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Louisiana Derby Aftermath: Hot Rod Charlie Back to California; Mandaloun May Run In Lexington

The dust has settled after a thrilling 14-race card Saturday at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, with the TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) and Oaks (G2) in the rearview mirror. Both the local Derby and Oaks offered 100-40-20-10 qualifying points for the May 1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, and the April 30 Longines Kentucky Oaks, and several of the top finishers emerged with both races firmly on their calendar.

The connections for several of the major players had a chance to sleep on the results, evaluate how their respective horses came out their races, and plot a path to Churchill Downs. Fair Grounds media caught up with several trainers Sunday morning to get their thoughts moving forward.

Louisiana Derby:
Doug O'Neill, trainer, Hot Rod Charlie (Leandro Mora was trainer of record in Louisiana Derby) (1^st): Charlie looked great this morning. He flies back to California on Tuesday. I love the spacing (six weeks) leading up to the Kentucky Derby. It's ideal. He's proven to travel well. I'm very proud of my nephew Patrick (with Boat Racing). He's a real good young man and I'm very excited for him and all of the owners.

Scott Blasi, assistant trainer to Steve Asmussen, Midnight Bourbon (2^nd): Big effort and he's another horse (like Clairiere) that's just going to continue to improve. I don't think distance will be an issue with him and the timing, back to the Derby, off this series here, there will be plenty of time to freshen up and run his best race. We'll train here for a week and ship a week from Sunday (the 28^th).

Greg Foley, trainer, O Besos (3^rd): We all want to go forward after yesterday. The only question we had was the distance, and he answered that pretty good. He galloped out past the winner. We've got 25 (derby qualifying) points. If we got second, we wouldn't have to think about it, but now we have to hope we get in. we just have to wait and see. I don't want to run him back (before the Derby). I don't think it will affect our training. He's a dead-fit horse. We'll get hi back home next week (to Churchill Downs) and we'll just wait and see. If it gets us in, great, if it doesn't, oh well, we'll go from there. I'd like to try and get in the big one and hopefully that will get it done. At least we're not wondering any more (about the distance).

Mike Stidham, trainer, Proxy (4^th): He came back in good condition. I will discuss it with the Godolphin team and decide which direction we go in next.

Brad Cox, trainer, Mandaloun (6^th as the 6-5 favorite): We couldn't come up with any reasons for the dull performance. We'll get him back to Kentucky, see how he trains, and then go from there. I've thought about it, but I think right now I'll probably nominate him to the Lexington (G3, April 10 at Keeneland) and we'll see. He was done at the half-mile pole, so I don't think the distance was the reason (he was so dull). He ran out of horse fairly quickly. He handled everything in the paddock, so to show up and get beat by those horses we had run so well against, that was obviously disappointing. He's not that bad. We were the favorite. It's almost like you'd like to see a reason or an excuse but we aren't seeing it yet. The six weeks (to the Derby) is almost a blessing. I don't think it's a bad thing. We'll see how he trains. I'm not going to change too much with him. He bounced out of it in good shape, scoped good, no issues. He'll probably go to Churchill at some point later this week.

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Mandaloun Looks to Solidify Claim in Louisiana Derby

Juddmonte Farms' TDN Rising Star Mandaloun (Into Mischief) attempts to follow up on a professional last-out score in the GII Risen Star S. in Saturday's GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds.

Earning Rising Star status first time out going six panels at Keeneland last October, the bay followed up with another solid win while adding an additional furlong in a Churchill Downs optional claimer the following month. Heavily supported for his seasonal reappearance in the Jan. 16 GIII Lecomte S. in New Orleans, he had to settle for third, beaten two lengths, behind the re-opposing Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow) and Proxy (Tapit), a length behind the winner. For his latest success in the nine-furlong Risen Star, the colt was fitted with blinkers for the first time, a move which likely helped move the colt forward, according to Brad Cox. As in the Lecomte, Proxy finished behind the winner.

“He got a lot out of the Lecomte and I think the blinkers propelled him forward as well in his second start [of the season],” explained Cox. “He got a lot out of his first two races, but the first time going two turns in the Lecomte, you can train as much as you want but there is nothing like the experience of going two turns. He also just got more experience. It was only the fourth start of his career. He is very accomplished horse with only four starts.”

Asked about the timeline in the run-up to the First Saturday in May, Cox said, “It was four weeks back to the Risen Star off the Lecomte. He is five weeks now to the Louisiana Derby, and if all goes well, we'll have six weeks to the [May 1] Kentucky Derby. He has continued to move forward in every start. I'm good with the six weeks in between [the Louisiana and Kentucky Derbies], because he's a good work horse because he gives you what you need in the morning. At the end of the day, I think he's cut out to be a mile-and-a-half horse with the Empire Maker on the bottom side. I am very confident we can show up and do what we need to do [in the Louisiana Derby]. Hopefully, we can move forward to the Kentucky Derby.”

Hoping to repeat his winning effort in the Lecomte, Midnight Bourbon, who drew one outside of Mandaloun in the seven-hole, will be reunited with Joe Talamo, aboard for the Winchell Thoroughbreds runner's two latest starts, including his Risen Star third.

“In the Lecomte we had a really good trip and got out to a pretty easy lead that day and were able to wire them,” recalled Talamo. “Last time, even when Mandaloun and Proxy went by, if you watch that race again, he was kind of coming on again in the gallop out. I think the added distance [of the Louisiana Derby] is only going to help him.”

Asked how he expects Saturday's race to unfold, Talamo said, “The race looks like it can almost be the exact same setup as the Risen Star. Rightandjust [Awesome Again] is a quick horse and I'm sure he's going to be in front, and unless something happens and nobody goes to the front, I'll go up and take it. If not, I'll be content to just track him.”

He continued, “I also really love his post because, if somebody goes out there, he is content to settle in second or third, too. Hopefully, we can just get a good trip. I think it'll be one of those races that, whoever gets the right trip, and from the quarter-pole home, we'll see who is the best. I really think the trip is going to suit Midnight Bourbon.”

A winner second time out going a mile at Ellis last August, the $525,000 KEESEP yearling purchase was runner-up in Churchill's GIII Iroquois S. before rounding out 2020 with a third in the GI Champagne S. Oct. 10.

“He's a big horse, but very athletic,” said Talamo. “Normally, a horse like that, it takes him a stride or two to get going. It's really amazing how good of a gate horse he is. He breaks very sharp for a horse that big. He's really smooth to ride. And he's one of those horses that you just try to be a good passenger and let him do the rest.”

The post Mandaloun Looks to Solidify Claim in Louisiana Derby appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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This Side Up: Seconds Out for the Next Round

No getting away from it: even 107 previous runnings, a million bucks and 170 starting points can't dress up the recent misfortunes of the GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby as a springboard to the first Saturday in May.

Maybe that's because it falls between stools, in terms of scheduling, the previous cycle of rehearsals having left trainers scope for one more start before the GI Kentucky Derby. Not many around, nowadays, who'd even be thinking about running again with just six weeks to go. Credit to the Fair Grounds team, then, for their initiative in stretching out all three legs of their trial series last year. If the old school liked to give these adolescent horses a deeper racetrack grounding, that was largely because of the extreme test awaiting them against 19 rivals going flat out through 10 furlongs at Churchill. Now that the Louisiana Derby falls only a few strides short of that distance, however, trainers have the chance to draw on a deeper seam while remaining on the lighter race schedule that's now so fashionable.

Following the postponement of the main event last year, of course, this will be the first test of the new bridge over the gap. As such, the opportunity is there to open out a four-cornered Derby–following a nearly mechanical sequence of spectacular auditions by Greatest Honour (Tapit), Essential Quality (Tapit), Life Is Good (Into Mischief) and Concert Tour (Street Sense)–into a pentagon.

The three local protagonists, having filled the podium in both the GIII Lecomte S. and GII Risen Star S., have left each other the door ajar for a breakout performance. True, they have a Californian shipper to deal with this time. And we've seen those wipe out the Oaklawn horses with a 1-2 in the GII Rebel S. last weekend, and also chase home Essential Quality before that.

That is exactly what Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow) did at the Breeders' Cup. He was 94-1, but there was no fluke about that performance and I retain plenty of hope for the “Chuck” fairytale–he was the last horse sold by the late Edward A. Cox Jr., remember, pinhooked for $17,000 before his half-brother became Mitole (Eskendereya)–even if his reappearance form has meanwhile come to appear a little porous.

In terms of the hometown horses, there's a nice symmetry: on the one hand, Proxy (Tapit) could give his sire three of the top five chances in his quest for the Derby that would crown his resume; on the other, here's Mandaloun (Into Mischief) bidding to consolidate the emergence of a no-less-remarkable stallion as a Classic influence, following Authentic (Into Mischief) last year and now Life Is Good.

Obviously this evolution, with the improvement of Into Mischief's books, has long been a pretty blatant trend. The real straw in the wind was Audible, out of Gilded Time mare and conceived at $20,000, when a strong-finishing third to Justify (Scat Daddy) in the 2018 Derby. Mandaloun obviously has a lot more to work with, in the seeding of his Juddmonte family.

The question now is whether Into Mischief might even keep building in the manner of Danehill and Mr. Prospector, breed-shaping stallions who wildly diversified what started out as a speed brand. Even as it is, however, there are valuable lessons in what he's doing.

Because if Into Mischief is getting stock to carry their speed, that is not necessarily simply down to classy two-turn mares. The dam of Audible, remember, won a few sprints running for $4,000 or $5,000 at Mountaineer and Finger Lakes. So really, if we recognize Into Mischief as an extremely important horse, we also have to take on board an extremely important message–and that's to view pedigrees in the round, as a composite of diverse, entwined strands.

Where are these horses finding their stamina? Well, just in back-of-an-envelope terms, let's remind ourselves that the first three dams of Into Mischief's sire Harlan's Holiday are by Affirmed, Honest Pleasure and Princequillo. The latter, obviously a welcome linchpin in any pedigree, also surfaces behind Into Mischief's dam, the celebrated Leslie's Lady (Tricky Creek): her granddam is by One For All, whose damsire was Princequillo. (And moreover out of a very gifted mare by a monster European staying influence in Sea-Bird (Fr). And while her own sire never gets enough credit, Tricky Creek's first three dams, similarly, were by His Majesty, Nijinsky and Swaps. (The latter, moreover, enters the equation through none other than the Darby Dan foundation mare Soaring.)

Obviously, there are plenty of people who will persist in telling you that Leslie's Lady has produced Into Mischief, Mendelssohn (Scat Daddy) and Beholder (Henny Hughes) through some occult alchemy with the Storm Cat line. We still await a coherent explanation why we should disregard all the other illustrious names across the pedigree. Happily, the $8.2 million given in 2019 for a yearling filly out of Leslie's Lady by American Pharoah, obviously an entirely different sire-line, confirms that Leslie's Lady–by a sire who ended up standing at $2,500 in New Mexico, and a mare once claimed for $5,000–is getting due credit where it counts.

The way things are going, nobody could be too surprised if Into Mischief were to end up someday siring a Belmont winner. For now, that remains Tapit's preserve, and the pair of them meanwhile are closing on the Derby in a gripping contest of styles and status. The Louisiana Derby, then, is a skirmish within that wider battle, with Proxy borrowing Mandaloun's Risen Star trick by trying blinkers. It's another round in two separate bouts: one between the leading New Orleans sophomores; the other between two of their sires.

However things play out, let's absorb the rebuke of Into Mischief against all simplistic systemization. Pedigrees are not interstate highways. They're complex city grids, and we can only hope to reach our destination by ensuring that all possible routes maintain the quality regardless.

The post This Side Up: Seconds Out for the Next Round appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Equibase Analysis: Run Classic Poised To Provide Big Upset In Louisiana Derby

This Saturday's Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby is the first “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points system race to offer the winner enough points (100) to guarantee a start in the gate on the first Saturday in May. The winner's share of the $1 million isn't bad either, but in spite of those two incentives only eight horses were entered.

The two most accomplished runners, Mandaloun and Midnight Bourbon, have traded wins on the run up to this race. Midnight Bourbon won the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes in January but ended up third in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes four weeks later, that race won by Mandaloun.

Risen Star runner-up Proxy, who also finished second in the Lecomte, will attempt to turn the tables on his rivals. O Besos finished fourth and nearly six lengths behind third place finisher Midnight Bourbon in the Risen Star and may have his work cut out for him, as may both Rightandjust and Starrininmydreams, who finished sixth and ninth, respectively, in the race.

Hot Rod Charlie ships in from California off a big effort when beaten a neck and a nose for the win in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes and certainly fits with the best in this field. Last but certainly not least, Run Classic steps into stakes competition off a maiden win over the track in his second career start.

It is still early in the season, so much so that horses which have only run a couple of times can win Kentucky Derby prep races like the Louisiana Derby. This was evidenced last weekend when Concert Tour won the Rebel Stakes in only the third start of his career and his first in a two-turn race. Run Classic has already run two turns so that is not a question and in that regard he is one step further along as compared to Concert Tour. Run Classic debuted in mid-January in a sprint and finished second of 10, earning a 94 Equibase Speed Figure in the process.

Stretched out to a mile and one-sixteenth for career start number two four weeks later, on the same day as the Risen Star, Run Classic stalked the pacesetter while third in the early stages, put in a quick burst to get to the front with an eighth of a mile to go, then coasted home to an easy three and one-quarter length win. Although he earned a 90 figure, I feel he could have run faster if need be.

Putting those figures in perspective, likely Louisiana Derby betting favorite Mandaloun earned a 97 figure winning the Risen Star. Being as Run Classic is more lightly raced he may have more improving to do, as compared to Mandaloun and others already proven competitive in similar races. Specifically, making his third career start and second in a route, Run Classic has a lot of potential to leap frog over the more logical contenders and post the upset to win. That is exactly what By My Standards did to post the upset win in this race in 2019 at odds of 22/1 when winning the race after breaking his maiden in a route over the track one race earlier. By My Standards was trained by Bret Calhoun, who trains Run Classic, and that is precisely why I'm choosing Run Classic to post the upset win in the Louisiana Derby.

Hot Rod Charlie entered the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last November off a maiden win in a route. Then in the Juvenile and making his second consecutive start in a dirt route, Hot Rod Charlie finished second at odds of 94 to 1, earning a career-best 100 in the process. Returning for his 3-year-old campaign at the end of January, Hot Rod Charlie proved his Breeders' Cup effort to be no fluke as he closed from fourth after stumbling at the start, missing the win by inches in a three horse photo. The 97 figure earned can logically by improved upon in his second start off a layoff so Hot Rod Charlie deserves strong consideration as a contender to win this race.

Mandaloun won the first two races of his career, both sprints, with a 97 figure in the best of the pair. Stretched out to two-turns for the first time in the Lecomte Stakes, Mandaloun was really no threat for wire-to-wire winner Midnight Bourbon but did finish just a head behind runner-up Proxy, perhaps because the winner got an uncontested lead and also because the winner had the experience of running two-turn races previously. Improving off the experience, Mandaloun turned the tables on Midnight Bourbon to win the Risen Star clearly by one and one- half lengths, equaling the 97 figure earned one month earlier. Since the distance of the Louisiana Derby is only one-sixteenth of a mile farther than the Risen Star, I don't see any issue with Mandaloun running his best here. Whether that best effort is good enough to beat the improving Run Classic and Hot Rod Charlie is the reason why this race will be a great one to watch and wager on.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Midnight Bourbon (99), O Besos (94), Proxy (97), Rightandjust (90) and Starrininmydreams (88).

Win Contenders:
Run Classic
Hot Rod Charlie
Mandaloun

Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby – Grade 2
Race14 at Fair Grounds
Saturday, March 20 – Post Time 6:44 PM E.T.
One Mile and Three Sixteenths
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1 Million

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