-brother and a $1.05 million KEESEP buy). “I thought he was a good horse before he ran, but did I expect him to do what he did? Absolutely not, especially one of mine first time out,” Walsh said. “They generally improve, so I would like to think that this guy has some improvement in him. We won't get too carried away. We'll move on to the next one, and he'll be given plenty of chances to prove himself as we go forward … If we go to the FOY or the allowance race, he'll probably [work] Friday or Saturday and that should set him up right.”

7) MANDALOUN (c, Into Mischief–Brooch, by Empire Maker)
O/B-Juddmonte Farms Inc. (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-1, $351,252.
Last Start: 1st GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Next Start: Possible for GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 3rd GIII Lecomte S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 52.

Mandaloun was facing a make-or-break point in his Derby campaign Saturday when favored to win the GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds. Trainer Brad Cox had said pre-race he was not wild about running back so soon off a subpar showing in the Jan. 16 GIII Lecomte S., but he felt the need to “push him along a little more.” Cox then equipped this Into Mischief-sired Juddmonte homebred with a one-inch blinker cup for the first time and the result was not only a 1 1/4-length victory but a nine-point jump in Mandaloun's career-best Beyer to a 98. Mandaloun was three wide on both turns while stalking in third, and he wore down two duelers and the running-in-spots closer Proxy (Tapit) to register a workmanlike victory. “He's always been a little funny down the lane,” said jockey Florent Geroux, citing the blinkers as a help. “He's never given me his full potential. We had the same kind of trip we had in the Lecomte, but when I pushed on the gas, he responded right away. Last time I feel like he wasn't giving me his best. He was a little more focused.” Cox said post-race the GII Louisiana Derby “is definitely going to be in play.”

8) PROXY (c, Tapit–Panty Raid, by Include)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Michael Stidham. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 5-2-3-0, $187,700.
Last Start: 2nd GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Next Start: Possible for GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 2nd GIII Lecomte S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 24.

It's difficult to get a true read on the one-two performances by Mandaloun and Proxy in the Risen Star S. because of the drying-out nature of the Fair Grounds track on Saturday. Quick times and big winning margins dominated speed-favoring races early in the day, but the track appeared to slow down and play more evenly to horses rating from farther back by the time the stakes races rolled around (overall there were five dirt wire winners, two pace pressers, two stalkers, and two closers). Proxy was a midpack fourth at the rail for most of his trip under new rider John Velazquez, then seemed to lose steam when nudged along seven-sixteenths out. But the colt sparked back to interest when Johnny V. swung him widest for the drive, and although this Tapit homebred for Godolphin only ran along in spots down the lane, he continued his four-race trend of upping his Beyer number every time out, clocking in with a career-top 97. “He's inching in the right direction,” said trainer Michael Stidham.

9) HIGHLY MOTIVATED (c, Into Mischief–Strong Incentive, by Warrior's Reward)
O/B-Klaravich Stables, Inc (KY). T-Chad Brown. Sales History: $240,000 wlg '18 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-2-1-0, $124,050.
Last Start: 1st Nyquist S., KEE, Nov. 6
Next Start: GIII Gotham S., AQU, Mar. 6
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

If current prep-race schedules hold (and they seem to change every few days lately thanks to Mother Nature), this $240,000 KEENOV Into Mischief colt figures to be the last horse among the Top 12 to debut at age three if he goes in the GIII Gotham S. Mar. 6. Highly Motivated hasn't raced since winning the Nyquist S. on the Breeders' Cup undercard on Nov. 6, meaning he'll have a 121-day gap between starts. He set a track record for 6 1/2 furlongs in what later turned out to be a key race (three next-out winners), but that “record” designation has to be considered in the context of five other Keeneland main-track records also being established on a speed-centric surface; plus Keeneland's small sample of main-track records only dates to the autumn of 2014, when synthetic got changed back to dirt. Assuming Highly Motivated runs well enough in his next prep to remain on the Derby trail, he's still going to be challenged by having only one (likely) true route race under his belt by the time May 1 arrives, because the Gotham is a one-turn mile.

10) MEDINA SPIRIT (c, Protonico–Mongolian Changa, by Briliant Speed)
O-Zedan Racing Stables. B-Gail Rice (FL). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $1,000 ylg '19 OBSWIN; $35,000 2yo '20 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $105,200.
Last Start: 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30
Next Start: Uncommitted
Accomplishments: 2nd GIII Sham S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 14.

As the least expensive Top 12 candidate ($1,000 OBSWIN, $35,000 OBSOPN), this Protonico colt out of a Brilliant Speed mare has earned underdog rooting status for the tenacious way he took pressure on the lead through swift fractions in the GIII Lewis S., then never let another horse get by him in a three-way, length-of-stretch fight that had him a neck in front at the wire. Private clocker and bloodstock agent Gary Young, who purchased the Florida-bred for owner Amr Zedan, told the Santa Anita notes team that Medina Sprit “was OK, but he wasn't going to be the sales topper or anything … He had worked three-eighths in :33 flat which was decent time, but he had a nice rhythm and a stride like a route horse.” Young added that prior to the colt's debut win at Los Alamitos in December, he was “outworking more expensive and better-bred horses and definitely holding his own.” Young said Medina Spirit's connections are still mulling whether to plot a one- or two-prep race plan to get to the Derby, but he also emphasized that the colt is likely more effective chasing a target (like in his Sham S. second behind Life Is Good) rather than setting the pace like he did in the Lewis.

11) KEEPMEINMIND (c, Laoban–Inclination, by Victory Gallop)
O-Cypress Creek LLC & Arnold Bennewith. B-Southern Equine Stables, LLC (KY). T-Robertino Diodoro. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 4-1-2-1, $394,320.
Last Start: 1st GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., CD, Nov. 28
Accomplishments: 2nd GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity,
3rd GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Next Start: GIII Southwest S., OP
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 18.

Keepmeinmind was entered but scratched out of the Risen Star S. three days prior to last Saturday's Fair Grounds race, but trainer Robertino Diodoro's desire to “run him out of his own stall” at Oaklawn has yet to come to fruition because the date of the Southwest has now been moved three times. This is an off-the-pace specialist (and a grandson of stay-all-day Victory Gallop) who might not fire his best shot going 1 1/16 miles over a speed-friendly surface like Oaklawn's, but he bears watching for the day down the road when he can more comfortably uncoil over a longer distance–ideally with several early-pace types setting up the fractions to his advantage.

12) CANDY MAN ROCKET (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Kenny Lane, by Forestry)
O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc; B-R S Evans (KY). T-Bill Mott. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-0-0, $144,824.
Last Start: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis S., TAM, Feb. 6
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Candy Man Rocket's 85-Beyer win in the GIII Davis S. Feb. 6 represented a decent step up for a colt who had just broken his maiden in start number two and had never faced winners nor raced around two turns. But the fact that he's trained by the very patient but realistic Bill Mott is what truly edges him into this week's Top 12, because Mott doesn't bother with the Derby trail if he doesn't believe his horses truly belong. This colt RNA'd for $190,000 (KEENOV) and $70,000 (KEESEP) prior to hammering for $250,000 (OBSAPR), and his connections acknowledged in a detailed TDN profile last week that Candy Man Rocket still needed seasoning when he debuted seventh at Churchill Nov. 22. But this colt sure was ready for prime time in start number two, a 9 1/4-length Gulfstream blowout, and in the Davis he got first run at a pacemaker who set legit splits. Mott said the GII Tampa Bay Derby is a possibility, although owner Frank Fletcher is an Arkansas native and has indicated he wouldn't mind seeing his top soph race at Oaklawn.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Concert Tour (Street Sense): 'TDN Rising Star' scored a 94-Beyer stalking win in the GII San Vicente, but this 2-5 fave had a bit more tussle than expected getting by stablemate Freedom Fighter (Violence) in the stretch.

Dream Shake (Twirling Candy): You don't see too many 20-1 winning firsters earning 'TDN Rising Star' status. Big confident march past leaders in 96 Beyer Santa Anita romp. But that race did feature a hot 3-5 firster who never fired, so the quality of that field is in question until we see more from this intriguing prospect.

Fire At Will (Declaration of War): GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf victor will make 2021 debut on dirt in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. “He won on [the main track] at Saratoga, even though it was muddy and against a short field,” trainer Mike Maker said.

Freedom Fighter (Violence): Ran a better race than winning 2-5 stablemate Concert Tour when second in the San Vicente S Feb. 6. Fast from gate, took pace heat, wouldn't quit in stretch. Gotham S. at Aqueduct likely next.

Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow): Slips out of the Top 12 after so-so third in Risen Star. Trainer Steve Asmussen, however, believes third time off layoff will be the charm for this $525,000 KEESEP colt in the Louisiana Derby.

Risk Taking (Medaglia d'Oro): Advanced when ready off a comfortable midpack stalk to reel in tiring pacemaker in 89-Beyer GIII Withers over nine furlongs.

The post TDN Derby Top 12 for February 17 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Cox: ‘Best Is Yet To Come’ For Risen Star Winner Mandaloun

According to their respective connections, the top three finishers from this past Saturday's Risen Star (G2) presented by Larmarque Ford-Lincoln and Rachel Alexandra (G2), presented by Fasig-Tipton, are all likely to renew acquaintances on March 20 in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) and Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). The $1 million Derby and $400,000 Oaks highlight a card that has eight stakes—four of them graded—worth a total of $2.425 million.

Juddmonte Farms' Mandaloun won the Risen Star by 1 ¼ lengths and the 50 Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) qualifying points that went with it for trainer Brad Cox, beating Proxy (20 points) and Midnight Bourbon (10). The 3-year-old son of Into Mischief added blinkers and rebounded from a third-place finish in the local January 16 Lecomte (G3) and stamped himself as one of the horses to beat not only for the local 1 3/16-mile Derby, but the one going 1 ¼ miles May 1 at Churchill Downs as well.

“The logical spot would be back here at the Fair Grounds on the 20th of March,” Cox said. “We have not confirmed that, but we'll let the horse tell us over the next few weeks. I thought he really stepped up and showed he can get the mile and an eighth and beyond. I feel like he's a horse who is moving forward in every start and hopefully the best is yet to come.”

Godolphin's homebred Proxy once again ran big in defeat for trainer Mike Stidham and the son of Tapit showed his second in the Lecomte was no fluke, while Winchell Thoroughbreds' Midnight Bourbon, a son of Tiznow, settled for third in the Risen Star after winning the Lecomte for trainer Steve Asmussen. Both camps indicated their colts came out of the Risen Star in good order and are likely to be pointed to the Louisiana Derby.

A race earlier in the Rachel Alexandra, Stonestreet Stables' homebred Clairiere turned the tables on OXO Equine's even-money favorite Travel Column, beating her by a neck after running second to her in Churchill's November 28 Golden Rod (G2). The former, a daughter of Curlin trainer by Asmussen, and the latter, a daughter of Frosted trained by Cox, are penciled in to renew their budding rivalry in the local Oaks. Clairiere earned 50 qualifying points for the April 30 Longines Kentucky Oaks, while Travel Column earned 20.

Brad King, Jim Cone, Scott Bryant, and Stan and Suzanne Kirby's Moon Swag, a daughter of Malibu Moon, was third in the Rachel Alexandra and earned 10 Oaks qualifying points, and is also likely to move on to the Oaks, according to trainer Brandan Walsh.

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